politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the fi
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All that happens then is both sides leak unofficial polling and canvassing.TheScreamingEagles said:Scottish referendum: should political polling be banned?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/willardfoxton2/100014223/scottish-referendum-should-political-polling-be-banned/
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Possible candidates, for sure.AndyJS said:
You don't think Orkney or Shetland might be possible candidates?Pong said:http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-no-vote
I suspect the borders will just edge this.
There's a little value in the 5/1 IMO (down from 7/1 yesterday)
But I'm not tempted by the odds.
I'm sure you've already seen this map (based on ipsos-mori data);
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/11/scottish-independence-voting-intention-across-scotland-mapped
The trick with this is to try to ignore the unpopulated rural areas & compare the relative yes % support in the towns, the borders does still seem (to me) to have the edge out of all the candidates for highest no%
It's certainly not a bad bet at 5/1.0 -
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.0 -
I will believe it when I see it. More likely it will be a manifesto commitment which means nothing as the Tories will lose with Dave "Vow" Cameron as leader.taffys said:A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
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Remind us how much Scottish oil is worth to the UK, a monetary value. Please.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.0 -
I put a bet on UKIP for Heywood with Betfair at 4 as soon as the market opened yesterday. Definite value IMO.0
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That really doesn't like as if they asked the same question: https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI?original_referer=http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/18/possibly-not-good-news-for-the-scottish-separatists-the-final-two-poll-to-be-completed-had-no-with-the-largest-leads/&tw_i=512557294601912320&tw_p=tweetembed
Mike?0 -
I didn't know that Andy, cheers - you learn something new everyday etc..AndyJS said:
Another one is "bus stance" in Scotland instead of "bus stand".SimonStClare said:While we are all waiting - Why is it 'polling place' in Scotland and 'polling station' in England?
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Or "bust stance" which is SNPese for "economic policy"AndyJS said:
I don't know but "Polling station" has a slightly colonial feel about it, and the Scots tend to shy away from anything with those connotations. "Polling place" is more clear and neutral.SimonStClare said:While we are all waiting - Why is it 'polling place' in Scotland and 'polling station' in England?
Another one is "bus stance" in Scotland instead of "bus stand".
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From today's FT:AllyPally_Rob said:Thought Gordon Browns speech yesterday was brilliant. Maybe this campaign will convince some of the Labour 'Big Beasts' to head to Holyrood. The current Labour offering especially Johann Lamont don't strike me as the most inspiring team.
"Mr Brown hinted last week that he might consider a return to frontline politics in Scotland to fight Mr Salmond in the Scottish Parliament"
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I agree. The question certainly seems to favour Yes as far as the hovering pencils are concerned.audreyanne said:
If so that's significant. Ever since Faisal Islam posted the photo of the ballot paper I've been worried. 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' seems to beg the answer 'Yes.' It's such a bland looking question, and quite hard to argue against. Well, yep, we should all be independent in a way. 'Be' rather than 'become' is also very different.Hugh said:Er what was the wording on this final Mori poll?
The infographic I've seen says "Should Scotland BECOME an independent country"
That's not right, surely?
Mike (OGH) do you know if all the pollsters have asked the identical question to the ballot paper?
Should my country be independent, well, duh, of course it should kinda thing.0 -
Er yes Beverley ...... this is precisely what was meant when we were referring to "Shy Nos".Beverley_C said:
I have wondered if the reporting of bad temper and nastiness would influence polling. I could well believe that people were nervous about saying "NO" and said either "YES" or "DK".GIN1138 said:This is quite interesting:
....
The result could be much more comfortable for NO than the official opinion polls have indicated?
If NO has a wide margin then I will be interested to see if we ever find out how many NO voters simply felt too scared to admit it out loud.0 -
You are mistaken, the ones I have shown aren't sportsbook, they are the exchange.MikeSmithson said:
Could you be careful with Betfair prices. The ones you show are the Sportsbook ones which serious punters avoid like the plague. The exchange ones are best guide.isam said:UKIP trade at 6/1 on Betfair for H&M.. 8/1 with Hills, you may as well get on now before the other firms go up 5/1
Be careful!!
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Go Gordon!Neil said:
From today's FT:AllyPally_Rob said:Thought Gordon Browns speech yesterday was brilliant. Maybe this campaign will convince some of the Labour 'Big Beasts' to head to Holyrood. The current Labour offering especially Johann Lamont don't strike me as the most inspiring team.
"Mr Brown hinted last week that he might consider a return to frontline politics in Scotland to fight Mr Salmond in the Scottish Parliament"0 -
Their sportsbook is weird. Sometimes their odds don't seem to reflect the exchange & can even be arbed against it.MikeSmithson said:
Could you be careful with Betfair prices. The ones you show are the Sportsbook ones which serious punters avoid like the plague. The exchange ones are best guide.isam said:UKIP trade at 6/1 on Betfair for H&M.. 8/1 with Hills, you may as well get on now before the other firms go up 5/1
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Even if you allot the oil revenue to the Scottish government, Scotland is still a net taker from the Treasury.TheWatcher said:
Remind us how much Scottish oil is worth to the UK, a monetary value. Please.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.
http://www.isitfair.co.uk/reports/public/oe ukpublicfinance.pdf0 -
You mean apart from the attempted assault of a No supporter by a Yes campaigner and the pro-Yes graffiti on the outside of a polling station....hamiltonace said:BTW. No evidence that the poll is being conducted in anything other than a cordial manner. No intimidation from either side.
