politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the Betfair #IndyRef price has changed over the past mo
Comments
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Salmond is in a league of his own, on his own planet.NickPalmer said:
Sturgeon is OK but not in Salmond's league, or Brown's. Wouldn't they have an open contest?Edin_Rokz said:
And every Labour PMSP has "Gordon Brown for First Minister" under their name on the Ballot Paper........Oooops, sorry forgot Salmond already has pulled that trick, and it will not be allowed again.RobD said:FPT @Hugh
I kinda hope Gordon stands for FM at the next election!
Apart from which, if there is a No Vote, Salmond will be replaced by Sturgeon within 3 days.
Betfair drifting without any particular movement, so perhaps a coincidence, though obviously much more money to be earned on currency speculation.Eastwinger said:The £ is trading well up in the last couple of hours.
Coincidence? or poll leak of good news for No?0 -
But won't happen.Stuart_Dickson said:
Agreed.stodge said:
The first thing that needs to happen on Friday, whatever the result, is for both sides (and that includes their supporters in the blogosphere) to show some generosity and understanding toward their opponents.jayfdee said:A divorce rarely ends with both sides remaining friends.
But I endorse your sentiments.
Whatever the result there will be a generation of dissatisfaction in Scotland,and if a yes plunges Ruk and Scotland into recession again there will be even more dissatisfaction.
I hope for a no,but will plan my affairs accordingly.
It would be good to see Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Farage and Salmond sharing a platform in Edinburgh
Insults, jibes and yes, even a bit of physicality have been the warp and weft of political campaigns for two centuries but after Friday we all need to take account of the result and move on (subject to those on here who will claim they got it right all along even those who've predicted both a YES and a NO win at various times).0 -
Blair's theory was that the anger of the public could be dissipated by politicians acting as lightening rods for discontent. Politicians taking the rage head-on acted to dissolve the danger.
Blair is not a politician I care for, but it is idle to deny he knew how to win elections -- or, less kindly, to manipulate the electorate.
So, I wonder whether the public humiliations of Miliband, Cameron and Clegg in Scotland since the YouGov poll will have served their purpose.
It is something I never thought I would say, but I almost felt sorry for Ed Miliband today.
Almost.
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Is rumours of a Chinese stimulus causing a risk rally/USD selloff believe it or not..Eastwinger said:The £ is trading well up in the last couple of hours.
Coincidence? or poll leak of good news for No?0 -
Great to see you rejecting The Dark Side. You are very welcome!No_Offence_Alan said:
As I said a couple of days ago, I got on Yes 45% - 50% at 2/1.Stuart_Dickson said:BETTING POST:
If you are a NO backer, get over to SKYBET:
No vote % , 50.01% - 55.00% 5/4
ABOVE EVS!!!!
Just compare to the best NO price of 2/7 !
I am voting Yes though, just hedging my bets.0 -
Thanks Nick. On a personal note I'm not sure if you are standing again next year in Broxtowe but if so good luck. Have a lot of family in Notts and Beeston is a fab part of the city from memory.NickPalmer said:Welcome AllyPally! Quiet here tonight - waiting for the polls, I guess.
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Thanks.isam said:
It was when man utd were well clear of Arsenal in 1998 but we came back and won it with two games to spareStuart_Dickson said:Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?
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Some idiot has just bet on Shetland voting highest yes%
BetfairSB down from 100/1 to 66/1.
I suspect the bookies will lose money on this market. Dundee is already out from 1/4 to 4/6, but no-one seems sure of where the value lies....
You can discount a handful of these as 1000/1 shots. I also think the western isles are poor value. As I said previously, I'm on a few of the long-shots.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote0 -
Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are talking about.SeanT said:If postal votes are running at the level reported, then a huge turnout might not be quite so good for YES as Stuart Dickson says.
It everyone is voting then it will be apathetic NOs, the old but worried, as much as teenie YESsers, enthused and whacked out on meth.0 -
Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.0 -
Even Fitalass recognised the construct was a bit rubbishy. I'll say no more.Alanbrooke said:
come come divvie, Black Douglas has that title sewn up.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
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If there's a very high turnout on Thursday and, as a result, many voters can't vote due to polling stations being too busy, where does that leave us if there's a close win for one side or another?
We've seen queues for voting in General Elections which resulted in people missing the chance to vote and don't we all expect the turnout on Thursday to be considerably higher?
Could end up in the courts.0 -
The campaign has become nasty with both yes and no brutalising the other. A Yes will lead to large scale protests in the streets. A no will lead to violent large scale protests in the streets.
And that's just in Scotland. A yes gets Cameron resigned before the Tory conference. A no gets Cameron facing down a mass rebellion on his backbenchers who point out that he can't govern by decree and giving Scotland the moon on a stick isn't acceptable. He's toast either way.
And if it is a yes? Stand by your beds - its going to be a smashing day on the financial markets.0 -
I'm sure its been stated that anyone in the queue at 10pm will be able to vote.Monty said:If there's a very high turnout on Thursday and, as a result, many voters can't vote due to polling stations being too busy, where does that leave us if there's a close win for one side or another?
