Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

2 weeks to go till the by-elections and more want BoJo OUT – politicalbetting.com

24567

Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    As noted above, Boris’s speech is notable not so much for its policy reveals (which don’t amount to much) but rather for what it abandons.

    Levelling up is well and truly dead, and so is the commitment to build more housing.

    We’re back to let’s cut taxes, albeit with extreme chutzpah given that Boris has already put them up so high in the first place.

    Where does that leave our Johnny Owls, now Boris has u turned on socialism and is hard core Thatcherite 🤭

    You’re going to have to hold your nose and vote Starmer, Owls!
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,923

    Cut VAT on fuel to 0%. Labour should back it

    Wouldn't help businesses at all.
    Applicant said:

    I agree that he won't - I'm just saying that theoretically he could.
    I suppose yes, he technically could call one before the summer holidays (but not before MPs bugger off? I mean, don't they break up about two weeks earlier anyway).
    There is no possible date left in 2022 now that wouldn't involve massive risk.
    Summer hols or so close to it as to disrupt all the sports days (for the first time in three years)? - Not happening. The Con vote would collapse.
    After the summer? Nawh. Too cold, too wet, painted as desperate (Brenda from Bristol is on the line) and nothing is going to get better between now and Christmas.

    He won't risk it. The time for a 'normal' GE was back in May.
    Absent a political crisis, the next time for one is now next year.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,932
    Sir Keir has cordial meeting with Putin.

    image
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    edited June 2022
    kyf_100 said:

    The pain at the pump is all any of my friends outside of London talk about. Hard not to, when it's going up almost daily.

    People have moved on from partygate. What they see is a government that apparently doesn't have any answers to the cost of living crisis.

    The only light for the government is that such observations among my friends are usually followed up by "the other lot don't have a clue what to do, either".
    I hear people complaining about fuel prices and access to health services. I was earwhigging to a bloke in the supermarket the other day moaning about how hard it is to get through to a doctors surgery to speak to someone, never mind get an appointment. 'They keep telling me to go online. I don't want to go online, why can't I just ring up and speak to someone and get an appointment that day like I used to?'

    Oh, and the price of everything going up generally.

    All this will sink the Tories, assuming this is being felt right across the country. Which it sounds like it is. That's what the vast majority of people who don't give two hoots about politics are worrying about.

    Partygate and the aftermath cut through and sure people think Johnson's a lying buffoon, but people will vote on the above.

    And it isn't going to get any easier. If we have a 70s redux this winter - stagflation, energy rationing, hell maybe even strikes - which some are forecasting, then they're done. Finito. Kaput.

    I don't think Johnson's legacy is going to be looked on with any fondness in 10 years' time. In 20 years time I think we'll look back at it as a catastrophe.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    As noted above, Boris’s speech is notable not so much for its policy reveals (which don’t amount to much) but rather for what it abandons.

    Levelling up is well and truly dead, and so is the commitment to build more housing.

    We’re back to let’s cut taxes, albeit with extreme chutzpah given that Boris has already put them up so high in the first place.

    And custom rigging the housing market to generate continuously rocketing prices.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Sandpit said:

    All medium-term considerations. There needs to be the short-term consideration that millions of people can’t afford to both drive to work and feed their kids. And the high fuel price is making the food more expensive.

    Price electicity of demand for petrol is something like 0.2. Only @Dura_Ace on this forum uses it discretionarily.
    At the very least it could be stabilised such that gains in VAT from fuel were handed back on fuel duty.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    kinabalu said:

    And the sad thing is it's for no positive reason. No vision, no competence, no nothing.
    He loves being Big Dog though.

    And the voters love having Winston Churchill back. Don’t count your chickens yet, he hasn’t lost his majority yet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2022

    It's always at the margins that demand and supply come into balance. When you say that most people are price inelastic this only means that the price swings required to bring demand and supply into balance are greater. It doesn't mean that isn't what is happening.
    That doesn’t apply to a product with a global price level, and a very small price electicity of demand.

    There will be at least 10m, probably closer to 20m people today, using their cars to work. The cost of petrol is completely irrelevant to their decision to buy it, and if the price goes up too much they cut down on everything else on which they spend money. Or they quit their job, and claim benefits.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Wouldn't help businesses at all. I suppose yes, he technically could call one before the summer holidays (but not before MPs bugger off? I mean, don't they break up about two weeks earlier anyway).
    There is no possible date left in 2022 now that wouldn't involve massive risk.
    Summer hols or so close to it as to disrupt all the sports days (for the first time in three years)? - Not happening. The Con vote would collapse.
    After the summer? Nawh. Too cold, too wet, painted as desperate (Brenda from Bristol is on the line) and nothing is going to get better between now and Christmas.

    He won't risk it. The time for a 'normal' GE was back in May.
    Absent a political crisis, the next time for one is now next year.
    I don't think parliament needs to be sitting to be dissolved, does it?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Fuel duty? If the government's post-Covid approach is a new £15-25 billion giveaway every month, Britain is Argentina.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    As noted above, Boris’s speech is notable not so much for its policy reveals (which don’t amount to much) but rather for what it abandons.

    Levelling up is well and truly dead, and so is the commitment to build more housing.