There is evidence - it might not be major violence, but stuff is still happening.0 -
With plenty of chips on each shoulder.Luckyguy1983 said:0 -
Most economists don't know what they are talking about, but they try to kid us that they do. Astrologists are better at forecasting than economists.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.
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UKIP - BetfairMikeSmithson said:
Could you be careful with Betfair prices. The ones you show are the Sportsbook ones which serious punters avoid like the plague. The exchange ones are best guide.isam said:UKIP trade at 6/1 on Betfair for H&M.. 8/1 with Hills, you may as well get on now before the other firms go up 5/1
Total matched on this event:£206
Betting summary - Volume:£66
Last price matched: 4.20 -
Well, yes, that certainly is the logical implication of that rather existentially negative approach. As it happened, John Reid mistakenly used the more philosophically tenable approach in his speech the other day - if you don't know don't vote - and he had to be 'corrected' by the spin doctors afterwards!timmo said:
Does that mean if you do know vote Yes?Carnyx said:
Don't forget the mid-upper gunner will need extra ammo. BTW, see if this is being handed out by BT - will be interested to know if it is true.Smarmeron said:I am currently waiting on my armed escort to take me to the polling station.
I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)
twitter.com/Grassroots_Sco/status/512546718333034496/photo/1
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Salmond vs Brown FMQ's would be quite something, especially compared to Milliband vs May (shudder at the thought)Neil said:
From today's FT:AllyPally_Rob said:Thought Gordon Browns speech yesterday was brilliant. Maybe this campaign will convince some of the Labour 'Big Beasts' to head to Holyrood. The current Labour offering especially Johann Lamont don't strike me as the most inspiring team.
"Mr Brown hinted last week that he might consider a return to frontline politics in Scotland to fight Mr Salmond in the Scottish Parliament"0 -
So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?0 -
Betfair sportsbook aren't even up with Heywood & Middleton prices, I think indy ref fever has addled Mikes brainPong said:
Their sportsbook is weird. Sometimes their odds don't seem to reflect the exchange & can even be arbed against it.MikeSmithson said:
Could you be careful with Betfair prices. The ones you show are the Sportsbook ones which serious punters avoid like the plague. The exchange ones are best guide.isam said:UKIP trade at 6/1 on Betfair for H&M.. 8/1 with Hills, you may as well get on now before the other firms go up 5/1
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Speaking as someone who's lived through one, they'll find it's neither the windfall nor the reward for their imagined sagacity they imagine.CopperSulphate said:
The idea of a property price crash probably isn't that scary to the millions of people priced out of ever owning a home.SeanT said:
A YES could easily kick off an extremely nasty recession, a property price crash, you name it.Patrick said:So it looks like we're going to get the worst possible outcome - a narrow NO.
Scotland deeply split and angry, more and more baubles offered to them but no compensating common sense offered to England, a divided union that looks fractured and faces a very uncertain period of constituional argument. Not a great day. A YES would have been alot cleaner.
So for all the constitutional niceties - fuck that.
Let's avoid economic meltdown, and then try and fix the politics later.
In a property crash, the price of renting rockets because its value has just sea-changed. Renting insulates you from capital loss, so obviously it's going to be worth more and cost more. If you don't want to pay your inflating rent, your only other option is to buy. At that point you're part of the crash - you have no way of knowing for how long values will fall.
This squeezes renters' ability to raise a deposit - whatever they had as a saveable surplus gets swallowed up in higher rent.
From the opposite direction, mortgage lenders squeeze them too. In a falling market they value properties very low, and offer correspondingly lower LTV.
So if you can't afford a house when it's £300k and a 20% deposit is needed, you won't be able to afford it when it's £250k but a 40% deposit is needed, either. By the time you can, so can everyone, and the crash is over.
Even if you could afford it, the supply of properties falls away. Anyone selling to trade up has to find costs and stamp duty of equity; which, if reduced enough, makes any such move much harder.
In 1989 to 1994 there were bargains to be had, but they were rare, and available only to chain-free cash buyers. It was, if anything, even more of a rich man's market than what we have now.
Careful what you wish for, etc.
The most neutral response to crash risk is to pay down the mortgage faster than the house's price is crashing.0 -
TGOHF said:Luckyguy1983 said:0
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HahaTGOHF said:
With plenty of chips on each shoulder.Luckyguy1983 said:0 -
More than a little rich coming from the individual who (and I'm still not sure you're not a spoof) is campaigning for the Union to break up because of some silly yahs you met whilst at uni who made you feel inadequate for not speaking the Queen's English. You literally couldn't make it up.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.
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UKIP didn't win a single ward in the constituency only four months ago. If voters didn't want to 'protest' then, I don't see why they would now in a more meaningful election.AndyJS said:I put a bet on UKIP for Heywood with Betfair at 4 as soon as the market opened yesterday. Definite value IMO.