We've seen queues for voting in General Elections which resulted in people missing the chance to vote and don't we all expect the turnout on Thursday to be considerably higher?
Could end up in the courts.0 -
I read somewhere they were allowing all those in the queue at 10pm to vote. That's common sense, especially as there's no exit poll.Monty said:If there's a very high turnout on Thursday and, as a result, many voters can't vote due to polling stations being too busy, where does that leave us if there's a close win for one side or another?
We've seen queues for voting in General Elections which resulted in people missing the chance to vote and don't we all expect the turnout on Thursday to be considerably higher?
Could end up in the courts.0 -
If anyone wants to lay UKIP at 10 on the H & M by election on Betfair. . .0
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But does anyone have an estimate of what portion of the total vote postal is likely toMaxPB said:
Good for No, but there is hope yet for Yes on polling day. I think the Yes GOTV campaign will bbe better, but Salmond going about talking of a No collapse is completely idiotic as it will galvanise the No side and make Yes voters complacent.Theuniondivvie said:Was told tonight that the postal turnout (returns of postal votes issued) is 95% which seems incredibly high. Make of it what you will.
be?The bigger this is the bigger the task for the yes vote on polling day
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reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.0 -
Thank you! Yes indeed - 1-3 favourite when I last looked at Ladbrokes. Beeston is just finishing its tram construction - people very fed up with the works but starting to look forward to it. Apart from that it's a great place to live!AllyPally_Rob said:
Thanks Nick. On a personal note I'm not sure if you are standing again next year in Broxtowe but if so good luck. Have a lot of family in Notts and Beeston is a fab part of the city from memory.NickPalmer said:Welcome AllyPally! Quiet here tonight - waiting for the polls, I guess.
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No it was on CH4 news. I would never enter the Louden Tavern.SeanT said:
Think you may have approached the singularity of PB anecdotage. A Yesser claiming he went to a unionist pub where he claims he met a unionist woman who then, he claims, told him that all her friends were, she claimed, voting YES.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:Hmm a staunch unionist pub in Glasgow. Woman says no, not a surprise. However what she said was interesting. Many of her friends were yes. Very eye opening.
I salute you.
Roger "the cab driver from Nice airport to Villefranche told me Cameron is an idiot" Tampon-Advertiser would be proud.
http://www.thelouden.co.uk/
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If your mysterious email correspondents are telling you that teenage Yes supporters are "whacked out on meth" then I would be just a tad wary of their "intelligence".SeanT said:
I don't have a scooby. But some people privately emailing me, since my various Telegraph blogs on indyref, do.Stuart_Dickson said:
Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are talking about.SeanT said:If postal votes are running at the level reported, then a huge turnout might not be quite so good for YES as Stuart Dickson says.
It everyone is voting then it will be apathetic NOs, the old but worried, as much as teenie YESsers, enthused and whacked out on meth.
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I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.0 -
Just back from my day trip to Edinburgh.
My focus group, tells me, that most people want the uncertainty to be over one way or the other.
Both sides quietly pessimistic.0 -
Not necessarily. The healing process needs to begin as soon as the final vote is cast. BOTH sides need to turn off the insults and recognise the other had some valid points.TheWatcher said:
There's too much bad blood. It will take years to undo the damage has been done.
NO has made some substantial offers on powers to the Scottish Parliament and it requires Cameron to face down his more recalcitrant backbenchers while recognising that DevoMax for Scotland raises some difficult questions about the governance of England in particular.
If YES prevails, Salmond needs to tone down his socialist rhetoric and start sounding a lot more business-friendly and understanding to the substantial NO minority especially in the Borders. An independent Scotland simply cannot afford a flight of capital and talent.
BOTH sides need to emphasise that the vote is the start of a process and that it's business as usual with goodwill and compromise on both sides. This is as much to placate international markets as to reassure anxious individuals.
Talk of border controls, people not accepting Scottish banknotes and businesses relocating may be all part of campaign rhetoric but it has no place in the post-vote discourse.
More than anything else, David Cameron and Alex Salmond need to be seen to be acting constructively and in an atmosphere of compromise and business and that can happen whether the vote is YES or NO.
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Very fair summary. I was involved in the Glenrothes effort and came home believing we'd lost - as I recall, it's the only really bad tip I've posted here.Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
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Not gonna happen. Cameron is chicken.stodge said:
NO has made some substantial offers on powers to the Scottish Parliament and it requires Cameron to face down his more recalcitrant backbenchers while recognising that DevoMax for Scotland raises some difficult questions about the governance of England in particular.TheWatcher said:
There's too much bad blood. It will take years to undo the damage has been done.
