Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Betfair next prime minister 2.08 Rishi Sunak 48% 3.4 Liz Truss 29% 5.7 Penny Mordaunt 18% 19 Kemi Badenoch 5% 310 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader 2.1 Rishi Sunak 48% 3.35 Liz Truss 30% 5.6 Penny Mordaunt 18% 18 Kemi Badenoch 6%
To be in final two 1.01 Rishi Sunak 99% 1.68 Liz Truss 60% 2.62 Penny Mordaunt 38% 9 Kemi Badenoch 11%
Buy Truss.
If Truss makes it through tomorrow, then yes.
I'm not sure she makes it through then though.
Yes Truss is in big trouble now. Like a football team to back is the one with points on board not games in hands.
Don’t take it from bias old me, take from The Mouth Of Sauron - admittedly Iain DuncanSmith spun it as Truss with the momentum, but his face was shock and disappointment, his eyes told a differentl story.
🤗
It's interesting that Truss' public backing from the likes of JRM / Dorries and the ERG seems to have quietened down over the past 48 hours.
Today should have been when she catapulted herself up to or beyond PM who has had a shocker of a weekend. Instead she is still behind.
I also think it's more likely Badenoch could take Truss' votes with her into the final three than vice versa. That is a consideration for Truss' backers as well.
If the right can save themselves with at least a candidate against Rishi, not many grains of sand left to engineer it. Sunak probably has the power of votes in last round to choose his opponent, thanks to truss under performance.
I cashed out of Kemi this morning. She's probably going win now!
I don't think she's probably going to win. I think she has about a 25% chance of edging past Truss and if she does an 80% chance of then leapfrogging Penny into the final by assimilation of Trusses old votes, where she stands a 65% chance of beating Rishi.
So I think she should be about 8/1 and not 20/1 and so her current odds are value.
Given that a car doesn't stop most bullets, that doesn't sound terribly likely?
Could be from a pistol or SMG, ie low energy. Or a partly spent rifle round, or one that had ricocheted (the ones which didn't stop, we wouldn't hear about).
Or the bullet was traveling at an angle. Much easier to deflect something if it's not heading directly at you.
I hope Sunak doesn't win, I've spent months saying he's finished and got no chance. My legions of fans, imaginary though they may be, would lose all respect for my political acumen.
You'll always have my respect. Of all the posters on here, you are always terribly reasonable and considered, see the merit of all sides, and I've no idea of your political opinions other than that they seem pretty, how can I say, in the centre. Like my late dad. Those who say you sit on the fence are being most unfair.
Oh I don't know, I used to go by the handle Dedicated Fence Sitter, so there may be some merit to it. But that is very nice of you.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Why do people say "nailed on" when it's anything but?
Because it's the internet.
There is some benefits to decisiveness. I forget who it was but some group or commentator a few months ago rated something as a 55% chance. I feel like it would have been simpler to just admit they didn't have a bloody clue.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
One of the great questions of next few years in politics is whether Johnson will be happy taking all the money or whether he will attempt a comeback after the Deep State spat him out.
Fun versus hard work, how will he possibly be able to decide?
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
When it comes to the left/right dimension, Tugendhat and Badenoch are at opposite ends.
I'm not convinced Badenoch is quite that right-wing.
She's done service low-wage jobs and doesn't demonise unions, for one.
Story of this round was the split in ERG. The ITV debate question to the three Brexit candidates was why are the ERG backing Truss and not you? Well they didn’t, not as anything like a block anyway.
As for TT’s votes. Some may have missed the LBC interviews. He and Kemi were interviewed separately but described each other as friends. There’s mutual respect there. Also don’t forget TT’s underarm bowl to Penny last night, he’s got no problem with her winning I don’t think and her campaign manager on Sky said immediately after that TT and Penny would make a formidable team.
What motivated the TT voters and can he carry them to one candidate? Most likely a) an aversion to Boris’s Cabinet, b) national security, c) centrism, in that order.
I would look at that and think fewer than people suppose will switch to Sunak and fairly well none to Truss, given that TT views British foreign policy as doggydoo in recent years.
So it then depends on whether they swing to Kemi, knocking out Truss, or break 50-50 giving Penny clear air to Truss.
Final round. Who do Kemi’s votes go to? Well I’d assume that any TT transfers go to Penny. By then they’ve had every chance to vote for Sunak and still kept voting for the outsider candidate. Not as many obsess about cocks and fannies as is assumed, so I suspect Penny picks up a few more on top. And she squeaks second. Unless Kemi knocks out Truss, in which case she becomes PM.
Given that a car doesn't stop most bullets, that doesn't sound terribly likely?
Could be from a pistol or SMG, ie low energy. Or a partly spent rifle round, or one that had ricocheted (the ones which didn't stop, we wouldn't hear about).
Or the bullet was traveling at an angle. Much easier to deflect something if it's not heading directly at you.
It was travelling upwards at the point of entry, and lodged in his fourth vertebrae (I think). It remained there in fact all his life as it didn't seem to be doing nearly as much harm as surgery would.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
That's absolutely fucking hilarious. A racist, fascist 'party' instructing its members to vote for Kemi because she's anti-woke and not politically correct. You couldn't make it up. I'll bet Kemi is delighted by that endorsement.
Why would a young black woman become a Tory? I hope people on the left take the points she's making seriously. I also note that there is some evidence that US politics is starting to become less racialised in voting patterns
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
Kemi anti-establishment? She’s been less explicitly anti-Boris than Tugendhat or Mordaunt. Policy wise, she’s gone with culture war stuff that fits a Johnsonian right-wing populism.
