Lots of anxious chatter in government tonight about the privileges committee, with Johnson loyalists realising a careful probe of what he said and when could get quite dicey.
Harriet Harman likely to take charge, as @thetimes first revealed more than a month ago
(Sentence reduced - no jail sentence, smaller fine, conviction maintained)
And still moaning about it
I did like this bit.
But prosecutor Susannah Stevens said: "What was going on between Michelle Merritt and Lester Thomas is actually unhelpful to the appellant's case because Claudia Webbe's suspicions as to all of that provide her not with a defence but with a motivation."
Personally think recall petitions should be triggered upon any conviction, since I think the public would actually be understanding in the event of relatively minor instances, but should be asked to confirm that.
I guess a fixed penalty notice for a Covid offence doesn’t count? Asking for a friend...
I think it should. People could decide if that was not worth junking someone over.
They mustn't know whether they're coming or going anymore.
Personally I'm surprised that the support package was quite so big as it has turned out to be. I was expecting the Government to bail out old people and leave everybody else to rot.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
Interesting to see how much polls narrow in next fortnight due to todays package and Jubilee
And there's a problem in the US. Many Republicans are concerned that any kind of regulation is the thin end of the wedge that ends with the repeal of the Second Amendment. That's understandable.
But it also leads to a situation where even the most modest of proposals is blocked.
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
That report is bollocks. They aren't fed up with so many u-turns, the same thing gets reported every time they are asked to do this, yet they meekly await the next one.
And there's a problem in the US. Many Republicans are concerned that any kind of regulation is the thin end of the wedge that ends with the repeal of the Second Amendment.
They mustn't know whether they're coming or going anymore.
Personally I'm surprised that the support package was quite so big as it has turned out to be. I was expecting the Government to bail out old people and leave everybody else to rot.
There is an article tonight that says it will only buy a few months, and he will have to spend even more in the Autumn
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 2h The public may well like the windfall tax U-turn, but several Tory MPs are unhappy. One ex-minister tells me Sunak has thrown away any lingering hope of winning support from the right of the Tory party for a leadership bid: “This is just throwing soil on the coffin.”
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
Republican SOP, after every mass shooting, to call any attempt to do anything about guns “playing politics”. They deserve to be told to their faces that they are, by doing nothing, utterly complicit.
So... a mother in Uvalde was able to drive 40 miles, plead with police, get hand-cuffed, get uncuffed, jump the school fence, run inside and rescue her children while police sat around waiting for backup and listening to children get murdered. There's no fixing that.
So... a mother in Uvalde was able to drive 40 miles, plead with police, get hand-cuffed, get uncuffed, jump the school fence, run inside and rescue her children while police sat around waiting for backup and listening to children get murdered. There's no fixing that.
That is very true - but it still doesn't take away from the absolute kn0bbery of Beto's actions.
Only possible reason not to ditch the 1p and the 2p, so as not to mess up the shield. Both already pointless.
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
Would anyone care to have a stab at what percentage of the population is so skint that the prospect of having all prices rounded up to the nearest 5p would cause further material damage to their finances?
In which case there are no circumstances under which outdated coinage can be removed?
Based on my experience of living in countries where there are now no coins less than a 5, the supermarkets still price items in odd pennies and the rounding is done at the till. However in other shops/restaurants their prices are generally shown in tens rather than fives, thus making the five redundant (and a difficult coin for a collector like me to get hold of in day to day transactions).
I wonder if he is planning to revise it after the last three months.
Bloke in Hatchard's in St Pancras International was trying to flog me that book, saying how wonderful it was and absolutely spot on. Glad I didn't take him up on his recommendation...
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 2h The public may well like the windfall tax U-turn, but several Tory MPs are unhappy. One ex-minister tells me Sunak has thrown away any lingering hope of winning support from the right of the Tory party for a leadership bid: “This is just throwing soil on the coffin.”
Also, it isn't going to deal with the underlying problem - that our gas supplies are constricted and 30 years of complacency and underinvestment by multiple governments has left our utility networks unable to survive without them.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
It is a political issue but what a dick to crash it like that. He could have waited.
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
Bollocks. He's called out the PM's bullshit in the Commons. He's one of the few, very few good guys in the back benches.
He may go down with the party at the next election, but he'd be a loss to public life.
"Calling out the PM's bullshit in the Commons" isn't enough. Not even close. It's now the Conservative Party in general that needs to be buried, not just Boris. For good.
