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MRP poll finds Tories losing 256 seats facing LAB/LD/GRN pact – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    Excited for tomorrow’s Daily Mail front page, which will presumably be about absolutely anything other than the Prime Minister caught in a massive rule breaking lie
    https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1528770719169093632
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Keir Starmer with alcohol - obviously legal, campaigning was legal, why are you even talking about this?

    Boris Johnson with alcohol - outrageous, obviously a party, how dare that lying liar lie to Parliament
    Bit weak Barty. johnson has been accused of lying to parl cos that's what he did. SKS hasn't and didn't.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    It looks to me like there's food there.

    If food and alcohol is legal sustenance then what type of food and alcohol you consume is just personal preference.
    Not dinner type food but party type food. Which is why it's interesting that the faces of the others have been pixellated. Saving the nice bits for later?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Cyclefree said:

    I can't because I don't know all the facts.

    One possibility is this: the PM was at his work place.He had a reasonable excuse therefore for being away from home. Part what was happening at work was saying goodbye to a colleague. It is reasonable to consider this part of his work duties. That is what he was doing. The fact that there was drink does not change that. The rules made no mention of alcohol.

    I make no comment about how good a legal / factual analysis this is as I don't have all the facts. But I can see how this might be argued.

    It would help if the Met set out the legal / factual analysis they have used when coming to their decisions on FPNs.

    Trust you to be the one, who tries to bring facts and law into the witch hunt.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,795

    If those photos are not the end for Johnson, this country and its democracy are lost.

    I get you but I disagree. He'll likely survive this, and the full Gray report, and the Inquiry into his Lying, and whatever else, but your baleful conclusion is imo premature. The acid test is GE24. At GE19 there were respectable reasons for voting for him - Tory loyalty, Scary Jez, Brexit support, Brexit fatigue - but next time it's really only the 1st of those and therefore in any sane world where the British people have an iota of sense and sensibility he'll be gone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,179
    kle4 said:

    Because the Met are incompetent.

    Replace them with the Met Office, we might see a general improvement.
    Hard to say weather we would or not.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    You're not considering whether it is an axiom of modern UK politics. Like the straight lines in Euclidean geometry. You can't do trigonometry without the basic fact that a line is straight. And so on.
    Right.

    But if the barrier for resignation is "lying to the Commons" then if you're trying to prove someone should resign for doing so then you can't assume that your target is a lying liar. If you do, you're begging the question (in the phrase's technical sense).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    I just wrote to my MP again.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Crunch Month for Boris Johnson.

    A picture paints a thousand words and this does not look good.

    If it's followed by two by-election defeats then I think the only toast will be him.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edit
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Applicant said:

    For the second time in as many threads, no we do not and your comment is arguably actionable.

    Boris got no FPN for the event pictured therefore it does not show him doing anything illegal.
    Are you suggesting I have libelled Boris Johnson? I claim both Honest Opinion and Public Interest as my defences against the non-libel case that won't be brought against me.

    Its a pity that @GaryL got the ban hammer. Would have been interesting to read The Kremlin's spin line to defend their man.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    As a patriot who cares about this country and its democracy, I want Johnson gone immediately. As a Labour party member who wants a change of government, I'd like to see him stay on and for there to be two more years of ridiculous Tory defences of his behaviour. But, in the end, the country has to come first. He has to go.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Applicant said:

    Right.

    But if the barrier for resignation is "lying to the Commons" then if you're trying to prove someone should resign for doing so then you can't assume that your target is a lying liar. If you do, you're begging the question (in the phrase's technical sense).
    OKay. But I'm now interested in whether he had a questionnaire at all for the relevant date. I can't keep up ... does anyone know?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,554
    Worth noting of course that even if someone acts in a way which is not unlawful, it doesn't mean they might not, in a regular job, be sacked or resign.

