How the public view the final three – politicalbetting.com
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How the public view the final three – politicalbetting.com
At the moment most of the polling focus on the Conservative leadership contest has been about views of first MPs and then the Tory Party membership. The latter of course will decide between the two agreed by the parliamentary party and we should get that tomorrow afternoon.
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Comments
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First like, er, Truss.
F*ck!1 -
Members about to elect the one most unpopular with voters.
Oh well, at least it helps confirm that Johnson is wrong and we do not live in some quasi-presidential direct democracy with mandates from the people.
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Conservative is well and truly Trussed up.0
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And yet Liz Truss will be the next PM.
Go figure.0 -
Could we actually see the Tories at the sort of figure Angus Reid gave to Labour?numbertwelve said:And yet Liz Truss will be the next PM.
Go figure.0 -
Perhaps I am being unkind, but Tory MPs, and members, to varying degrees appear to want a Boris type, without the downsides of Boris. Not realising its a package deal. They want competent Borisism.rottenborough said:Members about to elect the one most unpopular with voters.
Oh well, at least it helps confirm that Johnson is wrong and we do not live in some quasi-presidential direct democracy with mandates from the people.
Truss, for whatever reason, seems to have become the continuity Boris candidate (despite disavowing the economic measures of the Boris government, by pretending the Chancellor could have done it without the PM's consent or something).
So on that basis she would appear to be what they want, perhaps presuming she would have the same popularity as Boris, despite not, in style or delivery, being similar to him at all.0 -
Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM3
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MPs need to caucus to make sure Truss is not in the final two
I like some of her policies, I admire her free thinking, but my God she would crash to a dreadful defeat, she would lose the Red Wall and her Zeal-of-the-Converted Brexiteering would lose the Blue Wall
She could gift Labour a majority that would last for two terms. No0 -
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️IshmaelZ said:
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.Leon said:
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so onCookie said:
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.kle4 said:One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things that can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. Or building a snowman with them in the winter. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18C, cloudy, grey skies and boring.0 -
Nigel Farage on GB News: Tories heading for a catastrophic loss at the next GE with Truss as leader.0
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I'm wondering how solid the assumption is that Truss is popular in the conservative party; and how much she has the potential to crash and burn as the leadership contest goes on (given her previous mishaps in the past few weeks). I don't think it is certain that she will win at all.1
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Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?BartholomewRoberts said:
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️IshmaelZ said:
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.Leon said:
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so onCookie said:
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.kle4 said:One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
I don't want a street, just a vague idea0 -
The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.0 -
There is no election-winning question to which the answer is Liz Truss.
Apart from "How did the Tories dodge a bullet by not putting to the membership?"0 -
There is.MarqueeMark said:There is no election-winning question to which the answer is Liz Truss.
Apart from "How did the Tories dodge a bullet by not putting to the membership?"
'Who is the most likely candidate to see Labour win the next election?'1 -
Who?ydoethur said:
Could we actually see the Tories at the sort of figure Angus Reid gave to Labour?numbertwelve said:And yet Liz Truss will be the next PM.
Go figure.0 -
He's not wrong there.Andy_JS said:Nigel Farage on GB News: Tories heading for a catastrophic loss at the next GE with Truss as leader.
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NW England.Leon said:
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?BartholomewRoberts said:
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️IshmaelZ said:
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.Leon said:
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so onCookie said:
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.kle4 said:One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
I don't want a street, just a vague idea
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.0 -
Heard some cracking stuff on LT today. Obviously not for this website but seems like she likes some of the things Joanna Lumley does.MarqueeMark said:
There is no election-winning question to which the answer is Liz Truss.
Apart from "How did the Tories dodge a bullet by not putting to the membership?"0 -
A master of understatement HYUFDHYUFD said:Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
“a bit of a risk” is me asking for extra hot salsa on my burrito.
Making Liz Truss PM is a megacolossal risk. It could consign the Tories to one of their very worst defeats. I could see it even lead to the ignominy of losing an 80 seat majority to a Labour majority.0 -
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/but-pbangus-reid-has-the-gap-widening-to-13-points/Benpointer said:
Who?ydoethur said:
Could we actually see the Tories at the sort of figure Angus Reid gave to Labour?numbertwelve said:And yet Liz Truss will be the next PM.
Go figure.
And that was one of Labour's better performances with that pollster!0 -
Those aren't wing sof the Tory party. They *are* the Tory party.MrEd said:The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.1 -
No, there are others. Believe it or not, you can believe in Brexit but not be a frother like those two.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Those aren't wing sof the Tory party. They *are* the Tory party.MrEd said:The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.0 -
Perhaps having Farage against her will work to her advantage in government by making it safe for Cameroon Remainers to get behind her even as she follows a hard Brexit course.Andy_JS said:Nigel Farage on GB News: Tories heading for a catastrophic loss at the next GE with Truss as leader.
