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The papers are in no doubt about the Tory winner – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Just the same as the Catholic Church and other abuses throughout time, yes.

    Anyone who puts protecting themselves, or their interest, ahead of protecting the vulnerable is scum.

    What its not is a "woke" or "unwoke" issue.
    Today is one of those days where I despair at PB generally, but the fact that I vehemently disagree with Barty on the Covid thread and agree with him here shows the value of this place. It’s nice to see people are nuanced.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Eagles, calm thyself lest thy pantaloons be besmirched with ecstasy.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Would like to get rid of Sue-Ellen and TiT today!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339

    The people would vote Tory if the leader was Penny, over Keir. They think Keir is stale and boring. They hate all the others.
    With Johnson gone, issues rather than the Leaders' personalities will become more important. That said, she is head and shoulders ahead as the strongest character available to the Conservatives.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    Failures to investigate child abuse cases properly clearly pre-date the grooming gangs. The police have never done their job effectively and have always considered the types of children and young people most likely to be abused - those in care and from dysfunctional families - of not being worth the bother. But if they were looking for excuses in Rochdale and elsewhere, they were handed them on a plate. That is utterly unforgiveable and Labour party councils were complicit. There's just no getting around it.

    None of the authorities in Rochdale - police very much included - had any excuse.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    I hope Badenoch overtakes Truss.
  • I am surprised to see that peolle think Liz doesn’t have charisma

    She certainly does, it’s just that it projects just the slightest tinge of insanity.

    Look at that pork speech above, she smiles in all the wrong places.
    Truss has been in the Cabinet for nearly a decade now, in various top jobs. Foreign Secretary, Justice Secretary and more.

    And yet all her critics have to say she's rubbish is not a swathe of scandals in all those roles, but that she gave one odd speech, nearly a decade ago, while DEFRA secretary.

    She's given Conference speeches every year since then, she's held big jobs since then, but nothing to object to other than pork markets and cheese. That is a disgrace.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078
    edited July 2022

    I am so excited.

    You just can’t hide it!
    You may be about to lose control,
    And that concerns me 🫢
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    "Delays or missed treatments" have been ongoing for as long as the NHS has existed. It always will, since demand is infinite. People only stop presenting demand when they die, but you want to prevent death from ever occurring.
    Could you please stop talking bollocks with your "you want to prevent death from ever occuring," crap?

    Seriously, man.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    EXC: @RichardVaughan1 had access to a focus group of working class voters in Wolverhampton last night

    They said Penny Mordaunt was the strongest candidate in the Tory leadership contest and the frontrunner to see off Labour


    https://twitter.com/ChaplainChloe/status/1547579212487225344

    The issue is that “I have a good feeling about her” is telling me that the audience is projecting onto a blank slate. That’s both an advantage and disadvantage, but it’s better than “god no Jesus no”.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,223

    No rush of money for Liz Truss after her "launch" event.

    1.89 Penny Mordaunt 53%
    4.3 Rishi Sunak 23%
    5.5 Liz Truss 18%
    21 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    70 Tom Tugendhat
    240 Dominic Raab
    300 Suella Braverman
    Shortly before 3pm:-
    1.84 Penny Mordaunt 54%
    4.2 Rishi Sunak 24%
    5.4 Liz Truss 19%
    23 Kemi Badenoch 4%
    60 Tom Tugendhat
    140 Suella Braverman
    260 Dominic Raab
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    Mr. Eagles, calm thyself lest thy pantaloons be besmirched with ecstasy.

    It's shorts weather.

    Another benefit of work from home, I don't have to wear suits, shirts, and ties during the week.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited July 2022
    OnboardG1 said:

    Today is one of those days where I despair at PB generally, but the fact that I vehemently disagree with Barty on the Covid thread and agree with him here shows the value of this place. It’s nice to see people are nuanced.
    Au contraire, his post is utter fluff.

    Nobody on here is going to argue that child abuse is not a bad thing, not even BartyBobbins who manages to find some quite bizarre ideological positions.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Where is it?
  • novanova Posts: 755
    Pulpstar said:

    Smarkets forecast 99 /79 /56 /45 /43 /35

    Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss/Tugendhat/Badenoch/Bravermann

    Par scores - Mordaunt basically wins with the members with a Richi Runoff if everything pans out like this

    Obviously it won't be as clear cut as this, but surely there's an argument that the votes go from right to left (and vice versa) - so there are nearly twice as many right votes from Badenoch and Bravermann which could mostly go to Truss? (or perhaps Badenoch).

    There aren't enough Tugendhat to send both of Sunak and Mordaunt over the line, so it could be very close between the final three.
  • KB 49
    SB 27
    PM 83
    RS 101
    LT 64
    TT 32
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522

    Just the same as the Catholic Church and other abuses throughout time, yes.