Vote Yes.0 -
But it's the greatest pub in the world!Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
No it was on CH4 news. I would never enter the Louden Tavern.SeanT said:
Think you may have approached the singularity of PB anecdotage. A Yesser claiming he went to a unionist pub where he claims he met a unionist woman who then, he claims, told him that all her friends were, she claimed, voting YES.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:Hmm a staunch unionist pub in Glasgow. Woman says no, not a surprise. However what she said was interesting. Many of her friends were yes. Very eye opening.
I salute you.
Roger "the cab driver from Nice airport to Villefranche told me Cameron is an idiot" Tampon-Advertiser would be proud.
http://www.thelouden.co.uk/0 -
Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.0 -
People don't trust politicians - it's the default. Whatever they collectively say, will likely be viewed with mistrust by both sides.stodge said:
Not necessarily. The healing process needs to begin as soon as the final vote is cast. BOTH sides need to turn off the insults and recognise the other had some valid points.TheWatcher said:
There's too much bad blood. It will take years to undo the damage has been done.
NO has made some substantial offers on powers to the Scottish Parliament and it requires Cameron to face down his more recalcitrant backbenchers while recognising that DevoMax for Scotland raises some difficult questions about the governance of England in particular.
If YES prevails, Salmond needs to tone down his socialist rhetoric and start sounding a lot more business-friendly and understanding to the substantial NO minority especially in the Borders. An independent Scotland simply cannot afford a flight of capital and talent.
BOTH sides need to emphasise that the vote is the start of a process and that it's business as usual with goodwill and compromise on both sides. This is as much to placate international markets as to reassure anxious individuals.
Talk of border controls, people not accepting Scottish banknotes and businesses relocating may be all part of campaign rhetoric but it has no place in the post-vote discourse.
More than anything else, David Cameron and Alex Salmond need to be seen to be acting constructively and in an atmosphere of compromise and business and that can happen whether the vote is YES or NO.
Money is fleeing and will continue to do so, businesses will choose to invest elsewhere. They won't risk their shareholders capital. Those south of the border will be very wary of accepting Scottish notes. That's a reality.
Whatever is said, it's going to be damage limitation not rebuilding.0 -
I'm sure you've been told before about spoiling perfectly good rants with award facts, please think about the ranters feelings before doing it again.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.0 -
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch · 1h
#ScotlandDecides ... Final @OpiniumResearch #indyref YES/NO #indypoll out tomorrow (Wednesday) for the @Telegraph ... Online later tonight.0 -
It's hardly Blair's theory but he was entirely correct. Both John Major and Gordon Brown fulfilled this role and Nick Clegg probably will next year.YBarddCwsc said:Blair's theory was that the anger of the public could be dissipated by politicians acting as lightening rods for discontent. Politicians taking the rage head-on acted to dissolve the danger.
Blair is not a politician I care for, but it is idle to deny he knew how to win elections -- or, less kindly, to manipulate the electorate.
So, I wonder whether the public humiliations of Miliband, Cameron and Clegg in Scotland since the YouGov poll will have served their purpose.
It is something I never thought I would say, but I almost felt sorry for Ed Miliband today.
Almost.
Major surely knew from a long way out that the 1997 election was going to be a heavy defeat but if the electors voted against him rather than against the Conservative Party, it gave the Party a chance to rebuild from a clean slate.
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What the hell is Cameron playing at exactly? Just promising to hand out our cash like a rich aunty. It's not your money you idiot!
Obviously Milliband and Clegg are going to act in their own blatant interests (the idea that the lefty strongholds can have self determination but nowhere else was particularly risible), but why does Cameron have to go along with them like a complete wet lettuce?
It's like he doesn't ever want the Tories to win an election ever again.0 -
Nick, surely your vote Labour tip must be the all time worst ?NickPalmer said:
Very fair summary. I was involved in the Glenrothes effort and came home believing we'd lost - as I recall, it's the only really bad tip I've posted here.Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.0 -
It may be but i think i'll pass.Theuniondivvie said:
But it's the greatest pub in the world!Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
No it was on CH4 news. I would never enter the Louden Tavern.SeanT said:
Think you may have approached the singularity of PB anecdotage. A Yesser claiming he went to a unionist pub where he claims he met a unionist woman who then, he claims, told him that all her friends were, she claimed, voting YES.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:Hmm a staunch unionist pub in Glasgow. Woman says no, not a surprise. However what she said was interesting. Many of her friends were yes. Very eye opening.
I salute you.
Roger "the cab driver from Nice airport to Villefranche told me Cameron is an idiot" Tampon-Advertiser would be proud.
http://www.thelouden.co.uk/
Still the CH4 report from there was very surprising.
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Irvine Welsh, 2007Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/cultural-policies-lead-irvine-welsh-to-back-snp-1.827460
I'm still waiting for your apology. Now would be good.0 -
Is there an ETA on ICM and Survation this evening?
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Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.0 -
Brown could never, ever, repay the debt he ran up.Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.0 -
Opinium poll out by 9.15pm tonight
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Shaun Wright needed to go, but the whole media and political establishment is using him as a scapegoat. This entire thing is being painted as political incompetence in one place. It's not even being mentioned that it happened elsewhere.
