I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
Truss messed things up herself with her poor performances in the debates.
These poor performances were entirely predictable. She gives off all the air of someone who's had a stroke, with weird lolling head movements, unfocused eyes, weird verbal tics and mannerisms. I find it distracting to watch and listen to her talk; she's a horrible communicator. All this was known beforehand. Why would anyone sensible put their stock in her? Answer is, they aren't sensible.
UK Offshore Wind Costs 4 Times Less Than Gas-Fired Thermal Generation
When the smoke cleared and all the final bids were tallied, more than 7 gigawatts of new offshore wind energy will be added to the nation’s grid over the next 5 years at £44 per MWh. That is one quarter of what electricity from gas fired thermal generation today, according to Carbon Brief. In addition, 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity also won contracts at an average £55 per MWh and 0.9 GW of new onshore wind was bid in at £50 per MWh. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/17/uk-offshore-wind-costs-4-times-less-than-gas-fired-thermal-generation/
When I am benign and gentle dictator of the world, people who use expressions like "4 times less" will be torn apart with horses.
That’s an extraordinarily good film. One of the best I’ve ever seen.
This is why I say, don’t write off Penny.
But she was talking up her own 'legendary' video yesterday and how she didn't appear in it, as it was not about her (even though it is supposed to be).
But it is a good video - natural and heartfelt, without seeming phony.
Edit: Now out of her hands though - without a debate performance, how is she going to turn back the momentum? Or is she just that confident Tugendhat's batch will come her way?
If that had been her first video instead of some pompous prat coming out with platitudes over Jupiter but telling us nothing about a not particularly well known candidate she would still be in the race and with a half decent chance of winning it. But it wasn't and it is now probably too late. Maybe next time Penny.
She might still have been in the race if you took away the clearly targeted and relentless character assassination this past week by her opposition and the press being briefed by them. Did it affect her performance in the debates? It wouldn't have surprised me.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Her website says little, but it says this: “We need strong but limited government focused on doing some things well, not lots of things badly.” That means a smaller state. That’s a libertarian line.
You're reading too much into it. Tony Blair could have said something very similar.
If I’m reading too much into it, one would have to conclude that KB doesn’t have any message, because that’s the main message her website is offering.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
No Tory poll leads for SEVEN months and 12 days...
My guess is that there will be one in early September, in the honeymoon of the new leader. Not sure it will last though.
My guess is there won’t. Too far behind, party and record too unpopular, for that sort of bounce.
A smart bet for next Tory poll lead might be 2025, 2026
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
On climate change, I don't know why it isn't compulsory for all new warehouses, factories, shopping centres, retail parks, etc, to be fitted with solar panels. Should have happened about 20 years ago.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
Seattle Times ($) - As midterm voting kicks into high gear, Republican activists in Washington are organizing surveillance of ballot drop boxes, generating complaints and concern from some elections officials.
Over the weekend, signs were posted near ballot boxes in several Seattle-area locations, with red letters warning the boxes are “Under Surveillance” and stating that accepting money “for harvesting or depositing ballots” may violate federal law.
A scannable code on the signs pointed to a section of the King County Republican Party website with a form encouraging people to submit “election incident” reports, including photos and video.
Meanwhile, a group calling itself “WA Citizens United to Secure Ballot Boxes” is promoting drop-box surveillance statewide, encouraging people to sign up to watch ballot boxes and record video of people “dumping an in ordinate [sic] amount of ballots” and “taking pictures of themselves doing it,” according to the organization’s “Drop Box Watch” website.
The signs in King County were spotted near at least two ballot boxes in Seattle on Sunday, at the Lake City and Broadview branches of The Seattle Public Library.
While it is legal for people to observe the county’s 76 ballot boxes, which are located on public property, the message on the signs has raised concerns about possible intimidation. Watkins said King County Elections has notified the county prosecutor’s office “to check on the legality” of the effort.
“Certainly the signs out at the drop boxes are a little bit worrying,” Watkins said.
Unlike some other states which limit the practice, Washington law allows people to drop off legal mail-in ballots for other voters with no restrictions.
Mathew Patrick Thomas, chairman of the King County Republican Party, said he had not been aware local GOP volunteers were placing the signs until he got a call over the weekend from King County Elections Director Julie Wise. He said he assured Wise he’d “get this rectified.”
Thomas said he called Amber Krabach, a GOP activist and candidate who has helped lead the King County Republicans’ election integrity committee, and said, “You guys have got to stop doing this.” Thomas said he wanted to ensure the signs were at least 25 feet away from drop boxes.
Thomas, who was elected county GOP chairman a few months ago, said he “inherited” the election-integrity effort started by former Chairman Joshua Freed. “I have not done anything with the election-integrity committee — zero,” he said. While he said he supports efforts to ensure clean elections, he’d review the group’s activities. . . .
SSI - Response of the King Co GOP chairmen is good illustration of how this Republican "election-integrity effort" is likely to go down with majority of local voters of all persuasions.
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
I took it to mean that some of them are saying “if you will then I will”. They just need to count themselves up.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
On climate change, I don't know why it isn't compulsory for all new warehouses, factories, shopping centres, retail parks, etc, to be fitted with solar panels. Should have happened about 20 years ago.
I guess cost (although I’m with you in spirit) - hasn’t solar installation cost dropped like stone in recent times? It used to be very expensive, now cheap?
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
I took it to mean that some of them are saying “if you will then I will”. They just need to count themselves up.
