politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the fi
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twitter.com/macshimidh/status/512635615805194241
Oh dear ...0 -
OTT with knobs on.Peter_the_Punter said:OldKingCole said:Totally O/T but thee Yorkshire Cricket Captain seems to be being done for racial abuse of an opponent. Apparently he called said opponent a "Kolpack".
No other abusive words appear to have been used. Is that really "racist" abuse?
I see that the "victim" is from SA.
Perhaps he should just have called him a winker.
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http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/former-merseyside-council-leader-marie-7795001#.VBsB7lsEMMQ.twitter
Not something to comment on, for obvious reasons.0 -
Haven't watched the video but this is seriously odd
Captured British journalist presents tv style programme from Isis HQ
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/18/John-Cantlie-Lend-Me-Your-Ears0 -
I think he needs to be a little more than 'pretty confident' given that nothing that I can find out about this particular company gives any indication that they have any understanding of Scottish politics. Or indeed any politics outside of local stuff in Canada. Clearly someone trying to raise their profile. Can't blame them for trying - but you need to have a real insight into the politics of another country before you can comment with any confidence.williamglenn said:http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/18/scotland_referendum_canadian_team_sees_yes_win_amid_large_voter_turnout.html?app=noRedirect
"A Canadian team of voter-contact experts working with Scotland’s Yes team is forecasting that Scots will vote by as much as 54-46 in favour of independence when the final vote is tallied early on Friday morning.
“I believe they’re going to win,” said Mike O’Neill of the Canadian voter-targeting firm First Contact, which has been doing data-modelling work with two academics, one of them Canadian, to profile likely Yes and No support in Thursday’s referendum.
“I feel pretty confident,” O’Neill said."0 -
Oh, please, Mr. Watcher, the defence of the UK is conditional upon our European allies dropping iron bombs. Is that it? Never mind how many bombs could the Russian ships soak up? How many planes are there to drop the bombs and how many would survive the attempt? The odds when it comes to iron bomb or even Paveway style technology must be with the Kirov (about 200 SAM's capable of engaging such attackers).TheWatcher said:
Carrier wing in the Channel would be taking on the air forces of 5 or 6 Nato countries. Once the Russian planes are gone, how many iron bombs or Paveway do you think the Kuznetsov and Kirov could soak up? (We'd be at total war by then, so it's a moot point)HurstLlama said:
Outside an actual shooting-war being in place, no of course I don't. But if it had what could we have done about it? The RN surface fleet is really a bit thin when it comes to anti-surface work and is not looking that capable at ASW. For the latter there is nothing wrong with the kit and nothing wrong with the people but just not enough of either.TheWatcher said:
The Admiral Kuznetsov is knackered - it can't go anywhere without an escort tug in case in breaks down.
Do you seriously think that the Russians would have attacked a Royal Navy vessel in the Channel?
As for the Kuzentsov, I agree is it a floating piece of crap. I remember seeing a Russian made video of it a few years ago. It is a heap of junk and regarded as a punishment posting by the Sov sailors. I doubt it could operate a efficient air-wing under any circumstances. However, I would not want to bet that its SSMs don't work and those 12 Granits could mess up the RNs day. Furthermore, the Kuznetsov does not sail alone a single Kirov class cruiser packs more anti-surface punch than the whole of the surface RN.
Lets be honest, unless their is a T boat or an Astute around the RN is not fit to go out and play with the big boys.
And of course that assumes NATO countries stand by the spirit of Article V and I for one am not in least convinced that they will do so. I still remember Belgium refusing to SELL us artillery ammunition for use in throwing the Iraqis out of Kuwait, and that was when we were a member of a full blown UN-sanctioned coalition.0 -
Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html0 -
Yeah, I don't know at that point - I presume we'll start getting polling indications from the pundits/reporters even if there isn't an actual exit poll and that will set the price.TGOHF said:
Then from 10-2 am ?Alistair said:Yes price is going to continue drifting till 10pm baring some siesmic news.
Panicky peaks and troughs ?0 -
We stepped through the looking glass and into Fantasy Land when you suggested that a Kirov and a carrier would attack a Type 45 in the English Channel.HurstLlama said:
Oh, please, Mr. Watcher, the defence of the UK is conditional upon our European allies dropping iron bombs. Is that it? Never mind how many bombs could the Russian ships soak up? How many planes are there to drop the bombs and how many would survive the attempt? The odds when it comes to iron bomb or even Paveway style technology must be with the Kirov (about 200 SAM's capable of engaging such attackers).TheWatcher said:
Carrier wing in the Channel would be taking on the air forces of 5 or 6 Nato countries. Once the Russian planes are gone, how many iron bombs or Paveway do you think the Kuznetsov and Kirov could soak up? (We'd be at total war by then, so it's a moot point)HurstLlama said:
Outside an actual shooting-war being in place, no of course I don't. But if it had what could we have done about it? The RN surface fleet is really a bit thin when it comes to anti-surface work and is not looking that capable at ASW. For the latter there is nothing wrong with the kit and nothing wrong with the people but just not enough of either.TheWatcher said:
The Admiral Kuznetsov is knackered - it can't go anywhere without an escort tug in case in breaks down.