    We’re back to let’s cut taxes, albeit with extreme chutzpah given that Boris has already put them up so high in the first place.

    The only point of Boris Johnson being PM is so Boris Johnson can be PM. That's what it's reduced to. Sad.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 954
    By Elections: if held now would predict Wakefield Labour to win by 8-10,000, Tiverton Lib Dems to win by 10-15,000!!¬!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    Will Tory MPs be fooled by this latest re-announcement that’ll come to nothing? B Johnson is the eternal campaigner proclaiming meaningless slogans around the country several days a week. The hard unglamorous grind of policy implementation and consequences of bad policy bore him https://twitter.com/peston/status/1534917117035827201
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644

    Cut VAT on fuel to 0%, cut fuel duty for a year. Labour should back it.

    Doesn't really fit with the zero carbon agenda though.
    There is a significant interest which is quite pleased with high fuel prices because it pushes people away from the internal combustion engine.
    Not saying I back this approach (though I have some nuanced sympathy for it) - but it doesn't fit in with Labour's general approach to transport and the environment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Leon said:

    I’ve always thought the Geneva Convention is a load of old pants, tho. Rules of war. Really? War is about merciless killing and conquest. How can you have rules? The so-called rules are also hypocritical and ridiculous: it’s OK to bomb cities and kill thousands of civilians but’s NOT OK to shoot a few POWs? Who makes up this shit? Where do nukes fit in? Hiroshima? Was that OK?

    The only rule is: don’t get caught, because you might die


    And this is not to exonerate Putin. An unprovoked invasion of a neighbouring country is horrible, vile, barbaric. It is immoral and dangerous and has to be opposed. But my abhorrence has nothing to do with “rules of war”
    The rules are for protecting non-combatants whether civilians or soldiers who become injured or POWs.

    A distinct advantage for each side is that they can expect their lost POWs to receive the same treatment as the ones they have captured.

  • Alternatively, go for an election, lose it, leave Labour to screw up the economy and come back in five years
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited June 2022
    Nigelb said:

    We've all pissed a lot of water under the bridge since then...
    Under Wandsworth bridge? I might have seen you guys doing that, I have gone or come back that way a lot recently. 🤭
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,923
    Leon said:

    I’ve always thought the Geneva Convention is a load of old pants, tho. Rules of war. Really? War is about merciless killing and conquest. How can you have rules? The so-called rules are also hypocritical and ridiculous: it’s OK to bomb cities and kill thousands of civilians but’s NOT OK to shoot a few POWs? Who makes up this shit? Where do nukes fit in? Hiroshima? Was that OK?

    The only rule is: don’t get caught, because you might die


    And this is not to exonerate Putin. An unprovoked invasion of a neighbouring country is horrible, vile, barbaric. It is immoral and dangerous and has to be opposed. But my abhorrence has nothing to do with “rules of war”
    Then even if I agree with you (I don't) you need said rules to encourage the opposition to surrender.
    If you know you're GOING to die either way, then why surrender.

    A rumour spread during the Bulge that the Germans weren't taking prisoners (they sort of weren't - they had to move fast) and there was a small massacre by SS against American POWS, but one survived and got away.
    After that, US troops stopped surrendering and fought far more tenaciously because if you're going to die, might as well die fighting.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,079
    Applicant said:

    Boris wasn't unpopular in 2019.
    For a PM, he wasn't that popular in 2019. See this rather poigniant graph from Mori;



    and he's drifted down since then. He's not dead yet, but he needs something to turn things around.

    Johnson is a lucky general sometimes, especially in his choice of opponents.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138

    he hasn’t lost his majority yet.

    He probably has. It hasn't been tested.

    If it is true that he asked Truss to cut her staff and she replied with an increase, then he really is in office, not in power.

    Which probably suits him fine
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Scott_xP said:

    Will Tory MPs be fooled by this latest re-announcement that’ll come to nothing? B Johnson is the eternal campaigner proclaiming meaningless slogans around the country several days a week. The hard unglamorous grind of policy implementation and consequences of bad policy bore him https://twitter.com/peston/status/1534917117035827201

    And Nadine can't privatise ITV in retaliation for that comment!!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    Putin is an evil man, but he can quite rightly point to our hypocrisy and say What about Afghanistan? What about Iraq? Shock and Awe? Was that within ‘the rules’?

    Vietnam? The bombing of Laos? Agent Orange? And so on, and so forth

    Would Blair and Bush survive a trial in, say, Beijing, under the auspices of the Geneva Convention? I’m not at all sure they would. It is arguable they are guilty. And as for Kissinger carpet bombing neutral Cambodia and Laos. Killing tens of thousands, destabilising entire countries, kicking off the ‘Khmer Rouge. UGH

    Let’s face it, we like the “Geneva Convention” when it suits us, and we simply ignore it when it doesn’t
    “The Geneva Convention” isn’t really one thing. There’s several Geneva Conventions and the stuff you’re thinking of was agreed after the War because of the War. They are all about the treatment of uniformed enemy soldiers and non-combatants. It’s the “don’t just shoot your prisoners” stuff.

