Another pretty depressing day at the coalface. I really don't think people understand just how bad things are about to get in the UK (and across Europe).
The UK government has lost market credibility, I've never seen anything like it. One of the directors said that this hasn't happened since the 70s and it won't change without the government falling and being replaced. Though that time the profligate Labour government was replaced by Mrs Thatcher, is Starmer going to bring the same economic revolution that she did? Fuck no he isn't. So our hopes lie in the coward Tory MPs deposing Boris and cleaning house within the party and moving back to fiscal responsibility and then also winning in 2024. I don't see it, the UK is too used to living beyond its means and now it will vote for a government that says it will never have to pay the bill for this.
The last two days have been genuinely depressing. As someone who really does care about the country and where we're headed this is quite possibly the worst I've ever felt about our future. During COVID there was always the sunlit uplands of unlockdown. This time there's no immediate future I can see where the UK regains the credibility that Boris and his cohort of idiots have thrown away. Labour won't get it back so we are where we are until 2029 at least.
Perfectly obvious trajectory since 2016. Sorry. I take no pleasure from it, I’m British, my kids are British. Besides which, I still own property there.
A lost decade or two decades.
That's such a lazy answer when we consider the same is happening all across Europe. The working population is being squeezed by the non-working population everywhere and the UK is no exception. Old people want their 11% pension rises and will impoverish younger people to feather their nests.
That's not entirely new though. The same generation who now ferociously vote themselves pension increases and house price rises are the same ones who supported the squeezing of their parents' pensions in the 1980s to help make the Thatcher tax cuts add up.
A potential Labour government has a few things going for it, though. For a start, their client vote looks like being "people in work", as opposed to the retired and rentiers. Also, Labour in government have been able to do austerity when they absolutely have to (think of Healey or Cripps)- if there's unpleasant medicine to be given, Labour are trusted to give it in a way that Conservatives never can be. Makes sense, because even good Conservative ministers can't shake off the impression that they are enjoying meanness.
Is that enough? Maybe, maybe not. It needs the present government to fail so utterly, the be so discredited, that the opposition can take over and do the necessary thing without electoral pushback. But anyone has to be better than a Prime Minister willing to do to business what happens to stepmoms in those videos. Or the kind of casual decadance that says it's OK for the enconomy to have fifty years of meh because then we will realise the benefits of Renewed National Vigour. That's pretty much my daughter's entire working lifetime, and she hasn't started her GCSEs yet.
Is there any evidence that the current Labour leadership are even thinking of doing the tough measures you say will be needed?
None at all as far as I can see.
And as for @MaxPB - he is probably right that Britain's economic prospects are poor. But I note that he omits to mention one of the reasons for this - Brexit - which he supported.
Until we accept that and think about how to deal with the damage that has caused we won't get anywhere. The Tories won't. Labour seem too scared even to utter the word. So things will continue to get worse.
Once again, what specifically would it have changed? The issue is that we, as a nation, are living beyond our means and the older generation is impoverishing those below it to do so. Brexit doesn't change anything except potentially holding down wages and service costs for those older people. No, it isn't Brexit, it's the selfish baby boomer generation who are unwilling to make the same sacrifices their parents made for the good of the nation. They don't just want to keep all of their own accumulated wealth, they also want to leech off the incomes of younger people through rent and tax transfers.
You're the person complaining about the trains being late when the issue is the giant asteroid in the sky about to annihilate the population.
it's the selfish baby boomer generation that inflicted an inane brexit on the rest of us.
Baby-boomers didn't vote for Brexit per se. Working-class ones did, middle-class ones didn't.
What he understands, is that to change things Labour needs to get elected. Nadia Whitmore does not.
Side note, Rory was excellent, the Tory was an absolute lightweight on QT tonight.
Another side note, Tories, strong on the economy?
Weakest growth other than Russia. It's the economy stupid.
<<The Tories are weak on the economy, weak on crime, and weak on the NHS. It should be an open goal.
I’d like to see Reeves and Cooper with the same level of fire, but they also need someone who can explain that there is another, better way.
The hope thing.>>
Cooper often seems to have to be slightly restrained from harshness, to me. I don't think she has the interpersonal skills of Rayner, Nandy or Mordaunt.
Why does he have the apostrophe in there? How can I take someone seriously who doesn't know how apostrophes work?
