So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
You really are dense. Labour 9% up plus the LibDems on the march mean you're fucked.
Marvellous.
Still a hung parliament actually after the boundary changes
Don't look at this individual poll. Look at the trend.
538 has done some great analysis on "trends" in polling. Basically, outside of party primaries, the direction of polls in the last month(s) has zero predictive power. Things are as likely to reverse as they are to continue.
They could also accelerate the other way too. Not that I'm saying it's likely. Besides. The trend has actually been flattish. The big changes came November to January. They've settled at c.5% lead since. Small narrowing then a widening again. But not much really.
'"This trend of idiots running onto football pitches needs to stop sharpish!! It's only a matter of time before someone does it at Old Trafford and gets Man of The Match!"
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
You really are dense. Labour 9% up plus the LibDems on the march mean you're fucked.
Marvellous.
Still a hung parliament actually after the boundary changes
Don't look at this individual poll. Look at the trend.
538 has done some great analysis on "trends" in polling. Basically, outside of party primaries, the direction of polls in the last month(s) has zero predictive power. Things are as likely to reverse as they are to continue.
A random walk then.
Things happen. The polls change. The polls themselves don't move the polls.
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
You really are dense. Labour 9% up plus the LibDems on the march mean you're fucked.
Marvellous.
Still a hung parliament actually after the boundary changes
Don't look at this individual poll. Look at the trend.
538 has done some great analysis on "trends" in polling. Basically, outside of party primaries, the direction of polls in the last month(s) has zero predictive power. Things are as likely to reverse as they are to continue.
A random walk then.
Things happen. The polls change. The polls themselves don't move the polls.
Yes. I have never really boight into the momentum thing in polls.
The windfall tax idea is bad economics and worse politics. The government was right to ask us to vote it down before in the Commons. It will further our decline in the world tables of good places to invest.
The windfall tax idea is bad economics and worse politics. The government was right to ask us to vote it down before in the Commons. It will further our decline in the world tables of good places to invest.
I wonder what other policies have caused the decline in net foreign direct investment since its peak in [checks notes] 2016?
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
Are people suggesting a life of late night and excessive drink and coke intake perhaps isn't ideal for a long life? Doesn't bode well for our politicians!
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
You really are dense. Labour 9% up plus the LibDems on the march mean you're fucked.
Marvellous.
Still a hung parliament actually after the boundary changes
Don't look at this individual poll. Look at the trend.
538 has done some great analysis on "trends" in polling. Basically, outside of party primaries, the direction of polls in the last month(s) has zero predictive power. Things are as likely to reverse as they are to continue.
A random walk then.
Things happen. The polls change. The polls themselves don't move the polls.
Yes. I have never really boight into the momentum thing in polls.
In general it's just a version of some gambler's fallacies. If you win the last five, you will win the next one, if you won the last five you are due to lose the next etc. If there was an election next month the polls would have a lot of predictive power, but nothing assured. As TM discovered in 2017.
The number of unpredictable events from Dec 2019 until now is huge. The idea that either there aren't going to be any more, or than you can predict what the next ones will be is (largely) delusion.
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
Bollocks. He's called out the PM's bullshit in the Commons. He's one of the few, very few good guys in the back benches.
He may go down with the party at the next election, but he'd be a loss to public life.
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
Bollocks. He's called out the PM's bullshit in the Commons. He's one of the few, very few good guys in the back benches.
He may go down with the party at the next election, but he'd be a loss to public life.
"Calling out the PM's bullshit in the Commons" isn't enough. Not even close. It's now the Conservative Party in general that needs to be buried, not just Boris. For good.
An old Turkish proverb is perhaps appropriate at this juncture: "When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace becomes a circus.".
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
Not a position to encourage them to take action, if it will still not redeem them.
Nice to see you back GaryL or “TissuePrice” trying to sow discord about our glorious leader - you will have to try harder as we can sniff a Russian troll a mile off.
He must be one of the longest serving MPs now - and he's not even that old. What - 70/71?
Several of the longer serving MPs are not that old, certainly compared to some previous oldies.
Harriet Harman is third most senior and is only 71, even the Father of the House is only 77.
Liam Fox it seems is 14th or 15th most senior, and is only 60.
Between expensesgate, the Brexiteers and Corbynote purges and several brutal elections, a lot of the veterans were put out to pasture. Better than the gerontocracy across the pond, I suppose.
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
Bollocks. He's called out the PM's bullshit in the Commons. He's one of the few, very few good guys in the back benches.
He may go down with the party at the next election, but he'd be a loss to public life.
"Calling out the PM's bullshit in the Commons" isn't enough. Not even close. It's now the Conservative Party in general that needs to be buried, not just Boris. For good.
