politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the fi
So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll for STV published yesterday evening and based on fieldwork carried out Monday and Tuesday.
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First and Yes!0
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If I was Scottish I'd have been a Yes -> No switcher in the last few days.0
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Separatists? The Nats don't like that term.0
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If my wife is anything to go by, then there will be a swing to NO.
She has been for a long time a YES supporter, but has become increasingly uneasy and finally jumped ship to NO last night.0 -
The two bits that stuck out from this polling
May2015 @May2015NS 21s
First-time voters make up 13% of Yes support, but 10% for No acc to @IpsosMORI. The new aren't just pro-indy: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/scottish-yes-and-myth-masses
Bobby Duffy @BobbyIpsosMORI · 14m
46% in Scotland expect No to win #indyref, 30% expect Yes - can be an important indicator of outcomes http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3453/Small-lead-for-No-but-referendum-result-still-looks-extremely-close.aspx …0 -
Go Gordon!0
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He'll rue the day......TheScreamingEagles said:Separatists? The Nats don't like that term.
(Last time - I promise!)
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Noooooooooooooooooo!0
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What in particular has made her uneasy?DaemonBarber said:If my wife is anything to go by, then there will be a swing to NO.
She has been for a long time a YES supporter, but has become increasingly uneasy and finally jumped ship to NO last night.0 -
Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?0
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Prof Tomkins analyses the two campaigns:
I suspect that when the history of the Scottish independence referendum campaign is written neither of the official “designated lead organisations” will come out of it shining.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/what-better-together-learned-too-late0 -
The PB Wisdom of the Crowds
Avg Yes 47.92
Avg Turnout 82.95
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php
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Actually, he's remarkably calm today - medicated, but calm ; )JackW said:Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?
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The 50% - 55% Yes band with Betfair has now gone out to 7.8, equivalent to approx 13/2 in old money.
DYOR0 -
What's Eck's Best Pal, Ruper Murdoch been tweeting today?0
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The mid-point between the two predictions is 43.9% [if I'm correct in remembering YES at 40.5% in the McARSE].SeanT said:
My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.JackW said:Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?
I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.0 -
We agreeSeanT said:
I think pb is in the ballpark with the YES vote, but I reckon turnout could easily be higher than 82TheScreamingEagles said:The PB Wisdom of the Crowds
Avg Yes 47.92
Avg Turnout 82.95
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/summary.php0 -
So it looks like we're going to get the worst possible outcome - a narrow NO.
Scotland deeply split and angry, more and more baubles offered to them but no compensating common sense offered to England, a divided union that looks fractured and faces a very uncertain period of constituional argument. Not a great day. A YES would have been alot cleaner.0 -
Gay ex Tory standing for ukip in South London
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/18/Former-Tory-candidate-to-stand-for-UKIP-in-2015/0 -
I wonder if David Cameron has drafted his resignation speech yet?
Sorry, but I wasn't very good at it after all0 -
You mean it's your final and official pb prediction before your next one after lunch.SeanT said:
My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.JackW said:Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?
I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.
Get a grip of yourself man.
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YES coming in...0
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O/T but this is boiling away whilst everyone is distracted elsewhere.
An investigation has been launched after a woman died in an ambulance queuing outside a hospital.
It has been reported the woman may have been waiting in the vehicle outside Morriston Hospital in Swansea, south Wales, for up to 40 minutes.
Her death came as the British Medical Association (BMA) said the NHS in Wales was facing "imminent meltdown".
http://news.sky.com/story/1337888/patient-dies-in-hospital-ambulance-queue0 -
Reality hurts...TheScreamingEagles said:Separatists? The Nats don't like that term.
Personally I'd have preferred a yes. It would make the economic fantasists face themselves in the mirror eventually.
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I am currently waiting on my armed escort to take me to the polling station.
I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)0 -
Nice to see you are self-aware, Hugh.Hugh said:I wonder if David Cameron has drafted his resignation speech yet?
Sorry, but I wasn't very good at it after all0 -
Thought Gordon Browns speech yesterday was brilliant. Maybe this campaign will convince some of the Labour 'Big Beasts' to head to Holyrood. The current Labour offering especially Johann Lamont don't strike me as the most inspiring team.0
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Good morning from Boston, USA. What's the latest?0
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Almost. NO 60.5% .. YES 39.5%OblitusSumMe said:
The mid-point between the two predictions is 43.9% [if I'm correct in remembering YES at 40.5% in the McARSE].SeanT said:
My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.JackW said:Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?
I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
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My own feeling -- if I were a Scot, would be one of rage.
After a mammoth campaign, lasting 2 years, I would expect politicians to have provided me with clear idea of what awaits if I either vote Yes or No.
The Scots are being asked to choose between two pigs in pokes.
They are being asked to decide who is the bigger confidence trickster, Yes or No.
