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Support for Brexit drops to new low with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

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  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    Leon said:

    I think he probably insulted the Palestinians as well. And the Irish. Impressive
    Remember when we used to worry about the orange loon flying around the world and egregiously offending everyone? About that…
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227

    It's a common view among Irish nationalists and their US supporters - undiplomatic to Israel and Britain, as you say, but not a sign of senility.
    Yeah I don't think we need to worry about .. hold on HE'S THE PRESIDENT !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Not necessarily
    Yes necessarily, 47% do not want to rejoin the EU, given over 400 constituencies voted Leave, that is still likely a narrow majority of seats voting Leave, so backing rejoin and free movement suicide under FPTP

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1543321577181380609?s=20&t=BImwVdlI2b7IAEaSUky1Pg
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited July 2022
    Regarding price elasticity of petrol are there any recent figures for usage?
    Anecdotally, I've noticed no fall during peak times.
    But the dual carriageway has seemed noticeably quieter off peak.
    Or maybe I didn't pay attention before?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Yes, I agree. I can't work out whether he is being stupid or mendacious

    If he reaches power he will shift towards a much more pro-EU stance, willingly or not
    Could it be that Starmer is maybe - at least politically - a wee bit SMARTER than you or even OGH on this?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,479
    FPT: Mr. Password, hope things improve for you.

    The differing psychological impact of lockdowns is not something that should be underestimated.

    Mr. B, Biden should be forgiven. He's clearly senile.

    Ms. Livermore, huzzah! Who else among PBers has now become a verb as well as a noun? :D
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Central London at the moment: cloudy, warm, not hot. You wouldn't guess it might be 40C on Monday.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TimS said:

    I do wonder if after all this the membership realise Rishi is actually half competent and might be better sticking with him.
    Competence is NOT a core "true" Tory value. Not in THIS millennium, at least so far.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    Could it be that Starmer is maybe - at least politically - a wee bit SMARTER than you or even OGH on this?
    No. Next
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It's a common view among Irish nationalists and their US supporters - undiplomatic to Israel and Britain, as you say, but not a sign of senility.
    The senility issue is already beyond dispute, though.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/president-joe-biden-mocked-anchorman-27438808
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    @margbrennan
    President Biden while standing in East Jerusalem: “…the background of my family is Irish American. And we have a long history not fundamentally unlike the Palestinian people, with Great Britain and their attitude toward Irish Catholics over the years for 400 years.”


    https://twitter.com/margbrennan/status/1547902247513645061

    Quick, someone ask him what the Irish Catholics and Palestinians think about abortion.
  • Could it be that Starmer is maybe - at least politically - a wee bit SMARTER than you or even OGH on this?
    He's Labour Boris Johnson.

    An unscrupulous, unprincipled chancer who will do anything, say anything and screw over anyone to get himself into the top.

    That may win an election for Labour. I leave it to you to determine if that's a good thing or not.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Leon said:

    It's an enormous gaffe
    Jill did her bit the other day by likening hispanic voters to tacos.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    FPT: Mr. Password, hope things improve for you.

    The differing psychological impact of lockdowns is not something that should be underestimated.

    Mr. B, Biden should be forgiven. He's clearly senile.

    Ms. Livermore, huzzah! Who else among PBers has now become a verb as well as a noun? :D

    Its got so bad some polls even have him losing in a 2024 rematch to the Donald.

    The bad news is the other main Dem candidates would lose by even more.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,361

    I would argue that I have more compassion for children and their future than I do for those in their 80s and 90s who have lived their lives to the full anyway already.

    I think that is the common sense and humane position too.

    Fucking over children in order to help those who have already lived their lives, is not common sense, and it is not humane.
    As I said, lacking compassion, humanity and common sense.

    I need to caveat this a little. My own view is that the March 2020 lockdown was utterly necessary. We knew very little about how this little bu**er acted, how we could protect ourselves, and what its long-term consequences were.

    The lockdowns up to and including January 2021 were also probably justified. We knew more about the virus, but not enough vaccine doses had been given to justify relaxing them. We can argue about them. And Starmer was utterly wrong for wanting more restrictions late last year. But IMV the March 2020 one was utterly unavoidable.

    Now, why do I think your position lacks common sense? Because even before the lockdown on March 23rd 2020, people were locking themselves down. Many companies had already started WfH. Without 'official' lockdowns, and more would have rapidly happened. And it would have been utterly disorganised and potentially much more harmful to the economy.

    Worse, kids would have been affected. We all would have been affected. If the hospitals were swamped with Covid patients (not just the oldies you hate) and you - or your children - got ill, then you may not get the help you need. The health service would have broken down. You would be gambling that no-one you loved would get ill.

