Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Starmer moves to a 30% approval lead over Johnson – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 10 in General
imageStarmer moves to a 30% approval lead over Johnson – politicalbetting.com

As regular PBers will know I attach a lot more importance to approval ratings than voting intention polls which I why the above from Survation is being highlighted.

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,268
    First like pincher.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    Second like the liar king
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    Starmer’s new position on Brexit will make voting tactically for the LDs in the southern blue wall seats where the remainers are concentrated somewhat easier, I think.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,563
    The headline is misleading although the story is correct. Boris is down rather than Starmer up.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,435
    "And I would tell 500 lies, and I would tell 500 more ..."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000
    If I was a Tory MP with a majority under 5k I would be very worried indeed and be planning for a post-Westminster future.

    WereI a Tory with a majority under 10k, parts of the Midlands excepted, I wouldn’t feel particularly confident about the future.
    Electoral swings are never uniform.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000

    The headline is misleading although the story is correct. Boris is down rather than Starmer up.

    Both have moved, albeit the liar considerably more.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,613
    FPT - @Yokes concerning news from Ukraine.

    Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Dominic Raab, who was also made aware of this complaint, will be speaking to @BBCr4today & #BBCBreakfast.

    Some of his ministerial colleagues are not pleased at having been previously told by No10 that the PM wasn’t aware of any “specific allegations” pre Pincher’s appointment.

    https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1544064528031387648
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,388
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: there's a rubbish sprint race bullshit nonsense non-event this weekend. But, while I dislike this, it should be considered when betting.

    Hard to say how Mercedes would fare in a dry qualifying, in the wet they were still third. But on pace, they were competitive in the race.

    A pre-race race in the spring nonsense is, I think, advantageous for Mercedes. Good for Alonso as well, as qualifying is not his forte but lap 1 shenanigans are.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    Let’s look at useless Starmer’s record.

    When he took over Labour was 26 points behind and lost in a landslide. Nobody here or elsewhere was talking about a Labour comeback. We had articles and discussions about three terms of Johnson.

    Now the discussion is about Hung Parliaments or majorities and how big the Labour lead should be.

    We can debate forever about whether Starmer should be doing better but what he has done up to now is extraordinary. He will go down in history whatever happens, as the man that saved Labour from extinction.

    That's partly true, but I'd argue that Labour's recovery is not much to do with Starmer (aside from the fact he's not Corbyn...) and much more to do with a disastrous year for the government. A year ago the Tories were polling mid-40s; Labour low to mid 30s. Conversation on here was which Labour MPs would cross the floor to the Tories.

    Labour's recovery has not been due to do with inspiring policies from Labour or Starmer's vision for the country; it has been due to a series of totally self-owned mistakes by the government.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    FPT - @Yokes concerning news from Ukraine.

    Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.

    Agree it's very concerning.

    But disagree with the last line. The current phase of the war is very different from the former one, with land slowly being gained and none of the dramatic scenes of February and March due to armoured thrusts. The media have also grown war-weary.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,613

    Let’s look at useless Starmer’s record.

    When he took over Labour was 26 points behind and lost in a landslide. Nobody here or elsewhere was talking about a Labour comeback. We had articles and discussions about three terms of Johnson.

    Now the discussion is about Hung Parliaments or majorities and how big the Labour lead should be.

    We can debate forever about whether Starmer should be doing better but what he has done up to now is extraordinary. He will go down in history whatever happens, as the man that saved Labour from extinction.

    That's partly true, but I'd argue that Labour's recovery is not much to do with Starmer (aside from the fact he's not Corbyn...) and much more to do with a disastrous year for the government. A year ago the Tories were polling mid-40s; Labour low to mid 30s. Conversation on here was which Labour MPs would cross the floor to the Tories.

    Labour's recovery has not been due to do with inspiring policies from Labour or Starmer's vision for the country; it has been due to a series of totally self-owned mistakes by the government.
    I think support for governments now can be a mile wide but an inch deep.

    That's a big lesson to the Conservatives but, also, to Labour too.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,508
    I haven’t shared one of these before, but Quordle called it an eagle and I feel quite smug

    Daily Quordle 162
    3️⃣6️⃣
    4️⃣5️⃣
    quordle.com
    ⬜🟨🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜
    🟨🟨🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨🟩⬜
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜🟩⬜⬜🟩
    ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜🟨🟨🟨⬜
    ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜🟩⬜🟩⬜
    ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    ⬜⬜🟩⬜⬜ ⬜🟨🟨⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜🟨🟨🟩 ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜
    ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 🟨🟩⬜⬜⬜
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜🟨🟨⬜⬜
    ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Dominic Raab confirms @ionewells story that "a complaint was made by someone who worked with him" about Chris Pincher's behaviour when he was a foreign office minister in 2019.

    Raab says he and the perm sec spoke to him and made clear "it should never be repeated"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205014595506176
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,468

    Let’s look at useless Starmer’s record.

    When he took over Labour was 26 points behind and lost in a landslide. Nobody here or elsewhere was talking about a Labour comeback. We had articles and discussions about three terms of Johnson.

    Now the discussion is about Hung Parliaments or majorities and how big the Labour lead should be.

    We can debate forever about whether Starmer should be doing better but what he has done up to now is extraordinary. He will go down in history whatever happens, as the man that saved Labour from extinction.

    That's partly true, but I'd argue that Labour's recovery is not much to do with Starmer (aside from the fact he's not Corbyn...) and much more to do with a disastrous year for the government. A year ago the Tories were polling mid-40s; Labour low to mid 30s. Conversation on here was which Labour MPs would cross the floor to the Tories.

    Labour's recovery has not been due to do with inspiring policies from Labour or Starmer's vision for the country; it has been due to a series of totally self-owned mistakes by the government.
    Absolutely. The government has repeatedly shot itself in the foot.

    From when the government chose to increase taxes against its manifesto onwards, we've had that, the end of the £20 UC uplift, Paterson and partygate. All combined have destroyed confidence in Johnson and left him utterly friendless, besides HYUFD who'd support Beelzebub himself if he were leader of the Conservative Party.

    Starmer has done nothing much besides stand back and watch the self-immolation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Boris Johnson was told about a formal complaint made against Chris Pincher after his appointment as a Foreign Office minister in 2019 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-well-aware-of-chris-pincher-claims-before-he-became-pm-8gv2xglvh?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1656998189
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Oh

    This morning I have written to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards - because No 10 keep changing their story and are still not telling the truth. https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784/photo/1
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,082
    edited July 5
    I imagine Raab/the govt response is going to be that historical transgressions are resolved and are not (open) "allegations".

    Is the only way I can think they will spin it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    TOPPING said:

    I imagine Raab/the govt response is going to be that historical transgressions are resolved and are not (open) "allegations".

    Is the only way I can think they will spin it.

    Read the letter from Simon McDonald
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Simon McDonald confirms our story that Boris Johnson was briefed about the process *and the outcome* of this complaint, says Pincher deceived him and others, and says just because an issue was “resolved” that doesn’t mean somehow Pincher was cleared - in fact the opposite.
    https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1544208618400129026
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    Let’s look at useless Starmer’s record.