Do you seriously think that the Russians would have attacked a Royal Navy vessel in the Channel?
As for the Kuzentsov, I agree is it a floating piece of crap. I remember seeing a Russian made video of it a few years ago. It is a heap of junk and regarded as a punishment posting by the Sov sailors. I doubt it could operate a efficient air-wing under any circumstances. However, I would not want to bet that its SSMs don't work and those 12 Granits could mess up the RNs day. Furthermore, the Kuznetsov does not sail alone a single Kirov class cruiser packs more anti-surface punch than the whole of the surface RN.
Lets be honest, unless their is a T boat or an Astute around the RN is not fit to go out and play with the big boys.
And of course that assumes NATO countries stand by the spirit of Article V and I for one am not in least convinced that they will do so. I still remember Belgium refusing to SELL us artillery ammunition for use in throwing the Iraqis out of Kuwait, and that was when we were a member of a full blown UN-sanctioned coalition.
How many ships do you think the RN would need to take on the Russians, and everyone else in your 'Alice in Wonderland' scenario? 100, 200+? Do we cut services, or increase taxes to pay for them?0 -
I think victim and perpetrator should both be called silly little children and dealt with accordingly.MattW said:
OTT with knobs on.Peter_the_Punter said:OldKingCole said:Totally O/T but thee Yorkshire Cricket Captain seems to be being done for racial abuse of an opponent. Apparently he called said opponent a "Kolpack".
No other abusive words appear to have been used. Is that really "racist" abuse?
I see that the "victim" is from SA.
Perhaps he should just have called him a winker.
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So, the treatment of Murray? Some pleasant chappie said he should have died in Dunblane. Now, I could behave like a complete moron and pretend that this is how all you British nationalists act and behave but that's beneath me and let's face it - a disgraceful insult to the slaughter of innocents which took place.
Is it going to be on the front page of the Mail? With claims of browshirts marching and intimidating people? No, it isn't. Wonder why?0 -
@hl
Sorry - busy dabbling with Betfair for the first time, and trying to make sure I get 6/1 not 1/6 :-).
Will return to Russian Navy later, maybe.
We could throw all those admirals at them with catapults, or give Margaret Hodge a Tamil Tigers stealth boat and tell her to avoid the Russian aircraft carrier under all circumstances.0 -
Bit more than that, and not just having admittedly unwanted supporters of Better Together marching through Edinburgh with the odd No Popery banner. Tom Devine (the historian) has been writing and talking about this - for instance this summarises a Times piece of his wich I can't get at (paywall).TGOHF said:
Rosie Cunningham made a big play to them that their state funded Faith Schools (papish madrassas) would be save in Indyland.elephant_man said:Which way is the Catholic vote moving? Interesting that SNP has appeared to have won them over to YES despite their Labour connections
http://www.christiantoday.com/article/scottish.independence.catholics.may.have.the.deciding.vote/40559.htm
PS. Though I don't subscribe to the theory that if the indyref margin is x votes, any group must be blamed for it if it has y votes where y is a bit larger than x did it for yes (or no). There are plenty of other groupings of that size. Railway enthusiasts, for all I know.0 -
Were they previously called Angus Reid ?oxfordsimon said:
I think he needs to be a little more than 'pretty confident' given that nothing that I can find out about this particular company gives any indication that they have any understanding of Scottish politics. Or indeed any politics outside of local stuff in Canada. Clearly someone trying to raise their profile. Can't blame them for trying - but you need to have a real insight into the politics of another country before you can comment with any confidence.williamglenn said:http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/18/scotland_referendum_canadian_team_sees_yes_win_amid_large_voter_turnout.html?app=noRedirect
"A Canadian team of voter-contact experts working with Scotland’s Yes team is forecasting that Scots will vote by as much as 54-46 in favour of independence when the final vote is tallied early on Friday morning.
“I believe they’re going to win,” said Mike O’Neill of the Canadian voter-targeting firm First Contact, which has been doing data-modelling work with two academics, one of them Canadian, to profile likely Yes and No support in Thursday’s referendum.
“I feel pretty confident,” O’Neill said."0 -
It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.0
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Revolt on the Right (@RevoltonRight)
18/09/2014 18:11
Farage launches Ukip's Heywood and Middleton campaign rochdaleonline.co.uk/news-features/…
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You're playing havoc with my emotions here, but I'll grasp any straws I can get.Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
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Thanks Easterross for explaining the logic.
I'm not sure it's without flaws, but if it is, Yes is home and hosed.
Indicators are that turnout is high - but the yes price is drifting.
The high turnout = good for yes doesn't seem to be universally accepted.
Think you will find the bulk of money gambled has been by people who are neither living nor voting in Scotland today!