She is now the only one who has never served in the disastrous and scandal ridden cabinets of the last two leaders. That was Tugendhat's pitch as well.
She didn’t serve in those Cabinets because she’s very junior, not because she took a principled stand against Johnson (or May). She had a government position under Johnson and worked with Sunak. She only resigned after Sunak. She is nothing like Tugendhat.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Blimey, far right politics has gotten really weird.
There was once this Pakistani heritage chap in Scotland who joined the Scottish Defence League because he was sick and tired of immigrants coming over here.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
1000s of members my arse. Britain First have about as many members as Lib Dem have MPs, let alone ones that have actually then paid money to be Tory party members.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
That's absolutely fucking hilarious. A racist, fascist 'party' instructing its members to vote for Kemi because she's anti-woke and not politically correct. You couldn't make it up. I'll bet Kemi is delighted by that endorsement.
Surely that shows that they're (a) not that racist and/or (b) a bit thick?
I think both of those two things are probably true.
Mourdaunt went backwards and yer the talk is about Truss. I find that slightly odd.
It's just like with a business that posts a reasonable profit, but one that is not so large as traders were expecting, resulting in a hefty drop in the share price.
Truss was expected to hoover up the Braverman vote and make progress. The fact that she didn't make as big a gain as was expected means that the market is selling. The fact that she's closed the gap on Mordaunt isn't so very important to the calculus at this stage.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Why would a young black woman become a Tory? I hope people on the left take the points she's making seriously. I also note that there is some evidence that US politics is starting to become less racialised in voting patterns
I'm pretty sure that Anne Marie Trevelyan said when interviewed shortly after the vote that Tuggers will vote as a bloc and won't vote for Penny. Did I hear that right and if so surely this is hugely significant to how things pan out?
Probably repeating what others have said. But if Tuggers go to Kemi in the next round then Kemi leapfrogs Truss, Kemi gets most of Truss' transfers in the final round and gets to the final and then Kemi beats Rishi in the members votes. So potentially Tug makes Kemi PM ???
I didn't hear her interview but, given TT's result, that is entirely plausible that it will vote as a block.
I guess the question is out of the remaining three, which is the candidate the TT MPs wouldn't want? KB has shifted her stance which suggests she has 'flexibility' while Truss is trying to make herself as Ms Brexit. I would think they believe they would get more out of KB than LT given the latter's open ERG support. As for BJ's supporters, I don't think they care who goes through as long as Sunak loses (and they may think KB has a better chance of making that happen).
I'm not sure there are any truly block votes in the Conservative Party. In the privacy of the polling booth, Tory MPs can vote however they like. And people will have different motivations: some will be have personal grudges, some will be terrified of losing their marginal seat, some will worry about Ukraine or the economy, and some are retiring anyway.
So, can Badenoch leapfrog Truss tomorrow?
Yes, absolutely. But it's not very likely.
And it can happen in one of three ways (or a combination):
1. She gets a decent share of TT's support 2. She gets direct Truss-to-Badenoch switchers (or Morduant-to-Badenoch) 3. Sunak decides to lend some of his support
For what it's worth, I don't think there will be a lot of movement on (1). She may get more that Truss does, but ultimately there are only 31 votes to distribute.
(2) is more likely, because Kemi has come across extremely well. But not, I suspect, well enough.
(3) is I think quite unlikely, because I think Sunak doesn't really want to face Badenoch in the final two. I think he'd much rather have Robotic Liz or Damaged Truss.
Kemi, with the benefit of two TV debates, managed to close the gap with Truss by just two MPs today. A gap of 13, and with her in current last position, is too much I suspect.
Robert, I'm not sure you are right in this case about there not being a Tug block vote.
I was very surprised to hear the claim from AMT that Tuggers would be sticking together but she came over as sincere and convincing in her belief. She said something like "we have stuck together so far/throughout and we will do so to the end". He seems to have supporters who see themselves as "we happy few, we band of brothers" who are willing to follow him wherever he leads.
Why would a young black woman become a Tory? I hope people on the left take the points she's making seriously. I also note that there is some evidence that US politics is starting to become less racialised in voting patterns
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
When it comes to the left/right dimension, Tugendhat and Badenoch are at opposite ends.
Tugendhat is an ex-army officer and noted China and Russia hawk who has also argued for tax cuts, investment tax breaks and deregulation. Is the gap between himself and Badenoch really so very wide?
There's no particular reason why at least some support couldn't migrate from his vote to hers, especially after the redistribution that took place in this round, which wasn't wholly intuitive.
It’s Mordaunt, the Navy reservist who is hawkish on Russia, who seems more likely to attract Tugendhat’s votes, or maybe the hawkish Truss. Badenoch has not particularly pushed a hawkish message. She appears more worried about the war on woke than the war on Ukraine.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Why would a young black woman become a Tory? I hope people on the left take the points she's making seriously. I also note that there is some evidence that US politics is starting to become less racialised in voting patterns
Is 32-ish young?
Yes
kle4 - age mid 30s
TBH I think fo myself as a youngster still mentally, in my 60s - but then I used to be pretty conservative in my politics ...
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
Kemi anti-establishment? She’s been less explicitly anti-Boris than Tugendhat or Mordaunt. Policy wise, she’s gone with culture war stuff that fits a Johnsonian right-wing populism.
She is now the only one who has never served in the disastrous and scandal ridden cabinets of the last two leaders. That was Tugendhat's pitch as well.
