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The battle to find Starmer’s succesor as LOTO? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    With the terrible twosome backing Truss from right outside No10, it looks too much like BBC Truss is Boris's preferred candidate. The optics are awful for her on that...

    Raab has endorsed Sunak.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    Schapps out supporting Rishi
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly

    Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter

    https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1546756685502578689

    Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.

    But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
    We have become a joke. When I travel internationally for work people either laugh at us or shake their heads sadly at whatever the latest nonsense development is. My only response is that I am Scottish and perhaps one day we will escape the asylum.
    You must travel to some very strange places. That is not my experience at all.
    Flew to Romania late April and was in a car with Romanian and German employees of my client. A lot of talk about our "clown King" and our stupid Brexit deal which we now want to scrap.

    The only other example of similar I can think of was being in America late summer of 1997. "Oh you're British? We're so sorry about Princess Diana" followed by endless guff about her whilst I thought "meh"
    I think what is happening here is people being cautious reflectors when discussing politics with someone from another country.

    If I met a pro Trump American, my language about US politics would be very different to if I met a normal American. Not 180 degrees different, but significantly so, and I feel that is the correct and polite way to talk to a stranger in a casual conversation about politics.

    Similarly Brits who really dislike our politics, will get that view echoed when abroad, and Brits who dislike EU politics and think Boris a great statesman will get a very different response.

    In reality most foreigners don't care much about UK politics either way.
    Yes, that is much closer to the truth. 99.73% of foreign people don't give a fuck about British politics, or indeed know anything about it. And why should they? 78% of BRITS don't really give a fuck, or know much

    Most conversations about Britain, abroad (outside our nearest neighbours and the Anglosphere), relate to English football, because they DO know a lot about that; the rest is a mild sense that Britain is an important wealthy country, probably a good place, maybe cold, errr

    I've not heard Brexit mentioned once, since about 2017, not even in western Europe - with one exception: a border guard in Switzerland who told some queueing and whingeing Brits, stuck in the Rest of the World line: "Well, you voted for this" - and everyone chuckled, ruefully or otherwise. That's it

    Most western people don't care much about foreign politics, except American politics as the US is still the sole western superpower and who it elects as President affects us all
    The ONLY time I can remember getting into a passionate debate abroad, about British politics - certainly in, say, the last decade - was in Spain when some Spaniards really wanted to talk about Scottish independence. Why? Because they were deeply concerned about Catalan independence, and they wanted to work out how it might pan out, the virtues of granting a vote, how to stop Catalan indy, etc

    That speaks a truth. Foreigners don't give a fuck about British politics EXCEPT where it might impinge them. If you meet europhile financial-political types in Europe yes they might be antiBrexit - because they hate Brexit. Indians might talk about British immigration policy. I imagine Ukrainians will be pro-Boris, etc

    Americans talk about British royalty, because they yearn for it
    You happened to meet some Spanish Falangists in favour of bashing secessionist grannies? Like calls out to like.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited July 2022
    MrEd said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just been out. Why has Rishi surged in the betting?

    Because he's going to win Mike.
    Not if it goes to the membership
    Opinium has him narrowly ahead of Truss due to a landslide amongst Tory member remainers. Which is a bit weird when you consider Sunak was a leaver and Truss a remainer.
    But Truss has the zeal of the converted.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    What's the record for the shortest leadership bid....Mr Green has to be in the running.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread - it's actually raining here.

    What do you expect if you live near Manchester?
    I shall go outside and do a worm dance.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,156
    edited July 2022

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    You are so compassionate. It warms my heart.
    Compassionate in my politics is one thing I've never claimed to be.

    If people are redundant, they should be entitled to redundancy payments, not continued employment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I think we'll be hearing from the Jav backing Rishi shortly.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I think we'll be hearing from the Jav backing Rishi shortly.

    The grown ups are falling behind Rishi.

    I hope many people here got him at the 250/1.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Rishi looking good to dominate the first ballot on the current trend.

    It may come down to who can consolidate the stop Rishi vote. Truss? She’s also the candidate Rishi would probably want to face in the second round so if he has spare votes that could prove crucial.

    Penny needs to get some more endorsements in today I think. I could see her starting to struggle.

    Yeah it's the start of the Penny Squeeze. Rishi is starting to hoover up anyone who is sane.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,767
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Imagine the #FBPE gloating if it had been the £

    BREAKING: The Euro has fallen to parity with the US Dollar

    Why? We aren't exactly doing well either. Looks like the strength of the dollar more than it is the respective weaknesses of both Pound and Euro.
    I am slightly surprised that there is not more angst and upset in the Bundesbank about this. They built the strongest and largest economy in Europe with a strong deutschmark driving down inflation and forcing firms to invest constantly to improve productivity. A weak currency must be anathema to them.
    On the other hand, quite the competitive advantage to exporters, particularly with a recession looming.
    On the other other hand, a weak currency is exactly what you don't want in an energy crisis, when the whole world - especially Germany - will be out to buy gas and oil, priced in US dollars
    That's very true.

    Worth noting, though, that the two countries that spend the most on importing energy (even before the current crisis) are Italy and Japan.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited July 2022

    Just been out. Why has Rishi surged in the betting?

    Rumour Shapps will drop out and endorse Rishi. ETA which he now has; also Raab endorsement.
  • @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    Okay and put them on welfare and increase the bill for that. Hot haven’t thought this through.

    Austerity is and was a disastrous policy. The most economically stupid policy in 100 years.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    BBC reporting Raab backing Sunak

    that should reduce his odds a bit
    And Gavin WIlliamson also!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,602

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread, but do other posters have a view on this proposed tower in Manchester:


    You will not be surprised to learn that Amir Khan is involved.

