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  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited September 2014

    7% for the Greens! Must be a while since they were within 3% of third in any poll!
    Could the greens be starting to take votes off Labour as well as LibDems?
    They are on 5% on the UKPR average, you just don't notice them as their number is often not reported.
  • Keep up the good work, Mr. L. I hope you enjoy a rest (and a victory) later this week.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    Keep up the good work, Mr. L. I hope you enjoy a rest (and a victory) later this week.

    Agreed. Well said.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    7% for the Greens! Must be a while since they were within 3% of third in any poll!
    Could the greens be starting to take votes off Labour as well as LibDems?
    Given the way they position themselves as more left than Labour, I'm amazed it has taken this long, if indeed that is what is happening. What odds Lucas keeps her seat though?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    isam said:

    I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...

    First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)

    They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)

    Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1

    BUT!!!!!

    They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!

    Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!

    Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO

    Labour fifty to one on??? Never

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party

    Yes, Wm Hill still go 20/1 against Costa to be Champs League top goal scorer, that's a great bet thanks and oddly generous given that Chelsea are a 7/1 shot to win. Each way 1-4 looks worthwhile imo.
    Corals are also offering the same odds if you can navigate their impossible website!
    Aren't Coral only 3 places? That's still a good bet but 1/4 1234 is Golden
    You're probably right - I couldn't actually find it on their site! Suarez at the same price looks quite tasty too, if you reckon that Barca will reach the final.
    That's with Laddies and 365 btw.
  • Yes 4.3
    No 1.29

    The odds on YES have been gradually coming in all day...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    isam said:

    I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...

    First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)

    They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)

    Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1

    BUT!!!!!

    They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!

    Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!

    Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO

    Labour fifty to one on??? Never

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party

    Leo Ulloa has scored 3 in 4 matches, against Everton, Arsenal and Stoke. 66/1 was worth a couple of quid each way. I agree Costa was good, definitely the best player for Arsenal the other week.
    Ulloa was a decent bet on Saturday but I only got pennies on

    He was one of my long standing favs for Brighton in the last two season, made decent money out of him... seems he can cut it in the Prem too
    I am mangling the prem teams. Its Leicester that I know best, and very pleased so far, helped by a bit of schadenfreude for QPR.

    My betfair bets have been fairly tightly limited recently, I can only get relatively small bets accepted. Shadsy still seems keen on taking my money though!

  • I dont think you want regional parliaments, you want assemblies on the London model for Greater Manchester, Merseyside, "South & West Yorkshire", West Midlands & "Tees, Wear & Tyneside.

    A further English Assembly would have similar powers over all parts of England not part of Greater London or the "Metropolitan Counties" and would meet in Westminster Hall and comprise English MPs from non metroplitan county constituencies.

    All the assemblies should have at least the powers of the Welsh assembly with powers devolved from Westminster.

    I don't want too see England broken up into regions but it is time to stop the large cities and celtic fringes effectively ruling the rest of us.

    It is baffling to me why Greater Manchester is still without a mayoralty. Bashing the heads together of the ten or so council leaders up there to get anything done is always going to be a very labour intensive, inefficient way of running a city.
  • DavidL said:

    I heard David Cameron's speech as I returned very bedraggled from some pretty damp canvassing. It was excellent and said many of the things that I have in my own small way been seeking to say on here.

    This is a country that we should be rightly proud of. Scots should be proud of it too because they played more than their fair share in building it.

    It is an element that has been missing from the campaign. Being British is something to be proud of and something none of us should have to give up. I just hope this plea to and from the heart by the PM of our country has not come too late.

    We had the cameras with us tonight so the teams were more consolidated for TV purposes which made the GOTV aspect less productive than I would have liked but I got a few "undecideds" who were now voting no and none at all who had switched to Yes.

    Glad to hear about the undecideds switching to no. Have you had any people joining the campaign locally in the last week, after the yes poll scare?
  • KevinKevin Posts: 19
    Morris_Dancer, thanks.
    I favour extensive devolution within England so that much more power is brought much closer to the peoples of England than at present. A dysfunctional English Parliament is no more attractive than the current dysfunctional British one.
  • OK, so I'm getting Lab 33.07, Con 31.89, UKIP 14.57, LD 8.27 for Ashcroft when looking at his tables. Why does he say the headline figures are 33, 33, 14 and 9?

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ANP-Full-tables-140915.pdf

    I think those numbers are before the recall adjustment...
  • Wow - UKIP in single figures, Greens at 7%. Both good numbers for the Tories for different reasons.
    ICM are usually poor for UKIP. Their figures this year have been: 10, 11, 9, 11, 15, 16, 9, 10 and now 9 again. So apart from two big scores around the time of the Euro-elections, this current poll is very much in line with the rest (including those over the Summer).
  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114
    AllyM said:

    I see the new voters registering for Yes just a touch hard to believe in totality. From a basic, non aligned standpoint.

    Surely two things should be considered:

    1) 16 and 17 year olds registering en masse now that they can. Would've thought nearly all of them would sign up.
    2) It's a decision for everyone's future. Yes or no, surely everyone wants a say?

    No slight on anyone. I personally, just find it hard to believe that nearly every new voter is a Yes on the extreme I've seen to the majority signing on the more considered side to sign up for Yes.

    It may be the case that what I've just criticised becomes the case, and that's fine. Just from a logical standpoint, I can't see it because, it's a referendum on the future of a nation.

    Surely everyone, wants a say, whatever way they vote, No and Yes?

    I think about 10% of the population move house every year. The last time Electoral Roll was updated was last autumn, so at least some of the new registrations will be people updating their records and not wanting to miss out on this most important vote. It also means, I think, that a turnout rate above 90% is impossible because of people who no longer live there or have died. In which case an 80% turnout is effectively 90% - unless I have completely misunderstood the calculations - which is entirely possible
  • FPT: Good evening, everyone.

    Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/

    Well, we'll just have to disagree. The WLQ does need answering; on that, I think we can agree. And while I disagree with Ferguson's argument, which essentially comes down to that we shouldn't have an English parliament because the London media is lazy, I do think he's stumbled across something resembling the true problem.

    An separate English parliament would too closely resemble the UK one to be anything other than a rival and near-duplicate; an English parliament comprising only English MPs of the UK parliament would cause too many tensions within Westminster with differing mandates and the ridiculous position that a government could win votes of confidence and pass budgets to stay in office and raise money, but had policies imposed upon it by the 'opposition' as to how to spend that money.

    Westminster should have a single purpose: the Federal Parliament of the United Kingdom. Devolution, which must happen to rebalance the equation with Wales and N Ireland, never mind what happens in Scotland, should be to English regions. If there needs to be further discussion on where the borders should be, fine - but that doesn't change the central point.
    The WLQ can be answered without either an English Parliament or regionalisation. All it needs is an EVEL in the current Parliament. This should have been a priority for the Tories from the start of this Parliament but I suspect they would not have run with this because of the effect it might have had on the Independence vote.
  • 7% for the Greens! Must be a while since they were within 3% of third in any poll!
    Could the greens be starting to take votes off Labour as well as LibDems?
    Yes, I suspect that when we see the tables, that's something we will see.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited September 2014

    OK, so I'm getting Lab 33.07, Con 31.89, UKIP 14.57, LD 8.27 for Ashcroft when looking at his tables. Why does he say the headline figures are 33, 33, 14 and 9?