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Definitely option 1. If you try to go to sleep while the results are coming in you'll probably end up getting no sleep at all. It'll be a case of "I'll just watch one more result" throughout the night.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?0 -
I have said several times that I believe it will be a narrow YES or an outright NO. In the graph thingy that was up yesterday I gave YES 39% of the vote.peter_from_putney said:Er yes Beverley ...... this is precisely what was meant when we were referring to "Shy Nos".
I know it is not shoe related, but that is not a problem for me because ina post YES Scotland they will not be able to afford shoes. At present they cannot even afford underwear for under their kilts so shoes will be right out.0 -
Um. I agree with the above. But the YES campaign have still been misleading. Economists, like everyone else, have a range of views. There must be 30+ Nobel Prize winning economists able to refer an opinion on an independent Scotland. Finding one - Stiglitz - to say its a good idea is unsurprising, especially given his hard-left turn in recent years. A more complete picture comes from looking at where the weight of economic opinion lies. And this is very much that independence is anything from a bad to a disastrous idea.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.
The YES campaign have nevertheless been very effective with their tactics; creating a new reality of a low risk transition to statehood, married to a (contradictory) set of hopes & dreams. It will be an incredible victory if YES succeeds. And I think there is a pretty good chance of that happening...0 -
Source fir above (BBC source inside this)Carnyx said:
Well, yes, that certainly is the logical implication of that rather existentially negative approach. As it happened, John Reid mistakenly used the more philosophically tenable approach in his speech the other day - if you don't know don't vote - and he had to be 'corrected' by the spin doctors afterwards!timmo said:
Does that mean if you do know vote Yes?Carnyx said:
Don't forget the mid-upper gunner will need extra ammo. BTW, see if this is being handed out by BT - will be interested to know if it is true.Smarmeron said:I am currently waiting on my armed escort to take me to the polling station.
I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)
twitter.com/Grassroots_Sco/status/512546718333034496/photo/1
http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-simple-misunderstanding/
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It wouldn't be surprising if men under 50 vote Yes by around 10-15 points and women over 50 do the reverse.0
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Hugh said:
So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?
I am working normal business hours, going to bed at 11pm as usual and going to sleep until the alarm goes off at 6.30am.
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He probably follows PB. I pointed out a couple of days ago that the only people who profit (mightily) from a divorce are lawyers.Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.0 -
That asks some interesting governance questions about whether unicameral devolved Parliaments in Holyrood and Cardiff, and their support services, are fit for purpose.AllyPally_Rob said:
Salmond vs Brown FMQ's would be quite something, especially compared to Milliband vs May (shudder at the thought)Neil said:
From today's FT:
"Mr Brown hinted last week that he might consider a return to frontline politics in Scotland to fight Mr Salmond in the Scottish Parliament"
I'm not convinced.
Eg
Manipulating of committees to prevent awkward scrutiny.
Politicisaton of Scottish Civil Service.
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I think the final result will come through between 7 and 9am so you won't miss it.Beverley_C said:Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?
I am working normal business hours, going to bed at 11pm as usual and going to sleep until the alarm goes off at 6.30am.0 -
Martin Boon @martinboon 53s
I can confirm that @ICMResearch is not doing an exit poll. Was asked but unless done properly not worth doing at all in my view.0 -
An intriguing tweet:
Dr Leah @DrLeahTotton · 1 hr
In the case of a 'yes' vote, Dr Leah Clinics will be offering 50% off the removal of any #UnionJack tattoos made obsolete by #indyref
However, this little movie is genuinely striking if perhaps not always unexpected in terms of geographical location. Bath seems well represented, though surprisingly not Corby.
twitter.com/Trendsmap/status/512580603200290818/photo/10 -
The idea that the City of London depends on Scottish oil money is laughable. Commodities trading is only a very small fraction of activity that goes on there.Luckyguy1983 said:
More than a little rich coming from the individual who (and I'm still not sure you're not a spoof) is campaigning for the Union to break up because of some silly yahs you met whilst at uni who made you feel inadequate for not speaking the Queen's English. You literally couldn't make it up.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.0 -
The result in the local elections was IIRC Lab 40%, UKIP 24%, Con 21%. It's possible Tory voters will switch to UKIP in the by-election as a one-off protest vote.Artist said:
UKIP didn't win a single ward in the constituency only four months ago. If voters didn't want to 'protest' then, I don't see why they would now in a more meaningful election.AndyJS said:I put a bet on UKIP for Heywood with Betfair at 4 as soon as the market opened yesterday. Definite value IMO.
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Hmmm... two politicians who both seem to be all transmit but no receive.....Neil said:
"Mr Brown hinted last week that he might consider a return to frontline politics in Scotland to fight Mr Salmond in the Scottish Parliament"
Not much hope for consensus there0 -
To be honest, I don't care what the economists say. I don't think the current phase of neo-classical economics is really a science. The maths is outdated and the macro assumptions in relation to money creation are just wrong.
The YES campaign have nevertheless been very effective with their tactics; creating a new reality of a low risk transition to statehood, married to a (contradictory) set of hopes & dreams. It will be an incredible victory if YES succeeds. And I think there is a pretty good chance of that happening...
As for Nobel prizes. These are not like the other Nobel prizes, they just have the same name and are dished out by the Bank of Sweden and so they are for services rendered to the financial elite.