That’s reminiscent of Neil Kinnock saying that Gordon Brown would “grind the Tory bastards into dust”.
The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
It's nothing like what I'm saying. I'm saying what I think they deserve, not what I think will happen. I want every single Tory MP to lose. All of them. Literally nobody thinks that's going to happen.
So... a mother in Uvalde was able to drive 40 miles, plead with police, get hand-cuffed, get uncuffed, jump the school fence, run inside and rescue her children while police sat around waiting for backup and listening to children get murdered. There's no fixing that.
So... a mother in Uvalde was able to drive 40 miles, plead with police, get hand-cuffed, get uncuffed, jump the school fence, run inside and rescue her children while police sat around waiting for backup and listening to children get murdered. There's no fixing that.
That is very true - but it still doesn't take away from the absolute kn0bbery of Beto's actions.
They mustn't know whether they're coming or going anymore.
Personally I'm surprised that the support package was quite so big as it has turned out to be. I was expecting the Government to bail out old people and leave everybody else to rot.
There is an article tonight that says it will only buy a few months, and he will have to spend even more in the Autumn
In an obvious way that must be true as the pension and benefit system is uprated by September's inflation figure.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
Under FPTP your raw Party score isn't the most important metric. 1997 Tories 31%. Labour majority of 179. 2010 Labour 29%. Hung Parliament. I'm amazed you can't see that.
They mustn't know whether they're coming or going anymore.
Personally I'm surprised that the support package was quite so big as it has turned out to be. I was expecting the Government to bail out old people and leave everybody else to rot.
There is an article tonight that says it will only buy a few months, and he will have to spend even more in the Autumn
Or next year. It would be entirely unsurprising: one-off payments like this are by definition only temporary fixes for temporary problems. Unless the current bout of inflation is followed by an equal and opposite bout of deflation (highly improbable, of course,) then the agony is only deferred until the point at which the bungs have been spent.
After that, the Government has to decide who to let rot, who, if anyone, is deserving of hefty permanent increases in social security - and who is going to be taxed harder to pay for more benefits. That's the juncture at which a further wealth transfer from working people (including the many who are already struggling) to pensioners may occur.
Exactly three weeks to the day crime commissioner Caroline Henry appeared in court and admitted to 5 speeding offences, she launches a new board to hold Nottinghamshire Police to account.
@AlexNorrisNN says it shows how untenable her position is.
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
It is a political issue but what a dick to crash it like that. He could have waited.
How tactless of him to get upset about children being murdered en masse. So unseemly.
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
It is a political issue but what a dick to crash it like that. He could have waited.
There have been 27 school shootings and 200 mass killings in America already this year.
May I gently suggest that the problem is America has waited rather too long to confront this major problem, not that somebody crashed the podium to call out the acquiescence of the Governor in laws that enabled the murder of multiple children?
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
It is a political issue but what a dick to crash it like that. He could have waited.
How tactless of him to get upset about children being murdered en masse. So unseemly.
What I personally find more unseemly is that Abbot will still win, because a majority of Texans prize their guns more than their children.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
OT. Excellent documentary on Netflix called 'The Staircase'. French documentary team with remarkable access to the trial and family of an author accused of murdering his wife.
"Well, you've got a much better documentary now."
I bought Petersen's book (no money goes to him). Not really about the trial, mostly a diary of how to survive prison. Very good. He did it, of course.
I would say he did it but the the verdict was by no means certain. The jail time was hardly touched on in the documentary
Laurence Fox will have to pay more than £36,000 in legal fees to three people he referred to as 'paedophiles' on Twitter after losing his bid for a jury to hear their High Court libel battle.
Laurence Fox will have to pay more than £36,000 in legal fees to three people he referred to as 'paedophiles' on Twitter after losing his bid for a jury to hear their High Court libel battle.
Got off extremely lightly there. I wouldn't be happy with that if he'd called me that.
They mustn't know whether they're coming or going anymore.
Personally I'm surprised that the support package was quite so big as it has turned out to be. I was expecting the Government to bail out old people and leave everybody else to rot.
There is an article tonight that says it will only buy a few months, and he will have to spend even more in the Autumn
In an obvious way that must be true as the pension and benefit system is uprated by September's inflation figure.
Rishi affirmed the benefit uplift and triple lock rise for next April at September inflation rate
This is a huge promise with some saying it will cost 25 billion
They mustn't know whether they're coming or going anymore.
