Well that debate wasn’t very edifying, on either side. Hodge the stand out performer for her forensic exemplifying of government waste and corruption. Rayner was also strong in winding up.
Badernoch seems to be sinking into my no way category together with Truss .
For all her faults I hope Penny M gets through with Sunak . The thought of Farage celebrating a Badenoch win makes me want to vomit . Similarly Dacron celebrating Truss is too much to bear .
If it ends up Penny v. Rishi you end up with a very angry right wing.
That sounds great ! Should be fun for us political junkies in here !
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Given that a car doesn't stop most bullets, that doesn't sound terribly likely?
Could be from a pistol or SMG, ie low energy. Or a partly spent rifle round, or one that had ricocheted (the ones which didn't stop, we wouldn't hear about).
Or a “bad round” - sometimes, due to damp or bad storage deteriorating the propellant you can get a bullet that barely makes it out of the muzzle.
Badernoch seems to be sinking into my no way category together with Truss .
For all her faults I hope Penny M gets through with Sunak . The thought of Farage celebrating a Badenoch win makes me want to vomit . Similarly Dacron celebrating Truss is too much to bear .
If it ends up Penny v. Rishi you end up with a very angry right wing.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
When it comes to the left/right dimension, Tugendhat and Badenoch are at opposite ends.
Tugendhat is an ex-army officer and noted China and Russia hawk who has also argued for tax cuts, investment tax breaks and deregulation. Is the gap between himself and Badenoch really so very wide?
There's no particular reason why at least some support couldn't migrate from his vote to hers, especially after the redistribution that took place in this round, which wasn't wholly intuitive.
It’s Mordaunt, the Navy reservist who is hawkish on Russia, who seems more likely to attract Tugendhat’s votes, or maybe the hawkish Truss. Badenoch has not particularly pushed a hawkish message. She appears more worried about the war on woke than the war on Ukraine.
OTOH this conclusion leans heavily on an assumption that the motivations of Tugendhat, and especially of his supporters, are dominated by thinking on foreign policy to the exclusion of all else. Not necessarily true.
As a serious politician and man of principle, Tug-End will consider the options carefully...
...and endorse the candidate he most wants to shag.
UK Offshore Wind Costs 4 Times Less Than Gas-Fired Thermal Generation
When the smoke cleared and all the final bids were tallied, more than 7 gigawatts of new offshore wind energy will be added to the nation’s grid over the next 5 years at £44 per MWh. That is one quarter of what electricity from gas fired thermal generation today, according to Carbon Brief. In addition, 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity also won contracts at an average £55 per MWh and 0.9 GW of new onshore wind was bid in at £50 per MWh. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/17/uk-offshore-wind-costs-4-times-less-than-gas-fired-thermal-generation/
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Labour are well above 40%… in England and Wales.
It is the Scottish Labour findings which pull them down. Just 26% in this poll.
Labour are over 50% in five regions of England:
London 51% East Midlands 50% North East 72% North West 52% Y&H 60%
Hm. I'd love to believe that Labour are on 72% in the North East. But that's just fantasy.
Not convinced by East Midlands either.
Though I do note that Labour are only a few percent behind Con in SE England outside London.
It flatters to deceive, because in half the SE seats many Labour people think that the LDs have the better shot, so vote for them tactically. Sometimes that will be right and sometimes not, and in mid-campaign with leaflets pouring in, it's hard to be sure.
West Midlands -24 Eastern -28 South East -30 London -32 Wales -35 East Midlands -39 North West -42 South West -44 Scotland -47 Yorkshire & Humber -54 North East -60
GB -37
R&W
Strewth. Those NE figures.
Yorkshire and Humber isn't that much better but it's not surprising because the Tories have clearly failed with Levelling up.
Heck it's possible to argue that the only place being levelled up is Manchester and only then on a shoestring.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
This isn't 1995. For a start, the Tories have ditched the guy who was behind.