    The only 'solution' to this would have been quite evil: to reduce the strain on the NHS by not treating oldies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    The senility issue is already beyond dispute, though.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/president-joe-biden-mocked-anchorman-27438808
    And this, over a year ago. Excruciating

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gcQrFsUFzQ


    I feel sorry for him. Even the NYT now openly discusses his advanced years and obvious decline

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/09/us/politics/biden-age-democrats.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    dixiedean said:

    Regarding price elasticity of petrol are there any recent figures for usage?
    Anecdotally, I've noticed no fall during peak times.
    But the dual carriageway has seemed noticeably quieter off peak.
    Or maybe I didn't pay attention before?

    My usage for one remains remarkably constant whatever the price.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,257
    edited July 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Seven photos of vegetables in one post??

    Someone posted a composite of the first round Con leadership hopefuls? Which one did they miss out? :wink:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,361
    Sandpit said:

    The S-400 is failing badly against the HIMARS. Which is hillarious, because each S400 defence rocket is an order of magnitide more expensive than the rockets the enemy is facing. They’ll be out of them soon enough, chasing rainbows.
    Sadly, the Russians appear to be using Surface-to-Air missiles in a Surface-to-Ground role. They are designed for this, but are apparently highly inaccurate.

    At this stage it seems the Russians are not even trying to pretend they are going after military targets. They just want to destroy Ukraine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    edited July 2022
    OMFG

    "It’s becoming very disturbing to listen to #JoeBiden embarrassing himself and America. This time in #Israel

    “To keep alive the truth and Honour of the holocaust”"

    He actually says that. My quietly senile mother makes more sense than this, and makes fewer painful errors

    https://twitter.com/WhistleIRL/status/1547521321466318849?s=20&t=PxtsL7_L_00HeQWDpeFXrw
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Chris Williamson
    @ChrisWillx

    “According to Pew Research, 51% of men between the ages of 18 and 29 are single compared to 32% of women in the same age group.”

    https://twitter.com/ChrisWillx/status/1547928971718828033
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    As I said, lacking compassion, humanity and common sense.

    I need to caveat this a little. My own view is that the March 2020 lockdown was utterly necessary. We knew very little about how this little bu**er acted, how we could protect ourselves, and what its long-term consequences were.

    The lockdowns up to and including January 2021 were also probably justified. We knew more about the virus, but not enough vaccine doses had been given to justify relaxing them. We can argue about them. And Starmer was utterly wrong for wanting more restrictions late last year. But IMV the March 2020 one was utterly unavoidable.

    Now, why do I think your position lacks common sense? Because even before the lockdown on March 23rd 2020, people were locking themselves down. Many companies had already started WfH. Without 'official' lockdowns, and more would have rapidly happened. And it would have been utterly disorganised and potentially much more harmful to the economy.

    Worse, kids would have been affected. We all would have been affected. If the hospitals were swamped with Covid patients (not just the oldies you hate) and you - or your children - got ill, then you may not get the help you need. The health service would have broken down. You would be gambling that no-one you loved would get ill.

    The only 'solution' to this would have been quite evil: to reduce the strain on the NHS by not treating oldies.
    I wonder how old BR is. 39?

    Mind, I'm at least two decades older, and I'm infuriated by the Conservatives' taxation policy in favour of wealthy pensioners!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,764
    Sandpit said:

    Surely someone has to say it at the hustings tonight?

    FUEL DUTY, you idiots.

    (At her launch, Penny suggested cutting VAT on petrol in half. Which does nothing for the hauliers).
    But people understand it


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,175

    I would argue that I have more compassion for children and their future than I do for those in their 80s and 90s who have lived their lives to the full anyway already.

    I think that is the common sense and humane position too.

    Fucking over children in order to help those who have already lived their lives, is not common sense, and it is not humane.
    What about Covid victims in their 60s and 70s? That's a third of Covid deaths.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromcovid19byageband

    And how long were schools closed? A term?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Andy_JS said:

    "Chris Williamson
    @ChrisWillx

    “According to Pew Research, 51% of men between the ages of 18 and 29 are single compared to 32% of women in the same age group.”

    https://twitter.com/ChrisWillx/status/1547928971718828033

    Thats pretty worrying stats.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Foxy said:

    On the contrary, the move is very much in the other direction. Politicians cannot ignore polling like this forever, or at least not if they want to win an election.
    Predicated on the notion that the electorate views Europe as a priority and wants to spend lots more time talking about it. Not convinced.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    "Chris Williamson
    @ChrisWillx

    “According to Pew Research, 51% of men between the ages of 18 and 29 are single compared to 32% of women in the same age group.”

    https://twitter.com/ChrisWillx/status/1547928971718828033

    Hang on, what?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    Thats pretty worrying stats.
    It strongly implies hot young women are dating charming, rakish and amusing older men?? Surely not
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pulpstar said:

    My usage for one remains remarkably constant whatever the price.
    Exactly. The amount of discretionary petrol usage is tiny. The PED of 1.1 - the more notable change in behaviour is as likely to be people driving more slowly on the motorways, as opposed to not making journeys because of the petrol price.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,333
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    It is deeply ironic that we may end up rejoining the EU just as it turns into uninhabitable desert, and they all want to move to the blissfully temperate British Isles

    Blissfully temperate northern part of the British isles. Carribean temperatures to go with the turquoise sea and white sand of Luskintyre..

