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YouGov MRP poll has CON losing to LAB all but 3 of 88 marginals – politicalbetting.com

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    dixiedean said:

    He's a Lib Dem.
    Difficult to keep up, but leftie sounds safe.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    dixiedean said:

    He's a Lib Dem.
    He has been a lib dem for a little while he was a labour member for a lot of years before that, and after all lib dems keep getting claimed for the so called progressive alliance
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    I am not condoning anyone's boys. I am gently disagreeing with your notion that whilst they might exaggerate their tally of tanks and downed enemy aircraft, the Ukranian side are too jolly sporting to really mislead us about anything big. On the contrary, the big things *are* what they'd lie about, quite understandably, because they are desperate to drive the enemy out of their country. You don't see that because you don't want to.
    While you swallow everything the russians say hook line and sinker. When it comes to Russia your credibility is less than Boris Johnson saying I have been faithful honest darling
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Conservative doctrine is clear that high pay is necessary to attract talent in the private sector, but that this does not translate to the public sector because… well, I think because high-paid people in the private sector vote for them and high-paid people in the public sector don’t.
    HYUFD keeps saying that non-Tories don't count in Tory thinking. The Tories will only do anything for their voters - which means, given that life is in part a zero sum game, that the Tories will deliberately and with full malice screw people who don't vote for them.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD keeps saying that non-Tories don't count in Tory thinking. The Tories will only do anything for their voters - which means, given that life is in part a zero sum game, that the Tories will deliberately and with full malice screw people who don't vote for them.
    HYUFD confuses conservatives with himself however. There are decent minded conservatives out there. HYUFD however stole his moral compass of Gordon Brown then broke it even more than it already was
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2022
    Pagan2 said:

    He has been a lib dem for a little while he was a labour member for a lot of years before that, and after all lib dems keep getting claimed for the so called progressive alliance
    He lives in Scotland, now anyway.

    In Scotland, Labour are light blue, and the LDs are almost as much hard right as the Tories. Edit: though, as RP shows, containing a range of views!

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/scotland2021
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Carnyx said:

    He lives in Scotland, now anyway.

    In Scotland, Labour are light blue, and the LDs are almost as much hard right as the Tories. Edit: though, as RP shows, containing a range of views!

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/scotland2021
    Well don't know if scottish tories are more right wing but down nationally Johnson is slighty to the right of corbyn and far to the left of blair
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    Dura_Ace said:


    Oh God! Oh God! My boots are WET! We have to surrender NOW!
    lol
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,758

    Is this guy a troll or what
    Not a troll, but a slightly nutty controversialist. Believes in homeopathy, that Russia didn’t shot down the Malaysian airliner, etc. generally takes the position that the evidence provided by the west is incomplete or unreliable.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Pagan2 said:

    Well don't know if scottish tories are more right wing but down nationally Johnson is slighty to the right of corbyn and far to the left of blair
    One thing we can say for sure is that the Scottish Tories are now very confused under Mr Ross.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,758

    So they'd make up 'silly propaganda stories', but definitely not make up big things that could actually command the news agenda and push the overton window?

    We had the maternity hospital attack, in which in transpired that (tragically) three people lost their lives.

    We had the theatre attack where there were alleged to be over a thousand buried in the rubble, then it got very vague and mealy mouthed. There's an interesting on the ground report here, it's Iranian, and I can't and don't vouch for the slant, but he tries to be balanced, and I don't think any Western agencies are now on the ground. It appears that casualties actually sit in the low 10s. Still a tragedy, but nothing like what has been portrayed. How can you miscount by 1000 people?
    https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2022/05/22/682520/Mariupol-Drama-Theatre-bombing-Ukraine-Russia-conflict-

    These things aren't scrutinised or
    questioned, we just get the outrage, then forget it and move to the next atrocity.
    So it’s ok to bomb a maternity hospital if you don’t do a good job?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    Not a troll, but a slightly nutty controversialist. Believes in homeopathy, that Russia didn’t shot down the Malaysian airliner, etc. generally takes the position that the evidence provided by the west is incomplete or unreliable.

    Believes in homeopathy? Surely not.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2022
    Stocky said:

    Believes in homeopathy? Surely not.
    No; I was wondering too. Was LG the PBer who advocated injections of oxidising disinfectants - hydrogen peroxide? - as a cure for covid? I hesitate to be at all definite as memory is faint after 2 and a bit years of pandemic, but if it was him it sure is not homoeopathic!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    dixiedean said:

    He's a Lib Dem.
    My point about driver pay was simple. Unless and until more drivers appear you pay more without actually fixing the problem. There is still a shortage of drivers - albeit not as acute as it was - and despite deliveries still being affected by it the transport costs are way higher for no real benefit. Great for the drivers, though they are contributing to the runaway price inflation they are being hit by.

    Which of course is the curse of inflation - the more inflation goes up the more pay people demand, Which increases inflation, and then pay demands again...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,758
    edited May 2022
    Stocky said:

    Believes in homeopathy? Surely not.
    Do you think someone can read between the lines to infer my views on homeopathy?