Interesting that Tom Tugendhat supporter Anne-Marie Trevelyan just praised Kemi Badenoch's campaign as well as TT's. Maybe she could get some votes from TT supporters, which is not what I was expecting before.
She's now more or less the sole remaining anti-establishment candidate. That probably counts for quite a lot.
When it comes to the left/right dimension, Tugendhat and Badenoch are at opposite ends.
Tugendhat is an ex-army officer and noted China and Russia hawk who has also argued for tax cuts, investment tax breaks and deregulation. Is the gap between himself and Badenoch really so very wide?
There's no particular reason why at least some support couldn't migrate from his vote to hers, especially after the redistribution that took place in this round, which wasn't wholly intuitive.
It’s Mordaunt, the Navy reservist who is hawkish on Russia, who seems more likely to attract Tugendhat’s votes, or maybe the hawkish Truss. Badenoch has not particularly pushed a hawkish message. She appears more worried about the war on woke than the war on Ukraine.
OTOH this conclusion leans heavily on an assumption that the motivations of Tugendhat, and especially of his supporters, are dominated by thinking on foreign policy to the exclusion of all else. Not necessarily true.
As a serious politician and man of principle, Tug-End will consider the options carefully...
...and endorse the candidate he most wants to shag.
Good play on names from Mr RENT TOOL, I guess we know how you earn a bob on the side hur hur hur
That’s an extraordinarily good film. One of the best I’ve ever seen.
This is why I say, don’t write off Penny.
But she was talking up her own 'legendary' video yesterday and how she didn't appear in it, as it was not about her (even though it is supposed to be).
But it is a good video - natural and heartfelt, without seeming phony.
Edit: Now out of her hands though - without a debate performance, how is she going to turn back the momentum? Or is she just that confident Tugendhat's batch will come her way?
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
This isn't 1995.
It's 1995 redux but with a useless tosser trying to lead labour
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
Different methodology perchance? Blair's lead over the Tories wasn't 43 points in 1997.
Kemi Badenoch is the choice of the far right which is why all genuine Conservatives should reject her, I'm sure Rishi, Penny, and Liz will mention this.
Britain First have just sent out a press release claiming to have thousands of members who can vote in the Conservative leadership race, and urging them all to vote for Kemi Badenoch
Blimey, far right politics has gotten really weird.
There was once this Pakistani heritage chap in Scotland who joined the Scottish Defence League because he was sick and tired of immigrants coming over here.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
This isn't 1995.
It's 1995 redux but with a useless tosser trying to lead labour
But the Tories have ditched their floundering democratically elected PM. So not really. None of which makes SKS any better. But it makes the Tories less worse. At least for now.
What is leaping out at me from these double digit leads, although Tory vote is 32 minus of late, the antipasti is only around 59, and Labour can barely break 40.
The “Starmer fans please explain” team are a bit right in that labour are not increasing their %.
Including SNP it's 63
Sir Keepit Soporific
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
Different methodology perchance? Blair's lead over the Tories wasn't 43 points in 1997.
And an outlier, sure. That's just the kind of thinking I encourage in my CBT classes
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
That’s an extraordinarily good film. One of the best I’ve ever seen.
This is why I say, don’t write off Penny.
When you watch that video, it’s laughable that the Tory Party are instead coalescing around a tax dodging billionaire, much less one that’s a PPE Goldmans alumni. Penny really norsed up that first debate but it’s still recoverable, just, if she manages to get enough TT transfers tomorrow.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
But BoJo has been dumped. SKS is no young Tony. No one, least of all him, claims he is.
I cashed out of Kemi this morning. She's probably going win now!
I don't think she's probably going to win. I think she has about a 25% chance of edging past Truss and if she does an 80% chance of then leapfrogging Penny into the final by assimilation of Trusses old votes, where she stands a 65% chance of beating Rishi.
So I think she should be about 8/1 and not 20/1 and so her current odds are value.
I don't think she's anywhere near a 25% chance of leapfrogging Truss, much as I would like to see it. I think it's more like 10%.