    The Laws of Armed Conflict covering the use of weapons are largely derived from The Hague conventions and focus on proportionality. So mass bombing was ok when precision bombing wasn’t possible, but wouldn’t be now. They do have some oddities though - you can’t blind your enemy but you can kill them*. Would you rather me blinded or head? Either stops you firing a machine gun.

    *We had to stop using a laser dazzler.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Scott_xP said:

    Will Tory MPs be fooled by this latest re-announcement that’ll come to nothing? B Johnson is the eternal campaigner proclaiming meaningless slogans around the country several days a week. The hard unglamorous grind of policy implementation and consequences of bad policy bore him https://twitter.com/peston/status/1534917117035827201

    Echoes of the “you don’t just pull a lever and it happens”.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,079

    We were told that one of the benefits of leaving the EU would be we could scrap VAT on domestic fuel. It strikes me now would be the perfect time to put that into practice.

    VAT was always originally supposed to be about discretionary spend anyway. Hence the reason things like food were exempt. Major should never have introduced it on domestic fuel and we should now take the opportunity to get rid of it permanently.
    Johnson's problem is the same as Major's.

    They need the money.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    What's the electric car market like at the moment? Anecdotally I know of someone who ordered a VW electric in Autumn last year who has not had it delivered yet. If there's a supply-side restriction, fuel price won't matter as much.

    Besides, electric cars cost so much nowadays that I doubt fuel costs are really much of an incentive. Bragging rights probably count for much more. ;)

    (Speaking of which, we might need to change our 10-year old VW Passat soon. I haven't really looked into it, but would consider electric, but prefer to buy second-hand which might be a problem...)
    Not sure buying EVs secondhand is wise at the best of times. Much/most of their value is in their batteries. How do you know that a secondhand battery isn't going to conk out on you in short order? A new vehicle under long warranty on PCP is probably the sweet spot.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Cookie said:

    Doesn't really fit with the zero carbon agenda though.
    There is a significant interest which is quite pleased with high fuel prices because it pushes people away from the internal combustion engine.
    Not saying I back this approach (though I have some nuanced sympathy for it) - but it doesn't fit in with Labour's general approach to transport and the environment.
    It’s basically doubled what we normally spend on petrol?

    For how long for is the question though?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Alternatively, go for an election, lose it, leave Labour to screw up the economy and come back in five years

    The medium-term optimal result for the Tories at the next election is to get most votes and seats but not a majority, Labour at least 20 seats behind, and Labour cobble together a coalition of all the losers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Cookie said:

    Doesn't really fit with the zero carbon agenda though.
    There is a significant interest which is quite pleased with high fuel prices because it pushes people away from the internal combustion engine.
    Not saying I back this approach (though I have some nuanced sympathy for it) - but it doesn't fit in with Labour's general approach to transport and the environment.
    Yes. Which feeds back to the comments of a certain Mr Cummings, from a few months ago, that “Government By Carrie” was the problem.

    The Net Zero crap needs to be dropped while there’s a war in Ukraine. But no-one has the guts to say it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Sir Keir has cordial meeting with Putin.

    image

    I support Starmer going to Moscow today, it’s important to lay the foundations for the eventual truce in secret meetings like this.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Alternatively, go for an election, lose it, leave Labour to screw up the economy and come back in five years

    E.G. The "soft landing" meme that did the rounds in Autumn 2010.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2022
    Hit the jackpot!

    Asda are selling unleaded for 176.7p/l here in the WM. Everyone else, close by is 184p+

    Odd business decision.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    I hear people complaining about fuel prices and access to health services. I was earwhigging to a bloke in the supermarket the other day moaning about how hard it is to get through to a doctors surgery to speak to someone, never mind get an appointment. 'They keep telling me to go online. I don't want to go online, why can't I just ring up and speak to someone and get an appointment that day like I used to?'

    Oh, and the price of everything going up generally.

    All this will sink the Tories, assuming this is being felt right across the country. Which it sounds like it is. That's what the vast majority of people who don't give two hoots about politics are worrying about.

    Partygate and the aftermath cut through and sure people think Johnson's a lying buffoon, but people will vote on the above.

    And it isn't going to get any easier. If we have a 70s redux this winter - stagflation, energy rationing, hell maybe even strikes - which some are forecasting, then they're done. Finito. Kaput.

    I don't think Johnson's legacy is going to be looked on with any fondness in 10 years' time. In 20 years time I think we'll look back at it as a catastrophe.
    I truly think we'd be much better off if we had no PM at all. Just a void would be preferable. Similar level of grip and direction and we wouldn't have to listen to him. Take to your bed Boris!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Then even if I agree with you (I don't) you need said rules to encourage the opposition to surrender.
    If you know you're GOING to die either way, then why surrender.

    A rumour spread during the Bulge that the Germans weren't taking prisoners (they sort of weren't - they had to move fast) and there was a small massacre by SS against American POWS, but one survived and got away.
    After that, US troops stopped surrendering and fought far more tenaciously because if you're going to die, might as well die fighting.
    You don’t need some absurd “Convention” to enforce this. It is a natural function of war, known for thousands of years. If you treat encircled, defeated, and surrendering enemy with a certain mercy, they are much more likely to surrender in future. If you get a reputation for killing everyone you can, then everyone that fights you will fight to the end, so total cruelty is often self-defeating

    I find the idea there is some holy book containing the polite “rules of war” borderline offensive. Like war is OK if it is done “properly”. It is never OK, it is at best a necessary and horrific evil
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888
    edited June 2022

    Not sure buying EVs secondhand is wise at the best of times. Much/most of their value is in their batteries. How do you know that a secondhand battery isn't going to conk out on you in short order? A new vehicle under long warranty on PCP is probably the sweet spot.
    Yeah, that's the big issue I have with buying a second-hand electric. But I'm too tight to buy a new one at the sort of price they are now (they are really expensive, and driving is just a tool for me; I don't particularly enjoy it).