    Of course being an MP is not a regular job, being chosen by the electorate does mean there is a certain latitude since the public might be willing to elect you despite various actions, but the principle would still work that merely 'not breaking the law' (somehow) is not the only test of whether someone should be PM.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,775
    Have I menshed how nice Sivota is? It’s so wonderfully chilled. It’s like a sleeping cat, unconsciously purring in the sun. Curled around the marina

    I may never come back to London. Fuck it
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Scott_xP said:

    Excited for tomorrow’s Daily Mail front page, which will presumably be about absolutely anything other than the Prime Minister caught in a massive rule breaking lie
    https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1528770719169093632

    That's how they're leading right now: no punches pulled.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    DavidL said:

    He or she will be thrilled, I'm asbolutely sure.
    Won't care a jot, but never hurts to let the fuckers know some people are still paying attention.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    kinabalu said:

    I get you but I disagree. He'll likely survive this, and the full Gray report, and the Inquiry into his Lying, and whatever else, but your baleful conclusion is imo premature. The acid test is GE24. At GE19 there were respectable reasons for voting for him - Tory loyalty, Scary Jez, Brexit support, Brexit fatigue - but next time it's really only the 1st of those and therefore in any sane world where the British people have an iota of sense and sensibility he'll be gone.
    "in any sane world where the British people have an iota of sense and sensibility..." what rock have you been living under? 😉
  • Starmer has never denied the gathering took place and has never lied to Parliament about it. Now do Boris Johnson.

    I don't believe Boris denied the gathering took place or lied to Parliament about it.

    He said he thought it followed the rules, which the Metropolitan Police seemed to agree with by not fining him and is precisely the same think Keir has said so 🤷‍♂️
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,554

    Amusing to see the BoJo Brigade falling over themselves yet again attempting to defend the indefensible.

    Keep it up! You ARE helping . . . just not the way you hope . . .

    Sorta like 45's helpful suggestions to Dr. Oz just now.

    Is that not sorted out yet?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 2022
    algarkirk said:

    Four reasons why the pact discussed in the article can't and won't happen.

    1) Political human nature. It is contrary to the nature of the beast. It makes little sense to Joe Public but there it is. Joe Public however understands why there isn't going to be a merger between Man Utd and Man City, even though they both play football and are both in Manchester. The same applies.

    2) Because of the risk that they do it and then lose to the Tories because the voters like the Tories better. This would be nuclear in its consequences; devastating but unknowable in magnitude. Nothing would ever be the same. Politicians don't actually like change.

    3) The most insidious of the three: because they might lose to the Tories on the ground that though voters don't like the Tories, the dislike of the pact multiplies party dislike by 3. You vote Tory because you dislike Labour OR LD OR Green. One out of three switches you to the Tories.

    4) People don't like being told what to do for their own good. As in by elections they want to decide for themselves.

    Also, as I said in the last thread when this was mentioned, by its rubric the poll assumed that voters will know the existence of the pact and the reasons for it.

    This fails to acknowledge that the vast majority of voters aren't political obsessives and for a significant chunk on them, the first they'll find out about it is when they turn up at the polling booth and the party they want to vote for isn't on the ballot paper.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    Is it because Long Island is 1,401 square miles in size while Manhattan is 22 square miles?

    (It is also worth remembering that 1.6 million people commute into Manhattan each day.)
    Pungent Pundit Alert - Portions of NYC on Long Island, namely Brooklyn & Queens, amount to just 180 square miles.

    However, your point is well taken, esp. re: commuters. Clear that BlanchL. is NOT very familiar with NYC in general or Manhattan in particular. Seeing as how many residents of latter do NOT live in skyscrapers, but in more lowly (in more ways than one) structures.

    On factor in the "rise" Manhattan, is the island's geology which provided very solid foundation for tall buildings BEFORE new technologies AND economic facilitated their construction in places with different physical circumstances.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Leon said:

    Have I menshed how nice Sivota is? It’s so wonderfully chilled. It’s like a sleeping cat, unconsciously purring in the sun. Curled around the marina

    I may never come back to London. Fuck it

    Do you really, truly, in your heart of hearts still like London? I get the blustering about it but deep down ... do you? My suspicion is that you don't?