    To my surprise, despite trying, I don't hate it. (I hope I'm not unduly influenced in this by the fact that Sam Wheeler, the Momentum largely anti-development councillor for this part of the city centre, does hate it.) I think the higher the building, the more reflective it needs to be, particularly in a city where sunshine isn't a given, and it will at least be shiny.

    https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/developer-of-manchesters-19m-gold-tower-eyes-more-sites/

    Boring, I'm afraid - to my mind. Also, 96% of planned buildings look better in the render than in reality, so that will get worse
    As I've said passim, one thing I'd love to do is get architect's drawings of a building - complete with children holding balloons, small trees lining the streets etc - and compare with real pictures of the building from the same angle.
    As I have said passim is getting added to the list.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread, but do other posters have a view on this proposed tower in Manchester:


    You will not be surprised to learn that Amir Khan is involved.

    To my surprise, despite trying, I don't hate it. (I hope I'm not unduly influenced in this by the fact that Sam Wheeler, the Momentum largely anti-development councillor for this part of the city centre, does hate it.) I think the higher the building, the more reflective it needs to be, particularly in a city where sunshine isn't a given, and it will at least be shiny.

    https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/developer-of-manchesters-19m-gold-tower-eyes-more-sites/

    Boring, I'm afraid - to my mind. Also, 96% of planned buildings look better in the render than in reality, so that will get worse
    That is quite deliberate, I think.
    And quite a few renders I've seen are from perspectives impossible in real life unless you're airborne. Good architects are rare.
    That's not offensive and quite like the part octagon shaping. And it's not that tall really.

    Where is it? Are we looking N / NE towards the St. Peter's Square there? Somewhere west of Oxford Road?
    It is up near Piccadilly Station, between it and Great Ancoats St. Up there, anything new built would be an improvement and bring the place on a bit. Ancoats itself has had a lot of redevelopment and it looks better for it
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Every organisation builds up "non-jobs". The tough task is working out which are really non-jobs, which of those are filled by people who are talented and you don't want to lose from your organisation / could fill another role.

    Its why you always end up with some big winners from recessions. They take the opportunity to totally re-evaluate their business and come out of it much stronger organisation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Leon said:

    Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday

    I can't find anywhere forecast to be more than 34 degrees on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sunak - Cummings has had nothing to do with campaign and will have nothing to do with his government - hasn’t spoken to him since he left Downing Street.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Conservative Home Tory leader playoff has Truss, Mordaunt, Badenoch and Sunak beating Hunt with 62%, 67% 66% and 50% respectively.

    Tugendhat also beats Hunt 42% to 23%


    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/12/next-tory-leader-run-offs-twelfth-jeremy-hunt/

    I feel a bit sorry for Jeremy Hunt. He’s nowhere near the bogeyman the membership seem to think he is, but his time appears to have gone.
    Supporting fox hunting and appointing Esther McVey as deputy PM were bizarre
    Supporting fox hunting used to be Conservative mainstream. Should he have lied about it to please people that know fuck all about the countryside and think little foixywoxies are ever so cuddly?
    Supporting Section 28 used to be the Conservative mainstream too.

    Thankfully though, people move on from what used to be the mainstream of the past.
    A little old lady round the corner feeds the foxes in her garden.

    Not long ago, she was distraught - according to her, some evil people must have thrown a dog over the fence, where it tore her cat to bits and then somehow got the dog back....
    foxes attacking cats is a extremely rare thing.
    Seen it in our cul de sac a couple of times when the foxes come out of the wood. The males are surprisingly large. The cats try to hide under cars if they get caught on the ground and are usually ok if the car has a low enough base. But the foxes really go for them.
    Perhaps this a difference between urban and rural foxes. The urban foxes where we are (and there are a lot of them) and the local cats generally ignore each other completely, even when they are within a few metres of each other.
    We are completely urban here - West London. The foxes show up on the street, and the cats vanish.
    West London cats are pathetic. South London cats clearly made of tougher stuff, or perhaps our foxes are weaker for Malthusian reasons.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state

    Badenoch says she “will not enter a tax bidding war” where “my tax cuts are bigger than yours”

    It would be “to make promises you cannot keep”, which she says would be a “betrayal”

    Tax cuts only achievable by rolling back the state

    She calls for cuts in international aid, for schools to focus on core teaching not support staff and “superfluous” activities, to stop funding certain university courses, to free up police resources from dealing with “hurt feelings online”


    Her comments on teaching and police are just populist rhetoric, and zero to do with cutting spending.
  • Hunt will back Sunak and get a cabinet position IMHO, back at Health?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Telegraph reporting that Boris held a Cobra meeting in Number 10 over the impending heatwave. 40C is still possible next weekend/Monday

    I can't find anywhere forecast to be more than 34 degrees on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday.
    Plan for the worst, hope for the best...

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    You are so compassionate. It warms my heart.
    Compassionate in my politics is one thing I've never claimed to be.

    If people are redundant, they should be entitled to redundancy payments, not continued employment.
    As you clearly don't need to work, it probably never worries you that some bureaucrat doesn't wrongly decide you might be surplus to requirement? Either that or because you have never really worked in the real world that you don't realise that sometimes people are axed in error?
  • Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread, but do other posters have a view on this proposed tower in Manchester:


    You will not be surprised to learn that Amir Khan is involved.

    To my surprise, despite trying, I don't hate it. (I hope I'm not unduly influenced in this by the fact that Sam Wheeler, the Momentum largely anti-development councillor for this part of the city centre, does hate it.) I think the higher the building, the more reflective it needs to be, particularly in a city where sunshine isn't a given, and it will at least be shiny.

    https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/developer-of-manchesters-19m-gold-tower-eyes-more-sites/

    Boring, I'm afraid - to my mind. Also, 96% of planned buildings look better in the render than in reality, so that will get worse
    As I've said passim, one thing I'd love to do is get architect's drawings of a building - complete with children holding balloons, small trees lining the streets etc - and compare with real pictures of the building from the same angle.
    As I have said passim is getting added to the list.