I don't think it's that low. Truss only picked up a 1/3rd of the Braverman transfers she was expecting. She's barely advanced. It's very unlikely she gets more than 2-3 from TT, if that.
Defectors from her camp /Penny's camp and Kemi picking up a bit of support from TT to edge it is easily a 1/4 shot right now.
UK Offshore Wind Costs 4 Times Less Than Gas-Fired Thermal Generation
When the smoke cleared and all the final bids were tallied, more than 7 gigawatts of new offshore wind energy will be added to the nation’s grid over the next 5 years at £44 per MWh. That is one quarter of what electricity from gas fired thermal generation today, according to Carbon Brief. In addition, 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity also won contracts at an average £55 per MWh and 0.9 GW of new onshore wind was bid in at £50 per MWh. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/17/uk-offshore-wind-costs-4-times-less-than-gas-fired-thermal-generation/
That's great news, as long as it is comparing like-with-like. How much capacity for offshore wind is still unexploited?
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
The opposition parties may be disappointed by a government majority of 111 in the confidence debate vote. If I was an opposition supporter I would have wanted every single member of the opposition to vote in this division, even though it was only a symbolic vote.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
But BoJo has been dumped. SKS is no young Tony. No one, least of all him, claims he is.
Dumped to be replaced by a gimp, a gimp, a gimp or a gimp. And all those gimps are less vulnerable to SKS's pitifully meagre skillset than Bojo was.
Probably the more interesting question is why Farage has done this now.
If I hazard a guess it's to send a signal to the ERG / Red Wall camps that a KB leadership would probably mean no Reform U.K. fighting the election in 2024 but a Sunak / Truss PM would.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
But BoJo has been dumped. SKS is no young Tony. No one, least of all him, claims he is.
Dumped to be replaced by a gimp, a gimp, a gimp or a gimp. And all those gimps are less vulnerable to SKS's pitifully meagre skillset than Bojo was.
Well. That's as maybe. We'll see. SKS is not very impressive. Neither are any of these. We are agreed there. Who will win from here is far from certain imho.
The opposition parties may be disappointed by a government majority of 111 in the confidence debate vote. If I was an opposition supporter I would have wanted every single member of the opposition to vote in this division, even though it was only a symbolic vote.
I am really surprised that they took part at all. What exactly was the upside? I would have left the Tories on their own and made them look even more ridiculous in voting for themselves.
My Finnish-speaking brother searched Finnish social media and couldn’t find anything so, sadly, unless more info is forthcoming from @kamski we won’t know what that rumour is supposed to be…
UK Offshore Wind Costs 4 Times Less Than Gas-Fired Thermal Generation
When the smoke cleared and all the final bids were tallied, more than 7 gigawatts of new offshore wind energy will be added to the nation’s grid over the next 5 years at £44 per MWh. That is one quarter of what electricity from gas fired thermal generation today, according to Carbon Brief. In addition, 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity also won contracts at an average £55 per MWh and 0.9 GW of new onshore wind was bid in at £50 per MWh. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/17/uk-offshore-wind-costs-4-times-less-than-gas-fired-thermal-generation/
When I am benign and gentle dictator of the world, people who use expressions like "4 times less" will be torn apart with horses.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
That’s an extraordinarily good film. One of the best I’ve ever seen.
This is why I say, don’t write off Penny.
But she was talking up her own 'legendary' video yesterday and how she didn't appear in it, as it was not about her (even though it is supposed to be).
But it is a good video - natural and heartfelt, without seeming phony.
Edit: Now out of her hands though - without a debate performance, how is she going to turn back the momentum? Or is she just that confident Tugendhat's batch will come her way?
If that had been her first video instead of some pompous prat coming out with platitudes over Jupiter but telling us nothing about a not particularly well known candidate she would still be in the race and with a half decent chance of winning it. But it wasn't and it is now probably too late. Maybe next time Penny.