    Anyone who puts protecting themselves, or their interest, ahead of protecting the vulnerable is scum.

    What its not is a "woke" or "unwoke" issue.
    Certainly, the Catholic Church prioritised its reputation over and above child protection.

  • EXC: @RichardVaughan1 had access to a focus group of working class voters in Wolverhampton last night

    They said Penny Mordaunt was the strongest candidate in the Tory leadership contest and the frontrunner to see off Labour


    https://twitter.com/ChaplainChloe/status/1547579212487225344

    I already posted this.

    She's clearly the best candidate, the Tories should pick her.

    But right she is a total unknown, basically their version of Starmer. They could though do a lot worse.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Of passing interest to the leadership campaign is one of tonight by elections. The patriotic sounding Thetford Boudicca is in Liz Truss' seat SW Norfolk, not far from my stomping grounds.... unfortunately for Liz, Thetford is the most heavily Labour friendly part of her seat and this is a tight marginal Con defence very likely to drop (its been Lab recently). It wont reflect on the seat as a whole but losing it might be used by opponents 'Cons losing ground in her own seat' etc
  • Could you please stop talking bollocks with your "you want to prevent death from ever occuring," crap?

    Seriously, man.
    QTWAIN.

    Not until you stop being so hysterical about Covid.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    What an unsatisfactory result.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Braverman out, other five can go forward.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Rishi and Penny almost certain to go through then.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    I'm not sure how to read that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    So that's TT done as well as Braverman. Can Kemi leapfrog Truss in the next round?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited July 2022

    Just the same as the Catholic Church and other abuses throughout time, yes.

    Anyone who puts protecting themselves, or their interest, ahead of protecting the vulnerable is scum.

    What its not is a "woke" or "unwoke" issue.
    Surely all these perpetrators were protected by a belief system.

    In one case, the belief system created by the upper echelons of the catholic church, and in another by the upper echelons of a political class who wholly characterised ethnic communities as blameless and vulnerable victims of racism.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078
    edited July 2022
    The right votes overall has dropped considerably?! 🤗
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031

    What an unsatisfactory result.

    Braverman out is great
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    Sandpit said:

    Braverman out, other five can go forward.

    woohoo!
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    The right votes has dropped considerably?!

    Obvious tactical voting is obvious.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    OnboardG1 said:

    The issue is that “I have a good feeling about her” is telling me that the audience is projecting onto a blank slate. That’s both an advantage and disadvantage, but it’s better than “god no Jesus no”.

    When you get to the last 2 and the choice is God not him versus a blank slate - a blank slate on which your hopes can be pinned (see Leave for another example) is going to get you more votes than actually having a policy or 3.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Good result for Mordaunt again, still very much in the race.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    Compared to yesterday:
    Badenoch +9
    Braverman -5
    Mordaunt +16
    Sunak +13
    Truss +14
    Tugendhat -5 (will he now drop out?)

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1547582451978932225
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031

    Rishi and Penny almost certain to go through then.

    Hope so
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    Mr. Foremain, I must respectfully disagree with your view on the Rotherham and similar cases.

    One major example stands out, from many, as an example why. One girl who was raped was clever enough to retain the clothing, which contained DNA evidence. She handed it over. The police managed to lose it, and nothing happened.

    This isn't laziness. And it isn't incompetence (I could buy that for a one-off but in Rotherham alone over a thousand girls and a hundred boys were raped over a period exceeding a decade). This was an approach that it was better to have white working class girls and boys raped by men who were Pakistani/Muslim than to investigate, because being culturally sensitive mattered more than stopping the industrial scale rape of children.

    If they had not been working class, and if they had not been white, this would not have been tolerated..

    Do you have any evidence for that ?
    As far as I recall, there were significant numbers of Asian victims.

    Conversely there's much evidence of police failure to investigate over the years, irrespective of ethnicity.

    You might have a point regarding class (though public school cases over the years suggest it's only half a point).
  • Penny vs Sunak surely in the final two. And then Penny will walk it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Good result for Truss.

    Truss +8
    Badenoch +6
    Mordaunt +4
    Sunak +2
    Braverman -3
    Tugendhat -13

    Tugendhat has to jump on that.
  • MISTY said:

    Surely all these perpetrators were protected by a belief system.

    In one case, the belief system created by the upper echelons of the catholic church, and in another by the upper echelons of a political class who wholly characterised ethnic communities as blameless and vulnerable victims of racism.
    And what do either of those beliefs have to do with people who wanted sexual equality?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Badenoch - 49
    Braverman - 27
    Mordaunt - 83
    Sunak - 101
    Truss - 64
    Tugendhat - 32


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1547582085283471360?cxt=HHwWgICj4aDtjvoqAAAA

    So much for "I'm the only candidate who can stop the small boats crossing the channel because I'm the only one who knows we need to leave the ECHR. The British people won't forgive us unless we address this issue."