    I might consider leasing one, though, even though we could buy new.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Cookie said:

    Doesn't really fit with the zero carbon agenda though.
    There is a significant interest which is quite pleased with high fuel prices because it pushes people away from the internal combustion engine.
    Not saying I back this approach (though I have some nuanced sympathy for it) - but it doesn't fit in with Labour's general approach to transport and the environment.
    Yes. I've definitely been driving less since the fuel prices rose. Biking more and catching the bus in marginal situations rather than jumping in the car. Enjoying it. Cars are more hassle than they are worth round here much of the time, trying to park etc. Just force of habit pushes me into it normally.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    I hear people complaining about fuel prices and access to health services. I was earwhigging to a bloke in the supermarket the other day moaning about how hard it is to get through to a doctors surgery to speak to someone, never mind get an appointment. 'They keep telling me to go online. I don't want to go online, why can't I just ring up and speak to someone and get an appointment that day like I used to?'

    Oh, and the price of everything going up generally.

    All this will sink the Tories, assuming this is being felt right across the country. Which it sounds like it is. That's what the vast majority of people who don't give two hoots about politics are worrying about.

    Partygate and the aftermath cut through and sure people think Johnson's a lying buffoon, but people will vote on the above.

    And it isn't going to get any easier. If we have a 70s redux this winter - stagflation, energy rationing, hell maybe even strikes - which some are forecasting, then they're done. Finito. Kaput.

    I don't think Johnson's legacy is going to be looked on with any fondness in 10 years' time. In 20 years time I think we'll look back at it as a catastrophe.
    I've been predicting a return to widespread industrial action for some time. I hope that I'm right. I have developed a growing conviction that it is justifiable in most cases and is to be welcomed.

    The balance of economic and, therefore, political power in Britain has swung massively away from ordinary workers and towards a lucky and pampered generation of elderly homeowners and the downright rich. It's therefore high time that we had significant redistribution from the wealthy to the struggling.

    We are never going to get that from the Tories because they only exist to transfer resources upwards. As far as I'm concerned, if strikes are going to both force bosses to heel and hasten the destruction of the current Government then they are to be celebrated twice over. Bring them on.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    Yes. I've definitely been driving less since the fuel prices rose. Biking more and catching the bus in marginal situations rather than jumping in the car. Enjoying it. Cars are more hassle than they are worth round here much of the time, trying to park etc. Just force of habit pushes me into it normally.
    That can't be true. I've been assured that demand for fuel is price inelastic.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656
    edited June 2022

    Brexit was going to abolish VAT on fuel iirc (and tampons). Two birds, one stone for Boris.
    From 2016:-
    EU'LL NEVER BELIEVE IT Boris promises cheaper household gas bills if Brits back Brexit
    BORIS Johnson and Michael Gove today promise to scrap VAT on household energy bills if Britain backs a Brexit.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1218703/boris-promises-cheaper-household-gas-bills-if-brits-back-brexit/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    You know, I criticise the US health system a lot (for its insane bureaucracy), but they can move really quick.

    Today I tested positive for Covid, got a video call with a doctor organised for an hour later, and now just need to go pick up my Paxlovid prescription.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Yeah, that's the big issue I have with buying a second-hand electric. But I'm too tight to buy a new one at the sort of price they are now (they are really expensive, and driving is just a tool for me; I don't particularly enjoy it).

    I might consider leasing one, though, even though we could buy new.
    Tesla are offering 8-year battery warranties, but there are horror stories of (last-generation) batteries failing just outside that time. Awesome if it fails just inside though. It does make one think twice about a second-hand one though, which may be really close to the original retail price at three years old, but could be worth very little at six or seven.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited June 2022
    Today's policy announcements, such as they are, are just the continuation of a haphazard, scattergun approach to policy development. If I were a Tory, I would despair at the absence of an overarching policy direction, a metanarrative if you like, around which a coherent range of policies is developed. Instead, it's just a list of random policies cast out in the hope that they will have populist appeal. If they don't have such appeal, they're quietly dropped. If they do have appeal, they are implemented in a half-baked manner.

    Of course "levelling-up" should be, and maybe claims to be, the metanarrative, but so far that still hasn't really made much progress apart from providing a source of soundbites.

    (Before anyone says it, I'm well aware that Labour has yet to present anything that constitutes a coherent policy platform).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    That can't be true. I've been assured that demand for fuel is price inelastic.
    A significant number of journeys are completely price inelastic but some journeys (leisure) will be cut back on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    rcs1000 said:

    You know, I criticise the US health system a lot (for its insane bureaucracy), but they can move really quick.

