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Tories drop to new low in Ipsos “fit to govern” tracker – politicalbetting.com
Tories drop to new low in Ipsos “fit to govern” tracker – politicalbetting.com
Of all the recent polling that has been published the above chart from Ipsos looks the most worrying for the Tories and not just the incumbent at number 10.
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Or first even.
SSI - Before Hunter S. Thompson, a PB favorite, penned "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas" (also "F&I on the Campaign Trail") he wrote "Hell's Angels: A Strange and Terrible Saga". Which helped turn Sonny Barger into a (once) living legend.
RIP would be less than appropriate, methinks.
Both Scottish Island byes went to Indies as expecred.
LDs picked up 2 Tory seats, one in Goblin Bercow's old haunt of Buckinghamshire although it should be noted this was a three member Green, Con, Con vote last time so its LDs taking from first placed Greens last time although it was thd 2nd placed Con who's seat was being fought. Strong LD performance, Weak Con, and Greens will i think be disappointed not to have won it.
The other was Bridlington with a massive swing but note that no LDs stood in May 2019 3 member ward and this is the second by election since then as 2 of the 3 passed away, the LDs also won the other in similar fashion so this result is not as surprising as the raw figures suggest. Andrew Teales preview suggests this ward had what may be a unique result a decade ago with UKIP GAIN from rump SDP (Bridlington was after 1992 one of the last redouts of SDPism)
Labour had a tepid hold in Liverpool losing votes to an indy and a functional hold in Ollerton, Notts without much dramatic movement. They gained a seat ftom an indy in Middlesborough they should hold anyway and they gained one from the Tories in S Derbyshire. It was a toss up ward fornerly Lab but recently a hyper marginal Tory ward but thus time ukip's 23% split more for Labour and they took it by 50 votes approx, still a hyper marginal and again, no rush to Labour.
Tories lost the 3 mentioned, held in Wyre (Blackpool South) with a swing to Labour seen but not enough to lose and they easily held in Croydon with a swing from Labour of 2.5% continuing the trend there after Labour bankrupted the council, although former MP and Con to Lab switcher Andrew Pelling standing as an indy may have taken a little off both parties. The Greens and LDs didnt make much progress here.
Summary - tories have a big LD problem, Labour have a finding new votes problem
I have a bad tendency to rush off on mad tangents and pursue them for fifty or sixty pages that get so out of control that I end up burning them, for my own good. One of the few exceptions to this rule occurred very recently, when I slipped up and let about two hundred pages go into print … which caused me a lot of trouble with the tax man, among others, and it taught me a lesson I hope I’ll never forget. Live steady. Don’t fuck around. Give anything weird a wide berth – including people. It’s not worth it. I learned this the hard way, through brutal overindulgence.
I know someone in this line of work (I think) and they are just really good at maths. That's it.
(And playing guitar and making his merry way through a gymnast club at uni)
Pa Woolie has already written them off for next times vote. Possible he will vote Labour reading his runes but he wouldnt admit that to me knowing how 'fond' i am of them. He does have the luxury of not being in Clive Lewis' fiefdom though.
. . . that strange, precious, and wonderful law of the Vasojevici of those times, with its twelve articles, which forbade committing adultery with guests, which called for the castration of woman-chasing clerics, which forbade witch-hunting, and which commanded "that all of the clans of the Vasojevici and the Serbs keep unconditional peace," "that mosques must not be built and the old ones kept up," that "renegades must not be killed, but that it is up to each clan to bring there own back into the faith of their forefathers." Furthermore, that law commanded: "whoever becomes converted to Islam today and accepts the false faith, let him be counted a Turk." Also this: "who does not come to help when the enemies strike at the border, let him have no part of the life of the tribe and let no one give him a maiden to marry"; "whoever steals from the Serbs and is caught, let him pay double and a meal for the peasants. If he is not caught, let him be cursed"; "whosoever steals from the Turks, good for him"; "whatever traitor informs the enemy of the councils of the chieftains, let him and all his kind perish without trace for all time amen. Whoever goes over the heads of his chieftains to seek justice from the alien, let him be accounted guilty"; "whoever from this day hence goes to the vizir at Scutari . . . let him perish without trace." That law even includes the following: "God, and not Satan, has created woman and so let it be for all time, amen. Who speaks the contrary is accursed."
SSI - went a bit wokey there at the end. Certainly NOT big on religious tolerance, but also not devoid of virtue in what was (and beneath the surface still is?) a VERY rough & tough part of the world.