So the biggest Bismark in PB history is on ? Pile in everyone..
What's a Bismark please? As a naval buff I'm intrigued, but can't spot the connection ...
It emanates form Channel 4 racing.Every Saturday Barry Dennis,venerable Essex bookie,famous for giving out free christmas puddings at Lingfield,would issue a Barry's Bismarck.This was his lay of the day,usually a favourite.Barry's strategy as a layer was based on Essex arithmetic.Keep laying the false 1st and 2nd favs. .It served him well.
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You're one of those who think Osborne should have cut by more? I wont tell Balls if you dont.surbiton said:
They did a far better job than Osborne.Neil said:Impressive GDP figures in Ireland today. Could be looking at GDP growth of 4.5% for the year. Budget deficit down to 3.5%. And after many extremely tough years probably a fiscally neutral budget - the end of austerity.
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Does that take account of postal voting, Roger?Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
If it does, it is strikingly low, if not, rather high.
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You realise that growth over the whole recovery is what matters, rather than just the last year right?surbiton said:
They did a far better job than Osborne.Neil said:Impressive GDP figures in Ireland today. Could be looking at GDP growth of 4.5% for the year. Budget deficit down to 3.5%. And after many extremely tough years probably a fiscally neutral budget - the end of austerity.
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Do you support 20% cuts in public sector pay?surbiton said:
They did a far better job than Osborne.Neil said:Impressive GDP figures in Ireland today. Could be looking at GDP growth of 4.5% for the year. Budget deficit down to 3.5%. And after many extremely tough years probably a fiscally neutral budget - the end of austerity.
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"I met up with Catalans decked out in red, yellow and blue flags. They had driven over 2,000 kilometres from Barcelona in a tiny Seat 600. The music blaring from their car, gave the foggy square between the Scottish parliament and the queen's palace at Holyrood the balmy atmosphere of Barcelona seafront.
There were also Bretons, Sardinians, and even a man calling for independence for the ancient English kingdom of Wessex."
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/if-no-side-wins-it-will-be-impossible-to-put-the-yes-genie-back-in-the-bottle-30598158.html#sthash.cysQaJlf.dpuf0 -
You've had the "vote before tea" (trans. Dinner in England - they had their dinner mid day) crowd, others will have their tea then come out to vote...Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
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Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.isam said:Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html
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Oh. Mr. Watcher, that is unfair. Maybe you should go back through the thread again and read what I have actually said. The Channel is neither here nor there. The RN's lack of surface combat capability has been my point and the fact that RAF and, as far as I can work out the QE class, have none either.TheWatcher said:
We stepped through the looking glass and into Fantasy Land when you suggested that a Kirov and a carrier would attack a Type 45 in the English Channel.
How many ships do you think the RN would need to take on the Russians, and everyone else in your 'Alice in Wonderland' scenario? 100, 200+? Do we cut services, or increase taxes to pay for them?
I am not proposing a fantasy solution just pointing out an issue, the RN is not actually capable of defending these islands, let alone their essential trades routes.0 -
If I had my time again I'd either be a walking stick seller or a hip replacer in Aberdeen.There's now a flood of YES voters who are surely going to win. Off for a champagne now that the union is sorted and intact0
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On average I think postal votes are 18.5% of the total...Peter_the_Punter said:
Does that take account of postal voting, Roger?Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
If it does, it is strikingly low, if not, rather high.
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''America's price for coming to our aid in WW2 was the British Empire was history. '' --- huh?
I do wonder how anyone makes money on betting here. The only think 'history' is common sense.0 -
Indicators are that turnout is high - but the yes price is drifting.volcanopete said:
Thanks Easterross for explaining the logic.
I'm not sure it's without flaws, but if it is, Yes is home and hosed.
The high turnout = good for yes doesn't seem to be universally accepted.
Think you will find the bulk of money gambled has been by people who are neither living nor voting in Scotland today!
So the biggest Bismark in PB history is on ? Pile in everyone..
What's a Bismark please? As a naval buff I'm intrigued, but can't spot the connection ...
It emanates form Channel 4 racing.Every Saturday Barry Dennis,venerable Essex bookie,famous for giving out free christmas puddings at Lingfield,would issue a Barry's Bismarck.This was his lay of the day,usually a favourite.Barry's strategy as a layer was based on Essex arithmetic.Keep laying the false 1st and 2nd favs. .It served him well.
Thanks! Today is proving very edicational.
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Your knee jerk reaction to any economic news is truly awesome to behold. It makes no matter what you say as long as it's a criticism of Osborne. It's like political Tourette 's.surbiton said:
They did a far better job than Osborne.Neil said:Impressive GDP figures in Ireland today. Could be looking at GDP growth of 4.5% for the year. Budget deficit down to 3.5%. And after many extremely tough years probably a fiscally neutral budget - the end of austerity.