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Pagan2 said:

    He has been a lib dem for a little while he was a labour member for a lot of years before that, and after all lib dems keep getting claimed for the so called progressive alliance
    I'm a centre-leftie. I am not remotely supported by my actual leftie friends in pointing to the futility of some pay rises. BTW was always the same even when I was a Labour member - stuff like firemen demanding 40% more was stupid and I said so at the time.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,758
    Carnyx said:

    No; I was wondering too. Was LG the PBer who advocated injections of oxidising disinfectants - hydrogen peroxide? - as a cure for covid? I hesitate to be at all definite as memory is faint after 2 and a bit years of pandemic, but if it was him it sure is not homoeopathic!
    I don’t think so. That was @rpjs (at least he believed in ivermectin so I assume he was open to hydrogen peroxide). @Luckyguy1983 believes in various diet fads (although I’d be first to say that nutrition is viral) over vaccines and red dust over sustainable agriculture
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,758
    Farooq said:

    I didn't realise that LG was an MH17 conspiracy theorist. What an absolute turd.
    He just has an unrealistically high standard of proof for anything Russia is accused of…
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    My point about driver pay was simple. Unless and until more drivers appear you pay more without actually fixing the problem. There is still a shortage of drivers - albeit not as acute as it was - and despite deliveries still being affected by it the transport costs are way higher for no real benefit. Great for the drivers, though they are contributing to the runaway price inflation they are being hit by.

    Which of course is the curse of inflation - the more inflation goes up the more pay people demand, Which increases inflation, and then pay demands again...
    The latter part though you have in the past argued people need to be paid more so a job actually delivers a life rather than get by. One sector gets some payrise and you immediately up in horror because them being payed more might be inflationary. So how do you suggest people get more money so they can actually live rather than merely try to stagger from paypacket to paypacket merely scratching by without increasing their pay?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    edited May 2022
    I’m frankly outraged by the accusation that instead of ‘drinking beer in Greece and having sex’ I should ‘fuck off to Donbass and fight’

    1. I’m on the wine
    2. I’m in Georgia (the one next to Russia)
    3. I’m not getting much sex
    4. I’m merely pointing out that, given the Russian army’s propensity to rape, torture, kidnap, loot, abduct, and generally lay waste, asking the Ukrainians to negotiate a peace by ceding territory is like asking someone, who is being brutally assaulted, to ‘just let the assault go on for a couple more hours, stop resisting, then everything will be fine once he’s broken a few more bones’

    The Ukrainians are going to fight for every inch, so the PB admirers of Russian rape-war - @Luckyguy1983 and @Dura_Ace and @Roger etc - might as well accept they will be disappointed in their hopes for instant Russian victory
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,320
    edited May 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not really. Limit people to 5 in the magazine, have to work the bolt between shots, sporting rifles, and that really slows you down compared to 100 round AR drums unless possibly you have a sack of prefilled magazines and have practised a fuck of a lot. Which the arse at Uvalde prolly hadn't.

    Plenty of stats showing that AR15 type sprees are I think 6x as deadly as their competitors.
    I read on Twitter (disclaimer of responsibility for veracity etc) that the cops in Uvalde found 53 magazines in the school; being able to buy all that without alarm bells going off seems almost as heinous as buying the weapons.

    He must have been a strong little fcuker to hump that around.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    I don’t think so. That was @rpjs (at least he believed in ivermectin so I assume he was open to hydrogen peroxide). @Luckyguy1983 believes in various diet fads (although I’d be first to say that nutrition is viral) over vaccines and red dust over sustainable agriculture
    rural voter I think was ivermectin guy I seem to remember putinguy banging on about zinc however. But he definitely is one of the russia tells the truth and anything contradictory is western misinformation people
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,758
    Leon said:

    I’m frankly outraged by the accusation that instead of ‘drinking beer in Greece and having sex’ I should ‘fuck off to Donbass and fight’

    1. I’m on the wine
    2. I’m in Georgia (the one next to Russia)
    3. I’m not getting much sex
    4. I’m merely pointing out that, given the Russian army’s propensity to rape, torture, kidnap, loot, abduct, and generally lay waste, asking the Ukrainians to negotiate a peace by ceding territory is like asking someone, who is being brutally assaulted, to ‘just let the assault go on for a couple more hours, stop resisting, then everything will be fine once he’s broken a few more bones’

    The Ukrainians are going to fight for every inch, so the PB admirers of Russian rape-war hoping - @Luckyguy1983 and @Dura_Ace and @Roger etc - might as well accept they will be disappointed in their hopes for instant Russian victory

    You forgot @YBarddCwsc who was the one actually accusing you!

    I think he doesn’t care about Russia or Ukraine. He’s just got a sad case of thinking Wales should be independent therefore everything the UK government is bad.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Leon said:

    I’m frankly outraged by the accusation that instead of ‘drinking beer in Greece and having sex’ I should ‘fuck off to Donbass and fight’

    1. I’m on the wine
    2. I’m in Georgia (the one next to Russia)
    3. I’m not getting much sex
    4. I’m merely pointing out that, given the Russian army’s propensity to rape, torture, kidnap, loot, abduct, and generally lay waste, asking the Ukrainians to negotiate a peace by ceding territory is like asking someone, who is being brutally assaulted, to ‘just let the assault go on for a couple more hours, stop resisting, then everything will be fine once he’s broken a few more bones’

    The Ukrainians are going to fight for every inch, so the PB admirers of Russian rape-war - @Luckyguy1983 and @Dura_Ace and @Roger etc - might as well accept they will be disappointed in their hopes for instant Russian victory

    Did you luck out with the bag lady?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    Farooq said:

    Here's the AP investigation.
    https://apnews.com/article/Russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-theater-c321a196fbd568899841b506afcac7a1

    I would urge you, please, to think about who PressTV are and what their agenda is.
    First, @roger says ‘Corbyn is right about the Ukrainian war’ then @Luckyguy1983 quotes Corbyn’s employers, PressTV

    One might detect a theme
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,758
    Pagan2 said:

    rural voter I think was ivermectin guy I seem to remember putinguy banging on about zinc however. But he definitely is one of the russia tells the truth and anything contradictory is western misinformation people
    Sorry you are right

    Apologies @rpjs
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,185

    Is it a tricky question or no brainier for West to supply the sort of range heavy guns that can go 300 miles and allow them to blast Russia territory, towns and cities?

