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How the first debate moved the betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,548
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here, which in 1980 entitled her to a passport.

    That’s no longer the case, after a trip to London became a very popular idea in the ‘90s, among the rich and pregnant of the third world.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
    I didn't think that counted, in itself? It does or did till recently in the US and Ireland but I thought they were outliers.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,886

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    It's always those on the left that actually perpetrate the more egregious discrimination.

    They do it domestically also but replace the savages abroad who need saving with the poor at home.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    stjohn said:

    Ireland have beaten New Zealand again in the 3rd deciding match of their Rugby Test series. Wow!

    The Irish are a bloody good side.
    This is the poorest All Blacks side I can remember, however.
    Domestic rugby union in the Southern Hemisphere is struggling.
  • stjohn said:

    Ireland have beaten New Zealand again in the 3rd deciding match of their Rugby Test series. Wow!

    Yes, well done Ireland. Great result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,092

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    Point re: Channel 4 and Tories has been made several times. But didn't many Tory MPs and members who are NOT regular CH4 viewers make an exception, for obvious reasons, and actually did tune in last night?
    Yes that must surely have happened. Not your usual CH4 bunch last night.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,886
    I didn't see the debate.

    If Boris taught us one thing apart from don't elect a duplicitous, solipsistic twat, it is that voters like human and Boris did that very well.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here, which in 1980 entitled her to a passport.

    That’s no longer the case, after a trip to London became a very popular idea in the ‘90s, among the rich and pregnant of the third world.
    Ah tks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,548
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Your generation and mine did bar work as students - the following generation, not so much.

    There’s a lot of people in their twenties who did a gap yah building a school somewhere in the third world, but never did minimum-wage jobs in the UK.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
    You keep getting fired? Personally have found that highly educational!
    Did you miss the "temporary jobs" bit of the post?
    That's what I was keying in on!

    Actually assumed it was a prearranged series of temp jobs, though never heard of that kind of thing before, except by politicos as a campaign tactic.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,341
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    This passed me by -'handwritten signs saying “Men” and “Ladies” were taped to the doors of gender-neutral toilets at Kemi Badenoch’s Tory leadership campaign launch.'

    A tory party obsessed with willy-policing is going to crash and burn at the next election.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,799
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    What deficit with members? Yougov showed Rishi losing but Opinium had him winning iirc.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,504

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    True, see the criticism of Tulip Siddiq.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Everyone I knew at university in the late 2000s did minimum wage jobs, even the middle class kids. Try renting at university city prices without one. It probably messed up a couple of educations.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Your generation and mine did bar work as students - the following generation, not so much.

    There’s a lot of people in their twenties who did a gap yah building a school somewhere in the third world, but never did minimum-wage jobs in the UK.
    Well, I have to say I don't see that. I see plenty of people that I taught History A-level to and have gone on to top unis filling in their holidays with bar work and work in Morrisons and Homebase. Indeed, it's now the only place I see them, of course!

    Perhaps being at distance you're not getting the right impression?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242
    kle4 said:

    Anecdote, now rather irrelevant, but a nice story about someone I disagree with. I was chatting to a volunteer with The Listeners (https://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help/prisons/listener-scheme/) and we got onto politics - her views are I think similar to mine though she's not really much into it.

    She said Jeremy Hunt had agreed to come and spreak at one of their meetings. Two days before, they had an apologetic phone call from one of his team - he'd just been appointed Foreign Secretary, so his diary was having to be revised and he wouldn't be able to come. Oh well.

    My acquaintance was checking attendees in, and someone she didn't recognise said diffidently "I'm not sure if I'm on your list. My name's Hunt." And he went on to give a fluent 15-minute talk which showed he'd read up about the group and knew what they were about.

    They were astonished, impressed and rather touched that he'd honoured the commitment. And she has no time for people who say all politicians are selfish scum.

    One of the better moments in the debate last night was when Badenoch was talking about why she would trust the other candidates, and it gave a glimpse of that aspect of them as people.

    I'm not sure what exactly it is about the way politicians talk, what they say, or the questions they're asked, but they generally come across really badly, and it's part of what creates the distance between politicians and voters.

    I certainly don't think it helps that's they do rarely give direct answers. One of the worst bits of the debate was the answers to the question about public service cuts to pay for tax cuts, and all of the candidates talked about how much they baked public services, but wouldn't engage with the actual question. The public aren't idiots when it comes to questions of tax and spending, but the politicians do spend a lot of time treating us like idiots.
    Unfortunately we the public have helped train them to speak so - we're not idiots and can tell when they are patronising us, but we also do not reward for being direct on difficult issues.
    The last pol to try the appalling honesty approach said "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat" and he was turfed out at the next election.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,307
    algarkirk said:

    Anecdote, now rather irrelevant, but a nice story about someone I disagree with. I was chatting to a volunteer with The Listeners (https://www.samaritans.org/how-we-can-help/prisons/listener-scheme/) and we got onto politics - her views are I think similar to mine though she's not really much into it.

    She said Jeremy Hunt had agreed to come and spreak at one of their meetings. Two days before, they had an apologetic phone call from one of his team - he'd just been appointed Foreign Secretary, so his diary was having to be revised and he wouldn't be able to come. Oh well.

    My acquaintance was checking attendees in, and someone she didn't recognise said diffidently "I'm not sure if I'm on your list. My name's Hunt." And he went on to give a fluent 15-minute talk which showed he'd read up about the group and knew what they were about.

    They were astonished, impressed and rather touched that he'd honoured the commitment. And she has no time for people who say all politicians are selfish scum.

    One of the better moments in the debate last night was when Badenoch was talking about why she would trust the other candidates, and it gave a glimpse of that aspect of them as people.

    I'm not sure what exactly it is about the way politicians talk, what they say, or the questions they're asked, but they generally come across really badly, and it's part of what creates the distance between politicians and voters.

    I certainly don't think it helps that's they do rarely give direct answers. One of the worst bits of the debate was the answers to the question about public service cuts to pay for tax cuts, and all of the candidates talked about how much they baked public services, but wouldn't engage with the actual question. The public aren't idiots when it comes to questions of tax and spending, but the politicians do spend a lot of time treating us like idiots.
    The bit you miss here is the evidence, which is reasonably convincing, that there is no political advantage to be had in honesty about a wide range of questions because of the nature of the voters.

    Yes, we think they are all evasive, but no, a plurality generally don't vote for people who directly link expenditure with tax rises for ordinary people, and cuts with actual worse services for ordinary people.

    Compare the wild enthusiasm for Rishi when dishing out free money, and now.

    The explanation for that behaviour is conventionally that the public are dishonest, but you can explain it with a lack of trust. They don't trust that public services will improve if they pay more tax. This relates to another discussion from a few weeks ago about why consumers bought things on price, instead of on quality. They don't trust companies not to sell them the same crap at a higher price.

    This points to a big risk for Labour with relying on the failure of the Tories to win them the next election. It's not enough. Pessimistic voters with low trust are less likely to vote for a Labour government promising to improve things, because they won't believe that things will improve.

    Labour have to build trust with the voters and give them reasons to be optimistic.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
    In Wimbledon, according to wiki.

    But IIRC Obama's Hawaii birth certificate didn't cut much ice with some people.