What about the other twenty towns?
Where are the politicians calling for investigations there?
Where are the journalists worth their salt bringing attention to injustice?
If you're a person in a position of power to bring attention to this, and you're doing nothing, shame on you.0 -
Playing a major role in saving us from complete collapse when the bankers wrecked the global finances, then doing similar saving the Union.TheWatcher said:
Brown could never, ever, repay the debt he owes.Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.
Put that next to David Cameron's achievements. Er. Big Society Day?0 -
Dunfermline was also a bit of a surprise result.NickPalmer said:
Very fair summary. I was involved in the Glenrothes effort and came home believing we'd lost - as I recall, it's the only really bad tip I've posted here.Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
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This one has come out of thin air.Clegg goes on radio to come up with the most snivelling,cowardly,mendacious excuse.The bedroom tax is all the fault of the opposition Labour party,according this pathological liar.How on earth can anyone believe a word Nick Clegg says?How could there be a coalition with a poisonous snake?0
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Thanks for the footy tips. I made a hash of my reply mixing Champions league and Premiership betting. The Costa e/w tip was a good one.isam said:
It was when man utd were well clear of Arsenal in 1998 but we came back and won it with two games to spareStuart_Dickson said:Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?
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Not if it's done by entrenching a permanent bribe to Scotland from England and Wales.Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.0 -
Did they ever find the register for that election?NickPalmer said:
Very fair summary. I was involved in the Glenrothes effort and came home believing we'd lost - as I recall, it's the only really bad tip I've posted here.Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.0 -
Lloyd Rees @Lloyd_Rees 7m
My essential #indyref reading over the past few days has been @MSmithsonPB's Politic Betting blog: http://politicalbetting.com - brilliant read.0 -
@ Peter_The_Punter
I've just caught up with your post from the last thread. Your posts on turnout (to me at least) were a bit ambiguous!
We got into a discussion last week. You said, "It was 93% at the Quebec referendum. General election turnout there tended to be a bit lower than Scotland, and I can't see any other major relevant differences apart possibly from the state of the Register." and "I'd be surprised by 93% or more, but not flabbergasted."
I seem to recall you also said you expected every man or woman who was even vaguely sentient and could walk, crawl or be carried to the polling station would vote.
I took it from those posts of yours that you were expecting a 90%+ turnout. I challenged you on it as I thought that was too high - and I think Nick Palmer might have done too - but it seems we're now in agreement at c.83%. Perhaps we always were.
I bought several good chunks on Betfair at 75%+ when it was priced at more or less evens.
Very glad I did, but of course now I'm regretting I didn't buy more.
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As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.0 -
Tipping point.MikeSmithson said:Lloyd Rees @Lloyd_Rees 7m
My essential #indyref reading over the past few days has been @MSmithsonPB's Politic Betting blog: http://politicalbetting.com - brilliant read.0 -
Once again, I'm not convinced. The sight of politicians working together and able to act other than in an adversarial way will carry huge weight. No doubt the printed media (which has, along with social media, done so much to build up the hysteria on both sides) will try to exacerbate any problems.TheWatcher said:
People don't trust politicians - it's the default. Whatever they collectively say, will likely be viewed with mistrust by both sides.
Money is fleeing and will continue to do so, businesses will choose to invest elsewhere. They won't risk their shareholders capital. Those south of the border will be very wary of accepting Scottish notes. That's a reality.
Whatever is said, it's going to be damage limitation not rebuilding.
One thing that should happen immediately, whatever happens, is for Cameron and Salmond to convene a forum of business leaders with the aim of telling them that the campaign rhetoric is over and it's back to business as usual but of course if some businesses are determined to move their brass plates down south that's one thing - it's the jobs in Scotland that matter.
As for the banknotes, if it's a YES, we need some serious leadership from George Osborne, Danny Alexander and Mark Carney (and others) to reassure and convince that for now nothing has changed.
I do accept that for some the process of reconciliation is going to be very difficult. That doesn't mean it needs to be made more difficult by the use of extravagant language or by the condoning of anti-social activities.
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As a matter of interest, did the Glenrothes voting records ever turn up?No_Offence_Alan said:
Dunfermline was also a bit of a surprise result.NickPalmer said:
Very fair summary. I was involved in the Glenrothes effort and came home believing we'd lost - as I recall, it's the only really bad tip I've posted here.Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/4446610/SNP-demands-inquiry-into-missing-Glenrothes-by-election-records.html
The tinfoil hatters will be in form on Friday, no doubt. The only real question is which way the lizards want the vote to go.0 -
That tim bloke always claimed it was Darling who saved the World.Hugh said:
Playing a major role in saving us from complete collapse when the bankers wrecked the global finances, then doing similar saving the Union.TheWatcher said:
Brown could never, ever, repay the debt he owes.Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.
Put that next to David Cameron's achievements. Er. Big Society Day?