    If you care about stopping Putin winning his colonial war, care and properly stand with the innocent Ukrainians you surely have no choice but to give Ukraine the weapons to strike deep and hard inside Russia?
    If you want 300 miles of range, that’s ballistic missiles (or cruise missiles), not guns.

    The West doesn’t go for short range ballistic missiles, in general.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I don’t think so. That was @rpjs (at least he believed in ivermectin so I assume he was open to hydrogen peroxide). @Luckyguy1983 believes in various diet fads (although I’d be first to say that nutrition is viral) over vaccines and red dust over sustainable agriculture
    Thank you - I am sure you must be right!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I read on Twitter (disclaimer of responsibility for veracity etc) that the cops in Uvalde found 53 magazines in the school; being able to buy all that without alarm bells going off seems almost as heinous as buying the weapons.

    He must have been a strong little fcuker to hump that around.
    You'd think the Americans would have the sense to restrict the 2nd Amendment to weapons that were in use at the time when it was passed. That is, single-shot flintlock muskets and pistols. Now that would really even the balance.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Pagan2 said:

    The latter part though you have in the past argued people need to be paid more so a job actually delivers a life rather than get by. One sector gets some payrise and you immediately up in horror because them being payed more might be inflationary. So how do you suggest people get more money so they can actually live rather than merely try to stagger from paypacket to paypacket merely scratching by without increasing their pay?
    You utterly miss the point. There are a whole swathe of jobs where people do not get paid enough to be able to live on. So we have to give in-work assistance to people via UC where working loing hard hours is not enough to pay their bills.

    Spending power will not increase if we pay more for jobs at the bottom end and reduce in work benefits. "Make Work Pay" was the Tory slogan, but they never did - witness the appalling taper rate in UC where more work is punitively taxed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,185
    Farooq said:

    Here's the AP investigation.
    https://apnews.com/article/Russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-theater-c321a196fbd568899841b506afcac7a1

    I would urge you, please, to think about who PressTV are and what their agenda is.
    Put it like this - when Iran chose to hold a conference about the Holocaust of the kind where David Irving was a guest speaker, which channel covered it as a serious, sensible conference, asking important questions?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    Pagan2 said:

    Did you luck out with the bag lady?
    Aha. She got off around Patras. That’s not a sexual euphemism

    My recent sexual diet has been meagre, but not non-existent. Ship’s biscuits
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744

    I read on Twitter (disclaimer of responsibility for veracity etc) that the cops in Uvalde found 53 magazines in the school; being able to buy all that without alarm bells going off seems almost as heinous as buying the weapons.

    He must have been a strong little fcuker to hump that around.
    Hey @Theuniondivvie - both myself and @foxy have asked if your photo shows the location of the Wannsee Conference. It looks roughly right, and that is certainly grim, but there are many places around Berlin with a grim history…

    Is it? I do love a travel quiz
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    You utterly miss the point. There are a whole swathe of jobs where people do not get paid enough to be able to live on. So we have to give in-work assistance to people via UC where working loing hard hours is not enough to pay their bills.

    Spending power will not increase if we pay more for jobs at the bottom end and reduce in work benefits. "Make Work Pay" was the Tory slogan, but they never did - witness the appalling taper rate in UC where more work is punitively taxed.
    Yes there are, hospitality workers and lorry drivers were on that list. I know my ex step brother was a lorry driver and got min wage. So you dont actually want them to earn more from what you say you merely want the governement to increase the money they still give them from uc?

    How does that help anyone if they are still reliant on state handouts except for people who want voters reliant on state handouts so they keep voting for parties that might up them.....ah now I get where you are coming from.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Leon said:

    Aha. She got off around Patras. That’s not a sexual euphemism

    My recent sexual diet has been meagre, but not non-existent. Ship’s biscuits
    Are you trying to tell us diplomatically that you got weevils from your last conquest?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2022

    You forgot @YBarddCwsc who was the one actually accusing you!

    I think he doesn’t care about Russia or Ukraine. He’s just got a sad case of thinking Wales should be independent therefore everything the UK government is bad.
    What do you mean "...accusing you!"

    It is not against the law for @Leon to drink beer and have sex.

    That fact that @Leon is having to drink wine and having to make do with meagre rations of sex with bag ladies shows his commitment to the cause.

    We are all making sacrifices for Ukraine ...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,320
    Leon said:

    Hey @Theuniondivvie - both myself and @foxy have asked if your photo shows the location of the Wannsee Conference. It looks roughly right, and that is certainly grim, but there are many places around Berlin with a grim history…

    Is it? I do love a travel quiz
    Ah sorry, I’ve been making the most of my last day in Berlin so only dipping in.
    It is indeed the villa where the Wannsee conference took place viewed from the lesser seen lakeside pov.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,185
    Pagan2 said:

    Are you trying to tell us diplomatically that you got weevils from your last conquest?
    Is that the lessor weevil?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    ..
    Leon said:

    Aha. She got off around Patras. That’s not a sexual euphemism

    My recent sexual diet has been meagre, but not non-existent. Ship’s biscuits
    Could have been these biscuits.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744

    You forgot @YBarddCwsc who was the one actually accusing you!

