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Support for Brexit drops to new low with YouGov – politicalbetting.com
Support for Brexit drops to new low with YouGov – politicalbetting.com
The latest YouGov Brexit tracker is now out and shows that support is down to just 35% – the lowest level yet since the pollster started tracking this after the 2016 Referendum.
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This confirms my belief that Starmer - whatever he says now - will come under intense pressure to tack much closer to the EU if and when he makes Number 10. He will yield to this pressure
I note the rightwing radio (Kevin O Sullivan, Hartley Brewer, Jeremy Kyle, Nick Ferrari) crew seem to all want Boris back now...
I wonder if the biggest driver towards "Brexit not working" opinion is the fact that prominent politicians - Brexiteers - have been saying as much, loudly, around the NIP. If the main architects of the deal are complaining it's a bad deal you kind of expect the public to catch on.
Or the public is generally sick and tired of the divisiveness in politics / in general with the EU (who on the whole we need good relations with)
Hence why if the ERG and their love in with Frosty get their way and choose a candidate based on their “purist” Brexit agenda, they will be doomed at the next election
I am slightly hopeful of an unwind to 2016 when we didn't know what we wanted but we mainly, I think, thought that Norway EEA EFTA whatevs *was* Brexit, before that demented cow started giving it the BREXIT MEAN'S BREXIT red white n blue stuff. Question is who has the skill to arrange this without giving the game away. Answer doesn't look obvious.
Putin has finally given Dmitry Rogozin (head of Russian space program) the boot.
Form an orderly queue to the trampoline, to celebrate.....
if Brexit is still a word with currency, Brexit is not "done", therefore it has been a failure. Something like that, perhaps
Deaths are natural, especially deaths of the sick, infirm and old which is who Covid targetted.
There are fates worse than death. There are actions worse than death.
Covid restrictions like closing schools harmed the education of children, many of them will never get the opportunity to get that back.
I'm lucky my children were young. Lockdown measures greatly restricted their education, but they've got a chance to catch that up. I've been working hard with my girls, as have their school, to catch up on the disruption but many don't have that opportunity. Disrupted education could be affecting people's lives for the rest of their life, for decades to come. Some people will live with that for the next seventy or eighty years.
That is far worse than someone in their 80s or 90s reaching the end of their natural life, from natural causes, which is what Covid is.
If we'd allowed Covid to take its course and put £400bn into education etc instead of keeping the extremely old and vulnerable alive a little bit longer while closing schools, then the country would be far better off for it. Harsh but true.
Goodness knows how the kids in the primary school next door are managing in their lessons...
Though therein lies an incentive for the EU to encourage Scottish accession. Habitable climate, sufficiently above sea level later in the century, given they don't have Norway or Iceland, and Sweden and Finland still get mega heatwaves. Otherwise Ireland would be the only outpost.
Britain Trump strikes again.
London
Lab 55%
Con 26%
LD 11%
Grn 5%
Ref 1%
Rest of South
Con 35%
Lab 30%
LD 19%
Grn 8%
Ref 5%
Midlands and Wales
Lab 40%
Con 34%
LD 10%
Ref 6%
Grn 5%
PC 4%
North
Lab 52%
Con 24%
LD 10%
Grn 8%
Ref 5%
Scotland
SNP 45%
Lab 24%
Con 14%
LD 9%
Grn 4%
Ref 2%
(YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1733; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th July 2022)
FUEL DUTY, you idiots.
(At her launch, Penny suggested cutting VAT on petrol in half. Which does nothing for the hauliers).
Some, yes @BartholomewRoberts I am referring to you, will think this weak but I don't see it that way. Boris did get Brexit done, what he failed to achieve was to make it work. That is the job of his replacement.
Our press is UK obsessed and doesn't give a f8ck about Europe since we left except how easy it is to go on holiday.
You are utterly wrong on this, but I doubt I will convince you, or you will convince me.
I think that is the common sense and humane position too.
Fucking over children in order to help those who have already lived their lives, is not common sense, and it is not humane.
Negotiations can only work if you are prepared to see the talks fail if you don't get what you want.
If you aren't prepared to see negotiations fail, then you might as well just walk up to the other party and say "what do you want" and not even bother negotiating.
Truss is showing a good way of how to do that. Hold the olive branch of negotiations, but with a Plan B of unilateral solutions if negotiations fail.
PS I think Brexit does work. What doesn't work is the NI Protocol, but that was always supposed to be temporary and replaced anyway.
Starmer, if he is canny (really not sure he is) should go on the front foot. Say "there are clearly misgivings about the kind of Brexit we have, we are not rejoining but the single market is an option, I will ask the people blah blah"
More potently, I reckon the Brexit regret will prove a temporary window,: a window which will eventually close
Brexit WILL settle down and mentally bed in, and the idea of getting closer to the EU or submitting to the ECJ in any way, will become ludicrous.
So the Remainers don't have long to move. A few years
Not that it is going to be on the table, at least in England this GE, but very likely to be in the one after that.
I do wonder if we are in a chicken and egg situation. Is Brexit unpopular because the Tories are? Or are the Tories unpopular because of Brexit? Or possibly in a feedback loop where the Tories pander ever more to Brexit purists, who then drag the party further into obscurantism?
Righttoleave Wrongtoleave Don'tknow
Scotland 24 65 11 (-41)
London 25 65 10 (-40)
North 35 51 13 (-16)
Rest of South 40 50 10 (-10)
Midlands and Wales 39 47 13 (-8)
GB 35 53 11 (-18)
i. Leave the ECHR (YEs yes I know it's not part of the EU)
or
ii. Join the Euro.
