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My 250/1 Sunak bet looking even more like a winner – politicalbetting.com
My 250/1 Sunak bet looking even more like a winner – politicalbetting.com
Chgs. w/ second round:+14 | Sunak -1 | Mordaunt+7 | Truss+9 | Badenoch—-1 | Tugendhat
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Probably repeating what others have said. But if Tuggers go to Kemi in the next round then Kemi leapfrogs Truss, Kemi gets most of Truss' transfers in the final round and gets to the final and then Kemi beats Rishi in the members votes. So potentially Tug makes Kemi PM ???
@paulwaugh
·
28m
Latest leadership votes mean Johnson's nemesis
@RishiSunak
is all but guaranteed getting in the final 2. Truss's 'Continuity Johnson' candidacy gaining just 7 of Braverman votes will worry her camp.
Tugendhat votes could catapult
@KemiBadenoch
into 3rd place in next round..
I guess the question is out of the remaining three, which is the candidate the TT MPs wouldn't want? KB has shifted her stance which suggests she has 'flexibility' while Truss is trying to make herself as Ms Brexit. I would think they believe they would get more out of KB than LT given the latter's open ERG support. As for BJ's supporters, I don't think they care who goes through as long as Sunak loses (and they may think KB has a better chance of making that happen).
Now in the happy, drunken queue at the Fishmarket at Newhaven.
I think there is an argument to say only +7 for Truss looks disappointing given the Braverman / Francois backing plus from the BJ loyalists.
2.08 Rishi Sunak 48%
3.4 Liz Truss 29%
5.7 Penny Mordaunt 18%
19 Kemi Badenoch 5%
310 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.1 Rishi Sunak 48%
3.35 Liz Truss 30%
5.6 Penny Mordaunt 18%
18 Kemi Badenoch 6%
To be in final two
1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
1.68 Liz Truss 60%
2.62 Penny Mordaunt 38%
9 Kemi Badenoch 11%
He can confirm that either it will be Rishi (an Asian) or Britain's 3rd female prime minister, and possibly a minority one.
Put it this way, I still think it's too close to call on the second spot.
If I were Rishi I'd want to be facing her. He can then make a couple of anti-Woke moves and give Kemi a big job to seal the deal.
Personally think it's pretty decent result for Sunak, considering the wacking he took thanks to Boris (and himself) just a few months ago, and also the fractious (even by Tory standards) state of the Tory Party.
Clearly a CUP mega-clusterfucq. Couldn't happen to nicer bunch of girls, boys & Bullingtonians (actual & wannabe).
I'm not sure she makes it through then though.
Though Braverman's endorsement for Truss made little difference, only 7 of her 27 backers voted for Truss tonight
This is quite an eye opener. A talk from Kemi (Adegoke) at TED Euston from about 10 years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1ulBcFCt-E
Why would a young black woman become a Tory? I hope people on the left take the points she's making seriously. I also note that there is some evidence that US politics is starting to become less racialised in voting patterns
If Truss were halfway intelligent or competent she would have this stitched up by now. The fact she is consistently coming third says an awful lot.
So, can Badenoch leapfrog Truss tomorrow?
Yes, absolutely. But it's not very likely.
And it can happen in one of three ways (or a combination):
1. She gets a decent share of TT's support
2. She gets direct Truss-to-Badenoch switchers (or Morduant-to-Badenoch)
3. Sunak decides to lend some of his support
For what it's worth, I don't think there will be a lot of movement on (1). She may get more that Truss does, but ultimately there are only 31 votes to distribute.
(2) is more likely, because Kemi has come across extremely well. But not, I suspect, well enough.
(3) is I think quite unlikely, because I think Sunak doesn't really want to face Badenoch in the final two. I think he'd much rather have Robotic Liz or Damaged Truss.
Kemi, with the benefit of two TV debates, managed to close the gap with Truss by just two MPs today. A gap of 13, and with her in current last position, is too much I suspect.
It's not obvious where she gets extra new votes from in the next round (how many TT votes would really go Truss?) so if she loses 5-6 MPs and Kemi gains 8-9 of TT then she's out and Kemi goes through.
And, if she goes through, she probably gets the vast majority of Truss leapfrogging Penny into the final.
That's Rishi and Kemi.
That. Is. A. Disgrace.
Don’t take it from bias old me, take from The Mouth Of Sauron - admittedly Iain DuncanSmith spun it as Truss with the momentum, but his face was shock and disappointment, his eyes told a differentl story.
🤗
It is one of those bets where, even if I lose, I will feel like I have won.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1549063999605465089?s=20&t=2Kf6VQeGl6K10QmTiiG9aQ
Horde of young Boris's running around Kyiv only going so far. Need to do right thing AND prime the pump.
iPhone allegedly stops bullet, saving Ukrainian soldier’s life
https://9to5mac.com/2022/07/18/iphone-stops-bullet/
This, combined with the secret ballot, means that the ebbs and flows are pretty unpredictable. The idea that x's voters will swing to y has already been confounded.
Today should have been when she catapulted herself up to or beyond PM who has had a shocker of a weekend. Instead she is still behind.
I also think it's more likely Badenoch could take Truss' votes with her into the final three than vice versa. That is a consideration for Truss' backers as well.
And it was his speech folded into this spectacle's case that save Teddy Roosevelt from assassin's bullet.
She's probably going win now!
Edit - more here including some photos.
https://www.history.com/news/shot-in-the-chest-100-years-ago-teddy-roosevelt-kept-on-talking
Firstly, she doesn't have a solid block of "Trussites". From the outside, it looks like a good chunk of her support comes from those who want their own agenda pursued (the ERGers) or to stop Sunak from being PM (the Johnsonites). Neither of those blocks are backing her because they think she is great - which means they are liable to switch if they think there is a better bet around.
She also has the problem of having aligned herself with the ERG faction. While that is a decent block, it is also disliked by other factions. There may be some MPs who think knocking her out now diminishes the influence of the ERG block in Parliament.
Finally, there is the question of how many votes she got because she was perceived as the only "credible" right-wing candidate in the race. Even post-the weekend, they may have stayed with her given what they thought was the certainty of Braverman's vote going over. Post-tonight, some of her backers may think Badenoch is the better bet.
There's no particular reason why at least some support couldn't migrate from his vote to hers, especially after the redistribution that took place in this round, which wasn't wholly intuitive.
That would imply 90%+ certainty. It's nowhere near that.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1549100073241427969
Lab 42% (nc)
Con 32% (+1)
LD 12% (nc)
Grn 5% (nc)
SNP 4% (nc)
Ref 3% (-2)
oth 2% (+1)