The current manifestation are not "Conservatives". In my opinion they are nearer English Nationalists, but there is nothing remotely Conservative about them.
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
Not a position to encourage them to take action, if it will still not redeem them.
I've set out what action I think is necessary, by implication. Christian Wakeford did it.
He must be one of the longest serving MPs now - and he's not even that old. What - 70/71?
Several of the longer serving MPs are not that old, certainly compared to some previous oldies.
Harriet Harman is third most senior and is only 71, even the Father of the House is only 77.
Liam Fox it seems is 14th or 15th most senior, and is only 60.
Between expensesgate, the Brexiteers and Corbynote purges and several brutal elections, a lot of the veterans were put out to pasture. Better than the gerontocracy across the pond, I suppose.
I'm still holding out hope for Jeremy Corbyn, Father of the House. That'd be hilarious.
I crunched the numbers awhile back but seem to have mislaid them, but it is a pretty youthful and inexperienced parliament - more than half elected only since 2015, a third since only 2017 (with a few returners in fairness).
Only possible reason not to ditch the 1p and the 2p, so as not to mess up the shield. Both already pointless.
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
Would anyone care to have a stab at what percentage of the population is so skint that the prospect of having all prices rounded up to the nearest 5p would cause further material damage to their finances?
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
In tactical voting scenario, the size of con to lab gap is not as an important measure as the Tory voting share.
Can Techne give Tory’s a share above 33 in the next one?
Only possible reason not to ditch the 1p and the 2p, so as not to mess up the shield. Both already pointless.
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
Would anyone care to have a stab at what percentage of the population is so skint that the prospect of having all prices rounded up to the nearest 5p would cause further material damage to their finances?
In which case there are no circumstances under which outdated coinage can be removed?
Only possible reason not to ditch the 1p and the 2p, so as not to mess up the shield. Both already pointless.
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
Would anyone care to have a stab at what percentage of the population is so skint that the prospect of having all prices rounded up to the nearest 5p would cause further material damage to their finances?
In which case there are no circumstances under which outdated coinage can be removed?
No need. Keep prices the same, add up and round at the end.
(Sentence reduced - no jail sentence, smaller fine, conviction maintained)
And still moaning about it
I did like this bit.
But prosecutor Susannah Stevens said: "What was going on between Michelle Merritt and Lester Thomas is actually unhelpful to the appellant's case because Claudia Webbe's suspicions as to all of that provide her not with a defence but with a motivation."
Personally think recall petitions should be triggered upon any conviction, since I think the public would actually be understanding in the event of relatively minor instances, but should be asked to confirm that.
(Sentence reduced - no jail sentence, smaller fine, conviction maintained)
And still moaning about it
I did like this bit.
But prosecutor Susannah Stevens said: "What was going on between Michelle Merritt and Lester Thomas is actually unhelpful to the appellant's case because Claudia Webbe's suspicions as to all of that provide her not with a defence but with a motivation."
Personally think recall petitions should be triggered upon any conviction, since I think the public would actually be understanding in the event of relatively minor instances, but should be asked to confirm that.
I guess a fixed penalty notice for a Covid offence doesn’t count? Asking for a friend...
Only possible reason not to ditch the 1p and the 2p, so as not to mess up the shield. Both already pointless.
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
Would anyone care to have a stab at what percentage of the population is so skint that the prospect of having all prices rounded up to the nearest 5p would cause further material damage to their finances?
In which case there are no circumstances under which outdated coinage can be removed?
Phasing out copper coinage is one of those issues like House of Lords reform, which is a good idea in theory but generally considered to be more trouble than it is worth in practice. Leaving some grubby round metal objects in circulation is easier than having a tedious debate over exactly how much getting rid of them will cost poor people and charities, and arguing the toss over what compensation might be needed and whether or not the Treasury is willing to shell out for it.
(Sentence reduced - no jail sentence, smaller fine, conviction maintained)
And still moaning about it
I did like this bit.
But prosecutor Susannah Stevens said: "What was going on between Michelle Merritt and Lester Thomas is actually unhelpful to the appellant's case because Claudia Webbe's suspicions as to all of that provide her not with a defence but with a motivation."
Personally think recall petitions should be triggered upon any conviction, since I think the public would actually be understanding in the event of relatively minor instances, but should be asked to confirm that.
Only possible reason not to ditch the 1p and the 2p, so as not to mess up the shield. Both already pointless.
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
Would anyone care to have a stab at what percentage of the population is so skint that the prospect of having all prices rounded up to the nearest 5p would cause further material damage to their finances?
In which case there are no circumstances under which outdated coinage can be removed?