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ANP-Full-tables-140915.pdf

    I think those numbers are before the recall adjustment...
    Thanks, but does he not include the sample sizes in the table for headline percentages? I'd like to know the sample size (total) before plugging it into ELBOW.
  • Mr. Kevin, you're welcome..

    'Peoples' of England is quite wrong. We are one people.

    Mr. Tyndall, I'm unconvinced English votes on English laws would work. An improvement on what we have now, but not, I fear, sufficient. Would a Labour PM reliant on Scottish MPs order them to hold back and risk defeat after defeat? I find it incredible.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    Salmond currently on the ITV News lying through his teeth (again).

    "There is no denominational risk."

    That will come back to haunt you Alex, whatever the result.

    What do we think? Brain cauterised oaf or cynical liar?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...

    First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)

    They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)

    Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1

    BUT!!!!!

    They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!

    Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!

    Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO

    Labour fifty to one on??? Never

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party

    Yes, Wm Hill still go 20/1 against Costa to be Champs League top goal scorer, that's a great bet thanks and oddly generous given that Chelsea are a 7/1 shot to win. Each way 1-4 looks worthwhile imo.
    Corals are also offering the same odds if you can navigate their impossible website!
    Aren't Coral only 3 places? That's still a good bet but 1/4 1234 is Golden
    You're probably right - I couldn't actually find it on their site! Suarez at the same price looks quite tasty too, if you reckon that Barca will reach the final.
    My strategy is a player that dominates his team in terms of goal %, plays up front alone, takes pens and is absolute first choice

    I don't think Costa will take CFC pens (Hazard?) but other than that he fits the bill, and Chelsea seem to be scoring a lot of goals this year (small sample I know)

    Suarez is going to miss a couple of matches no? Also I don't think he will outscore Messi let alone players from other teams. Neymar is in the mix too..

    My outsider would be Jackson Martinez of Porto at 80s
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    FF42 said:

    AllyM said:

    I see the new voters registering for Yes just a touch hard to believe in totality. From a basic, non aligned standpoint.

    Surely two things should be considered:

    1) 16 and 17 year olds registering en masse now that they can. Would've thought nearly all of them would sign up.
    2) It's a decision for everyone's future. Yes or no, surely everyone wants a say?

    No slight on anyone. I personally, just find it hard to believe that nearly every new voter is a Yes on the extreme I've seen to the majority signing on the more considered side to sign up for Yes.

    It may be the case that what I've just criticised becomes the case, and that's fine. Just from a logical standpoint, I can't see it because, it's a referendum on the future of a nation.

    Surely everyone, wants a say, whatever way they vote, No and Yes?

    I think about 10% of the population move house every year. The last time Electoral Roll was updated was last autumn, so at least some of the new registrations will be people updating their records and not wanting to miss out on this most important vote. It also means, I think, that a turnout rate above 90% is impossible because of people who no longer live there or have died. In which case an 80% turnout is effectively 90% - unless I have completely misunderstood the calculations - which is entirely possible
    Interesting perspective and information, thanks.
  • isam said:

    7% for the Greens! Must be a while since they were within 3% of third in any poll!
    How many seats are they contesting? Must be immense value to win a couple if they are anywhere near 7%
    The Greens contested more seats in 2010 than they'd ever done before and it was still only about half the constituencies. But the 7% will be on the basis of candidates being available everywhere. In reality, if they had a similar number of candidates to last time, they'd do well to top 4%.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Watcher

    Only on PB could an increasing average Lab lead be interpreted as a decreasing Lab lead.

    Only on PB.

    Yes Reggie.
    You are accusing me of being another poster yet again, a obsessive habit of yours.

    Let me assure you: I have never posted as anyone called Reggie. Indeed, I have never even heard of such a poster.

    Now keep your weird wild fantasies to yourself.
    Just be a good scout and list your alternate logins, it would save a lot of tedium for you and more importantly us.
  • There is the very effective Greater Manchester Combined Authority in (Greater) Manchester, a follow on from AGMA.

    Reality is it not democratic enough but they have been crying out for the devolution of powers for ages and ages, presumably this may soon be forthcoming along with increased democracy over how the Greater Manc Combined Authority is operated.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    SeanT said:

    Good speech by Cameron. But why oh why did he leave it so late?

    Rather leave it to now than way too early.

    I guess anyway.
    This is the general way that election campaigns are focussed. And of course this campaign is not being run by Cameron or the tories.

    Hugh said:

    That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.

    Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.

    Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.

    I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.

    He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.

    Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.

    Hugh said:

    That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.

    Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.

    Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.

    I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.

    He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.

    Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.
    Correct. cameron has not presaided over anything. Those 'No' posters are clearly painted red and yellow. Labour created devolution Labour mismanaged and lost Scot, and Labour are running the No campaign
    Caveat: some No stuff is royal blue and white - Tory?
    Some of it's purple. Will Farage be walking the plank too?
    In a Dundee Multi last week I found myself in the strange role of a translator for an Edinburgh student who is helping us.

    We were confronted on the stairs by a large man wearing what appeared to be boxers.

    "You've been littering" he hollered waving one of our leaflets, in a belligerent manner.

    "Oh, I am sorry, did we drop one?" my hapless colleague replied.

    "He means we put it through his letter box and he doesn't want it," I explained.

    "At least it is the right colour for you lot," was the next riposte.

    My colleague was completely confused by this one.

    "He means that it is purple and we are like UKIP, " I explained.

    At which point Mr Angry was persuaded to return the offending leaflet which was of course then recycled to what was hopefully a more grateful recipient.

    It's life Jim but not as we know it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    FF42 said:

    AllyM said:

    I see the new voters registering for Yes just a touch hard to believe in totality. From a basic, non aligned standpoint.

    Surely two things should be considered:

    1) 16 and 17 year olds registering en masse now that they can. Would've thought nearly all of them would sign up.
    2) It's a decision for everyone's future. Yes or no, surely everyone wants a say?

    No slight on anyone. I personally, just find it hard to believe that nearly every new voter is a Yes on the extreme I've seen to the majority signing on the more considered side to sign up for Yes.

    It may be the case that what I've just criticised becomes the case, and that's fine. Just from a logical standpoint, I can't see it because, it's a referendum on the future of a nation.

    Surely everyone, wants a say, whatever way they vote, No and Yes?

    I think about 10% of the population move house every year. The last time Electoral Roll was updated was last autumn, so at least some of the new registrations will be people updating their records and not wanting to miss out on this most important vote. It also means, I think, that a turnout rate above 90% is impossible because of people who no longer live there or have died. In which case an 80% turnout is effectively 90% - unless I have completely misunderstood the calculations - which is entirely possible
    Have you considered the point that some of those 'new' voters are adults who dropped off the roll over the years through neglecting to register (e.g. after moves)? The classic example is the voter in a seat which is solid Labour (or has been) but with miserable turnout. The lefties and Greens in Yes have been encouraging such registrations, and so too the No campaign.