She didn’t serve in those Cabinets because she’s very junior, not because she took a principled stand against Johnson (or May). She had a government position under Johnson and worked with Sunak. She only resigned after Sunak. She is nothing like Tugendhat.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
Look, you know that and I know that, but that's irrelevant. The question is how far she can persuade ordinary Tory members that she is a break with the past as she has not served in the Johnson cabinet at any point. That's clearly what she's pitching for.
Doesn't say much for her honesty but nor does most of what she has said in this campaign anyway.
Why would a young black woman become a Tory? I hope people on the left take the points she's making seriously. I also note that there is some evidence that US politics is starting to become less racialised in voting patterns
Is 32-ish young?
To be pedantic she was either 30 or 31 when the video was filmed.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Blimey, far right politics has gotten really weird.
I remember some BNP guy around 20 years ago talking about their support for Jewish people, because he perceived them as anti-Muslim, and of course that was their new thing post 9/11.
Pocket Bibles (also Korans & etc) can & have served same life-saving function.
And it was his speech folded into this spectacle's case that save Teddy Roosevelt from assassin's bullet.
If it was that thick a speech, I guess the audience dodged a bullet too.
You guess wrong. From TR's wiki bio:
The bullet lodged in his chest after penetrating his steel eyeglass case and passing through a 50-page-thick single-folded copy of the speech titled "Progressive Cause Greater Than Any Individual", which he was carrying in his jacket. [The shooter John] Schrank was immediately disarmed (by Czech immigrant Frank Bukovsky), captured, and might have been lynched had Roosevelt not shouted for Schrank to remain unharmed. Roosevelt assured the crowd he was all right, then ordered police to take charge of Schrank and to make sure no violence was done to him.
As an experienced hunter and anatomist, Roosevelt correctly concluded that since he was not coughing blood, the bullet had not reached his lung. He declined suggestions to go to the hospital immediately and instead delivered a 90 minute speech. . . . Only after finishing his address did he accept medical attention.
I agree with rcs1000 that this hasn't been a factional contest, at least as far as outsiders can see. Johnson and Cummings have surely been operating in the background. But bloc votes are hard to discern from the eliminations to date.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
That's absolutely fucking hilarious. A racist, fascist 'party' instructing its members to vote for Kemi because she's anti-woke and not politically correct. You couldn't make it up. I'll bet Kemi is delighted by that endorsement.
There is a slight flaw in the Britain First plan, unless all their infiltrators are current Tory MPs!
The one who is going nowhere here is Penny. I don’t think that Badenock will overtake Truss tomorrow but she might well overtake Penny. Losing a vote at this stage is very poor. She could lose a lot more tomorrow. Her campaign has been woeful and the cancellation of the Sky debate has taken away her last chance of a decent performance. Vague, waffly, unreliable and possibly even untruthful. Just a disastrous campaign. If Kemi does overtake her Truss will be panicking. She has much more risk of losing to Kemi than Penny.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
When it comes to the left/right dimension, Tugendhat and Badenoch are at opposite ends.
Tugendhat is an ex-army officer and noted China and Russia hawk who has also argued for tax cuts, investment tax breaks and deregulation. Is the gap between himself and Badenoch really so very wide?
There's no particular reason why at least some support couldn't migrate from his vote to hers, especially after the redistribution that took place in this round, which wasn't wholly intuitive.
It’s Mordaunt, the Navy reservist who is hawkish on Russia, who seems more likely to attract Tugendhat’s votes, or maybe the hawkish Truss. Badenoch has not particularly pushed a hawkish message. She appears more worried about the war on woke than the war on Ukraine.
I reckon TT’s backers don’t trust either wild cannon Liz or purse strings Rishi with Ukraine. Who knows what Wallace has fed back. If they really are to vote in one block, then I think it’s a deal with Penny to carry her over the line but with assurances on defence spending. And probably with the condition of retaining Wallace and making TT Foreign Sec.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
That's absolutely fucking hilarious. A racist, fascist 'party' instructing its members to vote for Kemi because she's anti-woke and not politically correct. You couldn't make it up. I'll bet Kemi is delighted by that endorsement.
Surely that shows that they're (a) not that racist and/or (b) a bit thick?
I think both of those two things are probably true.
Much more b) than a). I've looked into Britain First - they are as racist as they come. Although they do have a stronger hatred of those of Asian origin than of black people.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
When it comes to the left/right dimension, Tugendhat and Badenoch are at opposite ends.
I'm not convinced Badenoch is quite that right-wing.
She's done service low-wage jobs and doesn't demonise unions, for one.
And there is also a fresh start v continuity of the Boris cabinet dimension.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Labour are well above 40%… in England and Wales.
It is the Scottish Labour findings which pull them down. Just 26% in this poll.
Labour are over 50% in five regions of England:
London 51% East Midlands 50% North East 72% North West 52% Y&H 60%
West Midlands -24 Eastern -28 South East -30 London -32 Wales -35 East Midlands -39 North West -42 South West -44 Scotland -47 Yorkshire & Humber -54 North East -60
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
That's absolutely fucking hilarious. A racist, fascist 'party' instructing its members to vote for Kemi because she's anti-woke and not politically correct. You couldn't make it up. I'll bet Kemi is delighted by that endorsement.
Surely that shows that they're (a) not that racist and/or (b) a bit thick?
I think both of those two things are probably true.