Phasing out copper coinage is one of those issues like House of Lords reform, which is a good idea in theory but generally considered to be more trouble than it is worth in practice. Leaving some grubby round metal objects in circulation is easier than having a tedious debate over exactly how much getting rid of them will cost poor people and charities, and arguing the toss over what compensation might be needed and whether or not the Treasury is willing to shell out for it.
I help out at our local Lions Christmas collections. Back on last December after Covid induced break. We were worried about whether there would b3 any donations as we went door to door. Oddly we did well, although we think some of it may have been the emergency fiver that was lying around, rather than the bucket of change we used to get.
Only possible reason not to ditch the 1p and the 2p, so as not to mess up the shield. Both already pointless.
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
Would anyone care to have a stab at what percentage of the population is so skint that the prospect of having all prices rounded up to the nearest 5p would cause further material damage to their finances?
In which case there are no circumstances under which outdated coinage can be removed?
Need to wait until the 2030s when we join the Euro.
Only possible reason not to ditch the 1p and the 2p, so as not to mess up the shield. Both already pointless.
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
Would anyone care to have a stab at what percentage of the population is so skint that the prospect of having all prices rounded up to the nearest 5p would cause further material damage to their finances?
In which case there are no circumstances under which outdated coinage can be removed?
Phasing out copper coinage is one of those issues like House of Lords reform, which is a good idea in theory but generally considered to be more trouble than it is worth in practice. Leaving some grubby round metal objects in circulation is easier than having a tedious debate over exactly how much getting rid of them will cost poor people and charities, and arguing the toss over what compensation might be needed and whether or not the Treasury is willing to shell out for it.
Sums this government up, path of least resistance every single time.
OT. Excellent documentary on Netflix called 'The Staircase'. French documentary team with remarkable access to the trial and family of an author accused of murdering his wife.
He must be one of the longest serving MPs now - and he's not even that old. What - 70/71?
Several of the longer serving MPs are not that old, certainly compared to some previous oldies.
Harriet Harman is third most senior and is only 71, even the Father of the House is only 77.
Liam Fox it seems is 14th or 15th most senior, and is only 60.
Another thing jumps out. The median MP was elected in 2015. That's remarkably recent.
Lack of experience is not great for us all.
Reflecting:
New Lab to Tory swing in 2010. Nearly complete cull of LibDems in 2015. SNP in 2015 seats in Scotland +50 seats ish. 140 new MPs in 2019; shift of Red Wall to Tories.
OT. Excellent documentary on Netflix called 'The Staircase'. French documentary team with remarkable access to the trial and family of an author accused of murdering his wife.
"Well, you've got a much better documentary now."
I bought Petersen's book (no money goes to him). Not really about the trial, mostly a diary of how to survive prison. Very good. He did it, of course.
The chap we were discussing the other day, the one with four surnames. He doesn't like this pandering to socialists from Mr Sunak.
'Conservative MP Richard Drax told the Commons: “Can I warn (Rishi Sunak) that throwing red meat to socialists by raising taxes on businesses and telling them where to invest their money is not the Conservative way of encouraging those who create our prosperity and jobs to do just that." '
I weonder if he has shares in the Wareham and Kimmeridge oilfields?
We're nearly there, we've got the denial of serial drinking and the threats to opponents. Now all we need is for him to be involved in some dodgy tax deals and he'll be exactly like Jean Claude Juncker.
Russia is advancing a new law that will allow it to take control of local businesses of Western companies that decide to leave Russia because of the invasion of Ukraine.
The law, which could be in place within weeks, will give Russia powers to intervene where there is a threat to local jobs or industry, making it more difficult for Western companies to remove their business quickly unless they are prepared to take a big financial hit.
You're that keen to have him back on PB posting? Don't you think that's a bit selfish?
Anyone who stays in the Conservative Party right now deserves to lose. Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
Bollocks. He's called out the PM's bullshit in the Commons. He's one of the few, very few good guys in the back benches.
He may go down with the party at the next election, but he'd be a loss to public life.
"Calling out the PM's bullshit in the Commons" isn't enough. Not even close. It's now the Conservative Party in general that needs to be buried, not just Boris. For good.
That’s reminiscent of Neil Kinnock saying that Gordon Brown would “grind the Tory bastards into dust”.
The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
So... a mother in Uvalde was able to drive 40 miles, plead with police, get hand-cuffed, get uncuffed, jump the school fence, run inside and rescue her children while police sat around waiting for backup and listening to children get murdered. There's no fixing that.
So even after the Gray report Labour fails to post a lead of 10% or more and the poll was taken before the extra funds announced to help households with energy bills today
Wasn't 31% the circa 1997 Con number? Remind me, was that a good number?