    I think he doesn’t care about Russia or Ukraine. He’s just got a sad case of thinking Wales should be independent therefore everything the UK government is bad.
    The pro Russia pimps are a weird bunch. From old lefties like @roger and NPXMP (tho Nick ascribes his carefully curated ambivalence to Russian ancestry) to Welsh Nats and rightwing eccentrics

    We have an unexpected couple in our extended family. A hardcore right winger of advanced years who just loves Russian culture to a middle aged conspiracy theorist who simply likes being contrary (I think); as a family we have stopped debating it. Gets too heated
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Pagan2 said:

    Yes there are, hospitality workers and lorry drivers were on that list. I know my ex step brother was a lorry driver and got min wage. So you dont actually want them to earn more from what you say you merely want the governement to increase the money they still give them from uc?

    How does that help anyone if they are still reliant on state handouts except for people who want voters reliant on state handouts so they keep voting for parties that might up them.....ah now I get where you are coming from.
    I want them *not* to be reliant on state handouts. For jobs to pay wages sufficient to live on. As I wrote above. If you read it and stop guessing where you want me to be "coming from".

    Whilst in-work assistance is better than not being there at all it is appalling that so many jobs are so poorly paid. Would be far better had the government tax cuts for companies been predicated on them paying decent wages rather than our taxes being used to subsidise Asda et al and boost shareholder dividends.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744

    Ah sorry, I’ve been making the most of my last day in Berlin so only dipping in.
    It is indeed the villa where the Wannsee conference took place viewed from the lesser seen lakeside pov.
    Ta for that. What is it like?

    I’ve always wanted to go there. In a macabre way. Just to see if it has a mood to match its history. I’m a firm believer in Sinclarian psychogeography
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,185
    Leon said:

    The pro Russia pimps are a weird bunch. From old lefties like @roger and NPXMP (tho Nick ascribes his carefully curated ambivalence to Russian ancestry) to Welsh Nats and rightwing eccentrics

    We have an unexpected couple in our extended family. A hardcore right winger of advanced years who just loves Russian culture to a middle aged conspiracy theorist who simply likes being contrary (I think); as a family we have stopped debating it. Gets too heated
    @Roger is just upset about some friends who’ve been deprived of their yachts.

    #JusticeForOligarchs
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    boulay said:

    ..

    Could have been these biscuits.


    How about these?

    https://metro.co.uk/2015/01/03/is-your-name-marie-then-youre-not-going-to-like-mcvities-swedens-rich-tea-biscuit-5008328/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,506
    Carnyx said:

    You'd think the Americans would have the sense to restrict the 2nd Amendment to weapons that were in use at the time when it was passed. That is, single-shot flintlock muskets and pistols. Now that would really even the balance.
    Isn't there a group on the Supreme Court who are "constitutionalists" (I think that is the term), who argue that the Founding Fathers meant every word and it should be interpreted exactly as written as per the time. So they should be in favour of flintlocks all round.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    Farooq said:

    I think you're overstating NPXMP's pro Russia creds. He seems fairly straight about it and doesn't come across at all like one of these mealy-mouthed "I'm only asking questions" types. He's set out a coherent position. I don't agree with that position, he's too dovish for my tastes on this subject, but that's a long way from being a pro-Russia "pimp".

    LG is a 100% wholewheat turd though.
    Dunno about NPXMP. To be fair he does admit upfront his familial Russian sympathies and he does always piously ‘hope for a negotiated peace soon’, but he also seems awfully unfussed about the undoubted atrocities. File under Maybe
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,506
    Interesting observation...


    Tom Larkin
    @TomLarkinSky
    ·
    2h
    24 is a lot less than 54, obviously.

    But worth noting that in 2018 the threshold to challenge May was 48. Public letters when the VONC was triggered? About 20.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Ah sorry, I’ve been making the most of my last day in Berlin so only dipping in.
    It is indeed the villa where the Wannsee conference took place viewed from the lesser seen lakeside pov.
    I found Filmmuseum Potsdam very interesting.

    It had a screening of Veit Harlan's film of Jew Suss (made at Goebbels' behest) when I was there.

    The potency of its mixture of antisemitism & sex & violence was still very shocking.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Leon said:

    The pro Russia pimps are a weird bunch. From old lefties like @roger and NPXMP (tho Nick ascribes his carefully curated ambivalence to Russian ancestry) to Welsh Nats and rightwing eccentrics

    We have an unexpected couple in our extended family. A hardcore right winger of advanced years who just loves Russian culture to a middle aged conspiracy theorist who simply likes being contrary (I think); as a family we have stopped debating it. Gets too heated
    Actually, all I have done is point out that Russia is grinding out a victory of sorts.

    You seem to conflate what I think is going to happen with what I actually want to happen.

    Still, let's discuss in 6 months time.

    We'll know then who called this right -- and if I am proved wrong, I am sure you will remind me.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,924
    Farooq said:

    I think you're overstating NPXMP's pro Russia creds. He seems fairly straight about it and doesn't come across at all like one of these mealy-mouthed "I'm only asking questions" types. He's set out a coherent position. I don't agree with that position, he's too dovish for my tastes on this subject, but that's a long way from being a pro-Russia "pimp".

    LG is a 100% wholewheat turd though.
    Foreign policy does do fascinating things in the way it cuts across other political beliefs. The f**k Putin tendency is found amongst Brexiteer and Remainer, libertarian and authoritarian, it unites Poland’s traditionalist far right with the Nordic liberal left, Starmer with Johnson. And friendly ambivalence towards Russia not only unites India and Pakistan but gets close to being the common policy of Israel and the Palestinians.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,546
    Must say that Top Gun: Maverick is so much better than the first movie it makes me think more movies should wait 35 years for a sequel.