    When he took over Labour was 26 points behind and lost in a landslide. Nobody here or elsewhere was talking about a Labour comeback. We had articles and discussions about three terms of Johnson.

    Now the discussion is about Hung Parliaments or majorities and how big the Labour lead should be.

    We can debate forever about whether Starmer should be doing better but what he has done up to now is extraordinary. He will go down in history whatever happens, as the man that saved Labour from extinction.

    That's partly true, but I'd argue that Labour's recovery is not much to do with Starmer (aside from the fact he's not Corbyn...) and much more to do with a disastrous year for the government. A year ago the Tories were polling mid-40s; Labour low to mid 30s. Conversation on here was which Labour MPs would cross the floor to the Tories.

    Labour's recovery has not been due to do with inspiring policies from Labour or Starmer's vision for the country; it has been due to a series of totally self-owned mistakes by the government.
    Absolutely. The government has repeatedly shot itself in the foot.

    From when the government chose to increase taxes against its manifesto onwards, we've had that, the end of the £20 UC uplift, Paterson and partygate. All combined have destroyed confidence in Johnson and left him utterly friendless, besides HYUFD who'd support Beelzebub himself if he were leader of the Conservative Party.

    Starmer has done nothing much besides stand back and watch the self-immolation.
    It's slightly worse than that for Starmer; he has not produced any substantive policies for Labour, but it's probably not necessary at this stage. But his idea of 'vision' is a massive WORN document (too much vision can also be a significant issue).

    Most of all, the Durham thing shows his political instincts are essentially non-existent. Even if he gets away with it (he should not if the No. 10 does were bad), he said Johnson should just resign for being *accused* of wrong-doing. It was a brain-dead stupid thing for him to say, and set anyone on his own side up for the same treatment. It turned out to be him. By his own words, he should have resigned.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000
    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000
    The stream of weaselly words from No10 seem to be exploring the PM's full repertoire of mendacity technique.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,468
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
    Well it was resolved in 2017 under Theresa May as PM to the point of Theresa May appointing him Deputy Chief Whip in 2018.

    If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,468
    It would be rather amusingly ironic if Boris following May in appointing Pincher to Deputy Chief Whip, as she did in 2018, is what provides his backbench critics including May the grounds for a second leadership challenge that brings him down.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,563
    edited July 5
    Nigelb said:

    The stream of weaselly words from No10 seem to be exploring the PM's full repertoire of mendacity technique.

    There may be some way to go. As Rory said: Johnson is after all the most accomplished liar in public life. He has mastered the use of error, omission, exaggeration, diminution, equivocation and flat denial. He has perfected casuistry, circumlocution, false equivalence and false analogy. He is equally adept at the ironic jest, the fib and the grand lie; the weasel word and the half-truth; the hyperbolic lie, the obvious lie, and the bullshit lie – which may inadvertently be true.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    edited July 5

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000
    edited July 5

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
    Well it was resolved in 2017 under Theresa May as PM to the point of Theresa May appointing him Deputy Chief Whip in 2018.

    If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
    Does it ?
    Or is it simply that such behaviour was also winked at before Johnson took over ?

    It certainly doesn't seem to have deterred the behaviour being repeated.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62040915
    Boris Johnson was made aware of a formal complaint about Chris Pincher's "inappropriate behaviour" while Mr Pincher was a Foreign Office minister from 2019-20.
    The complaint led to a disciplinary process which confirmed his misconduct....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    edited July 5
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
    Well it was resolved in 2017 under Theresa May as PM to the point of Theresa May appointing him Deputy Chief Whip in 2018.

    If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
    Does it ?
    Or is it simply that such behaviour was also winked at before Johnson took over ?

    It certainly doesn't seem to have deterred the behaviour being repeated.
    Unions of pmt staff getting unhappy. Itd's not just the leccy, drainage, structure and four- and six-legged pests that are the problem at the Palace of Westminster. Wonder if they will strike?

    ' Parliament must act to stop the “seemingly endless” allegations of sexual misconduct by MPs as political parties cannot be trusted to make it a safe place to work, two leading unions have warned.
    [...]
    In light of the Pincher scandal and the arrest of a Tory MP, who has not had the whip suspended, the FDA and Prospect asked Hoyle to act by looking at reform of parliament’s approach to sexual misconduct in his forthcoming Speaker’s conference – a forum for reviewing how the Commons works. They highlighted comments by Labour MP Luke Pollard that parliament is “not a safe place to work” and the “seemingly endless list of allegations of sexual misconduct by MPs”.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/04/unions-call-for-parliamentary-reform-after-seemingly-endless-misconduct-charges
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,145

    Let’s look at useless Starmer’s record.

    When he took over Labour was 26 points behind and lost in a landslide. Nobody here or elsewhere was talking about a Labour comeback. We had articles and discussions about three terms of Johnson.

    Now the discussion is about Hung Parliaments or majorities and how big the Labour lead should be.

    We can debate forever about whether Starmer should be doing better but what he has done up to now is extraordinary. He will go down in history whatever happens, as the man that saved Labour from extinction.

    That's partly true, but I'd argue that Labour's recovery is not much to do with Starmer (aside from the fact he's not Corbyn...) and much more to do with a disastrous year for the government. A year ago the Tories were polling mid-40s; Labour low to mid 30s. Conversation on here was which Labour MPs would cross the floor to the Tories.

    Labour's recovery has not been due to do with inspiring policies from Labour or Starmer's vision for the country; it has been due to a series of totally self-owned mistakes by the government.
    I think support for governments now can be a mile wide but an inch deep.

    That's a big lesson to the Conservatives but, also, to Labour too.
    I don’t think the sense that Johnson is a repeat liar is inch deep. Which is worse for him? That he’s so quickly been proved to have been lying about what he knew about Pincher, or that everyone assumed he was lying right from the start?

    That’s the problem for the Conservatives. Every day Johnson remains as leader, he drags the party’s reputation down too. Not by inches, but in fathoms.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    Johnson's latest pack of lies about not being told about Pincher is fast unravelling!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,468
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
    Well it was resolved in 2017 under Theresa May as PM to the point of Theresa May appointing him Deputy Chief Whip in 2018.

    If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
    Does it ?
    Or is it simply that such behaviour was also winked at before Johnson took over ?

    It certainly doesn't seem to have deterred the behaviour being repeated.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62040915
    Boris Johnson was made aware of a formal complaint about Chris Pincher's "inappropriate behaviour" while Mr Pincher was a Foreign Office minister from 2019-20.
    The complaint led to a disciplinary process which confirmed his misconduct....
    Well the reports in 2017 that were made public said he'd been cleared, and he was subsequently made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018 as a result.

    Now years later people are claiming that the allegation was substantiated, when five years ago the news media were saying the opposite.

    If that's the case for Pincher, how many other people have been "cleared" where in the future its going to come out that it was substantiated instead? Either the reporting is dodgy and history is being rewritten, or there was a real failure and/or something truly rotten five years ago when it was claimed he was cleared and then May made him Deputy Chief Whip following the reports claiming he was cleared.

    Something stinks here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195

    That’s the problem for the Conservatives. Every day Johnson remains as leader, he drags the party’s reputation down too. Not by inches, but in fathoms.

