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How the first debate moved the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • JameiJamei Posts: 50
    The best outcome from this, speaking as a Tory member, would IMO be Sunak to win and appoint Tugendhat as Foreign Secretary and Badenoch as Home Secretary, where they could sink or swim. This would hopefully give both wings of the party's MPs some hope, and stave off too much infighting. The less-than-mediocre Truss and Mordaunt should be consigned to the back benches.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited July 2022

    Mr. 13, true, although the weird shape of the red zone includes all four of England's biggest cities (London, Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds).

    Leicester, Nottingham, Coventry etc etc. Probably half the population of the country are in that red zone. Fortunately it looks to be a brief heatwave.

    A very poor time to be feverish with covid though, the next few days.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    edited July 2022
    As for Penny Mordaunt, see above. To use her analogy of the ship, she seems to be auditioning for the part of masthead, not of captain.

    Charles Moore

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/15/tories-have-weeks-find-leader-who-can-stop-inevitable-socialist/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Bluntly, now Truss has effectively self-immolated, I find it hard to see how Sunak's experience is not going to ultimately trump the rest of of them with either MPs or the members. Times are hard, and to parrot another Brown line, this isn't the time for a novice.

    That might not apply if there were somebody senior available who has clean hands on the economic mess we're in. But there isn't. Badenoch and Tugendhat have never been in Cabinet, and Mordaunt only served there briefly. Putting any of the three of them in charge would be taking a giant and frankly unjustified risk. Like Johnson,or Corbyn - and look how they turned out.

    Sunak isn't great, but he probably won't be catastrophic either. We have a fair idea as a country of what we would be getting. Certainty at the moment is pretty desirable and would in itself help with the economic situation by stabilising the pound.

    Equally, the fact I've never thought of him as anything other than the obvious choice in this field, for good or ill, may be colouring my views.
    Yes, I think Sunak would beat Truss in the final, and be a touch ahead against Badenoch, probably lose to Mordaunt.

    I don't quite get the hate for Sunak by the Tory right. He knows how bad the finances are, and that this isn't the time for tax cuts.
    He raised NI. That's it, really.

    Remember, there are two times when Tories believe you should cut taxes - when you can't afford it, and when you can.

    Actually his record on NI does put me off him somewhat, because a genuinely fair and much more economically sensible response would have been to raise income tax.

    But still better than the slash and burn of the others. I genuinely don't think they grasp the poor state of public finances or the powder keg of public service strain. And they clearly weren't listening when they were told last night.
    NI was the wrong, less honest way to raise taxes, but Rishi isn't alone in doing that (see governments of all colours since at least Thatcher.)
    And his acknowledgement that the stuff voters want needs to be paid for is a start. Badenochh's claim that there are
    meaningful savings to be made by cutting policing of hate speech and whatnot is just another version of the Magic Money Tree; the Enchanted Savings Shrub or something.
    Sunak will cut taxes before the next general election, whatever the state of the economy or public finances. But he’s politically smart enough to understand you at least need to claim your being prudent.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Foxy, Monday's actually looking slightly worse than Tuesday here (Leeds). Top temp is one degree cooler but there's a longer peak and overnight looks worse.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    IshmaelZ said:

    London on Monday seems to be the hot zone. 40C on BBC.

    Still up for grabs. Quite a few of the models topping out at 37 or 38. Still damn hot, but may not breach the record. In favour of record breaking is it only needs ones weather station to do it.
    Interesting and worrying times.
    Yes, I’m sure we’ll get through the next few days without the Armageddon some are forecasting. But the really concerning aspect of this is that it seems we’re now going to have to get used to temperatures in the high 30s or even more on a pretty much annual basis.
    The evidence of the recent red storm warning is probably that they feel they need to over-egg things in an attempt to get people to behave sensibly. A friend who is an A&E doctor treated a number of people who were blown over, including one guy blown off a ladder while attempting to fix the garage roof while the storm was still going on, and a colleague had a roof blown onto the car while taking the kids swimming. What part of "don't go out" is difficult to understand I don't know. Hospitals will be treating people who think that the same behaviour is sensible at 40 degrees as at 25.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    One reads that a major concern in the imminent Hadean horror is, yet again, the prospect of a wave of death in elderly care homes. Extraordinarily, a large number of care homes are *STILL* inflicting COVID lockdowns on their residents, which means that the poor old ducks are being imprisoned in their rooms, which typically do not have air conditioning. In short, thousands of trail old people are going to be locked in individual saunas for two days and left to sweat to death.

    The Government stands accused, with considerable justification, of pampering the elderly at the expense of the young, but that only really applies so long as people remain reasonably well and active. Care home inmates (and I use that word deliberately) can be, and often are, treated worse than animals. If and when I get to the point that infirmity could catch up with me, I think I'd rather be shot than end up in one of those places.

    My MiL spent her last 2 years in a care home, including long periods of lockdown for covid. Her home lost 6 residents to covid. Outbreaks cannot be trivialised in care homes.
    True. Then again, the rest of society has moved on from lockdowns.

    Covid is never going away. Must care home inmates, uniquely, be subjected to regular cyclical incarceration for the rest of time?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Mr. 13, true, although the weird shape of the red zone includes all four of England's biggest cities (London, Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds).

    Isn't the weird shape just due to the Peak District? Presumably at higher parts in the hills the temp will not quite hit the red zone.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Now that Mr W mentions it, Liz Truss does go into Ventriloquist's dummy mode. As if an alien has taken her over. But a TV performance, unless you're used to them, must be off-putting. I always wondered why BoJo's Frankie Howerd impression never told against him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    As for Penny Mordaunt, see above. To use her analogy of the ship, she seems to be auditioning for the part of masthead, not of captain.

    Charles Moore

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/15/tories-have-weeks-find-leader-who-can-stop-inevitable-socialist/

    Figurehead surely? A newspaper editor's typo? The masthead is (depending on the vessel) the grating at the crosstrees at the base of the uppermost mast, and being sent to the masthead to cool off for a few hours was a traditional punishment in sailing navy days, especially for the younger trainee crew such as midshipmen.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Borough, perhaps, but all of England, Wales, and much of Scotland are in the amber zone, so I hope nobody has the bright idea of going mountain climbing because it'll be 'cooler'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    One reads that a major concern in the imminent Hadean horror is, yet again, the prospect of a wave of death in elderly care homes. Extraordinarily, a large number of care homes are *STILL* inflicting COVID lockdowns on their residents, which means that the poor old ducks are being imprisoned in their rooms, which typically do not have air conditioning. In short, thousands of trail old people are going to be locked in individual saunas for two days and left to sweat to death.