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Re; the polls- it would not be a huge surprise if all the polls get it wrong since this is a unique poll. And it would not be a surprise if all the polls are wrong in the same way since they are all using the same tried and tested methodologies that are pretty accurate for party polling. But the voter turnout, the nature of the poll, the inclusion of new groups all are uncharted territory. Methinks this may all create an exciting night coupled with some excellent betting opportunities.
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Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.
They're only just getting started.0 -
They'll probably get more criticism for mentioning it than the people who let it happenperdix said:
Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.isam said:Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html
Maybe if no one mentions it, it will all go away and we can carry on like before0 -
Thanks Carlotta.CarlottaVance said:
On average I think postal votes are 18.5% of the total...Peter_the_Punter said:
Does that take account of postal voting, Roger?Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
If it does, it is strikingly low, if not, rather high.
If he's talking about 62% of those who have not committed to postal votes, that's about 76% of non-postal voters - high but not unfeasible. If it's 62% all in, it's low.
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Neil. Yes I mean NO! Been a long day0
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Historic day, as the R&A vote to accept Women members. The world is turning upside down.0
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I would doubt the polling agents at the voting stations would have details of the postal votes. They are collated centrally by the divisional returning officers. Mary Pitcaithly the Chief Returning Officer for Scotland said yesterday Postal Vote returns were already above 90% which equates to >700,000Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
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I have no doubt it will be less than Salmond wants (Independence) so he will whine incessantly throughout the whole exercise which will result in him being offered more than the government wants to give and that will likely have a cost to it. As it goes as pensions are one of the biggest headaches for Government. Having funding which is fully accounted for has no allure to it at all. There is no good news there for voters. I'm quite sure Salmond will be happy if London hangs on to that for the time being. That he can wrest control of the rest of the Welfare policy I suspect is more his aim and then he will be able to further wind up the English.MikeL said:
Agree it opens up wounds and creates scope for major rows.manofkent2014 said:
VAT is not within the gift of the British Government to devolve. It belongs to the EU and only they can change its terms. We don't even have full control over our tax policy these dayskle4 said:
That's even worse then, as England will be up in arms about what they think is being given, and the Scots will be up in arms about not getting as much as they think was promises, and indeed what English people are saying was promised.MikeL said:I think people are overstating this pledge by Cam/Mili/Clegg.
There is no proposal to devolve VAT, NI, Corporation Tax, CGT, Inheritance Tax.
They are only talking about Income Tax and here, Miliband is only offering the ability to vary it.
It's actually far, far more Mickey Mouse than people realise.
It's not going to cost England anything.
Putting aside that I don't think Salmond will just accept any old rubbish if he gets welfare and income tax devolved he gets the largest single part of the income revenue and the largest part of expenditure. The rest is then just a matter of time and patience.
You miss the point though. It doesn't matter what the nature of changes actually are it opens up old wounds over a gross democratic injustice that has been bubbling away in the background. Having it come to the surface just 8 months before a general election is just too good an open goal opportunity to miss!
But in terms of what Salmond gets I still think it will be less than you may think - eg if he gets welfare I bet he will not get the ability to change the state pension or retirement age. So immediately he actually doesn't get over 50% of the welfare budget.
But still that is not the main problem with what is on offer. It is the seemingly open ended continuation of that economic nonsense Barnett which means that London aside southern and eastern regions of England remain outrageously underfunded in order that north of the border they can have free prescriptions, free university education and presumably in future advantageous welfare settlements.
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How dare anyone campaign on addressing chronic failures in the protection of children? For God's sake, this is exactly the sort of thing democratic elections are for: to highlight injustice and correct it.perdix said:
Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.isam said:Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html
Yet some people seem more appalled at this than the original abuse. In case you'd forgotten, in Rotherham, that was 1400 child rape victims. Fourteen hundred. It could be similar in Rochadale.
Mind-boggling.0 -
PTP. No sorry. I'll get the final figure now it's gone quiet again......0
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The total number of postal votes at just under 800,000 represents around 18% of the total electorate.0
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Does anyone have a link to Andy JS spreadsheet of areas and his YES predictions?0
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78%!!!!. So quite high inc everything0
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I see Celtic are playing tonight. Might keep the turnout low in parts of Glasgow?0
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People can be arrested for far less offensive comments than that odious turd. Whoever he is, I hope he's brought to some justice.BlackDouglas said:So, the treatment of Murray? Some pleasant chappie said he should have died in Dunblane
Anyone who saw the BBC interview with Andy Murray will know how raw he remains about that awful day, so to come up with shit like that is below even the devil.0 -
Oh, that is high.Roger said:78%!!!!. So quite high inc everything
Looks like the final figure might be >85% which would be great for my Ladbrokes account!
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It was a stupid and offensive remark, but why should he be arrested?audreyanne said:
People can be arrested for far less offensive comments than that odious turd. Whoever he is, I hope he's brought to some justice.BlackDouglas said:So, the treatment of Murray? Some pleasant chappie said he should have died in Dunblane
Anyone who saw the BBC interview with Andy Murray will know how raw he remains about that awful day, so to come up with shit like that is below even the devil.