    Today I tested positive for Covid, got a video call with a doctor organised for an hour later, and now just need to go pick up my Paxlovid prescription.

    The criticisms of the US healthcare system are not related to the treatment of CEOs. If you have top level insurance in the US, you have the best healthcare in the world.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    That can't be true. I've been assured that demand for fuel is price inelastic.
    One counterexample does not render a statement including the phrase "most people" invalid.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    Putin is an evil man, but he can quite rightly point to our hypocrisy and say What about Afghanistan? What about Iraq? Shock and Awe? Was that within ‘the rules’?

    Vietnam? The bombing of Laos? Agent Orange? And so on, and so forth

    Would Blair and Bush survive a trial in, say, Beijing, under the auspices of the Geneva Convention? I’m not at all sure they would. It is arguable they are guilty. And as for Kissinger carpet bombing neutral Cambodia and Laos. Killing tens of thousands, destabilising entire countries, kicking off the Khmer Rouge. UGH

    Let’s face it, we like the “Geneva Convention” when it suits us, and we simply ignore it when it doesn’t
    No person or country is perfect. Even I, although I come close, am not.

    I am sure that Putin genuinely believed that the Ukrainians wanted to be a part of Russia. He will have convinced himself that they are one people, and that they would welcome his troops with open arms, and be relieved to rid themselves of their "Nazi" leaders.

    That this view coincides with his manifest destiny* as the leader who would return Russia to the greatness that it rightly deserves is just a happy coincidence.

    * In his mind
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    pigeon said:

    I've been predicting a return to widespread industrial action for some time. I hope that I'm right. I have developed a growing conviction that it is justifiable in most cases and is to be welcomed.

    The balance of economic and, therefore, political power in Britain has swung massively away from ordinary workers and towards a lucky and pampered generation of elderly homeowners and the downright rich. It's therefore high time that we had significant redistribution from the wealthy to the struggling.

    We are never going to get that from the Tories because they only exist to transfer resources upwards. As far as I'm concerned, if strikes are going to both force bosses to heel and hasten the destruction of the current Government then they are to be celebrated twice over. Bring them on.
    I really do hope that SKS and labour decide that now is the time to introduce a wealth tax. Ideally they will also bin council tax at the same time but something does need to be done.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800
    pigeon said:

    I've been predicting a return to widespread industrial action for some time. I hope that I'm right. I have developed a growing conviction that it is justifiable in most cases and is to be welcomed.

    The balance of economic and, therefore, political power in Britain has swung massively away from ordinary workers and towards a lucky and pampered generation of elderly homeowners and the downright rich. It's therefore high time that we had significant redistribution from the wealthy to the struggling.

    We are never going to get that from the Tories because they only exist to transfer resources upwards. As far as I'm concerned, if strikes are going to both force bosses to heel and hasten the destruction of the current Government then they are to be celebrated twice over. Bring them on.
    They will hasten the destruction of everyone's lives, incomes and see rocketing unemployment

    The strongest may try to hold the country to ransom, but this is the one time I am pleased we have a government who will resist unaffordable pay increases

    You can wish it away but the fact is everyone across the western world is going to be poorer, and it is HMG responsibility to protect the poorest - it cannot protect everyone including well paid train drivers
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Yes. I've definitely been driving less since the fuel prices rose. Biking more and catching the bus in marginal situations rather than jumping in the car. Enjoying it. Cars are more hassle than they are worth round here much of the time, trying to park etc. Just force of habit pushes me into it normally.
    Don’t you live in Hampstead? Driving in NW3 is a nightmare. Parking is worse.

    Owning a car in central or central-ish London is quite hard to justify, unless you have small children. And I speak as someone who has a car, which costs me loads. And often it just sits there. And the kids are no longer small

    Hmpft

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Yeah, that's the big issue I have with buying a second-hand electric. But I'm too tight to buy a new one at the sort of price they are now (they are really expensive, and driving is just a tool for me; I don't particularly enjoy it).

    I might consider leasing one, though, even though we could buy new.
    PCP is effectively leasing it although you have the option to pay the balance at the end of the term. In reality, you might be better to swap it for a new one, although at least you get the option.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Sandpit said:

    The criticisms of the US healthcare system are not related to the treatment of CEOs. If you have top level insurance in the US, you have the best healthcare in the world.
    The really worrying thing about US healthcare is that Medicare costs as much (per capita) as the NHS does and yet provides a limited service for a limited number of people.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    Sandpit said:

    Tesla are offering 8-year battery warranties, but there are horror stories of (last-generation) batteries failing just outside that time. Awesome if it fails just inside though. It does make one think twice about a second-hand one though, which may be really close to the original retail price at three years old, but could be worth very little at six or seven.
    If I was going to buy a new electric vehicle right now, I think I'd get the Hyundia Ioniq 5.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Applicant said:

    One counterexample does not render a statement including the phrase "most people" invalid.
    It's what happens to aggregate demand that matters, so if there are some people whose use is discretionary then demand in aggregate is not price inelastic. The margins are where the price is set.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    Cookie said:

    Doesn't really fit with the zero carbon agenda though.
    There is a significant interest which is quite pleased with high fuel prices because it pushes people away from the internal combustion engine.
    Not saying I back this approach (though I have some nuanced sympathy for it) - but it doesn't fit in with Labour's general approach to transport and the environment.
    Yes, and it's worth remembering that Labour will be seeking to persuade Green voters to vote tactically at the next GE. Spending money to lower petrol prices wouldn't help with this.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    rcs1000 said:

    If I was going to buy a new electric vehicle right now, I think I'd get the Hyundia Ioniq 5.
    Order now delivery March next year.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,680

    Johnson's problem is the same as Major's.