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Yes please.Leon said:MPs need to caucus to make sure Truss is not in the final two
I like some of her policies, I admire her free thinking, but my God she would crash to a dreadful defeat, she would lose the Red Wall and her Zeal-of-the-Converted Brexiteering would lose the Blue Wall
She could gift Labour a majority that would last for two terms. No
I only worry what further damage she will do to the country in the meantime.0 -
Surprising the tories have got themselves into this position. And for some reason some MPs think Truss is the answer to somehow save their seats
They’ve literally gone for the worst candidate0 -
rottenborough said:
You can take the man out of the KGB's Room 101, but you can't take Room 101 out of the man.CatMan said:
Didn't he come to a meeting with Angela Merkel with a dog, knowing that she was afraid of them?kle4 said:
Turning the tables on him. I read once Putin is often very late for things, as a tactic.williamglenn said:Erdogan leaves Putin waiting, and he doesn’t look happy about it:
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1549472588035932160
(As I read something I can now only vaguely recall, on the internet, I of course not commit it to memory as a fact).
I wonder if US intelligence knows his deepest, darkest fear?
Buttons?
Lightening?
Cabbage Patch dolls?
? . 1 -
No, there are too few of them left and her personality anyway doesn't suggest someone who will stand up to her backers.
Top tip for betting on Tory MP elections. Never underestimate the stupidity of Tory MPs.williamglenn said:
Perhaps having Farage against her will work to her advantage in government by making it safe for Cameroon Remainers to get behind her even as she follows a hard Brexit course.Andy_JS said:Nigel Farage on GB News: Tories heading for a catastrophic loss at the next GE with Truss as leader.
0 -
The problem is we all see these things as mishaps. But I think the people who will put her in charge of this country don’t see it as mishaps. She’s “our Liz”, the great low tax, low regulation, Brexit Boudicca. The more she drones on about these things the more they’ll see her as a classic Thatcherite Tory against that nasty backstabbing high tax Rishi.darkage said:I'm wondering how solid the assumption is that Truss is popular in the conservative party; and how much she has the potential to crash and burn as the leadership contest goes on (given her previous mishaps in the past few weeks). I don't think it is certain that she will win at all.
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The Tories want the one who can most convincingly impersonate Margaret Thatcher.
Mordaunt seemed to play the role OK for a bit. But she was upstaged at the audition.
In short. They want Maggie back.
Not much evidence anyone else does.2 -
If they pick her it'll because they no longer care about anything except indulging themselves. Another cycle of spending a lengthy period in opposition, until they get bored enough of it to be willing to compromise with the voters, is the likely result.HYUFD said:Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
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The Cameroon Remainers would have to go through some astounding mental gymnastics for that to work.williamglenn said:
Perhaps having Farage against her will work to her advantage in government by making it safe for Cameroon Remainers to get behind her even as she follows a hard Brexit course.Andy_JS said:Nigel Farage on GB News: Tories heading for a catastrophic loss at the next GE with Truss as leader.
1 -
Is that a unicorn or a Monoclonius?MoonRabbit said:rottenborough said:
You can take the man out of the KGB's Room 101, but you can't take Room 101 out of the man.CatMan said:
Didn't he come to a meeting with Angela Merkel with a dog, knowing that she was afraid of them?kle4 said:
Turning the tables on him. I read once Putin is often very late for things, as a tactic.williamglenn said:Erdogan leaves Putin waiting, and he doesn’t look happy about it:
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1549472588035932160
(As I read something I can now only vaguely recall, on the internet, I of course not commit it to memory as a fact).
I wonder if US intelligence knows his deepest, darkest fear?
Buttons?
Lightening?
Cabbage Patch dolls? ? .0 -
For some reason, that picture is quite disturbing but I can't explain in words whyMoonRabbit said:rottenborough said:
You can take the man out of the KGB's Room 101, but you can't take Room 101 out of the man.CatMan said:
Didn't he come to a meeting with Angela Merkel with a dog, knowing that she was afraid of them?kle4 said:
Turning the tables on him. I read once Putin is often very late for things, as a tactic.williamglenn said:Erdogan leaves Putin waiting, and he doesn’t look happy about it:
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1549472588035932160
(As I read something I can now only vaguely recall, on the internet, I of course not commit it to memory as a fact).
I wonder if US intelligence knows his deepest, darkest fear?
Buttons?
Lightening?
Cabbage Patch dolls? ? .0 -
Truss 👎👎👎👎👎6
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.
Agreed, she is great isn't she? 😍numbertwelve said:
The problem is we all see these things as mishaps. But I think the people who will put her in charge of this country don’t see it as mishaps. She’s “our Liz”, the great low tax, low regulation, Brexit Boudicca. The more she drones on about these things the more they’ll see her as a classic Thatcherite Tory against that nasty backstabbing high tax Rishi.darkage said:I'm wondering how solid the assumption is that Truss is popular in the conservative party; and how much she has the potential to crash and burn as the leadership contest goes on (given her previous mishaps in the past few weeks). I don't think it is certain that she will win at all.