    They elected him because he is such a good liar
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Dominic Raab says of the explosive claims in this letter

    “That’s news to me, I wasn’t aware of that and it’s not clear to me that that’s factually accurate”

    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1544213854275735554
    https://twitter.com/simonmcdonalduk/status/1544206976820854784
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    BoZo lied to Raab...

    .@DominicRaab on McDonald claim that @BorisJohnson was personally told of Pincher allegation: "That’s news to me. It’s not clear to me that’s factually accurate.
    "I have discussed this with the PM over the last 24 hours, It is not my understanding that he was directly briefed"

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1544213905903439873
    https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,145

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
    Well it was resolved in 2017 under Theresa May as PM to the point of Theresa May appointing him Deputy Chief Whip in 2018.

    If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
    Today’s reporting relates to misconduct in late 2019/early 2020, under Johnson’s premiership. Johnson faced different facts than May had.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,445
    Another massive increase in gas futures again this morning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data
    17% in a single day. Its a volatile market but it is now well above the peaks of June. The inflationary implications of this should be concerning the government greatly.

    I get that people get fed up with the lies, the dissembling and the tolerence of dreadful behaviour but I really wish the media would give more attention to our very real problems and the government's failure to address them rather than the latest bit of sleeze.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314

    Starmer’s most important achievements have been internal. The far-left has been totally sidelined within Labour, not only inside the PLP but also at the NEC and, very largely, at CLP level. If he and Rayner do have to stand down, the leadership contest that follows will not involve a far-left candidate. None of this will be reflected in the polling, but it does create mood music and means the Labour spokespeople you see on the TV are no longer people like Richard Burgon, Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long Bailey. That definitely helps!

    Starmer just has to be better thought of than the Tory he’s up against. I am not sure the Tories have anyone who would be that much better than Johnson on that front who could get past the party membership.

    That’s definitely a problem for Labour should it make it to government. The choices whoever is in charge after the next GE will have to make will be incredibly tough. Without some active support, they are likely to very quickly lead to immense unpopularity.

    So how's that happened at local level, then, given all that was written about the left's grip on many local parties previously?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000

    FPT - @Yokes concerning news from Ukraine.

    Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.

    I don't think it's that simple, but it's clearly true that Ukraine is being overmatched in the battles in the east.
    Much depends on how much heavy artillery is delivered to Ukraine over the next month or so.
    Half a dozen HIMARS or equivalent won't turn the tide. Several dozen might well.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    DavidL said:

    I really wish the media would give more attention to our very real problems and the government's failure to address them rather than the latest bit of sleeze.

    I wish the Government would give more attention to our very real problems but they are spending all their energy on the increasingly futile task of defending the Big Dog.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    Another brutal blue on blue attack: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/05/tory-peer-says-government-has-made-a-political-football-out-of-poverty

    Tory peer Lady Stroud: "the reality is that sitting underneath all of this is the fact that the poverty levels of this country are too high and the government doesn’t have a strategic approach to tackling poverty.” and “We need a much more honest conversation around levels of poverty in the UK – what’s really driving it and what the solutions actually are.”

    Tory ex WAP Secretary Stephen Crabb - Crabb endorsed Stroud’s comments, saying the debate about poverty in the UK had been too often dominated by attempts to exploit crude divisions between “scrounger and strivers” for political gain. Tackling poverty, he said, should not be about “how we are going to get votes, it’s something that should challenge our consciences”.

    There are two basic problems:
    1. This government disregards the facts and spouts boosterism. Every time anyone points to the horror that is out there BloJo mumbles something about sympathy then immediately pivots to the billion million pounds that has been spent so EVERYONE is better off and how marvellous everything it. You can't tackle poverty when you don't accept reality.
    2. This government doesn't give a rat fuck. Poor people starving? AS HY puts it, they didn't vote Tory and can be ignored.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    DavidL said:

    Another massive increase in gas futures again this morning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data
    17% in a single day. Its a volatile market but it is now well above the peaks of June. The inflationary implications of this should be concerning the government greatly.

    I get that people get fed up with the lies, the dissembling and the tolerence of dreadful behaviour but I really wish the media would give more attention to our very real problems and the government's failure to address them rather than the latest bit of sleeze.

    But that's the point. Until the liar king is deposed, this saga of scandals, gaffes and embarrassments will roll on and on...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    I really wish the media would give more attention to our very real problems and the government's failure to address them rather than the latest bit of sleeze.

    I wish the Government would give more attention to our very real problems but they are spending all their energy on the increasingly futile task of defending the BigLame Dog.
    Corrected
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Listening to Dominic Raab it’s hard to know whether this is a government where there are different versions of the truth.
    Or simply an aversion to the truth

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1544215349658279942
    #ChrisPincher https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1544207898624024577

    Asked if correct as said by FCDO ex-perm sect that Johnson as PM was briefed directly abt complaint against Pincher, Raab says "It's not clear to me that that is factually accurate... It's not my understanding that he was directly briefed". Raab then said he never asked PM this.
    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1544215405811699712
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000

    Let’s look at useless Starmer’s record.

    When he took over Labour was 26 points behind and lost in a landslide. Nobody here or elsewhere was talking about a Labour comeback. We had articles and discussions about three terms of Johnson.

    Now the discussion is about Hung Parliaments or majorities and how big the Labour lead should be.

    We can debate forever about whether Starmer should be doing better but what he has done up to now is extraordinary. He will go down in history whatever happens, as the man that saved Labour from extinction.

    That's partly true, but I'd argue that Labour's recovery is not much to do with Starmer (aside from the fact he's not Corbyn...) and much more to do with a disastrous year for the government. A year ago the Tories were polling mid-40s; Labour low to mid 30s. Conversation on here was which Labour MPs would cross the floor to the Tories.

    Labour's recovery has not been due to do with inspiring policies from Labour or Starmer's vision for the country; it has been due to a series of totally self-owned mistakes by the government.
    I think support for governments now can be a mile wide but an inch deep.

    That's a big lesson to the Conservatives but, also, to Labour too.
    I don’t think the sense that Johnson is a repeat liar is inch deep. Which is worse for him? That he’s so quickly been proved to have been lying about what he knew about Pincher, or that everyone assumed he was lying right from the start?

    That’s the problem for the Conservatives. Every day Johnson remains as leader, he drags the party’s reputation down too. Not by inches, but in fathoms.

    We used to call him the liar in No10. For a while now, just "the liar" is a more than sufficient identifier.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    Carnyx said:

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
    This sort of system has been talked about for ages, including some using molten metals. It's interesting that this system is very simple, and is purposefully not being used to generate electricity, and instead providing home heating. The energy density must be rather low, although with sand as a medium that might not matter much.

    I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers. ;)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Dominic Raab moving in the space of 5 mins from ‘that’s not accurate’ to ‘that’s news to me’ (on claims PM was directly told of a formal complaint against Chris Pincher in 2019) to admitting that he didn’t directly ask the PM if he was told about this.
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1544215673878024192

    Dominic Raab's definitely going to have to punch a hole in a wall after this morning's broadcast round.
    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1544212053421920256
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,563
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
    Well it was resolved in 2017 under Theresa May as PM to the point of Theresa May appointing him Deputy Chief Whip in 2018.