    "is getting added to the list" is already on it
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183

    Oh Matthew Goodwin is back, the most useless academic in history.

    What people actually care about is their bills. What are the Tories going to do about it

    He is the most annoying, droning, one-trick pony for sure. But you have to hand it to him: he has somehow fashioned a career out of saying exactly the same thing over and over again and getting someone to pay him for it.
    Actually we shouldn’t call him an academic anymore. He’s more a lobbyist.

    Dishonest to the core, he spent his last two weeks deleting old Tweets.

    He only posts polls he likes and only posts research that supports what he already thinks to be true. He is genuinely the most useless person on Twitter today. Why he has any reputation I do not know.

    But as you said, he is a genius. Because people pay him for this crap
    "He only posts polls he likes and only posts research that supports what he already thinks to be true."
    - this seems to describe a significant proportion of academics in all fields and the majority in the social sciences.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2022
    Why did the likes of Rabb and Shapps even start a campaign?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Tax cuts are not credible now - Sunak
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Every organisation builds up "non-jobs". The tough task is working out which are really non-jobs, which of those are filled by people who are talented and you don't want to lose from your organisation / could fill another role.

    Its why you always end up with some big winners from recessions. They take the opportunity to totally re-evaluate their business and come out of it much stronger organisation.

    A rather more nuanced post than Barty's.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread, but do other posters have a view on this proposed tower in Manchester:


    You will not be surprised to learn that Amir Khan is involved.

    To my surprise, despite trying, I don't hate it. (I hope I'm not unduly influenced in this by the fact that Sam Wheeler, the Momentum largely anti-development councillor for this part of the city centre, does hate it.) I think the higher the building, the more reflective it needs to be, particularly in a city where sunshine isn't a given, and it will at least be shiny.

    https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/developer-of-manchesters-19m-gold-tower-eyes-more-sites/

    Boring, I'm afraid - to my mind. Also, 96% of planned buildings look better in the render than in reality, so that will get worse
    That is quite deliberate, I think.
    And quite a few renders I've seen are from perspectives impossible in real life unless you're airborne. Good architects are rare.
    That's not offensive and quite like the part octagon shaping. And it's not that tall really.

    Where is it? Are we looking N / NE towards the St. Peter's Square there? Somewhere west of Oxford Road?
    It is up near Piccadilly Station, between it and Great Ancoats St. Up there, anything new built would be an improvement and bring the place on a bit. Ancoats itself has had a lot of redevelopment and it looks better for it
    Ancoats was a total dump when I lived there 20 years ago. And I was in Longsight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Why did the likes of Rabb and Shapps even start a campaign?

    Raab didn't
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Pulpstar said:

    Rishi looking good to dominate the first ballot on the current trend.

    It may come down to who can consolidate the stop Rishi vote. Truss? She’s also the candidate Rishi would probably want to face in the second round so if he has spare votes that could prove crucial.

    Penny needs to get some more endorsements in today I think. I could see her starting to struggle.

    Yeah it's the start of the Penny Squeeze. Rishi is starting to hoover up anyone who is sane.
    And the worry has to be that Liz will start to hoover up anyone who isn’t…

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    In almost any public funding organisation, there is always bloat when it comes to staffing.

    I know it is a minor example but my housemate works for the IT department at the University of Oxford. A large part of her role is teaching researchers how to manage their data and other such jobs.

    At present, these courses (which are only open to members of staff and students) are free to attend.

    The powers that be have now decided that they will have to become chargeable.

    So money will be moved from one part of the university accounts to another part of the university accounts

    And to do this, more admin staff in the Finance department will have to be employed and more admin time in individual departments will be used to process the payment requisitions.

    None of this actually helps researchers. Indeed attendance at the courses is likely to drop as a result.

    So new processes and systems are being introduced, more staff costs incurred for no improvement is actual delivery.

    The university generates no new money out of this. And it will actually increase staff costs.

    This is typical public sector thinking. And I am pretty confident similar bloat exists in every other public organisation in our nation.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Hunt will back Sunak and get a cabinet position IMHO, back at Health?

    Very possibly
  • @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    Okay and put them on welfare and increase the bill for that. Hot haven’t thought this through.

    Austerity is and was a disastrous policy. The most economically stupid policy in 100 years.
    I have thought this through. If people end up on welfare then that should be as they transition from one job to another, and not a permanent way of life. If they transition from an unproductive job to a productive one, then that is good for the economy, good for society, even if there is a bit of welfare inbetween. That is precisely what welfare should be there for, as a safety net.

    Gender isn't the only thing that can transition.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,613
    eek said:

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    Those jobs all exist for a reason - so you need to bin the reason why the job exists.

    And that opens up a different question - what should the Government do and why?
    I currently work on destroying jobs. Literally.

    My work consists of building completely automated flows in a bank, with manual interventions at few defined points. This will eliminate all the copy and pasta between systems and whole teams of people who shout at other banks on the phone about how they can't add.

    Five minutes in the NHS (for example) tells you that vast increases in productivity and job satisfaction could be created by proper processes and systems. Instead, it appears to be a system that spends much of it energy (and money) on stopping the medics doing their jobs.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    HYUFD said:

    Why did the likes of Rabb and Shapps even start a campaign?

    Raab didn't
    My apologises...some many candidates hard to keep up...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Badenoch resists immediate tax cutting.
    Calls for a radical shrinkage of the state instead.
    Which is at least coherent.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited July 2022

    OT ;) Flip-flopping favourites for next PM. Rishi is back in front.