    The Government stands accused, with considerable justification, of pampering the elderly at the expense of the young, but that only really applies so long as people remain reasonably well and active. Care home inmates (and I use that word deliberately) can be, and often are, treated worse than animals. If and when I get to the point that infirmity could catch up with me, I think I'd rather be shot than end up in one of those places.

    My MiL spent her last 2 years in a care home, including long periods of lockdown for covid. Her home lost 6 residents to covid. Outbreaks cannot be trivialised in care homes.
    True. Then again, the rest of society has moved on from lockdowns.

    Covid is never going away. Must care home inmates, uniquely, be subjected to regular cyclical incarceration for the rest of time?
    Cross infection is a real problem, so yes, I think that restrictive measures will be needed at some times of peak infection risk. We have similar issues in hospitals with restricted visiting.

    This isn't unique to covid, my MiL was locked down at Christmas 2019 because of a severe problem of norovirus at her home.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Mr. Borough, perhaps, but all of England, Wales, and much of Scotland are in the amber zone, so I hope nobody has the bright idea of going mountain climbing because it'll be 'cooler'.

    It’s the night-time temperatures that are the real killer. Down here in Sidmouth, Monday has a high if a perfectly fine 75 degrees, but the low is a horrific 70!!!

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,931
    Carnyx said:

    As for Penny Mordaunt, see above. To use her analogy of the ship, she seems to be auditioning for the part of masthead, not of captain.

    Charles Moore

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/15/tories-have-weeks-find-leader-who-can-stop-inevitable-socialist/

    Figurehead surely? A newspaper editor's typo? The masthead is (depending on the vessel) the grating at the crosstrees at the base of the uppermost mast, and being sent to the masthead to cool off for a few hours was a traditional punishment in sailing navy days, especially for the younger trainee crew such as midshipmen.
    Most likely. As you imply, masthead is also a newspaper term.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,171
    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 651
    All Blacks ... Ooppps
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Well I missed the debate because we went to see ABBA Voyage.

    Take aways - it is the brilliant show everyone says it is, any seat will do as the venue is small enough with a clear view from everywhere and it’s a longer walk from Stratford than you may be have been led to believe.

    Oh and we will go and see it again which is very rare for us.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    This weather thing must be serious. The forecast for Kirkwall next Mon/Tue/Wed includes 'sunny intervals' and 'moderate breeze' with temperatures possibly up to 20/21 C.

    Back to normal on Thursday. Max 14C. Next week: frost protection required in greenhouse.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    eek said:

    Well I missed the debate because we went to see ABBA Voyage.

    Take aways - it is the brilliant show everyone says it is, any seat will do as the venue is small enough with a clear view from everywhere and it’s a longer walk from Stratford than you may be have been led to believe.

    Oh and we will go and see it again which is very rare for us.

    Yes, it is a bit pricy but does sound rather good.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    So was I.

    They didn't see last night's debate then.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited July 2022
    Carnyx said:

    As for Penny Mordaunt, see above. To use her analogy of the ship, she seems to be auditioning for the part of masthead, not of captain.

    Charles Moore

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/15/tories-have-weeks-find-leader-who-can-stop-inevitable-socialist/

    Figurehead surely? A newspaper editor's typo? The masthead is (depending on the vessel) the grating at the crosstrees at the base of the uppermost mast, and being sent to the masthead to cool off for a few hours was a traditional punishment in sailing navy days, especially for the younger trainee crew such as midshipmen.
    Blockhead might be more appropriate.
    Especially for Charles Moore.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Bluntly, now Truss has effectively self-immolated, I find it hard to see how Sunak's experience is not going to ultimately trump the rest of of them with either MPs or the members. Times are hard, and to parrot another Brown line, this isn't the time for a novice.

    That might not apply if there were somebody senior available who has clean hands on the economic mess we're in. But there isn't. Badenoch and Tugendhat have never been in Cabinet, and Mordaunt only served there briefly. Putting any of the three of them in charge would be taking a giant and frankly unjustified risk. Like Johnson,or Corbyn - and look how they turned out.

    Sunak isn't great, but he probably won't be catastrophic either. We have a fair idea as a country of what we would be getting. Certainty at the moment is pretty desirable and would in itself help with the economic situation by stabilising the pound.

    Equally, the fact I've never thought of him as anything other than the obvious choice in this field, for good or ill, may be colouring my views.
    Yes, I think Sunak would beat Truss in the final, and be a touch ahead against Badenoch, probably lose to Mordaunt.

    I don't quite get the hate for Sunak by the Tory right. He knows how bad the finances are, and that this isn't the time for tax cuts.
    He raised NI. That's it, really.

    Remember, there are two times when Tories believe you should cut taxes - when you can't afford it, and when you can.

    Actually his record on NI does put me off him somewhat, because a genuinely fair and much more economically sensible response would have been to raise income tax.

    But still better than the slash and burn of the others. I genuinely don't think they grasp the poor state of public finances or the powder keg of public service strain. And they clearly weren't listening when they were told last night.
    NI was the wrong, less honest way to raise taxes, but Rishi isn't alone in doing that (see governments of all colours since at least Thatcher.)

    And his acknowledgement that the stuff voters want needs to be paid for is a start. Badenochh's claim that there are meaningful savings to be made by cutting policing of hate speech and whatnot is just another version of the Magic Money Tree; the Enchanted Savings Shrub or something.
    I suspect she would be selective about which brand of hate speech she stopped policing. One person's " hate speech" is another's " freedom of speech". Citizens are choosing whether to heat their homes in winter or feed their children and this bollocks is the best they can do. Sheesh!

    A slimy toad with a mixed economic record, though he may be, Sunak demonstrated yesterday he is the only credible candidate.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    Youngest’s 19th birthday today. It’s almost as if I was getting old.

    Don’t talk to me about getting old. It was my 33rd wedding anniversary yesterday - and this time next week our grandson will be 13!!! Time marches on, even though I will forever be 27 in my head.

    We have our 37th anniversary later this year but still no grandkids. I am well past the subtle hint point, I can tell you. Congratulations on your anniversary though.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Bluntly, now Truss has effectively self-immolated, I find it hard to see how Sunak's experience is not going to ultimately trump the rest of of them with either MPs or the members. Times are hard, and to parrot another Brown line, this isn't the time for a novice.

    That might not apply if there were somebody senior available who has clean hands on the economic mess we're in. But there isn't. Badenoch and Tugendhat have never been in Cabinet, and Mordaunt only served there briefly. Putting any of the three of them in charge would be taking a giant and frankly unjustified risk. Like Johnson,or Corbyn - and look how they turned out.

    Sunak isn't great, but he probably won't be catastrophic either. We have a fair idea as a country of what we would be getting. Certainty at the moment is pretty desirable and would in itself help with the economic situation by stabilising the pound.

