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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the fi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the final two poll to be completed had NO with the largest leads

So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll for STV published yesterday evening and based on fieldwork carried out Monday and Tuesday.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,042
    First and Yes!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    If I was Scottish I'd have been a Yes -> No switcher in the last few days.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Separatists? The Nats don't like that term.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    If my wife is anything to go by, then there will be a swing to NO.
    She has been for a long time a YES supporter, but has become increasingly uneasy and finally jumped ship to NO last night.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    The two bits that stuck out from this polling

    May2015 ‏@May2015NS 21s

    First-time voters make up 13% of Yes support, but 10% for No acc to @IpsosMORI. The new aren't just pro-indy: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/scottish-yes-and-myth-masses

    Bobby Duffy @BobbyIpsosMORI · 14m

    46% in Scotland expect No to win #indyref, 30% expect Yes - can be an important indicator of outcomes http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3453/Small-lead-for-No-but-referendum-result-still-looks-extremely-close.aspx …
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Go Gordon!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Separatists? The Nats don't like that term.

    He'll rue the day......

    (Last time - I promise!)
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Noooooooooooooooooo!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    DaemonBarber said:

    If my wife is anything to go by, then there will be a swing to NO.
    She has been for a long time a YES supporter, but has become increasingly uneasy and finally jumped ship to NO last night.

    What in particular has made her uneasy?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Prof Tomkins analyses the two campaigns:

    I suspect that when the history of the Scottish independence referendum campaign is written neither of the official “designated lead organisations” will come out of it shining.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-better-together-learned-too-late
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    The PB Wisdom of the Crowds

    Avg Yes 47.92
    Avg Turnout 82.95

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2014
    JackW said:

    Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?

    Actually, he's remarkably calm today - medicated, but calm ; )
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    The 50% - 55% Yes band with Betfair has now gone out to 7.8, equivalent to approx 13/2 in old money.
    DYOR
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    What's Eck's Best Pal, Ruper Murdoch been tweeting today?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?

    My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.

    I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
    The mid-point between the two predictions is 43.9% [if I'm correct in remembering YES at 40.5% in the McARSE].
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The PB Wisdom of the Crowds

    Avg Yes 47.92
    Avg Turnout 82.95

    http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php

    I think pb is in the ballpark with the YES vote, but I reckon turnout could easily be higher than 82
    We agree
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    So it looks like we're going to get the worst possible outcome - a narrow NO.

    Scotland deeply split and angry, more and more baubles offered to them but no compensating common sense offered to England, a divided union that looks fractured and faces a very uncertain period of constituional argument. Not a great day. A YES would have been alot cleaner.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Gay ex Tory standing for ukip in South London

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/18/Former-Tory-candidate-to-stand-for-UKIP-in-2015/
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    I wonder if David Cameron has drafted his resignation speech yet?

    Sorry, but I wasn't very good at it after all
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?

    My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.

    I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
    You mean it's your final and official pb prediction before your next one after lunch.

    Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.

    Get a grip of yourself man.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    YES coming in...
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    O/T but this is boiling away whilst everyone is distracted elsewhere.

    An investigation has been launched after a woman died in an ambulance queuing outside a hospital.

    It has been reported the woman may have been waiting in the vehicle outside Morriston Hospital in Swansea, south Wales, for up to 40 minutes.

    Her death came as the British Medical Association (BMA) said the NHS in Wales was facing "imminent meltdown".

    http://news.sky.com/story/1337888/patient-dies-in-hospital-ambulance-queue
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Separatists? The Nats don't like that term.

    Reality hurts...

    Personally I'd have preferred a yes. It would make the economic fantasists face themselves in the mirror eventually.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Hugh said:

    I wonder if David Cameron has drafted his resignation speech yet?

    Sorry, but I wasn't very good at it after all

    Nice to see you are self-aware, Hugh.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    I am currently waiting on my armed escort to take me to the polling station.
    I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    RodCrosby said:

    YES coming in...

    uh oh...
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    Thought Gordon Browns speech yesterday was brilliant. Maybe this campaign will convince some of the Labour 'Big Beasts' to head to Holyrood. The current Labour offering especially Johann Lamont don't strike me as the most inspiring team.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good morning from Boston, USA. What's the latest?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    OblitusSumMe said:

    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?