After two years of campaigning, I would have expected Yes to have properly sorted out questions like currency and EU membership, and No to have properly sorted out what they mean by DevoMax.
Without that information, I have no basis for making a sensible decision.
So, if I had a vote, I'd probably abstain.
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This is the way Great Britain ends: Not with a bang but a whinger
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The idea of a property price crash probably isn't that scary to the millions of people priced out of ever owning a home.SeanT said:
A YES could easily kick off an extremely nasty recession, a property price crash, you name it.Patrick said:So it looks like we're going to get the worst possible outcome - a narrow NO.
Scotland deeply split and angry, more and more baubles offered to them but no compensating common sense offered to England, a divided union that looks fractured and faces a very uncertain period of constituional argument. Not a great day. A YES would have been alot cleaner.
So for all the constitutional niceties - fuck that.
Let's avoid economic meltdown, and then try and fix the politics later.0 -
Just tipped a first ever toe in the water with a Ladbrokes Account.
First it tries to generate popup windows. Then it ends up in "casino". Then it has attached a bonus so it refuses to move it to Sportbook.
Pah.0 -
She wan't convinced by supporting evidence from the YES side as to why the bad scenarios from NO side were unlikely/false. The volume of bad press and dissenting expert opinion shook her confidence.Richard_Nabavi said:
What in particular has made her uneasy?DaemonBarber said:If my wife is anything to go by, then there will be a swing to NO.
She has been for a long time a YES supporter, but has become increasingly uneasy and finally jumped ship to NO last night.
She took the view that if you balance the worst possible outcome from both sides, which would you least like to happen, and how would you feel having voted for it.
Plus she felt that there was something a bit cultish surrounding Salmond/SNP.
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Jack, I'm sorry but 'yes' is not going to make it to 40%. Maybe 39% if they are very lucky. All that devomax will turn out to have been an enormously pointless bribe.0
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Her death came as the British Medical Association (BMA) said the NHS in Wales was facing "imminent meltdown".
Under labour? that cannot be.0 -
Don't believe it, I'm being barred from logging on to Betfair. I didn't realise the USA was a country where they don't operate. I know France is.0
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lol
Until a few minutes ago, skybet were offering 10/3 on Edinburgh voting no. Now it's 1/20.
Their politics trader needs to be taken out & shot.0 -
Yes price has come in from 5.9 to 5.70
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Cardiff City need a new manager0
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OMG - Jeremy Vine has awful graphics displays to play with. Green for Yes, Red for No.
Preceded by how to vote clip with some jobsworth speaking to the under 5s, about how to place a cross in a box.0 -
Twas inevitable I fear. Who' d want the job????TheScreamingEagles said:Cardiff City need a new manager
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Ouch!JackW said:
You mean it's your final and official pb prediction before your next one after lunch.SeanT said:
My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.JackW said:Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?
I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.
Get a grip of yourself man.
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Have you been drinking your fathers hair restorative tonic .... again ?!?rcs1000 said:Jack, I'm sorry but 'yes' is not going to make it to 40%. Maybe 39% if they are very lucky. All that devomax will turn out to have been an enormously pointless bribe.
Kindly re-read my 12:58 post.
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There is no little liquidity on the Yes side that a few quid either way nudges it0
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Why is Betfair banned in the USA? I thought this was supposed to be the land of the free...0
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Er what was the wording on this final Mori poll?
The infographic I've seen says "Should Scotland BECOME an independent country"
That's not right, surely?0 -
Definitely - if this was a purely intellectual exercise I reckon Scotland would actually be better off independent. But its not, it'll become Salmond's personal fiefdom. Or at least it sort of feels that way...DaemonBarber said:
Plus she felt that there was something a bit cultish surrounding Salmond/SNP.0 -
"...so little..." - sorry0
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And you were his understudy ....GIN1138 said:
Ouch!JackW said:
You mean it's your final and official pb prediction before your next one after lunch.SeanT said:
My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.JackW said:Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?
I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.
Get a grip of yourself man.
Turnip (copyright malcolmg)
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Don't forget the mid-upper gunner will need extra ammo. BTW, see if this is being handed out by BT - will be interested to know if it is true.Smarmeron said:I am currently waiting on my armed escort to take me to the polling station.
I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)
twitter.com/Grassroots_Sco/status/512546718333034496/photo/1
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Betfir is just a source of endless fascination for me at the moment as the price doesn't seem to be driven by anything more than 'a hunch' from the market.0
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On the discussion on God Save the Queen, I'm surprised no one has mention the wonderful version by Britten.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mV1-OkHQ9KQ#
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Very true, very true. The status quo is safer I'd have thought, certainly in terms of the economics without any doubt in my mind, but you are right Yes has been selling the moon on a stick with free tartan unicorns on the side, and No have made a "vow" of what exactly (any idea?), and how does that fit in with what rUK feels?YBarddCwsc said:My own feeling -- if I were a Scot, would be one of rage.