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They've literally not. Well, at least 75% of them haven't, so far.Razedabode said:Surprising the tories have got themselves into this position. And for some reason some MPs think Truss is the answer to somehow save their seats
They’ve literally gone for the worst candidate
When it comes to the membership that might well be different.0 -
Indeed.Stark_Dawning said:
The Cameroon Remainers would have to go through some astounding mental gymnastics for that to work.williamglenn said:
Perhaps having Farage against her will work to her advantage in government by making it safe for Cameroon Remainers to get behind her even as she follows a hard Brexit course.Andy_JS said:Nigel Farage on GB News: Tories heading for a catastrophic loss at the next GE with Truss as leader.
0 -
Betfair next prime minister
2.12 Liz Truss 47%
2.52 Rishi Sunak 40%
7.8 Penny Mordaunt 13%
410 Keir Starmer
530 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.08 Liz Truss 48%
2.54 Rishi Sunak 39%
7.6 Penny Mordaunt 13%
To be in final two
1.02 Rishi Sunak 98%
1.24 Liz Truss 81%
4.5 Penny Mordaunt 22%0 -
Just sad the tories spent years ridiculing Labour for their Corbyn decision, yet they are about to do the same themselves.
Why can’t they see it?0 -
I think that's a good analysis. I suspect most of the party would never vote for RS a regardless because he is seen as too slick and clever. If it is Truss, they will convince themselves that the country wants a rerun of Maggie and she is it.numbertwelve said:
The problem is we all see these things as mishaps. But I think the people who will put her in charge of this country don’t see it as mishaps. She’s “our Liz”, the great low tax, low regulation, Brexit Boudicca. The more she drones on about these things the more they’ll see her as a classic Thatcherite Tory against that nasty backstabbing high tax Rishi.darkage said:I'm wondering how solid the assumption is that Truss is popular in the conservative party; and how much she has the potential to crash and burn as the leadership contest goes on (given her previous mishaps in the past few weeks). I don't think it is certain that she will win at all.
0 -
FPT - there's definitely skulduggery going on. Truss didn't get all those extra votes from Tom Tugendhat. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunak's true support is around the 130 MP mark and he's been playing with 10-15 MPs here and there. He's been creeping up ever so steadily whilst not actually crossing the line, keeping others hoping that they all have a chance of making the final too.
It's possible Gove could do a deal with Sunak and whip Badenoch's votes to all fall in line with him and Penny, who is more beatable, but otherwise her votes should go more to Truss.
Personally, I think Truss will make it. She wouldn't have pulled out of tonight's debates, together with Rishi, if they didn't think they had the numbers at the final count.0 -
I’d probably lay Starmer at those odds.DecrepiterJohnL said:Betfair next prime minister
2.12 Liz Truss 47%
2.52 Rishi Sunak 40%
7.8 Penny Mordaunt 13%
410 Keir Starmer
530 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.08 Liz Truss 48%
2.54 Rishi Sunak 39%
7.6 Penny Mordaunt 13%
To be in final two
1.02 Rishi Sunak 98%
1.24 Liz Truss 81%
4.5 Penny Mordaunt 22%
1 -
Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet.
In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third.
If she makes the top two I suspect she wins.
But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet.
Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.0 -
All that is true and fair enough. But the tories also like winners rather than losers. Sunak looks more like a winner to me.numbertwelve said:
The problem is we all see these things as mishaps. But I think the people who will put her in charge of this country don’t see it as mishaps. She’s “our Liz”, the great low tax, low regulation, Brexit Boudicca. The more she drones on about these things the more they’ll see her as a classic Thatcherite Tory against that nasty backstabbing high tax Rishi.darkage said:I'm wondering how solid the assumption is that Truss is popular in the conservative party; and how much she has the potential to crash and burn as the leadership contest goes on (given her previous mishaps in the past few weeks). I don't think it is certain that she will win at all.
0 -
I suspect the average Tory member genuinely cannot understand why the nation as a whole wouldn't think Truss is the best candidate.pigeon said:
If they pick her it'll because they no longer care about anything except indulging themselves. Another cycle of spending a lengthy period in opposition, until they get bored enough of it to be willing to compromise with the voters, is the likely result.HYUFD said:Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
We all do it of course: 'surely everyone thinks like I do'. The issues arrises from the self-selecting nature of the party membership (similar issue with Labour).4 -
How do you whip a secret ballot?Casino_Royale said:FPT - there's definitely skulduggery going on. Truss didn't get all those extra votes from Tom Tugendhat. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunak's true support is around the 130 MP mark and he's been playing with 10-15 MPs here and there. He's been creeping up ever so steadily whilst not actually crossing the line, keeping others hoping that they all have a chance of making the final too.