Hardly any of these people new the financial crash was coming and I think they know about as little about the future of Scottish independence as they did about that crash (thanks to the fundamental flaw caused by economic dogma similar to the mythical flat-earth society).
The economy is organic - it is you and me and everyone working to make things and buy things. Imagining it is about derivatives, fraudulent second-hand pieces of paper and a bunch of co-opted numpties in a room called the Monetary Policy Committee is madness.
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.
In a fiscal sense, the story is good. With 10% GDP higher in Scotland than England per capita we'll survive the transition which will be difficult for a while but hardly insurmountable. Our biggest danger is a crash in sterling caused by rUK debt / bond collapse. I'd be out of sterling in a flash..!
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If anyone is wanting to get a last minute bet on high turnout, corals 11/4 on 85-90% is a decent punt. It'll be cut to ~2/1 soon, IMO.0
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GBP at a 12 month high against the EURO and continuing to rise against the USD. Sentiment or does someone know something?0
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Betfair have opened a new turnout market with higher bands (no money up there yet)0
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Richard @Richx183 31mFinancier said:GBP at a 12 month high against the EURO and continuing to rise against the USD. Sentiment or does someone know something?
Pound strong. RBS shares up. Spreads implied probability for No 84.5%. Betfair 82.64%. For Yes to win means a lot of smart people are wrong.0 -
Chart technicals warn of impending moves. Last week gave some strong buy signals for sterling. This week has seen those signals confirmed.Financier said:GBP at a 12 month high against the EURO and continuing to rise against the USD. Sentiment or does someone know something?
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Sentiment or does someone know something?
Personally I've never bought the 'sell sterling' argument, either on the basis of a no or a yes0 -
Translation "someone wanted to do it on the cheap"........TheScreamingEagles said:Martin Boon @martinboon 53s
I can confirm that @ICMResearch is not doing an exit poll. Was asked but unless done properly not worth doing at all in my view.
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More than a little rich coming from the individual who (and I'm still not sure you're not a spoof) is campaigning for the Union to break up because of some silly yahs you met whilst at uni who made you feel inadequate for not speaking the Queen's English. You literally couldn't make it up.
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!
Na, that example was merely pointing out the hierarchical tendencies of the English class system that goes along with it. It does rankle and it does prove there was never a Union. To say that is my reason for voting Yes is disingenuous - I am not voting against anything much as you'd like to believe that. My reasons for voting for independence are many. I won't bore myself by attempting that essay on a board full of people who, let's face it, are far too indoctrinated to be capable of understanding that world view. Yes, the cognitive dissonance on this board is impressive. The squirming and the vicious, spiteful justifications and accusations are incredibly sad. A Yes vote might just do you all a favour and burst your balloon and allow you to be liked around the world again..
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Unless they get the legislation on the statute book before May 2015, this is so much hot air. I don't trust either the Tories or the Lib Dems to deliver and Labour certainly won't.taffys said:A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
It should have been made part of the Vow. Instead, Cameron - who has all the strategic nous of a blancmange - got stitched up by Brown and Scottish Labour.
0 -
I am profoundly jealous of anyone who can decide to go to sleep when they want to. I'll be up from now until the result is confirmed because I have no other option - I won't sleep until it is decided, there'll be too much rushing around inside my head.0
-
At least all the schmucks know the politics of envy is alive and wellSeanT said:
It's 2pm on a workday. If you have the time to "sink a few beers nowish", then go to bed, you are either filthy rich yourself, or on generous disability benefits.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?
0 -
Most City workers I know work 70 hours plus a week, so they have a lot less flexibility than you apparently do.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?0 -
Turnout could be key but I think you could make arguments for the by-election turnout being higher (favouring Labour) or lower (favouring UKIP) than the locals.AndyJS said:
The result in the local elections was IIRC Lab 40%, UKIP 24%, Con 21%. It's possible Tory voters will switch to UKIP in the by-election as a one-off protest vote.Artist said:
UKIP didn't win a single ward in the constituency only four months ago. If voters didn't want to 'protest' then, I don't see why they would now in a more meaningful election.AndyJS said:I put a bet on UKIP for Heywood with Betfair at 4 as soon as the market opened yesterday. Definite value IMO.
0 -
Nothing wrong with a few afternoon brews. Would be doing likewise if I didn't have to pick up the kids..isam said:
At least all the schmucks know the politics of envy is alive and wellSeanT said:
It's 2pm on a workday. If you have the time to "sink a few beers nowish", then go to bed, you are either filthy rich yourself, or on generous disability benefits.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?0 -
Most 'City schmucks' are tied to working the same hours that the markets are open, and more.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?
0 -
The only thing more mental than Betfair's original market topping out at 75.01%+ was the people offering better than evens at that price.Richard_Nabavi said:Betfair have opened a new turnout market with higher bands (no money up there yet)
0 -
I agree that economics isn't really a science.BlackDouglas said:
The economy is organic - it is you and me and everyone working to make things and buy things. Imagining it is about derivatives, fraudulent second-hand pieces of paper and a bunch of co-opted numpties in a room called the Monetary Policy Committee is madness.
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.
