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Nerve-racking.0
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Straight over my head....
time for a cuppa and will try again.0 -
FPT: Good evening, everyone.
Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/0 -
Love the cartoon.Dave is on the TV upsetting the effin sheep again.0
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Oops.
Why are we paying them to eat deep-fried mars bars when we can’t even get decent health care in this country? - Nadine Dorries
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Oh look, we've sent more jihadists to Syria than Turkey:
http://www.rferl.org/contentinfographics/foreign-fighters-syria-iraq-is-isis-isil-infographic/26584940.html0 -
I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...
First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)
They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)
Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1
BUT!!!!!
They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!
Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO
Labour fifty to one on??? Never
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party0 -
Members of the European Parliament could block an independent Scotland’s EU membership if it insists on keeping currency and border treaty opt-outs negotiated by the UK, sources in the two largest political groups in Brussels told EurActiv.
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/uk-europe/meps-could-block-scotlands-eu-membership-if-it-pushes-euro-opt-out-3084340 -
Dave making the English people angry here.0
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I notice all this years extraordinary political events have seen PB's Alexa ranking getting close to being within the top 100,000 website's on the internet!
Mike will have ad networks beating his door down soon...0 -
Awesome speech by Dave. Found it very moving.0
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Er. I don't get it?0
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In the three prior by elections in the NW this parliament, Labour has increased it's vote share by 10.2%, 16.4% and 11.2%; all in seats it was already holding.isam said:They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
They start with 40.7% and have a 22.7% Lib Dem vote to squeeze in addition.
They'll poll 50-55% if they run true to form.
UKIP will get c.20%.
The North West is going to be Labour's strongest region for gains next May.
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Clacton betfair is a quiet if volatile market thus far....
Come on Rev Oswald!!!!0 -
Does anyone know if there is a way to see the Betfair market without going via their site - it's blocked at work? I don't actually need to be able to bet.0
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x2Hugh said:Er. I don't get it?
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That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.0 -
Nothing wrong with Harry Potter, but J. K. Rowling alongside Davie Hume?Eh_ehm_a_eh said:Dave making the English people angry here.
And he's going for the panda vote - with Darwin on the screen earlier.
Hmm.
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He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.0 -
I agree with you - I think that they haven't taken into account the local Labour difficulties / arguments about a lack of local candidate and the speed with which UKIP have got out and about canvassing. I wouldn't make UKIP favourites by any means, but would be much closer to 5/2 than the 10/1 at Hills.isam said:I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...
First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)
They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)
Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1
BUT!!!!!
They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!
Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO
Labour fifty to one on??? Never
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party0 -
Cracking speech from Cameron.0
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A Prime Minister that presided over the break up of his nation should not carry on in his job.TheWatcher said:
He'll be polite and let Miliband go first. He's been utterly useless.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.0 -
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He had good stuff on "don't be inTIMidated" - not lost on you that one eh ?Hugh said:
He's privately seen the data and knows it's going to be No so wants some credit.SeanT said:Good speech by Cameron. But why oh why did he leave it so late?
Or
He's privately seen the data and is crapping himself because his job is hanging by a thread.0 -
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Mr. 56, not everyone has a mobile.0
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Nice cartoon, Marf!
Haven't heard Dave's speech. But he's still an arrogant, puffed-up Bullingdon posh-boy
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Also banned..Rexel56 said:0 -
Ah, I see.Hugh said:
A Prime Minister that presided over the break up of his nation should not carry on in his job.TheWatcher said:
He'll be polite and let Miliband go first. He's been utterly useless.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
Tories are improving in the polls so it's 'lets find an excuse to get Cameron out' time.0 -
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Could you explain the cartoon to the rest of the class?Sunil_Prasannan said:Nice cartoon, Marf!
Haven't heard Dave's speech. But he's still an arrogant, puffed-up Bullingdon posh-boy0 -
Hugh said:
Could you explain the cartoon to the rest of the class?Sunil_Prasannan said:Nice cartoon, Marf!