    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1547516107518509057
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    MrEd said:

    Actually, what you write is not just bollocks but is also very dangerous.

    Let's take the case of the Holocaust. There have been cases of people denying it took place. Under your argument, we shouldn't bother calling people up on the issue and just turn a blind eye because they won't change their behaviour and so what does it matter. But if you tolerate such behaviour, you make it - if not acceptable - then less socially damaging and, over time, it eventually becomes socially acceptable to raise the question (which, funnily enough when it comes to the Holocaust, is what is happening now with certain parts of the hard Left).

    You are essentially saying the same thing here. The reason why so many abusers got away with their crimes in the first place was because such behaviour was not seen as wicked enough and therefore it was fine to turn a blind eye. People had suspicions but didn't mention it because they thought "it's not my place to challenge" - or indeed, "what difference would it make?"

    People are, by nature, conformist. They want to fit in and not make waves. If the zeitgeist is - encouraged by people like Nigel who won't see the problem - "let's not mention it because we don't want to upset community relations", then that is how people will behave, which is exactly what happened in these places - and which led to many more girls being abused than should have happened.

    This. It's actually an excellent case study in why wokeism is dangerous - if you try too hard not to offend anyone, you run the risk of allowing more harm to occur than if you'd just behaved normally about everything in the first place.

    Any ideology becomes dangerous when taken to extreme, and "wokeism" (in current usage, at least by the right) is just a convenient word for the left's excesses on this issue.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,568
    Surely Tugendhat withdraws.

    Badenoch has another punt at absorbing the Braverman vote?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    Pulpstar said:

    Good result for Truss.

    Truss +8
    Badenoch +6
    Mordaunt +4
    Sunak +2
    Braverman -3
    Tugendhat -13

    Tugendhat has to jump on that.

    Sky saying Truss is in trouble
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297

    The right votes overall has dropped considerably?! 🤗

    How do you work that out
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    IF Braverman to Badenoch THEN Truss is fucked
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,309
    Mordaunt - biggest gain. Momentum carries on.

    Rishi - relief to scrape 100 but still struggling.

    Liz - LOL

    Suella and TT - oh dear.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    I'm not sure how to read that.

    Badenoch will overtake Truss in the next round and looks like a final two of Truss and Sunak.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Oh dear - Truss + Badenoch + Braverman has gone up a net 18.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Christopher Hope📝
    @christopherhope
    ·
    24m
    NEW The final two candidates in the Conservative leadership race will not be known until **Wednesday evening** next week, I understand.
    Members of the 1922 committee have decided to have three ballots on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week after #PMQs. #ToryLeadershipRace
  • tlg86 said:

    So that's TT done as well as Braverman. Can Kemi leapfrog Truss in the next round?

    QTWAIN.

    The gap between them expanded it didn't fall.

    Truss could overtake Mordaunt though.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    eek said:

    When you get to the last 2 and the choice is God not him versus a blank slate - a blank slate on which your hopes can be pinned (see Leave for another example) is going to get you more votes than actually having a policy or 3.
    Yeah. Then she needs to face the heat of the electorate and we find out if she’s Iron Lady or Butter Babe.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    Mordaunt and Truss the big gainers. Will Sunak make the final two?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297

    KB 49
    SB 27
    PM 83
    RS 101
    LT 64
    TT 32

    Sunak edging closer to the magic 120 figure.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Woke has lost all meaning, it’s become a generic label for the right to complain about left-wing things they don’t like.

    The objection to Woke is that it is NOT diverse. It is oriented around how clever and enlightened People Like Us are, and how stupid and primitive People Not Like Us are.

    Such a culture is not intellectually sharp. It is smug and self-centred.

    Woke is only diverse in that there are some people who look differently and some people who have sex differently -- but other than they all think the same. It is not a proper accounting of any kind of genuine diversity.

    I don't care much what people do in bed (provided it is consensual), but Woke seems to have @Leon 's gleeful obsession with what people are doing in bed.

    It is the intellectual homogeneity -– and even more dangerously, the authoritarian social pressure to conform to the homogeneity -- that is worrying.

    And, finally Woke seems not to be a catalyst for any real change.

    University Vice Chancellors, Start-up CEOs, Chairs of NGOs are no doubt all very Woke -- but they are not reducing their vast salaries. Nor are they devising practical ways in which (say) the Faculty looks like as diverse as Manchester City FC.