It's possible Gove could do a deal with Sunak and whip Badenoch's votes to all fall in line with him and Penny, who is more beatable, but otherwise her votes should go more to Truss.
Personally, I think Truss will make it. She wouldn't have pulled out of tonight's debates, together with Rishi, if they didn't think they had the numbers at the final count.0 -
I believe I have diagnosed your problemBartholomewRoberts said:
NW England.Leon said:
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?BartholomewRoberts said:
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️IshmaelZ said:
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.Leon said:
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so onCookie said:
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.kle4 said:One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
I don't want a street, just a vague idea
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
https://vividmaps.com/annual-sunshine-hours-map-of-world/
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
5 -
So what's going on?
Do Conservatives not know that the public think Truss is a duffer?
Or are they perfectly aware, but have reached the kind of been-in-power-too-long decadance where they don't care?1 -
Ironically, I believe it is lesser-evilism that has led them here. So concerned about the candidate they wanted to stop, that they didn't stop to think about the candidate they wanted to win.Razedabode said:Surprising the tories have got themselves into this position. And for some reason some MPs think Truss is the answer to somehow save their seats
They’ve literally gone for the worst candidate5 -
No excuse for the MPs though.Benpointer said:
I suspect the average Tory member genuinely cannot understand why the nation as a whole wouldn't think Truss is the best candidate.pigeon said:
If they pick her it'll because they no longer care about anything except indulging themselves. Another cycle of spending a lengthy period in opposition, until they get bored enough of it to be willing to compromise with the voters, is the likely result.HYUFD said:Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
We all do it of course: 'surely everyone thinks like I do'. The issues arrises from the self-selecting nature of the party membership (similar issue with Labour).0 -
Well, 24% of Tory MPs at the moment.MarqueeMark said:
No excuse for the MPs though.Benpointer said:
I suspect the average Tory member genuinely cannot understand why the nation as a whole wouldn't think Truss is the best candidate.pigeon said:
If they pick her it'll because they no longer care about anything except indulging themselves. Another cycle of spending a lengthy period in opposition, until they get bored enough of it to be willing to compromise with the voters, is the likely result.HYUFD said:Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
We all do it of course: 'surely everyone thinks like I do'. The issues arrises from the self-selecting nature of the party membership (similar issue with Labour).
They are, I suspect, more of the 'this is what I believe and I need to find a way to force it through' mindset.0 -
I reckon Truss could wilt very badly under the scrutiny of weeks of coverage. She's going to get a rough ride from Mordaunt backers.dixiedean said:Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet.
In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third.
If she makes the top two I suspect she wins.
But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet.
Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.1 -
I think that is a fair assessment. Will be fascinating to see how long the honeymoon lasts. I don’t think there’ll be oneLostPassword said:
Ironically, I believe it is lesser-evilism that has led them here. So concerned about the candidate they wanted to stop, that they didn't stop to think about the candidate they wanted to win.Razedabode said:Surprising the tories have got themselves into this position. And for some reason some MPs think Truss is the answer to somehow save their seats
They’ve literally gone for the worst candidate
0 -
I think the members are a scapegoat.MarqueeMark said:There is no election-winning question to which the answer is Liz Truss.
Apart from "How did the Tories dodge a bullet by not putting to the membership?"
They wanted Kemi. It's the MPs who are putting forward Truss.2 -
I know this is of no general value to the conversation, but I've never clocked the periodic table style logo for Opinium before. It's kinda cool.0
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Because there's nothing remotely comparable in the two decisions.Razedabode said:Just sad the tories spent years ridiculing Labour for their Corbyn decision, yet they are about to do the same themselves.
Why can’t they see it?
Labour were in Opposition and had to try and make themselves more popular than the Tories. The Tories are already in Government and have an opportunity to get stuff done for the next couple of years.
Labour were narrowly short of getting into office and elected Corbyn then kept him on for not one but two elections. Tories are already in office and are due losing as a matter of when, not if.
Finally if the Tories stand for increasing taxes on those who work to a 74 year high, in order to further bloat our welfare budget for those who don't work, then what's the point in the Tories? They deserve to lose if so.
Having said that, I'll sell my principles for £5000 it appears, so go Rishi! But I won't vote for his party at the next election.0 -
It’s notable that several likely Conservative voters here have developed a new appreciation for Truss, ever since … this afternoon when she became favourite. (Previously, I think Barty was her only enthusiast.)HYUFD said:Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
That you have yet to succumb to this irrational optimism has sent you up considerably in my estimation (for what that’s worth).7 -
We've had a bit of rain here in the SE. A bit more than a dusting. Lots of promise (thunder, lightning etc) but no significant volume of rain. Won't really help the parched yellow ground.
1 -
If so, shall we have a sweep on how many headers we get from OGH telling us he backed Sunak at 250/1? ;-)MarqueeMark said:
I reckon Truss could wilt very badly under the scrutiny of weeks of coverage. She's going to get a rough ride from Mordaunt backers.dixiedean said:Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet.
