The woman is incompetent as a government minister. God knows why anyone thinks she'd be a capable leader.
really
Vaz was on TV this am saying the problem was caused by changes brought in under the last govt.
Whether or not that's true, she's had four years to sort it out. If an employee of mine was still blaming his predecessor from four years ago, I'd want to sack them.
As I understand it he said the problem originated from the last govt closing off passports being issued overseas so people in say Nairobi were having to apply for their passport in the UK. As a result the usual pattern of issuing passports was broken and a huge backlog built up. He criticised the management at the passport offices for lack of response but didn't actually have a go at May.
Theresa May is the damn Home Secretary and screw-up after screw-up has happened on her watch. If there was a problem from five years ago than she should have corrected it by now. But she hadn't. She sat twiddling her thumbs until the problem exploded. The same thing happened with lines at Heathrow. The same thing happened with lists of illegal immigrants being lost. The same thing happened with test centres collaborating with test takers to cheat.
Oh, and on her big target to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, she's currently overshooting by 140%. The woman's useless.
Home Secretary is the hardest job in the cabinet imo. Your job is just waiting for shit to happen and there's no thanks or kudos. Given some of the more recent ministers in the post, May has done a better job than most, accepting of course that there are many things which have gone wrong on her watch.
An effective minister doesn't "wait for shit to happen". They look for problems before they occur and remove the stress points before they explode. Four years in and she hasn't stopped these fuck-ups happening, she hasn't reduced immigration and she's unilaterally handed powers over to Brussels, eliminating long-standing British liberties in the process. That's a terrible record.
Gamely blathering on about immigrants even now.
How dare I talk about an area of responsibility of the Home Office in a discussion about the Home Secretary! The numpty arguments on here go from bad to worse...
In the past, you've blamed Theresa May for things that aren't her responsibility, something tells me, if she could walk on water, you'd criticise her for not being able to swim.
When I listed a bunch of failures on her watch, I accidentally included one that now fell outside her role's mandate. I then accepted the mistake when it was pointed out. How on Earth does this mean she is less to blame for Home Office approved examiners reading out the test answers to exam takers or all the other screw-ups?
You ultra-loyalist Tories are fundamentally unable to see fault in your own side.
I cannot see why she retains such a following. She has never impressed in any role.
In the past, you've blamed Theresa May for things that aren't her responsibility, something tells me, if she could walk on water, you'd criticise her for not being able to swim.
When I listed a bunch of failures on her watch, I accidentally included one that now fell outside her role's mandate. I then accepted the mistake when it was pointed out. How on Earth does this mean she is less to blame for Home Office approved examiners reading out the test answers to exam takers or all the other screw-ups?
You ultra-loyalist Tories are fundamentally unable to see fault in your own side.
Are you able to see the fault of the unnecessary level of aggression in your own posts, Socrates, to those who dare to disagree with you?
I say that as someone who more often than not agrees with you. Steady on..
In the past, you've blamed Theresa May for things that aren't her responsibility, something tells me, if she could walk on water, you'd criticise her for not being able to swim.
When I listed a bunch of failures on her watch, I accidentally included one that now fell outside her role's mandate. I then accepted the mistake when it was pointed out. How on Earth does this mean she is less to blame for Home Office approved examiners reading out the test answers to exam takers or all the other screw-ups?
You ultra-loyalist Tories are fundamentally unable to see fault in your own side.
You included, prison escapees once, you also blamed her for not doing her job for community cohesion, as part of her immigration brief, when that was actually the responsibility of Eric Pickles and Lady Warsi.
I've been slagging off Chris Grayling for ages, for example, so you can't play that card with me.
Yes, I certainly made the comparisons with Quebec and no I wouldn't be flabbergasted if it was 93% (surprised...but not f...d). That isn't quite the same as saying that I thought it would be 93% though. The important point from a betting point of view was that I was sure the betting markets were underestimating turnover, and I'm happy that my advice for people to get on appears to be working out well.
If I had to commit to a single figure right now I'd guess 84%, but 9 points higher is possible - 9 lower isn't.
An interesting side effect of the Sindy ref campaign in Wales - support for Welsh Independence has been stuck at around 10 % for years - but two recent opinion polls have support at 17 % and now at 28 %. A Yes result in Scotland could finally wake up the Welsh voters ...
Not from the conversation in the office today in deepest Gwent. What polls by the way?
To answer my own question the 28% one was conducted by "Face for Business" - who? And one reported by Sky ( yougov??) shows the usual 10-15% had risen in the face of wall to wall Scottish coverage to a mighty 17%.