The police need to concentrate on real crimes (such as systematic rape rings) rather than chasing twats on twitter!0 -
Postal votes are never included in the polling station count unless one explicitly asks (and sometimes they don't know). So if Roger's station is on 62% and the PV average is 18, that makes it 80% total at 18.30, which sounds plausible for a turnout of say 86-7%.CarlottaVance said:
On average I think postal votes are 18.5% of the total...Peter_the_Punter said:
Does that take account of postal voting, Roger?Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
If it does, it is strikingly low, if not, rather high.
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That's what I was figuring, Nick.NickPalmer said:
Postal votes are never included in the polling station count unless one explicitly asks (and sometimes they don't know). So if Roger's station is on 62% and the PV average is 18, that makes it 80% total at 18.30, which sounds plausible for a turnout of say 86-7%.CarlottaVance said:
On average I think postal votes are 18.5% of the total...Peter_the_Punter said:
Does that take account of postal voting, Roger?Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
If it does, it is strikingly low, if not, rather high.
What was your prediction? I don't seem to recall.... ;-)
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You would have screamed bloody murder is Osborne had implemented some of the cuts that the Irish government didsurbiton said:
They did a far better job than Osborne.Neil said:Impressive GDP figures in Ireland today. Could be looking at GDP growth of 4.5% for the year. Budget deficit down to 3.5%. And after many extremely tough years probably a fiscally neutral budget - the end of austerity.
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Depends how they go about it. If they just bang on about how terrible it is and how something should be done, rather than actually providing viable solutions, they will be rightly slated. If they do provide solutions good luck to them.isam said:
They'll probably get more criticism for mentioning it than the people who let it happenperdix said:
Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.isam said:Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html
Maybe if no one mentions it, it will all go away and we can carry on like before0 -
It wasn't a tragedy (which implies some sort of Act of God that no-one could really have done anything about).perdix said:
Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.isam said:Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html
It was a series of crimes - vile, serious crimes - over a prolonged period, accompanied by a wholesale failure by the relevant authorities to deal with those crimes and do the job they're paid to do, followed by a failure by those authorities to accept responsibility and take action against those individuals who committed the crimes and those individuals who failed in their duties.
That is an entirely proper matter for a political party to discuss.
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Spurs look worse every time I see them...0
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Personally I do not like Murray,nothing to do with his views,he is just very unlikeable due to total lack of personality.audreyanne said:
People can be arrested for far less offensive comments than that odious turd. Whoever he is, I hope he's brought to some justice.BlackDouglas said:So, the treatment of Murray? Some pleasant chappie said he should have died in Dunblane
Anyone who saw the BBC interview with Andy Murray will know how raw he remains about that awful day, so to come up with shit like that is below even the devil.
However,I draw the line at Dunblane attacks,it was horrific,he must have been affected. Whoever made the comments are just scum,pure and simple.
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Absolutely. Knock 'em dead, Nigel!Cyclefree said:
It wasn't a tragedy (which implies some sort of Act of God that no-one could really have done anything about).perdix said:
Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.isam said:Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html
It was a series of crimes - vile, serious crimes - over a prolonged period, accompanied by a wholesale failure by the relevant authorities to deal with those crimes and do the job they're paid to do, followed by a failure by those authorities to accept responsibility and take action against those individuals who committed the crimes and those individuals who failed in their duties.
That is an entirely proper matter for a political party to discuss.
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Well I would imagine that helpful Rangers supporters will have offered to go along and cast a ballot on behalf of their Celtic friends who cannot do so themselves because they will be at the match.foxinsoxuk said:I see Celtic are playing tonight. Might keep the turnout low in parts of Glasgow?
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This is really silly and pointless. We are part of NATO for a start. The whole of Europe is defended by NATO. We play our part. We have a huge defence budget, a significant part of which is spent on nuclear submarines as well as fighters and bombers. Our NATO partners are spending sums and amazingly they have ships and aircraft too.HurstLlama said:
Oh. Mr. Watcher, that is unfair. Maybe you should go back through the thread again and read what I have actually said. The Channel is neither here nor there. The RN's lack of surface combat capability has been my point and the fact that RAF and, as far as I can work out the QE class, have none either.TheWatcher said:
We stepped through the looking glass and into Fantasy Land when you suggested that a Kirov and a carrier would attack a Type 45 in the English Channel.
How many ships do you think the RN would need to take on the Russians, and everyone else in your 'Alice in Wonderland' scenario? 100, 200+? Do we cut services, or increase taxes to pay for them?
I am not proposing a fantasy solution just pointing out an issue, the RN is not actually capable of defending these islands, let alone their essential trades routes.