Haven't heard Dave's speech. But he's still an arrogant, puffed-up Bullingdon posh-boy
There are several sheep and a sheepdog.
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Dr. Prasannan, if Labour had been around in the 4th century BC they would've criticised Alexander the Great for having a private tutor*.
*Even if it was Aristotle.0 -
Very naughty Marf - implying that the YESSERS are sheep and are going to take it out on those they dislike in that 'Brave New Scotland" after a Yes vote.....(rue the day, retribution, nationalisation.....)0
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It’s a reference to Jim Sillar’s “day of reckoning" speech against the ‘bully boys’ if YES win.Hugh said:
Could you explain the cartoon to the rest of the class?Sunil_Prasannan said:Nice cartoon, Marf!
Haven't heard Dave's speech. But he's still an arrogant, puffed-up Bullingdon posh-boy0 -
Well indeed... Or JonWC might be banned from using a mobile in the office... I found that one company where I was working had an extensive black list for the web but didn't block the remote access tool GoToMyPc so I could use my home PC to browse whatever I needed to....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 56, not everyone has a mobile.
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Marf, you'll rue the day.0
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This is the general way that election campaigns are focussed. And of course this campaign is not being run by Cameron or the tories.AllyM said:
Rather leave it to now than way too early.SeanT said:Good speech by Cameron. But why oh why did he leave it so late?
I guess anyway.TheWatcher said:
He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.
Correct. cameron has not presaided over anything. Those 'No' posters are clearly painted red and yellow. Labour created devolution Labour mismanaged and lost Scot, and Labour are running the No campaignTheWatcher said:
He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.
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transcript of Cameron speech
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html0 -
Watcher
Only on PB could an increasing average Lab lead be interpreted as a decreasing Lab lead.
Only on PB.0 -
Vote NO, get Ed!
Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave!0 -
Point of order!CarlottaVance said:Very naughty Marf - implying that the YESSERS are sheep and are going to take it out on those they dislike in that 'Brave New Scotland" after a Yes vote.....(rue the day, retribution, nationalisation.....)
The dog will have to wait until the 19th for the sheep to put him in the doghouse!0 -
Mr Dancer,Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Prasannan, if Labour had been around in the 4th century BC they would've criticised Alexander the Great for having a private tutor*.
*Even if it was Aristotle.
Unlike Hannibal, Alexander did at least venture as far east as India!0 -
Yes Reggie.__Bobajob__ said:Watcher
Only on PB could an increasing average Lab lead be interpreted as a decreasing Lab lead.
Only on PB.0 -
0
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He generally does leave it to the last minute to pull rabbits out of the hat lamost too late, those who think a Labour victory in 2015 is a certainty need to take note.SeanT said:Good speech by Cameron. But why oh why did he leave it so late?
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If YES wins, it maximises the chances of the Tories winning the election in rUK next year. However, that may mean they need a new leader come Friday!0
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Suprised that the sheep aren't bleating..TheWatcher said:Marf, you'll rue the day.
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They should all be holding anti BBC placards.TGOHF said:
Suprised that the sheep aren't bleating..TheWatcher said:Marf, you'll rue the day.
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Dr. Prasannan, given Hannibal wanted to beat Rome I'm not sure marching to India would have been particularly helpful...0
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Well, we'll just have to disagree. The WLQ does need answering; on that, I think we can agree. And while I disagree with Ferguson's argument, which essentially comes down to that we shouldn't have an English parliament because the London media is lazy, I do think he's stumbled across something resembling the true problem.Morris_Dancer said:FPT: Good evening, everyone.
Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/
An separate English parliament would too closely resemble the UK one to be anything other than a rival and near-duplicate; an English parliament comprising only English MPs of the UK parliament would cause too many tensions within Westminster with differing mandates and the ridiculous position that a government could win votes of confidence and pass budgets to stay in office and raise money, but had policies imposed upon it by the 'opposition' as to how to spend that money.