    Equally, the fact I've never thought of him as anything other than the obvious choice in this field, for good or ill, may be colouring my views.
    Yes, I think Sunak would beat Truss in the final, and be a touch ahead against Badenoch, probably lose to Mordaunt.

    I don't quite get the hate for Sunak by the Tory right. He knows how bad the finances are, and that this isn't the time for tax cuts.
    He raised NI. That's it, really.

    Remember, there are two times when Tories believe you should cut taxes - when you can't afford it, and when you can.

    Actually his record on NI does put me off him somewhat, because a genuinely fair and much more economically sensible response would have been to raise income tax.

    But still better than the slash and burn of the others. I genuinely don't think they grasp the poor state of public finances or the powder keg of public service strain. And they clearly weren't listening when they were told last night.
    The "powder keg of public services" is a good phrase. Schools, Universities, NHS, Criminal Justice, Social Care, Councils, etc etc all look primed.

    This lot are flicking matches at them, apart from Sunak
    Our uni has just announced a £500 one off cost of living lump sum for most staff in August. Not sur about salary increases yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Except there's the health worry with Badenoch - we don't want a PM with a serious health issue, so we just have to hope that she gets her chipped tooth treated in time...
    Doesn't say much for her time in wealth management at Coutts that she hasn't got a few bob put aside to get her teeth fixed.

    Leon spotted this logical puzzler right off. Will be interesting to see if it makes the (more) mainstream media, beyond PB? AND if that has any effect?

    Absent that, think her use of her tooth to illustrate problems with NHS access, is quite Clintonian - Bill not Hillary. Winning technique he was able to deploy over and over, etc. and etc.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336
    edited July 2022
    Jamei said:

    The best outcome from this, speaking as a Tory member, would IMO be Sunak to win and appoint Tugendhat as Foreign Secretary and Badenoch as Home Secretary, where they could sink or swim. This would hopefully give both wings of the party's MPs some hope, and stave off too much infighting. The less-than-mediocre Truss and Mordaunt should be consigned to the back benches.

    Speaking as a non-Tory (if I may), I think the best hope for the Tories is choosing someone who is as distant as possible from the Clown. The toxicity is so bad. I watched QT on Thursday and to see poor Bim Afolimi being figuratively hung drawn and quartered by both Bryant and the audience was breathtaking. It was like seeing one of your childhood toys being savaged by the family dog. One attack line used regularly against Starmer was that he was in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and never spoke out...well I suspect the shoe will be on the other foot there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Penny Mordaunt has accused her leadership rivals of running a “black ops” campaign because they do not want to face her in the contest’s final round.

    The junior trade minister and former defence secretary has emerged this week as a frontrunner to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister, prompting frantic attempts from opponents, especially supporters of Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, to stall her momentum.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mordaunt-i-wont-join-this-battle-of-black-ops-3s20dstcw (£££)

    Oh Penny, you had to be the first to do a traditional whinge about being ganged up on? Disappointing.

    It's a contest, the others are allowed to seek ways to beat you.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    The latest Meeks piece - as usual, not astonishing, but written with style:

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-caucus-race-3361d84efdf2
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    Mr. Borough, perhaps, but all of England, Wales, and much of Scotland are in the amber zone, so I hope nobody has the bright idea of going mountain climbing because it'll be 'cooler'.

    It’s the night-time temperatures that are the real killer. Down here in Sidmouth, Monday has a high if a perfectly fine 75 degrees, but the low is a horrific 70!!!

    Get yourself a moth trap. You can't sleep, so you might as well be moth-ing!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    edited July 2022

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    So was I.

    They didn't see last night's debate then.
    I would have said that she was barely cabinet material under normal circumstances but when you look at the last cabinet she might be nearer the top of the table than you might expect. A long way short of being captain of our ship though. She reminded me very much of Nicola Murray and not in a good way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    First batch of British M270 MRLS arrives in Ukraine.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1547965132000530434

    That should make quite the difference, given the successes of the similar HIMARS in recent days.

    LOL that the Russians are trying (and failing, badly) to shoot down medium-range rockets with the huge (and expensive) S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Except there's the health worry with Badenoch - we don't want a PM with a serious health issue, so we just have to hope that she gets her chipped tooth treated in time...
    Doesn't say much for her time in wealth management at Coutts that she hasn't got a few bob put aside to get her teeth fixed.
    Yeah getting anything dental on the NHS is unthinkable unless you are on benefits. Politicians are meant to tell folksy anecdotes about the NHS but that was a blunder.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Dr. Foxy, Monday's actually looking slightly worse than Tuesday here (Leeds). Top temp is one degree cooler but there's a longer peak and overnight looks worse.

    Netweather just dropped a high of 42 for my village lol
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    That depends on whether that was a poor night for her, or, as noted above, Peak Mordaunt.
    Since n=1 we really can't yet know.
    If it is the latter then I really don't know what will happen.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Dr. Foxy, Monday's actually looking slightly worse than Tuesday here (Leeds). Top temp is one degree cooler but there's a longer peak and overnight looks worse.

    32 monday, 24 and thunderstorms Tuesday here.

    just in from riding a horse and left it too late. Bloody hot toward the end (and we are only getting 25 today).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Except there's the health worry with Badenoch - we don't want a PM with a serious health issue, so we just have to hope that she gets her chipped tooth treated in time...
    Doesn't say much for her time in wealth management at Coutts that she hasn't got a few bob put aside to get her teeth fixed.
    Yeah getting anything dental on the NHS is unthinkable unless you are on benefits. Politicians are meant to tell folksy anecdotes about the NHS but that was a blunder.
    Good to see a politician being honest about the limitations of the NHS, and not simply talking about it in religious platitudes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Bluntly, now Truss has effectively self-immolated, I find it hard to see how Sunak's experience is not going to ultimately trump the rest of of them with either MPs or the members. Times are hard, and to parrot another Brown line, this isn't the time for a novice.

    That might not apply if there were somebody senior available who has clean hands on the economic mess we're in. But there isn't. Badenoch and Tugendhat have never been in Cabinet, and Mordaunt only served there briefly. Putting any of the three of them in charge would be taking a giant and frankly unjustified risk. Like Johnson,or Corbyn - and look how they turned out.

    Sunak isn't great, but he probably won't be catastrophic either. We have a fair idea as a country of what we would be getting. Certainty at the moment is pretty desirable and would in itself help with the economic situation by stabilising the pound.

    Equally, the fact I've never thought of him as anything other than the obvious choice in this field, for good or ill, may be colouring my views.
    I don't quite get the hate for Sunak by the Tory right. He knows how bad the finances are, and that this isn't the time for tax cuts.
    You've provided the explanation right there. They want tax cuts because tax cuts are popular and always correct (one day no doubt they can for everything despite zero taxes). He is telling them no, or not right now.