And just why would the Russians send outdated and vulnerable ships into the cramped area of the North Sea where they would be surrounded by enemies?0 -
Congratulations to Jens Voigt for smashing the hour record.0
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No we stepped through the looking glass when the original suggestion was made that the Russians would try to seize Scottish oil fields.TheWatcher said:
We stepped through the looking glass and into Fantasy Land when you suggested that a Kirov and a carrier would attack a Type 45 in the English Channel.
How many ships do you think the RN would need to take on the Russians, and everyone else in your 'Alice in Wonderland' scenario? 100, 200+? Do we cut services, or increase taxes to pay for them?
Everything else follows on from that ludicrous suggestion.0 -
Found itFat_Steve said:Does anyone have a link to Andy JS spreadsheet of areas and his YES predictions?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/edit?pli=1#gid=0
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If they are more generous on welfare, and have a fixed budget, won't that just mean people move fom England to Scotland to claim benefits?manofkent2014 said:<
I have no doubt it will be less than Salmond wants (Independence) so he will whine incessantly throughout the whole exercise which will result in him being offered more than the government wants to give and that will likely have a cost to it. As it goes as pensions are one of the biggest headaches for Government. Having funding which is fully accounted for has no allure to it at all. There is no good news there for voters. I'm quite sure Salmond will be happy if London hangs on to that for the time being. That he can wrest control of the rest of the Welfare policy I suspect is more his aim and then he will be able to further wind up the English.
But still that is not the main problem with what is on offer. It is the seemingly open ended continuation of that economic nonsense Barnett which means that London aside southern and eastern regions of England remain outrageously underfunded in order that north of the border they can have free prescriptions, free university education and presumably in future advantageous welfare settlements.0 -
Going by news it looks like big big turnout , they are limping in , pushed in wheelchairs , with oxygen and does not look like many are going to miss voting.0
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(Probably noted)
UKPR polling average has been update now showing a Labour majority of just 16 with average shares of Con 33% Lab 35% Lib 8%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/0 -
Just told Mrs Jayfdee I will be getting up at 4 am,she has denounced me as a sad git.
It is a once in a lifetime decision,but she was not enthused,"It can wait till breakfast",
Ho Hum0 -
Osborne has done rather well. If he is measured by his own scale. I'm pretty happy to judge him that way. Just because no one has called him an 'iron chancellor' or whatever hardly makes him less worthy.Charles said:
You would have screamed bloody murder is Osborne had implemented some of the cuts that the Irish government didsurbiton said:
They did a far better job than Osborne.Neil said:Impressive GDP figures in Ireland today. Could be looking at GDP growth of 4.5% for the year. Budget deficit down to 3.5%. And after many extremely tough years probably a fiscally neutral budget - the end of austerity.
Let us be clear though - no Labour chancellor has done as well as the worst of the Tory chancellors. I believe this has almost become axiomatic.
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And has the merit for UKIP that in Rochdale no established party has totally clean hands.MikeK said:
Absolutely. Knock 'em dead, Nigel!Cyclefree said:
It wasn't a tragedy (which implies some sort of Act of God that no-one could really have done anything about).perdix said:
Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.isam said:Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html
It was a series of crimes - vile, serious crimes - over a prolonged period, accompanied by a wholesale failure by the relevant authorities to deal with those crimes and do the job they're paid to do, followed by a failure by those authorities to accept responsibility and take action against those individuals who committed the crimes and those individuals who failed in their duties.
That is an entirely proper matter for a political party to discuss.0 -
Move along now. Nothing to see here.perdix said:
Yes, ukip milking the tragedy for all it's worth.isam said:Farage has been in Rochdale
"With another by-election campaign under way following the sad death of Jim Dobbin, I’m spending the day in Rochdale with the Ukip candidate John Bickley. And I’m struck that while normally these campaigns are fought on issues such as local hospitals, housing developments, or the previous incumbent having done something daft, this one is different.
In Rochdale everyone is talking about child grooming and what went wrong in the local child safe-guarding services. This is the heart of an area where decades of abuse against minors was uncovered."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/after-isis-and-the-rotherham-abuse-scandal-im-not-surprised-some-people-are-turning-to-violence-9741442.html
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Keep whipping them in, Malcolm! It's great for my bank account.malcolmg said:Going by news it looks like big big turnout , they are limping in , pushed in wheelchairs , with oxygen and does not look like many are going to miss voting.
Btw, regarding our exchange the other nite....I wasn't trying to be insulting, just teasing gently. If it hurt, I'm sorry. I try to make it a rule that I wouldn't say anything to anybody on the net that I wouldn't say to their face. I don't expect others to follow that code, but if you can agree to do so in our exchanges, I can then say in all honesty 'pax vobiscum'.
OK?0 -
0
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Noo fred >0
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BT brought in some crack troops it seems
A former Merseyside council leader was arrested and charged with assault as she campaigned against Scottish independence at a polling station in Glasgow.
Marie Rimmer, who has been on St Helens council for more than three decades, was held after, the ECHO understands, a woman was kicked at a community centre in the Shettleston area of Glasgow around lunchtime as Scots turned out to cast their vote in the landmark referendum.