Much more b) than a). I've looked into Britain First - they are as racist as they come. Although they do have a stronger hatred of those of Asian origin than of black people.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
A woman on the Sky News Press Preview last night suggested that Kemi was Far Right. I thought it was a bit odd, but maybe she was on to something.
Another example of professional commentators, journalists and most of Twitter being unable to accurately describe political ideas. This is due to ignorance and emotional partisanship. Luckily PB is often more sophisticated.
The one who is going nowhere here is Penny. I don’t think that Badenock will overtake Truss tomorrow but she might well overtake Penny. Losing a vote at this stage is very poor. She could lose a lot more tomorrow. Her campaign has been woeful and the cancellation of the Sky debate has taken away her last chance of a decent performance. Vague, waffly, unreliable and possibly even untruthful. Just a disastrous campaign. If Kemi does overtake her Truss will be panicking. She has much more risk of losing to Kemi than Penny.
Yes, I think if it's Truss and Kemi in the final third (good chance Mordaunt's supporters shift elsewhere now) then Truss loses her big USP of being the right's only chance to stop Rishi.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
Kemi anti-establishment? She’s been less explicitly anti-Boris than Tugendhat or Mordaunt. Policy wise, she’s gone with culture war stuff that fits a Johnsonian right-wing populism.
She is now the only one who has never served in the disastrous and scandal ridden cabinets of the last two leaders. That was Tugendhat's pitch as well.
She didn’t serve in those Cabinets because she’s very junior, not because she took a principled stand against Johnson (or May). She had a government position under Johnson and worked with Sunak. She only resigned after Sunak. She is nothing like Tugendhat.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
The voters the Tories won over aren’t socialists. They are the people who refer to “political correctness gone mad” and want to give kids a clip round the ear. They want benefits cut and they think most Government spending is wasted, so can easily cut. They did vote Labour until Boris cut through, but they ain’t typical Labour voters. There’s a reason many of these places were trending Tory, like some of the midland blocks that fell. They look and feel like US Republican voters. That’s where we seem to be going, as the Tories also eventually lose the South East like they lost London.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Nigel Farage also endorsed Badenoch today 'To have any chance of holding the Red Wall, it is going to need a Prime Minister with personality, integrity and a radical programme to change lives. Of those left in the contest, only Kemi Badenoch has the genuine conviction to talk about legal and illegal immigration, completing Brexit by leaving the ECHR and ending the poison that has been taught to our children in schools. Her manner is refreshing in comparison to what we have become used to in Westminster politics.'
Farage is no fan of Sunak 'At least Rishi Sunak looks like a Prime Minister should do and is capable of speaking for sixty seconds on a platform without referring to notes. But although he did back the Leave vote in 2016, albeit in a very low-profile way, he has done his best as Chancellor to pursue an EU-style agenda.
His appeal in the Red Wall seats would be limited at best and disastrous at worst (a recent poll of the Red Wall said 63% agree the former Chancellor is out of touch with working class people). I'm quite sure he would leave the Conservatives to a resounding election defeat at the next election.'
He is even more scathing about Truss 'Just think of it. A Remain-voting, former card-carrying and conference-speaking member of Liberal Democrats, who once endorsed Republicanism, a woman who voted for May's disastrous deal three times, will likely lead the Conservative Party and post-Brexit Britain. You simply couldn't make it up. It is possible that she now believes in dealing with the Northern Ireland protocol and genuine conservatism, but I doubt it. All I see here is a careerist. How did it come to this?
Missed the excitement. Just got in. I've had a theory for a while that the "Right", as in the far edges, has become as split as the Left. There are multiple cleavages now in which you can be on the Right of the Conservative Party, or to the Right of the Party, yet have virtually nothing in common with someone else in the same position. There really used to be only 2. Hardcore Thatcher was too soft. And outright racist. But look at the numerous fringe candidates who fought Wakefield.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 15m Confirmed. The Tories are now going to either elect their third female leader and Prime Minister or Britain’s first black Prime Minister. Labour, meanwhile, cling desperately to their white men from north London.
Isn't someone going to point out that Rishi is the only man left in it, and he's not black.
Not unless they want the label of pedant, which is a great and genuine honour on this website.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Labour are well above 40%… in England and Wales.
It is the Scottish Labour findings which pull them down. Just 26% in this poll.
Labour are over 50% in five regions of England:
London 51% East Midlands 50% North East 72% North West 52% Y&H 60%
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Labour are well above 40%… in England and Wales.
It is the Scottish Labour findings which pull them down. Just 26% in this poll.
Labour are over 50% in five regions of England:
London 51% East Midlands 50% North East 72% North West 52% Y&H 60%
Hm. I'd love to believe that Labour are on 72% in the North East. But that's just fantasy.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
Kemi anti-establishment? She’s been less explicitly anti-Boris than Tugendhat or Mordaunt. Policy wise, she’s gone with culture war stuff that fits a Johnsonian right-wing populism.
She is now the only one who has never served in the disastrous and scandal ridden cabinets of the last two leaders. That was Tugendhat's pitch as well.
She didn’t serve in those Cabinets because she’s very junior, not because she took a principled stand against Johnson (or May). She had a government position under Johnson and worked with Sunak. She only resigned after Sunak. She is nothing like Tugendhat.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
Look, you know that and I know that, but that's irrelevant. The question is how far she can persuade ordinary Tory members that she is a break with the past as she has not served in the Johnson cabinet at any point. That's clearly what she's pitching for.
Doesn't say much for her honesty but nor does most of what she has said in this campaign anyway.
