politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the fi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the final two poll to be completed had NO with the largest leads
So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll for STV published yesterday evening and based on fieldwork carried out Monday and Tuesday.
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She has been for a long time a YES supporter, but has become increasingly uneasy and finally jumped ship to NO last night.
May2015 @May2015NS 21s
First-time voters make up 13% of Yes support, but 10% for No acc to @IpsosMORI. The new aren't just pro-indy: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/scottish-yes-and-myth-masses
Bobby Duffy @BobbyIpsosMORI · 14m
46% in Scotland expect No to win #indyref, 30% expect Yes - can be an important indicator of outcomes http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3453/Small-lead-for-No-but-referendum-result-still-looks-extremely-close.aspx …
(Last time - I promise!)
I suspect that when the history of the Scottish independence referendum campaign is written neither of the official “designated lead organisations” will come out of it shining.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-better-together-learned-too-late
Avg Yes 47.92
Avg Turnout 82.95
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php
DYOR
Scotland deeply split and angry, more and more baubles offered to them but no compensating common sense offered to England, a divided union that looks fractured and faces a very uncertain period of constituional argument. Not a great day. A YES would have been alot cleaner.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/18/Former-Tory-candidate-to-stand-for-UKIP-in-2015/
Sorry, but I wasn't very good at it after all
Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.
Get a grip of yourself man.
An investigation has been launched after a woman died in an ambulance queuing outside a hospital.
It has been reported the woman may have been waiting in the vehicle outside Morriston Hospital in Swansea, south Wales, for up to 40 minutes.
Her death came as the British Medical Association (BMA) said the NHS in Wales was facing "imminent meltdown".
http://news.sky.com/story/1337888/patient-dies-in-hospital-ambulance-queue
Personally I'd have preferred a yes. It would make the economic fantasists face themselves in the mirror eventually.
I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)
After a mammoth campaign, lasting 2 years, I would expect politicians to have provided me with clear idea of what awaits if I either vote Yes or No.
The Scots are being asked to choose between two pigs in pokes.
They are being asked to decide who is the bigger confidence trickster, Yes or No.
After two years of campaigning, I would have expected Yes to have properly sorted out questions like currency and EU membership, and No to have properly sorted out what they mean by DevoMax.
Without that information, I have no basis for making a sensible decision.
So, if I had a vote, I'd probably abstain.
This is the way Great Britain ends: Not with a bang but a whinger
Just tipped a first ever toe in the water with a Ladbrokes Account.
First it tries to generate popup windows. Then it ends up in "casino". Then it has attached a bonus so it refuses to move it to Sportbook.
Pah.
She took the view that if you balance the worst possible outcome from both sides, which would you least like to happen, and how would you feel having voted for it.
Plus she felt that there was something a bit cultish surrounding Salmond/SNP.
Under labour? that cannot be.
Until a few minutes ago, skybet were offering 10/3 on Edinburgh voting no. Now it's 1/20.
Their politics trader needs to be taken out & shot.
Preceded by how to vote clip with some jobsworth speaking to the under 5s, about how to place a cross in a box.
Kindly re-read my 12:58 post.
The infographic I've seen says "Should Scotland BECOME an independent country"
That's not right, surely?
Turnip (copyright malcolmg)
twitter.com/Grassroots_Sco/status/512546718333034496/photo/1
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mV1-OkHQ9KQ#
Just so so bad all round.
Ipsos-Mori confirmed they used "be" in the question
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.
I suspect the borders will just edge this.
There's a little value in the 5/1 IMO (down from 7/1 yesterday)
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/willardfoxton2/100014223/scottish-referendum-should-political-polling-be-banned/
Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....
Marvellous .....
*Shrug*
So YES moving from 5.9 to 5.2 is the equivalent of NO moving from 1.204 to 1.238
YES 5.9 to 5.7 is NO 1.204 to 1.212
RT @alanjrenwick: #indyref referendum turnout graphic pic.twitter.com/VSGeiePQwN @AndrewSparrow @MSmithsonPB @britainelects @paulwaugh
Highest turnout in Scotland 1950 - 80.9%. Highest in UK 1959 - 84.0%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29251735
I've always said we should have back ground checks on the free movement of people from the EU.
46% tell @IpsosMORI final poll that NO will win 30% say YES
Didn't ICM say that at the last election people's expectations were actually closer to the final result than the official opinion polls?
Hence ICM's "wisdom poll" thing?
The result could be much more comfortable for NO than the official opinion polls have indicated?
I hope the Scots leave the swallying until later in the evening to accompany the popcorn.
Polling was heavy but not queuing out the door. When I was there I saw almost no youngsters voting. My son at the age of 20 has never voted before and was unsure of the process. If I had not guided him he would never have voted. I picked 79% and not sure we will get to 85%. Listening to the pop radio stations up here they are talking about the recent polls and this may convince some voters on both sides not to bother.
Mike (OGH) do you know if all the pollsters have asked the identical question to the ballot paper?
If NO has a wide margin then I will be interested to see if we ever find out how many NO voters simply felt too scared to admit it out loud.
Another one is "bus stance" in Scotland instead of "bus stand".