    So why not live abroad, or spend most of your time abroad? I've done it lots in my life and they have mostly been the most exhilarating times of my life, free as you suggest from all the crappy stresses of the UK, which are only getting worse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    No 10 very disappointed in the Met for not getting to the bottom of what was going on in No 10 https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1528772419137282055
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,554

    It is not my assumption that Boris is a liar.

    Boris IS a liar. Its a fact. When you have been fired twice and the reason given both times is that you are a liar, and when you have been divorced twice for adultery (lying to your wife) and have a string of both affairs and illegitimate children littered behind you, its no longer an assumption.
    Whilst he is a proven liar it doesn't mean he lies about everything of course. But it does mean he can hardly complain if people are suspicious of everything he says.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    DavidL said:

    He or she will be thrilled, I'm asbolutely sure.
    can you write a letter full of quote tweets?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,167
    Scott_xP said:

    Reminder: Boris Johnson told parliament "the guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times [in No 10 re covid regulations]".

    There can be no doubt now that he lied. The House of Commons' Privileges Committee should deal with that urgently.


    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1528771626518683649
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1528754003416387589

    If Boris resigns during PMQs tomorrow, will the Yorkshire Party's Wakefield candidate feel free to leave the Yorkshire Party before the by-election and rejoin the Conservatives?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    I don't believe Boris denied the gathering took place or lied to Parliament about it.

    He said he thought it followed the rules, which the Metropolitan Police seemed to agree with by not fining him and is precisely the same think Keir has said so 🤷‍♂️
    But you've seen the clip - which myself and others have quoted verbatim as a reminder - where he said there was no party. And yet here he is at the party.

    You / Applicant et al may want to consider what other parties we are going to get leaked over the coming days before continuing to defend your boi. You don't want to look like a tit.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,343
    Loyalist journos don't seem happy;

    This is rather open and shut.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1528760048645701632

    If people don’t think lying to parliament matters. Or it does, but not as much as Ukraine, etc, fine. But when Boris said there were no parties, all rules were followed, and he was angry to learn about cheese and wine events, that was a bare-faced lie. So why pretend it wasn’t.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1528763419624603654

    Though it's hard to see how "Johnson lied about the parties" can be a shock to either of them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,179
    Scott_xP said:

    Won't care a jot, but never hurts to let the fuckers know some people are still paying attention.
    Whatever we think of the particular circumstance that point is indisputable Scott.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    I don't believe Boris denied the gathering took place or lied to Parliament about it.

    He said he thought it followed the rules, which the Metropolitan Police seemed to agree with by not fining him and is precisely the same think Keir has said so 🤷‍♂️

    Ha, ha - OK!

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,415
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Not dinner type food but party type food. Which is why it's interesting that the faces of the others have been pixellated. Saving the nice bits for later?
    'Party type' food is food. Its also convenient food for a buffet which is why it is used as party food in the first place, but also commonly found in workplaces.

    I've been to many a work function where "party food" was served, I never considered any of them a party. I've been to some work functions that are glorified piss ups where fancy meals are served and they're just a glorified excuse for a drinking session.

    Ironically the fancier the meal, the more alcohol is going with it, tends to be my experience. The more party style the food, the more likely it is to actually be work. That's my experience not necessarily a judgement on the photos or what is happening here.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    edited May 2022

    Thanks. So it is possible to do a judicial review of a police FPN decision?
    I don't know is the honest answer. There are two questions: who has the standing to make a claim. And what decision is being challenged - is it the finding of facts or the legal analysis? If the former, a court may not wish to interfere in a police investigation by saying that their factual findings were so wrong that they need to be told to do them again. Very hard to establish that in any case. If it's the legal analysis, who did that? The CPS? Police lawyers? Or some external counsel?

    And if those notified of fines are unhappy they can refuse to pay and then the matter gets decided by a criminal court. So a court might say that it is not for them to interfere in that process.

    The other issue - and I am sorry to keep banging on about it - is this: it is not an event which is or is not a breach of the rules but, depending on when you are talking about, whether individuals at an event - whether at work or elsewhere - had a reasonable excuse for being there. So the analysis must be done by reference to each person.