    So perhaps some scope for Brit birtherism for fun & political profit?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,776
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    Point re: Channel 4 and Tories has been made several times. But didn't many Tory MPs and members who are NOT regular CH4 viewers make an exception, for obvious reasons, and actually did tune in last night?
    Yes that must surely have happened. Not your usual CH4 bunch last night.
    I see there are complaints from Tories (including at least one MP) about C4 debate leftwing bias according to news reports. I only saw snippets but as it was Tory v Tory debate I'm not sure how that works. References to debaters not being able to get a word in and the usual reference to 'woke'. Again I am trying to imagine how either is possible. Any Tories here feel that is true.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,886

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
    You keep getting fired? Personally have found that highly educational!
    Did you miss the "temporary jobs" bit of the post?
    That's what I was keying in on!

    Actually assumed it was a prearranged series of temp jobs, though never heard of that kind of thing before, except by politicos as a campaign tactic.
    It was a thing. Not sure if it still is. You signed on with an agency and they sent you to a series of jobs, 2-3 weeks at a time to fill a particular need.

    Could be anything.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    edited July 2022

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
    In Wimbledon, according to wiki.

    But IIRC Obama's Hawaii birth certificate didn't cut much ice with some people.

    So perhaps some scope for Brit birtherism for fun & political profit?
    Wouldn't have the same impact here. You don't have to be a 'natural born citizen' to be an MP and thus PM, only a British national at the time of election. And nobody disputes she is a British national now.

    I don't even think there's a bar on dual citizenship as there is in Oz, although Johnson did of course renounce his American passport.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
    In Wimbledon, according to wiki.

    But IIRC Obama's Hawaii birth certificate didn't cut much ice with some people.

    So perhaps some scope for Brit birtherism for fun & political profit?
    irony of course being that McCain was born in Panama!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,548
    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    Point re: Channel 4 and Tories has been made several times. But didn't many Tory MPs and members who are NOT regular CH4 viewers make an exception, for obvious reasons, and actually did tune in last night?
    Yes that must surely have happened. Not your usual CH4 bunch last night.
    I see there are complaints from Tories (including at least one MP) about C4 debate leftwing bias according to news reports. I only saw snippets but as it was Tory v Tory debate I'm not sure how that works. References to debaters not being able to get a word in and the usual reference to 'woke'. Again I am trying to imagine how either is possible. Any Tories here feel that is true.
    The complaints refer to the questioning and behaviour of the moderator, rather than the opinions of the candidates.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    OnboardG1 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Everyone I knew at university in the late 2000s did minimum wage jobs, even the middle class kids. Try renting at university city prices without one. It probably messed up a couple of educations.
    My university kid in their twenties certainly did minimum wage jobs. Hospitality and at the airport. Not just out of term either. Many of that cohort worked part-time jobs year round.
    Have you seen the cost of accommodation in cities?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Except there's the health worry with Badenoch - we don't want a PM with a serious health issue, so we just have to hope that she gets her chipped tooth treated in time...
    Doesn't say much for her time in wealth management at Coutts that she hasn't got a few bob put aside to get her teeth fixed.

    Leon spotted this logical puzzler right off. Will be interesting to see if it makes the (more) mainstream media, beyond PB? AND if that has any effect?

    Absent that, think her use of her tooth to illustrate problems with NHS access, is quite Clintonian - Bill not Hillary. Winning technique he was able to deploy over and over, etc. and etc.
    I don't think it is a "winning technique" to be asked about the crisis facing people waiting months for their cancer diagnosis or dying from a heart attack before the ambulance arrives, and to start wittering on about your own cracked tooth!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,591

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    No, I am saying that Badenoch flipping burgers is true, but about as representative as Sunaks job working as a curry waiter as Kutis in Southampton.

    It was Badenoch not me accusing Nigerian politicians of being corrupt.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,608

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
    Thanks, lots of interesting thoughts. Sunak puzzles me. As Boris’ chancellor he will be easy to campaign against. He is not a fresh start. Why anyone with a FPN is in this contest is beyond me.

    Meanwhile Truss, while occasionally appearing mad as a box of frogs is the more substantial thinker and the more likely of the two to ride out political unpopularity that is almost inevitable.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242
    Tres said:

    This passed me by -'handwritten signs saying “Men” and “Ladies” were taped to the doors of gender-neutral toilets at Kemi Badenoch’s Tory leadership campaign launch.'

    A tory party obsessed with willy-policing is going to crash and burn at the next election.

    Will they ever have separate facilities for "Men" and "Gentlemen"? Even the Lord's pavilion has dispensed with this time-honoured distinction.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
    You keep getting fired? Personally have found that highly educational!
    Did you miss the "temporary jobs" bit of the post?
    That's what I was keying in on!

    Actually assumed it was a prearranged series of temp jobs, though never heard of that kind of thing before, except by politicos as a campaign tactic.
    Temping jobs are like that though. Never in the same place for long. Can be phoned up on the day... Like Teaching Supply. One day basis normal there. If a supply teacher got a maternity cover or something it was like manna from heaven.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345

    Tres said:

    This passed me by -'handwritten signs saying “Men” and “Ladies” were taped to the doors of gender-neutral toilets at Kemi Badenoch’s Tory leadership campaign launch.'

    A tory party obsessed with willy-policing is going to crash and burn at the next election.

    Will they ever have separate facilities for "Men" and "Gentlemen"? Even the Lord's pavilion has dispensed with this time-honoured distinction.
    It's the Players that need the separate facilities.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,395

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
    In Wimbledon, according to wiki.

    But IIRC Obama's Hawaii birth certificate didn't cut much ice with some people.

    So perhaps some scope for Brit birtherism for fun & political profit?
    I don't think that would work with Kemi. British people, even right wing Tories, are very pragmatic. And not having a codified constitution would make it a lot easier to bend the rules/make an exception.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,886
    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    Point re: Channel 4 and Tories has been made several times. But didn't many Tory MPs and members who are NOT regular CH4 viewers make an exception, for obvious reasons, and actually did tune in last night?
    Yes that must surely have happened. Not your usual CH4 bunch last night.
    I see there are complaints from Tories (including at least one MP) about C4 debate leftwing bias according to news reports. I only saw snippets but as it was Tory v Tory debate I'm not sure how that works. References to debaters not being able to get a word in and the usual reference to 'woke'. Again I am trying to imagine how either is possible. Any Tories here feel that is true.
    The complaints refer to the questioning and behaviour of the moderator, rather than the opinions of the candidates.
    Poor mites.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Your generation and mine did bar work as students - the following generation, not so much.