My Finnish-speaking brother searched Finnish social media and couldn’t find anything so, sadly, unless more info is forthcoming from @kamski we won’t know what that rumour is supposed to be…
It is quite entertaining watching people trying to process the idea that Nigel Farage and Britain First support Kemi Badenoch. It adds to the sense that the left will have a complete breakdown if she actually got elected leader. They will have no option than to suggest that she is being used as the mouthpiece of racist white people, thus revealing their own prejudices in seeking to deny her any agency.
But the simple fact is that, even in a scenario where she was elected, Badenoch won't be able to do much on 'woke' issues because there isn't much to go on in the 2019 manifesto and she won't have sufficient support in the party because it has become clear that there are a lot of liberals within it. Similarly with any ideas about leaving the ECHR, they will get blocked.
It would be a difficult situation for Badenoch. The reality though is that next few years will be dominated by war and inflation. Given her inexperience of high office, is she really the best candidate to deal with all that?
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
No Tory poll leads for SEVEN months and 12 days...
Which is why Farage's intervention is possibly key. It pushes both the Brexit at any cost crowd together with MPs anxious about a revitalised Reform U.K. in 2024 towards KB.
I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
It is quite entertaining watching people trying to process the idea that Nigel Farage and Britain First support Kemi Badenoch. It adds to the sense that the left will have a complete breakdown if she actually got elected leader. They will have no option than to suggest that she is being used as the mouthpiece of racist white people, thus revealing their own prejudices in seeking to deny her any agency.
But the simple fact is that, even in a scenario where she was elected, Badenoch won't be able to do much on 'woke' issues because there isn't much to go on in the 2019 manifesto and she won't have sufficient support in the party because it has become clear that there are a lot of liberals within it. Similarly with any ideas about leaving the ECHR, they will get blocked.
It would be a difficult situation for Badenoch. The reality though is that next few years will be dominated by war and inflation. Given her inexperience of high office, is she really the best candidate to deal with all that?
The one who is going nowhere here is Penny. I don’t think that Badenock will overtake Truss tomorrow but she might well overtake Penny. Losing a vote at this stage is very poor. She could lose a lot more tomorrow. Her campaign has been woeful and the cancellation of the Sky debate has taken away her last chance of a decent performance. Vague, waffly, unreliable and possibly even untruthful. Just a disastrous campaign. If Kemi does overtake her Truss will be panicking. She has much more risk of losing to Kemi than Penny.
All very plausible, except that it is TT that is leaving the stage today.
I would expect Penny to pick up at least 10 of his votes, and maybe more like 15.
Not if people think she's a loser. I can see her votes being down again.
That’s an extraordinarily good film. One of the best I’ve ever seen.
This is why I say, don’t write off Penny.
When you watch that video, it’s laughable that the Tory Party are instead coalescing around a tax dodging billionaire, much less one that’s a PPE Goldmans alumni. Penny really norsed up that first debate but it’s still recoverable, just, if she manages to get enough TT transfers tomorrow.
Trouble is, the Tories are looking for another hero-magician who can somehow put everything right and secure yet another majority.
Whereas what they probably need is someone who can patch up the ship, start the process of rebuilding, and take a lot of flak for the state of the country while doing their best to provide some tea and sympathy; someone who can pull them together with one foot in the mindset of the activists and the other in the real world. Someone destined to lose, but not as badly as they might have done, and then hand over to someone from the upcoming generation.
Of the candidates, Mordaunt fits those requirements way better than the others.
I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
The voting system will solve the coalescing problem for them.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
No Tory poll leads for SEVEN months and 12 days...
My guess is that there will be one in early September, in the honeymoon of the new leader. Not sure it will last though.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
I cashed out of Kemi this morning. She's probably going win now!
I don't think she's probably going to win. I think she has about a 25% chance of edging past Truss and if she does an 80% chance of then leapfrogging Penny into the final by assimilation of Trusses old votes, where she stands a 65% chance of beating Rishi.
So I think she should be about 8/1 and not 20/1 and so her current odds are value.