In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third.
If she makes the top two I suspect she wins.
But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet.
Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.0 -
Judging by the last hmmm decade or more, I'm starting to think that the average Tory MP has rather poor judgement.Razedabode said:Surprising the tories have got themselves into this position. And for some reason some MPs think Truss is the answer to somehow save their seats
They’ve literally gone for the worst candidate0 -
If I were Mark Francois, I would raise an eyebrow at being lectured by a UK Trumpton.MrEd said:No, there are others. Believe it or not, you can believe in Brexit but not be a frother like those two.
OnlyLivingBoy said:
Those aren't wing sof the Tory party. They *are* the Tory party.MrEd said:The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.0 -
Yes, but.MarqueeMark said:
I reckon Truss could wilt very badly under the scrutiny of weeks of coverage. She's going to get a rough ride from Mordaunt backers.dixiedean said:Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet.
In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third.
If she makes the top two I suspect she wins.
But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet.
Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.
She's already got the Mail virtually publicly masturbating. The other newspapers will fall into line faced with the "Socialist" Sunak or "woke" Mordaunt.
She wilted pretty badly in the first debate.
That didn't seem to hurt her.0 -
First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?0
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Based on what you have just seen, are there any candidates you think definitely shouldn't be Prime Minister?
Swing voters:
Liz Truss 45%
Rishi Sunak 27%
Penny Mordaunt 26%
Opinium0 -
And most votes will probably be returned early, before she could wilt. And those early voters will have been hearing 'Sunak has no chance with Members' for a couple of weeks.dixiedean said:
Yes, but.MarqueeMark said:
I reckon Truss could wilt very badly under the scrutiny of weeks of coverage. She's going to get a rough ride from Mordaunt backers.dixiedean said:Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet.
In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third.
If she makes the top two I suspect she wins.
But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet.
Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.
She's already got the Mail virtually publicly masturbating. The other newspapers will fall into line faced with the "Socialist" Sunak or "woke" Mordaunt.
She wilted pretty badly in the first debate.
That didn't seem to hurt her.
Heck, people sometimes seem to do that just in case they might change their minds later. Do it early in a campaign and you can switch off, no deal with thorny questions of whether who we back is right, since it doesn't matter, too late to change it now.0 -
"The Tories are already in Government and have an opportunity to get stuff done for the next couple of years."BartholomewRoberts said:
Because there's nothing remotely comparable in the two decisions.Razedabode said:Just sad the tories spent years ridiculing Labour for their Corbyn decision, yet they are about to do the same themselves.
Why can’t they see it?
Labour were in Opposition and had to try and make themselves more popular than the Tories. The Tories are already in Government and have an opportunity to get stuff done for the next couple of years.
Labour were narrowly short of getting into office and elected Corbyn then kept him on for not one but two elections. Tories are already in office and are due losing as a matter of when, not if.
Finally if the Tories stand for increasing taxes on those who work to a 74 year high, in order to further bloat our welfare budget for those who don't work, then what's the point in the Tories? They deserve to lose if so.
Having said that, I'll sell my principles for £5000 it appears, so go Rishi! But I won't vote for his party at the next election.
What, you mean like the wonderful stuff they have managed to do in the last 12 years?
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1549337977704402954?s=20&t=e2wxanFxfxdVlOnQG4lrjg
0 -
To pick one of the few candidates worse than the incumbent is really quite an impressive feat.glw said:
Judging by the last hmmm decade or more, I'm starting to think that the average Tory MP has rather poor judgement.Razedabode said:Surprising the tories have got themselves into this position. And for some reason some MPs think Truss is the answer to somehow save their seats
They’ve literally gone for the worst candidate0 -
You might be right, but either way I'm presently sat enjoying the weather still with a beer and have had a great couple of days with the kids playing in the evening in our pool. That's a memory I hope I and they will keep for a long time. Far more than just another random day of meh.Leon said:
I believe I have diagnosed your problemBartholomewRoberts said:
NW England.Leon said:
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?BartholomewRoberts said:
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️IshmaelZ said:
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.Leon said:
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so onCookie said:
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.kle4 said:One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
I don't want a street, just a vague idea
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
https://vividmaps.com/annual-sunshine-hours-map-of-world/
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
Would I want this weather all day, every day, for months on end? Hell no! But is it nice and glorious for an exception and we should it enjoy it for the precious little time we can enjoy it? Absolutely!
Its a bit like I have in-laws in the Rockies in Canada. They hate the snow, they have 6 months of it and have to clear their footpath almost daily (failure to clear the footpath outside your home will result in you being fined). However if we get snow in this country, I love it. Making snowmen with the kids is again a wonderful thing.