She was among droves of Merseyside politicians in Scotland to support the 'No' campaign, urging Scotland not to abandon the union during today's historic vote.
But it is understood a dispute broke out between the rival camps at the Shettleston Community Centre in Amulree Street in the inner city suburbs of the country's second city.
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He's a real star, no mistake.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Congratulations to Jens Voigt for smashing the hour record.
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Again, irrelevant. Who's talking about sin? I'm talking about effect. And Britain's effect on the 19th century, despite undoubted colonial abuses (not just by Britain), it was one of relative peace and massive prosperity. Because of the fact that it had always been a seafaring and trading nation, Britain bore the responsibility of being the lender of last resort well. America's leadership of the world economy was a disaster. Let's hope when China takes over, they will follow the British model, not the American one, though I'm not optimistic.Socrates said:
You think adding tariffs to American imports was a worse sin than enforcing a monopoly over an entire subcontinent and only allowing them to sell to one buyer, often at below the cost of production? For two hundred years Indian incomes barely moved because they were actively suppressed from moving past raw agriculture.
As for the rise of Naziism and WW2, the biggest problem there was that the US WASN'T involved enough. Congress made them go into one of their disastrous isolationist phases, which rendered the League of Nations and collective deterrence toothless. Hitler saw how the US-less international community responded to Mussolini and knew it was game on.
As for your second para, firstly, the rise of fascism and nazism could not have occurred without The Great Depression. Secondly, your argument about collective deterrence surely reinforces the point about American insularity and selfishness rather than undermining it.
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Celtic playing football tonight may close down the male vote in the East End. I like Nick am coming down on my turnout predictions. We overestimate the ability of something even as important as a vote on independence to make people care. The sun is coming down. Stopped at a local booth (N Lanarks) to pick up a mate who was voting and like Roger said it was quiet. I have had enough of the stress and off to go swimming with my club.
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In UKIP world, no other nation is to be trusted to take up it's role in a NATO integrated defence force. Ideally they'd expect the Royal Navy to have lets say 4 or 5 carriers, 30-40 Type 26's, 20+ Astutes, 20+ Type 45's and so on. Who knows from where the money would come, to pay for the vessels, shore bases and manning.Flightpath said:
This is really silly and pointless. We are part of NATO for a start. The whole of Europe is defended by NATO. We play our part. We have a huge defence budget, a significant part of which is spent on nuclear submarines as well as fighters and bombers. Our NATO partners are spending sums and amazingly they have ships and aircraft too.HurstLlama said:
Oh. Mr. Watcher, that is unfair. Maybe you should go back through the thread again and read what I have actually said. The Channel is neither here nor there. The RN's lack of surface combat capability has been my point and the fact that RAF and, as far as I can work out the QE class, have none either.TheWatcher said:
We stepped through the looking glass and into Fantasy Land when you suggested that a Kirov and a carrier would attack a Type 45 in the English Channel.
How many ships do you think the RN would need to take on the Russians, and everyone else in your 'Alice in Wonderland' scenario? 100, 200+? Do we cut services, or increase taxes to pay for them?
I am not proposing a fantasy solution just pointing out an issue, the RN is not actually capable of defending these islands, let alone their essential trades routes.
And just why would the Russians send outdated and vulnerable ships into the cramped area of the North Sea where they would be surrounded by enemies?
The Senior Service would no doubt love that too, but they cocked up big time when they chose 2 new carriers over more frigates and destroyers, having stupidly believed that if they had the former, HMG would pay for the latter without question.0 -
Thanks !AndyJS said:Fat Steve: see my Twitter page
https://www.twitter.com/andyjsajs0 -
Best buddies Pete, you were right I was being too sensitive which is not like me. Hope you win big time.Peter_the_Punter said:
Keep whipping them in, Malcolm! It's great for my bank account.malcolmg said:Going by news it looks like big big turnout , they are limping in , pushed in wheelchairs , with oxygen and does not look like many are going to miss voting.
Btw, regarding our exchange the other nite....I wasn't trying to be insulting, just teasing gently. If it hurt, I'm sorry. I try to make it a rule that I wouldn't say anything to anybody on the net that I wouldn't say to their face. I don't expect others to follow that code, but if you can agree to do so in our exchanges, I can then say in all honesty 'pax vobiscum'.
OK?0 -
I don't know where in Aberdeen Roger's polling station is. But it is also worth considering that there will currently be some 20,000 people offshore and a sizeable minority of them will live in and around Aberdeen. I wonder if postal votes will be higher in Aberdeen than the rest of Scotland?SeanT said:
But of course we don't know if Roger's station is representative. Where is he, Dundee? For any number of reasons it could be lower or higher than average, on turnout.NickPalmer said:
Postal votes are never included in the polling station count unless one explicitly asks (and sometimes they don't know). So if Roger's station is on 62% and the PV average is 18, that makes it 80% total at 18.30, which sounds plausible for a turnout of say 86-7%.CarlottaVance said:
On average I think postal votes are 18.5% of the total...Peter_the_Punter said:
Does that take account of postal voting, Roger?Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
If it does, it is strikingly low, if not, rather high.