Because GV is a native Flemish speaker and English loanwords ending in a vowel or 'y' that get pluralised in Flemish (and Dutch) take an apostrophe in the plural.
It's still wrong in English though but the origins of his slip are obvious.
Why does he have the apostrophe in there? How can I take someone seriously who doesn't know how apostrophes work?
Because GV is a native Flemish speaker and English loanwords ending in a vowel or 'y' that get pluralised in Flemish (and Dutch) take an apostrophe in the plural.
It's still wrong in English though but the origins of his slip are obvious.
Is the space before the exclamation mark also correct in Flemish or Dutch?
Imagine the counterfactual where the Brexit referendum went to plan, and Boris Johnson becomes PM of a UK still within the EU after Cameron retires in 2018, as the standard bearer of diehard Leavers not willing to accept the result of the referendum. How well would that have gone?
It's telling that leavers have given up on defending brexit and now salve their stinging ringpieces with criticism of an imaginary remain scenario that never happened.
Why does he have the apostrophe in there? How can I take someone seriously who doesn't know how apostrophes work?
Because GV is a native Flemish speaker and English loanwords ending in a vowel or 'y' that get pluralised in Flemish (and Dutch) take an apostrophe in the plural.
It's still wrong in English though but the origins of his slip are obvious.
Is the space before the exclamation mark also correct in Flemish or Dutch?
Wes Streeting is the new Tony Blair. That's how he comes across to me.
More worryingly for us non Boris supporting Conservatives, he comes across as far more authentic than Tony Blair ever did even at the height of his success. I really rate Wes Streeting as a very talented politician, he is by far the strongest future Labour leadership candidate in the Shadow Cabinet.
Committee Vice-Chair Liz Cheney led her speech with Trump’s own words: “President Trump believed his supporters at the Capitol were, and I quote, ‘doing what they should be doing’,” she said.
She referenced Trump’s reaction to rioters’ chants of “Hang Mike Pence”: “Maybe our supporters have the right idea … Mike Pence deserves it.”
100% Chris Curtis has been contacted by either Yougov or Zahawi 's lawyers.. His deletions and retractions make me think his statement today regarding Zahawi pressuring to nix the poll rather than a sampling /methodology SNAFU we're the main reason Yougov pulled it
Wes Streeting is the new Tony Blair. That's how he comes across to me.
More worryingly for us non Boris supporting Conservatives, he comes across as far more authentic than Tony Blair ever did even at the height of his success. I really rate Wes Streeting as a very talented politician, he is by far the strongest future Labour leadership candidate in the Shadow Cabinet.
Wes Streeting is the new Tony Blair. That's how he comes across to me.
More worryingly for us non Boris supporting Conservatives, he comes across as far more authentic than Tony Blair ever did even at the height of his success. I really rate Wes Streeting as a very talented politician, he is by far the strongest future Labour leadership candidate in the Shadow Cabinet.
Lisa Nandy far more shrewd than Streeting.
Between Streeting, Nandy, Reeves, Bryant, Benn, Lammy, Phillipson, Allin-Khan, Ashworth, Miliband, and Debbonaire they have a competent and articulate team.
Another pretty depressing day at the coalface. I really don't think people understand just how bad things are about to get in the UK (and across Europe).
The UK government has lost market credibility, I've never seen anything like it. One of the directors said that this hasn't happened since the 70s and it won't change without the government falling and being replaced. Though that time the profligate Labour government was replaced by Mrs Thatcher, is Starmer going to bring the same economic revolution that she did? Fuck no he isn't. So our hopes lie in the coward Tory MPs deposing Boris and cleaning house within the party and moving back to fiscal responsibility and then also winning in 2024. I don't see it, the UK is too used to living beyond its means and now it will vote for a government that says it will never have to pay the bill for this.
The last two days have been genuinely depressing. As someone who really does care about the country and where we're headed this is quite possibly the worst I've ever felt about our future. During COVID there was always the sunlit uplands of unlockdown. This time there's no immediate future I can see where the UK regains the credibility that Boris and his cohort of idiots have thrown away. Labour won't get it back so we are where we are until 2029 at least.
The Callaghan government - by the end - was not profligate*. It started profligate under Wilson**, but Callaghan, Healey and the IMF crisis led to it becoming increasingly orthodox.