    On the other hand Mary Poppins Returns was a bit meh.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744

    Actually, all I have done is point out that Russia is grinding out a victory of sorts.

    You seem to conflate what I think is going to happen with what I actually want to happen.

    Still, let's discuss in 6 months time.

    We'll know then who called this right -- and if I am proved wrong, I am sure you will remind me.
    What do you want to happen in Ukraine?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,320
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    Ta for that. What is it like?

    I’ve always wanted to go there. In a macabre way. Just to see if it has a mood to match its history. I’m a firm believer in Sinclarian psychogeography
    Didn’t actually visit it, just sailed by. My partner’s appetite for the weird tension between modern gemütlich Germany and its unarguably horrific past is a good deal less than mine. I can’t deny it’s why I find Berlin endlessly fascinating: step over a couple of Stolperstein on the way to breakfast, walk past an old SA hq & torture centre on the way to TK Maxx (which is crap in Germany by the wat) and then on to a flea market with disconcerting piles of old specs and shoes.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,758
    Leon said:

    Ta for that. What is it like?

    I’ve always wanted to go there. In a macabre way. Just to see if it has a mood to match its history. I’m a firm believer in Sinclarian psychogeography
    I had exactly that experience in Terezin. Will never go there again
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,924

    Actually, all I have done is point out that Russia is grinding out a victory of sorts.

    You seem to conflate what I think is going to happen with what I actually want to happen.

    Still, let's discuss in 6 months time.

    We'll know then who called this right -- and if I am proved wrong, I am sure you will remind me.
    If Russia is to grind out a victory of sorts, which does seem more on the cards now than back in March, I hope the West and Ukraine will ensure it’s a grubby, expensive, Pyrrhic victory that leaves Russia exhausted and bankrupt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,546

    Isn't there a group on the Supreme Court who are "constitutionalists" (I think that is the term), who argue that the Founding Fathers meant every word and it should be interpreted exactly as written as per the time. So they should be in favour of flintlocks all round.
    Sounds like what they tell themselves to justify doing whatever they want on a whole range of issues. Perhaps I am wrong, but I'm going to guess the constitutionalists have a much more fluid view of what the FF meant than they might claim.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,011

    Isn't there a group on the Supreme Court who are "constitutionalists" (I think that is the term), who argue that the Founding Fathers meant every word and it should be interpreted exactly as written as per the time. So they should be in favour of flintlocks all round.
    A sane view of the 2nd amendment for today's world, whatever was intended, is that it means that countries need armies, sadly, and that therefore any pacifists and Quakers around the place are free to think there shouldn't be a state militia, but but the state can't compel everyone to think so. Read it not as a pro-gun provision but an anti-pacifist one.


    "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,185
    kle4 said:

    Must say that Top Gun: Maverick is so much better than the first movie it makes me think more movies should wait 35 years for a sequel.

    On the other hand Mary Poppins Returns was a bit meh.

    A question for everyone who has seen the new Top Gun.

    Did everyone, the moment that a certain plane was mentioned as being used by the enemy, guess that part of the ending?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    edited May 2022
    Obligatory booze-with-view photo. Tbilisi is really really lovely. Quite unexpectedly so




  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,546

    Interesting observation...


    Tom Larkin
    @TomLarkinSky
    ·
    2h
    24 is a lot less than 54, obviously.

    But worth noting that in 2018 the threshold to challenge May was 48. Public letters when the VONC was triggered? About 20.

    Yes, the question is whether fewer are being discreet this time, or if we are in fact very close. Impossible to know I suppose, but it feels more dragged out.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    I want them *not* to be reliant on state handouts. For jobs to pay wages sufficient to live on. As I wrote above. If you read it and stop guessing where you want me to be "coming from".

    Whilst in-work assistance is better than not being there at all it is appalling that so many jobs are so poorly paid. Would be far better had the government tax cuts for companies been predicated on them paying decent wages rather than our taxes being used to subsidise Asda et al and boost shareholder dividends.
    Ok then we agree we want jobs to pay without government assistance and those working to not be living from hand to mouth.

    How do we get there without those people getting payrises which in your words will lead to an inflationary spiral I quote you here "and despite deliveries still being affected by it the transport costs are way higher for no real benefit. Great for the drivers, though they are contributing to the runaway price inflation they are being hit by."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,185
    algarkirk said:

    A sane view of the 2nd amendment for today's world, whatever was intended, is that it means that countries need armies, sadly, and that therefore any pacifists and Quakers around the place are free to think there shouldn't be a state militia, but but the state can't compel everyone to think so. Read it not as a pro-gun provision but an anti-pacifist one.


    "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

    The problem is precisely the need to invent new meanings to old laws.

    This is because the politicians have failed to keep up. Now the Supreme Court is another legislative body, knitting law from whatever they can find. Because they are the last people legislating……

    The original framers wanted a living constitution - one that *changed* with the times. Through the amendment process.