    Would ruin the fecking place of course.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    As I said, lacking compassion, humanity and common sense.

    I need to caveat this a little. My own view is that the March 2020 lockdown was utterly necessary. We knew very little about how this little bu**er acted, how we could protect ourselves, and what its long-term consequences were.

    The lockdowns up to and including January 2021 were also probably justified. We knew more about the virus, but not enough vaccine doses had been given to justify relaxing them. We can argue about them. And Starmer was utterly wrong for wanting more restrictions late last year. But IMV the March 2020 one was utterly unavoidable.

    Now, why do I think your position lacks common sense? Because even before the lockdown on March 23rd 2020, people were locking themselves down. Many companies had already started WfH. Without 'official' lockdowns, and more would have rapidly happened. And it would have been utterly disorganised and potentially much more harmful to the economy.

    Worse, kids would have been affected. We all would have been affected. If the hospitals were swamped with Covid patients (not just the oldies you hate) and you - or your children - got ill, then you may not get the help you need. The health service would have broken down. You would be gambling that no-one you loved would get ill.

    The only 'solution' to this would have been quite evil: to reduce the strain on the NHS by not treating oldies.
    I've read his comments and I don't agree that they're lacking in compassion, humanity and common sense.
  • I've seen it all now, Keir Starmer the Labour Boris Johnson? ROFL wut
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited July 2022

    Blissfully temperate northern part of the British isles. Carribean temperatures to go with the turquoise sea and white sand of Luskentyre..

    Would ruin the fecking place of course.
    Plenty of peelywally maidens wearing traditional Rangers and Celtic leis, anyway.

    No watering the garden either this w/e - was drizzling most of the morning, with some sessions of definite pissing down.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913
    Leon said:

    OMFG

    "It’s becoming very disturbing to listen to #JoeBiden embarrassing himself and America. This time in #Israel

    “To keep alive the truth and Honour of the holocaust”"

    He actually says that. My quietly senile mother makes more sense than this, and makes fewer painful errors

    https://twitter.com/WhistleIRL/status/1547521321466318849?s=20&t=PxtsL7_L_00HeQWDpeFXrw

    I don't think this is evidence of senility. Biden has always struggled with word order, and especially closely related words. I know someone with dyslexia who makes similar mistakes. It's clear that Biden intended to say something along the lines keeping alive the truth and honouring the victims of the Holocaust. I think Biden's problems here are more to do with a speech rather than dementia. Plus, the man is 80, and even the sharpest 80 year olds are prone to a bit of brain fog.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,723
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    "Chris Williamson
    @ChrisWillx

    “According to Pew Research, 51% of men between the ages of 18 and 29 are single compared to 32% of women in the same age group.”

    https://twitter.com/ChrisWillx/status/1547928971718828033

    Is that a load of older guys' second marriages, or an increasing number of gay (lesbian) marriages ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,175
    Endillion said:

    Quick, someone ask him what the Irish Catholics and Palestinians think about abortion.
    You do know abortion is now legal in Ireland, although only up to 12 weeks except for exceptions? They had a referendum and everything.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland
  • novanova Posts: 754

    83% of current LAB voters in latest YouGov say Brexit wrong. Starmer is getting out of line with his voters
    6% of Remain voters think it was the right decision.
    15% of Leave voters think it was the wrong decision.

    Sure, 15% is a reasonable amount, but the vast majority of those who "won" the vote are still on board, so trying to reopen the issue remains hugely decisive.

    Not sure it's a road that Labour want to go down, when they could probably reduce a huge amount of the impact of Brexit without reopening the yes/no debate.
  • What about Covid victims in their 60s and 70s? That's a third of Covid deaths.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromcovid19byageband

    And how long were schools closed? A term?
    Try two years of disruption. Many terms. My eldest is in Year 3, her last uninterrupted year by Covid before this one was Reception.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited July 2022
    I'm sure that European gas rationing will vindicate Alistair Meeks's view that opinion is swinging behind rejoining.

    Die Welt reports that among the EU's considered proposals are limiting temperatures this winter in civic and commercial buildings to nineteen degrees centigrade.

    I'm sure all those pictures of Germans at their desks in puffa jackets will rally even more British voters to the EU's cause.