Personally I'm surprised that the support package was quite so big as it has turned out to be. I was expecting the Government to bail out old people and leave everybody else to rot.
There is an article tonight that says it will only buy a few months, and he will have to spend even more in the Autumn
In an obvious way that must be true as the pension and benefit system is uprated by September's inflation figure.
Rishi affirmed the benefit uplift and triple lock rise for next April at September inflation rate
This is a huge promise with some saying it will cost 25 billion
At this rate, we are going to be making handbags out of £5 notes as they will be so worthless.
They mustn't know whether they're coming or going anymore.
Personally I'm surprised that the support package was quite so big as it has turned out to be. I was expecting the Government to bail out old people and leave everybody else to rot.
There is an article tonight that says it will only buy a few months, and he will have to spend even more in the Autumn
In an obvious way that must be true as the pension and benefit system is uprated by September's inflation figure.
Rishi affirmed the benefit uplift and triple lock rise for next April at September inflation rate
This is a huge promise with some saying it will cost 25 billion
No change on the UC taper rate. That's a real issue as an incentive to move into work. The marginal tax rates faced by unemployed UC claimants are eye watering.
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
It is a political issue but what a dick to crash it like that. He could have waited.
There have been 27 school shootings and 200 mass killings in America already this year.
May I gently suggest that the problem is America has waited rather too long to confront this major problem, not that somebody crashed the podium to call out the acquiescence of the Governor in laws that enabled the murder of multiple children?
I think he came over very well. About time someone stood up like he did. Someone took a classic picture (shown here earlier today) Expect to see on campaign literature. It made the guys on the stage look like angry rednecks being challenged by a sole individual.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
So it's a good number?
I think @HYUFD is the only true Boris cheerleader on here
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
LD figure is worrying for the Tories (given theor vote is likely to be even more efficiently concentrated in the South of England than in 1997). Don't get me wrong, the absolute maximum the LDs can get at the next election is probably about 35 MPs but the Tories are still in trouble.
The Tories could be holding up relatively well in the West Midlands but doing pretty badly in Con-LD marginals in Somerset and the SE and Con-Lab marginals in North and South like 2010 in reverse.
Laurence Fox will have to pay more than £36,000 in legal fees to three people he referred to as 'paedophiles' on Twitter after losing his bid for a jury to hear their High Court libel battle.
Got off extremely lightly there. I wouldn't be happy with that if he'd called me that.
Trials still to come. Just has to pay others costs for trying to wrangle for a Jury
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
Under FPTP your raw Party score isn't the most important metric. 1997 Tories 31%. Labour majority of 179. 2010 Labour 29%. Hung Parliament. I'm amazed you can't see that.
Labour still polling about 3% less than 1997 and after boundary changes still not getting a majority alone a landslide.
Don't forget 1997 only happened after Major won a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power, the only PM in the last 100 years to do so.
The odds were always Labour would win the next general election after the Tories 2019 win, however they are still far from sealing it
Laurence Fox will have to pay more than £36,000 in legal fees to three people he referred to as 'paedophiles' on Twitter after losing his bid for a jury to hear their High Court libel battle.
Got off extremely lightly there. I wouldn't be happy with that if he'd called me that.
Trials still to come. Just has to pay others costs for trying to wrangle for a Jury
Getting expensive...
The actor's legal costs for making the unsuccessful bid came to £116,314.55, according to court documents.
The alternative was civil disorder as Martin Lewis has been saying. That may still happen if inflation, particularly food thanks to Mad Vlad, continues to surge.
Laurence Fox will have to pay more than £36,000 in legal fees to three people he referred to as 'paedophiles' on Twitter after losing his bid for a jury to hear their High Court libel battle.
Got off extremely lightly there. I wouldn't be happy with that if he'd called me that.
Trials still to come. Just has to pay others costs for trying to wrangle for a Jury
OK. He deserves to be bankrupted. Pour encourager les autres. Fair comment and criticism is fine.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
Interesting to see how much polls narrow in next fortnight due to todays package and Jubilee
If they dont narrow Tories in big trouble
If you are lucky Starmer gets his inevitable FPN, resigns in ignominious disgrace and Sunak's whopping give away gains traction. Before you know it, newly innocent Johnson is 9 points ahead of Streeting/Nandy.
It's a good Corbynista package nonetheless. I always knew Sunak was a Trojan Horse Socialist.