That which is rare, is more valuable. It applies to the weather as well as economics.1 -
If Truss loses big the Francois/JRM wing would likely be most of what is left, the redwall MPs and most of the remaining London MPs having lost their seats to Labour and most of the Home counties Tory Remain seats going to the LDs and their last Scottish seats going SNPMrEd said:The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.0 -
She did vote Remain.Gardenwalker said:First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
0 -
Oh Farage cares about the size of the gap to the right of the party and whether it's big enough for him to slither back into itGardenwalker said:First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
3 -
I think this is already set and there just isn’t the time between voting rounds for things like this to take hold
Truss will overtake Pendolino comfortably tomorrow0 -
Funny enough the one thing that makes me think Truss could do better than expected as PM is the total consensus on here that she's a dud.2
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I don't really see how. I know she is a born again Brexiter, but have the others actually differed from her in any way on Brexit issues?Gardenwalker said:First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
It seems to come down to a feeling that the JRM crowd trust her judgement more, rather than that the others are not very Brexity (notwithstanding some laughable attempts to suggest Sunak was a remainer traitor).0 -
Apart from the two who actually voted for it!Gardenwalker said:First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
0 -
?Gardenwalker said:First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
She voted Remain.
The other two were Brexiters long before it was fashionable.0 -
That's possible. There is a core of Sunak supporters (Hancock, williamson etc) who could be replied upon to be reliable enough to switch votes on demand to another candidate as required. They will generally be ex-Minister types who hope for another chance .
If that is the game, who does Rishi not want to face? The immediate answer would be Truss. It raises the obvious question - why did he instruct some MPs to pile into Truss? - but it's clear from the polling he couldn't rely on KB making it to the top three. She would have represented a bigger threat than Truss. Far better to get her out of the way and not risk the ERG / RW MPs swinging behind her vote.
So, if you view things like this, the value bet may be PM. Shank "lends" her MPs confident she'll crash as she is seen as woke and a potential liar. It doesn't guarantee his success and it's a risk but, given the rules, it's the better option.Casino_Royale said:FPT - there's definitely skulduggery going on. Truss didn't get all those extra votes from Tom Tugendhat. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunak's true support is around the 130 MP mark and he's been playing with 10-15 MPs here and there. He's been creeping up ever so steadily whilst not actually crossing the line, keeping others hoping that they all have a chance of making the final too.
It's possible Gove could do a deal with Sunak and whip Badenoch's votes to all fall in line with him and Penny, who is more beatable, but otherwise her votes should go more to Truss.
Personally, I think Truss will make it. She wouldn't have pulled out of tonight's debates, together with Rishi, if they didn't think they had the numbers at the final count.1 -
'Doing better than expected' is only a positive if the expectation is not already very low.dodrade said:Funny enough the one thing that makes me think Truss could do better than expected as PM is the total consensus on here that she's a dud.
I think she has some basic competence, and I've never really gotten why she provoked such ire, but given who her most enthusiastic backers are, and how she might reward them, it is now a big worry for me.0 -
I don't actually think she will be worse than Boris, but I sure as hell don't think that she's their best option.Foxy said:
To pick one of the few candidates worse than the incumbent is really quite an impressive feat.glw said:
Judging by the last hmmm decade or more, I'm starting to think that the average Tory MP has rather poor judgement.Razedabode said:Surprising the tories have got themselves into this position. And for some reason some MPs think Truss is the answer to somehow save their seats
They’ve literally gone for the worst candidate0 -
Well exactly, they have the option of more of the same crap of raising taxes with Sunak, when he's already planned and pre-announced he'll give more grey vote bribes at the next election.Benpointer said:
"The Tories are already in Government and have an opportunity to get stuff done for the next couple of years."BartholomewRoberts said:
Because there's nothing remotely comparable in the two decisions.Razedabode said:Just sad the tories spent years ridiculing Labour for their Corbyn decision, yet they are about to do the same themselves.
Why can’t they see it?
Labour were in Opposition and had to try and make themselves more popular than the Tories. The Tories are already in Government and have an opportunity to get stuff done for the next couple of years.
Labour were narrowly short of getting into office and elected Corbyn then kept him on for not one but two elections. Tories are already in office and are due losing as a matter of when, not if.
Finally if the Tories stand for increasing taxes on those who work to a 74 year high, in order to further bloat our welfare budget for those who don't work, then what's the point in the Tories? They deserve to lose if so.
Having said that, I'll sell my principles for £5000 it appears, so go Rishi! But I won't vote for his party at the next election.
What, you mean like the wonderful stuff they have managed to do in the last 12 years?
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1549337977704402954?s=20&t=e2wxanFxfxdVlOnQG4lrjg
Or turn a page on that crap with the Tories.
If they vote for Sunak I'll thank Ladbrokes and the Tories for my payout, but I'll be tempted to sign up to join the Lib Dems. I've had enough of that crap.0 -
NOM 1.79
Con Maj 3.8
Lab Maj 4.5
When’s crossover?0 -
Strange, hot, ethereal winds have suddenly whipped up in my bit of Midlands and the sky is a weird red bruised colour.