    If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
    Does it ?
    Or is it simply that such behaviour was also winked at before Johnson took over ?

    It certainly doesn't seem to have deterred the behaviour being repeated.
    Unions of pmt staff getting unhappy. Itd's not just the leccy, drainage, structure and four- and six-legged pests that are the problem at the Palace of Westminster. Wonder if they will strike?

    ' Parliament must act to stop the “seemingly endless” allegations of sexual misconduct by MPs as political parties cannot be trusted to make it a safe place to work, two leading unions have warned.
    [...]
    In light of the Pincher scandal and the arrest of a Tory MP, who has not had the whip suspended, the FDA and Prospect asked Hoyle to act by looking at reform of parliament’s approach to sexual misconduct in his forthcoming Speaker’s conference – a forum for reviewing how the Commons works. They highlighted comments by Labour MP Luke Pollard that parliament is “not a safe place to work” and the “seemingly endless list of allegations of sexual misconduct by MPs”.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/04/unions-call-for-parliamentary-reform-after-seemingly-endless-misconduct-charges
    Sexual misconduct is the surface issue but perhaps the underlying problem is MPs getting drunk, and perhaps coked up, and then, with inhibitions lowered and machismo stimulated, allowing themselves to act in ways that are sexually inappropriate, offensive and/or violent. Close the bars and sweep the single-sex toilets for class As.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo lied to Raab...

    .@DominicRaab on McDonald claim that @BorisJohnson was personally told of Pincher allegation: "That’s news to me. It’s not clear to me that’s factually accurate.
    "I have discussed this with the PM over the last 24 hours, It is not my understanding that he was directly briefed"

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1544213905903439873
    https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784

    Raab is at least enough of a lawyer to have mastered the basic non-denial denial, I see.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,388
    Mr. L, not to worry, I'm sure the Bank of England will have a heroic 0.25% rate rise to save the day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,445
    Nigelb said:

    FPT - @Yokes concerning news from Ukraine.

    Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.

    I don't think it's that simple, but it's clearly true that Ukraine is being overmatched in the battles in the east.
    Much depends on how much heavy artillery is delivered to Ukraine over the next month or so.
    Half a dozen HIMARS or equivalent won't turn the tide. Several dozen might well.
    It may well be too late now. The Ukranian army has been crushed by artillery fire for more than a month now with very heavy casualties. The units in the Donbas were described as their best and they will be largely ineffective now. Will there be enough forces left by the time that the artillery is equalised? It's looking doubtful. Now that the Russians have learned from their painfully inept tactics in the first weeks of the war the laws of numbers are reasserting themselves and have been since late May.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,986
    edited July 5
    Good morning everyone! Another fine summer morning!

    On topic. it's not surely just MPs who will becoming restive; I wonder how much the disaster in Tiverton was due to concern about morality in Downing Street affecting Conservative party workers. It cannot be motivating for them, surely. When the Liberal party had the 'problems'with Jeremy Thorpe it certainly caused party workers to reduce their activity to put it mildly!

    Can I also hope that if Mr Seal spost today he feels in a better ]state of mind than he did yesterday. I wish him well!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,398
    Lol, Johnson caught lying. For the 1000th time. And yet he thinks he can plod on with all the support in the world
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 8,468

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
    Well it was resolved in 2017 under Theresa May as PM to the point of Theresa May appointing him Deputy Chief Whip in 2018.

    If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
    Today’s reporting relates to misconduct in late 2019/early 2020, under Johnson’s premiership. Johnson faced different facts than May had.
    Ah I see. Too early, pre-coffee, I didn't realise that. Apologies for the confusion.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    DavidL said:

    Another massive increase in gas futures again this morning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data
    17% in a single day. Its a volatile market but it is now well above the peaks of June. The inflationary implications of this should be concerning the government greatly.

    I get that people get fed up with the lies, the dissembling and the tolerence of dreadful behaviour but I really wish the media would give more attention to our very real problems and the government's failure to address them rather than the latest bit of sleeze.

    As I just posted in relation to Pinchergate, the sleaze is directly related to the genuine crisis because:
    1. This government is incapable of assessing reality, and
    2. This government doesn't give a rat fuck about anyone

    If we focus only on the coming riots, we let the government off the hook. There is no solution / Labour would be worse / LOOK AT WHAT DIANE ABBOTT JUST SAID!!! etc. So we focus on the stuff that helps highlight our two problems, using Pinchergate as a proxy:

    1. Johnson appears to have directly lied to his deputy before Raaaaab was sent out to do the media. We have a Tory peer and ex-minister in this government writing to the Standards Commissioner saying that Downing Street is lying and *knows* that it is lying.
    2. There appear to be growing numbers of scandals caused by what at best is an HR issue and at worst is sexual assault / harassment / worse in the Palace of Westminster. With the attitude being protect the alleged perp and ignore their victims.

    Hopefully with each massive scandal we get another step further over the cliff until eventually this lot fall. And then we can tackle the other issues. Because we can do nothing about them whilst this lot remain in government denying there are issues.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236
    IanB2 said:

    Starmer’s most important achievements have been internal. The far-left has been totally sidelined within Labour, not only inside the PLP but also at the NEC and, very largely, at CLP level. If he and Rayner do have to stand down, the leadership contest that follows will not involve a far-left candidate. None of this will be reflected in the polling, but it does create mood music and means the Labour spokespeople you see on the TV are no longer people like Richard Burgon, Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long Bailey. That definitely helps!

    Starmer just has to be better thought of than the Tory he’s up against. I am not sure the Tories have anyone who would be that much better than Johnson on that front who could get past the party membership.

    That’s definitely a problem for Labour should it make it to government. The choices whoever is in charge after the next GE will have to make will be incredibly tough. Without some active support, they are likely to very quickly lead to immense unpopularity.

    So how's that happened at local level, then, given all that was written about the left's grip on many local parties previously?
    Some expulsions and suspensions, an awful lot of resignations and people not renewing. The churn in membership has been very significant. A lot have gone and left space for less militant members to get more involved, while those joining tend to be more mainstream than was the case under Corbyn.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,563
    edited July 5

    Carnyx said:

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
    This sort of system has been talked about for ages, including some using molten metals. It's interesting that this system is very simple, and is purposefully not being used to generate electricity, and instead providing home heating. The energy density must be rather low, although with sand as a medium that might not matter much.

    I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers. ;)
    Surely ice houses were a feature of grand houses owned by rich aristocrats. Ice cream was for the posh.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    moonshine said:

    FPT - @Yokes concerning news from Ukraine.

    Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.

    Agree it's very concerning.

    But disagree with the last line. The current phase of the war is very different from the former one, with land slowly being gained and none of the dramatic scenes of February and March due to armoured thrusts. The media have also grown war-weary.
    It all depends which analysts you choose to believe. The alternative analysis is that Donetsk is a militarily unimportant battle and that the Ukrainians have used it to attrit the Russians without giving up much in the way of territory, with the retreat from Lysychansk and SeveroDonetsk being text book examples of a professional army vacating in an ordered way at relatively low cost due to Russian failure to secure the highways, with the Ukrainians having inflicted maximum damage to the enemy (albeit taking serious casualties during the battles themselves).