    The German Social Democrats meanwhile are once again making noises about peace with Putin. Another big plus for remainers cause in Britain, surely.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Unpopular said:

    I don't think this is evidence of senility. Biden has always struggled with word order, and especially closely related words. I know someone with dyslexia who makes similar mistakes. It's clear that Biden intended to say something along the lines keeping alive the truth and honouring the victims of the Holocaust. I think Biden's problems here are more to do with a speech rather than dementia. Plus, the man is 80, and even the sharpest 80 year olds are prone to a bit of brain fog.
    Because they have senile dementia.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    Unpopular said:

    I don't think this is evidence of senility. Biden has always struggled with word order, and especially closely related words. I know someone with dyslexia who makes similar mistakes. It's clear that Biden intended to say something along the lines keeping alive the truth and honouring the victims of the Holocaust. I think Biden's problems here are more to do with a speech rather than dementia. Plus, the man is 80, and even the sharpest 80 year olds are prone to a bit of brain fog.
    In other words, yes he's senile
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    Leon said:

    OMFG

    "It’s becoming very disturbing to listen to #JoeBiden embarrassing himself and America. This time in #Israel

    “To keep alive the truth and Honour of the holocaust”"

    He actually says that. My quietly senile mother makes more sense than this, and makes fewer painful errors

    https://twitter.com/WhistleIRL/status/1547521321466318849?s=20&t=PxtsL7_L_00HeQWDpeFXrw

    To be fair he quite clearly misspoke ‘horror’ as ‘honour’ there and corrected himself.

    Not for any moment shying away from what I see as his obvious declining faculties, but I don’t think a stumble over a word here or there is that instructive.

    The “end of quote, repeat the line” stuff was much more problematic.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,417
    edited July 2022

    As I said, lacking compassion, humanity and common sense.

    I need to caveat this a little. My own view is that the March 2020 lockdown was utterly necessary. We knew very little about how this little bu**er acted, how we could protect ourselves, and what its long-term consequences were.

    The lockdowns up to and including January 2021 were also probably justified. We knew more about the virus, but not enough vaccine doses had been given to justify relaxing them. We can argue about them. And Starmer was utterly wrong for wanting more restrictions late last year. But IMV the March 2020 one was utterly unavoidable.

    Now, why do I think your position lacks common sense? Because even before the lockdown on March 23rd 2020, people were locking themselves down. Many companies had already started WfH. Without 'official' lockdowns, and more would have rapidly happened. And it would have been utterly disorganised and potentially much more harmful to the economy.

    Worse, kids would have been affected. We all would have been affected. If the hospitals were swamped with Covid patients (not just the oldies you hate) and you - or your children - got ill, then you may not get the help you need. The health service would have broken down. You would be gambling that no-one you loved would get ill.

    The only 'solution' to this would have been quite evil: to reduce the strain on the NHS by not treating oldies.
    I never said don't treat oldies, but you don't need to throw away the baby with the bathwater.

    In hindsight the NHS should treat people as well as it can, using triage if necessary, without a lockdown.

    Treat the oldies, and everyone else, as well as you can, using triage where necessary, but don't shut society to do it.

    Voluntary WfH etc is of course totally acceptable, without shutting schools or making it mandatory.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Nigelb said:

    Is that a load of older guys' second marriages, or an increasing number of gay (lesbian) marriages ?
    Not sure but the important bit is a lot of young men with no stable relationships. Probably one of the worst possible things for a society.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,361
    Andy_JS said:

    I've read his comments and I don't agree that they're lacking in compassion, humanity and common sense.
    Fair enough. I guess you're not old, or don't expect to get old?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    IshmaelZ said:

    Hang on, what?
    Maybe different definitions of 'single'...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Leon said:

    It strongly implies hot young women are dating charming, rakish and amusing older men?? Surely not
    Wealth is correlated with age ...
  • Fair enough. I guess you're not old, or don't expect to get old?
    Why do only old people matter?

    Why don't young people matter?

    I would jump in front of a bus to save my children. Instead we threw our children under the bus to "save" those at the end of their life, from natural deaths.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon said:

    In other words, yes he's senile
    Time for Harris to take over then.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MISTY said:

    I'm sure that European gas rationing will vindicate Alistair Meeks's view that opinion is swinging behind rejoining.

    Die Welt reports that among the EU's considered proposals are limiting temperatures this winter in civic and commercial buildings to nineteen degrees centigrade.

    I'm sure all those pictures of Germans at their desks in puffa jackets will rally even more British voters to the EU's cause.

    The German Social Democrats meanwhile are once again making noises about peace with Putin. Another big plus for remainers cause in Britain, surely.

    It isn't Alistair Meeks's view, it is YouGov's finding. Whether you like it or not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,723
    .
    MISTY said:

    I'm sure that European gas rationing will vindicate Alistair Meeks's view that opinion is swinging behind rejoining.

    Die Welt reports that among the EU's considered proposals are limiting temperatures this winter in civic and commercial buildings to nineteen degrees centigrade.

    I'm sure all those pictures of Germans at their desks in puffa jackets will rally even more British voters to the EU's cause.

    The German Social Democrats meanwhile are once again making noises about peace with Putin. Another big plus for remainers cause in Britain, surely.

    Nineteen degrees ?
    The horror.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Fair enough. I guess you're not old, or don't expect to get old?
    Talkin' 'bout my de-generation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited July 2022

    Why do only old people matter?

    Why don't young people matter?

    I would jump in front of a bus to save my children. Instead we threw our children under the bus to "save" those at the end of their life, from natural deaths.
    Catching covid from you because you can't be arsed to stay at home even when you know you have it is natural?