This is literally the thickest bloc in the thickest party in parliament though. And this sum involves more than ten fingers.
I cashed out of Kemi this morning. She's probably going win now!
I don't think she's probably going to win. I think she has about a 25% chance of edging past Truss and if she does an 80% chance of then leapfrogging Penny into the final by assimilation of Trusses old votes, where she stands a 65% chance of beating Rishi.
So I think she should be about 8/1 and not 20/1 and so her current odds are value.
I don't think she's anywhere near a 25% chance of leapfrogging Truss, much as I would like to see it. I think it's more like 10%.
I don't think it's that low. Truss only picked up a 1/3rd of the Braverman transfers she was expecting. She's barely advanced. It's very unlikely she gets more than 2-3 from TT, if that.
Defectors from her camp /Penny's camp and Kemi picking up a bit of support from TT to edge it is easily a 1/4 shot right now.
Still unlikely but possible.
The gap is 13. That's a pretty big gap - equivalent to almost half of Tom's total share.
And so far, the gaps haven't changed much, and there has been absolutely no reordering.
Of course, if @MrEd is correct and Liz's support is really soft, then maybe we could see a big drop off. But right now, the gap has only moved a smidgen.
My guess is that Kemi will close the gap... but only marginally, down to 8-9.
When it kicked off, lots of centrist MPs who fancied the next PM to have good experience in cabinet had a choice between Liz or Rishi. Many of those who chose Liz over Rishi (perhaps because assassin Sunak) have escaped her appalling campaign to side with the next Prime Minister. Liz has been picking up quite a few votes from the right all along, but shipping support to Rishi.
What’s at play here in this contest, the unpopularity of Boris, his cabinet and government - I’m the only change candidate left, claims Badenoch, hence she stays in for that reason, hence she has so much support for that reason.
And for that reason, Rishi’s first cabinet might have a familiar look, same defence Secretary, same foreign Secretary, a familiar face at number 11 - Tugendhat and Badenoch might say no, so they can be the change candidates again in a little over 24 months.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
Well you were the one trying to define it.
No, I was just saying that you can't read too much into her rhetoric in terms of the traditional left-right dividing line on economic policy.
Edit: Of course there should be a 'see' in my other comment. "We'd need to see how Badenoch governs..."
It is quite entertaining watching people trying to process the idea that Nigel Farage and Britain First support Kemi Badenoch. It adds to the sense that the left will have a complete breakdown if she actually got elected leader. They will have no option than to suggest that she is being used as the mouthpiece of racist white people, thus revealing their own prejudices in seeking to deny her any agency.
But the simple fact is that, even in a scenario where she was elected, Badenoch won't be able to do much on 'woke' issues because there isn't much to go on in the 2019 manifesto and she won't have sufficient support in the party because it has become clear that there are a lot of liberals within it. Similarly with any ideas about leaving the ECHR, they will get blocked.
It would be a difficult situation for Badenoch. The reality though is that next few years will be dominated by war and inflation. Given her inexperience of high office, is she really the best candidate to deal with all that?
I can't speak for anyone else but I'm dismayed that the fascists are getting airtime over this. They've played this well, and people on both left and right are stupidly amplifying them.
There is a phenomenon where people on the left close down debate by dismissing people they don't like as "fascist" or "racist". They will eventually find a way of doing it to Badenoch, but they will need to try harder than the 'proximity to Britain First' line.
Regarding Farage, the reality is that, looking back, if people just listened to and engaged with him rather than dismissing him as beyond the pale for most of his career, then we may have ended up with a more agreeable and palatable Brexit.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
We could say the same about Williamglennism or didxiedeanism. We aren't likely to become PM soon.
It is quite entertaining watching people trying to process the idea that Nigel Farage and Britain First support Kemi Badenoch. It adds to the sense that the left will have a complete breakdown if she actually got elected leader. They will have no option than to suggest that she is being used as the mouthpiece of racist white people, thus revealing their own prejudices in seeking to deny her any agency.
But the simple fact is that, even in a scenario where she was elected, Badenoch won't be able to do much on 'woke' issues because there isn't much to go on in the 2019 manifesto and she won't have sufficient support in the party because it has become clear that there are a lot of liberals within it. Similarly with any ideas about leaving the ECHR, they will get blocked.
It would be a difficult situation for Badenoch. The reality though is that next few years will be dominated by war and inflation. Given her inexperience of high office, is she really the best candidate to deal with all that?
I can't speak for anyone else but I'm dismayed that the fascists are getting airtime over this. They've played this well, and people on both left and right are stupidly amplifying them.
There is a phenomenon where people on the left close down debate by dismissing people they don't like as "fascist" or "racist". They will eventually find a way of doing it to Badenoch, but they will need to try harder than the 'proximity to Britain First' line.
Regarding Farage, the reality is that, looking back, if people just listened to and engaged with him rather than dismissing him as beyond the pale for most of his career, then we may have ended up with a more agreeable and palatable Brexit.
My black friend tells me that Badenoch is a racist, self-hating black woman.
I keep asking for evidence, but so far he hasn’t supplied any.
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
Exactly. They’ve left it too late.
If she had closed the gap even by another 5 I might have thought it plausible. As it it is they were 10 apart in the first round and 13 apart now. Without a clear sign the open 31 votes are going to eat into most of that gap of 13 by switching to Badenoch, Truss backers have no reason not to hold firm.
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
Exactly. They’ve left it too late.