    One argument - so it runs - is that part of this registration is due to disenchantment with the current setup, so if they have registered they are more likely to vote for change than bother confirming the status quo. On the other hand, the opposite could be argued, now that we are in a vote where everyone's vote counts and would make a difference. But we will see who is right come Friday.

  • Mr. Kevin, you're welcome..

    'Peoples' of England is quite wrong. We are one people.

    Mr. Tyndall, I'm unconvinced English votes on English laws would work. An improvement on what we have now, but not, I fear, sufficient. Would a Labour PM reliant on Scottish MPs order them to hold back and risk defeat after defeat? I find it incredible.

    There must also be some areas of policy where London MPs vote on laws that do not affect London, it also being devolved?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    saddened said:

    Watcher

    Only on PB could an increasing average Lab lead be interpreted as a decreasing Lab lead.

    Only on PB.

    Yes Reggie.
    You are accusing me of being another poster yet again, a obsessive habit of yours.

    Let me assure you: I have never posted as anyone called Reggie. Indeed, I have never even heard of such a poster.

    Now keep your weird wild fantasies to yourself.
    Just be a good scout and list your alternate logins, it would save a lot of tedium for you and more importantly us.
    Reminds me of "I'M A LAAADY!!!" off Little Britain! The cross dressing attention seeker who denies it all when challenged!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    I heard David Cameron's speech as I returned very bedraggled from some pretty damp canvassing. It was excellent and said many of the things that I have in my own small way been seeking to say on here.

    This is a country that we should be rightly proud of. Scots should be proud of it too because they played more than their fair share in building it.

    It is an element that has been missing from the campaign. Being British is something to be proud of and something none of us should have to give up. I just hope this plea to and from the heart by the PM of our country has not come too late.

    We had the cameras with us tonight so the teams were more consolidated for TV purposes which made the GOTV aspect less productive than I would have liked but I got a few "undecideds" who were now voting no and none at all who had switched to Yes.

    Glad to hear about the undecideds switching to no. Have you had any people joining the campaign locally in the last week, after the yes poll scare?
    Yes quite a number. Even the Labour MP from Dundee West turned up today. Nothing to do with the cameras of course
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    SeanT said:

    Good speech by Cameron. But why oh why did he leave it so late?

    Rather leave it to now than way too early.

    I guess anyway.
    This is the general way that election campaigns are focussed. And of course this campaign is not being run by Cameron or the tories.

    Hugh said:

    That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.

    Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.

    Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.

    I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.

    He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.

    Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.

    Hugh said:

    That was an excellent speech by David Cameron.

    Though this panicked scrabbling round trying to offer some vague DevoMore option is desperate and pathetic.

    Cameron completely screwed up with all this, and it could well lead to the break up of the nation he is Prime Minister of.

    I'm more convinced than ever that Cameron will resign if it's Yes.

    He'll be polite and let Miliband go first.

    Ed's been utterly useless in Labour's heartlands FFS.
    Correct. cameron has not presaided over anything. Those 'No' posters are clearly painted red and yellow. Labour created devolution Labour mismanaged and lost Scot, and Labour are running the No campaign
    Caveat: some No stuff is royal blue and white - Tory?
    Some of it's purple. Will Farage be walking the plank too?
    In a Dundee Multi last week I found myself in the strange role of a translator for an Edinburgh student who is helping us.

    We were confronted on the stairs by a large man wearing what appeared to be boxers.

    "You've been littering" he hollered waving one of our leaflets, in a belligerent manner.

    "Oh, I am sorry, did we drop one?" my hapless colleague replied.

    "He means we put it through his letter box and he doesn't want it," I explained.

    "At least it is the right colour for you lot," was the next riposte.

    My colleague was completely confused by this one.

    "He means that it is purple and we are like UKIP, " I explained.

    At which point Mr Angry was persuaded to return the offending leaflet which was of course then recycled to what was hopefully a more grateful recipient.

    It's life Jim but not as we know it.
    I shouldn't laugh.

    But I did.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Guardian Scotland ‏@GdnScotland now
    Exclusive: @ICMResearch @guardian polls shows @UKLabour #Westminster support dips 3pts to 35%; Tories up 2 to 33% http://gu.com/p/4xtaf/tw
  • Bluffing, huh?

    Independent Scotland should not use pound, say 63% of English and Welsh
    Guardian/ICM poll finds popular support for Westminster parties' refusal to allow currency union in event of yes vote


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters?CMP=twt_gu
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,592
    edited September 2014
    Carnyx said:

    FF42 said:

    AllyM said:

    I see the new voters registering for Yes just a touch hard to believe in totality. From a basic, non aligned standpoint.

    Surely two things should be considered:

    1) 16 and 17 year olds registering en masse now that they can. Would've thought nearly all of them would sign up.
    2) It's a decision for everyone's future. Yes or no, surely everyone wants a say?

    No slight on anyone. I personally, just find it hard to believe that nearly every new voter is a Yes on the extreme I've seen to the majority signing on the more considered side to sign up for Yes.

    It may be the case that what I've just criticised becomes the case, and that's fine. Just from a logical standpoint, I can't see it because, it's a referendum on the future of a nation.

    Surely everyone, wants a say, whatever way they vote, No and Yes?

    I think about 10% of the population move house every year. The last time Electoral Roll was updated was last autumn, so at least some of the new registrations will be people updating their records and not wanting to miss out on this most important vote. It also means, I think, that a turnout rate above 90% is impossible because of people who no longer live there or have died. In which case an 80% turnout is effectively 90% - unless I have completely misunderstood the calculations - which is entirely possible
    Have you considered the point that some of those 'new' voters are adults who dropped off the roll over the years through neglecting to register (e.g. after moves)? The classic example is the voter in a seat which is solid Labour (or has been) but with miserable turnout. The lefties and Greens in Yes have been encouraging such registrations, and so too the No campaign.

    One argument - so it runs - is that part of this registration is due to disenchantment with the current setup, so if they have registered they are more likely to vote for change than bother confirming the status quo. On the other hand, the opposite could be argued, now that we are in a vote where everyone's vote counts and would make a difference. But we will see who is right come Friday.

    So, with all these extra registered voters, Scotland may gain MPs in the next round of boundary changes? (assuming a No vote)

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG
  • Indeed, unlike the rest of the country London has regulated buses and a local transport authority with additional powers relative to other places in England.

    Should London MPs duck out of Westminster debates on transport in the regions of England?

    Mr. Kevin, you're welcome..

    'Peoples' of England is quite wrong. We are one people.

    Mr. Tyndall, I'm unconvinced English votes on English laws would work. An improvement on what we have now, but not, I fear, sufficient. Would a Labour PM reliant on Scottish MPs order them to hold back and risk defeat after defeat? I find it incredible.

    There must also be some areas of policy where London MPs vote on laws that do not affect London, it also being devolved?
  • jam2809 said:

    Yes 4.3
    No 1.29

    The odds on YES have been gradually coming in all day...
    Yepp. Cos the day of reckoning is fast approaching.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...

    First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)

    They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)

    Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1

    BUT!!!!!

    They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!

    Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!

    Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO

    Labour fifty to one on??? Never

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party

    Yes, Wm Hill still go 20/1 against Costa to be Champs League top goal scorer, that's a great bet thanks and oddly generous given that Chelsea are a 7/1 shot to win. Each way 1-4 looks worthwhile imo.
    Corals are also offering the same odds if you can navigate their impossible website!
    Aren't Coral only 3 places? That's still a good bet but 1/4 1234 is Golden
    You're probably right - I couldn't actually find it on their site! Suarez at the same price looks quite tasty too, if you reckon that Barca will reach the final.
    My strategy is a player that dominates his team in terms of goal %, plays up front alone, takes pens and is absolute first choice

    I don't think Costa will take CFC pens (Hazard?) but other than that he fits the bill, and Chelsea seem to be scoring a lot of goals this year (small sample I know)

    Suarez is going to miss a couple of matches no? Also I don't think he will outscore Messi let alone players from other teams. Neymar is in the mix too..

    My outsider would be Jackson Martinez of Porto at 80s
    Yes Suarez will miss two games (hence the need for Barca to reach the final which they probably will), but consider how many he scored for Liverpool last season despite his lengthy suspension and if he isn't an automatic pick to play, then I'm not sure why Barca paid £80M for him!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Guardian Scotland ‏@GdnScotland now
    Exclusive: @ICMResearch @guardian polls shows @UKLabour #Westminster support dips 3pts to 35%; Tories up 2 to 33% http://gu.com/p/4xtaf/tw

    Is that increasing average Lab lead that Bobajob was going on about?
  • fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Guardian Scotland ‏@GdnScotland now
    Exclusive: @ICMResearch @guardian polls shows @UKLabour #Westminster support dips 3pts to 35%; Tories up 2 to 33% http://gu.com/p/4xtaf/tw

    Is that increasing average Lab lead that Bobajob was going on about?
    Do you want to look up the word average and come back to me?


    Sunil has already showed you the average leads in the past few weeks...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Thanks Rod, this is very useful. Just to clarify - Is that the suggested declaration order from left to right? What source?

    cheers.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I heard David Cameron's speech as I returned very bedraggled from some pretty damp canvassing. It was excellent and said many of the things that I have in my own small way been seeking to say on here.

    This is a country that we should be rightly proud of. Scots should be proud of it too because they played more than their fair share in building it.

    It is an element that has been missing from the campaign. Being British is something to be proud of and something none of us should have to give up. I just hope this plea to and from the heart by the PM of our country has not come too late.

    We had the cameras with us tonight so the teams were more consolidated for TV purposes which made the GOTV aspect less productive than I would have liked but I got a few "undecideds" who were now voting no and none at all who had switched to Yes.

    Glad to hear about the undecideds switching to no. Have you had any people joining the campaign locally in the last week, after the yes poll scare?
    Yes quite a number. Even the Labour MP from Dundee West turned up today. Nothing to do with the cameras of course
    Sums up SLab MPs nicely.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I asked who had a Hills account on the last thread...

    First reason was they were 20/1 Diego Costa to be top Champs League goalscorer (1/4 1234)

    They let me have a tenner each way at the weird place terms of (1/2 123)

    Anyway I think theyre 16/1 now but still a decent bet. I think it's massive if anyone can still get 20/1

    BUT!!!!!

    They are 10/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton!!!!!

    Seeing as I already backed this at 5/2 with @Quincel (Grrrr...) I have obviously had to steam in!!!

    Cant believe UKIP only have a 9% chance there in a by election, massive rick IMO

    Labour fifty to one on??? Never

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/haywood-and-middleton-by-election/winning-party

    Yes, Wm Hill still go 20/1 against Costa to be Champs League top goal scorer, that's a great bet thanks and oddly generous given that Chelsea are a 7/1 shot to win. Each way 1-4 looks worthwhile imo.
    Corals are also offering the same odds if you can navigate their impossible website!
    Aren't Coral only 3 places? That's still a good bet but 1/4 1234 is Golden
    You're probably right - I couldn't actually find it on their site! Suarez at the same price looks quite tasty too, if you reckon that Barca will reach the final.
    My strategy is a player that dominates his team in terms of goal %, plays up front alone, takes pens and is absolute first choice

    I don't think Costa will take CFC pens (Hazard?) but other than that he fits the bill, and Chelsea seem to be scoring a lot of goals this year (small sample I know)

    Suarez is going to miss a couple of matches no? Also I don't think he will outscore Messi let alone players from other teams. Neymar is in the mix too..

    My outsider would be Jackson Martinez of Porto at 80s
    Yes Suarez will miss two games (hence the need for Barca to reach the final which they probably will), but consider how many he scored for Liverpool last season despite his lengthy suspension and if he isn't an automatic pick to play, then I'm not sure why Barca paid £80M for him!
    I think the bet for you is "Barcelona to reach the final"!!! 3/1 with bwin
  • Indeed, unlike the rest of the country London has regulated buses and a local transport authority with additional powers relative to other places in England.

    Should London MPs duck out of Westminster debates on transport in the regions of England?

    Mr. Kevin, you're welcome..

    'Peoples' of England is quite wrong. We are one people.

    Mr. Tyndall, I'm unconvinced English votes on English laws would work. An improvement on what we have now, but not, I fear, sufficient. Would a Labour PM reliant on Scottish MPs order them to hold back and risk defeat after defeat? I find it incredible.

    There must also be some areas of policy where London MPs vote on laws that do not affect London, it also being devolved?
    That's a great example. Presumably the free bus passes vote was voted on by London MPs, when London's pensioners already got free bus travel?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    FF42 said:

    AllyM said:

    I see the new voters registering for Yes just a touch hard to believe in totality. From a basic, non aligned standpoint.

    Surely two things should be considered:

    1) 16 and 17 year olds registering en masse now that they can. Would've thought nearly all of them would sign up.
    2) It's a decision for everyone's future. Yes or no, surely everyone wants a say?

    No slight on anyone. I personally, just find it hard to believe that nearly every new voter is a Yes on the extreme I've seen to the majority signing on the more considered side to sign up for Yes.

    It may be the case that what I've just criticised becomes the case, and that's fine. Just from a logical standpoint, I can't see it because, it's a referendum on the future of a nation.

    Surely everyone, wants a say, whatever way they vote, No and Yes?

    I think about 10% of the population move house every year. The last time Electoral Roll was updated was last autumn, so at least some of the new registrations will be people updating their records and not wanting to miss out on this most important vote. It also means, I think, that a turnout rate above 90% is impossible because of people who no longer live there or have died. In which case an 80% turnout is effectively 90% - unless I have completely misunderstood the calculations - which is entirely possible
    Have you considered the point that some of those 'new' voters are adults who dropped off the roll over the years through neglecting to register (e.g. after moves)? The classic example is the voter in a seat which is solid Labour (or has been) but with miserable turnout. The lefties and Greens in Yes have been encouraging such registrations, and so too the No campaign.

    One argument - so it runs - is that part of this registration is due to disenchantment with the current setup, so if they have registered they are more likely to vote for change than bother confirming the status quo. On the other hand, the opposite could be argued, now that we are in a vote where everyone's vote counts and would make a difference. But we will see who is right come Friday.