    My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.

    I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
    The mid-point between the two predictions is 43.9% [if I'm correct in remembering YES at 40.5% in the McARSE].
    Almost. NO 60.5% .. YES 39.5%

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    My own feeling -- if I were a Scot, would be one of rage.

    After a mammoth campaign, lasting 2 years, I would expect politicians to have provided me with clear idea of what awaits if I either vote Yes or No.

    The Scots are being asked to choose between two pigs in pokes.

    They are being asked to decide who is the bigger confidence trickster, Yes or No.

    After two years of campaigning, I would have expected Yes to have properly sorted out questions like currency and EU membership, and No to have properly sorted out what they mean by DevoMax.

    Without that information, I have no basis for making a sensible decision.

    So, if I had a vote, I'd probably abstain.




  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    This is the way Great Britain ends: Not with a bang but a whinger

  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    AndyJS said:

    Good morning from Boston, USA. What's the latest?

    Nothing, general mood seems to be NO vote is coming out but it's early days.

  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    So it looks like we're going to get the worst possible outcome - a narrow NO.

    Scotland deeply split and angry, more and more baubles offered to them but no compensating common sense offered to England, a divided union that looks fractured and faces a very uncertain period of constituional argument. Not a great day. A YES would have been alot cleaner.

    A YES could easily kick off an extremely nasty recession, a property price crash, you name it.

    So for all the constitutional niceties - fuck that.

    Let's avoid economic meltdown, and then try and fix the politics later.
    The idea of a property price crash probably isn't that scary to the millions of people priced out of ever owning a home.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890

    Just tipped a first ever toe in the water with a Ladbrokes Account.

    First it tries to generate popup windows. Then it ends up in "casino". Then it has attached a bonus so it refuses to move it to Sportbook.

    Pah.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    If my wife is anything to go by, then there will be a swing to NO.
    She has been for a long time a YES supporter, but has become increasingly uneasy and finally jumped ship to NO last night.

    What in particular has made her uneasy?
    She wan't convinced by supporting evidence from the YES side as to why the bad scenarios from NO side were unlikely/false. The volume of bad press and dissenting expert opinion shook her confidence.

    She took the view that if you balance the worst possible outcome from both sides, which would you least like to happen, and how would you feel having voted for it.

    Plus she felt that there was something a bit cultish surrounding Salmond/SNP.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Jack, I'm sorry but 'yes' is not going to make it to 40%. Maybe 39% if they are very lucky. All that devomax will turn out to have been an enormously pointless bribe.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Her death came as the British Medical Association (BMA) said the NHS in Wales was facing "imminent meltdown".

    Under labour? that cannot be.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Don't believe it, I'm being barred from logging on to Betfair. I didn't realise the USA was a country where they don't operate. I know France is.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Yes price has come in from 5.9 to 5.7
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    lol

    Until a few minutes ago, skybet were offering 10/3 on Edinburgh voting no. Now it's 1/20.

    Their politics trader needs to be taken out & shot.
  • jam2809jam2809 Posts: 62
    DanSmith said:

    RodCrosby said:

    YES coming in...

    uh oh...
    Its better to watch the NO odds; the vast majority of the liquidity & money is on back / lay NO, not YES. I don't think the NO odds, currently ~1.21-1.22 have moved much...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Cardiff City need a new manager
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    OMG - Jeremy Vine has awful graphics displays to play with. Green for Yes, Red for No.

    Preceded by how to vote clip with some jobsworth speaking to the under 5s, about how to place a cross in a box.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cardiff City need a new manager

    Twas inevitable I fear. Who' d want the job????
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?

    My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.

    I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
    You mean it's your final and official pb prediction before your next one after lunch.

    Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.

    Get a grip of yourself man.

    Ouch!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Jack, I'm sorry but 'yes' is not going to make it to 40%. Maybe 39% if they are very lucky. All that devomax will turn out to have been an enormously pointless bribe.

    Have you been drinking your fathers hair restorative tonic .... again ?!?