No, it matters how far she can persuade Tory MPs, and they know all this.
Just got round to noticing that Truss and Badenoch have 129 votes between them, more than the 120 needed to go through the final round.
Yes. If we accept Rishi is certain to make the final 2 and also that there is a "right" vote of more than 120 MPs who would rather have Kemi and/or Truss than Penny in the final 2, then Penny has no chance of getting to the final 2.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Labour are well above 40%… in England and Wales.
It is the Scottish Labour findings which pull them down. Just 26% in this poll.
Labour are over 50% in five regions of England:
London 51% East Midlands 50% North East 72% North West 52% Y&H 60%
Hm. I'd love to believe that Labour are on 72% in the North East. But that's just fantasy.
On these, you need the “don’t know” numbers I think. I reckon a chunk of Tory voters are still only on strike.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Nigel Farage also endorsed Badenoch today 'To have any chance of holding the Red Wall, it is going to need a Prime Minister with personality, integrity and a radical programme to change lives. Of those left in the contest, only Kemi Badenoch has the genuine conviction to talk about legal and illegal immigration, completing Brexit by leaving the ECHR and ending the poison that has been taught to our children in schools. Her manner is refreshing in comparison to what we have become used to in Westminster politics.'
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
Kemi anti-establishment? She’s been less explicitly anti-Boris than Tugendhat or Mordaunt. Policy wise, she’s gone with culture war stuff that fits a Johnsonian right-wing populism.
She is now the only one who has never served in the disastrous and scandal ridden cabinets of the last two leaders. That was Tugendhat's pitch as well.
She didn’t serve in those Cabinets because she’s very junior, not because she took a principled stand against Johnson (or May). She had a government position under Johnson and worked with Sunak. She only resigned after Sunak. She is nothing like Tugendhat.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
Look, you know that and I know that, but that's irrelevant. The question is how far she can persuade ordinary Tory members that she is a break with the past as she has not served in the Johnson cabinet at any point. That's clearly what she's pitching for.
Doesn't say much for her honesty but nor does most of what she has said in this campaign anyway.
No, it matters how far she can persuade Tory MPs, and they know all this.
They all knew Johnson was a tainted failure too, and they still voted him in.
The one who is going nowhere here is Penny. I don’t think that Badenock will overtake Truss tomorrow but she might well overtake Penny. Losing a vote at this stage is very poor. She could lose a lot more tomorrow. Her campaign has been woeful and the cancellation of the Sky debate has taken away her last chance of a decent performance. Vague, waffly, unreliable and possibly even untruthful. Just a disastrous campaign. If Kemi does overtake her Truss will be panicking. She has much more risk of losing to Kemi than Penny.
Yes, I think if it's Truss and Kemi in the final third (good chance Mordaunt's supporters shift elsewhere now) then Truss loses her big USP of being the right's only chance to stop Rishi.
OTOH if Kemi goes out she backs Rishi and this is absolutely all over. Now that would be an interesting government.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
When it comes to the left/right dimension, Tugendhat and Badenoch are at opposite ends.
Tugendhat is an ex-army officer and noted China and Russia hawk who has also argued for tax cuts, investment tax breaks and deregulation. Is the gap between himself and Badenoch really so very wide?
There's no particular reason why at least some support couldn't migrate from his vote to hers, especially after the redistribution that took place in this round, which wasn't wholly intuitive.
It’s Mordaunt, the Navy reservist who is hawkish on Russia, who seems more likely to attract Tugendhat’s votes, or maybe the hawkish Truss. Badenoch has not particularly pushed a hawkish message. She appears more worried about the war on woke than the war on Ukraine.
OTOH this conclusion leans heavily on an assumption that the motivations of Tugendhat, and especially of his supporters, are dominated by thinking on foreign policy to the exclusion of all else. Not necessarily true.
West Midlands -24 Eastern -28 South East -30 London -32 Wales -35 East Midlands -39 North West -42 South West -44 Scotland -47 Yorkshire & Humber -54 North East -60
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Nigel Farage also endorsed Badenoch today 'To have any chance of holding the Red Wall, it is going to need a Prime Minister with personality, integrity and a radical programme to change lives. Of those left in the contest, only Kemi Badenoch has the genuine conviction to talk about legal and illegal immigration, completing Brexit by leaving the ECHR and ending the poison that has been taught to our children in schools. Her manner is refreshing in comparison to what we have become used to in Westminster politics.'
I cashed out of Kemi this morning. She's probably going win now!
I don't think she's probably going to win. I think she has about a 25% chance of edging past Truss and if she does an 80% chance of then leapfrogging Penny into the final by assimilation of Trusses old votes, where she stands a 65% chance of beating Rishi.
So I think she should be about 8/1 and not 20/1 and so her current odds are value.
I don't think she's anywhere near a 25% chance of leapfrogging Truss, much as I would like to see it. I think it's more like 10%.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
Kemi anti-establishment? She’s been less explicitly anti-Boris than Tugendhat or Mordaunt. Policy wise, she’s gone with culture war stuff that fits a Johnsonian right-wing populism.
She is now the only one who has never served in the disastrous and scandal ridden cabinets of the last two leaders. That was Tugendhat's pitch as well.