If she had closed the gap even by another 5 I might have thought it plausible. As it it is they were 10 apart in the first round and 13 apart now. Without a clear sign the open 31 votes are going to eat into most of that gap of 13 by switching to Badenoch, Truss backers have no reason not to hold firm.
And if you are Truss, and you’ve gurned and limboed and contorted into this contest, and have the Daily Mail and Mark Francois behind you, why are you going to move aside for a Nelly-come-lately?
If this was an interview for a middle management post, rather than leader of a major country, they would definitely be on the "previous candidates need not apply" readvertisement stage,
These guys just need an answer if some kind to rwo questions: "what are you going to do about people fuel bills?" and "how will you fix the NHS?". Even just showing some interest in the problems would help.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
Well you were the one trying to define it.
She certainly wasn’t throwing her weight behind Net Zero 50 before the campaign - she has also discovered Culture War is not as popular as she thought. She’s on a journey. A lot of politician’s do go on one, Portillo and Benn come to mind.
I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
Truss messed things up herself with her poor performances in the debates.
These poor performances were entirely predictable. She gives off all the air of someone who's had a stroke, with weird lolling head movements, unfocused eyes, weird verbal tics and mannerisms. I find it distracting to watch and listen to her talk; she's a horrible communicator. All this was known beforehand. Why would anyone sensible put their stock in her? Answer is, they aren't sensible.
She's only 4 and a half years older than Badenoch.
The Britain First stuff is incredibly silly - it's clearly them trolling the media and gullible idiots on Twitter (why would they refer to their own members as "infiltrators" and send it as a press release to dozens of mainstream outlets?). I cannot believe it's being taken at face value.
If this was an interview for a middle management post, rather than leader of a major country, they would definitely be on the "previous candidates need not apply" readvertisement stage,
These guys just need an answer if some kind to rwo questions: "what are you going to do about people fuel bills?" and "how will you fix the NHS?". Even just showing some interest in the problems would help.
Problem is - there isn't much you can do about fuel bills
And the fix for the NHS is a 10 year project - firstly because anything to do with training will take 7 years to expand universities (2 years) and then 5 years before the first arrivals get their first degree and start working.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
But BoJo has been dumped. SKS is no young Tony. No one, least of all him, claims he is.
Dumped to be replaced by a gimp, a gimp, a gimp or a gimp. And all those gimps are less vulnerable to SKS's pitifully meagre skillset than Bojo was.
The number of dismissive comments against Keir Starmer on this site seems to increase in proportion to the size of the Labour poll lead.
If he wins, I can see the comments here now.
"Actually Starmer didn't win, it was the Tories who lost"
"Keir is actually shit, he's never faced a good leader"
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
We could say the same about Williamglennism or didxiedeanism. We aren't likely to become PM soon.
If this was an interview for a middle management post, rather than leader of a major country, they would definitely be on the "previous candidates need not apply" readvertisement stage,
These guys just need an answer if some kind to rwo questions: "what are you going to do about people fuel bills?" and "how will you fix the NHS?". Even just showing some interest in the problems would help.
Kemi will get round to thinking about the rest of the NHS, once her tooth is fixed.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
We could say the same about Williamglennism or didxiedeanism. We aren't likely to become PM soon.
Point of order - how do we know @williamglenn is not Rishi Sunak?
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
No Tory poll leads for SEVEN months and 12 days...
My guess is that there will be one in early September, in the honeymoon of the new leader. Not sure it will last though.
That has to be the next hope for the Conservatives.
However, in 1990, the Conservative poll jump happened on the announcement of Maggie's resignation;
John Major's election didn't really change the scores. Kind of makes sense- the key emotion is "thank God (s)he's gone", more than joy at the excitement of the new person.
Now it may be different this time- after all, the Unflushable One is proving really hard to definitively flush. But none of BoJo's possible successors look like they are setting the Conservative Party, let alone the nation, alight.
And if changing the leader doesn't work, what do the Conservatives try next? They still have 2.5 years with a chunky majority.
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
We could say the same about Williamglennism or didxiedeanism. We aren't likely to become PM soon.
Point of order - how do we know @williamglenn is not Rishi Sunak?
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
We could say the same about Williamglennism or didxiedeanism. We aren't likely to become PM soon.
Point of order - how do we know @williamglenn is not Rishi Sunak?
I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
Truss messed things up herself with her poor performances in the debates.
These poor performances were entirely predictable. She gives off all the air of someone who's had a stroke, with weird lolling head movements, unfocused eyes, weird verbal tics and mannerisms. I find it distracting to watch and listen to her talk; she's a horrible communicator. All this was known beforehand. Why would anyone sensible put their stock in her? Answer is, they aren't sensible.
She's only 4 and a half years older than Badenoch.
Badenoch is not too young, she has limited experience. Truss has been in parliament 7 years longer, made it to the Cabinet in only 4 years, and the 2 years out of Cabinet in the following 8 was being no. 2 in the Treasury (and the role often 'attends Cabinet' even if not technically of it).
I know duffers can survive and thrive in government, but given she isn't a great presenter I feel like she must have some level of gravitas and competence to have thrived under 3 Prime Ministers of wildly different character.
On climate change, I don't know why it isn't compulsory for all new warehouses, factories, shopping centres, retail parks, etc, to be fitted with solar panels. Should have happened about 20 years ago.
Twenty years ago, panels were very expensive.
Today, the biggest expense is installation, and if you install them when the building is constructed, then the cost is very little.
My guess is that building codes will include heat pumps and solar going forward/
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Less social engineering, more public services.