Westminster should have a single purpose: the Federal Parliament of the United Kingdom. Devolution, which must happen to rebalance the equation with Wales and N Ireland, never mind what happens in Scotland, should be to English regions. If there needs to be further discussion on where the borders should be, fine - but that doesn't change the central point.0 -
But Rome is just a short hop across the Med from Carthage/Tunisia. Now, Alexander, he had true adventuring spirit!Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Prasannan, given Hannibal wanted to beat Rome I'm not sure marching to India would have been particularly helpful...
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Why would 'we' send jihadists to Turkey?Socrates said:Oh look, we've sent more jihadists to Syria than Turkey:
http://www.rferl.org/contentinfographics/foreign-fighters-syria-iraq-is-isis-isil-infographic/26584940.html0 -
Leo Ulloa has scored 3 in 4 matches, against Everton, Arsenal and Stoke. 66/1 was worth a couple of quid each way. I agree Costa was good, definitely the best player for Arsenal the other week.isam said:I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...
First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)
They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)
Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1
BUT!!!!!
They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!
Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO
Labour fifty to one on??? Never
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party0 -
Mr. Herdson, regionalisation would be unforgivable and is indefensible. It would institutionalise division and breed bitterness. Would London be satisfied sending tax money north? Would northern assemblies be happy getting less per head than London?
England's one land, not there to be carved into pieces by Westminster.
Dr. Prasannan, I fear you should read TA Dodge's excellent Hannibal biography/history (simply entitled Hannibal, and be careful you get the full book as some abridged versions are not marked as such).0 -
Caveat: some No stuff is royal blue and white - Tory?Flightpath said:
This is the general way that election campaigns are focussed. And of course this campaign is not being run by Cameron or the tories.AllyM said:
Rather leave it to now than way too early.SeanT said:Good speech by Cameron. But why oh why did he leave it so late?
I guess anyway.TheWatcher said:
He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.
Correct. cameron has not presaided over anything. Those 'No' posters are clearly painted red and yellow. Labour created devolution Labour mismanaged and lost Scot, and Labour are running the No campaignTheWatcher said:
He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.
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Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
Dave making the English people angry here.
Not this one. The plain fact is that going independent will be bad for Scotland, but it will be bad for England too. It will iompoverish us all.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:Dave making the English people angry here.
One thing is for sure this is no way to go on about it. Its plain crazy the Scots voting without any clear plan for their independence and thats all down to the SNP.0 -
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Some of it's purple. Will Farage be walking the plank too?Carnyx said:
Caveat: some No stuff is royal blue and white - Tory?Flightpath said:
This is the general way that election campaigns are focussed. And of course this campaign is not being run by Cameron or the tories.AllyM said:
Rather leave it to now than way too early.SeanT said:Good speech by Cameron. But why oh why did he leave it so late?
I guess anyway.TheWatcher said:
He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.
Correct. cameron has not presaided over anything. Those 'No' posters are clearly painted red and yellow. Labour created devolution Labour mismanaged and lost Scot, and Labour are running the No campaignTheWatcher said:
He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.Hugh said:That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.0 -
I get the impression realism is starting to intrude into the debate up here. Whether enough people who have "made the journey to Yes" will actually bring themselves to head right back to "Maybe No" again, remains to be seen.0
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I assume "More...than Turkey" means there are fewer Turkish Jihadists than Brits.david_herdson said:
Why would 'we' send jihadists to Turkey?Socrates said:Oh look, we've sent more jihadists to Syria than Turkey:
http://www.rferl.org/contentinfographics/foreign-fighters-syria-iraq-is-isis-isil-infographic/26584940.html0 -
In this afternoon's speech, Cameron's has said iScots wouldn't be in British Lions.
Are Irish now to be thrown out too?