    They need the money.
    Public expenditure of all sorts is about £1.1 tn. That's £17,000 pa per man, woman and child in the UK. Only about 10% of it is borrowed so that our grandchildren can pay it off for us - thank you. The rest comes from somewhere. You can't cut taxes without raising other taxes (which) cutting expenditure (what) or borrowing off your grandchildren even more (the interest payments are already most of what we borrow...)

    The discussion needs to look at the whole picture. But no BBC news programme is complete without one or more calls for increased public expenditure. And a call for tax cuts from someone.



  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Sandpit said:

    The criticisms of the US healthcare system are not related to the treatment of CEOs. If you have top level insurance in the US, you have the best healthcare in the world.
    Yes, the eye witness account of the frontline of US healthcare from…. a multi-millionaire businessman living in one of the most agreeable districts of Southern California lacks a certain impactfulness
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    That can't be true. I've been assured that demand for fuel is price inelastic.
    I guess some people will drive almost regardless of the cost, but it definitely makes you think more about it. One of the interesting changes is that some long distance journeys are now competitive by train, if you are travelling alone. Previously, cars were almost always significantly cheaper.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    It's what happens to aggregate demand that matters, so if there are some people whose use is discretionary then demand in aggregate is not price inelastic. The margins are where the price is set.
    In which case we should see fuel prices in London and other major cities end up lower than those in the majority of the country that relies on car use.

    Levelling up in action, again.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    They will hasten the destruction of everyone's lives, incomes and see rocketing unemployment

    The strongest may try to hold the country to ransom, but this is the one time I am pleased we have a government who will resist unaffordable pay increases

    You can wish it away but the fact is everyone across the western world is going to be poorer, and it is HMG responsibility to protect the poorest - it cannot protect everyone including well paid train drivers
    I thought it was the track workers not the drivers?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    My car has not moved from the street since Saturday.

    The other day I biked to run a local errand I would normally drive, and it was notably quicker. By the time I have factored in faffing around finding somewhere to park, any marginal gain from the car is lost – with change. Interesting discovery.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    theakes said:

    By Elections: if held now would predict Wakefield Labour to win by 8-10,000, Tiverton Lib Dems to win by 10-15,000!!¬!

    I predict a Tory majority of around 2,000 in Tiverton, down from a majority of 24,000, which the Tories will proclaim to be a massive victory. There is a lot of expectation management going on here.

    At 6/1 I'm upping my stake on the Tories taking it, albeit narrowly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    Roger said:

    Apparently they have no death penalty in Russia. This is therefore not Russia approved
    They do, however, have very dangerous balconies. And cups of tea, strangely.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    They will hasten the destruction of everyone's lives, incomes and see rocketing unemployment

    The strongest may try to hold the country to ransom, but this is the one time I am pleased we have a government who will resist unaffordable pay increases

    You can wish it away but the fact is everyone across the western world is going to be poorer, and it is HMG responsibility to protect the poorest - it cannot protect everyone including well paid train drivers
    HMG can pay its workers a decent wage by extracting more in taxes from those who can afford it - rather than the fat albatross spouting lame excuses about wage-price spirals. It's not complicated.

    HMG won't do it because it is presently in the hands of a party that exists to represent only the needs of the already comfortable, not because it's impossible.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Mrs Biggles has spoken. As someone who previously had some time for Boris, “Partygate” has seen her leave him and today’s announcements have driven her further away. In my experience of the last few elections, as she goes so goes the nation.

    I still think he COULD turn it around with a suddenly improved economic situation based on a Ukrainian victory and a Biden stoked boom, but increasingly I think his time is up and it’ll be the next guy who benefits if anyone does.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Applicant said:

    The medium-term optimal result for the Tories at the next election is to get most votes and seats but not a majority, Labour at least 20 seats behind, and Labour cobble together a coalition of all the losers.
    If Labour are only 20 seats behind they might well be popular vote winners. The new boundaries, designed by Professor Jeremy Mander, should see to that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    Leon said:

    Yes, the eye witness account of the frontline of US healthcare from…. a multi-millionaire businessman living in one of the most agreeable districts of Southern California lacks a certain impactfulness
    The US government bought millions of doses of Paxlovid, with the consequence that pretty much *anyone* can get a prescription if they catch Covid.

    The speed of my doctor's appointment may be a consequence of my insurance, but the rapid prescribing of a drug that will likely cut my recovery down to days is a consequence of decent Federal purchasing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Westminster Voting Intention (8-9 June):

    Labour 40% (+2)
    Conservative 32% (-2)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5 June

    https://t.co/rtfGoXeO6b https://t.co/Vayt1WEeyB

    Small movement post dog rescue
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    I guess some people will drive almost regardless of the cost, but it definitely makes you think more about it. One of the interesting changes is that some long distance journeys are now competitive by train, if you are travelling alone. Previously, cars were almost always significantly cheaper.
    This is one reason why governments in some other countries (Ireland, Germany) have responded by cutting public transport fares.