In a fiscal sense, the story is good. With 10% GDP higher in Scotland than England per capita we'll survive the transition which will be difficult for a while but hardly insurmountable. Our biggest danger is a crash in sterling caused by rUK debt / bond collapse. I'd be out of sterling in a flash..!
But that doesn't mean economic arguments aren't very important; they are, over-time, by far the main drivers of what happens to people & indeed states.
I cannot see a smooth economic transition to independence for Scotland. I think one is possible, but it won't happen. The 'good' possible transition was set out by Jeffrey Sachs (I think) yesterday (can't find the link, but note that he was at best neutral on Scottish independence). It involves the rUK being for want-of-a-better word, 'nice' i.e. agreeing to a currency union, helping with the EU accession, not trying to keep the Shetland islands etc.
But I just can't see the politics in the rUK allowing this. There will be too much anger. And even accepting the Scottish independence white paper's argument that such steps are somehow in the best interest's of rUK (which I doubt), this anger will prevent any such outcome. The negotiations will be cold, hard and driven by the rUK's (perception of its) national interest. Furthermore, the rUK - at least as far as I can see - holds most of the cards.
Both Scotland and the rUK will be in for a nasty and unpleasant few years until things are resolved. But it will be much worse for Scotland. Still, the SNP won't care & again, they have campaigned well enough to have a pretty good chance of winning...0 -
You've been assuring us it was all decided for weeks!SouthamObserver said:I won't sleep until it is decided
0 -
That nice Thacker woman, the one who took foster kids away from a decent family because they were UKIP supporters, and heavily criticised for her role in the disgusting Rotherham scandal, has gone sick:
http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/crime/joyce-thacker-goes-off-work-on-sick-leave-rotherham-council-confirm-1-68475770 -
Yes, good wasn't it?Alistair said:
The only thing more mental than Betfair's original market topping out at 75.01%+ was the people offering better than evens at that price.Richard_Nabavi said:Betfair have opened a new turnout market with higher bands (no money up there yet)
0 -
Or a sponging student.SeanT said:
It's 2pm on a workday. If you have the time to "sink a few beers nowish", then go to bed, you are either filthy rich yourself, or on generous disability benefits.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?0 -
Na, that example was merely pointing out the hierarchical tendencies of the English class system that goes along with it. It does rankle and it does prove there was never a Union. To say that is my reason for voting Yes is disingenuous - I am not voting against anything much as you'd like to believe that. My reasons for voting for independence are many. I won't bore myself by attempting that essay on a board full of people who, let's face it, are far too indoctrinated to be capable of understanding that world view. Yes, the cognitive dissonance on this board is impressive. The squirming and the vicious, spiteful justifications and accusations are incredibly sad. A Yes vote might just do you all a favour and burst your balloon and allow you to be liked around the world again..BlackDouglas said:
More than a little rich coming from the individual who (and I'm still not sure you're not a spoof) is campaigning for the Union to break up because of some silly yahs you met whilst at uni who made you feel inadequate for not speaking the Queen's English. You literally couldn't make it up.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!
We are liked around the world. We're very popular in the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. From India to China to Nigeria, the newly rich of the emerging world aspire to become British gentlemen with Anglophile cultural habits. It's mainly in Europe where we don't have friends.0 -
You've said in previous posts that if Scotland goes we ought to separate the rest of the UK too haven't you?SouthamObserver said:I am profoundly jealous of anyone who can decide to go to sleep when they want to. I'll be up from now until the result is confirmed because I have no other option - I won't sleep until it is decided, there'll be too much rushing around inside my head.
... and you cant sleep for thoughts rushing around your head at the prospective loss of part of the Kingdom you love?
You're in good company...
"Powell's ambition to be Governor-General of India crumbled in February 1947, when Prime Minister Attlee announced that Indian independence was imminent. Powell was so shocked by the change of policy that he spent the whole night after it was announced walking the streets of London, trying to take it in. He came to terms with it by becoming fiercely anti-imperialist, believing that once India had gone the whole empire should follow it. This logical absolutism explained his later indifference to the Suez crisis, his contempt for the Commonwealth, and his urging that Britain should scrap any remaining pretence that she was a world power. "
http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/Enoch_Powell
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What I find bizarre is the concern about the WLQ. A true breach of the WLQ happens so rarely in reality, and although the cases of the student fees and NHS were important and pretty bad, there is a lot more activity in Parliament than that.Cyclefree said:
Unless they get the legislation on the statute book before May 2015, this is so much hot air. I don't trust either the Tories or the Lib Dems to deliver and Labour certainly won't.taffys said:A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
It should have been made part of the Vow. Instead, Cameron - who has all the strategic nous of a blancmange - got stitched up by Brown and Scottish Labour.
Surely it would be political suicide for Labour and the LDs to try it on again?
Any other solution than a gents agreement risks introducing new problems.
0 -
He will "never have been so happy to be wrong"Neil said:
You've been assuring us it was all decided for weeks!SouthamObserver said:I won't sleep until it is decided
0 -
Crumbs, Mr. O., have you thought of talking to someone about that problem? Doesn't sound healthy to me. Unless you are going to be playing the markets minute by minute, that is a lot of nervous energy expended on something you can't affect. Going without proper sleep is a doubleplus ungood habit.SouthamObserver said:I am profoundly jealous of anyone who can decide to go to sleep when they want to. I'll be up from now until the result is confirmed because I have no other option - I won't sleep until it is decided, there'll be too much rushing around inside my head.