    So, with all these extra registered voters, Scotland may gain MPs in the next round of boundary changes? (assuming a No vote)

    It's not as if they had more than 100%, I suppose - but 97% is very high. One does wonder about the census. And IIRC the average constituency population is rather higher than England, so it's hard to argue against a rseduction (except for the special case of the 2/3 Islands constituencies).

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Guardian Scotland ‏@GdnScotland now
    Exclusive: @ICMResearch @guardian polls shows @UKLabour #Westminster support dips 3pts to 35%; Tories up 2 to 33% http://gu.com/p/4xtaf/tw

    Is that increasing average Lab lead that Bobajob was going on about?
    Do you want to look up the word average and come back to me?

    Why not simply answer the question Reggie.
  • FPT: Good evening, everyone.

    Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/

    Well, we'll just have to disagree. The WLQ does need answering; on that, I think we can agree. And while I disagree with Ferguson's argument, which essentially comes down to that we shouldn't have an English parliament because the London media is lazy, I do think he's stumbled across something resembling the true problem.

    An separate English parliament would too closely resemble the UK one to be anything other than a rival and near-duplicate; an English parliament comprising only English MPs of the UK parliament would cause too many tensions within Westminster with differing mandates and the ridiculous position that a government could win votes of confidence and pass budgets to stay in office and raise money, but had policies imposed upon it by the 'opposition' as to how to spend that money.

    Westminster should have a single purpose: the Federal Parliament of the United Kingdom. Devolution, which must happen to rebalance the equation with Wales and N Ireland, never mind what happens in Scotland, should be to English regions. If there needs to be further discussion on where the borders should be, fine - but that doesn't change the central point.
    The WLQ can be answered without either an English Parliament or regionalisation. All it needs is an EVEL in the current Parliament. This should have been a priority for the Tories from the start of this Parliament but I suspect they would not have run with this because of the effect it might have had on the Independence vote.
    I dislike EVEL as a solution as you could easily have a situation where Labour ministers head all the departments but are incapable of getting any legislation through because while they have a majority at UK level, on which a vote of confidence is based, they have none in England. I don't think it would be a tenable situation.

    Let Westminster deal with defence, the economy, foreign affairs, and matters of genuine UK-wide concern, and devolve the rest.
  • RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Can't see the labels. Which is dark blue?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    Hmmm. English Parliament.

    Put it in Manchester (Granada TV set?), Leeds, Liverpool, Sheffield or Newcastle, for two days a week.

    Same MPs. Let them get there on an HS2 built more rapidly. Time it so they only need one overnight.

    That will, I hope, distance it from London, and put the OMIGOD WHATABOUT MY HOUSE IN THE CHILTERNS Nimbys back in their place.

    2 days will, I hope, limit the meaningless rabbitting on / abuse that is the basic tune of Holyrood for the last few years.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    My brother is at the Unity Rally in Trafalgar Square and sent me some pictures.

    Amazing scenes.

    What difference it will make is probably slim to nigh none but, it's something else to see.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF42 said:

    AllyM said:

    I see the new voters registering for Yes just a touch hard to believe in totality. From a basic, non aligned standpoint.

    Surely two things should be considered:

    1) 16 and 17 year olds registering en masse now that they can. Would've thought nearly all of them would sign up.
    2) It's a decision for everyone's future. Yes or no, surely everyone wants a say?

    No slight on anyone. I personally, just find it hard to believe that nearly every new voter is a Yes on the extreme I've seen to the majority signing on the more considered side to sign up for Yes.

    It may be the case that what I've just criticised becomes the case, and that's fine. Just from a logical standpoint, I can't see it because, it's a referendum on the future of a nation.

    Surely everyone, wants a say, whatever way they vote, No and Yes?

    I think about 10% of the population move house every year. The last time Electoral Roll was updated was last autumn, so at least some of the new registrations will be people updating their records and not wanting to miss out on this most important vote. It also means, I think, that a turnout rate above 90% is impossible because of people who no longer live there or have died. In which case an 80% turnout is effectively 90% - unless I have completely misunderstood the calculations - which is entirely possible
    Have you considered the point that some of those 'new' voters are adults who dropped off the roll over the years through neglecting to register (e.g. after moves)? The classic example is the voter in a seat which is solid Labour (or has been) but with miserable turnout. The lefties and Greens in Yes have been encouraging such registrations, and so too the No campaign.

    One argument - so it runs - is that part of this registration is due to disenchantment with the current setup, so if they have registered they are more likely to vote for change than bother confirming the status quo. On the other hand, the opposite could be argued, now that we are in a vote where everyone's vote counts and would make a difference. But we will see who is right come Friday.

    So, with all these extra registered voters, Scotland may gain MPs in the next round of boundary changes? (assuming a No vote)

    And IIRC the average constituency population is rather higher than England
    You dont remember correctly.
  • DavidL said:

    I heard David Cameron's speech as I returned very bedraggled from some pretty damp canvassing. It was excellent and said many of the things that I have in my own small way been seeking to say on here.

    This is a country that we should be rightly proud of. Scots should be proud of it too because they played more than their fair share in building it.

    It is an element that has been missing from the campaign. Being British is something to be proud of and something none of us should have to give up. I just hope this plea to and from the heart by the PM of our country has not come too late.

    Well said David - I've yet to hear Cameron's speech, but the one major theme missing from the Better-Together campaign imho, has been why exactly, being together would be better.

    We've had 300 years of shared history to be proud of, but I've heard very little mention of it from those running things north of the border - glad to hear Cameron has gone some way to rectifying that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Not sure I am following that. Glasgow City is polling no (slightly to my surprise) and Aberdeen City will poll no (although Aberdeenshire ex the city is one of yes's strongest areas).
  • @Isam

    I have no idea why you are so obsessed about it frankly. It seems to be yourself, Watcher and Saddened who go on about it endlessly. Hugh is Tim, I am Reggie, who cares? Write about something else.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited September 2014
    Pong said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Thanks Rod, this is very useful. Just to clarify - Is that the suggested declaration order from left to right? What source?

    cheers.
    Yes, left to right.

    The source has been posted a few times.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxVAehFCUAALnvR.jpg


    twitter.com/cllrdmeikle/status/510385027721736192/photo/1
  • Indeed the London MPs did have a vote on this.

    However, this type of democratic deficit is ignored by the London centric media and political elite.

    When such issues favour London and the south they are ignored, when they favour the regions all hell breaks loose.

    Indeed, unlike the rest of the country London has regulated buses and a local transport authority with additional powers relative to other places in England.

    Should London MPs duck out of Westminster debates on transport in the regions of England?

    Mr. Kevin, you're welcome..

    'Peoples' of England is quite wrong. We are one people.

    Mr. Tyndall, I'm unconvinced English votes on English laws would work. An improvement on what we have now, but not, I fear, sufficient. Would a Labour PM reliant on Scottish MPs order them to hold back and risk defeat after defeat? I find it incredible.

    There must also be some areas of policy where London MPs vote on laws that do not affect London, it also being devolved?
    That's a great example. Presumably the free bus passes vote was voted on by London MPs, when London's pensioners already got free bus travel?
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    DavidL said:

    I heard David Cameron's speech as I returned very bedraggled from some pretty damp canvassing. It was excellent and said many of the things that I have in my own small way been seeking to say on here.

    This is a country that we should be rightly proud of. Scots should be proud of it too because they played more than their fair share in building it.

    It is an element that has been missing from the campaign. Being British is something to be proud of and something none of us should have to give up. I just hope this plea to and from the heart by the PM of our country has not come too late.

    Well said David - I've yet to hear Cameron's speech, but the one major theme missing from the Better-Together campaign imho, has been why exactly, being together would be better.

    We've had 300 years of shared history to be proud of, but I've heard very little mention of it from those running things north of the border - glad to hear Cameron has gone some way to rectifying that.
    Speech was an absolute belter.
  • @ManchesterKurt

    The GMCA could do the job of the London Assembly, then have a mayor. More democratic accountability and devolved powers...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Thursday:

    BBC1: 10:35pm-6am, Scotland Decides with Huw Edwards

    ITV: 10:40m-6am, Scotland Decides with Alastair Stewart
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890
    Or, I suppose we could follow the FRG model and put it somewhere like - say - Shrewsbury :-).
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    RodCrosby said:

    Pong said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Thanks Rod, this is very useful. Just to clarify - Is that the suggested declaration order from left to right? What source?

    cheers.
    Yes, left to right.

    The source has been posted a few times.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxVAehFCUAALnvR.jpg


    twitter.com/cllrdmeikle/status/510385027721736192/photo/1
    Did they take my wife's hometown of Larkhall, S Lanakashire into account?!

    That's a good 20,000 from the town itself plus the surrounding areas which are beyond staunchly Unionist.

    Though with over 300,000 in the region, my remark is relatively light of heart.
  • Mr. Kevin, you're welcome..

    'Peoples' of England is quite wrong. We are one people.

    Mr. Tyndall, I'm unconvinced English votes on English laws would work. An improvement on what we have now, but not, I fear, sufficient. Would a Labour PM reliant on Scottish MPs order them to hold back and risk defeat after defeat? I find it incredible.

    It would not be a choice. For it to work it would need a law that proscribed MPs from Scottish seats voting on any laws or issues that were devolved to Holyrood.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Can't see the labels. Which is dark blue?
    YES is dark blue.

    NB, this is a possible running total lead after each declaration, for YES to win by the narrowest of margins.

    We see that YES should roar into the lead in the early declarations, but then gradually weaken so that NO build an even bigger lead, only for it all to be upset by Glasgow near the end.

    Not a prediction, nor a prediction of the declaration order, but I expect the post-mortem graph on Friday to have many similarities to mine, whatever the result...
  • KevinKevin Posts: 19
    MattW said:

    Or, I suppose we could follow the FRG model and put it somewhere like - say - Shrewsbury :-).

    Ludlow. The restaurants are better.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Can anyone direct me to a video of Cameron's speech in full from today? Much obliged.
  • RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Can't see the labels. Which is dark blue?
    YES is dark blue.

    NB, this is a possible running total lead after each declaration, for YES to win by the narrowest of margins.

    We see that YES should roar into the lead in the early declarations, but then gradually weaken so that NO build an even bigger lead, only for it all to be upset by Glasgow near the end.

    Not a prediction, nor a prediction of the declaration order, but I expect the post-mortem graph on Friday to have many similarities to mine, whatever the result...
    Great stuff Rod and a very possible betting opportunity opens up if the declaration order is anything like you are suggesting, giving as you say the YES vote a substantial early lead and therefore quite possibly unduly swaying the betting odds that way ..... hmm interesting!
  • tessyCtessyC Posts: 106
    New settlement for devolution should seek to reduce the number of politicians. Devolved Parliaments and Assemblies should be staffed by UK MPs. Why do we need to elect different politicians to do the same thing. Scottish MPs must have very little to do in the Commons, on days that there are no UK issues MPs should decide on local issues. A proportionally elected Lords could do the same, then there enough members of devolved legislatures to provide scrutiny.

    Personally I think we should look at the system from scratch. For example, I think there should be a UK wide exams system independently run so we can truly compare which country has the best education system. There could be other areas that are already devolved, that may need a UK wide oversight to make sure we all get the services we pay for.
  • FPT: Good evening, everyone.

    Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/

    Well, we'll just have to disagree. The WLQ does need answering; on that, I think we can agree. And while I disagree with Ferguson's argument, which essentially comes down to that we shouldn't have an English parliament because the London media is lazy, I do think he's stumbled across something resembling the true problem.

    An separate English parliament would too closely resemble the UK one to be anything other than a rival and near-duplicate; an English parliament comprising only English MPs of the UK parliament would cause too many tensions within Westminster with differing mandates and the ridiculous position that a government could win votes of confidence and pass budgets to stay in office and raise money, but had policies imposed upon it by the 'opposition' as to how to spend that money.

    Westminster should have a single purpose: the Federal Parliament of the United Kingdom. Devolution, which must happen to rebalance the equation with Wales and N Ireland, never mind what happens in Scotland, should be to English regions. If there needs to be further discussion on where the borders should be, fine - but that doesn't change the central point.
    The WLQ can be answered without either an English Parliament or regionalisation. All it needs is an EVEL in the current Parliament. This should have been a priority for the Tories from the start of this Parliament but I suspect they would not have run with this because of the effect it might have had on the Independence vote.
    I dislike EVEL as a solution as you could easily have a situation where Labour ministers head all the departments but are incapable of getting any legislation through because while they have a majority at UK level, on which a vote of confidence is based, they have none in England. I don't think it would be a tenable situation.

    Let Westminster deal with defence, the economy, foreign affairs, and matters of genuine UK-wide concern, and devolve the rest.
    Sorry but for me the Balkanisation of England would be the very worst thing we could do. Adding yet another useless tier of government is a ludicrous idea, as is the idea that we should do so just to deal with the Scottish problem when there are much simpler and more constructive ways to do this.
  • Bluffing, huh?

    Independent Scotland should not use pound, say 63% of English and Welsh
    Guardian/ICM poll finds popular support for Westminster parties' refusal to allow currency union in event of yes vote


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters?CMP=twt_gu

    .....Which of course means the English and Welsh are much surer there shouldn't be a currency union than the Scots are on whether they should separate.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Of the £8.5 million matched on Betfair the majority of it (almost £5m) has been matched on No at odds of less than what you can currently get.

    Someone has a very, very, very green book.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Guardian Scotland ‏@GdnScotland now
    Exclusive: @ICMResearch @guardian polls shows @UKLabour #Westminster support dips 3pts to 35%; Tories up 2 to 33% http://gu.com/p/4xtaf/tw

    After a terrible week for Con last week with YouGov (average Lab lead 4.8), Ashcroft (7) and Opinium (8), today is much more encouraging - ICM (2), Populus (1) and Ashcroft (0).
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    A line from Cameron's speech was that old nugget; currency. Made it clear we will NOT get the pound.

    Some will still say bluffing, Tory Toff and whatever else but the fact remains, he sure as sh*t ain't bluffing.
  • I do not understand where the notion that if Scotland democratically votes Yes that Cameron ought to resign comes from. This is the result of years of build up and more due to devolution than anything else. Furthermore there is precedent for the UK breaking up, David Lloyd George agreed to let the Irish Free State go independent and he stayed in power until his coalition broke up over a year later.
  • KevinKevin Posts: 19



    Sorry but for me the Balkanisation of England

    But it isn't close to Balkanisation.

    It's giving large amounts of power to the constituent parts of England so that they can do something more useful with it than Westminster does. On the whole the people of Manchester have a much better idea of what is good for Manchester than the people of Kent have.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    There used to by a moderator ruling asking us not to engage in tedious guessing games about which anonymous poster is really another anonymous poster. Could we have it back? Who cares if Fred is really George? It's one of those in-group things that puts off new posters.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Populus : L 35 C 34
    ICM (Guardian): L 35 C 33
    YG (The Sun/S Times) : L 35 C 32
    Ipsos Mori (Standard) : L 33 C 34
    Comres (IOS/S Mirror) : L 34 C 32
    Comres (Independent) : L 35 C 28
    Survation (Sunday Mail): L 35 C 31
    Lord Ashcroft: L 33 C 33
    Opinium (Observer): L 37 C 29

    The two that give the worst Tory scores were two of the most adrift when calling their Euro vote correctly - 3.9 and 2.9 points out respectively.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @NickPalmer
    You are right of course Brian.
  • Kevin said:



    Sorry but for me the Balkanisation of England

    But it isn't close to Balkanisation.

    It's giving large amounts of power to the constituent parts of England so that they can do something more useful with it than Westminster does. On the whole the people of Manchester have a much better idea of what is good for Manchester than the people of Kent have.
    @Richard Tyndall

    We already have devolved government in England - in London. It works very well. Why not a similar system in Manchester?
  • Does anyone know how one can access Cameron's entire speech, which unfortunately I missed earlier, online?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Generally been a good day for Team Blue with today's polling results.

    #MegaPollingMonday
  • There used to by a moderator ruling asking us not to engage in tedious guessing games about which anonymous poster is really another anonymous poster. Could we have it back? Who cares if Fred is really George? It's one of those in-group things that puts off new posters.

    Well said Geoff ;-)
  • MikeL said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Guardian Scotland ‏@GdnScotland now
    Exclusive: @ICMResearch @guardian polls shows @UKLabour #Westminster support dips 3pts to 35%; Tories up 2 to 33% http://gu.com/p/4xtaf/tw

    After a terrible week for Con last week with YouGov (average Lab lead 4.8), Ashcroft (7) and Opinium (8), today is much more encouraging - ICM (2), Populus (1) and Ashcroft (0).
    I was only thinking that myself .... quite a turnaround in a few days. YouGov still to come later this evening.
  • RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Can't see the labels. Which is dark blue?
    YES is dark blue.

    NB, this is a possible running total lead after each declaration, for YES to win by the narrowest of margins.

    We see that YES should roar into the lead in the early declarations, but then gradually weaken so that NO build an even bigger lead, only for it all to be upset by Glasgow near the end.

    Not a prediction, nor a prediction of the declaration order, but I expect the post-mortem graph on Friday to have many similarities to mine, whatever the result...
    So, the Highlands and Islands go 'yes'? Weekend poll I saw seemed to show them definitely in 'No' camp, which I found odd.
  • Does anyone know how one can access Cameron's entire speech, which unfortunately I missed earlier, online?

    The Telegraph has the transcript:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11081025/Scottish-independence-campaign-live.html

    (and may have video - I'm on a glacial wifi connection...)
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Bluffing, huh?

    Independent Scotland should not use pound, say 63% of English and Welsh
    Guardian/ICM poll finds popular support for Westminster parties' refusal to allow currency union in event of yes vote


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/15/independent-scotland-not-use-pound-english-welsh-voters?CMP=twt_gu

    .....Which of course means the English and Welsh are much surer there shouldn't be a currency union than the Scots are on whether they should separate.
    It's almost as if it's the sovereign will of the people of the rUK.
  • There used to by a moderator ruling asking us not to engage in tedious guessing games about which anonymous poster is really another anonymous poster. Could we have it back? Who cares if Fred is really George? It's one of those in-group things that puts off new posters.

    I am Spartacus.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    MikeL said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Guardian Scotland ‏@GdnScotland now
    Exclusive: @ICMResearch @guardian polls shows @UKLabour #Westminster support dips 3pts to 35%; Tories up 2 to 33% http://gu.com/p/4xtaf/tw

    After a terrible week for Con last week with YouGov (average Lab lead 4.8), Ashcroft (7) and Opinium (8), today is much more encouraging - ICM (2), Populus (1) and Ashcroft (0).
    I was only thinking that myself .... quite a turnaround in a few days. YouGov still to come later this evening.
    Nothing much has happened in the last few days to justify a change - other than maybe Cameron visibility re Scotland.

    So I don't think Con supporters should get their hopes up too much - a lot of the changes are probably just random variation. But at the same time it's mildly encouraging.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Does anyone know how one can access Cameron's entire speech, which unfortunately I missed earlier, online?

    There's 12 minutes of it here www.youtube.com/watch?v=6E3LN_-JXPM
  • FPT: Good evening, everyone.

    Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/

    Well, we'll just have to disagree. The WLQ does need answering; on that, I think we can agree. And while I disagree with Ferguson's argument, which essentially comes down to that we shouldn't have an English parliament because the London media is lazy, I do think he's stumbled across something resembling the true problem.

    An separate English parliament would too closely resemble the UK one to be anything other than a rival and near-duplicate; an English parliament comprising only English MPs of the UK parliament would cause too many tensions within Westminster with differing mandates and the ridiculous position that a government could win votes of confidence and pass budgets to stay in office and raise money, but had policies imposed upon it by the 'opposition' as to how to spend that money.

    Westminster should have a single purpose: the Federal Parliament of the United Kingdom. Devolution, which must happen to rebalance the equation with Wales and N Ireland, never mind what happens in Scotland, should be to English regions. If there needs to be further discussion on where the borders should be, fine - but that doesn't change the central point.
    The WLQ can be answered without either an English Parliament or regionalisation. All it needs is an EVEL in the current Parliament. This should have been a priority for the Tories from the start of this Parliament but I suspect they would not have run with this because of the effect it might have had on the Independence vote.
    I dislike EVEL as a solution as you could easily have a situation where Labour ministers head all the departments but are incapable of getting any legislation through because while they have a majority at UK level, on which a vote of confidence is based, they have none in England. I don't think it would be a tenable situation.

    Let Westminster deal with defence, the economy, foreign affairs, and matters of genuine UK-wide concern, and devolve the rest.
    If Labour lack a majority in England why should they be able to pass English only legislation and why should they head English only departments?

    The PM is a Tory but the head of Department for Welsh health care sure isn't. Why can't there be a Labour PM for UK wide issues but under EVEL a Tory government for devolved matters if that's the way people voted? Scotland and Wales have that situation.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Can't see the labels. Which is dark blue?
    YES is dark blue.

    NB, this is a possible running total lead after each declaration, for YES to win by the narrowest of margins.

    We see that YES should roar into the lead in the early declarations, but then gradually weaken so that NO build an even bigger lead, only for it all to be upset by Glasgow near the end.

    Not a prediction, nor a prediction of the declaration order, but I expect the post-mortem graph on Friday to have many similarities to mine, whatever the result...
    So, the Highlands and Islands go 'yes'? Weekend poll I saw seemed to show them definitely in 'No' camp, which I found odd.
    I think you've misread the graph.

    The Western Isles go Yes, the Highlands go No.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    There used to by a moderator ruling asking us not to engage in tedious guessing games about which anonymous poster is really another anonymous poster. Could we have it back? Who cares if Fred is really George? It's one of those in-group things that puts off new posters.

    Why would someone constantly keep doing it though? It's annoying
  • Alistair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    @numbercruncher

    The graph is a plausible scenario (for a narrow YES) given the suggested declaration order...

    Now with labels.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Indyref.PNG

    Can't see the labels. Which is dark blue?
    YES is dark blue.

    NB, this is a possible running total lead after each declaration, for YES to win by the narrowest of margins.

    We see that YES should roar into the lead in the early declarations, but then gradually weaken so that NO build an even bigger lead, only for it all to be upset by Glasgow near the end.

    Not a prediction, nor a prediction of the declaration order, but I expect the post-mortem graph on Friday to have many similarities to mine, whatever the result...
    So, the Highlands and Islands go 'yes'? Weekend poll I saw seemed to show them definitely in 'No' camp, which I found odd.
    I think you've misread the graph.

    The Western Isles go Yes, the Highlands go No.
    My mistake.
  • Kevin said:



    Sorry but for me the Balkanisation of England

    But it isn't close to Balkanisation.

    It's giving large amounts of power to the constituent parts of England so that they can do something more useful with it than Westminster does. On the whole the people of Manchester have a much better idea of what is good for Manchester than the people of Kent have.
    I am afraid that if the way county and district councils are run is any measure then all you will be doing is wasting a huge amount of money.

    It is utterly unnecessary when we can simply deal with the WLQ with EVEL.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    FPT: Good evening, everyone.

    Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/

    Well, we'll just have to disagree. The WLQ does need answering; on that, I think we can agree. And while I disagree with Ferguson's argument, which essentially comes down to that we shouldn't have an English parliament because the London media is lazy, I do think he's stumbled across something resembling the true problem.

    An separate English parliament would too closely resemble the UK one to be anything other than a rival and near-duplicate; an English parliament comprising only English MPs of the UK parliament would cause too many tensions within Westminster with differing mandates and the ridiculous position that a government could win votes of confidence and pass budgets to stay in office and raise money, but had policies imposed upon it by the 'opposition' as to how to spend that money.

    Westminster should have a single purpose: the Federal Parliament of the United Kingdom. Devolution, which must happen to rebalance the equation with Wales and N Ireland, never mind what happens in Scotland, should be to English regions. If there needs to be further discussion on where the borders should be, fine - but that doesn't change the central point.
    The WLQ can be answered without either an English Parliament or regionalisation. All it needs is an EVEL in the current Parliament. This should have been a priority for the Tories from the start of this Parliament but I suspect they would not have run with this because of the effect it might have had on the Independence vote.
    I dislike EVEL as a solution as you could easily have a situation where Labour ministers head all the departments but are incapable of getting any legislation through because while they have a majority at UK level, on which a vote of confidence is based, they have none in England. I don't think it would be a tenable situation.

    Let Westminster deal with defence, the economy, foreign affairs, and matters of genuine UK-wide concern, and devolve the rest.
    If there's a Labour government which doesn't have a majority in the English committee, they can do what governments have done since time memorial: negotiate with MPs until they find a compromise that can pass. I don't see why it's such a big deal.
  • Kevin said:



    Sorry but for me the Balkanisation of England

    But it isn't close to Balkanisation.

    It's giving large amounts of power to the constituent parts of England so that they can do something more useful with it than Westminster does. On the whole the people of Manchester have a much better idea of what is good for Manchester than the people of Kent have.
    @Richard Tyndall

    We already have devolved government in England - in London. It works very well. Why not a similar system in Manchester?
    If England wants to devolve power, that's fine. What's not fine is for the UK to directly devolve power to English regions. It's as if we said to Scotland "you're much bigger than Northern Ireland and Wales, we are going to split you into two before devolution".

  • Kevin said:



    Sorry but for me the Balkanisation of England

    But it isn't close to Balkanisation.

    It's giving large amounts of power to the constituent parts of England so that they can do something more useful with it than Westminster does. On the whole the people of Manchester have a much better idea of what is good for Manchester than the people of Kent have.
    @Richard Tyndall

    We already have devolved government in England - in London. It works very well. Why not a similar system in Manchester?
    We have extremely limited devolved government in London. Effectively it is a glorified County Council. If Manchester want that then fine. But that will not deal with the WLQ. EVEL will deal with that and is the way we should go. Following the stupid unwanted regional government plan that was comprehensively rejected by the electorate last time is just a waste of time and money.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    There used to by a moderator ruling asking us not to engage in tedious guessing games about which anonymous poster is really another anonymous poster. Could we have it back? Who cares if Fred is really George? It's one of those in-group things that puts off new posters.

    When a poster claims that he can no longer post here because it's too right wing and unpleasant for him, but returns later the same day under a pseudonym to continue posting. Then rinses and repeats, frequently, I find that incredibly dishonest. If such blatant sock puppetry isn't stopped by the mods, then I feel it's fair enough to point it out.
  • There used to by a moderator ruling asking us not to engage in tedious guessing games about which anonymous poster is really another anonymous poster. Could we have it back? Who cares if Fred is really George? It's one of those in-group things that puts off new posters.

    When a poster claims that he can no longer post here because it's too right wing and unpleasant for him, but returns later the same day under a pseudonym to continue posting. Then rinses and repeats, frequently, I find that incredibly dishonest. If such blatant sock puppetry isn't stopped by the mods, then I feel it's fair enough to point it out.
    What on Earth are you talking about?
  • KevinKevin Posts: 19
    WLQ is such a small problem. The bigger issue for England is how to govern England better. Less Westminster is a very necessary part of the answer.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited September 2014

    We already have devolved government in England - in London. It works very well. Why not a similar system in Manchester?

    A ludicrous assertion. Compare the powers of the Greater London Authority with the Scottish Parliament. The former is a Crossmanite scheme of centralising the powers of local authorities, whereas the latter can make primary legislation. Creating seven equivalents to the GLA in the rest of England is no solution at all to the West Lothian question.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I remember a couple of hours of that day quite clearly.
    I was standing on the corner of Upper St and Canonbury Street in Islington visiting my grandparents who lived at 260 Upper St (with my parents of course) when there was a heavy drone of German aircraft coming nearer, it seemed. The time was about midday as we were due for lunch. Going upstairs into my grandma's kitchen, I looked out of the window to see high up overhead the contrails of planes like wheeling silver dots, now heading away from my eyesight. No bombs were dropped in my hearing, that I remember, but the all clear didn't sound until 5 o'clock. I was six years old.
This discussion has been closed.