    Add in the wielding of the knife and, well, it's not like Judas Iscariot was a popular choice to lead after the fall of the messiah.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853

    Mr. Borough, perhaps, but all of England, Wales, and much of Scotland are in the amber zone, so I hope nobody has the bright idea of going mountain climbing because it'll be 'cooler'.

    It’s the night-time temperatures that are the real killer. Down here in Sidmouth, Monday has a high if a perfectly fine 75 degrees, but the low is a horrific 70!!!

    Get yourself a moth trap. You can't sleep, so you might as well be moth-ing!
    I can imagine that Monday night will have mercury vapour lamps shining all over the countryside in an attempt to turn up some interesting records.

    It might be too dry though?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Jamei said:

    The best outcome from this, speaking as a Tory member, would IMO be Sunak to win and appoint Tugendhat as Foreign Secretary and Badenoch as Home Secretary, where they could sink or swim. This would hopefully give both wings of the party's MPs some hope, and stave off too much infighting. The less-than-mediocre Truss and Mordaunt should be consigned to the back benches.

    Speaking as a non-Tory (if I may), I think the best hope for the Tories is choosing someone who is as distant as possible from the Clown. The toxicity is so bad. I watched QT on Thursday and to see poor Bim Afolimi being figuratively hung drawn and quartered by both Bryant and the audience was breathtaking. It was like seeing one of your childhood toys being savaged by the family dog. One attack line used regularly against Starmer was that he was in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and never spoke out...well I suspect the shoe will be on the other foot there.
    Boris was really trashed last night in the debate and there was barely any attempt to stand up for him at all. Rishi maintained the government had done some good things to justify hanging around so long but everyone else was crystal clear that we need a fresh start and a reset on honesty. Biggest clap of the night was probably for the TiT with his simple "no".

    It's a curiosity of the race that normally having senior government experience would be a big plus but there was no doubt in this case it also comes with a big minus and even Rishi seemed to be acknowledging that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Bluntly, now Truss has effectively self-immolated, I find it hard to see how Sunak's experience is not going to ultimately trump the rest of of them with either MPs or the members. Times are hard, and to parrot another Brown line, this isn't the time for a novice.

    That might not apply if there were somebody senior available who has clean hands on the economic mess we're in. But there isn't. Badenoch and Tugendhat have never been in Cabinet, and Mordaunt only served there briefly. Putting any of the three of them in charge would be taking a giant and frankly unjustified risk. Like Johnson,or Corbyn - and look how they turned out.

    Sunak isn't great, but he probably won't be catastrophic either. We have a fair idea as a country of what we would be getting. Certainty at the moment is pretty desirable and would in itself help with the economic situation by stabilising the pound.

    Equally, the fact I've never thought of him as anything other than the obvious choice in this field, for good or ill, may be colouring my views.
    Yes, I think Sunak would beat Truss in the final, and be a touch ahead against Badenoch, probably lose to Mordaunt.

    I don't quite get the hate for Sunak by the Tory right. He knows how bad the finances are, and that this isn't the time for tax cuts.
    He raised NI. That's it, really.

    Remember, there are two times when Tories believe you should cut taxes - when you can't afford it, and when you can.

    Actually his record on NI does put me off him somewhat, because a genuinely fair and much more economically sensible response would have been to raise income tax.

    But still better than the slash and burn of the others. I genuinely don't think they grasp the poor state of public finances or the powder keg of public service strain. And they clearly weren't listening when they were told last night.
    NI was the wrong, less honest way to raise taxes, but Rishi isn't alone in doing that (see governments of all colours since at least Thatcher.)
    And his acknowledgement that the stuff voters want needs to be paid for is a start. Badenochh's claim that there are
    meaningful savings to be made by cutting policing of hate speech and whatnot is just another version of the Magic Money Tree; the Enchanted Savings Shrub or something.
    Sunak will cut taxes before the next general election, whatever the state of the economy or public finances. But he’s politically smart enough to understand you at least need to claim your being prudent.
    He's still playing the game as if he were the runaway favourite. Problem is he cannot disavow his own previous decisions like the others so is screwed.

    He probably needs a really big giveaway for the over 65s somehow to win back members, but one the others wont copy. Not likely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pulpstar, it's your own fault for moving to Mos Eisley.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Haven't yet seen any of the vid from Friday debate, but did catch a bit of Penny Mordaunt's campaign launch.

    My immediate impression, was that PM reminded me strongly of the character in "The IT Crowd" play, the woman who was hired as IT manager despite fact she knew nothing about computers.

    So much so that if PM4PM becomes a reality, then Pamela Anderson will have golden opportunity, same as Tina Fey re: Sarah Palin.

    Say this as someone rather impressed with Mordaunt's obvious potential as a candidate, if not (necessarily) as a prime minister. Seems to me that she REALLY needs a significantly better performance Sunday than Friday. According to PB she did improve a bit as last night's debate wore on, albeit not greatly.

    IF she whiffs it yet again, risks validating the notion that she'd be a grand figurehead, but is NOT ready from prime-time governating.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Anecdote, now rather irrelevant, but a nice story about someone I disagree with. I was chatting to a volunteer with The Listeners (https://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help/prisons/listener-scheme/) and we got onto politics - her views are I think similar to mine though she's not really much into it.

    She said Jeremy Hunt had agreed to come and spreak at one of their meetings. Two days before, they had an apologetic phone call from one of his team - he'd just been appointed Foreign Secretary, so his diary was having to be revised and he wouldn't be able to come. Oh well.

    My acquaintance was checking attendees in, and someone she didn't recognise said diffidently "I'm not sure if I'm on your list. My name's Hunt." And he went on to give a fluent 15-minute talk which showed he'd read up about the group and knew what they were about.

    They were astonished, impressed and rather touched that he'd honoured the commitment. And she has no time for people who say all politicians are selfish scum.

    One of the better moments in the debate last night was when Badenoch was talking about why she would trust the other candidates, and it gave a glimpse of that aspect of them as people.

    I'm not sure what exactly it is about the way politicians talk, what they say, or the questions they're asked, but they generally come across really badly, and it's part of what creates the distance between politicians and voters.

    I certainly don't think it helps that's they do rarely give direct answers. One of the worst bits of the debate was the answers to the question about public service cuts to pay for tax cuts, and all of the candidates talked about how much they baked public services, but wouldn't engage with the actual question. The public aren't idiots when it comes to questions of tax and spending, but the politicians do spend a lot of time treating us like idiots.
    Unfortunately we the public have helped train them to speak so - we're not idiots and can tell when they are patronising us, but we also do not reward for being direct on difficult issues.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    Jamei said:

    The best outcome from this, speaking as a Tory member, would IMO be Sunak to win and appoint Tugendhat as Foreign Secretary and Badenoch as Home Secretary, where they could sink or swim. This would hopefully give both wings of the party's MPs some hope, and stave off too much infighting. The less-than-mediocre Truss and Mordaunt should be consigned to the back benches.