    It should encourage those who can use public transport instead to do so, thereby reducing overall demand for fuel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    eek said:

    Order now delivery March next year.
    Really? Ouch.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    edited June 2022

    Westminster Voting Intention (8-9 June):

    Labour 40% (+2)
    Conservative 32% (-2)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5 June

    https://t.co/rtfGoXeO6b https://t.co/Vayt1WEeyB

    Small movement post dog rescue

    Is Reform being prompted for? Fascinating if not, and people remember they exist. In any case, I doubt they’ll stand in anything like all constituencies next time.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    rcs1000 said:

    The US government bought millions of doses of Paxlovid, with the consequence that pretty much *anyone* can get a prescription if they catch Covid.

    The speed of my doctor's appointment may be a consequence of my insurance, but the rapid prescribing of a drug that will likely cut my recovery down to days is a consequence of decent Federal purchasing.
    In much of Europe it is rationed to the unvaxxed and/or immuno compromised.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    eek said:

    I really do hope that SKS and labour decide that now is the time to introduce a wealth tax. Ideally they will also bin council tax at the same time but something does need to be done.
    It should certainly implement a shift away from taxation of earned incomes and toward the taxation of assets. Higher taxes on capital gains (including on the sale of primary residences,) sumptuary taxation of second homes and a large expansion in the levying of death duties are also desirable.

    Just to throw an extra idea out there, I would crack down on companies that pay out fat dividends to shareholders whilst imposing real terms pay cuts on their employees. Wage settlements below the rate of inflation should mean no goodies for the owners.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    rcs1000 said:

    The US government bought millions of doses of Paxlovid, with the consequence that pretty much *anyone* can get a prescription if they catch Covid.

    The speed of my doctor's appointment may be a consequence of my insurance, but the rapid prescribing of a drug that will likely cut my recovery down to days is a consequence of decent Federal purchasing.
    Where would you be if you had no insurance RCS?

    Genuinely curious, as I know as much about health care in the US as the average American knows about the NHS.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,204
    @guyverhofstadt
    Europe is not fit for the world of tomorrow.

    Only a European Union without veto’s can survive !

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1534804165326737408
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    This is one reason why governments in some other countries (Ireland, Germany) have responded by cutting public transport fares.

    It should encourage those who can use public transport instead to do so, thereby reducing overall demand for fuel.
    That makes for a few people changing behaviour at the margin, and for personal travel, but still leaves millions of people who can’t choose not to drive to work. The cost of dropping fuel duty is tiny in the grand scheme of things right now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Leon said:

    Don’t you live in Hampstead? Driving in NW3 is a nightmare. Parking is worse.

    Owning a car in central or central-ish London is quite hard to justify, unless you have small children. And I speak as someone who has a car, which costs me loads. And often it just sits there. And the kids are no longer small

    Hmpft

    Ha! No. I live in the far-flung northern suburbs, not quite as glamorous as NW3. However, it's probably not much better here than there.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    @guyverhofstadt
    Europe is not fit for the world of tomorrow.

    Only a European Union without veto’s can survive !

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1534804165326737408

    A horrendous crime against apostrophes. Fetch the black cap.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    biggles said:

    Is Reform being prompted for? Fascinating if so, and people remember they exist. In any case, I doubt they’ll stand in anything like all constituencies next time.
    Not sure tbh, but R and W pretty solidly in the 32 to 34 vs 38 to 40 range now with the odd outlier.
    The background levels seem pretty set, could do with seeing a comres to see if that 11 lead was a one off
    Get the sense there is a slight but not dramatic so far drift down for tories
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,204
    biggles said:

    Is Reform being prompted for? Fascinating if not, and people remember they exist. In any case, I doubt they’ll stand in anything like all constituencies next time.
    If they are prompting for them, I wonder if people know who they are? The people saying they would vote for them might think they are indicating support for PR and devolution.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited June 2022

    Westminster Voting Intention (8-9 June):

    Labour 40% (+2)
    Conservative 32% (-2)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5 June

    https://t.co/rtfGoXeO6b https://t.co/Vayt1WEeyB

    Small movement post dog rescue


    All midterm nonsense, yet heading towards the magical 10pt gap that @HYUFD considers the trigger for Boriscide.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850

    @guyverhofstadt
    Europe is not fit for the world of tomorrow.

    Only a European Union without veto’s can survive !

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1534804165326737408

    Why does he have the apostrophe in there? How can I take someone seriously who doesn't know how apostrophes work?
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    An uncharacteristically subdued Nick Ferrari here. Like a school boy getting a bollocking for nicking some sweets.


    https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1534808388319727616?s=21&t=t2NrkFtz1S7sdIZpLY0G2w
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Interesting that Hunt leads with LD voters while Sunak leads with Tory and Labour voters as next Tory leader if Boris goes
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031


    All midterm nonsense, yet heading towards the magical 10pt gap that @HYUFD considers the trigger for Boriscide.
    Can't come soon enough.