    So I think someone might well try to judicially review but whether they would succeed or on what basis is another matter.

    It would be so much better if there was an agreed chronology of all the events, names of attendees, reasons for being there, legal analysis and names of those fined and for what.

    Instead we will get all sorts of uninformed comment until something more interesting happens or we all die of boredom.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    That flows logically from your assumptions, but given that your assumption is that Boris is a lying liar then you're perilously close to circular logic.
    Gosh, i'd think twice about going mano a mano with you if I were made of straw. As I am not, it is not an axiom or assumption that Johnson is a liar, he is known on impeccable evidence to have been one for decades. Secondly the grounds for thinking he is lying now are only partly similar fact evidence, and mainly that he said X when we have lots of reasons unconnected with his veracity to believe that not-X and that he knew not-X when he said X.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,829

    I don't believe Boris denied the gathering took place or lied to Parliament about it.

    He said he thought it followed the rules, which the Metropolitan Police seemed to agree with by not fining him and is precisely the same think Keir has said so 🤷‍♂️
    Do we need a judge-led inquiry into institutional cakeism at the Met?

    image
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,622
    DavidL said:

    He or she will be thrilled, I'm asbolutely sure.
    DavidL said:

    He or she will be thrilled, I'm asbolutely sure.
    One for the round file.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,179

    can you write a letter full of quote tweets?
    I am not an expert on these matters. @Scott_xP , on the other hand...
  • But you've seen the clip - which myself and others have quoted verbatim as a reminder - where he said there was no party. And yet here he is at the party.

    You / Applicant et al may want to consider what other parties we are going to get leaked over the coming days before continuing to defend your boi. You don't want to look like a tit.
    Where is the image of him at a party?

    I see an image of him, in suit and tie, with people he was working with.

    What makes this a party and not work, whereas Starmer with alcohol is campaigning and not partying? Where's the distinction?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Precisely my point. Long Island has the space so people have spread out to live there, as they'd rather use the space than go up into the sky as GW proposes.

    Approximately as many people commute into Manhattan every day as the entire population of Manhattan (including children and pensioners) who live there. So it seems reasonable to believe that even most workers in Manhattan have chosen not to live there.
    More a matter of cost than choice. Certain key factor is NOT disinclination to live in multi-story apartment buildings.

    And idea that Brooklyn and Queens are wallowing in their spaciousness is pretty specious.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Cyclefree said:

    I don't know is the honest answer. There are two questions: who has the standing to make a claim. And what decision is being challenged - is it the finding of facts or the legal analysis? If the former, a court may not wish to interfere in a police investigation by saying that their factual findings were so wrong that they need to be told to do them again. Very hard to establish that in any case. If it's the legal analysis, who did that? The CPS? Police lawyers? Or some external counsel?

    And if those notified of fines are unhappy they can refuse to pay and then the matter gets decided by a criminal court. So a court might say that it is not for them to interfere in that process.

    The other issue - and I am sorry to keep banging on about it - is this: it is not an event which is or is not a breach of the rules but, depending on when you are talking about, whether individuals at an event - whether at work or elsewhere - had a reasonable excuse for being there. So the analysis must be done by reference to each person.

    So I think someone might well try to judicially review but whether they would succeed or on what basis is another matter.

    It would be so much better if there was an agreed chronology of all the events, names of attendees, reasons for being there, legal analysis and names of those fined and for what.

    Instead we will get all sorts of uninformed comment until something more interesting happens or we all die of boredom.
    In a sense none of this matters. However many FPNs he gets, the only mechanism for his removal, unless something novel occurs, is the body of Tory MPs. Boris won't resign. You can discuss JR till the cows come home. All it would do is give further excuse for delay.

    Tory MPs will only act if 54 of them believe:

    It serves their interest
    Boris will lose the MPs vote
    There is a better candidate who will replace him.