I don't think she's anywhere near a 25% chance of leapfrogging Truss, much as I would like to see it. I think it's more like 10%.
I don't think it's that low. Truss only picked up a 1/3rd of the Braverman transfers she was expecting. She's barely advanced. It's very unlikely she gets more than 2-3 from TT, if that.
Defectors from her camp /Penny's camp and Kemi picking up a bit of support from TT to edge it is easily a 1/4 shot right now.
Still unlikely but possible.
The gap is 13. That's a pretty big gap - equivalent to almost half of Tom's total share.
And so far, the gaps haven't changed much, and there has been absolutely no reordering.
Of course, if @MrEd is correct and Liz's support is really soft, then maybe we could see a big drop off. But right now, the gap has only moved a smidgen.
My guess is that Kemi will close the gap... but only marginally, down to 8-9.
I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
The voting system will solve the coalescing problem for them.
Not necessarily.
I have always believed that one of the many interesting features of this race is first, how divided the factions actually are, and second, how much voting is influenced not “for” someone but “against”.
There are significant numbers of “Never Truss” and “Never Rishi” voters who will cross ideological boundaries to try to punish their foes.
This explains the various Tugen-gasms, Penny-gasms, and Kemi-gasms.
I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
Truss messed things up herself with her poor performances in the debates.
It is quite entertaining watching people trying to process the idea that Nigel Farage and Britain First support Kemi Badenoch. It adds to the sense that the left will have a complete breakdown if she actually got elected leader. They will have no option than to suggest that she is being used as the mouthpiece of racist white people, thus revealing their own prejudices in seeking to deny her any agency.
But the simple fact is that, even in a scenario where she was elected, Badenoch won't be able to do much on 'woke' issues because there isn't much to go on in the 2019 manifesto and she won't have sufficient support in the party because it has become clear that there are a lot of liberals within it. Similarly with any ideas about leaving the ECHR, they will get blocked.
It would be a difficult situation for Badenoch. The reality though is that next few years will be dominated by war and inflation. Given her inexperience of high office, is she really the best candidate to deal with all that?
I can't speak for anyone else but I'm dismayed that the fascists are getting airtime over this. They've played this well, and people on both left and right are stupidly amplifying them.
That’s an extraordinarily good film. One of the best I’ve ever seen.
This is why I say, don’t write off Penny.
When you watch that video, it’s laughable that the Tory Party are instead coalescing around a tax dodging billionaire, much less one that’s a PPE Goldmans alumni. Penny really norsed up that first debate but it’s still recoverable, just, if she manages to get enough TT transfers tomorrow.
Trouble is, the Tories are looking for another hero-magician who can somehow put everything right and secure yet another majority.
Whereas what they probably need is someone who can patch up the ship, start the process of rebuilding, and take a lot of flak for the state of the country while doing their best to provide some tea and sympathy; someone who can pull them together with one foot in the mindset of the activists and the other in the real world. Someone destined to lose, but not as badly as they might have done, and then hand over to someone from the upcoming generation.
Of the candidates, Mordaunt fits those requirements way better than the others.
Sunak probably can fulfill that role too. Truss is certain defeat. Badenoch a Hail Mary. Potentially a big majority. But potentially a big defeat. None of this makes SKS any good. Of course.
Badenoch is the right’s Corbyn. Interesting times lie ahead.
Corbyn was/is Patel and Braverman. Badenoch is a little more centrist IMO.
Patel and Braverman have a similar divisive and annoying political style to Corbyn..
As for Badenoch, she shares something with Corbyn in that her many of her policies are at completely at odds with the values of her party. In her case it is economic policies, in Corbyn's case it was foreign and social policy.
I feel like the right are giving up on Truss, but they haven’t managed to coalesce around Badenoch so they are currently like a deer in the headlights.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
Truss messed things up herself with her poor performances in the debates.
All part of the same shambles.
Truss was probably the wrong champion for the right in the first place.