    There’s a lot of people in their twenties who did a gap yah building a school somewhere in the third world, but never did minimum-wage jobs in the UK.
    The last reliable data I can find for this is 2014 when 59% worked, including 13% full time. That matches my memory of university in the 2000s and 2010s. I call bullshit on this assertion. Rich poshos at Oxford can do gap years without work. Lots of people work to fund gap years or working holidays. Lots work just to pay rent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,162
    HEAT-WATCH

    The chances of 40C have diminished somewhat. Cloud and breeze. Somewhere will, probably, still break the all time record however

    And a host of lesser records will go. From overnight minima to records further north - indeed the north could experience a Canadian heat dome moment with temps shattering records by 3-5C
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    Point re: Channel 4 and Tories has been made several times. But didn't many Tory MPs and members who are NOT regular CH4 viewers make an exception, for obvious reasons, and actually did tune in last night?
    Yes that must surely have happened. Not your usual CH4 bunch last night.
    I see there are complaints from Tories (including at least one MP) about C4 debate leftwing bias according to news reports. I only saw snippets but as it was Tory v Tory debate I'm not sure how that works. References to debaters not being able to get a word in and the usual reference to 'woke'. Again I am trying to imagine how either is possible. Any Tories here feel that is true.
    I thought Krishnan M was excellent. He was very proactive, sure, but then the candidates weren't going to bring up the bojo honesty thing, for example, of their own accord. I suppose Tory righties think that tilted things in favour of TT and PM? Serve them right
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,357
    edited July 2022

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
    I think your last sentence is important. However hard Rishi tries to be sincere about the cost of living crisis, everybody knows that it doesn't affect him personally, just politically. He'd barely notice if petrol and energy prices tripled overnight. Watching the debate last night, my other half just kept shouting at him "well, you're so ******* rich it wouldn't bother you". This may be grossly unfair on Rishi, and I'm sure all the other candidates aren't short of a bob or two, but I think it's a common perception.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,606
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
    You keep getting fired? Personally have found that highly educational!
    Did you miss the "temporary jobs" bit of the post?
    That's what I was keying in on!

    Actually assumed it was a prearranged series of temp jobs, though never heard of that kind of thing before, except by politicos as a campaign tactic.
    It was a thing. Not sure if it still is. You signed on with an agency and they sent you to a series of jobs, 2-3 weeks at a time to fill a particular need.

    Could be anything.
    Still a thing. I had a part-time job at Uni, many of my friends did agency work. It's particularly a thing in Edinburgh with our many festivals.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,799

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
    In Wimbledon, according to wiki.

    But IIRC Obama's Hawaii birth certificate didn't cut much ice with some people.

    So perhaps some scope for Brit birtherism for fun & political profit?
    No, because there is no requirement for British MPs or even Prime Ministers to have been born here. Boris was born in New York.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,019
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    This talk of Channel 4 viewers makes no sense to me. If you wanted to watch the debate, you watched it. I doubt many Tory voters thought, “Oh, I’d like to watch the debate, but it’s on Channel 4, so I just can’t.” Equally, just because someone might watch a lot of Channel 4, they’re not going to leave the debate on if they’re not interested in it.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    dixiedean said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Everyone I knew at university in the late 2000s did minimum wage jobs, even the middle class kids. Try renting at university city prices without one. It probably messed up a couple of educations.
    My university kid in their twenties certainly did minimum wage jobs. Hospitality and at the airport. Not just out of term either. Many of that cohort worked part-time jobs year round.
    Have you seen the cost of accommodation in cities?
    I paid it for ten years. Fortunately engineering students can get good internships.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
    You keep getting fired? Personally have found that highly educational!
    Did you miss the "temporary jobs" bit of the post?
    That's what I was keying in on!

    Actually assumed it was a prearranged series of temp jobs, though never heard of that kind of thing before, except by politicos as a campaign tactic.
    It was a thing. Not sure if it still is. You signed on with an agency and they sent you to a series of jobs, 2-3 weeks at a time to fill a particular need.

    Could be anything.
    Randomness was fun.
    I went from working at a major bank in the City of London to car park security guard in Dagenham overnight.
    Perhaps they sussed me early?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    This talk of Channel 4 viewers makes no sense to me. If you wanted to watch the debate, you watched it. I doubt many Tory voters thought, “Oh, I’d like to watch the debate, but it’s on Channel 4, so I just can’t.” Equally, just because someone might watch a lot of Channel 4, they’re not going to leave the debate on if they’re not interested in it.
    TBF, there are a great many things about the current Conservative party which make no sense.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,822
    Leon said:

    HEAT-WATCH

    The chances of 40C have diminished somewhat. Cloud and breeze. Somewhere will, probably, still break the all time record however

    And a host of lesser records will go. From overnight minima to records further north - indeed the north could experience a Canadian heat dome moment with temps shattering records by 3-5C

    No-one should treat forecasts 3-4 days in advance with certainty.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,302
    Nigelb said:

    At some point, the extremism of the Republican party has to start having a serious cost for them … doesn’t it ?

    GOP lawmaker: Womb has ‘no specific purpose’ to a woman’s ‘life or well-being’
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/15/abortion-women-womb-gop-montana-tschida/

    It's not just the extremism. It's the sheer batshit fruit loopery of it all. These people seem to have barely any passing contact with reality. They really should be kept away from all sharp objects.

    Another favourite: "Bodies are not inherently male or female."

    We live in an Age of Stupid.

    And, sadly, it does not appear to cost those who come out with such harmful and extremist nonsense.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Your generation and mine did bar work as students - the following generation, not so much.

    There’s a lot of people in their twenties who did a gap yah building a school somewhere in the third world, but never did minimum-wage jobs in the UK.
    Well, I have to say I don't see that. I see plenty of people that I taught History A-level to and have gone on to top unis filling in their holidays with bar work and work in Morrisons and Homebase. Indeed, it's now the only place I see them, of course!

    Perhaps being at distance you're not getting the right impression?
    In Seattle local bars, coffeehouses, restaurants, etc, etc, college students are and always have been a major part of the workforce.

    However, it's a different story with respect to high school students. In my misspent youth, working after school and weekends was ubiquitous. Today, at least in Seattle, very rare. Mostly I think because of the hassle of employing kids under 18 or least that's what I hear. But that's here in the Emerald City, and environs, may be somewhat different in the hinterlands and boondocks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    My "gap year" was not spent building a school in Thailand but in doing a series of temporary jobs 2-3 weeks at a time. Everything from (non-skilled) building work to house/office removals to office work, etc. It meant every two weeks walking into a completely new set of people and having to get on with them.

    Was the most amazing education.
    You keep getting fired? Personally have found that highly educational!
    Did you miss the "temporary jobs" bit of the post?
    That's what I was keying in on!

    Actually assumed it was a prearranged series of temp jobs, though never heard of that kind of thing before, except by politicos as a campaign tactic.
    It was a thing. Not sure if it still is. You signed on with an agency and they sent you to a series of jobs, 2-3 weeks at a time to fill a particular need.

    Could be anything.
    Randomness was fun.
    I went from working at a major bank in the City of London to car park security guard in Dagenham overnight.
    Perhaps they sussed me early?
    A banker who was honest enough to be a security guard in a car park? You must have been a rare bird.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    This talk of Channel 4 viewers makes no sense to me. If you wanted to watch the debate, you watched it. I doubt many Tory voters thought, “Oh, I’d like to watch the debate, but it’s on Channel 4, so I just can’t.” Equally, just because someone might watch a lot of Channel 4, they’re not going to leave the debate on if they’re not interested in it.
    Quite so. I missed the first ten minutes because it was such a faff telling my TV how to do Channel 4. And failed and had to watch on a tablet.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,606
    Anyone else annoyed that the BBC uses a different agency to the Met office? I think our national institutions should be aligned.

    Getting weird inconsistencies in their website, using met office warnings but meteogroup forecasts.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2022

    Tres said:

    This passed me by -'handwritten signs saying “Men” and “Ladies” were taped to the doors of gender-neutral toilets at Kemi Badenoch’s Tory leadership campaign launch.'