She didn’t serve in those Cabinets because she’s very junior, not because she took a principled stand against Johnson (or May). She had a government position under Johnson and worked with Sunak. She only resigned after Sunak. She is nothing like Tugendhat.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
The voters the Tories won over aren’t socialists. They are the people who refer to “political correctness gone mad” and want to give kids a clip round the ear. They want benefits cut and they think most Government spending is wasted, so can easily cut. They did vote Labour until Boris cut through, but they ain’t typical Labour voters. There’s a reason many of these places were trending Tory, like some of the midland blocks that fell. They look and feel like US Republican voters. That’s where we seem to be going, as the Tories also eventually lose the South East like they lost London.
They’ll like Kemi’s talk of self-reliance, but they won’t like the end of levelling up. They don’t think the undeserving should get handouts, but they want their public services to work.
The one who is going nowhere here is Penny. I don’t think that Badenock will overtake Truss tomorrow but she might well overtake Penny. Losing a vote at this stage is very poor. She could lose a lot more tomorrow. Her campaign has been woeful and the cancellation of the Sky debate has taken away her last chance of a decent performance. Vague, waffly, unreliable and possibly even untruthful. Just a disastrous campaign. If Kemi does overtake her Truss will be panicking. She has much more risk of losing to Kemi than Penny.
All very plausible, except that it is TT that is leaving the stage today.
I would expect Penny to pick up at least 10 of his votes, and maybe more like 15.
Given that a car doesn't stop most bullets, that doesn't sound terribly likely?
Could be from a pistol or SMG, ie low energy. Or a partly spent rifle round, or one that had ricocheted (the ones which didn't stop, we wouldn't hear about).
Or the bullet was traveling at an angle. Much easier to deflect something if it's not heading directly at you.
It was travelling upwards at the point of entry, and lodged in his fourth vertebrae (I think). It remained there in fact all his life as it didn't seem to be doing nearly as much harm as surgery would.
May have contributed to Theodore Roosevelt early demise, in 1919, when he was the leading (if as yet unannounced) candidate for the Republican nomination in 1920, which a nothing like Warren Harding won in a landslide.
Definitely contributory was Roosevelt's lingering illness and debilitation from his epic, near fatal trek down the River of Doubt - renamed Rio Roosevelt - just after his 1912 Bull Moose campaign.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Labour are well above 40%… in England and Wales.
It is the Scottish Labour findings which pull them down. Just 26% in this poll.
Labour are over 50% in five regions of England:
London 51% East Midlands 50% North East 72% North West 52% Y&H 60%
Hm. I'd love to believe that Labour are on 72% in the North East. But that's just fantasy.
Not convinced by East Midlands either.
Though I do note that Labour are only a few percent behind Con in SE England outside London.
Just in case she missed it in the last thread, I wanted to say thank you to cyclefree to replying to me in the last thread.
Trans issues are hard work, not least because the majority of trans people are terribly vulnerable and at risk of sexual assault themselves - even if there's a small number of dangerous and predatory people who self identify as "trans".
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Nigel Farage also endorsed Badenoch today 'To have any chance of holding the Red Wall, it is going to need a Prime Minister with personality, integrity and a radical programme to change lives. Of those left in the contest, only Kemi Badenoch has the genuine conviction to talk about legal and illegal immigration, completing Brexit by leaving the ECHR and ending the poison that has been taught to our children in schools. Her manner is refreshing in comparison to what we have become used to in Westminster politics.'
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
Kemi anti-establishment? She’s been less explicitly anti-Boris than Tugendhat or Mordaunt. Policy wise, she’s gone with culture war stuff that fits a Johnsonian right-wing populism.
She is now the only one who has never served in the disastrous and scandal ridden cabinets of the last two leaders. That was Tugendhat's pitch as well.
She didn’t serve in those Cabinets because she’s very junior, not because she took a principled stand against Johnson (or May). She had a government position under Johnson and worked with Sunak. She only resigned after Sunak. She is nothing like Tugendhat.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
The voters the Tories won over aren’t socialists. They are the people who refer to “political correctness gone mad” and want to give kids a clip round the ear. They want benefits cut and they think most Government spending is wasted, so can easily cut. They did vote Labour until Boris cut through, but they ain’t typical Labour voters. There’s a reason many of these places were trending Tory, like some of the midland blocks that fell. They look and feel like US Republican voters. That’s where we seem to be going, as the Tories also eventually lose the South East like they lost London.
They’ll like Kemi’s talk of self-reliance, but they won’t like the end of levelling up. They don’t think the undeserving should get handouts, but they want their public services to work.
They only want service cuts for other people, the scroungers, not themselves or their families.
You also need to factor in that a certain section of TT support is there because they see him as the best to attract swing voters. They might not viscerally want to stop anyone. But are looking for who will win an election, or at least save their seats?
I agree with rcs1000 that this hasn't been a factional contest, at least as far as outsiders can see. Johnson and Cummings have surely been operating in the background. But bloc votes are hard to discern from the eliminations to date.
The power of the ERG, the power Mogg had presiding over it, has been gutted by these 3 years of Boris government who they put in there. All the candidates have committed to Net Zero 50, all but Badenoch have backed away from Culture War. The new leader doesn’t inherit an economic strategy from Boris, because he never had one, but there is not much obvious policy in this election how to go back to being Conservative economists and pro business again, every sane economist has laughed at the immediate tax cut idea, and the candidates have dropped themselves into bother on how to pay for them.
It’s a long way back for the Conservatives from here, no quick fix dumping Boris 😟
I can’t believe Truss would see a single vote from them given she will end up a puppet of the ERG so hardly one nation Tories .
Assume AMT and nico are both correct, then we have a syllogism.