It would have been fun watching you debate with him.0 -
I am just as ignorant too.It was wonderful to see Pitlochry again.I spent part of an idyllic summer in Crieff,many moons ago,though I now prefer Ireland and Holland.I do feel more comfortable on the eastern flatlands.You don't have as much sky up there.Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
0 -
Paddy Power, Ireland Lisbon I, 12 June 2008Stuart_Dickson said:Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2008_(Ireland)
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/bookie-admits-blunder-after-yes-payout-1.824296
http://www.bettingpro.com/category/political-betting/paddypower-makes-lisbon-treaty-referendum-blunder-200806130001/0 -
Why are all these polls suddenly coming out a day early?0
-
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.Alanbrooke said:
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.0 -
Irvine Welsh 2014.MonikerDiCanio said:
Irvine Welsh, 2007Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/cultural-policies-lead-irvine-welsh-to-back-snp-1.827460
I'm still waiting for your apology. Now would be good.
'But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it’s only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I’ve moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it’s nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn’t distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party, I’ve never voted for them and would find it hard to do so, for the same reasons I can no longer vote Labour and will obviously never vote Conservative – it’s not in my internationalist DNA. Having long given up on parties, I’m stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn’t want it any other way.'
http://tinyurl.com/londfkm
You can, as malcolm might say, stick your request for an apology up your erchie.0 -
A polling station clerk will run out and draw a chalk mark at 10pm, apparently...Monty said:If there's a very high turnout on Thursday and, as a result, many voters can't vote due to polling stations being too busy, where does that leave us if there's a close win for one side or another?
We've seen queues for voting in General Elections which resulted in people missing the chance to vote and don't we all expect the turnout on Thursday to be considerably higher?
Could end up in the courts.
What could go wrong?
0 -
- "So, Scotland and England have been involved in something of a 300 year arranged marriage. And look, I will be the first one to acknowledge, England has been a little bit of a dick since the honeymoon."
http://www.dailydot.com/politics/john-oliver-scottish-independence/?fbdd0 -
Interesting data points here: http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2014/9/12/181444/849
What is interesting is that the poor and working class really are swinging strongly behind Yes - people who felt before that voting changed nothing. If there's a marginal No vote, many of these voters will turn their backs on Labour. If that's the case, there'll be another SNP landslide at the next Holyrood elections and another fresh mandate for a referendum.
It would seem that the result that would provide most stability going forward is the Yes vote.
My caveat is that many of those who voted SNP in 2011 were not indy fans although that may have changed..0 -
What a complete shambles Ed miliband's walk about was,poor by labour and the no campaign.0
-
No is going to win, and win big. I'd be very surprised if Yes makes 40%, and I don't even think Dundee will vote Yes.SeanT said:
Some of us - e.g. me -Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/
have been warning this was close for a YEAR.
That said, as of this moment, I expect a very narrow NO. I think the NHS thing, Gordon Brown, Cameron's speeches, Trafalgar (yes yes, irrelevant luvvies), and the Vow have just tipped it in NO's direction.
But it's still damnably close.
You should have met tim, a prior Labour poster on here. He is given some ludicrous credibility by those that never actually conversed with him. Yet he was adamant NO would win easily even as I insisted he was completely wrong, and far too complacent. Cf NPXMP, who gave me the same reaction.0 -
Home Secretary is the hardest job in the cabinet imo. Your job is just waiting for shit to happen and there's no thanks or kudos. Given some of the more recent ministers in the post, May has done a better job than most, accepting of course that there are many things which have gone wrong on her watch.Socrates said:
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.Alanbrooke said:
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.0 -
Yeah, two are today, four(?) tomorrow, and one Thursday am..Alistair said:0 -
They want a No. J.P.Morgan, Merrill Lynch, even that horrible old vulture George Soros have been queuing up to endorse No. I'm as anti-establishment as they come, so I don't relish being on the same side as the transatlantic financial elite, however, in this instance I am looking at the bigger picture, and frankly this is a dress rehearsal for the whole of Britain coming out of the EU. When that happens we really will see some lizardy fury.foxinsoxuk said:
As a matter of interest, did the Glenrothes voting records ever turn up?No_Offence_Alan said:
Dunfermline was also a bit of a surprise result.NickPalmer said:
Very fair summary. I was involved in the Glenrothes effort and came home believing we'd lost - as I recall, it's the only really bad tip I've posted here.Theuniondivvie said:
I know you're a bit of an ignoramus about all things Scottish (among other things), so I'll translate. Labour thought they'd lose Glenrothes, the SNP thought they'd win, both were genuinely surprised at the result. The Yes & No campaigns are publicly bullish but both know it's too close to call, as attested to by the polls and the Vow. Some Scottish enlightenment fur ye.MonikerDiCanio said:
Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.Theuniondivvie said:
So many inaccuracies in one post.AllyPally_Rob said:Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..
This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/4446610/SNP-demands-inquiry-into-missing-Glenrothes-by-election-records.html
The tinfoil hatters will be in form on Friday, no doubt. The only real question is which way the lizards want the vote to go.