    A tory party obsessed with willy-policing is going to crash and burn at the next election.

    Will they ever have separate facilities for "Men" and "Gentlemen"? Even the Lord's pavilion has dispensed with this time-honoured distinction.
    Deleted. Point made better.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,591
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here, which in 1980 entitled her to a passport.

    That’s no longer the case, after a trip to London became a very popular idea in the ‘90s, among the rich and pregnant of the third world.
    I think that her parents were working here at the time.

    I thought it was Mrs Thatchers Nationality Act that stopped British born people from overseas parents claiming citizenship in the early Eighties.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,786
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    At some point, the extremism of the Republican party has to start having a serious cost for them … doesn’t it ?

    GOP lawmaker: Womb has ‘no specific purpose’ to a woman’s ‘life or well-being’
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/15/abortion-women-womb-gop-montana-tschida/

    It's not just the extremism. It's the sheer batshit fruit loopery of it all. These people seem to have barely any passing contact with reality. They really should be kept away from all sharp objects.

    Another favourite: "Bodies are not inherently male or female."

    We live in an Age of Stupid.

    And, sadly, it does not appear to cost those who come out with such harmful and extremist nonsense.
    What a peculiar comment - if it were true then gender reassignment surgery wouldn't even be on anyone's menu.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,608
    My son off to university next year is currently making pizzas in Sainsburys. His induction training included how to clear up vomit and faeces. He was then informed that a certain customer was known to relieve himself at the end of the bread aisle.

    It’s a good education.

    My first job was IT support for a corporate rollout of shiny new Windows 95.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,799

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
    I think your last sentence is important. However hard Rishi tries to be sincere about the cost of living crisis, everybody knows that it doesn't affect him personally, just politically. He'd barely notice if petrol and energy prices tripled overnight. Watching the debate last night, my other half just kept shouting at him "well, you're so ******* rich it wouldn't bother you". This may be grossly unfair on Rishi, and I'm sure all the other candidates aren't short of a bob or two, but I think it's a common perception.
    It is a common perception (or at least, one I've also heard more than once) that Rishi is loaded above and beyond the call of duty but whether it will change a single vote is less certain. It is priced in. It would be a mistake for Labour to run with it, especially after losing to poshos Boris and Cameron.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Your generation and mine did bar work as students - the following generation, not so much.

    There’s a lot of people in their twenties who did a gap yah building a school somewhere in the third world, but never did minimum-wage jobs in the UK.
    Well, I have to say I don't see that. I see plenty of people that I taught History A-level to and have gone on to top unis filling in their holidays with bar work and work in Morrisons and Homebase. Indeed, it's now the only place I see them, of course!

    Perhaps being at distance you're not getting the right impression?
    In Seattle local bars, coffeehouses, restaurants, etc, etc, college students are and always have been a major part of the workforce.

    However, it's a different story with respect to high school students. In my misspent youth, working after school and weekends was ubiquitous. Today, at least in Seattle, very rare. Mostly I think because of the hassle of employing kids under 18 or least that's what I hear. But that's here in the Emerald City, and environs, may be somewhat different in the hinterlands and boondocks.
    Again, part time work is common among the students I teach. Even the GCSE cohorts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,162

    Leon said:

    HEAT-WATCH

    The chances of 40C have diminished somewhat. Cloud and breeze. Somewhere will, probably, still break the all time record however

    And a host of lesser records will go. From overnight minima to records further north - indeed the north could experience a Canadian heat dome moment with temps shattering records by 3-5C

    No-one should treat forecasts 3-4 days in advance with certainty.
    No one does. But this is now 48 hours away. It’s going to be hot

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    HEAT-WATCH

    The chances of 40C have diminished somewhat. Cloud and breeze. Somewhere will, probably, still break the all time record however

    And a host of lesser records will go. From overnight minima to records further north - indeed the north could experience a Canadian heat dome moment with temps shattering records by 3-5C

    Do we perhaps spot the end of the ferret's tail?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,776
    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    Point re: Channel 4 and Tories has been made several times. But didn't many Tory MPs and members who are NOT regular CH4 viewers make an exception, for obvious reasons, and actually did tune in last night?
    Yes that must surely have happened. Not your usual CH4 bunch last night.
    I see there are complaints from Tories (including at least one MP) about C4 debate leftwing bias according to news reports. I only saw snippets but as it was Tory v Tory debate I'm not sure how that works. References to debaters not being able to get a word in and the usual reference to 'woke'. Again I am trying to imagine how either is possible. Any Tories here feel that is true.
    The complaints refer to the questioning and behaviour of the moderator, rather than the opinions of the candidates.
    Oh I assumed it wasn't the opinions of the candidates and I assume they wanted the moderator to, well moderate, and I assume they wanted proper questions. Did he dominate or something? Not good if the show becomes him rather than the candidates or is it just people who are paranoid and see left wing bias everywhere. How was he woke? Did he refer to them all in a gender neutral way or something?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,757
    OnboardG1 said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job when I left school was in a DIY shop. My wife still finds this incredibly funny.
    It’s been said that one of the biggest disadvantages of low-skilled EU immigration, was that it filled a lot of the retail and hospitality work traditionally done by students during the holidays.

    There’s a generation of young adults, educated at universities over the past decade, who have never done menial or minimum-wage work, and therefore never had to interact with the general public.
    I'm surprised you think those who go to uni never work in menial or minimum wage work. I worked in a bar when I was in Aber, for example. Not that it was a particularly difficult job as it was in Borth and except in high summer there was never anyone there!
    Your generation and mine did bar work as students - the following generation, not so much.

    There’s a lot of people in their twenties who did a gap yah building a school somewhere in the third world, but never did minimum-wage jobs in the UK.
    The last reliable data I can find for this is 2014 when 59% worked, including 13% full time. That matches my memory of university in the 2000s and 2010s. I call bullshit on this assertion. Rich poshos at Oxford can do gap years without work. Lots of people work to fund gap years or working holidays. Lots work just to pay rent.
    Yeah I had a gap year but spent most of it waiting tables for £1.80/hr and only 3 months doing voluntary work in India/Nepal. I also got a bit of sponsorship from various places including the Princes Trust which has left me well disposed towards HRH the Prince of Wales.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,202

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    The problem is that, whilst I'm sure Kemi had told the truth about her life story, she might not have told the whole truth...

    The story which KB has allowed to develop is a good one, moving here to escape a bad country as a child, pulling herself up by her bootstraps (state school, McDonald's), proper degree (computing! white heat!).

    The other bits of the story (daughter of globetrotting academic, second degree in law, worked in consultancy and financial services, associate director at Coutts and later at The Spectator)... they give a different impression. Not one that makes her ineligible, she's clearly very talented. And everyone prudent edits their life story to best effect. But it gives a different impression.

    At least Rishi has never made a secret of his squillionaire credentials.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
    In Wimbledon, according to wiki.

    But IIRC Obama's Hawaii birth certificate didn't cut much ice with some people.