Premise 1: All Tug's voters will vote for only one of Rishi, Penny, Liz or Kemi and it won't be Penny (AMT) Premise 2: None of Tug's voters will vote for Liz (nico)
Conclusion: All Tug's voters will vote for Rishi or Kemi.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
Kemi anti-establishment? She’s been less explicitly anti-Boris than Tugendhat or Mordaunt. Policy wise, she’s gone with culture war stuff that fits a Johnsonian right-wing populism.
She is now the only one who has never served in the disastrous and scandal ridden cabinets of the last two leaders. That was Tugendhat's pitch as well.
She didn’t serve in those Cabinets because she’s very junior, not because she took a principled stand against Johnson (or May). She had a government position under Johnson and worked with Sunak. She only resigned after Sunak. She is nothing like Tugendhat.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
The voters the Tories won over aren’t socialists. They are the people who refer to “political correctness gone mad” and want to give kids a clip round the ear. They want benefits cut and they think most Government spending is wasted, so can easily cut. They did vote Labour until Boris cut through, but they ain’t typical Labour voters. There’s a reason many of these places were trending Tory, like some of the midland blocks that fell. They look and feel like US Republican voters. That’s where we seem to be going, as the Tories also eventually lose the South East like they lost London.
They’ll like Kemi’s talk of self-reliance, but they won’t like the end of levelling up. They don’t think the undeserving should get handouts, but they want their public services to work.
They only want service cuts for other people, the scroungers, not themselves or their families.
None of the candidates has called for the end of MPs' expenses.
Badenoch seems to be sinking into my no way category together with Truss .
For all her faults I hope Penny M gets through with Sunak . The thought of Farage celebrating a Badenoch win makes me want to vomit . Similarly Dacre celebrating Truss is too much to bear .
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
That's absolutely fucking hilarious. A racist, fascist 'party' instructing its members to vote for Kemi because she's anti-woke and not politically correct. You couldn't make it up. I'll bet Kemi is delighted by that endorsement.
Obama got an endorsement from the head of the US Nazi Party for some reason that I can't remember, but basically ideology trumps race for many right-wingers.
I'm surprised how many transfers went to Rishi Rich this evening. The right wing block vote isn't a block after all.
While the squilionaire is looking safe to come top, still all to play for for the second Champions League spot.
It’s roundabout between camps not straight transfers Sandy. Truss started with centrists who didn’t fancy Rishi, but has shed two dozen to Rishi most likely, due to her unelectable performance.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Badernoch seems to be sinking into my no way category together with Truss .
For all her faults I hope Penny M gets through with Sunak . The thought of Farage celebrating a Badenoch win makes me want to vomit . Similarly Dacron celebrating Truss is too much to bear .
If it ends up Penny v. Rishi you end up with a very angry right wing.
I see the idolising of Kemi Badenoch continues unabated but the fact remains she hasn't attracted the large number of MPs from eliminated candidates to enable her to break into the top three. Yes, a few support her but ultimately the MPs don't seem as enamoured of her at this time.
Once she's served some serious Cabinet time it will be a different proposition but she'll have had the same opportunity to make friends and enemies as the bigger beasts..
For now, there's this vague perception, alone of the candidates, she can somehow "beat" Starmer and labour because they will have no response to her. This notion of the desirability of the perpetuation of the Conservatives in Government is in itself absurd. All parties at some point need a spell in Opposition to regroup, renew and rethink.
Comments
So I think she should be about 8/1 and not 20/1 and so her current odds are value.
There is some benefits to decisiveness. I forget who it was but some group or commentator a few months ago rated something as a 55% chance. I feel like it would have been simpler to just admit they didn't have a bloody clue.
She's done service low-wage jobs and doesn't demonise unions, for one.
As for TT’s votes. Some may have missed the LBC interviews. He and Kemi were interviewed separately but described each other as friends. There’s mutual respect there. Also don’t forget TT’s underarm bowl to Penny last night, he’s got no problem with her winning I don’t think and her campaign manager on Sky said immediately after that TT and Penny would make a formidable team.
What motivated the TT voters and can he carry them to one candidate? Most likely a) an aversion to Boris’s Cabinet, b) national security, c) centrism, in that order.
I would look at that and think fewer than people suppose will switch to Sunak and fairly well none to Truss, given that TT views British foreign policy as doggydoo in recent years.
So it then depends on whether they swing to Kemi, knocking out Truss, or break 50-50 giving Penny clear air to Truss.
Final round. Who do Kemi’s votes go to? Well I’d assume that any TT transfers go to Penny. By then they’ve had every chance to vote for Sunak and still kept voting for the outsider candidate. Not as many obsess about cocks and fannies as is assumed, so I suspect Penny picks up a few more on top. And she squeaks second. Unless Kemi knocks out Truss, in which case she becomes PM.
Either way, lay Truss. Sorry BR.
Nor do I think her low tax, low spend, small state, the government can’t do anything message is going to be very appealing to the Red Wall.
He may have been the male Priti Patel.
I think both of those two things are probably true.
Truss was expected to hoover up the Braverman vote and make progress. The fact that she didn't make as big a gain as was expected means that the market is selling. The fact that she's closed the gap on Mordaunt isn't so very important to the calculus at this stage.
I was very surprised to hear the claim from AMT that Tuggers would be sticking together but she came over as sincere and convincing in her belief. She said something like "we have stuck together so far/throughout and we will do so to the end". He seems to have supporters who see themselves as "we happy few, we band of brothers" who are willing to follow him wherever he leads.
