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time for a cuppa and will try again.
Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/
Why are we paying them to eat deep-fried mars bars when we can’t even get decent health care in this country? - Nadine Dorries
http://www.rferl.org/contentinfographics/foreign-fighters-syria-iraq-is-isis-isil-infographic/26584940.html
First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)
They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)
Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1
BUT!!!!!
They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!
Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!
Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO
Labour fifty to one on??? Never
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/uk-europe/meps-could-block-scotlands-eu-membership-if-it-pushes-euro-opt-out-308434
Mike will have ad networks beating his door down soon...
They start with 40.7% and have a 22.7% Lib Dem vote to squeeze in addition.
They'll poll 50-55% if they run true to form.
UKIP will get c.20%.
The North West is going to be Labour's strongest region for gains next May.
Come on Rev Oswald!!!!
Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.
Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.
I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.
And he's going for the panda vote - with Darwin on the screen earlier.
Hmm.
Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.
Or
He's privately seen the data and is crapping himself because his job is hanging by a thread.
I guess anyway.
Use your mobile phone with non-wifi connection?
Haven't heard Dave's speech. But he's still an arrogant, puffed-up Bullingdon posh-boy
Tories are improving in the polls so it's 'lets find an excuse to get Cameron out' time.
There are several sheep and a sheepdog.
*Even if it was Aristotle.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html
'A Prime Minister that presided over the break up of his nation should not carry on in his job.'
If 'Yes' does win it will be due to Labour voters ignoring Ed,should he also resign ?
Only on PB could an increasing average Lab lead be interpreted as a decreasing Lab lead.
Only on PB.
Vote YES, get (rid of) Dave!
The dog will have to wait until the 19th for the sheep to put him in the doghouse!
Unlike Hannibal, Alexander did at least venture as far east as India!
An separate English parliament would too closely resemble the UK one to be anything other than a rival and near-duplicate; an English parliament comprising only English MPs of the UK parliament would cause too many tensions within Westminster with differing mandates and the ridiculous position that a government could win votes of confidence and pass budgets to stay in office and raise money, but had policies imposed upon it by the 'opposition' as to how to spend that money.
Westminster should have a single purpose: the Federal Parliament of the United Kingdom. Devolution, which must happen to rebalance the equation with Wales and N Ireland, never mind what happens in Scotland, should be to English regions. If there needs to be further discussion on where the borders should be, fine - but that doesn't change the central point.
England's one land, not there to be carved into pieces by Westminster.
Dr. Prasannan, I fear you should read TA Dodge's excellent Hannibal biography/history (simply entitled Hannibal, and be careful you get the full book as some abridged versions are not marked as such).
One thing is for sure this is no way to go on about it. Its plain crazy the Scots voting without any clear plan for their independence and thats all down to the SNP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Britain_Day
Are Irish now to be thrown out too?
Good to see PM so clued up on non-England.
In any case, London already sends tax money north; it's just that it's not quite as obvious as it would be if it came in a block grant.
Federal structures work perfectly well (or at least, a damn sight better than the current UK set-up) in all sorts of countries across the world, from the States to Switzerland. I'm quite sure we could manage.
Con 33 (+2)
Lab 35 (-3)
LD 10 (-2)
UKIP 9 (-1)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters
He was one of my long standing favs for Brighton in the last two season, made decent money out of him... seems he can cut it in the Prem too
Corals are also offering the same odds if you can navigate their impossible website!
What difference it will make, if any, I have no idea.
An emotional speech by Cameron btw, and a pretty decent one, but then he has always been able to deliver a decent speech. He's obviously well trained in the political arts, and like others that means usually he just comes across as too intentionally sincere to be effective, if that makes any sense (in that no matter how sincere and emotional he may be - and this applies to many others as well - he is so obviously conscious about how he displays that sincerity. All speakers are, but his and most others are too obvious about it), but occasionally he does manage more effective delivery.
But in truth I am depressed about the whole business. We have to hope that shy Noes are indeed a thing, but is there any hint this will be the case, that DKs will switch mostly to No? I had thought DKs had been breaking for Yes as the time approached, and in any case is their reserve so extreme they have kept their heads down this much? Additionally, even if there is a shy No phenomenon, will it be enough to overcome the massive turnout? I've not come across many arguing the unprecedented level of registrations signals anything other than lots of people doing so for the first time so they can vote Yes. Amazingly shy No voters seem unlikely to counter that when the polling could be missing both of them. So noted, but the problem is Cameron is only one factor involved in how a Labour victory will come about, and he lacks the ability to influence many of them by this point.