    Meanwhile the real action is taking place in the South, which is more strategically important both for this war and for any that might follow in future years, given Kherson represents a bridgehead West of the Dnipro. While the Donestsk battlefield has developed into quite a static affair, we’re beginning to see signs of manoeuvre warfare returning in the south, with the Ukrainians using HIMARS to systemically destroy ammo dumps behind enemy lines before moving to encircle Kherson.

    Then in terms of longer term war resilience, Putin is pulling every trick he can to avoid a general mobilisation given how it might undermine his position, and has raised the maximum service age to 65 for an army with already very low morale. And any sophisticated arms expended or destroyed are difficult to replace. Meanwhile the Ukraine population is as highly motivated as ever and can raise another million soldiers if it needs to, with more Western weapons coming in to replace any lost. With July/August trailed for a while as the time when Ukraine will begin to turn the screw in its counteroffensive effort.

    Not to say Yokel is wrong. He might be right. But there’s multiple readings of this and it’s a bit early to get downbeat.
    Also, as I keep om saying, the definition of 'win' and 'lose' need defining. on the previous thread, DA seemed to think that the Russian industrial machine would be cranking out massive quantities of military gear next year, using Chinese/Indian/Israeli electronics.

    I am unconvinced that is much more than wishful thinking on his part.

    It's not looking brilliant for the Ukrainians atm, but neither is it looking terrible. This will change in one direction or the other (*).

    (*) A brilliant bit of analysis, worthy of Peston at his finest. ;)
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,508
    Today's free story on https://www.eurointelligence.com/

    "Three reasons to distrust Sir Keir on Brexit"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    Carnyx said:

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
    This sort of system has been talked about for ages, including some using molten metals. It's interesting that this system is very simple, and is purposefully not being used to generate electricity, and instead providing home heating. The energy density must be rather low, although with sand as a medium that might not matter much.

    I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers. ;)
    Surely ice houses were a feature of grand houses owned by rich aristocrats. Ice cream was for the posh.
    They were; but they also worked.

    Generate ice with excess power in the summer, and use it to keep an underground store cold, opened infrequently. An issue is that this goes totally against modern logistics, where things come in and out every minute.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,416
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo lied to Raab...

    .@DominicRaab on McDonald claim that @BorisJohnson was personally told of Pincher allegation: "That’s news to me. It’s not clear to me that’s factually accurate.
    "I have discussed this with the PM over the last 24 hours, It is not my understanding that he was directly briefed"

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1544213905903439873
    https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784

    Raab is at least enough of a lawyer to have mastered the basic non-denial denial, I see.
    Fiery resignation and leadership bid please! To lose to Mordaunt of course.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Will this line last the day?

    Latest on what the PM knew?

    Dominic Raab tells @skynews: “I don't think the PM is aware of any substantiated complaints to the extent they would trigger a formal mechanism"

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544205622765387776

    At least one of the complaints, that No10 described as 'resolved', was substantiated.

    And it didn't 'trigger a formal mechanism' because it falls into the pattern of brushing everything under the carpet.

    It's not a defence to an accusation of ignoring bad behaviour to say that the behaviour was ignored.
    Well it was resolved in 2017 under Theresa May as PM to the point of Theresa May appointing him Deputy Chief Whip in 2018.

    If the resolution of the issue was that it was so bad in 2017, why would he have been made Deputy Chief Whip in 2018, not just 2020? That seems confusing.
    Does it ?
    Or is it simply that such behaviour was also winked at before Johnson took over ?

    It certainly doesn't seem to have deterred the behaviour being repeated.
    Unions of pmt staff getting unhappy. Itd's not just the leccy, drainage, structure and four- and six-legged pests that are the problem at the Palace of Westminster. Wonder if they will strike?

    ' Parliament must act to stop the “seemingly endless” allegations of sexual misconduct by MPs as political parties cannot be trusted to make it a safe place to work, two leading unions have warned.
    [...]
    In light of the Pincher scandal and the arrest of a Tory MP, who has not had the whip suspended, the FDA and Prospect asked Hoyle to act by looking at reform of parliament’s approach to sexual misconduct in his forthcoming Speaker’s conference – a forum for reviewing how the Commons works. They highlighted comments by Labour MP Luke Pollard that parliament is “not a safe place to work” and the “seemingly endless list of allegations of sexual misconduct by MPs”.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/04/unions-call-for-parliamentary-reform-after-seemingly-endless-misconduct-charges
    Sexual misconduct is the surface issue but perhaps the underlying problem is MPs getting drunk, and perhaps coked up, and then, with inhibitions lowered and machismo stimulated, allowing themselves to act in ways that are sexually inappropriate, offensive and/or violent. Close the bars and sweep the single-sex toilets for class As.
    Being an MP must be an awful job. I've always thought that, and the more you look at the details the more it appears to be brutalising. Away all week. In a shark pool of "must compete" and "must be seen to toe the line". With 24 hour scrutiny and often abuse from the public.

    No wonder they get drunk / high and then do other things.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    edited July 5

    Carnyx said:

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
    This sort of system has been talked about for ages, including some using molten metals. It's interesting that this system is very simple, and is purposefully not being used to generate electricity, and instead providing home heating. The energy density must be rather low, although with sand as a medium that might not matter much.

    I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers. ;)
    Surely ice houses were a feature of grand houses owned by rich aristocrats. Ice cream was for the posh.
    They were; but they also worked.

    Generate ice with excess power in the summer, and use it to keep an underground store cold, opened infrequently. An issue is that this goes totally against modern logistics, where things come in and out every minute.
    Notd just rich aristos. Salmon fishers had them on the eastern seaboard, perhaps cooperatively funded or rented (not sure). Just two examples I've come across:

    https://berwickpreservationtrust.co.uk/bankhill-icehouse/
    http://www.archhighland.org.uk/news.asp?newsid=61

    One would think the relatively frequent opening was an issue but evidently not - or at least not every day.* The large size does have a vastly better heat flux per unit volume score than a domestic-sized unit, though. And they relied also on an established heat (or rather coolth) gradient within a massive structure, I imagine - homemade permafrost in the surroinding subsoil.

    Edit: accumulate fish till the next fast packet to London markets.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,616

    It would be rather amusingly ironic if Boris following May in appointing Pincher to Deputy Chief Whip, as she did in 2018, is what provides his backbench critics including May the grounds for a second leadership challenge that brings him down.

    Saying that Boris follows anyone other than his role-model Putin is problematic.

    May is culpable but, in this as so much else, Johnson is not LESS culpable that her, but rather MORE.

    PLUS spectacle of other Tories working overtime trying to sweep - make that shovel - his droppings under the rug, is NOT edifying nor persuasive. Either in House of Commons OR on PB.

    Not a good look for the them OR their party.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 282
    edited July 5

    Good morning everyone! Another fine summer morning!

    On topic. it's not surely just MPs who will becoming restive; I wonder how much the disaster in Tiverton was due to concern about morality in Downing Street affecting Conservative party workers. It cannot be motivating for them, surely. When the Liberal party had the 'problems'with Jeremy Thorpe it certainly caused party workers to reduce their activity to put it mildly!