What did for them was the Second Oil Crisis of 1978-to-80, where Iranian oil production collapsed from 6m barrels a day to 1.5m - essentially a drop in oil availability very similar to what we've seen with Russia. That led to the Winter of Discontent as unions attempted to raise wages to match rising inflation.
Mrs Thatcher was fortunate. She (a) held her nerve, (b) North Sea oil started flowing and (c) Iranian oil production started to recover.
* Government spending as a percent of GDP dropped from 47% under Wilson to 42% under Callaghan on the eve of the Winter of Disconvent ** Well technically it started under Anthony Barber, but Wilson did nothing to improve things
Wes Streeting is the new Tony Blair. That's how he comes across to me.
More worryingly for us non Boris supporting Conservatives, he comes across as far more authentic than Tony Blair ever did even at the height of his success. I really rate Wes Streeting as a very talented politician, he is by far the strongest future Labour leadership candidate in the Shadow Cabinet.
Wes Streeting is the new Tony Blair. That's how he comes across to me.
More worryingly for us non Boris supporting Conservatives, he comes across as far more authentic than Tony Blair ever did even at the height of his success. I really rate Wes Streeting as a very talented politician, he is by far the strongest future Labour leadership candidate in the Shadow Cabinet.
Lisa Nandy far more shrewd than Streeting.
Seriously, she is not, and if the Labour party were to elect her as their next leader I would be delighted. While she may come across as earnest, she has as much charisma as Keir Starmer which isn't saying much, just this week she proved yet again she maybe earnest but yet again she is not politically astute..
I find it hard to believe Boris will survive the by-elections
Sadly, I am now really worried that he will survive these by-elections despite the results proving that the electorate in these constituencies have decided to back the 148 Conservative MPs who voted they had no confidence in him rather than the 211 who still think he is an election winner... Its the local elections in May all over again, look how that turned out in Scotland and Wales never mind in England.
Seems, if Novara can be believed, that a candidate who had previously worked well with Greens was blocked.
Stroud is well Green Party territory and has been for years.
Actually a very sensible decision. The Stroud Labour group has a tendency to be independently minded (indeed David Drew, while not an MP, sat as an independent councillor). But Cornell is not only in bed (metaphorically) with many highly dodgy individuals and organisations, she’s also running a very controversial and incompetent council.
Between her bungled house building programme, a failed initiative to introduce massive parking charges that nearly caused riots, a substantial deficit and the ongoing chaos of attempted unitarisation selecting her would be the best imaginable way to ensure Labour come third.
Novara typically focus on the parties and the processes of their mates while forgetting the key thing - it’s not about reaching out to the other parties, but reaching out to the voters.
Another pretty depressing day at the coalface. I really don't think people understand just how bad things are about to get in the UK (and across Europe).
The UK government has lost market credibility, I've never seen anything like it. One of the directors said that this hasn't happened since the 70s and it won't change without the government falling and being replaced. Though that time the profligate Labour government was replaced by Mrs Thatcher, is Starmer going to bring the same economic revolution that she did? Fuck no he isn't. So our hopes lie in the coward Tory MPs deposing Boris and cleaning house within the party and moving back to fiscal responsibility and then also winning in 2024. I don't see it, the UK is too used to living beyond its means and now it will vote for a government that says it will never have to pay the bill for this.
The last two days have been genuinely depressing. As someone who really does care about the country and where we're headed this is quite possibly the worst I've ever felt about our future. During COVID there was always the sunlit uplands of unlockdown. This time there's no immediate future I can see where the UK regains the credibility that Boris and his cohort of idiots have thrown away. Labour won't get it back so we are where we are until 2029 at least.
The Callaghan government - by the end - was not profligate*. It started profligate under Wilson**, but Callaghan, Healey and the IMF crisis led to it becoming increasingly orthodox.
What did for them was the Second Oil Crisis of 1978-to-80, where Iranian oil production collapsed from 6m barrels a day to 1.5m - essentially a drop in oil availability very similar to what we've seen with Russia. That led to the Winter of Discontent as unions attempted to raise wages to match rising inflation.
Mrs Thatcher was fortunate. She (a) held her nerve, (b) North Sea oil started flowing and (c) Iranian oil production started to recover.