    So perhaps some scope for Brit birtherism for fun & political profit?
    I don't think that would work with Kemi. British people, even right wing Tories, are very pragmatic. And not having a codified constitution would make it a lot easier to bend the rules/make an exception.
    But we know how this works now, the DM would bully the Met into investigating her as an illegal, Priti would face questions about Rwandaing her etc
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,357

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
    I think your last sentence is important. However hard Rishi tries to be sincere about the cost of living crisis, everybody knows that it doesn't affect him personally, just politically. He'd barely notice if petrol and energy prices tripled overnight. Watching the debate last night, my other half just kept shouting at him "well, you're so ******* rich it wouldn't bother you". This may be grossly unfair on Rishi, and I'm sure all the other candidates aren't short of a bob or two, but I think it's a common perception.
    It is a common perception (or at least, one I've also heard more than once) that Rishi is loaded above and beyond the call of duty but whether it will change a single vote is less certain. It is priced in. It would be a mistake for Labour to run with it, especially after losing to poshos Boris and Cameron.
    Yes, I agree with that - I don't think Labour should ever mention Rishi's extreme wealth. It shouldn't be an issue. But I still suspect that for some voters it's a negative, fairly or not.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Yes, the downgrades have begun, as is often the case as the event nears. It’s now forecast to be a mild 39c in London. Wrap up warm!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,162
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HEAT-WATCH

    The chances of 40C have diminished somewhat. Cloud and breeze. Somewhere will, probably, still break the all time record however

    And a host of lesser records will go. From overnight minima to records further north - indeed the north could experience a Canadian heat dome moment with temps shattering records by 3-5C

    Do we perhaps spot the end of the ferret's tail?

    My prediction two days ago was

    Beat 40C: 30%

    Beat the record: 50%

    I stand by that today. Good solid prediction. I’ve no idea what yours is because you never made one
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,799
    Jonathan said:

    My son off to university next year is currently making pizzas in Sainsburys. His induction training included how to clear up vomit and faeces. He was then informed that a certain customer was known to relieve himself at the end of the bread aisle.

    It’s a good education.

    My first job was IT support for a corporate rollout of shiny new Windows 95.

    My first job involved writing out pay packets for factory workers. This was in the days people were paid in cash, and The Sweeney (ask your gran) would show villains robbing the cash for payroll that was held in the safe overnight, or robbing security vans delivering cash to the factories.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,307
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    Truss was bad but only in that usual Truss way. Having allowed for this she was, if anything, reasonably on-form. She can still win, I think. Mordaunt was incredibly bland, maybe on purpose so as to not jeopardize her strong but at the same time precarious position.
    Truss was so bad that she made Sunak look good. That's really bad for everyone except Sunak.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,786
    Nigelb said:



    Carnyx said:

    As for Penny Mordaunt, see above. To use her analogy of the ship, she seems to be auditioning for the part of masthead, not of captain.

    Charles Moore

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/15/tories-have-weeks-find-leader-who-can-stop-inevitable-socialist/

    Figurehead surely? A newspaper editor's typo? The masthead is (depending on the vessel) the grating at the crosstrees at the base of the uppermost mast, and being sent to the masthead to cool off for a few hours was a traditional punishment in sailing navy days, especially for the younger trainee crew such as midshipmen.
    Blockhead might be more appropriate.
    Especially for Charles Moore.
    Well, another meaning (context-dependent as always with nautical terminology) could be the truck - a large lump of timber nailed to the end of the topmost mast and mainly just serving to stop the rain from soaking into the end grain and to provide a seat for seagulls to defecate upon.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Mizzenmast,_Sheet_3_of_3_-_Ship_BALCLUTHA,_2905_Hyde_Street_Pier,_San_Francisco,_San_Francisco_County,_CA_HAER_CAL,38-SANFRA,200-_(sheet_41_of_69).png
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,608

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
    I think your last sentence is important. However hard Rishi tries to be sincere about the cost of living crisis, everybody knows that it doesn't affect him personally, just politically. He'd barely notice if petrol and energy prices tripled overnight. Watching the debate last night, my other half just kept shouting at him "well, you're so ******* rich it wouldn't bother you". This may be grossly unfair on Rishi, and I'm sure all the other candidates aren't short of a bob or two, but I think it's a common perception.
    It is a common perception (or at least, one I've also heard more than once) that Rishi is loaded above and beyond the call of duty but whether it will change a single vote is less certain. It is priced in. It would be a mistake for Labour to run with it, especially after losing to poshos Boris and Cameron.
    Yes, I agree with that - I don't think Labour should ever mention Rishi's extreme wealth. It shouldn't be an issue. But I still suspect that for some voters it's a negative, fairly or not.
    You run with him causing the problem, directly quoting Tories who said he personally lost track of inflation. You also demonstrate he is a bit slippery, citing things like his FPN.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,302
    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    At some point, the extremism of the Republican party has to start having a serious cost for them … doesn’t it ?

    GOP lawmaker: Womb has ‘no specific purpose’ to a woman’s ‘life or well-being’
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/15/abortion-women-womb-gop-montana-tschida/

    It's not just the extremism. It's the sheer batshit fruit loopery of it all. These people seem to have barely any passing contact with reality. They really should be kept away from all sharp objects.

    Another favourite: "Bodies are not inherently male or female."

    We live in an Age of Stupid.

    And, sadly, it does not appear to cost those who come out with such harmful and extremist nonsense.
    What a peculiar comment - if it were true then gender reassignment surgery wouldn't even be on anyone's menu.
    Eh??? What has gender reassignment surgery got to do with it? In the right circumstances that may be the most sensible medical action to take.

    The stupidity and lack of political consequences relates to the Republicans, inter alia, and the nonsense they come out with about women which does not seem to harm them politically. There seems to be a lot of nonsense talked about a lot of subjects. Climate change is another one. Despite all the scientific evidence of it we still have politicians either denying it or saying that nothing should be done or not yet.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,162

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    The problem is that, whilst I'm sure Kemi had told the truth about her life story, she might not have told the whole truth...

    The story which KB has allowed to develop is a good one, moving here to escape a bad country as a child, pulling herself up by her bootstraps (state school, McDonald's), proper degree (computing! white heat!).

    The other bits of the story (daughter of globetrotting academic, second degree in law, worked in consultancy and financial services, associate director at Coutts and later at The Spectator)... they give a different impression. Not one that makes her ineligible, she's clearly very talented. And everyone prudent edits their life story to best effect. But it gives a different impression.

    At least Rishi has never made a secret of his squillionaire credentials.
    THE BROKEN TOOTH

    That was a low. She’ll get away with it because she’s a secondary candidate and a young black woman - so people feel kind and indulgent. She wouldn’t get away with fibs like that if she was leader/PM
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Priti would have done better than Truss last night. The Bozo faction have backed the wrong woman.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,302
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Tres said:

    This passed me by -'handwritten signs saying “Men” and “Ladies” were taped to the doors of gender-neutral toilets at Kemi Badenoch’s Tory leadership campaign launch.'

    A tory party obsessed with willy-policing is going to crash and burn at the next election.

    Will they ever have separate facilities for "Men" and "Gentlemen"? Even the Lord's pavilion has dispensed with this time-honoured distinction.
    Deleted. Point made better.
    The change in the loos was made some time ago and had nothing to do with Badenoch's campaign launch, according to someone who had been at that location a while back for another non-Tory-related event.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    Reflecting on the debate last night - is there any realistic chance Truss makes it through to final two and wins?