    Speaking as a non-Tory (if I may), I think the best hope for the Tories is choosing someone who is as distant as possible from the Clown. The toxicity is so bad. I watched QT on Thursday and to see poor Bim Afolimi being figuratively hung drawn and quartered by both Bryant and the audience was breathtaking. It was like seeing one of your childhood toys being savaged by the family dog. One attack line used regularly against Starmer was that he was in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and never spoke out...well I suspect the shoe will be on the other foot there.
    Boris was really trashed last night in the debate and there was barely any attempt to stand up for him at all. Rishi maintained the government had done some good things to justify hanging around so long but everyone else was crystal clear that we need a fresh start and a reset on honesty. Biggest clap of the night was probably for the TiT with his simple "no".

    It's a curiosity of the race that normally having senior government experience would be a big plus but there was no doubt in this case it also comes with a big minus and even Rishi seemed to be acknowledging that.
    Bloody riveting bit of telly the "Is BJ honest?" question.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tugendhat-boris-johnson-honest-debate-b2124406.html

    I think everybody does OK (mordaunt slightly flaky) except Liz who fails disastrously.

    Perhaps we will remember and celebrate 15 july as TT's Ochi day.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    Anecdote, now rather irrelevant, but a nice story about someone I disagree with. I was chatting to a volunteer with The Listeners (https://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help/prisons/listener-scheme/) and we got onto politics - her views are I think similar to mine though she's not really much into it.

    She said Jeremy Hunt had agreed to come and spreak at one of their meetings. Two days before, they had an apologetic phone call from one of his team - he'd just been appointed Foreign Secretary, so his diary was having to be revised and he wouldn't be able to come. Oh well.

    My acquaintance was checking attendees in, and someone she didn't recognise said diffidently "I'm not sure if I'm on your list. My name's Hunt." And he went on to give a fluent 15-minute talk which showed he'd read up about the group and knew what they were about.

    They were astonished, impressed and rather touched that he'd honoured the commitment. And she has no time for people who say all politicians are selfish scum.

    One of the better moments in the debate last night was when Badenoch was talking about why she would trust the other candidates, and it gave a glimpse of that aspect of them as people.

    I'm not sure what exactly it is about the way politicians talk, what they say, or the questions they're asked, but they generally come across really badly, and it's part of what creates the distance between politicians and voters.

    I certainly don't think it helps that's they do rarely give direct answers. One of the worst bits of the debate was the answers to the question about public service cuts to pay for tax cuts, and all of the candidates talked about how much they baked public services, but wouldn't engage with the actual question. The public aren't idiots when it comes to questions of tax and spending, but the politicians do spend a lot of time treating us like idiots.
    The bit you miss here is the evidence, which is reasonably convincing, that there is no political advantage to be had in honesty about a wide range of questions because of the nature of the voters.

    Yes, we think they are all evasive, but no, a plurality generally don't vote for people who directly link expenditure with tax rises for ordinary people, and cuts with actual worse services for ordinary people.

    Compare the wild enthusiasm for Rishi when dishing out free money, and now.

  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 285

    Mr. Borough, perhaps, but all of England, Wales, and much of Scotland are in the amber zone, so I hope nobody has the bright idea of going mountain climbing because it'll be 'cooler'.

    It’s the night-time temperatures that are the real killer. Down here in Sidmouth, Monday has a high if a perfectly fine 75 degrees, but the low is a horrific 70!!!

    A Labour supporter in Sidmouth? Whatever next.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Bluntly, now Truss has effectively self-immolated, I find it hard to see how Sunak's experience is not going to ultimately trump the rest of of them with either MPs or the members. Times are hard, and to parrot another Brown line, this isn't the time for a novice.

    That might not apply if there were somebody senior available who has clean hands on the economic mess we're in. But there isn't. Badenoch and Tugendhat have never been in Cabinet, and Mordaunt only served there briefly. Putting any of the three of them in charge would be taking a giant and frankly unjustified risk. Like Johnson,or Corbyn - and look how they turned out.

    Sunak isn't great, but he probably won't be catastrophic either. We have a fair idea as a country of what we would be getting. Certainty at the moment is pretty desirable and would in itself help with the economic situation by stabilising the pound.

    Equally, the fact I've never thought of him as anything other than the obvious choice in this field, for good or ill, may be colouring my views.
    Yes, I think Sunak would beat Truss in the final, and be a touch ahead against Badenoch, probably lose to Mordaunt.

    I don't quite get the hate for Sunak by the Tory right. He knows how bad the finances are, and that this isn't the time for tax cuts.
    He raised NI. That's it, really.

    Remember, there are two times when Tories believe you should cut taxes - when you can't afford it, and when you can.

    Actually his record on NI does put me off him somewhat, because a genuinely fair and much more economically sensible response would have been to raise income tax.

    But still better than the slash and burn of the others. I genuinely don't think they grasp the poor state of public finances or the powder keg of public service strain. And they clearly weren't listening when they were told last night.
    The "powder keg of public services" is a good phrase. Schools, Universities, NHS, Criminal Justice, Social Care, Councils, etc etc all look primed.

    This lot are flicking matches at them, apart from Sunak
    Our uni has just announced a £500 one off cost of living lump sum for most staff in August. Not sur about salary increases yet.
    Modest one-off payments accompanied by crap wage settlements. A common and rather obvious tactic to make employers look like they're generous and care, whilst actually being almost as tight-fisted as usual.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Haven't yet seen any of the vid from Friday debate, but did catch a bit of Penny Mordaunt's campaign launch.

    My immediate impression, was that PM reminded me strongly of the character in "The IT Crowd" play, the woman who was hired as IT manager despite fact she knew nothing about computers.

    So much so that if PM4PM becomes a reality, then Pamela Anderson will have golden opportunity, same as Tina Fey re: Sarah Palin.

    Say this as someone rather impressed with Mordaunt's obvious potential as a candidate, if not (necessarily) as a prime minister. Seems to me that she REALLY needs a significantly better performance Sunday than Friday. According to PB she did improve a bit as last night's debate wore on, albeit not greatly.

    IF she whiffs it yet again, risks validating the notion that she'd be a grand figurehead, but is NOT ready from prime-time governating.

    All she needs is to persuade MPs she's a better choice than Truss. Polling saying she is more liked among Members/Public will do that whatever her performance.