    No point in a deeply unpopular leader announcing popular policies. They'll just bank the popular stuff, say thanks and go vote for the other guy who isn't a liar. Even one as despairingly dull as Starmer.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    They will hasten the destruction of everyone's lives, incomes and see rocketing unemployment

    The strongest may try to hold the country to ransom, but this is the one time I am pleased we have a government who will resist unaffordable pay increases

    You can wish it away but the fact is everyone across the western world is going to be poorer, and it is HMG responsibility to protect the poorest - it cannot protect everyone including well paid train drivers
    No, it is not true that "everyone across the western world is going to be poorer". The very rich will not be poorer. They never are. They are the strongest, not the unions.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    If Labour are only 20 seats behind they might well be popular vote winners. The new boundaries, designed by Professor Jeremy Mander, should see to that.
    Though that said, an underwhelming Labour performance would probably be helpful, just so long as the Tories are reduced to below about 290 seats and therefore have no chance of forming another Government that can command confidence.

    In short, the more dependent Labour is on other parties, the further it is from the prospect of ever winning another majority under FPTP, and the more potent the threat of the Tories winning the election after next, so the more likely Labour is to cave to demands from other players for electoral reform.

    PR is desirable, not only in terms of creating a more representative Parliament but also for another crucial reason. The likelihood of the country being forced into another choice between two woefully unsuitable and polarising candidates for Prime Minister, as it was in 2019, would be greatly reduced.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Not sure tbh, but R and W pretty solidly in the 32 to 34 vs 38 to 40 range now with the odd outlier.
    The background levels seem pretty set, could do with seeing a comres to see if that 11 lead was a one off
    Get the sense there is a slight but not dramatic so far drift down for tories
    45-30 now looks possible as a statistical fluke if nothing else, certainly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,842
    Barnesian said:

    I predict a Tory majority of around 2,000 in Tiverton, down from a majority of 24,000, which the Tories will proclaim to be a massive victory. There is a lot of expectation management going on here.

    At 6/1 I'm upping my stake on the Tories taking it, albeit narrowly.
    They're certainly attractive odds for any non-Tory, creating a nice win-win of either a catastrophic Tory defeat or a cash return of 500% in a fortnight.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    An uncharacteristically subdued Nick Ferrari here. Like a school boy getting a bollocking for nicking some sweets.


    https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1534808388319727616?s=21&t=t2NrkFtz1S7sdIZpLY0G2w

    Yes, I don't think Bozza was initially clear that levelling up is about enhancing London's prospects and those of Northern Ireland – two key units of the union that have been maligned for too long. More power to his elbow.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    biggles said:

    45-30 now looks possible as a statistical fluke if nothing else, certainly.
    Yes, id say so. 30 certainly. Im less sure korma chameleon has a 45 in him
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2022

    @guyverhofstadt
    Europe is not fit for the world of tomorrow.

    Only a European Union without veto’s can survive !

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1534804165326737408

    Ignoring the crimes against grammar, imagine the situation where the UK was still in the EU, but with QMV on everything, and with pre-agreed Franco-German and Eurozone positions on everything, before the meeting took place.

    This was always the direction in which things were moving, and why the decision was to be either all the way in, or all the way out.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    That’s nothing. I can state it precisely.

    π
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    IanB2 said:

    They're certainly attractive odds for any non-Tory, creating a nice win-win of either a catastrophic Tory defeat or a cash return of 500% in a fortnight.
    Good point. I might get involved.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Then even if I agree with you (I don't) you need said rules to encourage the opposition to surrender.
    If you know you're GOING to die either way, then why surrender.

    A rumour spread during the Bulge that the Germans weren't taking prisoners (they sort of weren't - they had to move fast) and there was a small massacre by SS against American POWS, but one survived and got away.
    After that, US troops stopped surrendering and fought far more tenaciously because if you're going to die, might as well die fighting.
    After initial shock, American troops began to rally and fight back, some better than others.

    One notable example: the 18 soldiers in USA reconnaissance platoon who held up 500 German paratroopers at Losheim Gap for about a day, thus significantly disrupting the Nazi timetable.

    Also, while news of the Malmedy Massacre did help stiffen US Army resistance, it also meant that GIs took fewer German prisoners afterwards than perhaps they might have. Esp. Waffen SS.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    EPG said:

    In much of Europe it is rationed to the unvaxxed and/or immuno compromised.
    Yep, it's been underbought by European (and Asian) governments.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800
    pigeon said:

    It should certainly implement a shift away from taxation of earned incomes and toward the taxation of assets. Higher taxes on capital gains (including on the sale of primary residences,) sumptuary taxation of second homes and a large expansion in the levying of death duties are also desirable.

    Just to throw an extra idea out there, I would crack down on companies that pay out fat dividends to shareholders whilst imposing real terms pay cuts on their employees. Wage settlements below the rate of inflation should mean no goodies for the owners.
    Anyone who goes near a tax on the sale of private property will not see power

    The other problem of attacking shares and dividends is they make up most peoples pension portfolio which 8f attacked will be equally unpopular

    There is a reason this has not been touched before though a moderation in IHT allowances and a wealth tax time has come
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Yes, id say so. 30 certainly. Im less sure korma chameleon has a 45 in him
    Obviously he'll get 45 tonight now
This discussion has been closed.