Must say I'm highly amused by how long it's taken the Rightwing Establishment to wake up to how big this whole thing is.
We had all those "zzzz", "braveheart" type posts on PB right up until a few weeks ago.
All the while the Yes campaign were doing things from the grassroots upwards, the events, the arguments, the data (they did tell you, but you didn't believe them or weren't interested)
You "Tories and Unionists" are going to own Gordon Brown one, big time.
That said, as of this moment, I expect a very narrow NO. I think the NHS thing, Gordon Brown, Cameron's speeches, Trafalgar (yes yes, irrelevant luvvies), and the Vow have just tipped it in NO's direction.
But it's still damnably close.
You should have met tim, a prior Labour poster on here. He is given some ludicrous credibility by those that never actually conversed with him. Yet he was adamant NO would win easily even as I insisted he was completely wrong, and far too complacent. Cf NPXMP, who gave me the same reaction.
No is going to win, and win big. I'd be very surprised if Yes makes 40%, and I don't even think Dundee will vote Yes.
Yeah yeah, so you keep saying.
Care to tell us on what you are basing this?
Not just one of those "make a bold assertion and if by chance it comes in I'll look great" things is it?
The attraction of the status quo is incredibly strong in most referenda: look at AV, the EU in 1975, even devolution in Wales. And in each case, the vote for the status quo was significantly higher than was predicted in the polls.
This is an enormous step for Scotland, and lot's of people who want 'yes' are also afraid of the near-term disruption. There'll be plenty of Scottish patriots who dream of an independent Scotland who will have said 'yes' all the way along, who will put an x in 'no', and then lie about to their wife and friends later.
Project Fear has been a terrible, awful campaign. But it has also been brilliant. No one ever wants to admit believing a scare story, but in the privacy of the ballot box, those doubts come to the fore.
What is interesting is that the poor and working class really are swinging strongly behind Yes - people who felt before that voting changed nothing. If there's a marginal No vote, many of these voters will turn their backs on Labour. If that's the case, there'll be another SNP landslide at the next Holyrood elections and another fresh mandate for a referendum.
It would seem that the result that would provide most stability going forward is the Yes vote.
My caveat is that many of those who voted SNP in 2011 were not indy fans although that may have changed..
"It would seem that the result that would provide most stability going forward is the Yes vote."
Ok, you are either a spoof, a hallucination, or an escapee from the Waverley Psych Ward.
Yeh, I remember the put-down 'quips' from ethno-ya students at St. Andrews - they were all guffawing mental health bon mots. You'd reckon they'd eventually grow up but they are peer group terrified of being alienated and the consequent loss of privileges that goes with it..
The idea here is that a narrow no vote will lead to uncertainty for years because of the anticipation of another referendum - further capital flight from London - and the constitutional turmoil across rUK. A Yes victory would leave some questions to be answered but they'd be answered soon and everyone would know where they stand. It's logical captain.
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch · 1h #ScotlandDecides ... Final @OpiniumResearch #indyref YES/NO #indypoll out tomorrow (Wednesday) for the @Telegraph ... Online later tonight.
Can someone translate this into English? Tonight? Tomorrow? Two different polls?
Britain Elects @britainelects 13m Becoming pretty historic that they haven't been leaked yet.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 6m @britainelects The polling industry's learned lot in past 10 days. No embargoed copies and ultra secrecy. Even I don't know!
"Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave." Roy Batty, Bladerunner.
Fascinating article today from Sovereign Man
September 16, 2014 Santiago, Chile
The polls in Scotland will close this week on one of the more important elections in recent history… perhaps one of the only elections that actually matters.
Rather than a typical vote to see who the captain of the Titanic will be, Scots are deciding whether they want to be free and independent from the UK.
Every eligible voter has a say, and a simple majority decides the outcome for everyone else.
By definition, this is the PUREST possible form of the democratic process.
What’s ironic here is that ‘democracy’ is typically held up as the hallmark of free society.
Western nations have spent years (and trillion of dollars) force-feeding representative ‘democracy’ down the throats of developing countries at gunpoint.
Opening his second Presidential term in 2005, George W. Bush famously told the world that “it is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture. . .”
Given the west’s big love for democracy, you’d think this instance in Scotland– the most fundamental example of the democratic process– would be able to take place free, unfettered, and uninfluenced by government.
Government, in fact, is supposed to be the responsible steward to protect and champion democratic rights. At least, that’s the BS they’re constantly selling us.