UK Offshore Wind Costs 4 Times Less Than Gas-Fired Thermal Generation
When the smoke cleared and all the final bids were tallied, more than 7 gigawatts of new offshore wind energy will be added to the nation’s grid over the next 5 years at £44 per MWh. That is one quarter of what electricity from gas fired thermal generation today, according to Carbon Brief. In addition, 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity also won contracts at an average £55 per MWh and 0.9 GW of new onshore wind was bid in at £50 per MWh. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/17/uk-offshore-wind-costs-4-times-less-than-gas-fired-thermal-generation/
That's great news, as long as it is comparing like-with-like. How much capacity for offshore wind is still unexploited?
We currently have 10 GW of offshore capacity. People have been talking about taking that to 50-80 GW.
There is no hard limit. Even that wouldn’t use up all the nice shallow areas near the coast.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Her website says little, but it says this: “We need strong but limited government focused on doing some things well, not lots of things badly.” That means a smaller state. That’s a libertarian line.
Boring is his main problem, sure. But are you not a tiny bit concerned that, up against the Bojo clusterfuck, his voteshare is lower than Blair's LEAD?
But BoJo has been dumped. SKS is no young Tony. No one, least of all him, claims he is.
Dumped to be replaced by a gimp, a gimp, a gimp or a gimp. And all those gimps are less vulnerable to SKS's pitifully meagre skillset than Bojo was.
The number of dismissive comments against Keir Starmer on this site seems to increase in proportion to the size of the Labour poll lead.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how? She's already backed away from getting rid of TA's in schools and Net Zero.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Her website says little, but it says this: “We need strong but limited government focused on doing some things well, not lots of things badly.” That means a smaller state. That’s a libertarian line.
You're reading too much into it. Tony Blair could have said something very similar.
UK Offshore Wind Costs 4 Times Less Than Gas-Fired Thermal Generation
When the smoke cleared and all the final bids were tallied, more than 7 gigawatts of new offshore wind energy will be added to the nation’s grid over the next 5 years at £44 per MWh. That is one quarter of what electricity from gas fired thermal generation today, according to Carbon Brief. In addition, 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity also won contracts at an average £55 per MWh and 0.9 GW of new onshore wind was bid in at £50 per MWh. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/17/uk-offshore-wind-costs-4-times-less-than-gas-fired-thermal-generation/
When I am benign and gentle dictator of the world, people who use expressions like "4 times less" will be torn apart with horses.
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
Doing fewer things better is easy to say. What things? Better how?
Some Tory MPs may hesitate about Badenoch now they know she has the full-throated support of Nigel Farage and Britain First, surely?
Personally, I think Kemi Badenoch detests identity politics because she finds it patronising and divisive, has empathy with people and is (or would be) mainstream centre-right in her economics.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
Her economics are for a much smaller state. That’s not mainstream centre-right: that’s right wing.
Her position is to do fewer things and to do them better. That doesn't necessarily mean you end up with a smaller state. She's not a "cut x percent just for the sake of it" ideologue.
"do fewer things and do them better" is vacuous nonsense unless quantified. Which it has not been, and will not be, anytime soon by Badenoch.
Comments
3rd hottest.
Looks like Yorkshire or Lincolnshire tomorrow.
...and endorse the candidate he most wants to shag.
When the smoke cleared and all the final bids were tallied, more than 7 gigawatts of new offshore wind energy will be added to the nation’s grid over the next 5 years at £44 per MWh. That is one quarter of what electricity from gas fired thermal generation today, according to Carbon Brief. In addition, 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity also won contracts at an average £55 per MWh and 0.9 GW of new onshore wind was bid in at £50 per MWh.
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/07/17/uk-offshore-wind-costs-4-times-less-than-gas-fired-thermal-generation/
Heck it's possible to argue that the only place being levelled up is Manchester and only then on a shoestring.
Really felt like abroad. Even the smells.
The biggest story is not that the tories are a shower of shit, it's that they are a shower of shit AND SKS IS MAKING ZERO HEADWAY against them. Lab lead 43 points in 1995.