    Natural is whatever one likes it to mean, like cornflakes and greenwashing oil companies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    Windy.com forecast seems to have the epicentre of Tuesday's heatwave right outside my front door.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,417
    edited July 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Catching covid from you because you can't be arsed to stay at home even when you know you have it is natural?
    Yes.

    If I only have the sniffles then I will treat it as I always treat the sniffles.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Yes.

    If I only have the sniffles then I will treat it as I always treat the sniffles.
    You never will be made to admit that covid is an inherently variable disease, will you? "It's only a cold."

    Away and stand in the middle of the road. I did it the other day and the driver stopped. So you will undoubtedly be all right ...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    MISTY said:


    Its clear, surely, that Yougov and others have problems reaching brexit voters. On the eve of the 2016 vote the polls showed a comfortable remain victory, right? Remain then lost, and in England they lost handily.

    Starmer is where he is because he knows this, as all serious politicians know it.

    Okay some facts.
    "Three days before the vote, YouGov showed a two point lead for Leave. It was barely reported and didn’t move the markets. A subsequent eve of voting poll showed too close to call (51-49 Remain) and, unfortunately, our final on-the-day recontact study moved an additional percentage point in the wrong direction to 48/52 in favour of Remain"
    ".. we publish a margin of error of 3% on most polls, which we encourage media to make reference to), but overall our data showed the very close race that was eventually revealed."

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    On topic: so fucking what? We've left. None of the Tory candidates will take us back in. Neither will Starmer.

    It's a cul de sac. When there are 8-lane highways of relevance to be considered by our politicians.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Nigelb said:

    Russia'a sanctioned oil is finding its way to some strange places.

    https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1547893337989922816
    Sanctions are making some very weird things possible. Saudi is buying Russian crude at a huge discount to BURN FOR POWER and then exporting their own to Europe.

    Though in this case, that's not perverse in terms of their intended effect.

    Bloody Liz Truss boasting about sanctions earlier and criticising Europe for still buying Russian gas. Too thick to realise that we’re still buying Russian oil, just blended or refined in third countries, that are making off like bandits.

    I’ll say it again until it sinks in via osmosis to our thicko policy makers. Putin is exporting more oil today than before the war started. Because your sanctions regime isn’t fit for purpose.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913
    Leon said:

    In other words, yes he's senile
    Age related cognitive decline is a well established phenomenon. Everyone will experience it to some degree, and for some it will reach the threshold for dementia.

    I just don't think him messing up his lines is evidence of dementia, when it's also known that dyslexics and those with speech impediments often have trouble with word order and the use of words. Don't know if you've watched Biden's White House Correspondent's Dinner, but his delivery of the jokes is terrible and you can see that he struggles with public speaking.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Back anyone but Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson begs defeated rivals" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/back-anyone-but-sunak-prime-minister-begs-defeated-rivals-c7dnv8k3v
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    Brexit wrong now Brexit Right leading by a whopping 18% and the Tories are doubling down on it and heading towards an ERG puppet government led by Truss. What could possibly go wrong?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,112

    It's a cul de sac. When there are 8-lane highways of relevance to be considered by our politicians.

    Brexit is indeed a cul de sac, and eventually even Kippers are going to start asking how we reverse out of it
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    Sunak far more impressive than the rest in the ten minutes I heard. The summary said Fizzy has promised gazillions in tax cuts and extra spending. Most expensive zoom call in history according to Times Political correspondent.
    Forget those ten minutes. What about the last two years, during which which time his policies have been simultaneously low growth and inflationary, while ballooning public debt?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    You do know abortion is now legal in Ireland, although only up to 12 weeks except for exceptions? They had a referendum and everything.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland
    Sure, and the massively reduced power of the Catholic Church there in recent years is the main reason why the law was able to be changed.

    Also, yes - only up to 12 weeks. Which is a compromise solution, that reflects the deeply-held views of many Irish Catholics on this issue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Andy_JS said:

    "Back anyone but Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson begs defeated rivals" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/back-anyone-but-sunak-prime-minister-begs-defeated-rivals-c7dnv8k3v

    We had a thread header about this earlier today. It's almost as if you are letting work interfere with your PB time. Shocking.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Unpopular said:

    Age related cognitive decline is a well established phenomenon. Everyone will experience it to some degree, and for some it will reach the threshold for dementia.

    I just don't think him messing up his lines is evidence of dementia, when it's also known that dyslexics and those with speech impediments often have trouble with word order and the use of words. Don't know if you've watched Biden's White House Correspondent's Dinner, but his delivery of the jokes is terrible and you can see that he struggles with public speaking.
    And dyslexia is a known major risk factor for dementia. All your points seem to be points against you.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Nigelb said:

    Is that a load of older guys' second marriages, or an increasing number of gay (lesbian) marriages ?
    It has always been the case (historically) that 80% of females reproduce compared to 40% of males. Although not directly related to the figure you quote it does seem to have the same kind of 2:1 distribution.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,175
    Betfair next PM prices

    Penny & Kemi being nibbled.