End of Days stuff.1 -
Trussers have to hope that she can beat Mordaunt - not a slam dunk - and then go on to persuade the membership to choose purity over electability.
I reckon there’s still only about 30-40% chance of her going all the way to Number 10.0 -
Nigel Farage wants your attention, so of course he has to care about the biggest news story in British politics. Having a continuity Boris candidate win the leadership makes it a bit harder to run with the stab-in-the-back myth, so establishing that Truss is a vote-losing loser in contrast to super-Boris that Farage helped into office by standing aside at GE2019, is a necessary precondition for being able to say "I told you so," later on.Gardenwalker said:First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
The question is: why should we care what Farage thinks any more?1 -
In all fairness to him, @HYUFD has been completely consistent on this point.Nigelb said:
It’s notable that several likely Conservative voters here have developed a new appreciation for Truss, ever since … this afternoon when she became favourite. (Previously, I think Barty was her only enthusiast.)HYUFD said:Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
That you have yet to succumb to this irrational optimism has sent you up considerably in my estimation (for what that’s worth).2 -
As a party member I am annoyed that I don’t have Kemi in the last two. She seemed to be the type of leader I could get enthused about. Now I have Rishi (wife too rich), Penny (Walter Mitty Boris Lite) and Liz (slightly strange) to choose from. My kids liked Kemi too but now say there’s no point because Labour will walk it. Sigh.0
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Unfortunately yes.
But at risk of being replaced by a reinvigorated Reform party (if they get a decent team)HYUFD said:
If Truss loses big the Francois/JRM wing would likely be most of what is left, the redwall MPs and most of the remaining London MPs having lost their seats to Labour and most of the Home counties Tory Remain seats going to the LDsMrEd said:The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.0 -
If she’s Brexity enough for IDS, Rees-Mogg, Bill Cash and Mark Francois…Benpointer said:
She did vote Remain.Gardenwalker said:First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
0 -
If he were leader of the Tory party I'd vote Corbynite Labour ahead of them.Nigelb said:
But if the choice was between a party led by him and a party led by any of this lot - even Truss...0 -
This does appear to be the key.Benpointer said:
I suspect the average Tory member genuinely cannot understand why the nation as a whole wouldn't think Truss is the best candidate.pigeon said:
If they pick her it'll because they no longer care about anything except indulging themselves. Another cycle of spending a lengthy period in opposition, until they get bored enough of it to be willing to compromise with the voters, is the likely result.HYUFD said:Truss has Hague/IDS levels of appeal with voters it seems. Tory members taking a bit risk if they make her Tory Leader and PM
We all do it of course: 'surely everyone thinks like I do'. The issues arrises from the self-selecting nature of the party membership (similar issue with Labour).
I think parties are particularly prone to it the longer they are in office, when easy choices are long gone, and there isn't a conveniently recent other government to blame (try though they will). They get lazier and lazier, they conflate their interests with the nation's over and over, which excuses any poor action, behaviour or failure, because if they don't win, that's a disaster. And they presume, ever more easily, that what they want must be what the public want.0 -
Sunak wants to be "cooperative" with the EU over Northern Ireland. 👎kle4 said:
I don't really see how. I know she is a born again Brexiter, but have the others actually differed from her in any way on Brexit issues?Gardenwalker said:First, why does Nigel Farage care about Tory electability? Second, isn’t Truss the most Brexity candidate left?
It seems to come down to a feeling that the JRM crowd trust her judgement more, rather than that the others are not very Brexity (notwithstanding some laughable attempts to suggest Sunak was a remainer traitor).
Truss wants to be firm and has her NI Protocol Bill lined up and ready to go. 👍1 -
“sun-drenched Melbourne”Leon said:
I believe I have diagnosed your problemBartholomewRoberts said:
NW England.Leon said:
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?BartholomewRoberts said:
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️IshmaelZ said:
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.Leon said:
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so onCookie said:
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.kle4 said:One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does
snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
I don't want a street, just a vague idea
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
https://vividmaps.com/annual-sunshine-hours-map-of-world/
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
Roflcopter0 -
👍 Well done @HYUFD a landmark!HYUFD said:
If Truss loses big the Francois/JRM wing would likely be most of what is left, the redwall MPs and most of the remaining London MPs having lost their seats to Labour and most of the Home counties Tory Remain seats going to the LDsMrEd said:The current Conservative party continues to shoot itself in the foot with a double-barrelled shotgun.