    3.2 Rishi Sunak
    3.35 Penny Mordaunt
    5 Liz Truss
    12.5 Tom Tugendhat
    15 Kemi Badenoch
    27 Jeremy Hunt
    60 Sajid Javid
    75 Nadhim Zahawi
    75 Priti Patel
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Dominic Raab

    2.94 Rishi Sunak
    3.35 Penny Mordaunt
    5.4 Liz Truss
    15 Tom Tugendhat
    16.5 Kemi Badenoch
    40 Nadhim Zahawi
    46 Jeremy Hunt
    85 Sajid Javid
    90 Dominic Raab
    100 Priti Patel
    100 Suella Braverman

    2.68 Rishi Sunak implied probability 37%
    3.65 Penny Mordaunt 27%
    4.9 Liz Truss 20%
    15.5 Tom Tugendhat 6.5%
    20 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    55 Jeremy Hunt
    70 Nadhim Zahawi
    100 Keir Starmer
    100 Sajid Javid
    100 Suella Braverman
    110 Priti Patel
    130 Dominic Raab
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    BBC News now playing part of Badenoch’s launch:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    Why did the likes of Rabb and Shapps even start a campaign?

    Several reasons.

    They looked at the others and thought, well.
    They listened to friends.
    They are delusional.
    They wanted to show that they had a following which would justify a decent job. Unfortunately for those dropping out today they have actually shown the opposite.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Rishi looking good to dominate the first ballot on the current trend.

    It may come down to who can consolidate the stop Rishi vote. Truss? She’s also the candidate Rishi would probably want to face in the second round so if he has spare votes that could prove crucial.

    Penny needs to get some more endorsements in today I think. I could see her starting to struggle.

    Yeah it's the start of the Penny Squeeze. Rishi is starting to hoover up anyone who is sane.
    And the worry has to be that Liz will start to hoover up anyone who isn’t…

    That's my working betting theory.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183

    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread, but do other posters have a view on this proposed tower in Manchester:


    You will not be surprised to learn that Amir Khan is involved.

    To my surprise, despite trying, I don't hate it. (I hope I'm not unduly influenced in this by the fact that Sam Wheeler, the Momentum largely anti-development councillor for this part of the city centre, does hate it.) I think the higher the building, the more reflective it needs to be, particularly in a city where sunshine isn't a given, and it will at least be shiny.

    https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/developer-of-manchesters-19m-gold-tower-eyes-more-sites/

    Boring, I'm afraid - to my mind. Also, 96% of planned buildings look better in the render than in reality, so that will get worse
    That is quite deliberate, I think.
    And quite a few renders I've seen are from perspectives impossible in real life unless you're airborne. Good architects are rare.
    That's not offensive and quite like the part octagon shaping. And it's not that tall really.

    Where is it? Are we looking N / NE towards the St. Peter's Square there? Somewhere west of Oxford Road?
    It is up near Piccadilly Station, between it and Great Ancoats St. Up there, anything new built would be an improvement and bring the place on a bit. Ancoats itself has had a lot of redevelopment and it looks better for it
    It's the colour of it which is dividing opinion.
    As I said, while I expected to hate it, I don't. And it's better than what's there at the moment (though there are new buildings in Manchester which are better than what was there before but still represent a regrettable missed opportunity, and in this area of town I would expect something else to come forward if this does not).
    For me, it passes the test - but I can see why it's controversial.
  • PaulSimonPaulSimon Posts: 34

    Hunt will back Sunak and get a cabinet position IMHO, back at Health?

    That's the nightmare scenario for me. As Health Secretary, Hunt was an appalling nanny statist. Much like Hancock, his thought process was that if we wrap the plebs in cotton wool, tell them what's good for them and stop them ever having any fun then they're less likely to get sick, and that will save the NHS loads of cash.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    HYUFD said:

    Why did the likes of Rabb and Shapps even start a campaign?

    Raab didn't
    Just a polite question

    You have been very anti Rishi and should he win the contest will you endorse him ?
  • Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    Williamson has declared for Rishi, and JRM/Dorries have backed Truss?

    There's clearly only one winner from that. Badenoch.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056

    Why did the likes of Rabb and Shapps even start a campaign?

    Partly delusion, partly to seek favour when they concede to the winner.

    Not that I am convinced being a candidate really helps secure a place in the new regime. It didn't help Hunt or a number of others last time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    "Germany faces ‘nightmare’ winter as Russia shuts down Nord Stream 1" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-faces-nightmare-winter-as-russia-shuts-down-nord-stream-1-8vnzc950j
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    If only.

    Keep it away from the membership I say.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Means nobody drives much about 30 of course

    Drakeford strikes again..

    Speed limits in built-up areas look set to be reduced from 30mph to 20mph in Wales from next year

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-62020427

    Very wise move. Most of the streets around me are now 20mph and you get used to it.

    Nobody needs to be flying around at 30mph in towns.
    20 mph speed limit means few people drive much above 30mph of course!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    Williamson has always backed him, he won't be PM this week. Percentage wise he still has fewer MPs backing him than Johnson did in 2019 or May did in 2016 or even Portillo did in 2001 at this stage.

    However he is likely to have enough to at least get to the members vote and probably top the MPs poll
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    In almost any public funding organisation, there is always bloat when it comes to staffing.

    I know it is a minor example but my housemate works for the IT department at the University of Oxford. A large part of her role is teaching researchers how to manage their data and other such jobs.

    At present, these courses (which are only open to members of staff and students) are free to attend.

    The powers that be have now decided that they will have to become chargeable.

    So money will be moved from one part of the university accounts to another part of the university accounts

    And to do this, more admin staff in the Finance department will have to be employed and more admin time in individual departments will be used to process the payment requisitions.