OT. Excellent documentary on Netflix called 'The Staircase'. French documentary team with remarkable access to the trial and family of an author accused of murdering his wife.
"Well, you've got a much better documentary now."
I bought Petersen's book (no money goes to him). Not really about the trial, mostly a diary of how to survive prison. Very good. He did it, of course.
I would say he did it but the the verdict was by no means certain. The jail time was hardly touched on in the documentary
The prosecution (foolishly?) only brought a single count: first degree (premeditated) murder. This required their narrative, that there was a struggle at the top of the stairs that involved her ending up at the bottom, that she did not die, and was then beaten at the bottom of the stairs when he realised she was still alive, to be believed in its entirety.
By "it", I merely mean that he was involved in the altercation that killed her. Perhaps the element of premeditation was not there.
"Neither a French president, a German intellectual, nor an award-winning American newspaper are exempt from being wrong."
Spiky.
The U.S. must understand the futility and stop “taunting” Russia, the editorial says. Meaning: Ukraine will lose anyway, stop helping it so it’s over faster.
A common view, presented as realism, which would not be entirely unreasonable were it not usually presented without consideration of whether Ukraine might prefer some losses more than others.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
Under FPTP your raw Party score isn't the most important metric. 1997 Tories 31%. Labour majority of 179. 2010 Labour 29%. Hung Parliament. I'm amazed you can't see that.
Labour still polling about 3% less than 1997 and after boundary changes still not getting a majority alone a landslide.
Don't forget 1997 only happened after Major won a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power, the only PM in the last 100 years to do so.
The odds were always Labour would win the next general election after the Tories 2019 win, however they are still far from sealing it
Since when were Labour favourites to win the next GE?
Laurence Fox will have to pay more than £36,000 in legal fees to three people he referred to as 'paedophiles' on Twitter after losing his bid for a jury to hear their High Court libel battle.
Today I became a statistic. I have joined an NHS waiting list. Eighteen months in my case for a cataract operation.
Postcode lottery. My Mam was diagnosed in February and had it three weeks ago. Sympathies. The state of the NHS is the only political talk I hear from my oldie friends.
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
It is a political issue but what a dick to crash it like that. He could have waited.
There have been 27 school shootings and 200 mass killings in America already this year.
May I gently suggest that the problem is America has waited rather too long to confront this major problem, not that somebody crashed the podium to call out the acquiescence of the Governor in laws that enabled the murder of multiple children?
O'Rourke has little chance of winning his election anyway presumably. He may upset and aggravate some people by not being polite about it, but politically (let alone any other consideration) he might as well go very strong on all issues. It's not really an area where a nuanced position seems likely to win over any floaters, so lose, but lose honestly I guess.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
Under FPTP your raw Party score isn't the most important metric. 1997 Tories 31%. Labour majority of 179. 2010 Labour 29%. Hung Parliament. I'm amazed you can't see that.
Labour still polling about 3% less than 1997 and after boundary changes still not getting a majority alone a landslide.
Don't forget 1997 only happened after Major won a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power, the only PM in the last 100 years to do so.
The odds were always Labour would win the next general election after the Tories 2019 win, however they are still far from sealing it
Since when were Labour favourites to win the next GE?
Since the day after the Tories won a 4th consecutive general election in 2019 on historical precedence
"Neither a French president, a German intellectual, nor an award-winning American newspaper are exempt from being wrong."
Spiky.
The U.S. must understand the futility and stop “taunting” Russia, the editorial says. Meaning: Ukraine will lose anyway, stop helping it so it’s over faster.
A common view, presented as realism, which would not be entirely unreasonable were it not usually presented without consideration of whether Ukraine might prefer some losses more than others.
And also not necessarily reflecting the military reality. As the editorial says, Ukraine has driven Russia out of more than 40% of the land the latter occupied since the start of the conflict. The US is now openly saying that Russia has lost nearly 1,000 tanks, which would be considerably higher than Oryx's numbers and, if extrapolated, would suggest the Russians have lost c. 5K vehicles. And Ukraine is training up more troops, receiving more equipment etc while Russia's military capabilities continue to degrade.
Laurence Fox will have to pay more than £36,000 in legal fees to three people he referred to as 'paedophiles' on Twitter after losing his bid for a jury to hear their High Court libel battle.
Laurence Fox will have to pay more than £36,000 in legal fees to three people he referred to as 'paedophiles' on Twitter after losing his bid for a jury to hear their High Court libel battle.