    The top of my organisation is dominated by Woke. At the bottom, nothing has changed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950
    People might want to take an interest in the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse.
    It might cure you of the idea it was limited to any location, class or religion
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339

    Penny vs Sunak surely in the final two. And then Penny will walk it.

    The hatchets will be out for her this weekend.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395

    KB 49
    SB 27
    PM 83
    RS 101
    LT 64
    TT 32

    Bombenhat
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,436
    edited July 2022

    IF Braverman to Badenoch THEN Truss is fucked

    More likely Braverman and Badenoch go to Truss to get her ahead of Mordaunt.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    NEW THREAD

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited July 2022
    This looks like the electorate are totally befuddled.

    However,
    - Tugendhat is dead meat
    - no real breakout for Badenoch or Truss

    Rishi v Mordaunt, then.
    Unless the right can get their shit together.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    This thread has been eliminated

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078
    edited July 2022

    Sky saying Truss is in trouble
    Surely if Truss gets close to Penny, with Badenoch votes to come in last round, she’ll fly by Penny?

    I think the problem for Truss is two fold, firstly longer it goes on right votes are going to the top two, and secondly, Truss is plain rubbish.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,223

    What an unsatisfactory result.

    What were you expecting?
  • Beth Rigby really isn't very articulate
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    And what do either of those beliefs have to do with people who wanted sexual equality?
    In the latter case they were the same people...! they didn't want sexual equality, they wanted sexual equality for political active middle class well educated voters like Bev.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    QTWAIN.

    Not until you stop being so hysterical about Covid.
    Hysterical.

    "We do not need any restrictions" is hysterical?
    "We can keep going like this as long as we resource the health service appropriately" is hysterical?
    "No need to panic; it's peaking and starting to fall" is hysterical?

    Okay.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    Do you have any evidence for that ?
    As far as I recall, there were significant numbers of Asian victims.

    Conversely there's much evidence of police failure to investigate over the years, irrespective of ethnicity.

    You might have a point regarding class (though public school cases over the years suggest it's only half a point).
    The Asian victims (at least in Rotherham from memory) were disproportionately Sikhs and targeted for the same reason. There were very few victims from the perpetrators' backgrounds.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    What were you expecting?
    Logically I was expecting more coherence from the right, ie more of a breakout for Truss or Badenoch.

    Emotionally I was hoping for Rishi to stall and some modest momentum behind Tugendhat.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    nico679 said:

    I have zero sympathy for her . Nothing worse than a born again Leaver who now feels the need to overcompensate. Which means another 2 years of EU arguments and divisiveness.
    I think this is true. The public will care about cost of living, not more stupid arguments with the EU.

    Plus, she can’t front up the role of PM. Would be divisive.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I think TT needs to pull out now otherwise there’s a danger Truss could pick up all Bravermans votes and end up overtaking Mordaunt giving her campaign new momentum .

    Truss must be stopped.
  • MISTY said:

    In the latter case they were the same people...! they didn't want sexual equality, they wanted sexual equality for political active middle class well educated voters like Bev.
    Bollocks were they.

    That's like saying 9/11 was a terrorist attack committed by Christians, just because they were religious.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,078
    nico679 said:

    I think TT needs to pull out now otherwise there’s a danger Truss could pick up all Bravermans votes and end up overtaking Mordaunt giving her campaign new momentum .

    Truss must be stopped.

    Truss Must be Stopped. I’ll get the T-shirts printed.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    MISTY said:

    Notice I have not once mentioned or singled out any community or race in any of my comments. I even credited the muslim man who finally said enough was enough and started these prosecutions when many others wouldn't.

    Bev wanted to pretend modern Britain is some kind of emancipated nirvana for women.

    I merely pointed out that it isn't, citing an example.
    You talk a lot of cr*p
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779

    The hostility toward air filtration systems seems - on the face of it - a triumph of libertarian ideology over common sense.

    Having said that, it would be good to understand the numbers.

    The problem is that so much money is poorly spent in government that there is a high degree of scepticism on new plans

    I also suspect that retrofitting worthwhile filtration is not as easy and cheap as people say. But it should certainly be part of the design brief going forward
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779

    "Delays or missed treatments" have been ongoing for as long as the NHS has existed. It always will, since demand is infinite. People only stop presenting demand when they die, but you want to prevent death from ever occurring.
    Demand is not infinite. It just exceeds current capacity
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    Rape has not been caused by emancipation or "woke" of the 70s and 80s.

    Its been caused by criminals committing crime, and people turning a blind eye to criminal behaviour.
    Rape hasn't been caused by people calling themselves a man or a woman.

    Its been caused by criminals committing crime, and people turning a blind eye to criminal behaviour.
This discussion has been closed.