    None of this actually helps researchers. Indeed attendance at the courses is likely to drop as a result.

    So new processes and systems are being introduced, more staff costs incurred for no improvement is actual delivery.

    The university generates no new money out of this. And it will actually increase staff costs.

    This is typical public sector thinking. And I am pretty confident similar bloat exists in every other public organisation in our nation.
    All true except this:

    "None of this actually helps researchers. Indeed attendance at the courses is likely to drop as a result."

    What will next happen is that the course will be made compulsory.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,167
    edited July 2022
    Sean_F said:

    Lord Adonis appears to think not changing political leadership is a sign of strength. Glossing over French Presidential terms (how could you remove a dud?) and Germany has now swapped Merkel for Scholz, neither of whom history may judge kindly

    Most British heads of govt in last half century have lasted less than 4 years & we’re about to embark on the 11th. In France & Germany not a single head of govt has lasted less than 4 yrs. Spot the country in deep democratic crisis. More in my newsletter

    https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1546756685502578689

    Oh, for goodness sake. You can argue that there have been important policy failures in France or Germany.

    But we're a complete basketcase in terms of developed nations. We'll soon be moving on to our fourth PM in six years, and all three of those we've had have been absolute duds, with their terms ending under a shadow, in failure and farce. We are not, at present, a stable country with a political system that appears capable of providing a steady government developing long term, predictable policy of any kind.
    Austria is on to its ninth Chancellor in six years.

    I don't think that France and Germany have had any leaders of stature since Mitterand and Kohl.
    I think that a quarter of century of time passing has tended to wear away the rough edges of Kohl and Mitterrand (of which there were certainly several) and you're looking back with fondness on what feels like a better time when you were younger (as we all were) and possibilities were endless.

    In reality, the French and German systems (including M & K but also since then) have produced pretty stable governments with leaders capable of developing and pursuing policy over a period of time. They've not always been good governments - you can argue about the policy records of governments and the personal qualities of individuals - but their systems have largely produced functional governments capable of thinking ahead and pursuing a course of action for more than about five minutes.

    I know on here we love the drama of constant change and it presents betting opportunities. But it really has been badly dysfunctional since 2015. And I agree Austria has been too.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: John Major fires a broadside at the cabinet, many of whom are now running for Tory leader (Suank, Truss, Zahawi...) for failing to confront the PM.

    "They were silent when they should've spoken out, and only spoke out when their silence became self-damaging."

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1546798017319157765

    Doesn't he ever shut up?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,138
    edited July 2022

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    In almost any public funding organisation, there is always bloat when it comes to staffing.

    I know it is a minor example but my housemate works for the IT department at the University of Oxford. A large part of her role is teaching researchers how to manage their data and other such jobs.

    At present, these courses (which are only open to members of staff and students) are free to attend.

    The powers that be have now decided that they will have to become chargeable.

    So money will be moved from one part of the university accounts to another part of the university accounts

    And to do this, more admin staff in the Finance department will have to be employed and more admin time in individual departments will be used to process the payment requisitions.

    None of this actually helps researchers. Indeed attendance at the courses is likely to drop as a result.

    So new processes and systems are being introduced, more staff costs incurred for no improvement is actual delivery.

    The university generates no new money out of this. And it will actually increase staff costs.

    This is typical public sector thinking. And I am pretty confident similar bloat exists in every other public organisation in our nation.
    Concerning the public sector as a whole, this stems from thinking introduced by the Conservatives, as I well recall from the early days ... not exactly helping improve efficiency is it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2022
    Foxy said:

    Why did the likes of Rabb and Shapps even start a campaign?

    Partly delusion, partly to seek favour when they concede to the winner.

    Not that I am convinced being a candidate really helps secure a place in the new regime. It didn't help Hunt or a number of others last time.
    I get the idea of being in the running to then later doing the horse trading to say well if I give you the votes of my 30-40-50 supporters I want a prime job in your cabinet, but the likes of Shapps, he isn't an unknown face in the Tory party having been a minister for most of past 12 years (and we all know he is pretty shit at his job) and well he could fill his supporters in the Lib Dem taxi.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    tlg86 said:

    Too many tweets...

    https://order-order.com/2022/07/12/brendan-clarke-smith-threatens-legal-action-over-photo-smears/

    Guido understands newly-appointed education minister Brendan Clarke-Smith is preparing to post a raft of legal letters to high-profile celebrity lefties who spread false claims about a photo of the MP that appeared over the weekend. The photo, which showed Clarke-Smith posing in a thong, was taken over ten years ago during a waxing fundraiser for the British Heart Foundation and Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire Air Ambulance. It made the rounds recently when the Twitterati baselessly declared it showed Clarke-Smith mocking NHS staff during the height of the pandemic…

    https://twitter.com/sueperkins/status/1546539941999542272

    Sue Perkins 💙
    @sueperkins
    1/ I messed up & want to offer a correction. I retweeted a post about
    @Bren4Bassetlaw
    without fact-checking. The picture of him was not taken during the pandemic, nor was he mocking NHS staff. He was fund-raising. I’d like to offer him my sincerest apologies for any upset caused.

    He was wearing a thong during an - excuse me - "waxing fundraiser"?

    How fabulous! :*
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Germany faces ‘nightmare’ winter as Russia shuts down Nord Stream 1" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-faces-nightmare-winter-as-russia-shuts-down-nord-stream-1-8vnzc950j

    How long until Germany opens NordStream 2?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,602

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread, but do other posters have a view on this proposed tower in Manchester:


    You will not be surprised to learn that Amir Khan is involved.