    All three conditions are doubtful ATM.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,179
    edited May 2022

    Do we need a judge-led inquiry into institutional cakeism at the Met?

    image
    That will do it for me. If Maugham wants to review it the Met must have got something right for once. Stopped clocks come to mind but that is pretty definitive.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    Do we need a judge-led inquiry into institutional cakeism at the Met?

    image
    As predicted by me yesterday.

    At this rate he'll be judicially reviewing Sue Gray next.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    According to this poll Stafford would go to the Greens. I find that very difficult to believe. They only got 4.6% at the last GE.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Bit weak Barty. johnson has been accused of lying to parl cos that's what he did. SKS hasn't and didn't.
    Its all circular logic though.

    Johnson has only lied to Parliament if you decide this is a party, and the only reason to decide this is a party as opposed to work (as it is for Starmer when he's photographed with colleagues, food and alcohol) is because Johnson is a liar.

    That's no better than just saying he's lying because his lips are moving. If you accept that food & alcohol = work for Starmer, then why not for Boris, other than its Boris and you've already decided that Boris is a liar?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited May 2022

    Do we need a judge-led inquiry into institutional cakeism at the Met?

    image
    A crowd funding campaign for a few more million quid incoming....
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Jo Maugham getting involved is a victory for kimonos everywhere.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    We need an anlysis of the bottles on the table; it's interesting that of the 5 bottles of wine 4 have been emptied, but the yellow label white screw top has only had 2 glasses taken out of it. I have previously noticed a correlation between yellow labels and undrinkability in cheap white wine.

    Also: with cork-closed bottles, do PBers strip the foil off or leave it on?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,373
    Applicant said:

    Exactly. No FPN = officially legal.
    Hang on: so if John is discovered shot, and the evidence suggest that Bill did it, but it's not enough to convict, then no murder took place?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,795
    edited May 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Bit weak Barty. johnson has been accused of lying to parl cos that's what he did. SKS hasn't and didn't.
    Yep. All this FPN bollocks has cluttered things up and helped out Johnson. The cops should never have got involved imo. This is a political 'hypocrisy and lying to parliament' scandal not a legal/criminal one. The offences in themselves are trivial.

    The only thing needed was the (full) Gray report to have been published promptly and compared to his statements to the House. Slam dunk verdict ensues and pre Ukraine too. Maybe just maybe Tory MPs would have ditched him if it'd panned out that way.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    rcs1000 said:

    London is low rise compared to most US or Canadian cities, or Tokyo, or Beijing, or Hong Kong.

    It is high rise relative to European peers.
    IMO low-rise usually equates to nicer places to live, and high-rise the opposite. There are a few exceptions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,179
    DavidL said:

    Hard to say weather we would or not.
    Oh come on people, did you not see what I did there? I replaced "whether" with "weather" because we were talking about the Met Office. Genius. And not a single like.

    Tough crowd PB, tough crowd.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    algarkirk said:

    In a sense none of this matters. However many FPNs he gets, the only mechanism for his removal, unless something novel occurs, is the body of Tory MPs. Boris won't resign. You can discuss JR till the cows come home. All it would do is give further excuse for delay.

    Tory MPs will only act if 54 of them believe:

    It serves their interest
    Boris will lose the MPs vote
    There is a better candidate who will replace him.

    All three conditions are doubtful ATM.


    Agreed. It won't be Partygate which will do for him. But the by-elections if they are very bad. And maybe not even then.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    DavidL said:

    Oh come on people, did you not see what I did there? I replaced "whether" with "weather" because we were talking about the Met Office. Genius. And not a single like.

    Tough crowd PB, tough crowd.
    I gave you a like.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Its all circular logic though.

    Johnson has only lied to Parliament if you decide this is a party, and the only reason to decide this is a party as opposed to work (as it is for Starmer when he's photographed with colleagues, food and alcohol) is because Johnson is a liar.

    That's no better than just saying he's lying because his lips are moving. If you accept that food & alcohol = work for Starmer, then why not for Boris, other than its Boris and you've already decided that Boris is a liar?
    There's alcohol and alcohol, apart from anything. Working supper with beer or still wine just about credible, working supper with fizz and gin, not.

    also what sort of party has half bottles of gin at it? Shirley these are aimed at the student and broke alcoholic markets?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Its all circular logic though.