What does that mean in reality rather than in buzz words?
We'd need to how Badenoch governs before defining Badenochism.
We could say the same about Williamglennism or didxiedeanism. We aren't likely to become PM soon.
Point of order - how do we know @williamglenn is not Rishi Sunak?
Rishi voted for Brexit.
My God: Remainer with Damascene conversion... you must be Liz Truss.
On climate change, I don't know why it isn't compulsory for all new warehouses, factories, shopping centres, retail parks, etc, to be fitted with solar panels. Should have happened about 20 years ago.
I guess cost (although I’m with you in spirit) - hasn’t solar installation cost dropped like stone in recent times? It used to be very expensive, now cheap?
Pretty much. So the Lomborg argument (don't fix global warming in 2000ish, wait a bit until we have cheaper better technology to solve things in a smarter way) has played out fine. But the "wait a bit" time has pretty much now arrived. So put whatever solar and wind you can wherever you can- it's all cheap and we can use it all. We might even need to think in terms of removing CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans, which is horribly energy-expensive if you can't wait for plants to do it.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
But BoJo has been dumped. SKS is no young Tony. No one, least of all him, claims he is.
Dumped to be replaced by a gimp, a gimp, a gimp or a gimp. And all those gimps are less vulnerable to SKS's pitifully meagre skillset than Bojo was.
The number of dismissive comments against Keir Starmer on this site seems to increase in proportion to the size of the Labour poll lead.
If he wins, I can see the comments here now.
"Actually Starmer didn't win, it was the Tories who lost"
"Keir is actually shit, he's never faced a good leader"
It's funny, it's what you heard from Corbyn
It took Labour 16 years to get from the 1983 meltdown to the 1997 victory. Yet from a similar starting position as in 1983 (or worse in terms of seats), Starmer will be judged a failure if he doesn't emulate Blair in the space of just 5 years.
I know having a political vision is genuinely a good thing. You don't want people who are entirely philosophical vacuums. But I still have an instinctive distrust of those whose primary selling point is their strong philosophy or ideological position.
My worry is what happens when, swiftly and inevitably, the real world proves itself more complicated than that coherent political philosophy allows for. Which bends first, their philosophy or the country?
Nice video from Penny. Weird how she attracts such vitriol from some parts of the right.
Do other candidates also have similar short vids created for this race? If so, can somebody please post links, am having trouble just googling for them!
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
Truss' problem is that many of her backers don't back him because they find her vision appealing but it's because they see her as the vessel to push their own ambitions *
Which means that she is potentially very vulnerable to a collapse if her backers lose faith in her being the best vehicle.
I'm not saying that will happen and the odds are probably against it but too many people are fixated on the idea that Truss has too big a lead. If 10% of her current backers decide KB is the better vehicle for what they want and switch sides, LT is out .
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
I know having a political vision is genuinely a good thing. You don't want people who are entirely philosophical vacuums. But I still have an instinctive distrust of those whose primary selling point is their strong philosophy or ideological position.
My worry is what happens when, swiftly and inevitably, the real world proves itself more complicated than that coherent political philosophy allows for. Which bends first, their philosophy or the country?
Truss' problem is that many of her backers don't back him because they find her vision appealing but it's because they see her as the vessel to push their own ambitions *
Which means that she is potentially very vulnerable to a collapse if her backers lose faith in her being the best vehicle.
I'm not saying that will happen and the odds are probably against it but too many people are fixated on the idea that Truss has too big a lead. If 10% of her current backers decide KB is the better vehicle for what they want and switch sides, LT is out .
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
Yes, but 10% is a lot of people, in a market where there haven't been big moves so far.
The biggest downward lurch yet - achieved by both TT and Morduant - is 1.
I'm not saying it's not possible, as it clearly is, but I think the odds are pretty long.
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
On climate change, I don't know why it isn't compulsory for all new warehouses, factories, shopping centres, retail parks, etc, to be fitted with solar panels. Should have happened about 20 years ago.
I guess cost (although I’m with you in spirit) - hasn’t solar installation cost dropped like stone in recent times? It used to be very expensive, now cheap?
The newish Met Office HQ in Exeter was built around 2002-3, and they designed the roof with a pitch to maximize solar power, but didn't install the panels until 2012, when they decided it had become economic to do so.
Of course, if no-one had installed solar panels before 2012 then they'd never have had the investment, development and economies of scale to reduce in cost.
Truss' problem is that many of her backers don't back him because they find her vision appealing but it's because they see her as the vessel to push their own ambitions *
Which means that she is potentially very vulnerable to a collapse if her backers lose faith in her being the best vehicle.
I'm not saying that will happen and the odds are probably against it but too many people are fixated on the idea that Truss has too big a lead. If 10% of her current backers decide KB is the better vehicle for what they want and switch sides, LT is out .
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
“This might happen but it won’t happen but it might”?
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
No Tory poll leads for SEVEN months and 12 days...
My guess is that there will be one in early September, in the honeymoon of the new leader. Not sure it will last though.
That has to be the next hope for the Conservatives.
However, in 1990, the Conservative poll jump happened on the announcement of Maggie's resignation;
John Major's election didn't really change the scores. Kind of makes sense- the key emotion is "thank God (s)he's gone", more than joy at the excitement of the new person.
Now it may be different this time- after all, the Unflushable One is proving really hard to definitively flush. But none of BoJo's possible successors look like they are setting the Conservative Party, let alone the nation, alight.