On the transgender thing, which is where my woke tendencies kind of start to reach their limits, I think it is a generational thing. I really don't think it is coming from the schools, they are simply trying to accommodate the choices that teenagers are making around their identity. What is the alternative? That they start insisting that kids conform to their biological sex? That would invite a whole load of trouble from the kids' parents, and would risk pushing kids out of school, ruining their education. And if they accommodate these kids, as I think they have to, then they need to make sure there is no bullying. And so they have to communicate a message of acceptance clearly to all the kids in the school.
I probably come from a place of being rather suspicious of it all, especially the sudden huge increase in numbers. There really are a lot of kids in my daughter's cohort who are going down that route. We have been schooled by my daughter in terms of our attitudes. I don't honestly know if it is a good thing or a bad thing. But like I say, the schools are simply responding to changing attitudes, I really, like 100%, don't believe they are the motive force here at all.
I should add, this is a very difficult environment for schools, they are doing a very good job navigating it and that's why I get really fucking furious when they are the victims of ill informed hatchet jobs from politically motivated hacks who simply want to open a new front in their tedious culture wars.
Highly informed, got a PhD in political science, and writes poetry. He said “Boris Johnson will win again. He acts like a clown but that’s deliberate, so people underestimate him”
i don’t agree, I think Boris is toast this time - and needs to go - I was just impressed at such an insightful judgement of British politics from the Adriatic coast of little Montenegro
Sins, demerits & incompetency of MY side always bugs & depresses & enrages me more than those of others.
And that's saying something.
At some of these patients are terminal.
Its gone so far beyond political ideaology now its ridiculous. They are the weasals in Toad Hall. Just rotten, filthy scoundrels. We all need to be rid of them and the party cleansed.
Dry rot government.
President of the Parliament of Tivat, Montenegro
Tivat has a population of 14,000; so he’s like the leader of Falmouth Council
Bloody good bloke. Very funny. His dad Zlatko is quite mad. I really like the Montenegrins. They are affable, kind, clever and inquisitive. Remind me of the Armenians, a bit
Departure of UCLA and USC guts the (also now misnamed) Pac 12 which is NOT great news for remaining member schools, including University of Washington and Washington State University.
Why did the two El Lay powerhouses just secede from Pa 12? One major reason, in addition to the incredible ineptitude of Pac 12's jock (in US sense) "leadership", is desire to have better access to making the cut for NCAA football playoff games, which are extraordinarily lucrative to schools that make them, plus are good arguments for recruiting the next crop of top talent from USA high schools.
So yes. AND probably NOT a good idea to cruise through Oakland or Berdoo with those colors on your back. Unless you first consult with the late Sonny's lawyer and business manager, who according to NYT is guy named Fritz Clapp.
So maybe the perceived benefit of NATO is greater than that of the EU. But this is an opinion, not a principle.
The point is, you enter into international alliances to obtain benefits that aren't otherwise available and in doing so you submit yourself to the collective decision. The principle is the same whether it's EU, NATO or another treaty.
This isn't a hypothetical point. While people voted Brexit "to take control", they actually voted to have less of the things they presumably want - prosperity, trade, freedoms, good relations with neighbours, influence etc. And what do we do if we decide at some point we want some of those benefits back again? The Brexit problem lies there
Now it’s even given up that.
As you’ve often suggested yourself, there’s nothing left now except a fetishistic, bordering on malevolent, desire to protect wealth - esp. the unearned kind.
I thought you were retired or near retirement, but other comments suggest you are in your twenties or thirties.
It was quite clear at the time, and in memoirs of Labour figures after that, that the SNP made no discernible difference except to timing. And Labour had imposed a referendum where the dead voted no. They can't talk of democracy.
Let’s take just one other point
Brexit voters voted to have less “prosperity, trade, freedoms, good relations with neighbours, influence etc.”?
That may or may not be true, but even if it is true, the same could be said of American revolutionaries in 1776 or Irish revolutionaries in the 1920s. They ended up poorer and less influential and so forth (in Ireland’s case for a long time) and yet neither state would even consider returning to the bountiful British bosom, now. Nor should they
Independence is often painful if not traumatic. Like, say, having a baby
Plus on current polls for the Spanish and Italian elections next year the right is ahead in both nations, on a populist platform in the latter particularly
We need a new word that defines these platforms, “populism” doesn’t quite work since it is inherent that there must be division and enemies within and without who must be punished.
Im a weird fecker with a potty mouth but im not a spring chicken.
Politics especially the stats and figures, chess and letting off steam help keep me off the statistics
Sorry to hear about your mental health issues. The sole benefit of Covid, perhaps, is that there is far greater awareness and open-ness about mental health issues which are far, far more common than we all knew.
Go well.
I can’t think of any.
Have I invented a new rule? A bit like the Amartya Sen’s realisation that democracies don’t have famines?