    2.08 Penny Mordaunt 48%
    3.75 Liz Truss 27%
    4.7 Rishi Sunak 21%
    26 Kemi Badenoch
    120 Tom Tugendhat
    180 Dominic Raab
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Okay some facts.
    "Three days before the vote, YouGov showed a two point lead for Leave. It was barely reported and didn’t move the markets. A subsequent eve of voting poll showed too close to call (51-49 Remain) and, unfortunately, our final on-the-day recontact study moved an additional percentage point in the wrong direction to 48/52 in favour of Remain"
    ".. we publish a margin of error of 3% on most polls, which we encourage media to make reference to), but overall our data showed the very close race that was eventually revealed."

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right
    And the latest poll is Rejoin the EU 53% Stay Out 47%, little different.

    That is the relevant polling, not Brexit right or wrong as it is done now, the only alternative is rejoin the full EU, make clear to voters that likely means the Euro too and swiftly Stay Out has a majority again

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1543321577181380609?s=20&t=BImwVdlI2b7IAEaSUky1Pg
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,417
    edited July 2022
    Carnyx said:

    You never will be made to admit that covid is an inherently variable disease, will you? "It's only a cold."

    Away and stand in the middle of the road. I did it the other day and the driver stopped. So you will undoubtedly be all right ...
    No shit Sherlock its a variable disease. So treat the symptoms is my answer, rather than one size fits all.

    If you have the sniffles, then blow into a tissue if you need to and live your life normally.

    If you have a sore throat, then take some Strepsils* and live normally.

    If you feel poorly, maybe take some Lemsip* and live normally.

    If you feel rotten, have some bed rest, like you would with any other virus.

    If you're really sick, seek medical treatment if needed, if its available, as you would with any other illness.

    The fact its variable means the response should be varied to how it affects you.

    * Other brands are available.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,361

    Why do only old people matter?

    Why don't young people matter?

    I would jump in front of a bus to save my children. Instead we threw our children under the bus to "save" those at the end of their life, from natural deaths.
    Who said only old people matter? Who said young people do not matter? Young people got sick with Covid as well. In March 2020 we had zero idea what the long-term consequences of the disease were going to be. And as I've pointed out, there were plenty of ways in which young people could become ill and suffer under your brave new word.

    Here is another one: my parents did not die. Because of that, my son has had them for a couple of years longer than might be the case. He is forming memories with them, which would not have happened if they had become ill and died. If they had died, he would have been absolutely devastated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    You do know abortion is now legal in Ireland, although only up to 12 weeks except for exceptions? They had a referendum and everything.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland
    The new Irish law on abortion is still not as liberal as it was in the US under Roe v Wade
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    To be fair he quite clearly misspoke ‘horror’ as ‘honour’ there and corrected himself.

    Not for any moment shying away from what I see as his obvious declining faculties, but I don’t think a stumble over a word here or there is that instructive.

    The “end of quote, repeat the line” stuff was much more problematic.

    But he can't say "Yad Vashem" either, and it is there written down in front of him

    I'm not saying this because I want the Dems to lose and Trump to win, it is far better if the Dems admit the problem now, accept Biden is past it, accept Harris is a berk, and find someone under 70 next time, maybe even - my God - under 60

    Biden and Trump, if nothing else, are such an appallingly apposite symbol of America's faltering decline. I don't want to stare at this every day
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    No shit Sherlock its a variable disease. So treat the symptoms is my answer, rather than one size fits all.

    If you have the sniffles, then blow into a tissue if you need to and live your life normally.

    If you have a sore throat, then take some Strepsils* and live normally.

    If you feel poorly, maybe take some Lemsip* and live normally.

    If you feel rotten, have some bed rest, like you would with any other virus.

    If you're really sick, seek medical treatment if needed, if its available, as you would with any other illness.

    The fact its variable means the response should be varied to how it affects you.

    * Other brands are available.
    "The fact its variable means the response should be varied to how it affects you."

    That is the crux. It doesn't just affect selfish libertarians.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    edited July 2022
    We will only rejoin the EU if we get to a stage where the British people accept that they want us to re-enter as a fully fledged member without opt outs or caveats and that we are signed up to the project wholeheartedly.

    We are not getting back in again unless that simple truth is accepted by all sides.

    Short of seismic change in Brussels, we are not getting a cushy bespoke membership option, we are not getting single market a la carte, and we are certainly not going back in if the prevailing mood is that we’ll just cause trouble and sod off again in another 30 years.

    That’s why, IMHO, rejoin is not an issue for this generation (and I’m not defining this in the way Nicola Sturgeon defines a generation).

    Our politicians focus has to be to make Brexit work for the next 30-40 years. That’s why Starmer’s stance is the right one IMHO.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    On topic: so fucking what? We've left. None of the Tory candidates will take us back in. Neither will Starmer.

    It's a cul de sac. When there are 8-lane highways of relevance to be considered by our politicians.