Good to see PM so clued up on non-England.0 -
foxinsoxuk said:
Leo Ulloa has scored 3 in 4 matches, against Everton, Arsenal and Stoke. 66/1 was worth a couple of quid each way. I agree Costa was good, definitely the best player for Chelsea the other week.isam said:I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...
First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)
They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)
Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1
BUT!!!!!
They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!
Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO
Labour fifty to one on??? Never
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party
Edited! Confusing my South American strikers!0 -
I'm not happy about London being constantly voted so much. Having a parliament for Yorkshire, say, would not stop England from existing. People quite happily have multiple national identities, despite the best efforts of some Scottish nationalists to reject the concept.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Herdson, regionalisation would be unforgivable and is indefensible. It would institutionalise division and breed bitterness. Would London be satisfied sending tax money north? Would northern assemblies be happy getting less per head than London?
England's one land, not there to be carved into pieces by Westminster.
Dr. Prasannan, I fear you should read TA Dodge's excellent Hannibal biography/history (simply entitled Hannibal, and be careful you get the full book as some abridged versions are not marked as such).
In any case, London already sends tax money north; it's just that it's not quite as obvious as it would be if it came in a block grant.
Federal structures work perfectly well (or at least, a damn sight better than the current UK set-up) in all sorts of countries across the world, from the States to Switzerland. I'm quite sure we could manage.0 -
Guardian ICM phone Poll
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters0 -
Ulloa was a decent bet on Saturday but I only got pennies onfoxinsoxuk said:
Leo Ulloa has scored 3 in 4 matches, against Everton, Arsenal and Stoke. 66/1 was worth a couple of quid each way. I agree Costa was good, definitely the best player for Arsenal the other week.isam said:I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...
First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)
They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)
Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1
BUT!!!!!
They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!
Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO
Labour fifty to one on??? Never
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party
He was one of my long standing favs for Brighton in the last two season, made decent money out of him... seems he can cut it in the Prem too0 -
Yes, Wm Hill still go 20/1 against Costa to be Champs League top goal scorer, that's a great bet thanks and oddly generous given that Chelsea are a 7/1 shot to win. Each way 1-4 looks worthwhile imo.isam said:I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...
First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)
They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)
Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1
BUT!!!!!
They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!
Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO
Labour fifty to one on??? Never
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party
Corals are also offering the same odds if you can navigate their impossible website!0 -
I feel it was bound to happen so close to the vote.FF42 said:I get the impression realism is starting to intrude into the debate up here. Whether enough people who have "made the journey to Yes" will actually bring themselves to head right back to "Maybe No" again, remains to be seen.
What difference it will make, if any, I have no idea.
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Aren't Coral only 3 places? That's still a good bet but 1/4 1234 is Goldenpeter_from_putney said:
Yes, Wm Hill still go 20/1 against Costa to be Champs League top goal scorer, that's a great bet thanks and oddly generous given that Chelsea are a 7/1 shot to win. Each way 1-4 looks worthwhile imo.isam said:I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...
First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)
They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)
Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1
BUT!!!!!
They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!
Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO
Labour fifty to one on??? Never
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party
Corals are also offering the same odds if you can navigate their impossible website!0 -
Hear hear.Morris_Dancer said:
England's one land, not there to be carved into pieces by Westminster.
An emotional speech by Cameron btw, and a pretty decent one, but then he has always been able to deliver a decent speech. He's obviously well trained in the political arts, and like others that means usually he just comes across as too intentionally sincere to be effective, if that makes any sense (in that no matter how sincere and emotional he may be - and this applies to many others as well - he is so obviously conscious about how he displays that sincerity. All speakers are, but his and most others are too obvious about it), but occasionally he does manage more effective delivery.
