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Polls like this make a confidence vote more likely – politicalbetting.com
Polls like this make a confidence vote more likely – politicalbetting.com
Westminster Voting Intention:LAB: 40% (+1)CON: 31% (-2)LDM: 14% (+2)GRN: 5% (=)SNP: 4% (=)RFM: 3% (-1)Via @RedfieldWilton, 25 May,Changes w/ 22 May.
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Unless he thinks you are trying to commit suicide by motorist and wants to be obliging?
I wouldn't take the risk ...
According to Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s losses “are inevitable” since the situation at the frontline remains difficult, with the signs of further escalation.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529833671183765507
I wouldn't think he is safe until after the by-elections. If the Conservatives lose those heavily, as I now expect, then he is in big trouble.
As Mike is right to remind us: the challenge to Margaret Thatcher's leadership came only a few weeks after the shock loss of the Eastbourne by-election on 18th October 1990.
Just like then, some people said she was here to stay. "For all her problems, Margaret Thatcher is still firmly in control," Claude Adams reported on The National on Nov. 7, 1990, nearly a week after Geoffrey Howe's stunning resignation on 01st November. "Nobody in the Conservative Party has the stature or the will to seriously challenge her leadership right now. The betting is that any real challenge will come after the next election."
Yet eight days later, Thatcher had a formal challenger — Michael Heseltine. The rest, as they say, is history.
From that by-election on 18th October to the Geoffrey Howe resignation on 01st November was under a fortnight.
It could be argued that the Eastbourne by-election was what cost Margaret Thatcher her premiership.
The same could be true for Boris Johnson of Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton. Red Wall / Blue Wall. If both go, he might.
We are soon gonna be asked some hard questions, maybe. How far we will go to support the Ukes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/pompeii-victim-genome-successfully-sequenced-first-time
(actually rather interesting they can do that with such cooked stuff)
If Starmer goes, after a FPN, it is difficult to know what that will happen. It will certainly overshadow everything else - good for Boris - but it will also leave Boris more exposed as a hypocrite.
Yet Labour will be in turmoil (esp if we presume that Rayner goes as well). A wildcard
Putin knows the weapons will get there, in less than a month, so he is desperate to push the story of a stalemate, to get a ceasefire he won't honor. Under that cover he will consolidate territory, continue annexation, and liquidate any resistance. He's done it before. 4/13
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1529875173859549186
If that is the case, then Starmer driving his campaign team on late into the night fuelled by a curry is also "essential" and his "duty" as leader.
It's almost like the Corbyn cult (sic).
There's only a handful of us in the rebel alliance.
Marvellous.
Say what you like about Maggie but she put heavyweights in her cabinet because she was deadly serious about governing. Johnson has never been serious in his life.
https://lumiere-a.akamaihd.net/v1/images/databank_ewok_01_169_747db03a.jpeg?region=0,0,1560,878&width=768
Hungary we all know about
Honestly Disney also own the rights to the Alien franchise, they could create the greatest crossover event since Avengers: Endgame.
And what if Starmer gets a rap on the knuckles like Cummings? That will be severely awkward but survivable. But that helps Boris
At first glance this all seems ridiculously trivial, but in fact, it isn’t. This is a proxy debate for the real debate on Were Lockdowns Justified
An analysis of fossilised faeces found near Stonehenge suggests the people who built the monument ate raw cattle organs and shared the leftovers with their dogs
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2321267-the-people-who-built-stonehenge-may-have-eaten-raw-cattle-organs/#ixzz7UQA9Etbi
I told you they were Welsh
Personally rubbish for Starmer if he has to go over this. Having hauled Labour back from La La Land, he deserves a better sendoff, at the very least. But if he goes (unlikely, but you never know), it would be with some dignity and honour.
And that would turn the spotlight back on Bozza. And if he has to be dragged out in disgrace (his chance for a dignified resignation has long gone), the next Conservative leadership election could be an utter circus.
Taking primary is the way to maximise the likelihood of being seen. And is now officially advised.
Not a safe manoeuvre when there is any serious possibility of said person driving a car having their head in their phone / child concerns / backside.
The alternative consideration is that it's safer being behind a gormless idiot, rather than in front of one.
It could be that the voting public will be reassured, or maybe it will perceive the measures as a cynical distraction.
Not sure which it will be.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/09/28/lessons-from-labours-conference-for-the-conservatives/
Majority of 17%.
Asked a very good straight, factual question of BoJo which put the failures in plain sight but was asking for a decent step forward.
Pun aside the article I read was based on IIRC 1 human and 5 dog samples.
https://www.livescience.com/stonehenge-fossilized-feces-with-parasitic-worms
I've helped the Tories gain several MPs, really proud about helping Andrea Jenkyns win her seat.
It's a shit hole.
Not going to watch it until next weekend I fear.
Match in Paris Saturday and then I'm going to binge Season 4a of Stranger Things.
"Relatively" posh bit of Stokey :-) .
(edit-A bit late. Any prizes for most popular answer?)
😀
I think he will be OK there, one of the Red Wall seats with least swing to Labour IMO.
And the rest of UK history may have worked out differently.
I normally view cycling in the gutter as more dangerous - as it closes off escape routes, and is full of crud. I would perhaps tend to take primary in the middle of the lane behind the idiot, so I cannot be hurt - but still have full control of the traffic flow behind.
Affected by things such as eg parked cars or other obstructions beyond the junction.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=31&LAB=40&LIB=14&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19&SCOTLAB=26.5&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.5&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/26/la-liga-accused-of-disrespectful-smears-after-mbappe-rejects-real-madrid?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Handbags!
I swear, ithat if that tragic situation arises again locally enough to me, that the major parties demur again and that the field looks likely to consist only of crazies, then I will stand as an Independent Moderate PPC.
I believe that that poll shows the highest margin (+23%) between the combined polling for Lab/LDs and that of the Cons of any R&W poll since the general election. If the Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections show that the Lab and LD vote shares are starting to concentrate mainly where each party has the best chance of winning, it would be folly for you to continue to judge the Conservatives' prospects based on the size of the deficit to Labour alone.
Don't look at this individual poll. Look at the trend.
Only the exact timing was in any doubt.
(Ok, probably in the extended stuff).
Just look at the council elections in his patch.
Nobody needs to win by '97 levels.
Indeed, no one else in living memory has ever done so.
You're basically saying it's a million miles from a record breaking defeat. So it's all OK.
Since the Dec 2019 election we have had two or three grey swans and a black one: Covid (the black one), Ukraine, the extent of energy price inflation, general inflation. A parliament which should have been all about post-Brexit has been about everything else.
We are barely half way through this parliament. The present moment is outrageously exceptional. I hope Labour lead the next government. Their chance of doing so (maj or min) is not much above 50%.
First Ray Liotta, now this, today's a shitty day.
Not that I'm saying it's likely.
Besides. The trend has actually been flattish.
The big changes came November to January.
They've settled at c.5% lead since. Small narrowing then a widening again. But not much really.