Comments
Not that I'm saying it's likely.
Besides. The trend has actually been flattish.
The big changes came November to January.
They've settled at c.5% lead since. Small narrowing then a widening again. But not much really.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-61600583
Damn.
I mention this, because I think the life expectancy of rock/pop stars is meaningfully less than for the general population. For some reason.
If you arrange British coins this way you'll get a shield - It represents the Royal Coat of Arms! 🇬🇧
https://twitter.com/histories_arch/status/1523817354509320192
'"This trend of idiots running onto football pitches needs to stop sharpish!! It's only a matter of time before someone does it at Old Trafford and gets Man of The Match!"
https://youtu.be/-_3dc6X-Iwo
Don't tell me he's got his letter in, it's no longer enough for me. They can all go to hell.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1529907305042563084?s=20&t=Nal8LZjziNDKWchmAKMh_g
Pointless now. Who uses cash?
It was mind blowing.
(Seem them other times as well but this was their peak.)
The number of unpredictable events from Dec 2019 until now is huge. The idea that either there aren't going to be any more, or than you can predict what the next ones will be is (largely) delusion.
He's called out the PM's bullshit in the Commons. He's one of the few, very few good guys in the back benches.
He may go down with the party at the next election, but he'd be a loss to public life.
Amazed he's younger than Harriet Harman.
Plus rockstars who make it to 28 have a marked life expectancy boost.
Harriet Harman is third most senior and is only 71, even the Father of the House is only 77.
Liam Fox it seems is 14th or 15th most senior, and is only 60.
Have I missed where it was pointed out tactical vote team lab Lib green on 59 with both Redfield and Kantor.
That’s an awful Kantor for the Tories. I wondered where it was, I thought maybe they’d given up on trying to raise Conservative sprits once a month.
That Kantor is a poll that actually shocks me to be honest with you.
"When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king. The palace becomes a circus.".
Were people this resistant to getting rid of the ha'penny?
windfall taxtemporary targeted energy profits levy could not possibly work.The median MP was elected in 2015. That's remarkably recent.
I crunched the numbers awhile back but seem to have mislaid them, but it is a pretty youthful and inexperienced parliament - more than half elected only since 2015, a third since only 2017 (with a few returners in fairness).
Can Techne give Tory’s a share above 33 in the next one?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-61591802
(Sentence reduced - no jail sentence, smaller fine, conviction maintained)
Probably won't have changed by the next election, either.
...We need to fight back with ideas of our own....
I did like this bit.
But prosecutor Susannah Stevens said: "What was going on between Michelle Merritt and Lester Thomas is actually unhelpful to the appellant's case because Claudia Webbe's suspicions as to all of that provide her not with a defence but with a motivation."
Personally think recall petitions should be triggered upon any conviction, since I think the public would actually be understanding in the event of relatively minor instances, but should be asked to confirm that.
That will put a cat amongst the pigeons.
New Lab to Tory swing in 2010.
Nearly complete cull of LibDems in 2015.
SNP in 2015 seats in Scotland +50 seats ish.
140 new MPs in 2019; shift of Red Wall to Tories.
I bought Petersen's book (no money goes to him). Not really about the trial, mostly a diary of how to survive prison. Very good. He did it, of course.
The chap we were discussing the other day, the one with four surnames. He doesn't like this pandering to socialists from Mr Sunak.
'Conservative MP Richard Drax told the Commons: “Can I warn (Rishi Sunak) that throwing red meat to socialists by raising taxes on businesses and telling them where to invest their money is not the Conservative way of encouraging those who create our prosperity and jobs to do just that." '
I weonder if he has shares in the Wareham and Kimmeridge oilfields?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/05/25/texas_mayor_to_beto_orourke_youre_a_sick_son_of_a_bitch_to_make_school_shooting_a_political_issue.html
Tory MPs were whipped to vote against a windfall tax just a week ago
One tells me they look “like prats”
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1529791073794592768
The law, which could be in place within weeks, will give Russia powers to intervene where there is a threat to local jobs or industry, making it more difficult for Western companies to remove their business quickly unless they are prepared to take a big financial hit.
The hubris of 2007 was on another level:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Why-Germans-Do-Better-Grown-Up/dp/1786499789/
I wonder if he is planning to revise it after the last three months.
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1529897589306695680?t=THwk147jJpccKEP8z2Yy2g&s=19
So... a mother in Uvalde was able to drive 40 miles, plead with police, get hand-cuffed, get uncuffed, jump the school fence, run inside and rescue her children while police sat around waiting for backup and listening to children get murdered.
There's no fixing that.