One of the best I’ve ever seen.
This is why I say, don’t write off Penny.
For a start, the Tories have ditched the guy who was behind.
But it is a good video - natural and heartfelt, without seeming phony.
Edit: Now out of her hands though - without a debate performance, how is she going to turn back the momentum? Or is she just that confident Tugendhat's batch will come her way?
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15902465.inside-scottish-defence-league---far-right-groups-racist-agenda-exposed/
"Why is Labour so far behind"
Labour levels.
"Why is Labour level"
Labour pulls 5 points ahead.
"Labour should be further ahead"
Labour pulls 15 points ahead.
"Why is Keir Starmer so shit"
Boring
None of which makes SKS any better. But it makes the Tories less worse. At least for now.
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1995/01/13/UK-poll-Labour-lead-over-Tories-grows/2901789973200/
SKS is no young Tony. No one, least of all him, claims he is.
Defectors from her camp /Penny's camp and Kemi picking up a bit of support from TT to edge it is easily a 1/4 shot right now.
Still unlikely but possible.
She's not a Braverman or Patel.
If I hazard a guess it's to send a signal to the ERG / Red Wall camps that a KB leadership would probably mean no Reform U.K. fighting the election in 2024 but a Sunak / Truss PM would.
SKS is not very impressive. Neither are any of these. We are agreed there.
Who will win from here is far from certain imho.
Well. That is literally you.
ERG have fucked up AGAIN.
Who would have thought the People-Eating-Leopards Lobbyists would keep being eaten by Leopards.
But the simple fact is that, even in a scenario where she was elected, Badenoch won't be able to do much on 'woke' issues because there isn't much to go on in the 2019 manifesto and she won't have sufficient support in the party because it has become clear that there are a lot of liberals within it. Similarly with any ideas about leaving the ECHR, they will get blocked.
It would be a difficult situation for Badenoch. The reality though is that next few years will be dominated by war and inflation. Given her inexperience of high office, is she really the best candidate to deal with all that?
Which is why Farage's intervention is possibly key. It pushes both the Brexit at any cost crowd together with MPs anxious about a revitalised Reform U.K. in 2024 towards KB.
Whereas what they probably need is someone who can patch up the ship, start the process of rebuilding, and take a lot of flak for the state of the country while doing their best to provide some tea and sympathy; someone who can pull them together with one foot in the mindset of the activists and the other in the real world. Someone destined to lose, but not as badly as they might have done, and then hand over to someone from the upcoming generation.
Of the candidates, Mordaunt fits those requirements way better than the others.
And so far, the gaps haven't changed much, and there has been absolutely no reordering.
Of course, if @MrEd is correct and Liz's support is really soft, then maybe we could see a big drop off. But right now, the gap has only moved a smidgen.
My guess is that Kemi will close the gap... but only marginally, down to 8-9.
I have always believed that one of the many interesting features of this race is first, how divided the factions actually are, and second, how much voting is influenced not “for” someone but “against”.
There are significant numbers of “Never Truss” and “Never Rishi” voters who will cross ideological boundaries to try to punish their foes.
This explains the various Tugen-gasms, Penny-gasms, and Kemi-gasms.
Truss is certain defeat.
Badenoch a Hail Mary. Potentially a big majority. But potentially a big defeat.
None of this makes SKS any good. Of course.
As for Badenoch, she shares something with Corbyn in that her many of her policies are at completely at odds with the values of her party. In her case it is economic policies, in Corbyn's case it was foreign and social policy.
Truss was probably the wrong champion for the right in the first place.
Of course, this is not over yet.
There is no hard limit. Even that wouldn’t use up all the nice shallow areas near the coast.
What things? Better how?
She's already backed away from getting rid of TA's in schools and Net Zero.
"do fewer things and do them better" is vacuous nonsense unless quantified. Which it has not been, and will not be, anytime soon by Badenoch.
Allegedly some of Truss support is willing to dump her if Badenoch looks like she could get into the top two .