    To my surprise, despite trying, I don't hate it. (I hope I'm not unduly influenced in this by the fact that Sam Wheeler, the Momentum largely anti-development councillor for this part of the city centre, does hate it.) I think the higher the building, the more reflective it needs to be, particularly in a city where sunshine isn't a given, and it will at least be shiny.

    https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/developer-of-manchesters-19m-gold-tower-eyes-more-sites/

    Boring, I'm afraid - to my mind. Also, 96% of planned buildings look better in the render than in reality, so that will get worse
    As I've said passim, one thing I'd love to do is get architect's drawings of a building - complete with children holding balloons, small trees lining the streets etc - and compare with real pictures of the building from the same angle.
    As I have said passim is getting added to the list.

    "is getting added to the list" is already on it
    Fair enough.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    dixiedean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread, but do other posters have a view on this proposed tower in Manchester:


    You will not be surprised to learn that Amir Khan is involved.

    To my surprise, despite trying, I don't hate it. (I hope I'm not unduly influenced in this by the fact that Sam Wheeler, the Momentum largely anti-development councillor for this part of the city centre, does hate it.) I think the higher the building, the more reflective it needs to be, particularly in a city where sunshine isn't a given, and it will at least be shiny.

    https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/developer-of-manchesters-19m-gold-tower-eyes-more-sites/

    Boring, I'm afraid - to my mind. Also, 96% of planned buildings look better in the render than in reality, so that will get worse
    That is quite deliberate, I think.
    And quite a few renders I've seen are from perspectives impossible in real life unless you're airborne. Good architects are rare.
    That's not offensive and quite like the part octagon shaping. And it's not that tall really.

    Where is it? Are we looking N / NE towards the St. Peter's Square there? Somewhere west of Oxford Road?
    It is up near Piccadilly Station, between it and Great Ancoats St. Up there, anything new built would be an improvement and bring the place on a bit. Ancoats itself has had a lot of redevelopment and it looks better for it
    Ancoats was a total dump when I lived there 20 years ago. And I was in Longsight.
    I did some short contract work there a few years back and was very surprised at the changes. These days it is, apparently, becoming trendy. The areas near the Metro line are sought after for both housing and business.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Shapps backers:

    Robert Courts
    George Eustice
    Trudy Harrison
    Graham Stuart
    Dr. James Davies
    Paul Bristow
    Sheryll Murray
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    If only.

    Keep it away from the membership I say.

    Who cares about democracy when you don't like the electorate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Pulpstar said:

    Rishi looking good to dominate the first ballot on the current trend.

    It may come down to who can consolidate the stop Rishi vote. Truss? She’s also the candidate Rishi would probably want to face in the second round so if he has spare votes that could prove crucial.

    Penny needs to get some more endorsements in today I think. I could see her starting to struggle.

    Yeah it's the start of the Penny Squeeze. Rishi is starting to hoover up anyone who is sane.
    And the worry has to be that Liz will start to hoover up anyone who isn’t…

    Truss still 4th of MPs declared behind Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    What because he has Gavin's backing? lol. Seriously, I hope he is not. He always was a lightweight and the fact he did not have the balls or the decency and probity to resign ages ago tells me he is unfit for the office> he will be an improvement on The Clown, but not much, and he won't beat Labour
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    Surely that's the plan of all sane MPs - get this sorted out ASAP so Bozo is gone ASAP..
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Kemi is an incredibly compelling speaker. I understand what she says isn’t going to be everyone’s cup of tea - but she is going to go far.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    BBC News now playing part of Badenoch’s launch:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews

    She would work well with Rishi. Chancellor? The Saj needs to get on board quickly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Kemi: "My government will discard the priorities of Twitter and deliver on the people's priorities."
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085
    dixiedean said:

    Badenoch resists immediate tax cutting.
    Calls for a radical shrinkage of the state instead.
    Which is at least coherent.

    Then you look at her proposals of what to cut and realise quite how deluded/dishonest she is.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Why did the likes of Rabb and Shapps even start a campaign?

    Perhaps they were more deluded than the others?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    HYUFD said:

    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    Williamson has always backed him, he won't be PM this week. Percentage wise he still has fewer MPs backing him than Johnson did in 2019 or May did in 2016 or even Portillo did in 2001 at this stage.

    However he is likely to have enough to at least get to the members vote and probably top the MPs poll
    And his negatives are all pretty much out there, one assumes, and old news.
    He always ought to have been nailed on favourite, on the grounds that you can't win if you aren't one of the two.
    And there hasn't been a time when that hasn't looked certain.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    Just been out. Why has Rishi surged in the betting?

    Rumour Shapps will drop out and endorse Rishi. ETA which he now has; also Raab endorsement.
    Shapps had very little support. Surprised his endorsement has moved the market so much.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,613

    Every organisation builds up "non-jobs". The tough task is working out which are really non-jobs, which of those are filled by people who are talented and you don't want to lose from your organisation / could fill another role.

    Its why you always end up with some big winners from recessions. They take the opportunity to totally re-evaluate their business and come out of it much stronger organisation.

    A rather more nuanced post than Barty's.
    The creative destruction thing is why private enterprise actually works - eventually all organisations cruft up with pointless bullshit.

    Read the Mitrokhin Archive - it is story of how the Soviet intelligence services started up (ha!) as a few hundred people in a flat structure. They could get shit done. By the Seventies, they were 100,000s of people in tower block offices, holding meetings about who should budget for the meeting to decide if there should be a meeting to decide if the KGB resident in (Vienna, I think) should try and ask some criminals how much they would charge to beat up Rudolph Nureyev.
  • Still waiting for a better PM than Blair. He left office in 2007…
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    The Queen’s most senior advisors have been working closely with Downing Street officials to ensure “her Majesty is not put in a difficult position” over any honours that outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson may attempt to bestow before leaving office, i understands.