And if changing the leader doesn't work, what do the Conservatives try next? They still have 2.5 years with a chunky majority.
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
Nice video from Penny. Weird how she attracts such vitriol from some parts of the right.
Do other candidates also have similar short vids created for this race? If so, can somebody please post links, am having trouble just googling for them!
Rishi had this 'I'm a Leaver, remember?' Dad's Army pitch
Truss' problem is that many of her backers don't back him because they find her vision appealing but it's because they see her as the vessel to push their own ambitions *
Which means that she is potentially very vulnerable to a collapse if her backers lose faith in her being the best vehicle.
I'm not saying that will happen and the odds are probably against it but too many people are fixated on the idea that Truss has too big a lead. If 10% of her current backers decide KB is the better vehicle for what they want and switch sides, LT is out .
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
Yes, but 10% is a lot of people, in a market where there haven't been big moves so far.
The biggest downward lurch yet - achieved by both TT and Morduant - is 1.
I'm not saying it's not possible, as it clearly is, but I think the odds are pretty long.
TT and Braverman both dropped 5 between the first and second rounds.
On climate change, I don't know why it isn't compulsory for all new warehouses, factories, shopping centres, retail parks, etc, to be fitted with solar panels. Should have happened about 20 years ago.
I guess cost (although I’m with you in spirit) - hasn’t solar installation cost dropped like stone in recent times? It used to be very expensive, now cheap?
Pretty much. So the Lomborg argument (don't fix global warming in 2000ish, wait a bit until we have cheaper better technology to solve things in a smarter way) has played out fine. But the "wait a bit" time has pretty much now arrived. So put whatever solar and wind you can wherever you can- it's all cheap and we can use it all. We might even need to think in terms of removing CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans, which is horribly energy-expensive if you can't wait for plants to do it.
It's only "worked out fine" because some people ignored Lomborg and spent money on renewable energy since then, which allowed the technology to be developed and improved and for economies of scale to make it cheaper.
If everyone had stood around waiting for the technology to become cheaper before doing anything we'd still be waiting.
Ok seriously, wiki has an explanation why one MP (Williamson) did not vote in the first round, but since then 2 did not vote in the second and 1 did not vote in the third. Its surely not the same one missing each time, but who else is missing this?
One thing Tory MPs hate: being told who to vote for. So if one of the candidates suddenly dropped out and told all their supporters to vote for candidate X, a lot of them would vote for candidates Y and Z almost out of principle. [It almost makes one wonder whether you could persuade them vote a certain way by pretending to be in favour of candidate X when you really supported Y or Z].
That's why Anne-Marie T's comment about Tom Tugendhat supporters being recommended to vote as a bloc for a yet-to-be-named candidate probably wasn't a smart thing to say.
If I start telling you about rampant sexual orgies with younger female students while brandishing an artisanal flint dildo and wearing a Mayan death mask, will that seal the deal?
Truss' problem is that many of her backers don't back him because they find her vision appealing but it's because they see her as the vessel to push their own ambitions *
Which means that she is potentially very vulnerable to a collapse if her backers lose faith in her being the best vehicle.
I'm not saying that will happen and the odds are probably against it but too many people are fixated on the idea that Truss has too big a lead. If 10% of her current backers decide KB is the better vehicle for what they want and switch sides, LT is out .
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
“This might happen but it won’t happen but it might”?
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
Nice video from Penny. Weird how she attracts such vitriol from some parts of the right.
Do other candidates also have similar short vids created for this race? If so, can somebody please post links, am having trouble just googling for them!
Ok seriously, wiki has an explanation why one MP (Williamson) did not vote in the first round, but since then 2 did not vote in the second and 1 did not vote in the third. Its surely not the same one missing each time, but who else is missing this?
If Gavin Williamson arrived too late to vote in the first ballot, is he really the best person to allegedly be running Sunak's tactical voting campaign?
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
I'd have more sympathy with the view the court overreaches (even on issues I would support) if I did not have the sneaking suspicion he thinks it has never overreached in the other direction.
Ok seriously, wiki has an explanation why one MP (Williamson) did not vote in the first round, but since then 2 did not vote in the second and 1 did not vote in the third. Its surely not the same one missing each time, but who else is missing this?
(snipped) ...Gavin Williamson... is he really the best person ...?
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
But BoJo has been dumped. SKS is no young Tony. No one, least of all him, claims he is.
Dumped to be replaced by a gimp, a gimp, a gimp or a gimp. And all those gimps are less vulnerable to SKS's pitifully meagre skillset than Bojo was.
The number of dismissive comments against Keir Starmer on this site seems to increase in proportion to the size of the Labour poll lead.
If he wins, I can see the comments here now.
"Actually Starmer didn't win, it was the Tories who lost"
"Keir is actually shit, he's never faced a good leader"
It's funny, it's what you heard from Corbyn
It took Labour 16 years to get from the 1983 meltdown to the 1997 victory. Yet from a similar starting position as in 1983 (or worse in terms of seats), Starmer will be judged a failure if he doesn't emulate Blair in the space of just 5 years.
You are Nadhim Zahawi and I claim my 16 Kurdish Dollars
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
My Finnish-speaking brother searched Finnish social media and couldn’t find anything so, sadly, unless more info is forthcoming from @kamski we won’t know what that rumour is supposed to be…
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
They so desperately try and over compensate that they’re willing to completely destroy UK EU relations to prove their Brexit credentials.