    Someone's rattled.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Andy_JS said:

    "Chris Williamson
    @ChrisWillx

    “According to Pew Research, 51% of men between the ages of 18 and 29 are single compared to 32% of women in the same age group.”

    https://twitter.com/ChrisWillx/status/1547928971718828033

    So that means some men are dating multiple women
  • Who said only old people matter? Who said young people do not matter? Young people got sick with Covid as well. In March 2020 we had zero idea what the long-term consequences of the disease were going to be. And as I've pointed out, there were plenty of ways in which young people could become ill and suffer under your brave new word.

    Here is another one: my parents did not die. Because of that, my son has had them for a couple of years longer than might be the case. He is forming memories with them, which would not have happened if they had become ill and died. If they had died, he would have been absolutely devastated.
    Screwing schools over for two years, not one term, said that young people don't matter.

    Loading £400bn of debt onto our children's shoulders said that young people don't matter.

    Sweden did the right thing without having lockdown. We screwed up. I made a mistake supporting what we did, for that I apologise.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    It has always been the case (historically) that 80% of females reproduce compared to 40% of males. Although not directly related to the figure you quote it does seem to have the same kind of 2:1 distribution.
    Is that true? 40%?

    That's a fascinating statistic. I'm not doubting it but do you have a link?
  • Carnyx said:

    "The fact its variable means the response should be varied to how it affects you."

    That is the crux. It doesn't just affect selfish libertarians.
    So what?

    Everyone can choose their own response, based upon how they're affected, or their own priorities.

    Other people getting a natural airborne virus that 5% of the population have today is just nature.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    dixiedean said:

    Regarding price elasticity of petrol are there any recent figures for usage?
    Anecdotally, I've noticed no fall during peak times.
    But the dual carriageway has seemed noticeably quieter off peak.
    Or maybe I didn't pay attention before?

    There are experimental government statistics on road fuel sales. It's pretty hard to interpret the figures because of the effect of lockdown on prior years. Sales are down compared to average for year to date, but could that be a seasonal effect in part? And prices have been high for most of year to date anyway.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/average-road-fuel-sales-and-stock-levels
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    It has always been the case (historically) that 80% of females reproduce compared to 40% of males. Although not directly related to the figure you quote it does seem to have the same kind of 2:1 distribution.
    Evidence? Certainly in the 19th and 20th century the vast majority of western males would have married and reproduced
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,607
    Sandpit said:

    Exactly. The amount of discretionary petrol usage is tiny. The PED of 1.1 - the more notable change in behaviour is as likely to be people driving more slowly on the motorways, as opposed to not making journeys because of the petrol price.
    The mileage driven is remarkably price insensitive (although I’m sure there’s a price where that really starts to kick in!) but cutting your speed on the motorway makes a big difference to the amount of fuel used / mile, so fuel consumption is clearly much more price sensitive.

    IIRC the difference between 65mph and 80mph is > 20% increase in fuel consumption. Plus you save on tyre wear by driving slower...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,723
    moonshine said:

    Bloody Liz Truss boasting about sanctions earlier and criticising Europe for still buying Russian gas. Too thick to realise that we’re still buying Russian oil, just blended or refined in third countries, that are making off like bandits.

    I’ll say it again until it sinks in via osmosis to our thicko policy makers. Putin is exporting more oil today than before the war started. Because your sanctions regime isn’t fit for purpose.
    Two elements to that.

    First, as far as gas is concerned, Russia will find it hard to sell the gas its supplying to Europe elsewhere, as it lacks the capacity to deliver it.

    Second, sanctions have had some success in reducing get price Russia gets for its oil, as this story makes quite clear. Saudi oil is pretty cheap to produce; if it's paying them to buy Russian oil rather than use their own, then that will be a very low price.
    Russia does have the capacity to deliver oil more or less where it chooses. Unless there's sufficient supply outside of Russia to replace its production, then the will continue to be able to see it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,361
    HYUFD said:

    So that means some men are dating multiple women
    SeanT. It's got to be SeanT ;)

    Having said that, it does seem a large disparity.

    But what does 'single' mean in this context? Having a partner? Living with that partner?

    I would have classed myself as 'single' until I reached 27, when a girlfriend moved in with me. I had girlfriends, but we did not share our lives too much. We would meet up, have meals, go to the cinema, sleep over occasionally, have fun, etc, but we were independent of each other. This does not mean I did not cheat on them; just that we had our own independent lives and homes.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited July 2022

    It has always been the case (historically) that 80% of females reproduce compared to 40% of males. Although not directly related to the figure you quote it does seem to have the same kind of 2:1 distribution.
    It kinda ties in with what I know of my old school colleagues although the bit about being single(different if related stat) may be explained a bit by males and females differing slightly on the definition of "single"
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    FPT: Flatlander said: "I suspect (no calculations) that using solar roof tiles to power a reversible heat pump would be more effective.

    These are actually a thing now although they aren't cheap."

    That is, more effective than my suggestion of changing the color of color of roofs, making them more reflective in the summer, more absorbent in the winter.