After a mammoth campaign, lasting 2 years, I would expect politicians to have provided me with clear idea of what awaits if I either vote Yes or No.
The Scots are being asked to choose between two pigs in pokes.
They are being asked to decide who is the bigger confidence trickster, Yes or No.
After two years of campaigning, I would have expected Yes to have properly sorted out questions like currency and EU membership, and No to have properly sorted out what they mean by DevoMax.
Without that information, I have no basis for making a sensible decision.
So, if I had a vote, I'd probably abstain.
Just so so bad all round.0 -
Yesterday's poll had that issue, the inforgraphic said "Become" but the data tables said "Be"Hugh said:Er what was the wording on this final Mori poll?
The infographic I've seen says "Should Scotland BECOME an independent country"
That's not right, surely?
Ipsos-Mori confirmed they used "be" in the question0 -
It seems fairly clear from the polls that men are going to vote Yes and women No, and men under 50 in particular are supporting Yes. That might be a problem since younger men tend to be the ones who cause trouble in any society.0
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Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.0 -
Which is what those of us with steady nerves were saying during the YOUGOV heebie jeebies....rcs1000 said:Jack, I'm sorry but 'yes' is not going to make it to 40%. Maybe 39% if they are very lucky. All that devomax will turn out to have been an enormously pointless bribe.
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Can't believe any price moves before 6pm are based on insider info.
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Me too. The YES odds are definately too long not withstanding the polls. The FX markets are also very complacent. Already bet heavily on YES, am thinking about adding a sell GBP FX position...Alistair said:Betfir is just a source of endless fascination for me at the moment as the price doesn't seem to be driven by anything more than 'a hunch' from the market.
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http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-no-vote
I suspect the borders will just edge this.
There's a little value in the 5/1 IMO (down from 7/1 yesterday)0 -
Scottish referendum: should political polling be banned?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/willardfoxton2/100014223/scottish-referendum-should-political-polling-be-banned/0 -
Time for some lunch ....
Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....
Marvellous .....0 -
Actually on this matter I haven't had much to say at all. Not really fussed what Scotland does to be honest...JackW said:
And you were his understudy ....GIN1138 said:
Ouch!JackW said:
You mean it's your final and official pb prediction before your next one after lunch.SeanT said:
My final and official pb prediction was 47.3 YES.JackW said:Has SeanT -"Nervous Nelly in Chief" - finally settled down or is he likely to call the result for YES at the first chord of the bag pipes at a Glasgow polling station ?!?
I could be wrong. I bet it's a lot closer to the truth than your ARSE.
Dear god. Over these past weeks you've been and down more often that your young Thai prostitutes panties.
Get a grip of yourself man.
Turnip (copyright malcolmg)
*Shrug*
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It's not really worth reporting on the YES movements unless they are quite big, because they are just the mirror of the no price but with smaller incrementsAlistair said:Betfir is just a source of endless fascination for me at the moment as the price doesn't seem to be driven by anything more than 'a hunch' from the market.
So YES moving from 5.9 to 5.2 is the equivalent of NO moving from 1.204 to 1.238
YES 5.9 to 5.7 is NO 1.204 to 1.2120 -
thoughts on turnout - tweet from Paul Waugh.
RT @alanjrenwick: #indyref referendum turnout graphic pic.twitter.com/VSGeiePQwN @AndrewSparrow @MSmithsonPB @britainelects @paulwaugh
Highest turnout in Scotland 1950 - 80.9%. Highest in UK 1959 - 84.0%0 -
A bitter tasting dish. Very fatty, with curry overtones.TGOHF said:
Stuffed salmond tomorrow ?JackW said:Time for some lunch ....
Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....
Marvellous .....0 -
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Thanks. One could characterise that as 'general doubt' about the leap into the dark of a Yes, and I expect it will be widely shared, which is why I expect the final Yes figure to be lower than the polls are indicating.DaemonBarber said:She wan't convinced by supporting evidence from the YES side as to why the bad scenarios from NO side were unlikely/false. The volume of bad press and dissenting expert opinion shook her confidence.
She took the view that if you balance the worst possible outcome from both sides, which would you least like to happen, and how would you feel having voted for it.
Plus she felt that there was something a bit cultish surrounding Salmond/SNP.0 -
You don't think Orkney or Shetland might be possible candidates?Pong said:http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-no-vote
I suspect the borders will just edge this.
There's a little value in the 5/1 IMO (down from 7/1 yesterday)0 -
Maybe an Ortolan or two?JackW said:Time for some lunch ....
Probably some baked white fish and indeterminate white sauce followed by low calorie fruit(ish) yogurt washed down by a cheeky grand cru Highland Spring Water ....
Marvellous .....0 -
Does that mean if you do know vote Yes?Carnyx said:
Don't forget the mid-upper gunner will need extra ammo. BTW, see if this is being handed out by BT - will be interested to know if it is true.Smarmeron said:I am currently waiting on my armed escort to take me to the polling station.
I am full of fear and apprehension. (or possibly bullshit)
twitter.com/Grassroots_Sco/status/512546718333034496/photo/10 -
Alice Gross disappearance: Suspect Arnis Zalkalns has murder conviction
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29251735
I've always said we should have back ground checks on the free movement of people from the EU.0 -
Lightly smoked over oak chippings.TheWatcher said:
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No and it may simply be mischief making by people who stand to lose (or gain) large amounts. I remember a pack of nonsense about Labour being on course to lose posted here on the 2005 GE night. It turned out to be a few people trying to recoup their own losses.TGOHF said:Can't believe any price moves before 6pm are based on insider info.
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This is quite interesting:
46% tell @IpsosMORI final poll that NO will win 30% say YES
Didn't ICM say that at the last election people's expectations were actually closer to the final result than the official opinion polls?
Hence ICM's "wisdom poll" thing?
The result could be much more comfortable for NO than the official opinion polls have indicated?0 -
UKIP trade at 6/1 on Betfair for H&M.. 8/1 with Hills, you may as well get on now before the other firms go up 5/10
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Where's the Swedish tour guide today?0
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I hope to hear the good people in Scotland have behaved impeccably on election day and that electoral staff are given the due respect their code of conduct deserves.The role of alcohol in the UK,including Scotland,needs to be re-examined and stricter regulation to move from Hogarth's gin alley to beer lane seems to be needed.Blair's deregulation has been devastating for public health.I have observed what might be called a collective alcohol psychosis,paranoid grandiosity or grandiose paranoia.
I hope the Scots leave the swallying until later in the evening to accompany the popcorn.0 -
Had a nice marketing woman in today who could not sleep last night. She has a conference in London tomorrow and could not face going if it was a Yes. It is these simple practical things that are turning women voters to No.
Polling was heavy but not queuing out the door. When I was there I saw almost no youngsters voting. My son at the age of 20 has never voted before and was unsure of the process. If I had not guided him he would never have voted. I picked 79% and not sure we will get to 85%. Listening to the pop radio stations up here they are talking about the recent polls and this may convince some voters on both sides not to bother.
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While we are all waiting - Why is it 'polling place' in Scotland and 'polling station' in England?0
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If so that's significant. Ever since Faisal Islam posted the photo of the ballot paper I've been worried. 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' seems to beg the answer 'Yes.' It's such a bland looking question, and quite hard to argue against. Well, yep, we should all be independent in a way. 'Be' rather than 'become' is also very different.Hugh said:Er what was the wording on this final Mori poll?
The infographic I've seen says "Should Scotland BECOME an independent country"
That's not right, surely?
Mike (OGH) do you know if all the pollsters have asked the identical question to the ballot paper?0 -
Or those planning on trading upwards.CopperSulphate said:
The idea of a property price crash probably isn't that scary to the millions of people priced out of ever owning a home.SeanT said:
A YES could easily kick off an extremely nasty recession, a property price crash, you name it.Patrick said:So it looks like we're going to get the worst possible outcome - a narrow NO.
Scotland deeply split and angry, more and more baubles offered to them but no compensating common sense offered to England, a divided union that looks fractured and faces a very uncertain period of constituional argument. Not a great day. A YES would have been alot cleaner.
So for all the constitutional niceties - fuck that.
Let's avoid economic meltdown, and then try and fix the politics later.0 -
The official question is "Should Scotland be an independent country?" not "Should Scotland become an independent country".0
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BTW. No evidence that the poll is being conducted in anything other than a cordial manner. No intimidation from either side.0
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Could you be careful with Betfair prices. The ones you show are the Sportsbook ones which serious punters avoid like the plague. The exchange ones are best guide.isam said:UKIP trade at 6/1 on Betfair for H&M.. 8/1 with Hills, you may as well get on now before the other firms go up 5/1
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A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
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I have wondered if the reporting of bad temper and nastiness would influence polling. I could well believe that people were nervous about saying "NO" and said either "YES" or "DK".GIN1138 said:This is quite interesting:
....
The result could be much more comfortable for NO than the official opinion polls have indicated?
If NO has a wide margin then I will be interested to see if we ever find out how many NO voters simply felt too scared to admit it out loud.0 -
I don't know but "Polling station" has a slightly colonial feel about it, and the Scots tend to shy away from anything with those connotations. "Polling place" is more clear and neutral.SimonStClare said:While we are all waiting - Why is it 'polling place' in Scotland and 'polling station' in England?
Another one is "bus stance" in Scotland instead of "bus stand".0
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