I might totally disagree with Leave politicians who backed that in 2016 but can accept that they held this view when it wasn’t so popular in the Tory party and at least have a shred of dignity .
Born again Leavers like Truss would be a disaster for the country .
They so desperately try and over compensate that they’re willing to completely destroy UK EU relations to prove their Brexit credentials.
I might totally disagree with Leave politicians who backed that in 2016 but can accept that they held this view when it wasn’t so popular in the Tory party and at least have a shred of dignity .
Born again Leavers like Truss would be a disaster for the country .
I think Truss has dignity. I made the same political "journey" as Truss, the only difference is I made it a few months earlier. She strikes me as someone completely willing to destroy UK EU relations because its the right thing to do, with integrity, rather than just to prove credentials.
From Tugendhat: 15 switch to Sunak 8 switch to Mordaunt 6 switch to Badenoch 2 switch to Truss
From Mordaunt: 2 switch to Badenoch
From Truss: 4 switch to Badenoch
Possible fourth ballot:
Sunak: 130 Mordaunt: 88 Truss: 69 Badenoch: 70
Yep, that's entirely possible.
But it's enormously dependent on 4 switching from Truss to Mordaunt... Without that, she's 8 short.
Ultimately, if Truss doesn't go backwards (and I think it's unlikely she will), then it's very difficult for Badenoch to pass her. Don't forget that Truss has more than 20% more votes than Badenoch.
Truss' problem is that many of her backers don't back him because they find her vision appealing but it's because they see her as the vessel to push their own ambitions *
Which means that she is potentially very vulnerable to a collapse if her backers lose faith in her being the best vehicle.
I'm not saying that will happen and the odds are probably against it but too many people are fixated on the idea that Truss has too big a lead. If 10% of her current backers decide KB is the better vehicle for what they want and switch sides, LT is out .
Interesting comments from Nick Watt on Newsnight .
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .
Badenoch is currently in last place and facing elimination. Truss’s supporters will back Kemi if she comes higher than Truss. But she’s got to come higher than Truss to survive anyway!
Yes, but 10% is a lot of people, in a market where there haven't been big moves so far.
The biggest downward lurch yet - achieved by both TT and Morduant - is 1.
I'm not saying it's not possible, as it clearly is, but I think the odds are pretty long.
TT and Braverman both dropped 5 between the first and second rounds.
On climate change, I don't know why it isn't compulsory for all new warehouses, factories, shopping centres, retail parks, etc, to be fitted with solar panels. Should have happened about 20 years ago.
I guess cost (although I’m with you in spirit) - hasn’t solar installation cost dropped like stone in recent times? It used to be very expensive, now cheap?
Pretty much. So the Lomborg argument (don't fix global warming in 2000ish, wait a bit until we have cheaper better technology to solve things in a smarter way) has played out fine. But the "wait a bit" time has pretty much now arrived. So put whatever solar and wind you can wherever you can- it's all cheap and we can use it all. We might even need to think in terms of removing CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans, which is horribly energy-expensive if you can't wait for plants to do it.
It's only "worked out fine" because some people ignored Lomborg and spent money on renewable energy since then, which allowed the technology to be developed and improved and for economies of scale to make it cheaper.
If everyone had stood around waiting for the technology to become cheaper before doing anything we'd still be waiting.
I don't think people like him have said don't do anything at all, don't even research new technologies. I think what was said was to work on and invest in new technologies and to adopt them when they're available, which is what people have done.
Too often in the past the conversation has been dominated by zealot extremes on either side who either deny that anthropic climate change exists (it obviously does), or that we must do everything right now (we don't have to) and that technological solutions are a unicorn (they're not).
People who've suggested to invest in technologies and adopt them when they're available have actually had what they've advocated for been done, but they'll never get any credit, because such a sensible solution doesn't fit any of the zealots who dominate too much of the conversation.
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
One thing Tory MPs hate: being told who to vote for. So if one of the candidates suddenly dropped out and told all their supporters to vote for candidate X, a lot of them would vote for candidates Y and Z almost out of principle. [It almost makes one wonder whether you could persuade them vote a certain way by pretending to be in favour of candidate X when you really supported Y or Z].
That's why Anne-Marie T's comment about Tom Tugendhat supporters being recommended to vote as a bloc for a yet-to-be-named candidate probably wasn't a smart thing to say.
Edmund Burke would treat such "redommendation" with contempt. In line with his Speech to Electors of Bristol.
But of course Burke was a real (as opposed to "true") Conservative.
PM does her Kinnock Jonathan Seagull video. But who is it aimed at? The actual electorate at moment is 350 Tory MPs not the voting public.
They also want to keep their seats, after that video for the first time I think we might actually have a candidate who could win a small majority against Starmer if she sells herself and her message as she does there
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
You could add Alberta from Canada as in the second map and now remove Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico
I think there clearly need to be five countries formed out of the US/Canada, not just two.
We should have the Confederacy, minus Virginia. Basically slave ownin' and Jesus lovin'.
Plus The Mountain West, which includes Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, etc. all the way down to New Mexico. Basically libertarians.
Then we have East Coastia and MidWest, which is Virginia up the Canadian Maritime Provinces, Illinois, Minnesota. Basically, it's the rust belt.
Then you HippyLandWest, which is California up to British Colombia. Yeah, it's the guys who love surfing, snowboarding, skiing and weed.
And then finally you have Quebec. Which is where the French speakers live and complain about English speakers.