    After all they knew Boris came with a high risk of causing severe problems but saw he was best placed to save their seats.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926


    The evidence of the recent red storm warning is probably that they feel they need to over-egg things in an attempt to get people to behave sensibly. A friend who is an A&E doctor treated a number of people who were blown over, including one guy blown off a ladder while attempting to fix the garage roof while the storm was still going on, and a colleague had a roof blown onto the car while taking the kids swimming. What part of "don't go out" is difficult to understand I don't know. Hospitals will be treating people who think that the same behaviour is sensible at 40 degrees as at 25.

    I think a lot of this is because in this country we're mostly pretty lucky that we have a very safe and stable natural environment. Partly that's because the modern developed world does a good job of rounding sharp edges off things, but also we don't have earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes, or other natural disasters, and mostly we don't have very cold or very hot extremes. So it's easy to forget that sometimes the world is a hazardous place simply to be and that the natural environment can kill you. You see the same thing with people going up Snowdon or Ben Nevis woefully underprepared, I think: they have a blanket mental model of the UK as "basically safe". The risks aren't salient to people in their day-to-day lives and so they get rounded down to zero, because we're terrible at dealing with very-low-probability events.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2022

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Ed Balls, David & Ed Milliband, Owen Smith, Lisa Nandy ...

    It is an over-represented demographic in the category of Failed Leadership Candidates, whatever party :)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Boris Johnson pretends that he's reincarnation of Winston Churchill, while doing a Benny Hill impersonation. Has the natural charisma, cunning and chutzpah to carry it off his panto-WSC for quite a while. And still retains considerable voltage as a live-wire performer.

    Liz Truss pretends that's she's reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher, while doing an impersonation of Maggie's waxwork in Madame Tussauds.

    Her constant efforts at mimicking her model's fashion choices (seen most memorably on her Mission to Moscow, and again at last night's debate) are highly effective at making her look very ridiculous. At least to me, but I'm guessing also to others, including many Tories who are huge Margaret Thatcher fans based on factors other than her classic wardrobe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    kle4 said:

    Haven't yet seen any of the vid from Friday debate, but did catch a bit of Penny Mordaunt's campaign launch.

    My immediate impression, was that PM reminded me strongly of the character in "The IT Crowd" play, the woman who was hired as IT manager despite fact she knew nothing about computers.

    So much so that if PM4PM becomes a reality, then Pamela Anderson will have golden opportunity, same as Tina Fey re: Sarah Palin.

    Say this as someone rather impressed with Mordaunt's obvious potential as a candidate, if not (necessarily) as a prime minister. Seems to me that she REALLY needs a significantly better performance Sunday than Friday. According to PB she did improve a bit as last night's debate wore on, albeit not greatly.

    IF she whiffs it yet again, risks validating the notion that she'd be a grand figurehead, but is NOT ready from prime-time governating.

    All she needs is to persuade MPs she's a better choice than Truss. Polling saying she is more liked among Members/Public will do that whatever her performance.

    After all they knew Boris came with a high risk of causing severe problems but saw he was best placed to save their seats.
    If I were her, I'd spend all weekend practicing the next debate like a Mo' Fo' and wargaming all possible Q&As, her style, camera eye contact and presence.

    Maybe it will work for government, but she needs to be more leader and less ship in the debates.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,171
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Youngest’s 19th birthday today. It’s almost as if I was getting old.

    Don’t talk to me about getting old. It was my 33rd wedding anniversary yesterday - and this time next week our grandson will be 13!!! Time marches on, even though I will forever be 27 in my head.

    My 33rd anniversary later this August. If you add 4 months then it makes a third of a century in December, which is surely worth marking.

    Why should anniversaries be just integers? 😀
    I had a very successful third of a century “birthday” some (many) years back. It conveniently moved the date to a time of year with much better weather.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    Mordaunt I think will be very good for those southern blue seats which are currently being targeted by the Lib Dems .

    Not so sure about the Red Wall seats but the Tories can still get a majority by keeping just a small percentage of those .

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    kle4 said:

    Haven't yet seen any of the vid from Friday debate, but did catch a bit of Penny Mordaunt's campaign launch.

    My immediate impression, was that PM reminded me strongly of the character in "The IT Crowd" play, the woman who was hired as IT manager despite fact she knew nothing about computers.

    So much so that if PM4PM becomes a reality, then Pamela Anderson will have golden opportunity, same as Tina Fey re: Sarah Palin.

    Say this as someone rather impressed with Mordaunt's obvious potential as a candidate, if not (necessarily) as a prime minister. Seems to me that she REALLY needs a significantly better performance Sunday than Friday. According to PB she did improve a bit as last night's debate wore on, albeit not greatly.

    IF she whiffs it yet again, risks validating the notion that she'd be a grand figurehead, but is NOT ready from prime-time governating.

    All she needs is to persuade MPs she's a better choice than Truss. Polling saying she is more liked among Members/Public will do that whatever her performance.

    After all they knew Boris came with a high risk of causing severe problems but saw he was best placed to save their seats.
    If I were her, I'd spend all weekend practicing the next debate like a Mo' Fo' and wargaming all possible Q&As, her style, camera eye contact and presence.

    Maybe it will work for government, but she needs to be more leader and less ship in the debates.
    Quite right. Developing some media presence is indeed vital for a candidate who’s strength was supposed to be her media presence.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    JACK_W said:

    All Blacks ... Ooppps

    In 2020 I backed France each way to win the 2023 RWC at 8/1. Now 11/4. Japan came close to beating France in a recent match in Japan. In the end France won 15-20. I've just backed Japan each way to win the RWC at 200/1.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    o/t an interesting story in the South China Morning Post where semi-private schools in Hong Kong are seeing collapsing rolls as a result of emigration: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/education/article/3185460/enrolment-slumps-hong-kongs-direct-subsidy-scheme

    Those with money are just getting out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    JonWC said:

    Mr. Borough, perhaps, but all of England, Wales, and much of Scotland are in the amber zone, so I hope nobody has the bright idea of going mountain climbing because it'll be 'cooler'.

    It’s the night-time temperatures that are the real killer. Down here in Sidmouth, Monday has a high if a perfectly fine 75 degrees, but the low is a horrific 70!!!

    A Labour supporter in Sidmouth? Whatever next.
    It's just as well Joff uses a pseudonym on here isn't it?

    Oh. Damn.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    algarkirk said:

    Anecdote, now rather irrelevant, but a nice story about someone I disagree with. I was chatting to a volunteer with The Listeners (https://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help/prisons/listener-scheme/) and we got onto politics - her views are I think similar to mine though she's not really much into it.

    She said Jeremy Hunt had agreed to come and spreak at one of their meetings. Two days before, they had an apologetic phone call from one of his team - he'd just been appointed Foreign Secretary, so his diary was having to be revised and he wouldn't be able to come. Oh well.

    My acquaintance was checking attendees in, and someone she didn't recognise said diffidently "I'm not sure if I'm on your list. My name's Hunt." And he went on to give a fluent 15-minute talk which showed he'd read up about the group and knew what they were about.