    Surely not?!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,591

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
    I think your last sentence is important. However hard Rishi tries to be sincere about the cost of living crisis, everybody knows that it doesn't affect him personally, just politically. He'd barely notice if petrol and energy prices tripled overnight. Watching the debate last night, my other half just kept shouting at him "well, you're so ******* rich it wouldn't bother you". This may be grossly unfair on Rishi, and I'm sure all the other candidates aren't short of a bob or two, but I think it's a common perception.
    It is a common perception (or at least, one I've also heard more than once) that Rishi is loaded above and beyond the call of duty but whether it will change a single vote is less certain. It is
    priced in. It would be a mistake for Labour to run with it, especially after losing to poshos Boris and Cameron.
    Yes, I agree with that - I don't think Labour should ever mention Rishi's extreme wealth. It shouldn't be an issue. But I still suspect that for some voters it's a negative, fairly or not.
    Yes, it is well known enough to not need emphasising in a campaign. The tax-affairs of his family in recent times are perhaps more pertinent.

    Indeed, it does look as if Starmer was ahead rather than behind the curve on this at PMQs. He perhaps realised that Sunak is the only serious candidate that represents a threat.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
    I think your last sentence is important. However hard Rishi tries to be sincere about the cost of living crisis, everybody knows that it doesn't affect him personally, just politically. He'd barely notice if petrol and energy prices tripled overnight. Watching the debate last night, my other half just kept shouting at him "well, you're so ******* rich it wouldn't bother you". This may be grossly unfair on Rishi, and I'm sure all the other candidates aren't short of a bob or two, but I think it's a common perception.
    It is a common perception (or at least, one I've also heard more than once) that Rishi is loaded above and beyond the call of duty but whether it will change a single vote is less certain. It is priced in. It would be a mistake for Labour to run with it, especially after losing to poshos Boris and Cameron.
    Yeah, grossly patronising take: people expect People On Telly to be rich as creases and they usual are cos they are Simon Cowell or footballers or whatever. NB that if you Google anyone living the autosuggest is always "net worth". There may even be a If you're so smart how come you ain't rich thing going on, favouring uber rich politicos
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,786
    edited July 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    At some point, the extremism of the Republican party has to start having a serious cost for them … doesn’t it ?

    GOP lawmaker: Womb has ‘no specific purpose’ to a woman’s ‘life or well-being’
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/15/abortion-women-womb-gop-montana-tschida/

    It's not just the extremism. It's the sheer batshit fruit loopery of it all. These people seem to have barely any passing contact with reality. They really should be kept away from all sharp objects.

    Another favourite: "Bodies are not inherently male or female."

    We live in an Age of Stupid.

    And, sadly, it does not appear to cost those who come out with such harmful and extremist nonsense.
    What a peculiar comment - if it were true then gender reassignment surgery wouldn't even be on anyone's menu.
    Eh??? What has gender reassignment surgery got to do with it? In the right circumstances that may be the most sensible medical action to take.

    The stupidity and lack of political consequences relates to the Republicans, inter alia, and the nonsense they come out with about women which does not seem to harm them politically. There seems to be a lot of nonsense talked about a lot of subjects. Climate change is another one. Despite all the scientific evidence of it we still have politicians either denying it or saying that nothing should be done or not yet.

    Sorry. Just thinking that if nobody was worried about bodies being male or female then nobody would need surgery. It's the sort of statement it's impossible to make sense of, as this shows!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,799

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Anecdote alert. The people I was with last night really should be Tories, but both flirt with the LibDems, solidly so under Boris.

    They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.

    I haven't seen anything to change my Mordaunt position.

    She was ok last night.
    At the least she was not so bad that her chances are majorly damaged.

    Kemi is too far back to likely eclipse her amongst MPs, and her biggest hurdle in Truss had a much worse time. So was it so bad that Sunak will beat her amongst Members?
    I've had a bit of a rethink about Truss this morning.

    Yes, she was shocking last night. But people knew she was a crap speaker already and is a bit spectrum. She's one of the longest cabinet serving ministers, even more so than Rishi - having done environment minister, Lord Chancellor, treasury minister, trade minister and Foreign Secretary - and she does get things done. She's also flying the flag for small-state low-tax conservatism. And she had a better Covid debt answer than Rishi.

    So, I think she stays in and Kemi still fails (who was v. good last night, but didn't knock it out the path - and had few answers on the money).

    However, Truss did badly enough not to knock Rishi off his perch, so I now expect Penny v. Rishi that she'll win 58:42 amongst the members, or similar.
    In a Sunak-Truss finale, who would you vote for? Curious.
    Probably Sunak
    Thanks Casino. It’s a interesting answer to a difficult question.
    It is, because there is a case for Truss: she would reverse the NI increases, all green levies, and the corporation tax rises, and provide some family income tax relief.

    The gamble is that this would spur growth and address the cost-of-living crisis such that people felt the effects by the next election, and got used to/forgot about her poor personal style. She'd be respected for the results, even if disliked personally, and could then make it competitive.

    By contrast, Rishi is v. smooth but just promising more of the same (high spend/high tax) with some unspecified token jam at some point in the future. It sounds too much like austerity coming from a privileged man who's insulated from it and it could easily be an election loser.
    I think your last sentence is important. However hard Rishi tries to be sincere about the cost of living crisis, everybody knows that it doesn't affect him personally, just politically. He'd barely notice if petrol and energy prices tripled overnight. Watching the debate last night, my other half just kept shouting at him "well, you're so ******* rich it wouldn't bother you". This may be grossly unfair on Rishi, and I'm sure all the other candidates aren't short of a bob or two, but I think it's a common perception.
    It is a common perception (or at least, one I've also heard more than once) that Rishi is loaded above and beyond the call of duty but whether it will change a single vote is less certain. It is priced in. It would be a mistake for Labour to run with it, especially after losing to poshos Boris and Cameron.
    Yes, I agree with that - I don't think Labour should ever mention Rishi's extreme wealth. It shouldn't be an issue. But I still suspect that for some voters it's a negative, fairly or not.
    I'm not saying Rishi's wealth should not be an issue, I'm saying Labour should not make the mistake of thinking it is an issue. People who care about squillionaire poshos running the country don't vote Conservative anyway, and yet they still won elections under the millionaire Mrs Thatcher, the millionaire David Cameron and the millionaire Boris Johnson, and the last two had been to Eton to boot.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Both backgrounds sound in the same kind of parish as you. Have none of the little foxes ever had that kind of a summer job?
    My first job was pumping petrol, my second flipping burgers at the Wimpy. Mrs Foxy started as a chambermaid at a similar age, albeit in a rather posh hotel. Both Fox cubs have done similar work. I think it is good for teenagers to learn the value of money by earning for themselves. It is also a useful life lesson to escape that sort of work if you can!

    I suspect a large part of the reason that Kemi (not yet Badenoch) came to England aged 16 from her privileged, well connected private school in Lagos to do her A levels was so she would qualify for domestic university fees (zero at the time she arrived, but £1,000 by the time she started) rather than the much more expensive overseas fees.
    It is not 100% clear to me why she had the right to swan over here at 16 because she felt like a change of scene. We might get our very own birther movement if she progresses from here.
    She was born here was she not?
    In Wimbledon, according to wiki.

    But IIRC Obama's Hawaii birth certificate didn't cut much ice with some people.