0 -
Yeah yeah, so you keep saying.rcs1000 said:
No is going to win, and win big. I'd be very surprised if Yes makes 40%, and I don't even think Dundee will vote Yes.SeanT said:
Some of us - e.g. me -Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/
have been warning this was close for a YEAR.
That said, as of this moment, I expect a very narrow NO. I think the NHS thing, Gordon Brown, Cameron's speeches, Trafalgar (yes yes, irrelevant luvvies), and the Vow have just tipped it in NO's direction.
But it's still damnably close.
You should have met tim, a prior Labour poster on here. He is given some ludicrous credibility by those that never actually conversed with him. Yet he was adamant NO would win easily even as I insisted he was completely wrong, and far too complacent. Cf NPXMP, who gave me the same reaction.
Care to tell us on what you are basing this?
Not just one of those "make a bold assertion and if by chance it comes in I'll look great" things is it?0 -
Errr, Grab a Granny? Really?
Grab a granny: Gordon Brown tells elderly Scots to urge young voters to back the Union
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11099711/Grab-a-granny-Gordon-Brown-tells-elderly-Scots-to-urge-young-voters-to-back-the-Union.html0 -
You could say it's darling's fault if yes wins,the second debate was a total disaster for Darling and the no campaign,the polls narrowed after that.TheWatcher said:
That tim bloke always claimed it was Darling who saved the World.Hugh said:
Playing a major role in saving us from complete collapse when the bankers wrecked the global finances, then doing similar saving the Union.TheWatcher said:
Brown could never, ever, repay the debt he owes.Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.
Put that next to David Cameron's achievements. Er. Big Society Day?
It would have been fun watching you debate with him.
0 -
Thanks.viewcode said:
Paddy Power, Ireland Lisbon I, 12 June 2008Stuart_Dickson said:Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-eighth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2008_(Ireland)
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/bookie-admits-blunder-after-yes-payout-1.824296
http://www.bettingpro.com/category/political-betting/paddypower-makes-lisbon-treaty-referendum-blunder-200806130001/
0 -
An effective minister doesn't "wait for shit to happen". They look for problems before they occur and remove the stress points before they explode. Four years in and she hasn't stopped these fuck-ups happening, she hasn't reduced immigration and she's unilaterally handed powers over to Brussels, eliminating long-standing British liberties in the process. That's a terrible record.Alanbrooke said:
Home Secretary is the hardest job in the cabinet imo. Your job is just waiting for shit to happen and there's no thanks or kudos. Given some of the more recent ministers in the post, May has done a better job than most, accepting of course that there are many things which have gone wrong on her watch.Socrates said:
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.Alanbrooke said:
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.0 -
An interesting side effect of the Sindy ref campaign in Wales - support for Welsh Independence has been stuck at around 10 % for years - but two recent opinion polls have support at 17 % and now at 28 %. A Yes result in Scotland could finally wake up the Welsh voters ...0
-
Sweet.Penddu said:An interesting side effect of the Sindy ref campaign in Wales - support for Welsh Independence has been stuck at around 10 % for years - but two recent opinion polls have support at 17 % and now at 28 %. A Yes result in Scotland could finally wake up the Welsh voters ...
0 -
I am afraid that in many areas it will soon be out of the politician's hands. Over the last 2 week our large order book has been in deep freeze as customers wait to see what will happen. If there is a Yes vote they will want answers and fast. Telling them to sit around until Salmond tells us what is really going to happen will not be the answer they want.
We like several companies I know have prepared in case of Yes to put our company into a redundancy situation to give us maximum opportunity to move resources as needed. The plan is that we will split our company and create separate English and Scottish parts. I have no doubt that the English / Wales part will continue to thrive but it is unclear if a standalone Scottish company is viable. At the moment 90% of our staff stay in Scotland afterwards it will be between 40% and 0%.
There will be a period of chaos as assets and people move over the next year. New businesses will be created in Scotland but many more will be moved out or closed down. Unemployment will spike upwards sharply. If the new Scottish Government shows it is capable, in a few years, business will start to invest again. Probably after a number of large bribes as the Irish have done. The structure of the economy will change dramatically. At the moment 65% of Scottish exports are to rest of UK. If you take Eire they export only 14% to the UK. Scotland will have the safety net of oil but on the other hand it has a much older and less educated population than Eire. As with Eire the economy will become highly volatile with very good and very bad years. Unemployment may never get back down to the present levels as domestic businesses will be loathe to make long term staff commitments. Taxes will be high, VAT of 23% as in Eire, is quite possible and prices will also spike upwards. The wealthy will stay wealthy by being based in England if necessary which will become more right wing. The NHS will survive but pay for surgeons especially will have to go up to keep them. Education will continue to fail the kids. Universities will struggle. No-one has mentioned the fact that fees will now be free for English students which is a great irony as they will be one of the big winners. The other people who will benefit greatly are the Scottish politicians. Expect big pay rises and fancy new cars all around.