    They were astonished, impressed and rather touched that he'd honoured the commitment. And she has no time for people who say all politicians are selfish scum.

    One of the better moments in the debate last night was when Badenoch was talking about why she would trust the other candidates, and it gave a glimpse of that aspect of them as people.

    I'm not sure what exactly it is about the way politicians talk, what they say, or the questions they're asked, but they generally come across really badly, and it's part of what creates the distance between politicians and voters.

    I certainly don't think it helps that's they do rarely give direct answers. One of the worst bits of the debate was the answers to the question about public service cuts to pay for tax cuts, and all of the candidates talked about how much they baked public services, but wouldn't engage with the actual question. The public aren't idiots when it comes to questions of tax and spending, but the politicians do spend a lot of time treating us like idiots.
    The bit you miss here is the evidence, which is reasonably convincing, that there is no political advantage to be had in honesty about a wide range of questions because of the nature of the voters.

    Yes, we think they are all evasive, but no, a plurality generally don't vote for people who directly link expenditure with tax rises for ordinary people, and cuts with actual worse services for ordinary people.

    Compare the wild enthusiasm for Rishi when dishing out free money, and now.

    That is absolutely correct. We might ("the country" at large might) bemoan the lack of honesty displayed by the candidates but two sayings suggest themselves.

    "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the [American] public";

    and

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Youngest’s 19th birthday today. It’s almost as if I was getting old.

    Don’t talk to me about getting old. It was my 33rd wedding anniversary yesterday - and this time next week our grandson will be 13!!! Time marches on, even though I will forever be 27 in my head.

    My 33rd anniversary later this August. If you add 4 months then it makes a third of a century in December, which is surely worth marking.

    Why should anniversaries be just integers? 😀
    I had a very successful third of a century “birthday” some (many) years back. It conveniently moved the date to a time of year with much better weather.

    I quite like the idea of 10,000 day birthday parties: at ~27.4 years of age and ~54.8 years

    If you can do the maths to work out the Julian dates, even better. ;)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Haven't yet seen any of the vid from Friday debate, but did catch a bit of Penny Mordaunt's campaign launch.

    My immediate impression, was that PM reminded me strongly of the character in "The IT Crowd" play, the woman who was hired as IT manager despite fact she knew nothing about computers.

    So much so that if PM4PM becomes a reality, then Pamela Anderson will have golden opportunity, same as Tina Fey re: Sarah Palin.

    Say this as someone rather impressed with Mordaunt's obvious potential as a candidate, if not (necessarily) as a prime minister. Seems to me that she REALLY needs a significantly better performance Sunday than Friday. According to PB she did improve a bit as last night's debate wore on, albeit not greatly.

    IF she whiffs it yet again, risks validating the notion that she'd be a grand figurehead, but is NOT ready from prime-time governating.

    All she needs is to persuade MPs she's a better choice than Truss. Polling saying she is more liked among Members/Public will do that whatever her performance.

    After all they knew Boris came with a high risk of causing severe problems but saw he was best placed to save their seats.
    If I were her, I'd spend all weekend practicing the next debate like a Mo' Fo' and wargaming all possible Q&As, her style, camera eye contact and presence.

    Maybe it will work for government, but she needs to be more leader and less ship in the debates.
    Quite right. Developing some media presence is indeed vital for a candidate who’s strength was supposed to be her media presence.
    People were saying she was the best Commons performer of the group. Putting her glasses on to presumably read the statement at the end from an autocue felt lame.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,163
    Yes, lots of people from HK have been buying up property in my neck of the woods, and several former colleagues who moved over there for work have returned.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    kle4 said:

    Penny Mordaunt has accused her leadership rivals of running a “black ops” campaign because they do not want to face her in the contest’s final round.

    The junior trade minister and former defence secretary has emerged this week as a frontrunner to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister, prompting frantic attempts from opponents, especially supporters of Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, to stall her momentum.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mordaunt-i-wont-join-this-battle-of-black-ops-3s20dstcw (£££)

    Oh Penny, you had to be the first to do a traditional whinge about being ganged up on? Disappointing.

    It's a contest, the others are allowed to seek ways to beat you.
    True. But also true the "there all ganging up on me" as a political tactic is IIRC recorded on some Babylonian clay tablet somewhere, and while not fail-safe does have proven track record. Just ask 45!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    Haven't yet seen any of the vid from Friday debate, but did catch a bit of Penny Mordaunt's campaign launch.

    My immediate impression, was that PM reminded me strongly of the character in "The IT Crowd" play, the woman who was hired as IT manager despite fact she knew nothing about computers.

    So much so that if PM4PM becomes a reality, then Pamela Anderson will have golden opportunity, same as Tina Fey re: Sarah Palin.

    Say this as someone rather impressed with Mordaunt's obvious potential as a candidate, if not (necessarily) as a prime minister. Seems to me that she REALLY needs a significantly better performance Sunday than Friday. According to PB she did improve a bit as last night's debate wore on, albeit not greatly.

    IF she whiffs it yet again, risks validating the notion that she'd be a grand figurehead, but is NOT ready from prime-time governating.

    Charles Moore's assertion that she appears to be auditioning for the role of ship's masthead rather than Captain sums up her campaign thus far.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Anecdote, now rather irrelevant, but a nice story about someone I disagree with. I was chatting to a volunteer with The Listeners (https://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help/prisons/listener-scheme/) and we got onto politics - her views are I think similar to mine though she's not really much into it.

    She said Jeremy Hunt had agreed to come and spreak at one of their meetings. Two days before, they had an apologetic phone call from one of his team - he'd just been appointed Foreign Secretary, so his diary was having to be revised and he wouldn't be able to come. Oh well.

    My acquaintance was checking attendees in, and someone she didn't recognise said diffidently "I'm not sure if I'm on your list. My name's Hunt." And he went on to give a fluent 15-minute talk which showed he'd read up about the group and knew what they were about.

    They were astonished, impressed and rather touched that he'd honoured the commitment. And she has no time for people who say all politicians are selfish scum.

    One of the better moments in the debate last night was when Badenoch was talking about why she would trust the other candidates, and it gave a glimpse of that aspect of them as people.

    I'm not sure what exactly it is about the way politicians talk, what they say, or the questions they're asked, but they generally come across really badly, and it's part of what creates the distance between politicians and voters.

    I certainly don't think it helps that's they do rarely give direct answers. One of the worst bits of the debate was the answers to the question about public service cuts to pay for tax cuts, and all of the candidates talked about how much they baked public services, but wouldn't engage with the actual question. The public aren't idiots when it comes to questions of tax and spending, but the politicians do spend a lot of time treating us like idiots.
    The bit you miss here is the evidence, which is reasonably convincing, that there is no political advantage to be had in honesty about a wide range of questions because of the nature of the voters.