@ Stackbladder, Tissue_Price, TSE, CarlottaVance, RodCrosby and anyone that I missed, thank you all for the feedback, I guess I've been lurking on here for too long!
Nice to see other people working on models:
@ RodCrosby I didn't quite follow which area was which in your graphic but it sounds very interesting.
@ AndyJS thanks for the posts on my site, I'll take a look at your spreadsheet when I've closed a few other spreadsheets
Regarding the 1992 exit poll, it actually wasn't *that* far off in terms of the popular vote, certainly nothing like as bad as the opinion polls... BBC didn't give the popular vote totals, but ITN (a separate poll in those days, but with very similar seat projections) had CON 41 LAB 37 LIB 18 OTH 4 (see http://www.tv-ark.org.uk/mivana/mediaplayer.php?id=fb0c6d35c21fe72eccde5b61277efc2f&media=itv_election1992&type=mp4 ). It also did a good job of picking up the electoral "skew" towards Labour, which hadn't been there in 1987. Jon Snow actually mentions this directly in the linked video.
Incidentally I've been doing some work on this 'skew' which I'll post at some point after the referendum.
NC
What's good enough for Scotland is good enough for England. It isn't for politicians to slice up England into what they hope will be little fiefdoms for their parties. England's one land, and if the Conservatives advocate breaking it up I shan't be wasting my vote on them.
Surely two things should be considered:
1) 16 and 17 year olds registering en masse now that they can. Would've thought nearly all of them would sign up.
2) It's a decision for everyone's future. Yes or no, surely everyone wants a say?
No slight on anyone. I personally, just find it hard to believe that nearly every new voter is a Yes on the extreme I've seen to the majority signing on the more considered side to sign up for Yes.
It may be the case that what I've just criticised becomes the case, and that's fine. Just from a logical standpoint, I can't see it because, it's a referendum on the future of a nation.
Surely everyone, wants a say, whatever way they vote, No and Yes?
Let me assure you: I have never posted as anyone called Reggie. Indeed, I have never even heard of such a poster.
Now keep your weird wild fantasies to yourself.
Meanwhile: Scotland - don't listen to Cameron. He's lying. Vote Yes to be free of English Tooories. Vote Yes for free deep-fried Mars bars. Go Scotland!
A further English Assembly would have similar powers over all parts of England not part of Greater London or the "Metropolitan Counties" and would meet in Westminster Hall and comprise English MPs from non metroplitan county constituencies.
All the assemblies should have at least the powers of the Welsh assembly with powers devolved from Westminster.
I don't want too see England broken up into regions but it is time to stop the large cities and celtic fringes effectively ruling the rest of us.
No 1.29
It would mean we no longer share the same currency.
It would mean the armed forces we have built up together over centuries being split up forever.
It would mean our pension funds sliced up – at some cost.
It would mean the borders we have would become international and may no longer be so easily crossed.
It would mean the automatic support that you currently get from British embassies when you’re travelling around the world would come to an end.
It would mean over half of Scottish mortgages suddenly, from one day to the next, being provided by banks in a foreign country.
Been away from the Mac today, so just getting back up to speed with developments. I see that odds on Hague being next PM have shortened from the 50/1 you could get last week to around 30.
This is a country that we should be rightly proud of. Scots should be proud of it too because they played more than their fair share in building it.
It is an element that has been missing from the campaign. Being British is something to be proud of and something none of us should have to give up. I just hope this plea to and from the heart by the PM of our country has not come too late.
We had the cameras with us tonight so the teams were more consolidated for TV purposes which made the GOTV aspect less productive than I would have liked but I got a few "undecideds" who were now voting no and none at all who had switched to Yes.
The UK polls are pretty clear that Labour is only just ahead at the moment after a week when the lead was bigger, with the Greens doing quite well in several polls: perhaps they've had a conference bounce like everyone else?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ANP-Full-tables-140915.pdf
In population terms, that's about right. I fail to see why you think Scotland should have devolution to the max, and England should have none whatsoever.