    Can I also hope that if Mr Seal spost today he feels in a better ]state of mind than he did yesterday. I wish him well!

    A T and H Tory "What's the point in me working my arse off when our MPs cannot get rid of the reason we are going to lose. Let them come down here and get the abuse."

    Edit: actually there were a few more expletives but you get the idea.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,708

    moonshine said:

    FPT - @Yokes concerning news from Ukraine.

    Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.

    Agree it's very concerning.

    But disagree with the last line. The current phase of the war is very different from the former one, with land slowly being gained and none of the dramatic scenes of February and March due to armoured thrusts. The media have also grown war-weary.
    It all depends which analysts you choose to believe. The alternative analysis is that Donetsk is a militarily unimportant battle and that the Ukrainians have used it to attrit the Russians without giving up much in the way of territory, with the retreat from Lysychansk and SeveroDonetsk being text book examples of a professional army vacating in an ordered way at relatively low cost due to Russian failure to secure the highways, with the Ukrainians having inflicted maximum damage to the enemy (albeit taking serious casualties during the battles themselves).

    Meanwhile the real action is taking place in the South, which is more strategically important both for this war and for any that might follow in future years, given Kherson represents a bridgehead West of the Dnipro. While the Donestsk battlefield has developed into quite a static affair, we’re beginning to see signs of manoeuvre warfare returning in the south, with the Ukrainians using HIMARS to systemically destroy ammo dumps behind enemy lines before moving to encircle Kherson.

    Then in terms of longer term war resilience, Putin is pulling every trick he can to avoid a general mobilisation given how it might undermine his position, and has raised the maximum service age to 65 for an army with already very low morale. And any sophisticated arms expended or destroyed are difficult to replace. Meanwhile the Ukraine population is as highly motivated as ever and can raise another million soldiers if it needs to, with more Western weapons coming in to replace any lost. With July/August trailed for a while as the time when Ukraine will begin to turn the screw in its counteroffensive effort.

    Not to say Yokel is wrong. He might be right. But there’s multiple readings of this and it’s a bit early to get downbeat.
    Also, as I keep om saying, the definition of 'win' and 'lose' need defining. on the previous thread, DA seemed to think that the Russian industrial machine would be cranking out massive quantities of military gear next year, using Chinese/Indian/Israeli electronics.

    I am unconvinced that is much more than wishful thinking on his part.

    It's not looking brilliant for the Ukrainians atm, but neither is it looking terrible. This will change in one direction or the other (*).

    (*) A brilliant bit of analysis, worthy of Peston at his finest. ;)
    Your last paragraph is the salient one. We’ve had a long period now of an almost entirely static battlefield, with no manoeuvre warfare of note. Russia has been struggling to reconstitute the remnants of the units blown away on the failed assault of Kiev and Kharkiv. And Ukraine is holding a line while it bolsters its weapons capabilities.

    So the real question then as summer draws to its lazy second half, is do we now see a Russian breakout towards Kharkiv. Or a Ukrainian one to Kherson?

    There’s emerging evidence it’s the latter:

    https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1544192654199717888?s=21&t=Sgq-Z4I6lj7f7kKPYAs9fw

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1543724663519559682?s=21&t=Sgq-Z4I6lj7f7kKPYAs9fw

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,616

    Good morning everyone! Another fine summer morning!

    On topic. it's not surely just MPs who will becoming restive; I wonder how much the disaster in Tiverton was due to concern about morality in Downing Street affecting Conservative party workers. It cannot be motivating for them, surely. When the Liberal party had the 'problems'with Jeremy Thorpe it certainly caused party workers to reduce their activity to put it mildly!

    Can I also hope that if Mr Seal spost today he feels in a better ]state of mind than he did yesterday. I wish him well!

    Would seem that a real Tory (as opposed to "true') who campaigns for any Tory candidate at the moment, is doing real (ditto) disservice to . . . wait for it . . . the Tory party.

    Now it is time for all good people to shun the aid of this party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,445

    DavidL said:

    Another massive increase in gas futures again this morning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data
    17% in a single day. Its a volatile market but it is now well above the peaks of June. The inflationary implications of this should be concerning the government greatly.

    I get that people get fed up with the lies, the dissembling and the tolerence of dreadful behaviour but I really wish the media would give more attention to our very real problems and the government's failure to address them rather than the latest bit of sleeze.

    As I just posted in relation to Pinchergate, the sleaze is directly related to the genuine crisis because:
    1. This government is incapable of assessing reality, and
    2. This government doesn't give a rat fuck about anyone

    If we focus only on the coming riots, we let the government off the hook. There is no solution / Labour would be worse / LOOK AT WHAT DIANE ABBOTT JUST SAID!!! etc. So we focus on the stuff that helps highlight our two problems, using Pinchergate as a proxy:

    1. Johnson appears to have directly lied to his deputy before Raaaaab was sent out to do the media. We have a Tory peer and ex-minister in this government writing to the Standards Commissioner saying that Downing Street is lying and *knows* that it is lying.
    2. There appear to be growing numbers of scandals caused by what at best is an HR issue and at worst is sexual assault / harassment / worse in the Palace of Westminster. With the attitude being protect the alleged perp and ignore their victims.

    Hopefully with each massive scandal we get another step further over the cliff until eventually this lot fall. And then we can tackle the other issues. Because we can do nothing about them whilst this lot remain in government denying there are issues.
    Pincher has not been proteced, the whip has been withdrawn and he is now sitting as an independent with no chance of being in the next Parliament even if he survives this one. The media have moved on to why such a notorious sex pest was appointed in the first place and the answer seems to be incompetence combined with lying about what was known. But this is, in the scheme of things, completely trivial once again. A somewhat self-entitled sex pest with a slightly dodgy history (although promoted by May) was made...deputy chief whip. Big deal.

    In the meantime we are facing serious macro-economic issues (along with much of the west) aggravated by past failures to create or maintain adequate storage for gas in the UK. We have soaring inflation and government policies that (5p off fuel duty apart) seem to add to the problem rather than reduce it. We have just been through nearly 6 months of paralysis on the back of a few drinks being consumed in Downing Street. The media are desperate to write and talk about this stuff to the exclusion of all else which makes effective government impossible. It's easy to blame Boris but we seem simply incapable of having a serious conversation anymore.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I am so glad those privatised rail companies have ended the British Rail strikes
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,563

    Carnyx said:

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
    This sort of system has been talked about for ages, including some using molten metals. It's interesting that this system is very simple, and is purposefully not being used to generate electricity, and instead providing home heating. The energy density must be rather low, although with sand as a medium that might not matter much.

    I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers. ;)
    Surely ice houses were a feature of grand houses owned by rich aristocrats. Ice cream was for the posh.
    They were; but they also worked.

    Generate ice with excess power in the summer, and use it to keep an underground store cold, opened infrequently. An issue is that this goes totally against modern logistics, where things come in and out every minute.
    Could this be tapped as a form of air-conditioning, a sort of reverse ground-source heat pump?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,434
    JonWC said:

    Good morning everyone! Another fine summer morning!