Nonetheless I reckon my guess of 82% turnout is going to be a bit on the low side. More like 85%?
And I have NO idea who this favours. I have heard persuasive arguments both ways.0 -
0
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good chart
http://independencerally.com/0 -
She's a PPC...malcolmg said:BT brought in some crack troops it seems
A former Merseyside council leader was arrested and charged with assault as she campaigned against Scottish independence at a polling station in Glasgow.
Marie Rimmer, who has been on St Helens council for more than three decades, was held after, the ECHO understands, a woman was kicked at a community centre in the Shettleston area of Glasgow around lunchtime as Scots turned out to cast their vote in the landmark referendum.
She was among droves of Merseyside politicians in Scotland to support the 'No' campaign, urging Scotland not to abandon the union during today's historic vote.
But it is understood a dispute broke out between the rival camps at the Shettleston Community Centre in Amulree Street in the inner city suburbs of the country's second city.0 -
That sounds like a normal day in Shettleston.0
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I'm sticking with my turnout prediction of 83.35%.0
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It's not every day that a female PPC gets arrested and charged with assault...0
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I think it was 84%. But I'm far from expert on this unique event. I don't think 90+ is actually possible (because of death, moving away etc.) so the realistic bands are probably 81-85 or 86-90, though 76-80 is just possible.Peter_the_Punter said:
That's what I was figuring, Nick.NickPalmer said:
Postal votes are never included in the polling station count unless one explicitly asks (and sometimes they don't know). So if Roger's station is on 62% and the PV average is 18, that makes it 80% total at 18.30, which sounds plausible for a turnout of say 86-7%.CarlottaVance said:
On average I think postal votes are 18.5% of the total...Peter_the_Punter said:
Does that take account of postal voting, Roger?Roger said:It's only up to 62% turnout here and for the last 20 mins there hasn't been a single voter. I think the young 20 something's have done what they always do and decided that Scotland can survive without their involvement.
If it does, it is strikingly low, if not, rather high.
What was your prediction? I don't seem to recall.... ;-)
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Of course we are defended within NATO and we all know that an attack on one member is an attack on us all and we will all rally round and declare war on the aggressor? That's right isn't it? Good old Article V and all that. Except that is not actually what the article commits members to do.Flightpath said:
This is really silly and pointless. We are part of NATO for a start. The whole of Europe is defended by NATO. We play our part. We have a huge defence budget, a significant part of which is spent on nuclear submarines as well as fighters and bombers. Our NATO partners are spending sums and amazingly they have ships and aircraft too.HurstLlama said:
Oh. Mr. Watcher, that is unfair. Maybe you should go back through the thread again and read what I have actually said. The Channel is neither here nor there. The RN's lack of surface combat capability has been my point and the fact that RAF and, as far as I can work out the QE class, have none either.TheWatcher said:
We stepped through the looking glass and into Fantasy Land when you suggested that a Kirov and a carrier would attack a Type 45 in the English Channel.
How many ships do you think the RN would need to take on the Russians, and everyone else in your 'Alice in Wonderland' scenario? 100, 200+? Do we cut services, or increase taxes to pay for them?
I am not proposing a fantasy solution just pointing out an issue, the RN is not actually capable of defending these islands, let alone their essential trades routes.
Oh, and which members have got what capability these days? Yes they all have ships and aeroplanes but what can those ships and aeroplanes actually do?
Might be a good idea to check your house insurance policies and make sure that actually cover what you might think they do.0 -
New here so apologies for what is probably a stupid question. In a two horse race, huge unknowns, difference between the sides in polls within the margin of error, how can the odds be so wildly out? 6.4 on yes must be a worth a bet, possibly a huge one? What am I missing?0
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@Historyman Margin of Error is commonly understood - a 3% MOE on a poll giving a 47-53 result does NOT mean a result of 44-56 or 50-50 is just as likely. The odds on YES are so low because all the polls today are predicting a NO victory0
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not_on_fire - If I offered you long odds that the polls were wrong by some distance would you take them? The polling organisations have no idea how to model the answers, the different companies started with quite large differences but have converged around the same numbers. They may well be spot on or close to right but it still seems the possibility of them being very wrong are quite high and high enough to justify a punt at long odds, I am trying to see if I have missed something obvious that means I shouldn't take the Yes odds on a value basis.0
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test
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https://www.facebook.com/photo.php
fbid=1491794924424262&set=gm.718552348200177&type=1&theater
The largest Union Jack I have ever seen on Arthur's seat yesterday.
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https://www.facebook.com/photo.php
fbid=1491794924424262&set=gm.718552348200177&type=1&theater
The largest Union Jack I have ever seen on Arthur's seat yesterday.
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