Putting to one side a whole bunch of mundane reasons - being lied to, dissatisfaction following austerity, etc - the fundamental reasons were that there was a feeling that Europe was something that was being done to people, and they weren't involved in it, and this was only reinforced by the basic message from Remain being, "to Leave would be such an economic calamity that we have no choice but to Remain," which hardly does much to foster a sense of consent.
Remainers/Rejoiners clearly still don't understand this because the tenor of their argument is unchanged. It's still the same argument that Britain is unable to survive on its own. Regardless of what economic stats you can point to in support of this case it is a losing argument, because it only conceives of Britain rejoining the EU reluctantly as a weak supplicant.
I believe that any future Union between Britain and the EU can only be successful if Britain decides to seek such a Union from a position of self-confidence and optimism. This is sadly completely lacking from everything I see from Rejoiners.
One is who is in, who is out. That looks like a pendulum for sure- one that BoJo defied in 2019 but which is now threatening to hit him in the groin in 2023/4/5.
The other is ideas on the right. Or rather, the lack of them. Not every idea generated in a right-leaning garret in the runup to 2010 turned out to be good, but there were ideas, and the Big Society was sort of a theme. Now? Johnson outsourced his thinking to a career psycho who isn't even a Conservative, and then he sacked Cummings. Now, there's almost nothing.
I don’t think I get depressed like some do on this board, but at the same time I’m still not sure I’m “over” it.
I don’t want to go back into lockdown.
How much are the Obamas worth? £50m?
About that
https://www.gobankingrates.com/net-worth/politicians/barack-obama-net-worth/
American politics is run by the 1% for the 1% - on both sides
With both NBA and esp. NFL drawing the bulk of new talent from the Big 10, Pac 12, Southeastern Conference (SEC) and other major universities. Which in athletic terms, strangely enough, do NOT include the likes of Ivy League. Though Duke U and Stanford Junior U (look it up!) are among the athletic as well as academic elite.
And University of Notre Dame is a special case, not exactly tops (or bottoms) academically, but pinnacle of US Catholic education AND historic sporting power as in "The Knute Rockne Story" which features actor Ronald Reagan's most memorable movie line: "win just one for the Gipper".
Win one for the Gipper
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e7rmpjBSR8
Win one for the Zipper
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek6PwrcaYKw
The Obamas didn’t start rich, as far as I’m aware - far from it. Should I be outraged they have made so much money? I don’t know.
The world is riddled with sin, and I don’t regard Obama’s Netflix deal as a great horror.
My ideal is humble, down to earth politicos who retire to Georgian rectories or similar to write their memos, but that world don’t exist.
I agree with you that for some bizarre reason Johnson personally holds sway over RedWall voters. They love him irrespective of what the polls say. The question in, by holding on to them is he sacrificing the Blue Wall?
List of Montenegrin Players in National Basketball Association
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Montenegrin_NBA_players#:~:text=Nikola Vučević, Marko Simonović and,only Montenegrins in the NBA.
One thing, which L can perhaps confirm, is that Montenegrins have tendency toward tallness.
If you plucked out 100 random Montenegrin girls aged 18-25 more than half would be notably or strikingly pretty, is my guess. Perhaps a world record. The young men are likewise tall rangy and handsome
The Croatians are similarly beautiful but they have a surliness, in my experience, That moody Slav thing. The Montenegrins don’t appear to have that at all, dunno why. They are more like Russians in their warm generosity
Here ends my outrageous list of ridiculous generalisations
Tonight, they are showing an opera and have sold 4,000 tickets.
Also ask who is SUPPOSED to have right of way, going uphill OR going down. Along with important caveats, such as in WV where coal trucks ALWAYS have ROW.
Personally think I'd hire a driver. Esp. if someone else is paying the bill.
There IS that new superhighway to nowhere, built by Chinese under IIRC the previous POMNE:
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2021/05/07/the-billion-dollar-motorway-leading-montenegro-to-nowhere
George W Bush of course still lives on a ranch in Texas on the other side of the country from NYC or California or DC
https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/floridas-dont-say-gay-law-takes-effect-schools-roll-lgbtq-restrictions-rcna36143
South Vietnam? Certainly plenty of folks down there with buyer's (or seller's?) remorse re: reunification.
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1542940364771921920
https://twitter.com/ChinaEmbIreland/status/1542908356448354304
Thats probably the closest UK related example. The UK wasnt keen on it either as it would have set a precedent they didnt want - i.e. losing control of the Commons to blocs from integrated colonies
One sign of Croat subjugation (maybe) is that the invented (or popularized) the necktie = cravat.