    Johnson has only lied to Parliament if you decide this is a party, and the only reason to decide this is a party as opposed to work (as it is for Starmer when he's photographed with colleagues, food and alcohol) is because Johnson is a liar.

    That's no better than just saying he's lying because his lips are moving. If you accept that food & alcohol = work for Starmer, then why not for Boris, other than its Boris and you've already decided that Boris is a liar?

    It was clearly deemed a party by the Met because people were fined for attending it.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,373

    Precisely my point. Long Island has the space so people have spread out to live there, as they'd rather use the space than go up into the sky as GW proposes.

    Approximately as many people commute into Manhattan every day as the entire population of Manhattan (including children and pensioners) who live there. So it seems reasonable to believe that even most workers in Manhattan have chosen not to live there.
    Surely "have chosen" need to be caveated by "cannot afford to"?

    The price per square foot in Manhattan is off the charts - perhaps $2,500/square foot (and that's just for apartments; for brownstones it's probably going to be even higher), while in Queen's, prices are going to be dramatically less. And if you head out to Riverhead, I reckon you can get a place for no more than $300/square foot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,795
    IshmaelZ said:

    We need an anlysis of the bottles on the table; it's interesting that of the 5 bottles of wine 4 have been emptied, but the yellow label white screw top has only had 2 glasses taken out of it. I have previously noticed a correlation between yellow labels and undrinkability in cheap white wine.

    Also: with cork-closed bottles, do PBers strip the foil off or leave it on?

    OFF.

    Which I enjoy doing.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Hang on: so if John is discovered shot, and the evidence suggest that Bill did it, but it's not enough to convict, then no murder took place?
    If the Police say that John was an intruder threatening to kill Bill and his loved ones and that Bill did so in self defence and it was lawful then yes that's not a murder is it?

    If Starmer/Boris were investigated and it's determined to be work not partying then it's lawful isn't it? For both.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    So…how many more pics are there?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,373
    IshmaelZ said:

    We need an anlysis of the bottles on the table; it's interesting that of the 5 bottles of wine 4 have been emptied, but the yellow label white screw top has only had 2 glasses taken out of it. I have previously noticed a correlation between yellow labels and undrinkability in cheap white wine.

    Also: with cork-closed bottles, do PBers strip the foil off or leave it on?

    I'm fairly sure some incredibly expensive (and great) White Burgundy comes with yellow labels.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    You can also add the Met to that very long list of people and institutions that Boris Johnson has come into contact with and totally destroyed.

    The Met have authority over everyone including Johnson so I don't know what their excuse is for not allegedly properly holding him to account.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    rcs1000 said:

    Hang on: so if John is discovered shot, and the evidence suggest that Bill did it, but it's not enough to convict, then no murder took place?
    If there's no conviction then, officially, Bill is not a murderer.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    DavidL said:

    Oh come on people, did you not see what I did there? I replaced "whether" with "weather" because we were talking about the Met Office. Genius. And not a single like.

    Tough crowd PB, tough crowd.
    I was still reeling from ‘asbolutely’.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    OFF.

    Which I enjoy doing.
    Agreed, I like how it rolls up if you go bottom to top with a sharp knife.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    It was clearly deemed a party by the Met because people were fined for attending it.

    It was clearly deemed a gathering which some people did not have any reasonable excuse for participating in.

    Not necessarily a party. Unless only "parties" were outlawed by the regulations (hint: this is not true)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,795
    DavidL said:

    Oh come on people, did you not see what I did there? I replaced "whether" with "weather" because we were talking about the Met Office. Genius. And not a single like.

    Tough crowd PB, tough crowd.
    Sometimes you can fly too high for your audience. I know the feeling well.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Are you suggesting I have libelled Boris Johnson? I claim both Honest Opinion and Public Interest as my defences against the non-libel case that won't be brought against me.