* Government spending as a percent of GDP dropped from 47% under Wilson to 42% under Callaghan on the eve of the Winter of Disconvent ** Well technically it started under Anthony Barber, but Wilson did nothing to improve things
One final thought on this. Consider the windfall tax/heating help plans from the two parties.
Labour proposed a windfall tax on hydrocarbon firms to give a chunk of help to the neediest.
The Conservatives are implementing that plus a dollop of cash for everyone funded by God Knows What.
I don't think Labour have a plan for what needs to be done. So it will be a scramble. And it might not happen. But their instincts look about right.
I'd much rather there were a socially liberal, fiscally continent, Conservative Party to vote for. But that's, at best, in exile. It may be dead.
Imagine the counterfactual where the Brexit referendum went to plan, and Boris Johnson becomes PM of a UK still within the EU after Cameron retires in 2018, as the standard bearer of diehard Leavers not willing to accept the result of the referendum. How well would that have gone?
It's telling that leavers have given up on defending brexit and now salve their stinging ringpieces with criticism of an imaginary remain scenario that never happened.
I'm not a Leaver. But Brexit was an identity vote, so rehashing all the same arguments about the economic impacts are a denial of reality. People aren't going to suddenly change their view on their identity because of a little economic difficulty. We have to deal with the situation we find ourselves in, not the situation we hoped for.
Right now Johnson is the biggest problem for Britain, not Brexit.
Comments
What he understands, is that to change things Labour needs to get elected. Nadia Whitmore does not.
Side note, Rory was excellent, the Tory was an absolute lightweight on QT tonight.
Another side note, Tories, strong on the economy?
Weakest growth other than Russia. It's the economy stupid.
I’d like to see Reeves and Cooper with the same level of fire, but they also need someone who can explain that there is another, better way.
The hope thing.
<<The Tories are weak on the economy, weak on crime, and weak on the NHS. It should be an open goal.I’d like to see Reeves and Cooper with the same level of fire, but they also need someone who can explain that there is another, better way.
The hope thing.>>
Cooper often seems to have to be slightly restrained from harshness, to me. I don't think she has the interpersonal skills of Rayner, Nandy or Mordaunt.
🟩🟨⬜🟨⬜
🟩⬜🟨⬜🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
It's still wrong in English though but the origins of his slip are obvious.
Committee Vice-Chair Liz Cheney led her speech with Trump’s own words: “President Trump believed his supporters at the Capitol were, and I quote, ‘doing what they should be doing’,” she said.
She referenced Trump’s reaction to rioters’ chants of “Hang Mike Pence”: “Maybe our supporters have the right idea … Mike Pence deserves it.”
His deletions and retractions make me think his statement today regarding Zahawi pressuring to nix the poll rather than a sampling /methodology SNAFU we're the main reason Yougov pulled it
I have an issue with Starmer and Rayner.
What did for them was the Second Oil Crisis of 1978-to-80, where Iranian oil production collapsed from 6m barrels a day to 1.5m - essentially a drop in oil availability very similar to what we've seen with Russia. That led to the Winter of Discontent as unions attempted to raise wages to match rising inflation.
Mrs Thatcher was fortunate. She (a) held her nerve, (b) North Sea oil started flowing and (c) Iranian oil production started to recover.
* Government spending as a percent of GDP dropped from 47% under Wilson to 42% under Callaghan on the eve of the Winter of Disconvent
** Well technically it started under Anthony Barber, but Wilson did nothing to improve things
You know who else has an obsession with Hitler?
Between her bungled house building programme, a failed initiative to introduce massive parking charges that nearly caused riots, a substantial deficit and the ongoing chaos of attempted unitarisation selecting her would be the best imaginable way to ensure Labour come third.
Novara typically focus on the parties and the processes of their mates while forgetting the key thing - it’s not about reaching out to the other parties, but reaching out to the voters.
Labour proposed a windfall tax on hydrocarbon firms to give a chunk of help to the neediest.
The Conservatives are implementing that plus a dollop of cash for everyone funded by God Knows What.
I don't think Labour have a plan for what needs to be done. So it will be a scramble. And it might not happen. But their instincts look about right.
I'd much rather there were a socially liberal, fiscally continent, Conservative Party to vote for. But that's, at best, in exile. It may be dead.
Right now Johnson is the biggest problem for Britain, not Brexit.