    On topic. it's not surely just MPs who will becoming restive; I wonder how much the disaster in Tiverton was due to concern about morality in Downing Street affecting Conservative party workers. It cannot be motivating for them, surely. When the Liberal party had the 'problems'with Jeremy Thorpe it certainly caused party workers to reduce their activity to put it mildly!

    Can I also hope that if Mr Seal spost today he feels in a better ]state of mind than he did yesterday. I wish him well!

    A T and H Tory "What's the point in me working my arse off when our MPs cannot get rid of the reason we are going to lose. Let them come down here and get the abuse."

    Edit: actually there were a few more expletives but you get the idea.
    @marqueemark (a local Tory) posted here similarly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
    This sort of system has been talked about for ages, including some using molten metals. It's interesting that this system is very simple, and is purposefully not being used to generate electricity, and instead providing home heating. The energy density must be rather low, although with sand as a medium that might not matter much.

    I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers. ;)
    Surely ice houses were a feature of grand houses owned by rich aristocrats. Ice cream was for the posh.
    They were; but they also worked.

    Generate ice with excess power in the summer, and use it to keep an underground store cold, opened infrequently. An issue is that this goes totally against modern logistics, where things come in and out every minute.
    Notd just rich aristos. Salmon fishers had them on the eastern seaboard, perhaps cooperatively funded or rented (not sure). Just two examples I've come across:

    https://berwickpreservationtrust.co.uk/bankhill-icehouse/
    http://www.archhighland.org.uk/news.asp?newsid=61

    One would think the relatively frequent opening was an issue but evidently not - or at least not every day. The large size does have a vastly better heat flux per unit volume score than a domestic-sized unit, though. And they relied also on an established heat (or rather coolth) gradient within a massive structure, I imagine - homemade permafrost in the surroinding subsoil.
    Yes!!! I remember I passed one whilst walking the Speyside Way! (I must have passed it on my coastwalk, but did not notice it). Apparently the largest surviving ice house in the UK.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tugnet_Ice_House
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    I guess the question for Conservative MPs/ministers is whether the remedy for the lie that Lord McDonald alleges has been told is procedural (he has written to the standards commissioner) or political (they do something about the person McDonald says has told the lie)
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1544220418583760896
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Unbelievably bad the Dom Raab was sent out just 20 mins before Lord MacDonald to say the PM had no idea about allegations against Pincher while he was a minister. MacDonald confirmed minutes later to say the PM was briefed in person.
    https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1544221262351896576


    If Raab had any dignity he would resign
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Another massive increase in gas futures again this morning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data
    17% in a single day. Its a volatile market but it is now well above the peaks of June. The inflationary implications of this should be concerning the government greatly.

    I get that people get fed up with the lies, the dissembling and the tolerence of dreadful behaviour but I really wish the media would give more attention to our very real problems and the government's failure to address them rather than the latest bit of sleeze.

    As I just posted in relation to Pinchergate, the sleaze is directly related to the genuine crisis because:
    1. This government is incapable of assessing reality, and
    2. This government doesn't give a rat fuck about anyone

    If we focus only on the coming riots, we let the government off the hook. There is no solution / Labour would be worse / LOOK AT WHAT DIANE ABBOTT JUST SAID!!! etc. So we focus on the stuff that helps highlight our two problems, using Pinchergate as a proxy:

    1. Johnson appears to have directly lied to his deputy before Raaaaab was sent out to do the media. We have a Tory peer and ex-minister in this government writing to the Standards Commissioner saying that Downing Street is lying and *knows* that it is lying.
    2. There appear to be growing numbers of scandals caused by what at best is an HR issue and at worst is sexual assault / harassment / worse in the Palace of Westminster. With the attitude being protect the alleged perp and ignore their victims.

    Hopefully with each massive scandal we get another step further over the cliff until eventually this lot fall. And then we can tackle the other issues. Because we can do nothing about them whilst this lot remain in government denying there are issues.
    Pincher has not been proteced, the whip has been withdrawn and he is now sitting as an independent with no chance of being in the next Parliament even if he survives this one. The media have moved on to why such a notorious sex pest was appointed in the first place and the answer seems to be incompetence combined with lying about what was known. But this is, in the scheme of things, completely trivial once again. A somewhat self-entitled sex pest with a slightly dodgy history (although promoted by May) was made...deputy chief whip. Big deal.

    In the meantime we are facing serious macro-economic issues (along with much of the west) aggravated by past failures to create or maintain adequate storage for gas in the UK. We have soaring inflation and government policies that (5p off fuel duty apart) seem to add to the problem rather than reduce it. We have just been through nearly 6 months of paralysis on the back of a few drinks being consumed in Downing Street. The media are desperate to write and talk about this stuff to the exclusion of all else which makes effective government impossible. It's easy to blame Boris but we seem simply incapable of having a serious conversation anymore.
    Pincher hasn't been protected? He's been made a senior whip - TWICE. Despite the allegations. And instead of being immediately suspended when all this broke he was *directly* protected by Downing Street. Who said they wouldn't withdraw the whip because he was a good lad.

    My point about being unable to recognise reality? That's you that is. Because if you think that this government will even recognise all the horror realities you described you're in a parallel dimension.

    They Don't Care About Us. They just want people to thank them for all the amazing things they have done.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    The interesting thing is that the Tories were able to watch Labour for five years be in chaos (and many of us were in denial on the Labour side) and yet they seem to have learned nothing. Indeed they're going down exactly the same road.

    What is wrong with politics?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
    This sort of system has been talked about for ages, including some using molten metals. It's interesting that this system is very simple, and is purposefully not being used to generate electricity, and instead providing home heating. The energy density must be rather low, although with sand as a medium that might not matter much.

    I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers. ;)
    Surely ice houses were a feature of grand houses owned by rich aristocrats. Ice cream was for the posh.
    They were; but they also worked.

    Generate ice with excess power in the summer, and use it to keep an underground store cold, opened infrequently. An issue is that this goes totally against modern logistics, where things come in and out every minute.
    Notd just rich aristos. Salmon fishers had them on the eastern seaboard, perhaps cooperatively funded or rented (not sure). Just two examples I've come across:

    https://berwickpreservationtrust.co.uk/bankhill-icehouse/
    http://www.archhighland.org.uk/news.asp?newsid=61

    One would think the relatively frequent opening was an issue but evidently not - or at least not every day. The large size does have a vastly better heat flux per unit volume score than a domestic-sized unit, though. And they relied also on an established heat (or rather coolth) gradient within a massive structure, I imagine - homemade permafrost in the surroinding subsoil.
    Yes!!! I remember I passed one whilst walking the Speyside Way! (I must have passed it on my coastwalk, but did not notice it). Apparently the largest surviving ice house in the UK.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tugnet_Ice_House
    That's massive. One does wonder what happened in a mild winter. But the Scots would be used to creating ice in shallow pools anyway - you needed to do that for curling.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    I am so glad those privatised rail companies have ended the British Rail strikes

    ???
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Every now and then, it’s worth remembering this govt planned to have regular televised press conferences.
    https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1544067875006201857
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    @JonathanPieNews: The Government is planning to ‘build 40 new hospitals’ in the same way that I am planning to ‘build myself a new house’ by painting the shed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187

    I am so glad those privatised rail companies have ended the British Rail strikes

    Oh, have they? Or is that irony? I need to check for a relative ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    edited July 5
    Scott_xP said:

    Every now and then, it’s worth remembering this govt planned to have regular televised press conferences.
    https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1544067875006201857

    Yep. iirc I posted at the time it was a disastrous idea and would in the end never actually happen.