But that’s not what’s happening.
British politicians are scared to death that Scotland will file for divorce. So they’re doing everything they can to influence the outcome of this supposedly impartial democratic process.
They’ve spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome, effectively subverting a democratic election.
Their claim is that the government knows better than you do. They say they’re doing this for your own good. If Scotland breaks away, your children and grandchildren will suffer immeasurably as a result.
In other words, you NEED US TO TAKE CARE OF YOU. You cannot function without us being in charge of you.
The British government is spreading untold fear, paranoia, and propaganda to drive this point home, all in an effort to influence the outcome of a supposedly free and fair election.
It’s incredibly hypocritical. And the government’s desperation drives home how fragile this system really is.
They know how much weaker and impotent they’ll be if Scotland becomes independent. And they’re terrified of it.
But here’s the thing– this isn’t even the real story. The outcome of the election is irrelevant.
The real issue here is that this election is even happening at all.
OK, I'll engage - perhaps unwisely, given the Arthur's Seat sized chip on yr shoulder.
YES could still win - that is very possible. But if they do Scotland are outside the EU (for at least five years) with no confirmed currency (apart from a CU on harsh English terms for a few transitional months). This is a recipe for economic chaos and decline, a collapse in investment etc.
How can YES be the "vote for stability"?
There really isn't a chip - just trying to shed some light. I couldn't care less what you all think of me / us nats etc.
Scotland will be negotiating new membership from within. That is the reality of what is going to happen and it is so blatantly obvious.. Now I would prefer to be part of the EEA via EFTA as I do not like the EU. Efta has indicated it will welcome us in.
I accept currency is a problem but by the time of independence my own feeling is that we will have set up our own currency. There may be a transitional parallel currency using sterling for international transactions and a Scottish dollar for domestic transactions. The Euro experience of doing this means there is a lot of expertise and recent experience available for this. The Scottish government will soon become aware of macro-economics and it will be clear that the sterling zone is a bad idea and in any case rUK will likely not reciprocate.
As a Scottish dollar will be a resource currency rather than one depending on financial services I fully expect the value of it (free floating) to rise against sterling and so our legacy debt will be cheap for us to repay. It will also allow us to purchase manfucturing plant and so on cheaplly to diversify our economy and bolster our currency.
Temporary disruption and uncertainty all over in a few months.
The alternative - a slight No victory - is years of uncertainty as we await another referendum with political dogma and propaganda scaring markets and so on - years of capital flight etc. Add into that constitutional turmoil throughout England, Wales, NI etc. and the withdrawal from EU /CoE and the mix is really one for economic chaos and decline, collapse in investment etc as you warn..
In the past, you've blamed Theresa May for things that aren't her responsibility, something tells me, if she could walk on water, you'd criticise her for not being able to swim.
When I listed a bunch of failures on her watch, I accidentally included one that now fell outside her role's mandate. I then accepted the mistake when it was pointed out. How on Earth does this mean she is less to blame for Home Office approved examiners reading out the test answers to exam takers or all the other screw-ups?
You ultra-loyalist Tories are fundamentally unable to see fault in your own side.
You included, prison escapees once, you also blamed her for not doing her job for community cohesion, as part of her immigration brief, when that was actually the responsibility of Eric Pickles and Lady Warsi.
I've been slagging off Chris Grayling for ages, for example, so you can't play that card with me.
Yes, I admitted my mistake about Justice issues. As for community cohesion, that is something that is a direct result of poor immigration policy.
I'm perfectly happy to give credit to Tories when they are making good policy - just look at how much I've praised Gove over the years. I also criticise my own side: I did it to Farage earlier today. I don't have an axe to grind against May. I'm just pointing out that she's been useless.
In the past, you've blamed Theresa May for things that aren't her responsibility, something tells me, if she could walk on water, you'd criticise her for not being able to swim.
When I listed a bunch of failures on her watch, I accidentally included one that now fell outside her role's mandate. I then accepted the mistake when it was pointed out. How on Earth does this mean she is less to blame for Home Office approved examiners reading out the test answers to exam takers or all the other screw-ups?
You ultra-loyalist Tories are fundamentally unable to see fault in your own side.
Are you able to see the fault of the unnecessary level of aggression in your own posts, Socrates, to those who dare to disagree with you?
I say that as someone who more often than not agrees with you. Steady on..
I'll will be robust in my arguments, and sometimes, over important issues, I am aggressive where I feel aggression is warranted: e.g. political suppression of events that cause 1400 children to be raped. But I do not see what was aggressive about the post you responded to. Is "How on Earth" considered to be aggressive these days?
"Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave." Roy Batty, Bladerunner.
Fascinating article today from Sovereign Man
September 16, 2014 Santiago, Chile
The polls in Scotland will close this week on one of the more important elections in recent history… perhaps one of the only elections that actually matters.
Rather than a typical vote to see who the captain of the Titanic will be, Scots are deciding whether they want to be free and independent from the UK.
Every eligible voter has a say, and a simple majority decides the outcome for everyone else.
By definition, this is the PUREST possible form of the democratic process.
What’s ironic here is that ‘democracy’ is typically held up as the hallmark of free society.
Western nations have spent years (and trillion of dollars) force-feeding representative ‘democracy’ down the throats of developing countries at gunpoint.
British politicians are scared to death that Scotland will file for divorce. So they’re doing everything they can to influence the outcome of this supposedly impartial democratic process.
They’ve spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome, effectively subverting a democratic election.
Their claim is that the government knows better than you do. They say they’re doing this for your own good. If Scotland breaks away, your children and grandchildren will suffer immeasurably as a result.
In other words, you NEED US TO TAKE CARE OF YOU. You cannot function without us being in charge of you.
The British government is spreading untold fear, paranoia, and propaganda to drive this point home, all in an effort to influence the outcome of a supposedly free and fair election.
It’s incredibly hypocritical. And the government’s desperation drives home how fragile this system really is.
They know how much weaker and impotent they’ll be if Scotland becomes independent. And they’re terrified of it.
But here’s the thing– this isn’t even the real story. The outcome of the election is irrelevant.
The real issue here is that this election is even happening at all.
Santiago Man, are you a bitter ex-pat? Tell us how the British government has spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome. Certainly, if Scotland votes No the cost to the English taxpayer will indeed be incalculable.
Initial thoughts. No have got the fields vote by a mile, Yes have the lamp-posts but by a lesser margin. Surprisingly few Yes/No posters in house windows - the vast majority are staying tight-lipped...
Initial thoughts. No have got the fields vote by a mile, Yes have the lamp-posts but by a lesser margin. Surprisingly few Yes/No posters in house windows - the vast majority are staying tight-lipped...
British politicians are scared to death that Scotland will file for divorce. So they’re doing everything they can to influence the outcome of this supposedly impartial democratic process.
They’ve spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome, effectively subverting a democratic election.
Their claim is that the government knows better than you do. They say they’re doing this for your own good. If Scotland breaks away, your children and grandchildren will suffer immeasurably as a result.
In other words, you NEED US TO TAKE CARE OF YOU. You cannot function without us being in charge of you.
The British government is spreading untold fear, paranoia, and propaganda to drive this point home, all in an effort to influence the outcome of a supposedly free and fair election.
It’s incredibly hypocritical. And the government’s desperation drives home how fragile this system really is.
They know how much weaker and impotent they’ll be if Scotland becomes independent. And they’re terrified of it.
But here’s the thing– this isn’t even the real story. The outcome of the election is irrelevant.
The real issue here is that this election is even happening at all.
Santiago Man, are you a bitter ex-pat? Tell us how the British government has spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome. Certainly, if Scotland votes No the cost to the English taxpayer will indeed be incalculable.
In your dreams little Englander. Even city analysts Investec told us that Scotland's GDP was 10% higher than England's per capita. If there's a No vote the deep southward drift of our capital will continue fattening the pompous sucklings a little longer.
There is a nice piece in Guardian which sums matters up well:
Comments
I say that as someone who more often than not agrees with you. Steady on..
I've been slagging off Chris Grayling for ages, for example, so you can't play that card with me.
Yes, I certainly made the comparisons with Quebec and no I wouldn't be flabbergasted if it was 93% (surprised...but not f...d). That isn't quite the same as saying that I thought it would be 93% though. The important point from a betting point of view was that I was sure the betting markets were underestimating turnover, and I'm happy that my advice for people to get on appears to be working out well.
If I had to commit to a single figure right now I'd guess 84%, but 9 points higher is possible - 9 lower isn't.
All clear?
A fight using cestus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cestus
The ticket sales alone could make up for a shortfall in oil.
The idea here is that a narrow no vote will lead to uncertainty for years because of the anticipation of another referendum - further capital flight from London - and the constitutional turmoil across rUK. A Yes victory would leave some questions to be answered but they'd be answered soon and everyone would know where they stand. It's logical captain.