0 -
Gamely blathering on about immigrants even now.Socrates said:
An effective minister doesn't "wait for shit to happen". They look for problems before they occur and remove the stress points before they explode. Four years in and she hasn't stopped these fuck-ups happening, she hasn't reduced immigration and she's unilaterally handed powers over to Brussels, eliminating long-standing British liberties in the process. That's a terrible record.Alanbrooke said:
Home Secretary is the hardest job in the cabinet imo. Your job is just waiting for shit to happen and there's no thanks or kudos. Given some of the more recent ministers in the post, May has done a better job than most, accepting of course that there are many things which have gone wrong on her watch.Socrates said:
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.Alanbrooke said:
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.0 -
Your having a go about immigration. The only way to change it is to change the policy. Changing the minister will achieve zilch.Socrates said:
An effective minister doesn't "wait for shit to happen". They look for problems before they occur and remove the stress points before they explode. Four years in and she hasn't stopped these fuck-ups happening, she hasn't reduced immigration and she's unilaterally handed powers over to Brussels, eliminating long-standing British liberties in the process. That's a terrible record.Alanbrooke said:
Home Secretary is the hardest job in the cabinet imo. Your job is just waiting for shit to happen and there's no thanks or kudos. Given some of the more recent ministers in the post, May has done a better job than most, accepting of course that there are many things which have gone wrong on her watch.Socrates said:
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.Alanbrooke said:
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.0 -
I like Gordon Brown going around speaking up for the Union. Don't know how this is grabbing a granny though. Yap at a youngster? Trap a teenager? Groan at a grandchild? Blether at a Bairn? *gets coat*TheScreamingEagles said:Errr, Grab a Granny? Really?
Grab a granny: Gordon Brown tells elderly Scots to urge young voters to back the Union
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11099711/Grab-a-granny-Gordon-Brown-tells-elderly-Scots-to-urge-young-voters-to-back-the-Union.html0 -
In the past, you've blamed Theresa May for things that aren't her responsibility, something tells me, if she could walk on water, you'd criticise her for not being able to swim.Socrates said:
An effective minister doesn't "wait for shit to happen". They look for problems before they occur and remove the stress points before they explode. Four years in and she hasn't stopped these fuck-ups happening, she hasn't reduced immigration and she's unilaterally handed powers over to Brussels, eliminating long-standing British liberties in the process. That's a terrible record.Alanbrooke said:
Home Secretary is the hardest job in the cabinet imo. Your job is just waiting for shit to happen and there's no thanks or kudos. Given some of the more recent ministers in the post, May has done a better job than most, accepting of course that there are many things which have gone wrong on her watch.Socrates said:
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.Alanbrooke said:
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.0 -
Any hope of the (northern) Irish following suit?Penddu said:An interesting side effect of the Sindy ref campaign in Wales - support for Welsh Independence has been stuck at around 10 % for years - but two recent opinion polls have support at 17 % and now at 28 %. A Yes result in Scotland could finally wake up the Welsh voters ...
0 -
Not from the conversation in the office today in deepest Gwent. What polls by the way?Penddu said:An interesting side effect of the Sindy ref campaign in Wales - support for Welsh Independence has been stuck at around 10 % for years - but two recent opinion polls have support at 17 % and now at 28 %. A Yes result in Scotland could finally wake up the Welsh voters ...
0 -
Another side effect is that the devomax or independence wrangling will dominate the political news for a month or more, wiping out Carswells stunt by election.Penddu said:An interesting side effect of the Sindy ref campaign in Wales - support for Welsh Independence has been stuck at around 10 % for years - but two recent opinion polls have support at 17 % and now at 28 %. A Yes result in Scotland could finally wake up the Welsh voters ...
Very poor timing by him.0 -
out of interest what are they planning to use for money ?Penddu said:An interesting side effect of the Sindy ref campaign in Wales - support for Welsh Independence has been stuck at around 10 % for years - but two recent opinion polls have support at 17 % and now at 28 %. A Yes result in Scotland could finally wake up the Welsh voters ...
0 -
If it ends up absolutely even will they toss a coin?0
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No, we get to do it all over again in a couple of months time.MikeSmithson said:If it ends up absolutely even will they toss a coin?
0 -
why would they vote for a 40% cut in their standard of living ?audreyanne said:
Any hope of the (northern) Irish following suit?Penddu said:An interesting side effect of the Sindy ref campaign in Wales - support for Welsh Independence has been stuck at around 10 % for years - but two recent opinion polls have support at 17 % and now at 28 %. A Yes result in Scotland could finally wake up the Welsh voters ...
0 -
No, a caber.MikeSmithson said:If it ends up absolutely even will they toss a coin?
0 -
Salmond vs Cameron in a cage match under WWE rules according to the Edinburgh agreement.MikeSmithson said:If it ends up absolutely even will they toss a coin?