    Lincoln could have packed the court with a bunch of lawyers who could of re-interpreted the constitution to abolish slavery. Instead, he got the 13th Amendment passed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744

    Didn’t actually visit it, just sailed by. My partner’s appetite for the weird tension between modern gemütlich Germany and its unarguably horrific past is a good deal less than mine. I can’t deny it’s why I find Berlin endlessly fascinating: step over a couple of Stolperstein on the way to breakfast, walk past an old SA hq & torture centre on the way to TK Maxx (which is crap in Germany by the wat) and then on to a flea market with disconcerting piles of old specs and shoes.
    We are of like mind on the history. Is is exactly this tension which makes Berlin compelling - to me. You can still see the scars of the Red Army shrapnel on the Reichstag (and the graffiti). You can still follow the course of the Berlin Wall, noting the difference either side

    i read Anthony Beevor’s Berlin on my first visit there. Made it unforgettable

    It’s not a great world city but it is hypnotising. Also: gotta love a currywurst
  • I'd have Rory Stewart as PM, he warned us about Johnson very early on
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    boulay said:

    ..

    Could have been these biscuits.


    Read the other day that they have found another copy of the Wicked Bible (1631) the one which says "thou shalt commit adultery." Apparently it is thought this was delibgerate trolling by a typesetter, and he also altered a bit of Deuteronomy from "The Lord sheweth His Greatnesse to us" to "The Lord sheweth His Great asse to us." have been laughing about this for over a week now.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    maxh said:

    Thanks! I don't mind the response. I enjoy reading the bickering on here, so would feel hypocritical if I wasn't OK to be part of it. Anyway, I'm not sure that was an attack so much as a valid point (albeit misreading my poorly expressed point).
    Welcome aboard. If you enjoy bickering you have come to the right place :D
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    Welcome aboard. If you enjoy bickering you have come to the right place :D
    amateur bickering that is, want professional bickering get elected to stormont nods
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,638
    Leon said:

    Obligatory booze-with-view photo. Tbilisi is really really lovely. Quite unexpectedly so




    One of my wanderlust friends loves Tbilisi. She was raving about a trip to Tashkent she'd had the summer before covid hit - another unexpected 'hit'.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Pagan2 said:

    amateur bickering that is, want professional bickering get elected to stormont nods
    True enough :+1: My very Unionist mother is now spitting teeth because the Irish language bill that the Unionists have stalled for years at Stormont is now being pushed by Westminster.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    What do you want to happen in Ukraine?
    In an ideal world, the fates of these territories would be decided by free and fair plebiscites, not by guns.

    Russia has invaded & there is a bloody war & lots of killing. There are Russians and Ukrainians being killed, probably in roughly equal measure. It is a great tragedy for both Russia and Ukraine (for which Putin bears most of the blame).

    The best outcome is for Putin to be deposed and Russia to withdraw.

    However, that does not seem to me remotely likely. Even if Putin is deposed, I am pretty unconvinced any successor will withdraw from the conquered territory. Putin is much more likely to be deposed because he has been ineffective in subduing Ukraine, and his successor will be tougher.

    Eventually, when enough people have been killed, the two countries will stop fighting.

    I want that to happen earlier rather than later. So, I think Corbyn (and NPXMP) are right. We need to think about what final negotiated settlement might actually be possible.

    Ultimately, the economic effects of the war will drive everyone to the negotiating table.

    And there will be a compromise, because that is how most wars end.

    As to the progress of the War, Ukraine have done better than I originally thought. But they are still slowly losing territory, that they are unlikely to get back, IMO.

    (As regards Welsh nationalism and Ukraine, I am just amazed at the double standards of most of pb.com. They routinely dismiss the concerns of Welsh language speakers, yet now they now regard the rights of Ukrainian language speakers as something they are willing to die for in the Donbas. Or more accurately ... others to die for while they get drunk and have sex in Georgia).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    Yes, the question is whether fewer are being discreet this time, or if we are in fact very close. Impossible to know I suppose, but it feels more dragged out.
    If I were an MP I don't think I'd be scared of May whereas I'd be scared shitless of Johnson. So you'd expect a greater spiral of silence with him (unless the fear is enough to stop people submitting letters not just keep quiet about them).
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    I'd have Rory Stewart as PM, he warned us about Johnson very early on

    TBF, he was not the only one, but the enablers and lickspittles ignored that roar of indignation and elected the clown anyway
  • xxxxx5xxxxx5 Posts: 38
    Can someone explain this yougov poll to me - for the last seven- eight months we have had some fairly reasonable (not big) Labour leads but when these polls have been tested at elections Labour haven't done well enough. I'm not convinced Labour have sealed the deal with the electorate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,546
    IshmaelZ said:

    Read the other day that they have found another copy of the Wicked Bible (1631) the one which says "thou shalt commit adultery." Apparently it is thought this was delibgerate trolling by a typesetter, and he also altered a bit of Deuteronomy from "The Lord sheweth His Greatnesse to us" to "The Lord sheweth His Great asse to us." have been laughing about this for over a week now.
    Doesn't seem that different from lewd doodles in manuscripts by bored monks. I hope he got a good laugh from it.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    True enough :+1: My very Unionist mother is now spitting teeth because the Irish language bill that the Unionists have stalled for years at Stormont is now being pushed by Westminster.
    hehe well I discovered I actually have a half sister living in belfast about 4 years ago and we are in touch but while I like and enjoy political discussion have never actually asked her about whether she is union or republican as seems too hairy a subject over there. I did buy her a flag though as every house where she lives seems to have a flag pole
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744

    I had exactly that experience in Terezin. Will never go there again
    I’ve been to a few places with an intense feeling of sadness or desolation. Guilty secret: I seek them out. I like the frisson. Also it’s good to know the darker places, along with great restaurants and gorgeous views. A necessary balance

    Auschwitz is of course unforgettable, but it is kind of expected?