    It is understood the Queen’s private secretary Sir Edward Young has been in regular contact with Cabinet Secretary Simon Case since Mr Johnson resigned last Thursday and has been assured the UK’s top civil servant will vet any recommendations deemed unsuitable before passing them on to the Palace.


    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/palace-relies-on-top-civil-servant-to-temper-boris-johnsons-resignation-honours-list-1736380?

    I assume we have t look forward to Lady Dorries of Braindead and Lord Rees-Mogg of Twat-on-the-Wold?
    And here in Mid Wales.
    Mind you, that's normal.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,183
    PaulSimon said:

    Hunt will back Sunak and get a cabinet position IMHO, back at Health?

    That's the nightmare scenario for me. As Health Secretary, Hunt was an appalling nanny statist. Much like Hancock, his thought process was that if we wrap the plebs in cotton wool, tell them what's good for them and stop them ever having any fun then they're less likely to get sick, and that will save the NHS loads of cash.
    As the great Mark E Smith said, 99% of non-smokers die.

    Keep people alive and they will just end up dying later and more expensively.

    I suspect there is some finessing to be done to this point.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Kemi is an incredibly compelling speaker. I understand what she says isn’t going to be everyone’s cup of tea - but she is going to go far.

    She'll be Con leader/PM within the next decade for sure.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Kemi: "My government will discard the priorities of Twitter and deliver on the people's priorities."

    Oh no, she thinks she knows "the people's priorities". Sounds very like Johnson.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Kemi: "My government will discard the priorities of Twitter and deliver on the people's priorities."

    Kemi: "Every quango leader should be sackable by a democratic minister."
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited July 2022

    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    Williamson has declared for Rishi, and JRM/Dorries have backed Truss?

    There's clearly only one winner from that. Badenoch.
    Who does Rishi want as the opponent in a membership vote? Truss, presumably?

    I can definitely see some vote 'lending' here if he can't be anointed without a run off.

    Does he go for such dirty tricks or just try and win straight? The choice of tactic might tell us a lot about him.
  • Mordaunt goes for Sunak IMHO and she ends up Chancellor or something like that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    In almost any public funding organisation, there is always bloat when it comes to staffing.

    I know it is a minor example but my housemate works for the IT department at the University of Oxford. A large part of her role is teaching researchers how to manage their data and other such jobs.

    At present, these courses (which are only open to members of staff and students) are free to attend.

    The powers that be have now decided that they will have to become chargeable...

    This is typical public sector thinking. And I am pretty confident similar bloat exists in every other public organisation in our nation.
    Is not that because they're trying to squeeze budgets, though ?

    I know it's a minor example, but this sort of thing is likely to be replicated elsewhere as ministers try to implements spending cuts...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    Even Gavin Williamson has declared for Rishi

    The way this is going he could be PM next week

    Perfect!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Carnyx said:

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    In almost any public funding organisation, there is always bloat when it comes to staffing.

    I know it is a minor example but my housemate works for the IT department at the University of Oxford. A large part of her role is teaching researchers how to manage their data and other such jobs.

    At present, these courses (which are only open to members of staff and students) are free to attend.

    The powers that be have now decided that they will have to become chargeable.

    So money will be moved from one part of the university accounts to another part of the university accounts

    And to do this, more admin staff in the Finance department will have to be employed and more admin time in individual departments will be used to process the payment requisitions.

    None of this actually helps researchers. Indeed attendance at the courses is likely to drop as a result.

    So new processes and systems are being introduced, more staff costs incurred for no improvement is actual delivery.

    The university generates no new money out of this. And it will actually increase staff costs.

    This is typical public sector thinking. And I am pretty confident similar bloat exists in every other public organisation in our nation.
    Concerning the public sector as a whole, this stems from thinking introduced by the Conservatives, as I well recall from the early days ... not exactly helping improve efficiency is it?
    I know it comes from the idea of treating public sector activity as a business but if you don't have a proper business mentality running the shop, you end up with bloat.

    Moving money around different departments just costs money. It doesn't generate it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    edited July 2022

    @singharj
    Badenoch now saying politicians have “for too long being telling you: you can have your cake and eat it”

    She tries to distance herself from unfunded tax cuts and spending rises by suggesting she’ll slim down the state


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1546799488047644672

    There is no more to slim unless we start sacking people. How is that going to help?
    Start sacking people in useless jobs. There's plenty of those about.

    The tax base is at the highest its been in decades and spending went up not down during so-called "austerity". There's plenty to slim.
    In almost any public funding organisation, there is always bloat when it comes to staffing.

    I know it is a minor example but my housemate works for the IT department at the University of Oxford. A large part of her role is teaching researchers how to manage their data and other such jobs.

    At present, these courses (which are only open to members of staff and students) are free to attend.

    The powers that be have now decided that they will have to become chargeable.

    So money will be moved from one part of the university accounts to another part of the university accounts

    And to do this, more admin staff in the Finance department will have to be employed and more admin time in individual departments will be used to process the payment requisitions.

    None of this actually helps researchers. Indeed attendance at the courses is likely to drop as a result.

    So new processes and systems are being introduced, more staff costs incurred for no improvement is actual delivery.

    The university generates no new money out of this. And it will actually increase staff costs.

    This is typical public sector thinking. And I am pretty confident similar bloat exists in every other public organisation in our nation.
    You forget that researchers also find external courses that better suit their needs, thereby a net outflow from the organisation.

    That isn't so much a critique of public sector employers so much as the internal markets forced on them by neoliberalism over recent decades.

    I am reminded of a proposed CIP of our theatres directorate to reduce the numbers of scrub nurses on a team. Saved them a few bob, but didn't do much for productivity, though that cost fell on a different directorate.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Kemi is an incredibly compelling speaker. I understand what she says isn’t going to be everyone’s cup of tea - but she is going to go far.