Agree with most of that, though given East Coast and Midwest includes New York City, Toronto and Harvard and Yale and DC it is certainly not all rustbelt
Ok seriously, wiki has an explanation why one MP (Williamson) did not vote in the first round, but since then 2 did not vote in the second and 1 did not vote in the third. Its surely not the same one missing each time, but who else is missing this?
If Gavin Williamson arrived too late to vote in the first ballot, is he really the best person to allegedly be running Sunak's tactical voting campaign?
Believe that Boris is not voting. Because he believes he's irreplaceable.
Just as 45 will only vote for himself for President forever more; if not on the ballot, he'll write himself in.
Comments
All this was known beforehand. Why would anyone sensible put their stock in her? Answer is, they aren't sensible.
That's the reason for the decline not some video.
"Why is Labour so far behind"
Labour levels.
"Why is Labour level"
Labour pulls 5 points ahead.
"Labour should be further ahead"
Labour pulls 10 points ahead
"That lead will collapse once Johnson is out"
Labour pulls 15* points ahead.
"Why is Keir Starmer so shit"
Boring
(*Although in the last week the lead has actually averaged about 11 points.)
She’s telling you what she believes in.
A smart bet for next Tory poll lead might be 2025, 2026
Over the weekend, signs were posted near ballot boxes in several Seattle-area locations, with red letters warning the boxes are “Under Surveillance” and stating that accepting money “for harvesting or depositing ballots” may violate federal law.
A scannable code on the signs pointed to a section of the King County Republican Party website with a form encouraging people to submit “election incident” reports, including photos and video.
Meanwhile, a group calling itself “WA Citizens United to Secure Ballot Boxes” is promoting drop-box surveillance statewide, encouraging people to sign up to watch ballot boxes and record video of people “dumping an in ordinate [sic] amount of ballots” and “taking pictures of themselves doing it,” according to the organization’s “Drop Box Watch” website.
The signs in King County were spotted near at least two ballot boxes in Seattle on Sunday, at the Lake City and Broadview branches of The Seattle Public Library.
While it is legal for people to observe the county’s 76 ballot boxes, which are located on public property, the message on the signs has raised concerns about possible intimidation. Watkins said King County Elections has notified the county prosecutor’s office “to check on the legality” of the effort.
“Certainly the signs out at the drop boxes are a little bit worrying,” Watkins said.
Unlike some other states which limit the practice, Washington law allows people to drop off legal mail-in ballots for other voters with no restrictions.
Mathew Patrick Thomas, chairman of the King County Republican Party, said he had not been aware local GOP volunteers were placing the signs until he got a call over the weekend from King County Elections Director Julie Wise. He said he assured Wise he’d “get this rectified.”
Thomas said he called Amber Krabach, a GOP activist and candidate who has helped lead the King County Republicans’ election integrity committee, and said, “You guys have got to stop doing this.” Thomas said he wanted to ensure the signs were at least 25 feet away from drop boxes.
Thomas, who was elected county GOP chairman a few months ago, said he “inherited” the election-integrity effort started by former Chairman Joshua Freed. “I have not done anything with the election-integrity committee — zero,” he said. While he said he supports efforts to ensure clean elections, he’d review the group’s activities. . . .
SSI - Response of the King Co GOP chairmen is good illustration of how this Republican "election-integrity effort" is likely to go down with majority of local voters of all persuasions.
In a word, badly.
Miller Lite - Great Taste, Less Filling - commercials from the 70's & 80's
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwrcwwbSGFc
What’s at play here in this contest, the unpopularity of Boris, his cabinet and government - I’m the only change candidate left, claims Badenoch, hence she stays in for that reason, hence she has so much support for that reason.
And for that reason, Rishi’s first cabinet might have a familiar look, same defence Secretary, same foreign Secretary, a familiar face at number 11 - Tugendhat and Badenoch might say no, so they can be the change candidates again in a little over 24 months.
Edit: Of course there should be a 'see' in my other comment. "We'd need to see how Badenoch governs..."
Regarding Farage, the reality is that, looking back, if people just listened to and engaged with him rather than dismissing him as beyond the pale for most of his career, then we may have ended up with a more agreeable and palatable Brexit.
We aren't likely to become PM soon.
I keep asking for evidence, but so far he hasn’t supplied any.
"The British case for free train travel
The UK has much to learn from its Spanish counterparts"
https://unherd.com/thepost/the-british-case-for-free-train-travel/
These guys just need an answer if some kind to rwo questions: "what are you going to do about people fuel bills?" and "how will you fix the NHS?". Even just showing some interest in the problems would help.
And the fix for the NHS is a 10 year project - firstly because anything to do with training will take 7 years to expand universities (2 years) and then 5 years before the first arrivals get their first degree and start working.
"Actually Starmer didn't win, it was the Tories who lost"
"Keir is actually shit, he's never faced a good leader"
It's funny, it's what you heard from Corbyn
However, in 1990, the Conservative poll jump happened on the announcement of Maggie's resignation;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election
John Major's election didn't really change the scores. Kind of makes sense- the key emotion is "thank God (s)he's gone", more than joy at the excitement of the new person.
Now it may be different this time- after all, the Unflushable One is proving really hard to definitively flush. But none of BoJo's possible successors look like they are setting the Conservative Party, let alone the nation, alight.
And if changing the leader doesn't work, what do the Conservatives try next? They still have 2.5 years with a chunky majority.