And everyone says the news these days is always bad!
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
The 3% ref figure may be voters who can’t bear to be supporting Boris shambolic government a day longer so fled right rather than centre - and you’ve just marked them down as a yes?
The next challenges are going to be Public Sector pay (good luck keeping rises to 1-2%) and tax thresholds (again, good luck keeping them frozen, though the stealth windfall for the government must help the sums work out. If they should go up by £1000 and aren't, that's £200 per taxpayer, £400 for a working couple and where have I seen £400 splashed about today?)
Either way the 3 Green MPs will back Labor so they pass the 76 threshold needed for government
True, but parties do like to be able to claim an actual majority, psychologically. Cameron winning the first majority for the party was probably celebrated more than being the first PM for the party in a long time.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
Under FPTP your raw Party score isn't the most important metric. 1997 Tories 31%. Labour majority of 179. 2010 Labour 29%. Hung Parliament. I'm amazed you can't see that.
Labour still polling about 3% less than 1997 and after boundary changes still not getting a majority alone a landslide.
Don't forget 1997 only happened after Major won a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power, the only PM in the last 100 years to do so.
The odds were always Labour would win the next general election after the Tories 2019 win, however they are still far from sealing it
Since when were Labour favourites to win the next GE?
Since the day after the Tories won a 4th consecutive general election in 2019 on historical precedence
Serious point: if Labour win the next election they won't be able to increase public expenditure. We are fast approaching the outer limits of a manageable deficit. Run on pound, inflation, credit downgrading if a typical labour manifesto is added to Tory largesse.
And there's a problem in the US. Many Republicans are concerned that any kind of regulation is the thin end of the wedge that ends with the repeal of the Second Amendment. That's understandable.
But it also leads to a situation where even the most modest of proposals is blocked.
It's not understandable. It is the same delusional paranoia that had 17th Century New England convinced the British government was, at any moment, going to rejoin with the Papacy are enforce Catholicism as the state religion.
Either way the 3 Green MPs will back Labor so they pass the 76 threshold needed for government
The Australian Labor Party has never been particularly left-wing so having to rely on the Greens could have a significant effect on the type of administration it is. [For instance I was reading an article today that argued the Australian Labor Party was the first major Western party to embrace neo-liberalism in the 1980s under Bob Hawke].
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
Under FPTP your raw Party score isn't the most important metric. 1997 Tories 31%. Labour majority of 179. 2010 Labour 29%. Hung Parliament. I'm amazed you can't see that.
Labour still polling about 3% less than 1997 and after boundary changes still not getting a majority alone a landslide.
Don't forget 1997 only happened after Major won a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power, the only PM in the last 100 years to do so.
The odds were always Labour would win the next general election after the Tories 2019 win, however they are still far from sealing it
Since when were Labour favourites to win the next GE?
Since the day after the Tories won a 4th consecutive general election in 2019 on historical precedence
That isn't how it works.
It is, no governing party has won a 5th consecutive general election since universal suffrage in 1918
Serious point: if Labour win the next election they won't be able to increase public expenditure. We are fast approaching the outer limits of a manageable deficit. Run on pound, inflation, credit downgrading if a typical labour manifesto is added to Tory largesse.
Wealth tax, higher income tax, 300% council tax on second homes, etc etc etc....
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
So it's a good number?
I think @HYUFD is the only true Boris cheerleader on here
But Boris is rubbish, why does he have any supporters left? That yesterday was incredible “I’ve not come to offer excuses, tell more lies or filibuster very good questions you still have, but to add some context” THE OPENING LINE ITSELF WAS A LIE! 🤦♀️
If the Tories went off for a few summer months leadership contest, turned a page on this Boris disaster and refound themselves, 100% certain to finish this year in a much better place.
Today I became a statistic. I have joined an NHS waiting list. Eighteen months in my case for a cataract operation.
Have you an option to go private?
Dunno, not complaining. Just bemused. You hear so much about waiting lists that it became a bit like joining an anonymous club.
It will vary from place to place. My dad has had both done in the last 6 months, private. As he said at 82 you value the time left rather than the money...
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
RefUK still polling 3%, most of that will go back to the Conservatives and in some final polls like Mori the Tories polled under 31% in 1997.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
Under FPTP your raw Party score isn't the most important metric. 1997 Tories 31%. Labour majority of 179. 2010 Labour 29%. Hung Parliament. I'm amazed you can't see that.