Perhaps do both
People were promised we'd leave the EU and the economy and public services would get better.
They're getting visibly worse by the day.
That is more likely to be it.
SNP 53 seats (+5)
SLab 2 seats (+1)
SLD 2 seats (nc)
SCon 0 seats (-6)
(Baxter)
The Brexit wrong numbers are only going up.
The sick man of Europe will be begging for ever closer union, again.
Any sane Treasury, tasked with finding easy ways to help with CoL and inflation, would have picked up on fuel duty immediately - except that they’re all totally committed to Net Zero dogma, and they all get the train to work. Fuel duty barely affects any of them on a day-to-day basis.
Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, millions of people are trying to work out how to buy petrol and food this month.
I can see this from 3,500 miles away.
I don't see this being a decisive sea-change yet. Come back to me when Brexit wrong is at two-thirds.
"Brexit wrong" - what does that mean?
If I interpreted it as "Was the Brexit referendum a mistake" I'd say "Yes". If I interpreted it as "Do I want us to rejoin without knowing the terms" (rebate? Currency?) I'd say "hell no".
When even Starmer knows he cannot say Brexit was wrong otherwise he loses the redwall seats to the Tories and has zero chance of becoming PM, there is zero chance of the Tories saying Brexit was wrong.
Given 47% do not want to rejoin the EU with Redfield either and 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave no chance of that changing
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1543321577181380609?s=20&t=keB0NiY2sw9i0pDnfb4Bgg
The potatoes and onions have grown well and are now being eaten; there should be enough to last until at least the end of September. We’ve also got fifteen tomato plants that have all got their first fruit nearly ready, thirty pea plants that we’ve had a load of mange tout from and some peas nearly there, three kinds of courgette (two each of normal, yellow and “8-ball”), about a hundred spring onions, and ten runner beans. We’ve also got various salad leaves, a couple of cucumbers and a few kinds of squash/pumpkin that I didn’t bother getting pictures of.
I’d suggest MorrisDancing if anyone wants to reply to me to avoid repeating the photos!
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/14/house-adds-roadblock-to-bidens-quest-to-sell-u-s-fighter-jets-to-turkey-00045825
...It’s the latest dent in a potential sale of the Lockheed Martin-built jets to Ankara. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), one of the four top lawmakers who must sign off on weapons sales to foreign nations, is refusing to back the transfer.
The dual hurdles make it nearly impossible for Biden to follow through on selling the fighters to the NATO ally as lawmakers express exasperation over Ankara’s purchase of advanced Russian equipment, violating the territory of its neighbours and its drift toward autocracy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan...
This is not going to make Erdogan happy, after he was persuaded to back down on NATO membership for Sweden and Finland.
President Biden while standing in East Jerusalem: “…the background of my family is Irish American. And we have a long history not fundamentally unlike the Palestinian people, with Great Britain and their attitude toward Irish Catholics over the years for 400 years.”
https://twitter.com/margbrennan/status/1547902247513645061
you just have to bugger up the html
And if one party takes a maximalist position, while the other party says they're not prepared to see talks fail, then the party that isn't prepared to walk away will be screwed by the one that is.
Ultimately both sides taking equivalently maximalist positions is what is needed to allow win/wins to be maximised and losses to be minimised and shared equitably as both parties decide what they really care about and compromise on things that aren't their priority.
Which is why Frost's negotiations were such a success and Robbins' ones were such a failure.
Rejoin is a red herring, some kind of norway or switzerland deal is not.
https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1547893337989922816
Sanctions are making some very weird things possible. Saudi is buying Russian crude at a huge discount to BURN FOR POWER and then exporting their own to Europe.
Though in this case, that's not perverse in terms of their intended effect.
EEA yes.
Its clear, surely, that Yougov and others have problems reaching brexit voters. On the eve of the 2016 vote the polls showed a comfortable remain victory, right? Remain then lost, and in England they lost handily.
Starmer is where he is because he knows this, as all serious politicians know it.
If he reaches power he will shift towards a much more pro-EU stance, willingly or not
Erdogan might have bought a pup...
Tugs' says Labour have been planning on concreting over the nation to resolve the housing crisis.
Mordaunt on now. She is very tongue tied and vague. Bored now.
Badenoch on housing. She is way the most articulate save for Rishi Rich. She's very good, shame she is a rabid right wing nutcase. She's boring me now too.
Liz Truss on housing she wants more high rise, but more practical than the rest.
Rishy Rich wants brown field and urban density and modular building. He is head and shoulders more impressive in presentation than ALL the rest. Very critical of how crap Labour housing policy has been in the last decade, housing will be much better under Richy Rich.
So for fluency it has to be Richy, Kemi, Fizzy, Penny and Tom TIT. Penny very disappointing.
Estimates of the price elasticity of demand for petrol are around 1.1 - that is that the doubling of the price results in only 10% drop in demand. Nothing else, apart from perhaps cigarettes, is so price inelastic.
A far saner solution than Theresa May's batshit crazy solution of tying us to a legal system we'd have no say in writing, no politicians elected to, no unilateral way out of and in the extremely unlikely event we ever tore it up we'd need a no deal Brexit jump into the unknown to get out of.
Thank goodness we got the NI Protocol instead. Infinitely superior.
(apologies, MD.)
But nice try at attempting to create a faux-gaffe.