    Kindly re-read my 12:58 post.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Alistair said:

    Yes price has come in from 5.9 to 5.7

    Weird how you didn't report it going out to 5.7
  • Jebediah_Beane1Jebediah_Beane1 Posts: 25
    There is no little liquidity on the Yes side that a few quid either way nudges it
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Why is Betfair banned in the USA? I thought this was supposed to be the land of the free...
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Er what was the wording on this final Mori poll?

    The infographic I've seen says "Should Scotland BECOME an independent country"

    That's not right, surely?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    DaemonBarber said:



    Plus she felt that there was something a bit cultish surrounding Salmond/SNP.

    Definitely - if this was a purely intellectual exercise I reckon Scotland would actually be better off independent. But its not, it'll become Salmond's personal fiefdom. Or at least it sort of feels that way...
  • Jebediah_Beane1Jebediah_Beane1 Posts: 25
    "...so little..." - sorry
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Yes price has come in from 5.9 to 5.7

    Weird how you didn't report it going out to 5.7
    I was asleep. And didn't I? I've feverishly posted any movement I've been aware of both in and out.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?

    My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.

    I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
    You mean it's your final and official pb prediction before your next one after lunch.

    Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.

    Get a grip of yourself man.

    Ouch!
    And you were his understudy ....

    Turnip (copyright malcolmg)

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    edited September 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    I am currently waiting on my armed escort to take me to the polling station.
    I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)

    Don't forget the mid-upper gunner will need extra ammo. BTW, see if this is being handed out by BT - will be interested to know if it is true.

    twitter.com/Grassroots_Sco/status/512546718333034496/photo/1



  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Betfir is just a source of endless fascination for me at the moment as the price doesn't seem to be driven by anything more than 'a hunch' from the market.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,549
    On the discussion on God Save the Queen, I'm surprised no one has mention the wonderful version by Britten.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mV1-OkHQ9KQ#

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    YBarddCwsc said:

    My own feeling -- if I were a Scot, would be one of rage.

    After a mammoth campaign, lasting 2 years, I would expect politicians to have provided me with clear idea of what awaits if I either vote Yes or No.

    The Scots are being asked to choose between two pigs in pokes.

    They are being asked to decide who is the bigger confidence trickster, Yes or No.

    After two years of campaigning, I would have expected Yes to have properly sorted out questions like currency and EU membership, and No to have properly sorted out what they mean by DevoMax.

    Without that information, I have no basis for making a sensible decision.

    So, if I had a vote, I'd probably abstain.




    Very true, very true. The status quo is safer I'd have thought, certainly in terms of the economics without any doubt in my mind, but you are right Yes has been selling the moon on a stick with free tartan unicorns on the side, and No have made a "vow" of what exactly (any idea?), and how does that fit in with what rUK feels?

    Just so so bad all round.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    AndyJS said:

    Don't believe it, I'm being barred from logging on to Betfair. I didn't realise the USA was a country where they don't operate. I know France is.

    Use a vpn
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    Er what was the wording on this final Mori poll?

    The infographic I've seen says "Should Scotland BECOME an independent country"

    That's not right, surely?

    Yesterday's poll had that issue, the inforgraphic said "Become" but the data tables said "Be"

    Ipsos-Mori confirmed they used "be" in the question
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It seems fairly clear from the polls that men are going to vote Yes and women No, and men under 50 in particular are supporting Yes. That might be a problem since younger men tend to be the ones who cause trouble in any society.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited September 2014
    Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."

    No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.

    Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    Jack, I'm sorry but 'yes' is not going to make it to 40%. Maybe 39% if they are very lucky. All that devomax will turn out to have been an enormously pointless bribe.

    Which is what those of us with steady nerves were saying during the YOUGOV heebie jeebies....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Can't believe any price moves before 6pm are based on insider info.

  • jam2809jam2809 Posts: 62
    Alistair said:

    Betfir is just a source of endless fascination for me at the moment as the price doesn't seem to be driven by anything more than 'a hunch' from the market.

    Me too. The YES odds are definately too long not withstanding the polls. The FX markets are also very complacent. Already bet heavily on YES, am thinking about adding a sell GBP FX position...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-no-vote

    I suspect the borders will just edge this.