    Yes, we think they are all evasive, but no, a plurality generally don't vote for people who directly link expenditure with tax rises for ordinary people, and cuts with actual worse services for ordinary people.

    Compare the wild enthusiasm for Rishi when dishing out free money, and now.

    That is absolutely correct. We might ("the country" at large might) bemoan the lack of honesty displayed by the candidates but two sayings suggest themselves.

    "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the [American] public";

    and

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    Which is why UBI would be a political nightmare - the level of it would be the biggest single subject of debate, at any election for the politicians who decide the rate.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    Point re: Channel 4 and Tories has been made several times. But didn't many Tory MPs and members who are NOT regular CH4 viewers make an exception, for obvious reasons, and actually did tune in last night?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,272
    edited July 2022
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    Never work in formalwear hire was a hell of a life lesson to learn.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    In case we have any Joe Abercrombie fans, here's an out of date and very brief review of the final part of the Shattered Sea series (I always find book 3 tricky because it's essentially a case of buying it or shunning it for those who already like the characters/world because they've bought two books of the series).

    https://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2022/07/half-war-shattered-sea-book-3-by-joe.html
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Penny Mordaunt accused of being a 'Walter Mitty' character

    Penny Mordaunt has been accused of being unwilling to take overseas trips as an international trade minister and has only travelled three times in the past 10 months, sources told The Telegraph.

    One said former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost's concerns Ms Mordaunt "wasn't fully accountable or always visible" were a "very accurate reflection of day-to-day working" with her.

    Another said she was often absent when officials needed her for government work and another said Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the international trade secretary, "does not disagree" with Lord Frost.

    Transparency data shows Ms Mordaunt travelled overseas twice between September and December, and not at all between January and March.

    She has also declined to give evidence or take part in debates that are under her remit.

    Ms Mordaunt is said to rarely give a reason for her absence, with one insider telling The Telegraph she is a "Walter Mitty" character.

    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-live-updates-black-ops-against-mordaunt-demand-for-badenoch-to-give-way-candidates-quizzed-as-they-prep-for-first-tv-debate-12593360

    Infamy, infamy... It seems very clear it is that creepy no mark Frost briefing against Penny.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Tres said:

    Yes, lots of people from HK have been buying up property in my neck of the woods, and several former colleagues who moved over there for work have returned.

    They are late to the parade. Speaking from perspective of Seattle WA and especially Vancouver BC.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Anecdote, now rather irrelevant, but a nice story about someone I disagree with. I was chatting to a volunteer with The Listeners (https://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help/prisons/listener-scheme/) and we got onto politics - her views are I think similar to mine though she's not really much into it.

    She said Jeremy Hunt had agreed to come and spreak at one of their meetings. Two days before, they had an apologetic phone call from one of his team - he'd just been appointed Foreign Secretary, so his diary was having to be revised and he wouldn't be able to come. Oh well.

    My acquaintance was checking attendees in, and someone she didn't recognise said diffidently "I'm not sure if I'm on your list. My name's Hunt." And he went on to give a fluent 15-minute talk which showed he'd read up about the group and knew what they were about.

    They were astonished, impressed and rather touched that he'd honoured the commitment. And she has no time for people who say all politicians are selfish scum.

    One of the better moments in the debate last night was when Badenoch was talking about why she would trust the other candidates, and it gave a glimpse of that aspect of them as people.

    I'm not sure what exactly it is about the way politicians talk, what they say, or the questions they're asked, but they generally come across really badly, and it's part of what creates the distance between politicians and voters.

    I certainly don't think it helps that's they do rarely give direct answers. One of the worst bits of the debate was the answers to the question about public service cuts to pay for tax cuts, and all of the candidates talked about how much they baked public services, but wouldn't engage with the actual question. The public aren't idiots when it comes to questions of tax and spending, but the politicians do spend a lot of time treating us like idiots.
    The bit you miss here is the evidence, which is reasonably convincing, that there is no political advantage to be had in honesty about a wide range of questions because of the nature of the voters.

    Yes, we think they are all evasive, but no, a plurality generally don't vote for people who directly link expenditure with tax rises for ordinary people, and cuts with actual worse services for ordinary people.

    Compare the wild enthusiasm for Rishi when dishing out free money, and now.

    That is absolutely correct. We might ("the country" at large might) bemoan the lack of honesty displayed by the candidates but two sayings suggest themselves.

    "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the [American] public";

    and

    "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury."
    There are no permanent forms of government in the logical sense - we just can't bind the future. So that's correct in nay event.

    Democracy can only continue to exist in a fruitful form in a culture which possesses a moral and altruistic and communitarian frame.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
    You keep getting fired? Personally have found that highly educational!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    edited July 2022
    I didn't see the debate. It's a shame Penny didn't perform well - she was the only unknown quantity for me. I knew Sunak would be slick, I knew Tug end would impress and be the 'cleggasm' of the evening, where someone you don't know seems vaguely plausible, I knew Truss would be rubbish, and I knew Kemi would be punchy.

    After comments here, it seems to me likelier than ever that Kemi has been placed in this competiton for Sunak. I think that's interesting. I don't blame her for saying yes; it's a chance to improve her profile radically. It would still be quite good if she won!

    I hope Penny really gets her mojo back in future debates. I know she can do it. Sunak being slick is priced in for me - the problem is he's not good at actual policy. It's all very well coming over all iron Chancellor, but he just spent Covid hosing money at everything that moved.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Tres said:

    Yes, lots of people from HK have been buying up property in my neck of the woods, and several former colleagues who moved over there for work have returned.

    They are late to the parade. Speaking from perspective of Seattle WA and especially Vancouver BC.
    Vancouver was happening back in the mid-eighties when I lived there.
    The people with serious money had a bolt hole and a route to citizenship decades ago.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/16/londoners-urged-not-to-travel-on-monday-and-tuesday-because-of-high-temperatures

    "Londoners urged not to travel on Monday and Tuesday because of high temperatures"

    "Transport for London advises passengers to travel only for essential journeys, with strong chance of record high temperatures"

    Oh, ok.

    I'm going to London on Monday for a meeting.

    A meeting with Transport for London. At their HQ.

    FML.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
    You keep getting fired? Personally have found that highly educational!
    Did you miss the "temporary jobs" bit of the post?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Ireland have beaten New Zealand again in the 3rd deciding match of their Rugby Test series. Wow!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    Truss was bad but only in that usual Truss way. Having allowed for this she was, if anything, reasonably on-form. She can still win, I think. Mordaunt was incredibly bland, maybe on purpose so as to not jeopardize her strong but at the same time precarious position.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
This discussion has been closed.