    Its a pity that @GaryL got the ban hammer. Would have been interesting to read The Kremlin's spin line to defend their man.
    Oh. Why did he get banned? That's a shame.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,359

    A crowd funding campaign for a few more million quid incoming....
    This morning I mentioned that crowd-funded campaigns are a good target for influence by Russians - perhaps without the recipient even realising.

    This is a case in point.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,373
    Applicant said:

    If there's no conviction then, officially, Bill is not a murderer.
    I don't believe one would say "well, given the lack of a conviction, Bill's actions were officially legal". One might say "he's been found not guilty, and that should be the end of it", but unless one were high of rather strong hallucinogens, I don't think you would use the phrase "officially legal".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    If there's no conviction then, officially, Bill is not a murderer.
    I don't know what "officially" means here, but it has nothing to do with any concept of English law. You seem to think you live in a police state, and to be blissfully happy about it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm fairly sure some incredibly expensive (and great) White Burgundy comes with yellow labels.
    Many white Burgundies have yellow labels as you say. However it does look like that is a screwtop. Not to say that there aren't great producers of white Burgundy with screwtops (Jean-Marie Guffens-Heynen, for example, but with cream labels) but I'm guessing it was an M&S Macon or similar.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,373

    If the Police say that John was an intruder threatening to kill Bill and his loved ones and that Bill did so in self defence and it was lawful then yes that's not a murder is it?

    If Starmer/Boris were investigated and it's determined to be work not partying then it's lawful isn't it? For both.
    I have no opinions on either Boris or Keir, I am just taking issue with @Applicant's characterisation.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't believe one would say "well, given the lack of a conviction, Bill's actions were officially legal". One might say "he's been found not guilty, and that should be the end of it", but unless one were high of rather strong hallucinogens, I don't think you would use the phrase "officially legal".
    It depends what Bill's defence was. If it was self-defence, then yes, I think I would.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited May 2022

    This morning I mentioned that crowd-funded campaigns are a good target for influence by Russians - perhaps without the recipient even realising.

    This is a case in point.
    It would be quite funny in a way if Steve Bray had taken donations that had ultimately come from the Russians.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    IshmaelZ said:

    Agreed, I like how it rolls up if you go bottom to top with a sharp knife.
    More foils than you think will come off with a firm twist rather than risking impaling yourself with a knife. Otherwise those foil cutters are quite useful.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    IshmaelZ said:

    I don't know what "officially" means here, but it has nothing to do with any concept of English law. You seem to think you live in a police state, and to be blissfully happy about it.
    Perhaps "lawful" or "not illegal" are more accurate terms than "legal", but I erred on the side of simplicity.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,021
    Sky suggesting to Thangam Debbonaire that the cabinet office, the police and Sue Gray have all seen these photos and as the PM has not been fined for this event it would wise to wait for the context

    She went on to question did he lie intentionally or unintentionally

    I did not know you could lie unintentionally
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,795
    rcs1000 said:

    Surely "have chosen" need to be caveated by "cannot afford to"?

    The price per square foot in Manhattan is off the charts - perhaps $2,500/square foot (and that's just for apartments; for brownstones it's probably going to be even higher), while in Queen's, prices are going to be dramatically less. And if you head out to Riverhead, I reckon you can get a place for no more than $300/square foot.
    "Good" London is £2k per square foot now. And most of "Fairly Good" London has broken the £1k mark.

    I'm deep in this atm as a prospective buyer. The market is very hot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,857
    Boris may have raised the glass... but as long as he didn't swallow it's OK! :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    I can't see anything wrong with @Cyclefree's explanation which would certainly be likely to avoid sanction. Is probably not unadjacent to what actually happened, either.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    Is that not sorted out yet?
    Hell no. As of right now, Dr Oz is ahead by just +1,060 votes out of over 1.3m counted so far in GOP US Senate primary.

    Still votes to count, for example from overseas military - a group that McCormick campaign specifically worked, and which 45 would like to see disenfranchised apparently.

    PLUS a federal court has just ruled - in a complete different PA election - that returned absentees that lack a date provided by voter BUT which are postmarked as timely should be counted.