0 -
I got on at 2.02 but in a fit of stupidity, I hedge out on 70.01 to 75. Still, not too bad a guaranteed profit.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, good wasn't it?Alistair said:
The only thing more mental than Betfair's original market topping out at 75.01%+ was the people offering better than evens at that price.Richard_Nabavi said:Betfair have opened a new turnout market with higher bands (no money up there yet)
0 -
Or a freelance writer who prefers unorthodox hours.SeanT said:
It's 2pm on a workday. If you have the time to "sink a few beers nowish", then go to bed, you are either filthy rich yourself, or on generous disability benefits.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?0 -
We seem to have plenty of friends in Europe. In fact many of them like us so much that they come and live here.Socrates said:We are liked around the world. We're very popular in the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. From India to China to Nigeria, the newly rich of the emerging world aspire to become British gentlemen with Anglophile cultural habits. It's mainly in Europe where we don't have friends.
0 -
Well I hope she doesn't have something life threatening obviously, even people that are useless at their job get ill. But I fear this is another slippery way of getting out of apologising for mistakes a la Shaun Wright.nigel4england said:That nice Thacker woman, the one who took foster kids away from a decent family because they were UKIP supporters, and heavily criticised for her role in the disgusting Rotherham scandal, has gone sick:
http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/crime/joyce-thacker-goes-off-work-on-sick-leave-rotherham-council-confirm-1-6847577
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Off licences close between 2pm and 6pm don't they? The posh onesTheWatcher said:
Or a sponging student.SeanT said:
It's 2pm on a workday. If you have the time to "sink a few beers nowish", then go to bed, you are either filthy rich yourself, or on generous disability benefits.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?0 -
Quite. If Yes is lost, will it be Salmond's "don't scare the horses" strategy that deserves the blame? While he's carried C2DE with his free sunshine, I suspect a lot of ABs have been put off by the incoherent mess on currency. Much better to have said "it'll be tricky at first, but we'll do it" - which defuses his opponent's attacks, than "they're bluffing" and "I'm right, they're wrong".BlackDouglas said:
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.
0 -
It's a basic question of fairness. If England doesn't get a say on devolved matters in Scotland, your MPs shouldn't get a say on the same matters in England. Given the untrustworthiness of politicians, a gentleman's agreement is unacceptable. No more Scottish influence should be allowed on any issue covered by devomax. While we're at it, we can return to equal spending levels in Scotland and England.Carnyx said:
What I find bizarre is the concern about the WLQ. A true breach of the WLQ happens so rarely in reality, and although the cases of the student fees and NHS were important and pretty bad, there is a lot more activity in Parliament than that.Cyclefree said:
Unless they get the legislation on the statute book before May 2015, this is so much hot air. I don't trust either the Tories or the Lib Dems to deliver and Labour certainly won't.taffys said:A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
It should have been made part of the Vow. Instead, Cameron - who has all the strategic nous of a blancmange - got stitched up by Brown and Scottish Labour.
Surely it would be political suicide for Labour and the LDs to try it on again?
Any other solution than a gents agreement risks introducing new problems.-1 -
In the sticks a lot of people still work from 9 to 5/6, so they'll be able to go to bed for 7 hours before the results start coming in at 2am.0
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I do not need that much sleep. If I get five hours most nights of the week I am fine. It's been the same for years - ever since we had kids, in fact (first one 24 years ago). They changed my sleep patterns for ever, the selfish gits.HurstLlama said:
Crumbs, Mr. O., have you thought of talking to someone about that problem? Doesn't sound healthy to me. Unless you are going to be playing the markets minute by minute, that is a lot of nervous energy expended on something you can't affect. Going without proper sleep is a doubleplus ungood habit.SouthamObserver said:I am profoundly jealous of anyone who can decide to go to sleep when they want to. I'll be up from now until the result is confirmed because I have no other option - I won't sleep until it is decided, there'll be too much rushing around inside my head.
0 -
"In the Autumn of 1992 Powell was diagnosed as suffering from Parkinson's disease. He fought the affliction with his customary resolution, despite mounting incapacity. In 1994 he published the St. Mathew's Gospel. During the final years of his life he managed occasional pieces of journalism and co-operated in a BBC documentary about his life in 1995. When Labour won the 1997 General Election Powell told his wife that the electorate had voted to break up the United Kingdom. Powell began, but did not complete, work on a study of the Gospel of John. It was unfinished at the time of his death, aged 85, at 4:30am on 8 February 1998 at the King Edward VII Hospital for Officers in London"
http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/Enoch_Powell0 -
She should be resigning. She was more concerned with harassing people for their political views than actually paying attention to the mass rape on her watch. £130k a year, paid out of our taxes, when she's incapable of doing her job. Outrageous.isam said:
Well I hope she doesn't have something life threatening obviously, even people that are useless at their job get ill. But I fear this is another slippery way of getting out of apologising for mistakes a la Shaun Wright.nigel4england said:That nice Thacker woman, the one who took foster kids away from a decent family because they were UKIP supporters, and heavily criticised for her role in the disgusting Rotherham scandal, has gone sick:
http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/crime/joyce-thacker-goes-off-work-on-sick-leave-rotherham-council-confirm-1-6847577
0 -
Salmond has had a superb campaign whatever happens, YES was nowhere near winning a few months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Quite. If Yes is lost, will it be Salmond's "don't scare the horses" strategy that deserves the blame? While he's carried C2DE with his free sunshine, I suspect a lot of ABs have been put off by the incoherent mess on currency. Much better to have said "it'll be tricky at first, but we'll do it" - which defuses his opponent's attacks, than "they're bluffing" and "I'm right, they're wrong".BlackDouglas said:
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.