    There's a little value in the 5/1 IMO (down from 7/1 yesterday)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Scottish referendum: should political polling be banned?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/willardfoxton2/100014223/scottish-referendum-should-political-polling-be-banned/
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Time for some lunch ....

    Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....

    Marvellous .....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?

    My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.

    I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
    You mean it's your final and official pb prediction before your next one after lunch.

    Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.

    Get a grip of yourself man.

    Ouch!
    And you were his understudy ....

    Turnip (copyright malcolmg)

    Actually on this matter I haven't had much to say at all. Not really fussed what Scotland does to be honest...

    *Shrug*

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Alistair said:

    Betfir is just a source of endless fascination for me at the moment as the price doesn't seem to be driven by anything more than 'a hunch' from the market.

    It's not really worth reporting on the YES movements unless they are quite big, because they are just the mirror of the no price but with smaller increments

    So YES moving from 5.9 to 5.2 is the equivalent of NO moving from 1.204 to 1.238

    YES 5.9 to 5.7 is NO 1.204 to 1.212
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JackW said:

    Time for some lunch ....

    Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....

    Marvellous .....

    Stuffed salmond tomorrow ?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    Time for some lunch ....

    Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....

    Marvellous .....

    Stuffed salmond tomorrow ?
    Cameron on Toast.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    thoughts on turnout - tweet from Paul Waugh.

    RT @alanjrenwick: #indyref referendum turnout graphic pic.twitter.com/VSGeiePQwN @AndrewSparrow @MSmithsonPB @britainelects @paulwaugh

    Highest turnout in Scotland 1950 - 80.9%. Highest in UK 1959 - 84.0%
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    Time for some lunch ....

    Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....

    Marvellous .....

    Stuffed salmond tomorrow ?
    A bitter tasting dish. Very fatty, with curry overtones.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    Time for some lunch ....

    Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....

    Marvellous .....

    Stuffed salmond tomorrow ?
    Cameron on Toast.
    Ed M toasted bacon bap.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014
    DaemonBarber said:

    She wan't convinced by supporting evidence from the YES side as to why the bad scenarios from NO side were unlikely/false. The volume of bad press and dissenting expert opinion shook her confidence.

    She took the view that if you balance the worst possible outcome from both sides, which would you least like to happen, and how would you feel having voted for it.

    Plus she felt that there was something a bit cultish surrounding Salmond/SNP.

    Thanks. One could characterise that as 'general doubt' about the leap into the dark of a Yes, and I expect it will be widely shared, which is why I expect the final Yes figure to be lower than the polls are indicating.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    dr_spyn said:

    Hugh said:

    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    Time for some lunch ....

    Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....

    Marvellous .....

    Stuffed salmond tomorrow ?
    Cameron on Toast.
    Ed M toasted bacon bap.

    Kippers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pong said:

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-no-vote

    I suspect the borders will just edge this.

    There's a little value in the 5/1 IMO (down from 7/1 yesterday)

    You don't think Orkney or Shetland might be possible candidates?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,042
    AndyJS said:

    Why is Betfair banned in the USA? I thought this was supposed to be the land of the free...

    Use the ZenMate add-on for Chrome and set your location to London or Switzerland.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    JackW said:

    Time for some lunch ....

    Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....

    Marvellous .....

    Maybe an Ortolan or two?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Carnyx said:

    Smarmeron said:

    I am currently waiting on my armed escort to take me to the polling station.
    I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)

    Don't forget the mid-upper gunner will need extra ammo. BTW, see if this is being handed out by BT - will be interested to know if it is true.

    twitter.com/Grassroots_Sco/status/512546718333034496/photo/1



    Does that mean if you do know vote Yes?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Alice Gross disappearance: Suspect Arnis Zalkalns has murder conviction

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29251735

    I've always said we should have back ground checks on the free movement of people from the EU.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited September 2014
    TheWatcher said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Hugh said:

    TGOHF said:

    JackW said:

    Time for some lunch ....

    Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....

    Marvellous .....

    Stuffed salmond tomorrow ?
    Cameron on Toast.
    Ed M toasted bacon bap.

    Kippers.
    Lightly smoked over oak chippings.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    TGOHF said:

    Can't believe any price moves before 6pm are based on insider info.