It's truly time for a purge of the Mark Francois / JRM wings of the party.2 -
Oh and Liz will win. Penny is not experienced enough and Rishi has no usp at all - the type of middle manager we like but would be useless in the top job0
-
Guido makes this point today re the haste of the membership vote:
https://order-order.com/2022/07/19/cchqs-asap-timetable-begs-mps-to-ask-whats-the-point-in-hustings/kle4 said:
And most votes will probably be returned early, before she could wilt. And those early voters will have been hearing 'Sunak has no chance with Members' for a couple of weeks.dixiedean said:
Yes, but.MarqueeMark said:
I reckon Truss could wilt very badly under the scrutiny of weeks of coverage. She's going to get a rough ride from Mordaunt backers.dixiedean said:Liz Truss hasn't been elected yet.
In fact, she hasn't made the final two, and is still firmly in third.
If she makes the top two I suspect she wins.
But she hasn't sealed that deal quite yet.
Never underestimate the influence of the Daily Mail if she does though.
She's already got the Mail virtually publicly masturbating. The other newspapers will fall into line faced with the "Socialist" Sunak or "woke" Mordaunt.
She wilted pretty badly in the first debate.
That didn't seem to hurt her.
Heck, people sometimes seem to do that just in case they might change their minds later. Do it early in a campaign and you can switch off, no deal with thorny questions of whether who we back is right, since it doesn't matter, too late to change it now.0 -
Indeed. Enjoy!BartholomewRoberts said:
You might be right, but either way I'm presently sat enjoying the weather still with a beer and have had a great couple of days with the kids playing in the evening in our pool. That's a memory I hope I and they will keep for a long time. Far more than just another random day of meh.Leon said:
I believe I have diagnosed your problemBartholomewRoberts said:
NW England.Leon said:
Personal question: where do you live? In the UK?BartholomewRoberts said:
The Death Valley remark was a joke. 🤦♂️IshmaelZ said:
But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.BartholomewRoberts said:
Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.Leon said:
The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so onCookie said:
The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.kle4 said:One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.
Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.
I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
That takes true maturity and grace
On PB when I find myself acting like BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason
And by the way I believe BartholomewRoberts and HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.
Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.
People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.
I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍
Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
People die in heatwaves, people die in the cold. More people die due to cold than heat, does that mean people can't enjoy building a snowman when it does snow?
Why are you so allergic to things t hat can make people die? People can die due to viruses, heat, cold, boredom, and a plethora of other things its all part of the circle of life. Everyone dies, but enjoy yourself along the ride.
When I'm old and dying I hope I will not have dementia and will be able to look back and remember as a happy memory playing with my kids in a paddling pool in our garden in the glorious sunshine. I don't expect to look back and wish I had more days where its 18, grey skies and boring.
I don't want a street, just a vague idea
I have lived at various times in the NW, East Mids, West Mids, SW and SE of England plus as I said Melbourne, Aus - but mostly NW England.
It is North West England. One of the dreariest, unsunniest places in the entire world - no joke. Check this map
https://vividmaps.com/annual-sunshine-hours-map-of-world/
In terms of annual sun hours, NW England is one of the gloomiest places on the planet, up there with most of mainland Scotland, maritime Canada, northern Siberia, and Antarctica. And..... that's it, pretty much. Only the Aleutians and the Hebrides might be WORSE
It really is that bad. Greenland has more sun than Lancashire. Svalbard has more sun. Tierra del Fuego has more sun
And yet you grew up in sun-drenched Melbourne. I therefore submit that you have a deep emotional hunger - an Oedipal lust- for more sun, sun in any way, please please give me more sun even if it is 40C, and therefore even if it arrives via a deathly heatwave it is more than welcome, so you justify enjoying it (and rightly, in a way)
This might be a factor affecting your mood, which you have said is not the best at the moment
I absolutely empathise - genuinely - because I suffer from SAD. I crave sunshine and I am happier in sunny places, and I get depressed in sunless places, it is that simple
I suggest a move to Eastbourne, Phoenix, or Tivat
Would I want this weather all day, every day, for months on end? Hell no! But is it nice and glorious for an exception and we should it enjoy it for the precious little time we can enjoy it? Absolutely!
Its a bit like I have in-laws in the Rockies in Canada. They hate the snow, they have 6 months of it and have to clear their footpath almost daily (failure to clear the footpath outside your home will result in you being fined). However if we get snow in this country, I love it. Making snowmen with the kids is again a wonderful thing.
That which is rare, is more valuable. It applies to the weather as well as economics.
But, for your long term mental health and contentment, you might consider a move to the south of England, at least.... is my modest proposal
I've realised that one of the reasons I've been - generally, if not always - in a very benign mood these last three months is because I have spent it in almost total sunshine. From Nashville to New Orleans to Turkey to Greece to Tbilisi to Armenia to Montenegro, almost every morning I have woken up to warm or hot blue skies and wow, it improves the mood.
You might wake up feeling blue or groggy or frustrated or angsty but then you take your coffee and you shuffle out into the bright sweet light and you can't help thinking, your face upturned, Hey, nice day, life's not so bad, what will the morning bring?
Simple as that. I'm sure this trick doesn't work for everyone but boy it works for me0
This discussion has been closed.