0 -
That rather depends on there being "gents" in Parliament, though.Carnyx said:
What I find bizarre is the concern about the WLQ. A true breach of the WLQ happens so rarely in reality, and although the cases of the student fees and NHS were important and pretty bad, there is a lot more activity in Parliament than that.Cyclefree said:
Unless they get the legislation on the statute book before May 2015, this is so much hot air. I don't trust either the Tories or the Lib Dems to deliver and Labour certainly won't.taffys said:A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
It should have been made part of the Vow. Instead, Cameron - who has all the strategic nous of a blancmange - got stitched up by Brown and Scottish Labour.
Surely it would be political suicide for Labour and the LDs to try it on again?
Any other solution than a gents agreement risks introducing new problems.
0 -
FPT
National anthems. Vindaloo being the obvious choice for England. However, for the United Kingdom (be she with or without our friends in the North), the undying optimist in me gives you 'All Together Now' by The Farm0 -
This isn't the first time this has happened with someone from Eastern Europe. What are the halfwits in Whitehall doing about it? Nothing it seems,Tykejohnno said:Alice Gross disappearance: Suspect Arnis Zalkalns has murder conviction
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29251735
I've always said we should have back ground checks on the free movement of people from the EU.0 -
Britain is the third most admired nation on earth.SeanT said:
We are liked around the world. We're very popular in the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. From India to China to Nigeria, the newly rich of the emerging world aspire to become British gentlemen with Anglophile cultural habits. It's mainly in Europe where we don't have friends.Socrates said:
Na, that example was merely pointing out the hierarchical tendencies of the English class system that goes along with it. It does rankle and it does prove there was never a Union. To say that is my reason for voting Yes is disingenuous - I am not voting against anything much as you'd like to believe that. My reasons for voting for independence are many. I won't bore myself by attempting that essay on a board full of people who, let's face it, are far too indoctrinated to be capable of understanding that world view. Yes, the cognitive dissonance on this board is impressive. The squirming and the vicious, spiteful justifications and accusations are incredibly sad. A Yes vote might just do you all a favour and burst your balloon and allow you to be liked around the world again..BlackDouglas said:
More than a little rich coming from the individual who (and I'm still not sure you're not a spoof) is campaigning for the Union to break up because of some silly yahs you met whilst at uni who made you feel inadequate for not speaking the Queen's English. You literally couldn't make it up.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22624104
DON'T Confuse a Nat with facts - it only upsets them.
I'd have thought you'd have learned that by now...
0 -
Amusingly, if you ignore the don't know's from that poll it gives a result of 60.5% for NO - exactly in line with JackW's prediction.GIN1138 said:This is quite interesting:
46% tell @IpsosMORI final poll that NO will win 30% say YES
Didn't ICM say that at the last election people's expectations were actually closer to the final result than the official opinion polls?
Hence ICM's "wisdom poll" thing?
The result could be much more comfortable for NO than the official opinion polls have indicated?0 -
But would Sturgeon have had a better one?DanSmith said:
Salmond has had a superb campaign whatever happensCarlottaVance said:
Quite. If Yes is lost, will it be Salmond's "don't scare the horses" strategy that deserves the blame? While he's carried C2DE with his free sunshine, I suspect a lot of ABs have been put off by the incoherent mess on currency. Much better to have said "it'll be tricky at first, but we'll do it" - which defuses his opponent's attacks, than "they're bluffing" and "I'm right, they're wrong".BlackDouglas said:
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.
If Yes is lost because of women voters.....
0 -
Socrates said:
It's a basic question of fairness. If England doesn't get a say on devolved matters in Scotland, your MPs shouldn't get a say on the same matters in England. Given the untrustworthiness of politicians, a gentleman's agreement is unacceptable. No more Scottish influence should be allowed on any issue covered by devomax. While we're at it, we can return to equal spending levels in Scotland and England.Carnyx said:
What I find bizarre is the concern about the WLQ. A true breach of the WLQ happens so rarely in reality, and although the cases of the student fees and NHS were important and pretty bad, there is a lot more activity in Parliament than that.Cyclefree said:
Unless they get the legislation on the statute book before May 2015, this is so much hot air. I don't trust either the Tories or the Lib Dems to deliver and Labour certainly won't.taffys said:A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
It should have been made part of the Vow. Instead, Cameron - who has all the strategic nous of a blancmange - got stitched up by Brown and Scottish Labour.
Surely it would be political suicide for Labour and the LDs to try it on again?