    If it had though? Pass the popcorn.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,000
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT - @Yokes concerning news from Ukraine.

    Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.

    I don't think it's that simple, but it's clearly true that Ukraine is being overmatched in the battles in the east.
    Much depends on how much heavy artillery is delivered to Ukraine over the next month or so.
    Half a dozen HIMARS or equivalent won't turn the tide. Several dozen might well.
    It may well be too late now. The Ukranian army has been crushed by artillery fire for more than a month now with very heavy casualties. The units in the Donbas were described as their best and they will be largely ineffective now. Will there be enough forces left by the time that the artillery is equalised? It's looking doubtful. Now that the Russians have learned from their painfully inept tactics in the first weeks of the war the laws of numbers are reasserting themselves and have been since late May.
    With respect, I don't think there's any evidence for that,
    As far as numbers are concerned, the only significant disparity is in artillery. Something the west could fix within weeks if it were sufficiently determined.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015

    Let’s look at useless Starmer’s record.

    When he took over Labour was 26 points behind and lost in a landslide. Nobody here or elsewhere was talking about a Labour comeback. We had articles and discussions about three terms of Johnson.

    Now the discussion is about Hung Parliaments or majorities and how big the Labour lead should be.

    We can debate forever about whether Starmer should be doing better but what he has done up to now is extraordinary. He will go down in history whatever happens, as the man that saved Labour from extinction.

    That's partly true, but I'd argue that Labour's recovery is not much to do with Starmer (aside from the fact he's not Corbyn...) and much more to do with a disastrous year for the government. A year ago the Tories were polling mid-40s; Labour low to mid 30s. Conversation on here was which Labour MPs would cross the floor to the Tories.

    Labour's recovery has not been due to do with inspiring policies from Labour or Starmer's vision for the country; it has been due to a series of totally self-owned mistakes by the government.
    Avoiding mistakes of his own is not nothing. Its classic push and pull factors - he could do better on the latter, but has done well reducing the former.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782

    The interesting thing is that the Tories were able to watch Labour for five years be in chaos (and many of us were in denial on the Labour side) and yet they seem to have learned nothing. Indeed they're going down exactly the same road.

    What is wrong with politics?

    When did this happen?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,210
    JonWC said:

    Good morning everyone! Another fine summer morning!

    On topic. it's not surely just MPs who will becoming restive; I wonder how much the disaster in Tiverton was due to concern about morality in Downing Street affecting Conservative party workers. It cannot be motivating for them, surely. When the Liberal party had the 'problems'with Jeremy Thorpe it certainly caused party workers to reduce their activity to put it mildly!

    Can I also hope that if Mr Seal spost today he feels in a better ]state of mind than he did yesterday. I wish him well!

    A T and H Tory "What's the point in me working my arse off when our MPs cannot get rid of the reason we are going to lose. Let them come down here and get the abuse."

    Edit: actually there were a few more expletives but you get the idea.
    Johnson's superpower is to create a reality denial field around himself. It's why he can lie so convincingly and survive scandals that would fell lesser men.

    Right now, that field covers BoJo, the Cabinet and most ministers. But not most backbenchers, most of the party or most of the country.

    But thanks to the RDF, that can be ignored.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    Carnyx said:

    Off-topic:

    Another helpful potential system to store energy. This sort of thing (a sand battery) has been talked about for yonks; it'll be interesting to see if it is as efficient and helpful as they claim.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61996520

    For some reason I have visions of it overheating and Thunderbirds being called in ... it all seems so futuristic but at the same time as absurdly cheap and simple as a Gerry Anderson model ...
    This sort of system has been talked about for ages, including some using molten metals. It's interesting that this system is very simple, and is purposefully not being used to generate electricity, and instead providing home heating. The energy density must be rather low, although with sand as a medium that might not matter much.

    I wonder if we should bring back ice houses in back gardens rather than use freezers. ;)
    Surely ice houses were a feature of grand houses owned by rich aristocrats. Ice cream was for the posh.
    They were; but they also worked.

    Generate ice with excess power in the summer, and use it to keep an underground store cold, opened infrequently. An issue is that this goes totally against modern logistics, where things come in and out every minute.
    Could this be tapped as a form of air-conditioning, a sort of reverse ground-source heat pump?
    Yes: but it is not necesarily an efficient or workable way to do so. If you only have a few months of warm weather, perhaps. If you have a great a/c demand for much of the year... less so.

    Interestingly, data centres require massive amounts of cooling. Microsoft did an interesting trial of placing a data centre under water, and use the water to cool it. Apparently it worked rather well. I do feel sorry for the on-site admin, though, especially with the nitrogen atmosphere.... ;)

    https://news.microsoft.com/innovation-stories/project-natick-underwater-datacenter/
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54146718
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    Raab should have looked at this before going on air...


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    The Prime Minister’s official spokesman has the hideous dilemma today of deciding whether or not to reveal whether he was misled, and that was the reason he misled journalists. And the problem for Johnson is that on his watch these dilemmas have afflicted a number of those he employs

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1544221597728382977
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    Scott_xP said:

    I guess the question for Conservative MPs/ministers is whether the remedy for the lie that Lord McDonald alleges has been told is procedural (he has written to the standards commissioner) or political (they do something about the person McDonald says has told the lie)
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1544220418583760896

    Interesting that the civil service having been shat on so many times by Johnson's clownshow, may now be circling back in for the kill.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195

    Interestingly, data centres require massive amounts of cooling. Microsoft did an interesting trial of placing a data centre under water, and use the water to cool it. Apparently it worked rather well. I do feel sorry for the on-site admin, though, especially with the nitrogen atmosphere.... ;)

    Did Facebook not build one above the Arctic circle?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT - @Yokes concerning news from Ukraine.

    Generally speaking I work on the principle that the less we hear from Ukraine the less well it's going.

    I don't think it's that simple, but it's clearly true that Ukraine is being overmatched in the battles in the east.
    Much depends on how much heavy artillery is delivered to Ukraine over the next month or so.
    Half a dozen HIMARS or equivalent won't turn the tide. Several dozen might well.
    It may well be too late now. The Ukranian army has been crushed by artillery fire for more than a month now with very heavy casualties. The units in the Donbas were described as their best and they will be largely ineffective now. Will there be enough forces left by the time that the artillery is equalised? It's looking doubtful. Now that the Russians have learned from their painfully inept tactics in the first weeks of the war the laws of numbers are reasserting themselves and have been since late May.
    With respect, I don't think there's any evidence for that,
    As far as numbers are concerned, the only significant disparity is in artillery. Something the west could fix within weeks if it were sufficiently determined.

    As the retired generals on twitter say, just because you retreat under fire from one contested area does not mean the war is lost.
This discussion has been closed.