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Is there anything in life that gives you pleasure? Because I'll be buggered if I can think what it could be.Socrates said:
An effective minister doesn't "wait for shit to happen". They look for problems before they occur and remove the stress points before they explode. Four years in and she hasn't stopped these fuck-ups happening, she hasn't reduced immigration and she's unilaterally handed powers over to Brussels, eliminating long-standing British liberties in the process. That's a terrible record.Alanbrooke said:
Home Secretary is the hardest job in the cabinet imo. Your job is just waiting for shit to happen and there's no thanks or kudos. Given some of the more recent ministers in the post, May has done a better job than most, accepting of course that there are many things which have gone wrong on her watch.Socrates said:
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.Alanbrooke said:
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.0 -
Droaning on about immigrants and muslims on the internet would be my guess.saddened said:
Is there anything in life that gives you pleasure? Because I'll be buggered if I can think what it could be.Socrates said:
An effective minister doesn't "wait for shit to happen". They look for problems before they occur and remove the stress points before they explode. Four years in and she hasn't stopped these fuck-ups happening, she hasn't reduced immigration and she's unilaterally handed powers over to Brussels, eliminating long-standing British liberties in the process. That's a terrible record.Alanbrooke said:
Home Secretary is the hardest job in the cabinet imo. Your job is just waiting for shit to happen and there's no thanks or kudos. Given some of the more recent ministers in the post, May has done a better job than most, accepting of course that there are many things which have gone wrong on her watch.Socrates said:
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.Alanbrooke said:
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.Socrates said:
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.Alanbrooke said:
reallySocrates said:Calamity May strikes again:
A "complete management failure at the highest levels" in the passport fiasco:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29209396
The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.0 -
The attraction of the status quo is incredibly strong in most referenda: look at AV, the EU in 1975, even devolution in Wales. And in each case, the vote for the status quo was significantly higher than was predicted in the polls.Hugh said:
Yeah yeah, so you keep saying.rcs1000 said:
No is going to win, and win big. I'd be very surprised if Yes makes 40%, and I don't even think Dundee will vote Yes.SeanT said:
Some of us - e.g. me -Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/
have been warning this was close for a YEAR.
That said, as of this moment, I expect a very narrow NO. I think the NHS thing, Gordon Brown, Cameron's speeches, Trafalgar (yes yes, irrelevant luvvies), and the Vow have just tipped it in NO's direction.
But it's still damnably close.
You should have met tim, a prior Labour poster on here. He is given some ludicrous credibility by those that never actually conversed with him. Yet he was adamant NO would win easily even as I insisted he was completely wrong, and far too complacent. Cf NPXMP, who gave me the same reaction.
Care to tell us on what you are basing this?
Not just one of those "make a bold assertion and if by chance it comes in I'll look great" things is it?
This is an enormous step for Scotland, and lot's of people who want 'yes' are also afraid of the near-term disruption. There'll be plenty of Scottish patriots who dream of an independent Scotland who will have said 'yes' all the way along, who will put an x in 'no', and then lie about to their wife and friends later.
Project Fear has been a terrible, awful campaign. But it has also been brilliant. No one ever wants to admit believing a scare story, but in the privacy of the ballot box, those doubts come to the fore.
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Thanks.malcolmg said:
Man Utd winning league , Man City caught them last gameStuart_Dickson said:Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?
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I heard Darling and Salmond were practising penalties this morning...MikeSmithson said:If it ends up absolutely even will they toss a coin?
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When I listed a bunch of failures on her watch, I accidentally included one that now fell outside her role's mandate. I then accepted the mistake when it was pointed out. How on Earth does this mean she is less to blame for Home Office approved examiners reading out the test answers to exam takers or all the other screw-ups?TheScreamingEagles said:
In the past, you've blamed Theresa May for things that aren't her responsibility, something tells me, if she could walk on water, you'd criticise her for not being able to swim.
You ultra-loyalist Tories are fundamentally unable to see fault in your own side.0 -
I want to believe you. But on what evidence are you basing that other than a combination of sheer chutzpah and the pre "2nd debate" long term average of polls?rcs1000 said:
No is going to win, and win big. I'd be very surprised if Yes makes 40%, and I don't even think Dundee will vote Yes.SeanT said:
Some of us - e.g. me -Hugh said:Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/
have been warning this was close for a YEAR.
That said, as of this moment, I expect a very narrow NO. I think the NHS thing, Gordon Brown, Cameron's speeches, Trafalgar (yes yes, irrelevant luvvies), and the Vow have just tipped it in NO's direction.
But it's still damnably close.
You should have met tim, a prior Labour poster on here. He is given some ludicrous credibility by those that never actually conversed with him. Yet he was adamant NO would win easily even as I insisted he was completely wrong, and far too complacent. Cf NPXMP, who gave me the same reaction.0 -
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4571807,00.html
Fragile peace broken by rocket from Gaza
.....and everyone is walking on eggshells and keeping mum, pretending it didn't happen. How long can that last?0 -
I wonder who would be the 'Paul Heyman' guy...Alistair said:
Salmond vs Cameron in a cage match under WWE rules according to the Edinburgh agreement.MikeSmithson said:If it ends up absolutely even will they toss a coin?
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