    Does Bandenoch even have enough endorsements to make it to the second round?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Rishi looking good to dominate the first ballot on the current trend.

    It may come down to who can consolidate the stop Rishi vote. Truss? She’s also the candidate Rishi would probably want to face in the second round so if he has spare votes that could prove crucial.

    Penny needs to get some more endorsements in today I think. I could see her starting to struggle.

    Yeah it's the start of the Penny Squeeze. Rishi is starting to hoover up anyone who is sane.
    And the worry has to be that Liz will start to hoover up anyone who isn’t…

    Truss still 4th of MPs declared behind Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugendhat

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/11/next-tory-leader-whos-backing-whom-our-working-list/
    Are we still waiting to see if Patel will stand?
  • Still waiting for a better PM than Blair. He left office in 2007…

    We've had 2 better PM's than Blair already since then. Cameron and Boris.

    But if you're wanting a better Labour PM, you might need to wait until Labour are popular again. Perhaps Starmer's successor might do it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Mordaunt goes for Sunak IMHO and she ends up Chancellor or something like that

    She won't, she has already launched, already has more than enough MPs to get nominated unlike Shapps and will likely be runner up to Sunak in the ballot tomorrow.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Pulpstar said:

    I think we'll be hearing from the Jav backing Rishi shortly.

    The grown ups are falling behind Rishi.

    I hope many people here got him at the 250/1.
    I agree with Mr Ed, Truss beats Rishi in member vote.

    Excuse me a second at the thought of that 🤮

    As it goes into the member vote there is so much the back truss stop Rishi team can attack Rishi with.

    At least it doesn’t look like Truss can be coronated next week, will need the member vote to get it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,613

    Andy_JS said:

    "Germany faces ‘nightmare’ winter as Russia shuts down Nord Stream 1" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-faces-nightmare-winter-as-russia-shuts-down-nord-stream-1-8vnzc950j

    How long until Germany opens NordStream 2?
    Well, the sanctions that the US has imposed means that any German entities starting up Nord Stream 2 would be breaking US sanctions. Good luck trying to do finance on this planet while avoiding the US sanction regime.

    This will, I predict, become a source of friction. When Germany decides the Ukraine War is over as far as they are concerned, they will want to lift sanctions. The US will, almost certainly, want to keep sanctions - certainly far longer than Germany...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    Alex Burghart, MP for Brentwood and Ongar, has endorsed Kemi Badenoch.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    DavidL said:

    BBC News now playing part of Badenoch’s launch:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews

    She would work well with Rishi. Chancellor? The Saj needs to get on board quickly.
    Thats a sensible idea. We end up with the sane and the anti-Boris rebels backing Sunak, Truss hoovering up the sane Borislickers, Braverman the insane Borislickers, and a battle between Badenoch and Tugendhat for the "it wasn't me" vote.

    Hunt? What a loser.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Off thread, but do other posters have a view on this proposed tower in Manchester:


    You will not be surprised to learn that Amir Khan is involved.

    To my surprise, despite trying, I don't hate it. (I hope I'm not unduly influenced in this by the fact that Sam Wheeler, the Momentum largely anti-development councillor for this part of the city centre, does hate it.) I think the higher the building, the more reflective it needs to be, particularly in a city where sunshine isn't a given, and it will at least be shiny.

    https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/developer-of-manchesters-19m-gold-tower-eyes-more-sites/

    Boring, I'm afraid - to my mind. Also, 96% of planned buildings look better in the render than in reality, so that will get worse
    That is quite deliberate, I think.
    And quite a few renders I've seen are from perspectives impossible in real life unless you're airborne. Good architects are rare.
    That's not offensive and quite like the part octagon shaping. And it's not that tall really.

    Where is it? Are we looking N / NE towards the St. Peter's Square there? Somewhere west of Oxford Road?
    It is up near Piccadilly Station, between it and Great Ancoats St. Up there, anything new built would be an improvement and bring the place on a bit. Ancoats itself has had a lot of redevelopment and it looks better for it
    Ancoats was a total dump when I lived there 20 years ago. And I was in Longsight.
    I did some short contract work there a few years back and was very surprised at the changes. These days it is, apparently, becoming trendy. The areas near the Metro line are sought after for both housing and business.
    Yep. And surprised that eldest reports Fallowfield to be the new cheap, dumpy student bit.
  • Still waiting for a better PM than Blair. He left office in 2007…

    We've had 2 better PM's than Blair already since then. Cameron and Boris.

    But if you're wanting a better Labour PM, you might need to wait until Labour are popular again. Perhaps Starmer's successor might do it?
    ROFL Cameron and Johnson don’t have a candle on Blair. He did actual levelling up and actual positive change.

    Johnson and Cameron divided the country and oversaw the largest stagnation in society in 100 years.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Kemi: "My government will discard the priorities of Twitter and deliver on the people's priorities."

    Kemi: "Every quango leader should be sackable by a democratic minister."
    Hmmm. Arms length bodies to be placed in the pocket?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,602
    Student Grant Shapps looks to have backed Rishi the Fish in a bid to stop Penny Mordauners and Her Double Entendres replacing the Fat Slug as PM.

    One can only wonder what Sir Graham Brady Old Lady makes of it all.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Alex Burghart, MP for Brentwood and Ongar, has endorsed Kemi Badenoch.

    Thought he would. Was the last on the multi-resignation letter who hadn't backed her yet
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089

    Still waiting for a better PM than Blair. He left office in 2007…

    I despised Blair at the time. Now I look back on it as a halcyon period of a hard working PM, on top of the detail, delivering his vision for the country (right or wrong) who was, extraordinarily, a "pretty straight sort of guy" (by comparison with those who followed).
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