    So perhaps some scope for Brit birtherism for fun & political profit?
    No, because there is no requirement for British MPs or even Prime Ministers to have been born here. Boris was born in New York.
    Tres said:

    This passed me by -'handwritten signs saying “Men” and “Ladies” were taped to the doors of gender-neutral toilets at Kemi Badenoch’s Tory leadership campaign launch.'

    A tory party obsessed with willy-policing is going to crash and burn at the next election.

    As the proximate cause of Boris Johnson's defenestration demonstrates, such gender segregation is NOT exactly a fail-safe measure, when two or more Tories are gathered together?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,734

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    The problem is that, whilst I'm sure Kemi had told the truth about her life story, she might not have told the whole truth...

    The story which KB has allowed to develop is a good one, moving here to escape a bad country as a child, pulling herself up by her bootstraps (state school, McDonald's), proper degree (computing! white heat!).

    The other bits of the story (daughter of globetrotting academic, second degree in law, worked in consultancy and financial services, associate director at Coutts and later at The Spectator)... they give a different impression. Not one that makes her ineligible, she's clearly very talented. And everyone prudent edits their life story to best effect. But it gives a different impression.

    At least Rishi has never made a secret of his squillionaire credentials.
    Most people have had a variety of life experiences and can spin it one way or another. I could tell you two different, completely true but partial, stories about my life that would make me sound like two entirely different people.
    Yup, I think with Kemi, the fact that she has multiple threads to her life is a huge positive. Loads of our politicians simply go directly from Oxford or Cambridge into a think tank then into the party and then a SpAd, eventually becoming an MP when enough credit has been built up for a run at a safe seat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,162
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    The problem is that, whilst I'm sure Kemi had told the truth about her life story, she might not have told the whole truth...

    The story which KB has allowed to develop is a good one, moving here to escape a bad country as a child, pulling herself up by her bootstraps (state school, McDonald's), proper degree (computing! white heat!).

    The other bits of the story (daughter of globetrotting academic, second degree in law, worked in consultancy and financial services, associate director at Coutts and later at The Spectator)... they give a different impression. Not one that makes her ineligible, she's clearly very talented. And everyone prudent edits their life story to best effect. But it gives a different impression.

    At least Rishi has never made a secret of his squillionaire credentials.
    Most people have had a variety of life experiences and can spin it one way or another. I could tell you two different, completely true but partial, stories about my life that would make me sound like two entirely different people.
    Yup, I think with Kemi, the fact that she has multiple threads to her life is a huge positive. Loads of our politicians simply go directly from Oxford or Cambridge into a think tank then into the party and then a SpAd, eventually becoming an MP when enough credit has been built up for a run at a safe seat.
    Yes

    But she is too young and callow tho. A few years in a tough job - Home Sec? - would season her nicely
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,776
    edited July 2022

    Jonathan said:

    My son off to university next year is currently making pizzas in Sainsburys. His induction training included how to clear up vomit and faeces. He was then informed that a certain customer was known to relieve himself at the end of the bread aisle.

    It’s a good education.

    My first job was IT support for a corporate rollout of shiny new Windows 95.

    My first job involved writing out pay packets for factory workers. This was in the days people were paid in cash, and The Sweeney (ask your gran) would show villains robbing the cash for payroll that was held in the safe overnight, or robbing security vans delivering cash to the factories.
    How times change. The villains now pretend to be Microsoft support. In my day they were proper villains knocking off banks, payroll deliveries or high jacking cigarette or whiskey lorries. As with everything else the standards are just not the same.

    Oh and not so much of the 'ask your gran'.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 309
    Tres said:

    This passed me by -'handwritten signs saying “Men” and “Ladies” were taped to the doors of gender-neutral toilets at Kemi Badenoch’s Tory leadership campaign launch.'

    A tory party obsessed with willy-policing is going to crash and burn at the next election.

    For what it's worth, this is fake news - I know because I was at the same building a few weeks ago and the signs were up then.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,678
    Didn't see last night's debate, but am I right in thinking that the PB consensus on it is as follows?

    Rishi: Is, and always was really, the man.
    Liz: Just scroll past.
    Penny: Never liked her much anyway.
    Kemi: Ditto.


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,307
    Eabhal said:

    Anyone else annoyed that the BBC uses a different agency to the Met office? I think our national institutions should be aligned.

    Getting weird inconsistencies in their website, using met office warnings but meteogroup forecasts.

    Just go to the Met Office website, app and forecasts on YouTube direct. Then it really doesn't matter what forecasts the BBC chooses to pay for.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Except there's the health worry with Badenoch - we don't want a PM with a serious health issue, so we just have to hope that she gets her chipped tooth treated in time...
    Doesn't say much for her time in wealth management at Coutts that she hasn't got a few bob put aside to get her teeth fixed.

    Leon spotted this logical puzzler right off. Will be interesting to see if it makes the (more) mainstream media, beyond PB? AND if that has any effect?

    Absent that, think her use of her tooth to illustrate problems with NHS access, is quite Clintonian - Bill not Hillary. Winning technique he was able to deploy over and over, etc. and etc.
    I don't think it is a "winning technique" to be asked about the crisis facing people waiting months for their cancer diagnosis or dying from a heart attack before the ambulance arrives, and to start wittering on about your own cracked tooth!
    Bill Clinton mad very effective use of small anecdotes like that. If you don't believe me, check out some of his State of the Union speeches.

    Point is not that you are downplaying serious issues, on contrary putting them in personal, even mundane terms, that a pre-school could grasp and understand.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,302
    I did not watch the debate. Did any of them talk about the cost of living and, if so, did they have any actual proposals, rather than simple platitudes?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HEAT-WATCH

    The chances of 40C have diminished somewhat. Cloud and breeze. Somewhere will, probably, still break the all time record however

    And a host of lesser records will go. From overnight minima to records further north - indeed the north could experience a Canadian heat dome moment with temps shattering records by 3-5C

    Do we perhaps spot the end of the ferret's tail?

    My prediction two days ago was

    Beat 40C: 30%

    Beat the record: 50%

    I stand by that today. Good solid prediction. I’ve no idea what yours is because you never made one
    That's not a prediction at all.

    I am sure most PB'ers know what your game is, so I don't need to spell it out.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,786

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    I've topped up on Truss.

    I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.

    I have had more of a nibble on Badenoch. I can see the right wingers shifting to her from Truss and her making third in the next ballot, then sqeezing past Mordaunt to get into the final two.

    Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
    Except there's the health worry with Badenoch - we don't want a PM with a serious health issue, so we just have to hope that she gets her chipped tooth treated in time...
    Doesn't say much for her time in wealth management at Coutts that she hasn't got a few bob put aside to get her teeth fixed.

    Leon spotted this logical puzzler right off. Will be interesting to see if it makes the (more) mainstream media, beyond PB? AND if that has any effect?

    Absent that, think her use of her tooth to illustrate problems with NHS access, is quite Clintonian - Bill not Hillary. Winning technique he was able to deploy over and over, etc. and etc.
    I don't think it is a "winning technique" to be asked about the crisis facing people waiting months for their cancer diagnosis or dying from a heart attack before the ambulance arrives, and to start wittering on about your own cracked tooth!
    Bill Clinton mad very effective use of small anecdotes like that. If you don't believe me, check out some of his State of the Union speeches.