    No and it may simply be mischief making by people who stand to lose (or gain) large amounts. I remember a pack of nonsense about Labour being on course to lose posted here on the 2005 GE night. It turned out to be a few people trying to recoup their own losses.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited September 2014
    This is quite interesting:

    46% tell @IpsosMORI final poll that NO will win 30% say YES

    Didn't ICM say that at the last election people's expectations were actually closer to the final result than the official opinion polls?

    Hence ICM's "wisdom poll" thing?

    The result could be much more comfortable for NO than the official opinion polls have indicated?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    UKIP trade at 6/1 on Betfair for H&M.. 8/1 with Hills, you may as well get on now before the other firms go up 5/1
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Where's the Swedish tour guide today?
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    Had a nice marketing woman in today who could not sleep last night. She has a conference in London tomorrow and could not face going if it was a Yes. It is these simple practical things that are turning women voters to No.

    Polling was heavy but not queuing out the door. When I was there I saw almost no youngsters voting. My son at the age of 20 has never voted before and was unsure of the process. If I had not guided him he would never have voted. I picked 79% and not sure we will get to 85%. Listening to the pop radio stations up here they are talking about the recent polls and this may convince some voters on both sides not to bother.



  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I hope to hear the good people in Scotland have behaved impeccably on election day and that electoral staff are given the due respect their code of conduct deserves.The role of alcohol in the UK,including Scotland,needs to be re-examined and stricter regulation to move from Hogarth's gin alley to beer lane seems to be needed.Blair's deregulation has been devastating for public health.I have observed what might be called a collective alcohol psychosis,paranoid grandiosity or grandiose paranoia.
    I hope the Scots leave the swallying until later in the evening to accompany the popcorn.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    While we are all waiting - Why is it 'polling place' in Scotland and 'polling station' in England?
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Hugh said:

    Er what was the wording on this final Mori poll?

    The infographic I've seen says "Should Scotland BECOME an independent country"

    That's not right, surely?

    If so that's significant. Ever since Faisal Islam posted the photo of the ballot paper I've been worried. 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' seems to beg the answer 'Yes.' It's such a bland looking question, and quite hard to argue against. Well, yep, we should all be independent in a way. 'Be' rather than 'become' is also very different.

    Mike (OGH) do you know if all the pollsters have asked the identical question to the ballot paper?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    CopperSulphate said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    So it looks like we're going to get the worst possible outcome - a narrow NO.

    Scotland deeply split and angry, more and more baubles offered to them but no compensating common sense offered to England, a divided union that looks fractured and faces a very uncertain period of constituional argument. Not a great day. A YES would have been alot cleaner.

    A YES could easily kick off an extremely nasty recession, a property price crash, you name it.

    So for all the constitutional niceties - fuck that.

    Let's avoid economic meltdown, and then try and fix the politics later.
    The idea of a property price crash probably isn't that scary to the millions of people priced out of ever owning a home.
    Or those planning on trading upwards.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    The official question is "Should Scotland be an independent country?" not "Should Scotland become an independent country".
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    BTW. No evidence that the poll is being conducted in anything other than a cordial manner. No intimidation from either side.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    isam said:

    UKIP trade at 6/1 on Betfair for H&M.. 8/1 with Hills, you may as well get on now before the other firms go up 5/1

    Could you be careful with Betfair prices. The ones you show are the Sportsbook ones which serious punters avoid like the plague. The exchange ones are best guide.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    taffys said:

    A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.

    I should hope so !
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    GIN1138 said:

    This is quite interesting:

    ....

    The result could be much more comfortable for NO than the official opinion polls have indicated?

    I have wondered if the reporting of bad temper and nastiness would influence polling. I could well believe that people were nervous about saying "NO" and said either "YES" or "DK".

    If NO has a wide margin then I will be interested to see if we ever find out how many NO voters simply felt too scared to admit it out loud.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    SimonStClare said:

    While we are all waiting - Why is it 'polling place' in Scotland and 'polling station' in England?

    I don't know but "Polling station" has a slightly colonial feel about it, and the Scots tend to shy away from anything with those connotations. "Polling place" is more clear and neutral.

    Another one is "bus stance" in Scotland instead of "bus stand".
This discussion has been closed.