But in truth I am depressed about the whole business. We have to hope that shy Noes are indeed a thing, but is there any hint this will be the case, that DKs will switch mostly to No? I had thought DKs had been breaking for Yes as the time approached, and in any case is their reserve so extreme they have kept their heads down this much? Additionally, even if there is a shy No phenomenon, will it be enough to overcome the massive turnout? I've not come across many arguing the unprecedented level of registrations signals anything other than lots of people doing so for the first time so they can vote Yes. Amazingly shy No voters seem unlikely to counter that when the polling could be missing both of them.
So noted, but the problem is Cameron is only one factor involved in how a Labour victory will come about, and he lacks the ability to influence many of them by this point.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
He generally does leave it to the last minute to pull rabbits out of the hat almost too late, those who think a Labour victory in 2015 is a certainty need to take note.SeanT said:Good speech by Cameron. But why oh why did he leave it so late?
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Sorry, just realised we'd gone to a new thread...
@ Stackbladder, Tissue_Price, TSE, CarlottaVance, RodCrosby and anyone that I missed, thank you all for the feedback, I guess I've been lurking on here for too long!
Nice to see other people working on models:
@ RodCrosby I didn't quite follow which area was which in your graphic but it sounds very interesting.
@ AndyJS thanks for the posts on my site, I'll take a look at your spreadsheet when I've closed a few other spreadsheets
My computer is about to explode!
Regarding the 1992 exit poll, it actually wasn't *that* far off in terms of the popular vote, certainly nothing like as bad as the opinion polls... BBC didn't give the popular vote totals, but ITN (a separate poll in those days, but with very similar seat projections) had CON 41 LAB 37 LIB 18 OTH 4 (see http://www.tv-ark.org.uk/mivana/mediaplayer.php?id=fb0c6d35c21fe72eccde5b61277efc2f&media=itv_election1992&type=mp4 ). It also did a good job of picking up the electoral "skew" towards Labour, which hadn't been there in 1987. Jon Snow actually mentions this directly in the linked video.
Incidentally I've been doing some work on this 'skew' which I'll post at some point after the referendum.
NC0 -
7% for the Greens! Must be a while since they were within 3% of third in any poll!TheScreamingEagles said:Guardian ICM phone Poll
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters0 -
Mr. Herdson, other countries perhaps. But we didn't carve Scotland into Lowlands, Highlands and Islands, did we?
What's good enough for Scotland is good enough for England. It isn't for politicians to slice up England into what they hope will be little fiefdoms for their parties. England's one land, and if the Conservatives advocate breaking it up I shan't be wasting my vote on them.0 -
I see the new voters registering for Yes just a touch hard to believe in totality. From a basic, non aligned standpoint.
Surely two things should be considered:
1) 16 and 17 year olds registering en masse now that they can. Would've thought nearly all of them would sign up.
2) It's a decision for everyone's future. Yes or no, surely everyone wants a say?
No slight on anyone. I personally, just find it hard to believe that nearly every new voter is a Yes on the extreme I've seen to the majority signing on the more considered side to sign up for Yes.
It may be the case that what I've just criticised becomes the case, and that's fine. Just from a logical standpoint, I can't see it because, it's a referendum on the future of a nation.
Surely everyone, wants a say, whatever way they vote, No and Yes?0 -
Wow - UKIP in single figures, Greens at 7%. Both good numbers for the Tories for different reasons.TheScreamingEagles said:Guardian ICM phone Poll
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters0 -
You are accusing me of being another poster yet again, a obsessive habit of yours.TheWatcher said:
Yes Reggie.__Bobajob__ said:Watcher
Only on PB could an increasing average Lab lead be interpreted as a decreasing Lab lead.
Only on PB.
Let me assure you: I have never posted as anyone called Reggie. Indeed, I have never even heard of such a poster.