Asked point-blank whether he would be "okay with the Supreme Court leaving the question of interracial marriage to the states," Senator Mike Braun (Rep, Indiana) replied in the affirmative.
https://twitter.com/johniadarola/status/1549091973008486402?s=21&t=ofX7sTkzVvHzl_qOZtrV3Q
I know duffers can survive and thrive in government, but given she isn't a great presenter I feel like she must have some level of gravitas and competence to have thrived under 3 Prime Ministers of wildly different character.
Today, the biggest expense is installation, and if you install them when the building is constructed, then the cost is very little.
My guess is that building codes will include heat pumps and solar going forward/
I don’t have a vote in the #ConservativeLeadershipRace (yet) but I’m supporting @KemiBadenoch
She stands out as someone with a firm intellectual grasp of detailed policy, within an overall and coherent political philosophy.
https://twitter.com/DXWQC/status/1549134068125769729
My worry is what happens when, swiftly and inevitably, the real world proves itself more complicated than that coherent political philosophy allows for. Which bends first, their philosophy or the country?
Truss' problem is that many of her backers don't back him because they find her vision appealing but it's because they see her as the vessel to push their own ambitions *
Which means that she is potentially very vulnerable to a collapse if her backers lose faith in her being the best vehicle.
I'm not saying that will happen and the odds are probably against it but too many people are fixated on the idea that Truss has too big a lead. If 10% of her current backers decide KB is the better vehicle for what they want and switch sides, LT is out .
We're back in 2002. The vitriol they've dished out to her is the true "Nasty Party" in all it's glory...
The biggest downward lurch yet - achieved by both TT and Morduant - is 1.
I'm not saying it's not possible, as it clearly is, but I think the odds are pretty long.
Of course, if no-one had installed solar panels before 2012 then they'd never have had the investment, development and economies of scale to reduce in cost.
Are you the latest Leon?
https://twitter.com/alltextingnot/status/1549098423261044736?s=21&t=ofX7sTkzVvHzl_qOZtrV3Q
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1548712009130295297?cxt=HHwWgoC-ub3XkP4qAAAA
If everyone had stood around waiting for the technology to become cheaper before doing anything we'd still be waiting.
That's why Anne-Marie T's comment about Tom Tugendhat supporters being recommended to vote as a bloc for a yet-to-be-named candidate probably wasn't a smart thing to say.
If I start telling you about rampant sexual orgies with younger female students while brandishing an artisanal flint dildo and wearing a Mayan death mask, will that seal the deal?
https://www.politico.com/video/2022/07/18/cruz-scotus-was-clearly-wrong-in-its-ruling-on-same-sex-marriage-637350
Rishi Brexit https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1548712009130295297
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesusland_map
https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1549088743339991040?s=21&t=ofX7sTkzVvHzl_qOZtrV3Q
Boris’s expression says it all.
Third ballot:
Sunak: 115
Mordaunt: 82
Truss: 71
Badenoch: 58
Tugendhat: 31 - OUT
From Tugendhat:
15 switch to Sunak
8 switch to Mordaunt
6 switch to Badenoch
2 switch to Truss
From Mordaunt:
2 switch to Badenoch
From Truss:
4 switch to Badenoch
Possible fourth ballot:
Sunak: 130
Mordaunt: 88
Truss: 69
Badenoch: 70
He's also right that the replacement candidates have been implicitly saying his government was crap.
They so desperately try and over compensate that they’re willing to completely destroy UK EU relations to prove their Brexit credentials.
I might totally disagree with Leave politicians who backed that in 2016 but can accept that they held this view when it wasn’t so popular in the Tory party and at least have a shred of dignity .
Born again Leavers like Truss would be a disaster for the country .
The zeal of the convert if you will.
But it's enormously dependent on 4 switching from Truss to Mordaunt... Without that, she's 8 short.
Ultimately, if Truss doesn't go backwards (and I think it's unlikely she will), then it's very difficult for Badenoch to pass her. Don't forget that Truss has more than 20% more votes than Badenoch.
She really needed people like Micky Fab to be supporting her, but he's supporting Penny Mordaunt instead.
Too often in the past the conversation has been dominated by zealot extremes on either side who either deny that anthropic climate change exists (it obviously does), or that we must do everything right now (we don't have to) and that technological solutions are a unicorn (they're not).
People who've suggested to invest in technologies and adopt them when they're available have actually had what they've advocated for been done, but they'll never get any credit, because such a sensible solution doesn't fit any of the zealots who dominate too much of the conversation.
We should have the Confederacy, minus Virginia. Basically slave ownin' and Jesus lovin'.
Plus The Mountain West, which includes Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, etc. all the way down to New Mexico. Basically libertarians.
Then we have East Coastia and MidWest, which is Virginia up the Canadian Maritime Provinces, Illinois, Minnesota. Basically, it's the rust belt.
Then you HippyLandWest, which is California up to British Colombia. Yeah, it's the guys who love surfing, snowboarding, skiing and weed.
And then finally you have Quebec. Which is where the French speakers live and complain about English speakers.
But of course Burke was a real (as opposed to "true") Conservative.
@MrHarryCole
·
1h
This is very good.
https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1549130737726767107
===
PM does her Kinnock Jonathan Seagull video. But who is it aimed at? The actual electorate at moment is 350 Tory MPs not the voting public.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/07/exclusive-penny-mordaunt-firm-lobbied-evangelical-group-opposed-abortion-rape.
Note the last line with Labour putting the boot in.
Just as 45 will only vote for himself for President forever more; if not on the ballot, he'll write himself in.