That's how I read it.
kle4 - age mid 30s
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Doesn't say much for her honesty but nor does most of what she has said in this campaign anyway.
The bullet lodged in his chest after penetrating his steel eyeglass case and passing through a 50-page-thick single-folded copy of the speech titled "Progressive Cause Greater Than Any Individual", which he was carrying in his jacket. [The shooter John] Schrank was immediately disarmed (by Czech immigrant Frank Bukovsky), captured, and might have been lynched had Roosevelt not shouted for Schrank to remain unharmed. Roosevelt assured the crowd he was all right, then ordered police to take charge of Schrank and to make sure no violence was done to him.
As an experienced hunter and anatomist, Roosevelt correctly concluded that since he was not coughing blood, the bullet had not reached his lung. He declined suggestions to go to the hospital immediately and instead delivered a 90 minute speech. . . . Only after finishing his address did he accept medical attention.
My current preference:
Mordaunt
Badenoch
Sunak
Truss
Vague, waffly, unreliable and possibly even untruthful. Just a disastrous campaign.
If Kemi does overtake her Truss will be panicking. She has much more risk of losing to Kemi than Penny.
It is the Scottish Labour findings which pull them down. Just 26% in this poll.
Labour are over 50% in five regions of England:
London 51%
East Midlands 50%
North East 72%
North West 52%
Y&H 60%
West Midlands -24
Eastern -28
South East -30
London -32
Wales -35
East Midlands -39
North West -42
South West -44
Scotland -47
Yorkshire & Humber -54
North East -60
GB -37
R&W
I also do takeaway.
https://twitter.com/pennymordaunt/status/1549130737726767107?s=21&t=82jAi2OFwahCtTfBFUhPJA
Can’t wait 🤗
Farage is no fan of Sunak 'At least Rishi Sunak looks like a Prime Minister should do and is capable of speaking for sixty seconds on a platform without referring to notes. But although he did back the Leave vote in 2016, albeit in a very low-profile way, he has done his best as Chancellor to pursue an EU-style agenda.
His appeal in the Red Wall seats would be limited at best and disastrous at worst (a recent poll of the Red Wall said 63% agree the former Chancellor is out of touch with working class people). I'm quite sure he would leave the Conservatives to a resounding election defeat at the next election.'
He is even more scathing about Truss 'Just think of it. A Remain-voting, former card-carrying and conference-speaking member of Liberal Democrats, who once endorsed Republicanism, a woman who voted for May's disastrous deal three times, will likely lead the Conservative Party and post-Brexit Britain. You simply couldn't make it up. It is possible that she now believes in dealing with the Northern Ireland protocol and genuine conservatism, but I doubt it. All I see here is a careerist. How did it come to this?
Her public performances are weak to the point of being laughable (just look at her reading out her closing statement last night) and she will not connect with working-class Britain.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/18/debates-show-tories-bigger-trouble-realise/
I've had a theory for a while that the "Right", as in the far edges, has become as split as the Left.
There are multiple cleavages now in which you can be on the Right of the Conservative Party, or to the Right of the Party, yet have virtually nothing in common with someone else in the same position.
There really used to be only 2. Hardcore Thatcher was too soft. And outright racist.
But look at the numerous fringe candidates who fought Wakefield.
This may have been covered.
I can’t believe Truss would see a single vote from them given she will end up a puppet of the ERG so hardly one nation Tories .
Talking to Tugendhat backers tonight there are two distinct camps - an 'anyone but Penny' camp and an 'anyone but Liz' camp
The 'anyone but Liz' camp appears to be the bigger of the two - which suggests that they will split
Feelings very strong on both sides
I AM SHOCKED!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
I would expect Penny to pick up at least 10 of his votes, and maybe more like 15.
Definitely contributory was Roosevelt's lingering illness and debilitation from his epic, near fatal trek down the River of Doubt - renamed Rio Roosevelt - just after his 1912 Bull Moose campaign.
Though I do note that Labour are only a few percent behind Con in SE England outside London.
Trans issues are hard work, not least because the majority of trans people are terribly vulnerable and at risk of sexual assault themselves - even if there's a small number of dangerous and predatory people who self identify as "trans".
I thank cyclefree for her reasonable comment.
While the squilionaire is looking safe to come top, still all to play for for the second Champions League spot.
They might not viscerally want to stop anyone.
But are looking for who will win an election, or at least save their seats?
It’s a long way back for the Conservatives from here, no quick fix dumping Boris 😟
Premise 1: All Tug's voters will vote for only one of Rishi, Penny, Liz or Kemi and it won't be Penny (AMT)
Premise 2: None of Tug's voters will vote for Liz (nico)
Conclusion: All Tug's voters will vote for Rishi or Kemi.
For all her faults I hope Penny M gets through with Sunak . The thought of Farage celebrating a Badenoch win makes me want to vomit . Similarly Dacre celebrating Truss is too much to bear .
I see the idolising of Kemi Badenoch continues unabated but the fact remains she hasn't attracted the large number of MPs from eliminated candidates to enable her to break into the top three. Yes, a few support her but ultimately the MPs don't seem as enamoured of her at this time.
Once she's served some serious Cabinet time it will be a different proposition but she'll have had the same opportunity to make friends and enemies as the bigger beasts..
For now, there's this vague perception, alone of the candidates, she can somehow "beat" Starmer and labour because they will have no response to her. This notion of the desirability of the perpetuation of the Conservatives in Government is in itself absurd. All parties at some point need a spell in Opposition to regroup, renew and rethink.