Now keep your weird wild fantasies to yourself.0 -
Broken sleazy UKIP on the slide. 5% at the GE beckons.TheScreamingEagles said:Guardian ICM phone Poll
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters
Meanwhile: Scotland - don't listen to Cameron. He's lying. Vote Yes to be free of English Tooories. Vote Yes for free deep-fried Mars bars. Go Scotland!0 -
I dont think you want regional parliaments, you want assemblies on the London model for Greater Manchester, Merseyside, "South & West Yorkshire", West Midlands & "Tees, Wear & Tyneside.
A further English Assembly would have similar powers over all parts of England not part of Greater London or the "Metropolitan Counties" and would meet in Westminster Hall and comprise English MPs from non metroplitan county constituencies.
All the assemblies should have at least the powers of the Welsh assembly with powers devolved from Westminster.
I don't want too see England broken up into regions but it is time to stop the large cities and celtic fringes effectively ruling the rest of us.
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Yes 4.3
No 1.290 -
Independence would not be a trial separation. It would be a painful divorce. And as Prime Minister I have to tell you what that would mean.TGOHF said:transcript of Cameron speech
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html
It would mean we no longer share the same currency.
It would mean the armed forces we have built up together over centuries being split up forever.
It would mean our pension funds sliced up – at some cost.
It would mean the borders we have would become international and may no longer be so easily crossed.
It would mean the automatic support that you currently get from British embassies when you’re travelling around the world would come to an end.
It would mean over half of Scottish mortgages suddenly, from one day to the next, being provided by banks in a foreign country.0 -
Evening all,
Been away from the Mac today, so just getting back up to speed with developments. I see that odds on Hague being next PM have shortened from the 50/1 you could get last week to around 30.0 -
Could the greens be starting to take votes off Labour as well as LibDems?david_herdson said:
7% for the Greens! Must be a while since they were within 3% of third in any poll!TheScreamingEagles said:Guardian ICM phone Poll
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters0 -
First ICM poll to be included in ELBOW (there haven't been any since the 10th August IIRC).TheScreamingEagles said:Guardian ICM phone Poll
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters0 -
Morris Dancer, Scotland is a tenth the size of England and adopting Napoleonic centralism for England is a rubbish way of running a country this size.0
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I heard David Cameron's speech as I returned very bedraggled from some pretty damp canvassing. It was excellent and said many of the things that I have in my own small way been seeking to say on here.
This is a country that we should be rightly proud of. Scots should be proud of it too because they played more than their fair share in building it.
It is an element that has been missing from the campaign. Being British is something to be proud of and something none of us should have to give up. I just hope this plea to and from the heart by the PM of our country has not come too late.
We had the cameras with us tonight so the teams were more consolidated for TV purposes which made the GOTV aspect less productive than I would have liked but I got a few "undecideds" who were now voting no and none at all who had switched to Yes.0 -
How many seats are they contesting? Must be immense value to win a couple if they are anywhere near 7%david_herdson said:
7% for the Greens! Must be a while since they were within 3% of third in any poll!TheScreamingEagles said:Guardian ICM phone Poll
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters0 -
Try as I might, I cannot grasp the cartoon. What on earth is it supposed to say?0
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Another nice one Marf!
The UK polls are pretty clear that Labour is only just ahead at the moment after a week when the lead was bigger, with the Greens doing quite well in several polls: perhaps they've had a conference bounce like everyone else?
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Does feel like polls are closing up again... But I'm wary of reading too much into this given Scotland, soon to be followed by conference season. Could be a volatile few weeks...david_herdson said:
7% for the Greens! Must be a while since they were within 3% of third in any poll!TheScreamingEagles said:Guardian ICM phone Poll
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters0 -
OK, so I'm getting Lab 33.07, Con 31.89, UKIP 14.57, LD 8.27 for Ashcroft when looking at his tables. Why does he say the headline figures are 33, 33, 14 and 9?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ANP-Full-tables-140915.pdf0 -
Mr. Kevin, welcome to pb.com.
In population terms, that's about right. I fail to see why you think Scotland should have devolution to the max, and England should have none whatsoever.0