Labour still polling about 3% less than 1997 and after boundary changes still not getting a majority alone a landslide.
Don't forget 1997 only happened after Major won a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power, the only PM in the last 100 years to do so.
The odds were always Labour would win the next general election after the Tories 2019 win, however they are still far from sealing it
Since when were Labour favourites to win the next GE?
Since the day after the Tories won a 4th consecutive general election in 2019 on historical precedence
That isn't how it works.
It is, no governing party has won a 5th consecutive general election since universal suffrage in 1918
But if Labour put up Corbyn on his raft of the Medusa every time it would be a doddle to win 7 or 8
Serious point: if Labour win the next election they won't be able to increase public expenditure. We are fast approaching the outer limits of a manageable deficit. Run on pound, inflation, credit downgrading if a typical labour manifesto is added to Tory largesse.
Wealth tax, higher income tax, etc etc etc....
Won't work. Higher income tax is already likely to be needed with Tory expenditure plans. Laferr curve says hello.
And there's a problem in the US. Many Republicans are concerned that any kind of regulation is the thin end of the wedge that ends with the repeal of the Second Amendment. That's understandable.
But it also leads to a situation where even the most modest of proposals is blocked.
It's not understandable. It is the same delusional paranoia that had 17th Century New England convinced the British government was, at any moment, going to rejoin with the Papacy are enforce Catholicism as the state religion.
17th century? There is one person on PB who argued this year something rather like that, in justification for keeping the C of E as the privileged State Church (as if England was a state, but never mind).
Serious point: if Labour win the next election they won't be able to increase public expenditure. We are fast approaching the outer limits of a manageable deficit. Run on pound, inflation, credit downgrading if a typical labour manifesto is added to Tory largesse.
Wealth tax, higher income tax, etc etc etc....
Won't work. Higher income tax is already likely to be needed with Tory expenditure plans. Laferr curve says hello.
Today I became a statistic. I have joined an NHS waiting list. Eighteen months in my case for a cataract operation.
Have you an option to go private?
Dunno, not complaining. Just bemused. You hear so much about waiting lists that it became a bit like joining an anonymous club.
It will vary from place to place. My dad has had both done in the last 6 months, private. As he said at 82 you value the time left rather than the money...
Problem is of course that it is a political issue. Trying to avoid discussion of any actions as it is 'too soon' is often itself a political action, and action then is the only option for those that want action, since it won't be returned to later.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
It is a political issue but what a dick to crash it like that. He could have waited.
How tactless of him to get upset about children being murdered en masse. So unseemly.
What I personally find more unseemly is that Abbot will still win, because a majority of Texans prize their guns more than their children.
Not to mention, also more than their teachers. Very selfless of you not to mention that. So I thought I'd do it for you.
Serious point: if Labour win the next election they won't be able to increase public expenditure. We are fast approaching the outer limits of a manageable deficit. Run on pound, inflation, credit downgrading if a typical labour manifesto is added to Tory largesse.
Wealth tax, higher income tax, etc etc etc....
Won't work. Higher income tax is already likely to be needed with Tory expenditure plans. Laferr curve says hello.
I am sure Labour will give it a good go.
Unfortunately you are probably right. Weimar republic says hello.
And there's a problem in the US. Many Republicans are concerned that any kind of regulation is the thin end of the wedge that ends with the repeal of the Second Amendment. That's understandable.
But it also leads to a situation where even the most modest of proposals is blocked.
It's not understandable. It is the same delusional paranoia that had 17th Century New England convinced the British government was, at any moment, going to rejoin with the Papacy are enforce Catholicism as the state religion.
TBF with Charles II and James VII and II that's not entirely surprising.
If we are headed into a recession with demand aggregation collapsing as every one draws in their spending, then giving £400 to everyone who buys electricity will not sound so bonkers.
Comments
Harriet Harman likely to take charge, as @thetimes first revealed more than a month ago
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1517462171273375745
Personally I'm surprised that the support package was quite so big as it has turned out to be. I was expecting the Government to bail out old people and leave everybody else to rot.
If they dont narrow Tories in big trouble
And there's a problem in the US. Many Republicans are concerned that any kind of regulation is the thin end of the wedge that ends with the repeal of the Second Amendment. That's understandable.
But it also leads to a situation where even the most modest of proposals is blocked.
The sick son of a bitches are the gun nuts on the podium.