    Point is not that you are downplaying serious issues, on contrary putting them in personal, even mundane terms, that a pre-school could grasp and understand.
    Indeed, it's a technique that dates back to one J. Christ and no doubt before.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    I don't think Mordaunt was that poor, Truss didn't do that great, Sunak did OK but it was Tugendhat who actually won the debate with viewers. However it is still Tory members who have the final say

    Yep good point. CH4 viewers and Tory members are very different kettles of fish. Truss going down badly last night could be great for her. Shows she's annoying all the right people and might well have increased her appeal to the grassroots. Can she make the final vs Sunak though? Where will those Tug and Badenoch votes go? It's on a knife edge. Next week will be impossibly tense and exciting. My hunch - more will go to Sunak than people think and he'll end up with a good lead in MPs. Then has 6 weeks to overturn his deficit cf Mordaunt or Truss with the members. Maybe he can do it. Betting, I've taken my Mordaunt profits and no new bets for now.
    I nearly cashed out of PM last night but decided to stick around in the hope she makes the final two. I'm now in the RS camp.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,591

    Jonathan said:

    My son off to university next year is currently making pizzas in Sainsburys. His induction training included how to clear up vomit and faeces. He was then informed that a certain customer was known to relieve himself at the end of the bread aisle.

    It’s a good education.

    My first job was IT support for a corporate rollout of shiny new Windows 95.

    My first job involved writing out pay packets for factory workers. This was in the days people were paid in cash, and The Sweeney (ask your gran) would show villains robbing the cash for payroll that was held in the safe overnight, or robbing security vans delivering cash to the factories.
    My job at the Wimpy paid £1.50 per hour for a 10 hour day, six day week, paid in a cash paypacket on Friday night. The staff were an interesting inverted society of students like myself, supervised by permanent staff who had left school at 16. We were much the same age and after closing at 2100 we all piled down the pub, so little was left by Monday. It was fun, for a few months. Cleaning out the fat fryers was the worst bit, but I have had worse jobs since.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    The problem is that, whilst I'm sure Kemi had told the truth about her life story, she might not have told the whole truth...

    The story which KB has allowed to develop is a good one, moving here to escape a bad country as a child, pulling herself up by her bootstraps (state school, McDonald's), proper degree (computing! white heat!).

    The other bits of the story (daughter of globetrotting academic, second degree in law, worked in consultancy and financial services, associate director at Coutts and later at The Spectator)... they give a different impression. Not one that makes her ineligible, she's clearly very talented. And everyone prudent edits their life story to best effect. But it gives a different impression.

    At least Rishi has never made a secret of his squillionaire credentials.
    Most people have had a variety of life experiences and can spin it one way or another. I could tell you two different, completely true but partial, stories about my life that would make me sound like two entirely different people.
    Yup, I think with Kemi, the fact that she has multiple threads to her life is a huge positive. Loads of our politicians simply go directly from Oxford or Cambridge into a think tank then into the party and then a SpAd, eventually becoming an MP when enough credit has been built up for a run at a safe seat.
    Yes

    But she is too young and callow tho. A few years in a tough job - Home Sec? - would season her nicely
    You've put your finger on the nub of the issue there.
    There are 5 surviving candidates. 3 of them need a few years in a tough job to season them.
    Of the other two, well. It is Conservatives who are saying they weren't very good at them.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Yes, the downgrades have begun, as is often the case as the event nears. It’s now forecast to be a mild 39c in London. Wrap up warm!

    Good news is the nighttime forecast has dropped to 19. Might actually be possible to get some sleep.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    HEAT-WATCH

    The chances of 40C have diminished somewhat. Cloud and breeze. Somewhere will, probably, still break the all time record however

    And a host of lesser records will go. From overnight minima to records further north - indeed the north could experience a Canadian heat dome moment with temps shattering records by 3-5C

    Do we perhaps spot the end of the ferret's tail?

    My prediction two days ago was

    Beat 40C: 30%

    Beat the record: 50%

    I stand by that today. Good solid prediction. I’ve no idea what yours is because you never made one
    Sky today reports higher chances, 50% and 80%

    edit screwed up link cos on fone
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,799

    Reflecting on the debate last night - is there any realistic chance Truss makes it through to final two and wins?

    Surely not?!

    If Truss can nause up a debate, then so can Mordaunt or Sunak tomorrow or next week. There are three people playing for two places (sorry, Tom and Kemi). There is also the factor that for many MPs on the right, Truss is the only game in town (since it is only me who suspects Rishi is secretly Thatcherite). Sure, Truss is a goal down but there is another debate tomorrow before Tugendhat is voted out Monday, then another debate Wednesday.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,650
    edited July 2022

    Yes, the downgrades have begun, as is often the case as the event nears. It’s now forecast to be a mild 39c in London. Wrap up warm!

    Good news is the nighttime forecast has dropped to 19. Might actually be possible to get some sleep.
    I'm not sure where these 'downgrades' are. MO have 42C here in the Flatlands in their high resolution model:


    There is a hint that high cloud associated with the front might limit Tuesday's max, but it is effin hot all the way.

    I think it is almost certain somewhere will see 40C.

    Edit: Also, don't see anything lower than 26C in London on Monday night
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,799

    Yes, the downgrades have begun, as is often the case as the event nears. It’s now forecast to be a mild 39c in London. Wrap up warm!

    Good news is the nighttime forecast has dropped to 19. Might actually be possible to get some sleep.
    Sleep is overrated. You can join the pb night shift.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,125

    Yes, the downgrades have begun, as is often the case as the event nears. It’s now forecast to be a mild 39c in London. Wrap up warm!

    Netweathwer still thinks 42 here
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,591
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.

    The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.

    2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
    Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.

    https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/536194-osinbajo-meets-with-his-support-groups-restates-support-for-tinubu.html

    There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:

    https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/07/nigerian-politicians-pollute-the-earth-fumes-kemi-badenoch-uk-lawmaker/

    Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
    Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?

    I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
    The problem is that, whilst I'm sure Kemi had told the truth about her life story, she might not have told the whole truth...

    The story which KB has allowed to develop is a good one, moving here to escape a bad country as a child, pulling herself up by her bootstraps (state school, McDonald's), proper degree (computing! white heat!).

    The other bits of the story (daughter of globetrotting academic, second degree in law, worked in consultancy and financial services, associate director at Coutts and later at The Spectator)... they give a different impression. Not one that makes her ineligible, she's clearly very talented. And everyone prudent edits their life story to best effect. But it gives a different impression.

    At least Rishi has never made a secret of his squillionaire credentials.
    Most people have had a variety of life experiences and can spin it one way or another. I could tell you two different, completely true but partial, stories about my life that would make me sound like two entirely different people.
    Yup, I think with Kemi, the fact that she has multiple threads to her life is a huge positive. Loads of our politicians simply go directly from Oxford or Cambridge into a think tank then into the party and then a SpAd, eventually becoming an MP when enough credit has been built up for a run at a safe seat.
    Though Mordaunts back story has as many threads. Father a teacher and ex Paratrooper, mother dying while she was a teenager, leaving her in a caring role. Working as a magicians assistant amongst other things. Married and divorced young etc. Plenty of threads there.

This discussion has been closed.