    There were two qualifications in my original comment: for some buildings, in some climates. Let's say, for example, that you have a building that you plan to use for just five more years. It might make economic sense to repaint the roof twice a year, using very inexpensive paints (since they don't have to last long.

    (It is good to hear that the combination you describe is actually being installed in some places. And I can imagine it being a good choice -- for some buildings, in some climates. If not now, in the future.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Sadly, the Russians appear to be using Surface-to-Air missiles in a Surface-to-Ground role. They are designed for this, but are apparently highly inaccurate.

    At this stage it seems the Russians are not even trying to pretend they are going after military targets. They just want to destroy Ukraine.
    It's hard for the media to cover the military conflict, but easier for the media to cover damage to Ukrainian civilian infrastructure behind the front lines. They want to create the sense that Ukraine is losing so that the US public will decide they don't want to waste sending more support.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,417
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    So that means some men are dating multiple women
    Or it could mean that more young women are dating older men, than young men are dating older women.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    St Andrews has had its day. The Old Course is simply not fit for purpose for the modern players.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    Leon said:

    But he can't say "Yad Vashem" either, and it is there written down in front of him

    I'm not saying this because I want the Dems to lose and Trump to win, it is far better if the Dems admit the problem now, accept Biden is past it, accept Harris is a berk, and find someone under 70 next time, maybe even - my God - under 60

    Biden and Trump, if nothing else, are such an appallingly apposite symbol of America's faltering decline. I don't want to stare at this every day
    Oh, I’m in complete agreement there.

    Best case scenario is the Democrats ditch Biden and move to a new generation (with who though? Their current cupboard looks barer than the Tory Party’s and that’s definitely saying something) and the GOP drop their Trump obsession and move on to different candidates.

    At least that way we avoid the chaos of a Biden-Harris succession or a second Trump disaster.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,361

    Screwing schools over for two years, not one term, said that young people don't matter.

    Loading £400bn of debt onto our children's shoulders said that young people don't matter.

    Sweden did the right thing without having lockdown. We screwed up. I made a mistake supporting what we did, for that I apologise.
    You evidently have not read what I wrote. In particular, look at the but beyond 'caveat'.

    In March 2020 we knew bu**er all about this little sod. We were guessing. You can argue we erred too much on the side of caution, but it could easily have been the other way around. And I'd argue that even with hindsight, that first lockdown was the right thing - although it would have been nice to change details.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    Also FPT: BlancheLivermore - That's a fine looking Victory Garden!
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    tlg86 said:

    St Andrews has had its day. The Old Course is simply not fit for purpose for the modern players.

    more like for modern equipment ! but yes get your point. That said it does not really matter if somebody wins with 20 under par or 5 over par they still get the best score in the field and golf courses are supposed to be varied
  • You evidently have not read what I wrote. In particular, look at the but beyond 'caveat'.

    In March 2020 we knew bu**er all about this little sod. We were guessing. You can argue we erred too much on the side of caution, but it could easily have been the other way around. And I'd argue that even with hindsight, that first lockdown was the right thing - although it would have been nice to change details.
    Indeed which is why in March 2020 I supported lockdown.

    In hindsight that was a mistake. I did not realise it was a mistake at the time, but in hindsight, it was the wrong thing to do.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913
    IshmaelZ said:

    And dyslexia is a known major risk factor for dementia. All your points seem to be points against you.
    I wasn't aware of this link, that's very interesting, thank you. Though a quick Google (I know, I know) suggests that the relationship between the two is not as simple as dyslexia --> dementia. That elderly people who have had speech problems in the past perform worse in assessments is not to be unexpected and therefore are likely to be an overrepresented group, without underlying pathology. This is seen with Schizophrenia patients all the time. They have the diagnosis but their pathology doesn't really fit. I'm certain there are dementia patients with the same.

    At the end of the day, I think Biden's problems can be explained by his previous speech problems and age related decline without recourse to Alzheimer's or some other progressive dementia. In my opinion he's certainly too old for the modern presidency, but I don't think he's wandering through the west wing at night unable to remember where he is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited July 2022

    more like for modern equipment ! but yes get your point. That said it does not really matter if somebody wins with 20 under par or 5 over par they still get the best score in the field and golf courses are supposed to be varied
    The issue is a Major is supposed to be the ultimate test of golf. It isn't just how many under the winner is, it is wayward and poor shots aren't now punished.

    e.g. St Andrews back in the day, you would have to hit accurate shots of the tee to miss the fairway bunkers. Those who were slightly wayward end in the bunker, then struggling for par.

    Now they just smash it way over all the trouble.

    If we compare this to say challenge at Augusta, every shot danger lies, a mishit shot can quickly end in disaster...even hitting the green can result in an impossibly tricky putt. Overall the margin for error each and every shot is very very small. Thus it is a challenge to see over the 72 holes who is consistently the best golfer.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    HYUFD said:

    So that means some men are dating multiple women
    Gosh does that happen!
This discussion has been closed.