Any other solution than a gents agreement risks introducing new problems.
Point taken, in both cases. But, without an English Pmt of comparable rank, the asymmetry makes it hard to legislate without more problems.Cyclefree said:
[snip]
That rather depends on there being "gents" in Parliament, though.
The very existence of a gents agreement, of course, creates the possibility that it will be broken - but also lays down a line to define disapproval and attract opprobrium.
It does seem genuinely odd that there is no such agreement, given, for instance, the use of pairing. Was one never considered? Yet if the SNP can have a unilateral self-denying ordinance ...?
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DanSmith said:
Salmond has had a superb campaign whatever happens, YES was nowhere near winning a few months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Quite. If Yes is lost, will it be Salmond's "don't scare the horses" strategy that deserves the blame? While he's carried C2DE with his free sunshine, I suspect a lot of ABs have been put off by the incoherent mess on currency. Much better to have said "it'll be tricky at first, but we'll do it" - which defuses his opponent's attacks, than "they're bluffing" and "I'm right, they're wrong".BlackDouglas said:
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.
He would certainly shift a lot of snake oil.DanSmith said:
Salmond has had a superb campaign whatever happens, YES was nowhere near winning a few months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Quite. If Yes is lost, will it be Salmond's "don't scare the horses" strategy that deserves the blame? While he's carried C2DE with his free sunshine, I suspect a lot of ABs have been put off by the incoherent mess on currency. Much better to have said "it'll be tricky at first, but we'll do it" - which defuses his opponent's attacks, than "they're bluffing" and "I'm right, they're wrong".BlackDouglas said:
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.0 -
In the real world alcohol consumption in the UK fell to a 23 year low last year.volcanopete said:I hope to hear the good people in Scotland have behaved impeccably on election day and that electoral staff are given the due respect their code of conduct deserves.The role of alcohol in the UK,including Scotland,needs to be re-examined and stricter regulation to move from Hogarth's gin alley to beer lane seems to be needed.Blair's deregulation has been devastating for public health.I have observed what might be called a collective alcohol psychosis,paranoid grandiosity or grandiose paranoia.
I hope the Scots leave the swallying until later in the evening to accompany the popcorn.0 -
"Ladbrokes now offer best #indyref odds for NO at 2/9.
79% of all bets taken today have been for YES.
ow.ly/BDKOr"
https://mobile.twitter.com/LadPolitics0 -
So a polling station has graffiti daubed on it
Freedom Vote Yes, no Voters will be shot
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx0bdy-CQAIXGRA.jpg:large0 -
Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.0
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No idea either. But remember that the recent polls - showing NO slightly ahead - also implied a very high 90%+ turnout...SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.
But an alternative theory is doing the rounds: apathetic NO voters are also turning out, in unexpectedly large numbers (as the IPSOS poll implies). So a bigger turnout is not the miracle pill for YES.
Eeeek. Who knows.0 -
My instinct is that higher turnout favours the No side. The Yes side were always going to turn out. But lacklustre Nos could have stayed at home. They're not.SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.
But an alternative theory is doing the rounds: apathetic NO voters are also turning out, in unexpectedly large numbers (as the IPSOS poll implies). So a bigger turnout is not the miracle pill for YES.
Eeeek. Who knows.
Damn.
0 -
I believe the Conservative and Lib Dem MPs in Scotland don't vote on English matters, but the Labour MPs are of a lower moral standard.Carnyx said:Socrates said:
It's a basic question of fairness. If England doesn't get a say on devolved matters in Scotland, your MPs shouldn't get a say on the same matters in England. Given the untrustworthiness of politicians, a gentleman's agreement is unacceptable. No more Scottish influence should be allowed on any issue covered by devomax. While we're at it, we can return to equal spending levels in Scotland and England.Carnyx said:
What I find bizarre is the concern about the WLQ. A true breach of the WLQ happens so rarely in reality, and although the cases of the student fees and NHS were important and pretty bad, there is a lot more activity in Parliament than that.Cyclefree said:
Unless they get the legislation on the statute book before May 2015, this is so much hot air. I don't trust either the Tories or the Lib Dems to deliver and Labour certainly won't.taffys said:A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
It should have been made part of the Vow. Instead, Cameron - who has all the strategic nous of a blancmange - got stitched up by Brown and Scottish Labour.
Surely it would be political suicide for Labour and the LDs to try it on again?
Any other solution than a gents agreement risks introducing new problems.
Point taken, in both cases. But, without an English Pmt of comparable rank, the asymmetry makes it hard to legislate without more problems.Cyclefree said:
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That rather depends on there being "gents" in Parliament, though.
The very existence of a gents agreement, of course, creates the possibility that it will be broken - but also lays down a line to define disapproval and attract opprobrium.
It does seem genuinely odd that there is no such agreement, given, for instance, the use of pairing. Was one never considered? Yet if the SNP can have a unilateral self-denying ordinance ...?0 -
He would certainly shift a lot of snake oil.
Salmond has undoubtedly won the campaign, but when you whip up euphoria, you risk widespread disillusionment.
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There's zero new information to help gauge what overall turnout might be so those rumours are almost certainly baseless. I would have thought that the correlation would work the other way in any case.SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.0