    Tuol Sleng the Khmer Rouge “torture garden” in Phnom Penh is somehow even darker in mood. The heat, the blood stains, the photos

    Some of the mesoAmerican sites of human sacrifice are unspeakable. The sullen Moche adobe pyramids, crumbling into great dust. The chac mools of the Aztecs

    But two obscure ones stand out. One was another site of human sacrifice, in the far north of Big island Hawaii. A sacrificial altar on a spectacular cliff top (people forget that the Polynesian/Pacific cultures could be brutally cruel). The roasting wind off the sea. the total silence except for some whirring grasses, the relentless blue of sky and ocean

    At the other end, the Solovetsky Islands in the White Sea. The first ever Soviet Gulag on an impossible remote sub-arctic archipelago with an incredible history of monastic settlement. The commies used the cyclopean monastery as a torture chamber, they would roll prisoners down the cliffs for fun to see if they bounced. Yet it is also holy and beautiful. So strange
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    xxxxx5 said:

    Can someone explain this yougov poll to me - for the last seven- eight months we have had some fairly reasonable (not big) Labour leads but when these polls have been tested at elections Labour haven't done well enough. I'm not convinced Labour have sealed the deal with the electorate.

    Dunno - Labour have done ok at elections tbh
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819

    I'd have Rory Stewart as PM, he warned us about Johnson very early on

    It was obvious from the very first time he appeared on HIGNFY that Johnson was a malignant shit. The curiosity for me is still why couldn't the English see it?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    In an ideal world, the fates of these territories would be decided by free and fair plebiscites, not by guns.

    Russia has invaded & there is a bloody war & lots of killing. There are Russians and Ukrainians being killed, probably in roughly equal measure. It is a great tragedy for both Russia and Ukraine (for which Putin bears most of the blame).

    The best outcome is for Putin to be deposed and Russia to withdraw.

    However, that does not seem to me remotely likely. Even if Putin is deposed, I am pretty unconvinced any successor will withdraw from the conquered territory. Putin is much more likely to be deposed because he has been ineffective in subduing Ukraine, and his successor will be tougher.

    Eventually, when enough people have been killed, the two countries will stop fighting.

    I want that to happen earlier rather than later. So, I think Corbyn (and NPXMP) are right. We need to think about what final negotiated settlement might actually be possible.

    Ultimately, the economic effects of the war will drive everyone to the negotiating table.

    And there will be a compromise, because that is how most wars end.

    As to the progress of the War, Ukraine have done better than I originally thought. But they are still slowly losing territory, that they are unlikely to get back, IMO.

    (As regards Welsh nationalism and Ukraine, I am just amazed at the double standards of most of pb.com. They routinely dismiss the concerns of Welsh language speakers, yet now they now regard the rights of Ukrainian language speakers as something they are willing to die for in the Donbas. Or more accurately ... others to die for while they get drunk and have sex in Georgia).
    If there is a negotiated peace do you think it will stop ukranians being killed, I don't believe so, the ukranians don't believe so. I don't think many western governements believe so though some like germany are willing to turn a blind eye
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,136
    TimS said:

    If Russia is to grind out a victory of sorts, which does seem more on the cards now than back in March, I hope the West and Ukraine will ensure it’s a grubby, expensive, Pyrrhic victory that leaves Russia exhausted and bankrupt.
    Agree. From a UK/NATO perspective, we get a highly successful proxy war out of this. We are compromising Russia's ability to invade Eastern Europe, destroying her economy, and rushing Green energy and self-reliance even faster than before. Also get excellent insight on which of our kit works or is useful on a modern battlefield.

    For Ukraine none of us can speak. Up to them - of they go for a negotiated peace then fine. If they don't want NATO, fine. If they want pre-2014 borders, fine.

    Russia is a parasite country, milking the host for cash with its provision of energy. Nerve agents in Salisbury ffs. Let's get rid.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Pagan2 said:

    hehe well I discovered I actually have a half sister living in belfast about 4 years ago and we are in touch but while I like and enjoy political discussion have never actually asked her about whether she is union or republican as seems too hairy a subject over there. I did buy her a flag though as every house where she lives seems to have a flag pole
    Er, how did you know which fleg to buy? Or did you get one of each?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    ohnotnow said:

    One of my wanderlust friends loves Tbilisi. She was raving about a trip to Tashkent she'd had the summer before covid hit - another unexpected 'hit'.
    It somehow seems to have escaped the endless-Stalinist-blocks and brutalist-towers-in-the-middle that blight most once-Soviet cities. The old town is near perfect in its preservation - and of course many old buildings are now being speedily turned into boutique hotels and chic wine bars, tho there are still plenty left in a state of greatly picturesque dilapidation. A brilliant mix

    I wonder if there was a tacit edict from Stalin, who must have known Tbilisi so well. “Don’t touch Tbilisi!”
  • Tres said:

    It was obvious from the very first time he appeared on HIGNFY that Johnson was a malignant shit. The curiosity for me is still why couldn't the English see it?
    I think let's say 30-40% of the country are immune to Johnson. I consider myself one of those.

    Sadly the other lot are not.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    True enough :+1: My very Unionist mother is now spitting teeth because the Irish language bill that the Unionists have stalled for years at Stormont is now being pushed by Westminster.
    Isn't that because the Unionists have closed Stormont down?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    I had exactly that experience in Terezin. Will never go there again
    Terezin was upsetting.

    Not least because when I visited, there was a loud party of Czech school kids presuably on a compulsory school trip, busy with their phones and their music and unconcerned with what had happened at the place.