Becoming pretty historic that they haven't been leaked yet.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 6m
@britainelects The polling industry's learned lot in past 10 days. No embargoed copies and ultra secrecy. Even I don't know!
Roy Batty, Bladerunner.
Fascinating article today from Sovereign Man
September 16, 2014
Santiago, Chile
The polls in Scotland will close this week on one of the more important elections in recent history… perhaps one of the only elections that actually matters.
Rather than a typical vote to see who the captain of the Titanic will be, Scots are deciding whether they want to be free and independent from the UK.
Every eligible voter has a say, and a simple majority decides the outcome for everyone else.
By definition, this is the PUREST possible form of the democratic process.
What’s ironic here is that ‘democracy’ is typically held up as the hallmark of free society.
Western nations have spent years (and trillion of dollars) force-feeding representative ‘democracy’ down the throats of developing countries at gunpoint.
Opening his second Presidential term in 2005, George W. Bush famously told the world that “it is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture. . .”
Given the west’s big love for democracy, you’d think this instance in Scotland– the most fundamental example of the democratic process– would be able to take place free, unfettered, and uninfluenced by government.
Government, in fact, is supposed to be the responsible steward to protect and champion democratic rights. At least, that’s the BS they’re constantly selling us.
But that’s not what’s happening.
British politicians are scared to death that Scotland will file for divorce. So they’re doing everything they can to influence the outcome of this supposedly impartial democratic process.
They’ve spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome, effectively subverting a democratic election.
Their claim is that the government knows better than you do. They say they’re doing this for your own good. If Scotland breaks away, your children and grandchildren will suffer immeasurably as a result.
In other words, you NEED US TO TAKE CARE OF YOU. You cannot function without us being in charge of you.
The British government is spreading untold fear, paranoia, and propaganda to drive this point home, all in an effort to influence the outcome of a supposedly free and fair election.
It’s incredibly hypocritical. And the government’s desperation drives home how fragile this system really is.
They know how much weaker and impotent they’ll be if Scotland becomes independent. And they’re terrified of it.
But here’s the thing– this isn’t even the real story. The outcome of the election is irrelevant.
The real issue here is that this election is even happening at all.
Read more: http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/scottish-independence-they-love-democracy-so-much-theyre-trying-to-subvert-it-15018/
Lab lead 3.68% - up from 3.53% in the previous period - so not a huge change in the lead. But Con and Lab both down significantly.
Next!
Scotland will be negotiating new membership from within. That is the reality of what is going to happen and it is so blatantly obvious.. Now I would prefer to be part of the EEA via EFTA as I do not like the EU. Efta has indicated it will welcome us in.
I accept currency is a problem but by the time of independence my own feeling is that we will have set up our own currency. There may be a transitional parallel currency using sterling for international transactions and a Scottish dollar for domestic transactions. The Euro experience of doing this means there is a lot of expertise and recent experience available for this. The Scottish government will soon become aware of macro-economics and it will be clear that the sterling zone is a bad idea and in any case rUK will likely not reciprocate.
As a Scottish dollar will be a resource currency rather than one depending on financial services I fully expect the value of it (free floating) to rise against sterling and so our legacy debt will be cheap for us to repay. It will also allow us to purchase manfucturing plant and so on cheaplly to diversify our economy and bolster our currency.
Temporary disruption and uncertainty all over in a few months.
The alternative - a slight No victory - is years of uncertainty as we await another referendum with political dogma and propaganda scaring markets and so on - years of capital flight etc. Add into that constitutional turmoil throughout England, Wales, NI etc. and the withdrawal from EU /CoE and the mix is really one for economic chaos and decline, collapse in investment etc as you warn..
I'm perfectly happy to give credit to Tories when they are making good policy - just look at how much I've praised Gove over the years. I also criticise my own side: I did it to Farage earlier today. I don't have an axe to grind against May. I'm just pointing out that she's been useless.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/1791/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-icm-opinium-survation-rolling-blog-on-tonight-s-final#latest
Btw where is Mike and Son of Mike when you need them most?
Initial thoughts. No have got the fields vote by a mile, Yes have the lamp-posts but by a lesser margin. Surprisingly few Yes/No posters in house windows - the vast majority are staying tight-lipped...
In your dreams little Englander. Even city analysts Investec told us that Scotland's GDP was 10% higher than England's per capita. If there's a No vote the deep southward drift of our capital will continue fattening the pompous sucklings a little longer.
There is a nice piece in Guardian which sums matters up well:
How the media shafted the people of Scotland
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists