Starmer moves to a 30% approval lead over Johnson – politicalbetting.com
Starmer moves to a 30% approval lead over Johnson – politicalbetting.com
As regular PBers will know I attach a lot more importance to approval ratings than voting intention polls which I why the above from Survation is being highlighted.
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WereI a Tory with a majority under 10k, parts of the Midlands excepted, I wouldn’t feel particularly confident about the future.
Electoral swings are never uniform.
Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.
When he took over Labour was 26 points behind and lost in a landslide. Nobody here or elsewhere was talking about a Labour comeback. We had articles and discussions about three terms of Johnson.
Now the discussion is about Hung Parliaments or majorities and how big the Labour lead should be.
We can debate forever about whether Starmer should be doing better but what he has done up to now is extraordinary. He will go down in history whatever happens, as the man that saved Labour from extinction.
Some of his ministerial colleagues are not pleased at having been previously told by No10 that the PM wasn’t aware of any “specific allegations” pre Pincher’s appointment.
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1544064528031387648
F1: there's a rubbish sprint race bullshit nonsense non-event this weekend. But, while I dislike this, it should be considered when betting.
Hard to say how Mercedes would fare in a dry qualifying, in the wet they were still third. But on pace, they were competitive in the race.
A pre-race race in the spring nonsense is, I think, advantageous for Mercedes. Good for Alonso as well, as qualifying is not his forte but lap 1 shenanigans are.
Labour's recovery has not been due to do with inspiring policies from Labour or Starmer's vision for the country; it has been due to a series of totally self-owned mistakes by the government.
But disagree with the last line. The current phase of the war is very different from the former one, with land slowly being gained and none of the dramatic scenes of February and March due to armoured thrusts. The media have also grown war-weary.
That's a big lesson to the Conservatives but, also, to Labour too.
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Raab says he and the perm sec spoke to him and made clear "it should never be repeated"
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205014595506176
Latest on what the PM knew?
Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776
From when the government chose to increase taxes against its manifesto onwards, we've had that, the end of the £20 UC uplift, Paterson and partygate. All combined have destroyed confidence in Johnson and left him utterly friendless, besides HYUFD who'd support Beelzebub himself if he were leader of the Conservative Party.
Starmer has done nothing much besides stand back and watch the self-immolation.
Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520
This morning I have written to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards - because No 10 keep changing their story and are still not telling the truth. https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784/photo/1
Is the only way I can think they will spin it.
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1544208618400129026
Most of all, the Durham thing shows his political instincts are essentially non-existent. Even if he gets away with it (he should not if the No. 10 does were bad), he said Johnson should just resign for being *accused* of wrong-doing. It was a brain-dead stupid thing for him to say, and set anyone on his own side up for the same treatment. It turned out to be him. By his own words, he should have resigned.
And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.
It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
Starmer just has to be better thought of than the Tory he’s up against. I am not sure the Tories have anyone who would be that much better than Johnson on that front who could get past the party membership.
That’s definitely a problem for Labour should it make it to government. The choices whoever is in charge after the next GE will have to make will be incredibly tough. Without some active support, they are likely to very quickly lead to immense unpopularity.
If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/29/no-10-denies-claims-boris-johnson-squeezed-thigh-journalist-charlotte-edwardes
Or is it simply that such behaviour was also winked at before Johnson took over ?
It certainly doesn't seem to have deterred the behaviour being repeated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62040915
Boris Johnson was made aware of a formal complaint about Chris Pincher's "inappropriate behaviour" while Mr Pincher was a Foreign Office minister from 2019-20.
The complaint led to a disciplinary process which confirmed his misconduct....
' Parliament must act to stop the “seemingly endless” allegations of sexual misconduct by MPs as political parties cannot be trusted to make it a safe place to work, two leading unions have warned.
[...]
In light of the Pincher scandal and the arrest of a Tory MP, who has not had the whip suspended, the FDA and Prospect asked Hoyle to act by looking at reform of parliament’s approach to sexual misconduct in his forthcoming Speaker’s conference – a forum for reviewing how the Commons works. They highlighted comments by Labour MP Luke Pollard that parliament is “not a safe place to work” and the “seemingly endless list of allegations of sexual misconduct by MPs”.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/04/unions-call-for-parliamentary-reform-after-seemingly-endless-misconduct-charges
That’s the problem for the Conservatives. Every day Johnson remains as leader, he drags the party’s reputation down too. Not by inches, but in fathoms.
Now years later people are claiming that the allegation was substantiated, when five years ago the news media were saying the opposite.
If that's the case for Pincher, how many other people have been "cleared" where in the future its going to come out that it was substantiated instead? Either the reporting is dodgy and history is being rewritten, or there was a real failure and/or something truly rotten five years ago when it was claimed he was cleared and then May made him Deputy Chief Whip following the reports claiming he was cleared.
Something stinks here.
“That’s news to me, I wasn’t aware of that and it’s not clear to me that that’s factually accurate”
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1544213854275735554
https://twitter.com/simonmcdonalduk/status/1544206976820854784
https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1544213961863725058
https://twitter.com/simonmcdonalduk/status/1544206976820854784
.@DominicRaab on McDonald claim that @BorisJohnson was personally told of Pincher allegation: "That’s news to me. It’s not clear to me that’s factually accurate.
"I have discussed this with the PM over the last 24 hours, It is not my understanding that he was directly briefed"
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1544213905903439873
https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784
17% in a single day. Its a volatile market but it is now well above the peaks of June. The inflationary implications of this should be concerning the government greatly.
I get that people get fed up with the lies, the dissembling and the tolerence of dreadful behaviour but I really wish the media would give more attention to our very real problems and the government's failure to address them rather than the latest bit of sleeze.
Much depends on how much heavy artillery is delivered to Ukraine over the next month or so.
Half a dozen HIMARS or equivalent won't turn the tide. Several dozen might well.
Tory peer Lady Stroud: "the reality is that sitting underneath all of this is the fact that the poverty levels of this country are too high and the government doesn’t have a strategic approach to tackling poverty.” and “We need a much more honest conversation around levels of poverty in the UK – what’s really driving it and what the solutions actually are.”
Tory ex WAP Secretary Stephen Crabb - Crabb endorsed Stroud’s comments, saying the debate about poverty in the UK had been too often dominated by attempts to exploit crude divisions between “scrounger and strivers” for political gain. Tackling poverty, he said, should not be about “how we are going to get votes, it’s something that should challenge our consciences”.
There are two basic problems:
1. This government disregards the facts and spouts boosterism. Every time anyone points to the horror that is out there BloJo mumbles something about sympathy then immediately pivots to the billion million pounds that has been spent so EVERYONE is better off and how marvellous everything it. You can't tackle poverty when you don't accept reality.
2. This government doesn't give a rat fuck. Poor people starving? AS HY puts it, they didn't vote Tory and can be ignored.
Or simply an aversion to the truth
https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1544215349658279942
#ChrisPincher https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1544207898624024577
Asked if correct as said by FCDO ex-perm sect that Johnson as PM was briefed directly abt complaint against Pincher, Raab says "It's not clear to me that that is factually accurate... It's not my understanding that he was directly briefed". Raab then said he never asked PM this.
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1544215405811699712
Meanwhile the real action is taking place in the South, which is more strategically important both for this war and for any that might follow in future years, given Kherson represents a bridgehead West of the Dnipro. While the Donestsk battlefield has developed into quite a static affair, we’re beginning to see signs of manoeuvre warfare returning in the south, with the Ukrainians using HIMARS to systemically destroy ammo dumps behind enemy lines before moving to encircle Kherson.
Then in terms of longer term war resilience, Putin is pulling every trick he can to avoid a general mobilisation given how it might undermine his position, and has raised the maximum service age to 65 for an army with already very low morale. And any sophisticated arms expended or destroyed are difficult to replace. Meanwhile the Ukraine population is as highly motivated as ever and can raise another million soldiers if it needs to, with more Western weapons coming in to replace any lost. With July/August trailed for a while as the time when Ukraine will begin to turn the screw in its counteroffensive effort.
Not to say Yokel is wrong. He might be right. But there’s multiple readings of this and it’s a bit early to get downbeat.
I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers.
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1544215673878024192
Dominic Raab's definitely going to have to punch a hole in a wall after this morning's broadcast round.
https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1544212053421920256
On topic. it's not surely just MPs who will becoming restive; I wonder how much the disaster in Tiverton was due to concern about morality in Downing Street affecting Conservative party workers. It cannot be motivating for them, surely. When the Liberal party had the 'problems'with Jeremy Thorpe it certainly caused party workers to reduce their activity to put it mildly!
Can I also hope that if Mr Seal spost today he feels in a better ]state of mind than he did yesterday. I wish him well!
1. This government is incapable of assessing reality, and
2. This government doesn't give a rat fuck about anyone
If we focus only on the coming riots, we let the government off the hook. There is no solution / Labour would be worse / LOOK AT WHAT DIANE ABBOTT JUST SAID!!! etc. So we focus on the stuff that helps highlight our two problems, using Pinchergate as a proxy:
1. Johnson appears to have directly lied to his deputy before Raaaaab was sent out to do the media. We have a Tory peer and ex-minister in this government writing to the Standards Commissioner saying that Downing Street is lying and *knows* that it is lying.
2. There appear to be growing numbers of scandals caused by what at best is an HR issue and at worst is sexual assault / harassment / worse in the Palace of Westminster. With the attitude being protect the alleged perp and ignore their victims.
Hopefully with each massive scandal we get another step further over the cliff until eventually this lot fall. And then we can tackle the other issues. Because we can do nothing about them whilst this lot remain in government denying there are issues.
I am unconvinced that is much more than wishful thinking on his part.
It's not looking brilliant for the Ukrainians atm, but neither is it looking terrible. This will change in one direction or the other (*).
(*) A brilliant bit of analysis, worthy of Peston at his finest.
"Three reasons to distrust Sir Keir on Brexit"
Generate ice with excess power in the summer, and use it to keep an underground store cold, opened infrequently. An issue is that this goes totally against modern logistics, where things come in and out every minute.
No wonder they get drunk / high and then do other things.
https://berwickpreservationtrust.co.uk/bankhill-icehouse/
http://www.archhighland.org.uk/news.asp?newsid=61
One would think the relatively frequent opening was an issue but evidently not - or at least not every day.* The large size does have a vastly better heat flux per unit volume score than a domestic-sized unit, though. And they relied also on an established heat (or rather coolth) gradient within a massive structure, I imagine - homemade permafrost in the surroinding subsoil.
Edit: accumulate fish till the next fast packet to London markets.
May is culpable but, in this as so much else, Johnson is not LESS culpable that her, but rather MORE.
PLUS spectacle of other Tories working overtime trying to sweep - make that shovel - his droppings under the rug, is NOT edifying nor persuasive. Either in House of Commons OR on PB.
Not a good look for the them OR their party.
Edit: actually there were a few more expletives but you get the idea.
So the real question then as summer draws to its lazy second half, is do we now see a Russian breakout towards Kharkiv. Or a Ukrainian one to Kherson?
There’s emerging evidence it’s the latter:
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1544192654199717888?s=21&t=Sgq-Z4I6lj7f7kKPYAs9fw
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1543724663519559682?s=21&t=Sgq-Z4I6lj7f7kKPYAs9fw
Now it is time for all good people to shun the aid of this party.
In the meantime we are facing serious macro-economic issues (along with much of the west) aggravated by past failures to create or maintain adequate storage for gas in the UK. We have soaring inflation and government policies that (5p off fuel duty apart) seem to add to the problem rather than reduce it. We have just been through nearly 6 months of paralysis on the back of a few drinks being consumed in Downing Street. The media are desperate to write and talk about this stuff to the exclusion of all else which makes effective government impossible. It's easy to blame Boris but we seem simply incapable of having a serious conversation anymore.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tugnet_Ice_House
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1544220418583760896
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1544221262351896576
If Raab had any dignity he would resign
My point about being unable to recognise reality? That's you that is. Because if you think that this government will even recognise all the horror realities you described you're in a parallel dimension.
They Don't Care About Us. They just want people to thank them for all the amazing things they have done.
What is wrong with politics?
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1544067875006201857
If it had though? Pass the popcorn.
As far as numbers are concerned, the only significant disparity is in artillery. Something the west could fix within weeks if it were sufficiently determined.
Right now, that field covers BoJo, the Cabinet and most ministers. But not most backbenchers, most of the party or most of the country.
But thanks to the RDF, that can be ignored.
Interestingly, data centres require massive amounts of cooling. Microsoft did an interesting trial of placing a data centre under water, and use the water to cool it. Apparently it worked rather well. I do feel sorry for the on-site admin, though, especially with the nitrogen atmosphere....
https://news.microsoft.com/innovation-stories/project-natick-underwater-datacenter/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54146718
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1544221597728382977