    Also, I was amazed to discover that the place -- 30 miles North of Prague -- had a German-speaking majority in the years before the Second World War.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Carnyx said:

    Er, how did you know which fleg to buy? Or did you get one of each?
    I got her this one https://makeagif.com/gif/test-alliance-flag-flies-again-a8zJD3
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Pagan2 said:

    I got her this one https://makeagif.com/gif/test-alliance-flag-flies-again-a8zJD3
    Dinosaur in a unionist suit. Very unkind ...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744

    In an ideal world, the fates of these territories would be decided by free and fair plebiscites, not by guns.

    Russia has invaded & there is a bloody war & lots of killing. There are Russians and Ukrainians being killed, probably in roughly equal measure. It is a great tragedy for both Russia and Ukraine (for which Putin bears most of the blame).

    The best outcome is for Putin to be deposed and Russia to withdraw.

    However, that does not seem to me remotely likely. Even if Putin is deposed, I am pretty unconvinced any successor will withdraw from the conquered territory. Putin is much more likely to be deposed because he has been ineffective in subduing Ukraine, and his successor will be tougher.

    Eventually, when enough people have been killed, the two countries will stop fighting.

    I want that to happen earlier rather than later. So, I think Corbyn (and NPXMP) are right. We need to think about what final negotiated settlement might actually be possible.

    Ultimately, the economic effects of the war will drive everyone to the negotiating table.

    And there will be a compromise, because that is how most wars end.

    As to the progress of the War, Ukraine have done better than I originally thought. But they are still slowly losing territory, that they are unlikely to get back, IMO.

    (As regards Welsh nationalism and Ukraine, I am just amazed at the double standards of most of pb.com. They routinely dismiss the concerns of Welsh language speakers, yet now they now regard the rights of Ukrainian language speakers as something they are willing to die for in the Donbas. Or more accurately ... others to die for while they get drunk and have sex in Georgia).
    A fair answer, tho naive, to my mind. No way the Ukrainians will stop fighting. And if they do finally stop fighting, any compromise peace agreement will last a few months and then Ukraine - if it survives - will go back on the attack, overtly or covertly. There are 44m Ukrainians and Putin has embitttered nearly all of them. They now hate Russia, they feel extremely and angrily Ukrainian, they will want revenge

    How do you get peace out of that?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pagan2 said:

    If there is a negotiated peace do you think it will stop ukranians being killed, I don't believe so, the ukranians don't believe so. I don't think many western governements believe so though some like germany are willing to turn a blind eye
    I am not sure there are good options for Ukraine, there are just different shades of bad options.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Carnyx said:

    Isn't that because the Unionists have closed Stormont down?
    Yes indeed, but what she is moaning about is that years of loyalty to the UK from the Unionist community are being "rewarded" with a nationalist piece of legislation supported by Sinn Fein.

    She is still has not figured out that the easiest way for Westminster to resolve their Brexit dilemma is to ignore the Unionists and enable Irish unity or federalism.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Eabhal said:

    Agree. From a UK/NATO perspective, we get a highly successful proxy war out of this. We are compromising Russia's ability to invade Eastern Europe, destroying her economy, and rushing Green energy and self-reliance even faster than before. Also get excellent insight on which of our kit works or is useful on a modern battlefield.

    For Ukraine none of us can speak. Up to them - of they go for a negotiated peace then fine. If they don't want NATO, fine. If they want pre-2014 borders, fine.

    Russia is a parasite country, milking the host for cash with its provision of energy. Nerve agents in Salisbury ffs. Let's get rid.
    That makes it a symbiote.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Carnyx said:

    Dinosaur in a unionist suit. Very unkind ...
    blinks that MMD....middle management dinosaur
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    I'd have Rory Stewart as PM, he warned us about Johnson very early on

    You do know you could lose your Labour membership for that kind of loose talk.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,924
    edited May 2022

    Obligatory coffee and motorway service station pic, at the very pleasant and to be recommended Aire de Chateauvilain, heading South.

    Best outdoor seating, best parking, quietest setting of all the aires along the Autoroute from Northern France to Lyon.

    EDIT: photo oddly on its side
  • You do know you could lose your Labour membership for that kind of loose talk.
    Dude you literally said you'd vote for the Tories. Jesus Christ
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    Also: Easter Island

    TOTALLY FUCKING WEIRD AND SCARY AND HAUNTED
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    I am not sure there are good options for Ukraine, there are just different shades of bad options.
    For ukranians the worst option is to stop resisting in their minds I suspect. They don't want to surrender to a regime that will rape their mothers and daughters, murder sons and husbands and abduct their children on a whim. I wouldn't want to surrender to such a regime either I suspect neither would you.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Pagan2 said:

    blinks that MMD....middle management dinosaur
    Interestimg, though, as dinosaur = coeval with people is a standard creationist view, and some of the Unionists don't like geological time. So there is a curious inverted dilemma there - either interpretation is going to be unacceptable ...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,744
    TimS said:


    Obligatory coffee and motorway service station pic, at the very pleasant and to be recommended Aire de Chateauvilain, heading South.

    Best outdoor seating, best parking, quietest setting of all the aires along the Autoroute from Northern France to Lyon.

    EDIT: photo oddly on its side

    If you’re using Vanilla to post photos, you have to post Landscape shots, Portrait shots arrive like that. On their side
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    Carnyx said:

    Interestimg, though, as dinosaur = coeval with people is a standard creationist view, and some of the Unionists don't like geological time. So there is a curious inverted dilemma there - either interpretation is going to be unacceptable ...
    Will send you a private message as no need to burden the board
This discussion has been closed.