Crashing a press conference like that does have a high risk of coming across as a dick move though.
https://www.theonion.com/no-way-to-prevent-this-says-only-nation-where-this-r-1819576527
Paul Waugh
@paulwaugh
·
2h
The public may well like the windfall tax U-turn, but several Tory MPs are unhappy.
One ex-minister tells me Sunak has thrown away any lingering hope of winning support from the right of the Tory party for a leadership bid: “This is just throwing soil on the coffin.”
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1529896514759405576
They deserve to be told to their faces that they are, by doing nothing, utterly complicit.
Blair was up to 20 points ahead in many pre 1997 polls eg Gallup, not just 9 points ahead even after a dreadful few days for the PM and party. I expect the extra funds for households to help with energy bills announced after this poll will also make a difference.
At the 2010 general election Labour only got 29% 13 years into government, the Tories are now already 12 years into government
I want every single Tory MP to lose. All of them. Literally nobody thinks that's going to happen.
Pretty clear who are the kn0bs here:
https://twitter.com/ddimick/status/1529651973233975306
Beto O’Rourke impolitely pointing out to the gun-lobby-beholden plutocracy that thoughts and prayers don’t cut it. Photograph by
@Reuters #photojournalism
I can see why Republicans are troubled.
1997 Tories 31%. Labour majority of 179.
2010 Labour 29%. Hung Parliament.
I'm amazed you can't see that.
After that, the Government has to decide who to let rot, who, if anyone, is deserving of hefty permanent increases in social security - and who is going to be taxed harder to pay for more benefits. That's the juncture at which a further wealth transfer from working people (including the many who are already struggling) to pensioners may occur.
Joe Locker
@JoeLocker96
#TomorrowsPapersToday
Exactly three weeks to the day crime commissioner Caroline Henry appeared in court and admitted to 5 speeding offences, she launches a new board to hold Nottinghamshire Police to account.
@AlexNorrisNN
says it shows how untenable her position is.
https://twitter.com/JoeLocker96/status/1529541414752854017
May I gently suggest that the problem is America has waited rather too long to confront this major problem, not that somebody crashed the podium to call out the acquiescence of the Governor in laws that enabled the murder of multiple children?
I wouldn't be happy with that if he'd called me that.
This is a huge promise with some saying it will cost 25 billion
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10856801/Partygate-Patrick-Kielty-tells-late-night-lock-ins-Sue-Grays-pub.html
The marginal tax rates faced by unemployed UC claimants are eye watering.
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/editorial-the-kyiv-independents-response-to-the-new-york-times-editorial-board/
The Tories could be holding up relatively well in the West Midlands but doing pretty badly in Con-LD marginals in Somerset and the SE and Con-Lab marginals in North and South like 2010 in reverse.
Spiky.
So refreshing to have a genuinely Socialist Chancellor. First in my lifetime.
...
Don't forget 1997 only happened after Major won a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power, the only PM in the last 100 years to do so.
The odds were always Labour would win the next general election after the Tories 2019 win, however they are still far from sealing it
The actor's legal costs for making the unsuccessful bid came to £116,314.55, according to court documents.
Fair comment and criticism is fine.
It's a good Corbynista package nonetheless. I always knew Sunak was a Trojan Horse Socialist.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-election-2022/
Nearly 25% of the vote has still to be counted.
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
By "it", I merely mean that he was involved in the altercation that killed her. Perhaps the element of premeditation was not there.
But many of those will end up in lawyers and accountants waiting rooms, collecting dust.
Active, actual, readership will - I suspect - be in the low thousands.
A common view, presented as realism, which would not be entirely unreasonable were it not usually presented without consideration of whether Ukraine might prefer some losses more than others.
Sympathies.
The state of the NHS is the only political talk I hear from my oldie friends.
Friday's Mail: Rishi's £21bn Splurge #TomorrowsPapersToday #DailyMail #Mail
https://t.co/e2BNFCMK9A
The next challenges are going to be Public Sector pay (good luck keeping rises to 1-2%) and tax thresholds (again, good luck keeping them frozen, though the stealth windfall for the government must help the sums work out. If they should go up by £1000 and aren't, that's £200 per taxpayer, £400 for a working couple and where have I seen £400 splashed about today?)
If the Tories went off for a few summer months leadership contest, turned a page on this Boris disaster and refound themselves, 100% certain to finish this year in a much better place.
Like 99% +.
Bet against it if you like.
Good luck.