    Naturally the McCormick campaign is arguing that his ruling should also apply to current situation. Which would appear to benefit McC who in leading in vote-by-mail ballots tallied so far.

    Sorry IF you've got a bet riding on this. But getting the election count CORRECT "Trumps" getting it yesterday, if not sooner.

    You may note that the count is also NOT finished yet in Australia? Where Anthony Albanese has been named "intermim" Prime Minister. As right now Labor is 3 seats short of a majority in new House of Representatives, with nine seats still up for grabs. Question is, can Labor form a majority government OR minority govt OR maybe a coalition (or whatever) with some of the now numerous "Teal" Independents?

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Applicant said:

    Perhaps "lawful" or "not illegal" are more accurate terms than "legal", but I erred on the side of simplicity.
    It means nothing of the sort. Lots of illegal things do not result in police charges but are still illegal. Some of the most common reasons:

    Not reported
    Suspect not found
    Lack of sufficient evidence
    Not in the public interest
    Not a police priority
    The police committed the crime!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Sky suggesting to Thangam Debbonaire that the cabinet office, the police and Sue Gray have all seen these photos and as the PM has not been fined for this event it would wise to wait for the context

    She went on to question did he lie intentionally or unintentionally

    I did not know you could lie unintentionally

    Journalism at its worst. Again.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    A crowd funding campaign for a few more million quid incoming....
    And destined to be wasted like all his other campaigns...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    edited May 2022

    Might have to be one of those ‘Michael Green’ days for Shappsy tomorrow.


    the only person having a worse day is Douglas Ross...
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Sky suggesting to Thangam Debbonaire that the cabinet office, the police and Sue Gray have all seen these photos and as the PM has not been fined for this event it would wise to wait for the context

    She went on to question did he lie intentionally or unintentionally

    I did not know you could lie unintentionally

    Merriam-Webster defines a lie as: an assertion of something known or believed by the speaker or writer to be untrue with intent to deceive

    The reason I have from day one been sceptical about the focus on what he said to the Commons is that I can't see that you can prove, even based on the evidence we have today, that he "knew or believed it to be untrue".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,373
    Andy_JS said:

    IMO low-rise usually equates to nicer places to live, and high-rise the opposite. There are a few exceptions.
    Different people value different things.

    That's what makes the world great. On this board, most people prefer low rise, gardens, etc.

    But I'm much more of an urban bod, and would rather be on the 32nd floor of a tower block in Manhattan or in the Barbican than in a three bedroom semi with a garden in Muswell Hill.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    Boris Johnson said repeatedly that he knew nothing about law-breaking – there’s no doubt now, he lied.

    The Prime Minister has demeaned his office.

    He made the rules, and then broke them. The British people deserve better.

    #SueGrayReport

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1528760511768190977
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,857
    On topic - Looks extremely outlandish to me but who knows...

    Mind you, when Labour have the landslide majroity gifted to them by the Libs and Greens and then inevitably betray them the fall out would be spectacular... ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    DavidL said:

    Oh come on people, did you not see what I did there? I replaced "whether" with "weather" because we were talking about the Met Office. Genius. And not a single like.

    Tough crowd PB, tough crowd.
    If you're explaining, you're losing.
    :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,373
    kinabalu said:

    "Good" London is £2k per square foot now. And most of "Fairly Good" London has broken the £1k mark.

    I'm deep in this atm as a prospective buyer. The market is very hot.
    I would be very nervous about jumping into London residential right now, given the rapidly slowing economy. (And I speak as an owner!)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,021
    TOPPING said:

    I can't see anything wrong with @Cyclefree's explanation which would certainly be likely to avoid sanction. Is probably not unadjacent to what actually happened, either.

    As is so often the case @Cyclefree provides an apolitical response and most certainly Boris attendence was deemed part of his work and for the same reason I expect Starmer will be cleared, though maybe not the other attendees who may well be sanctioned as they were not working
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    TOPPING said:

    Many white Burgundies have yellow labels as you say. However it does look like that is a screwtop. Not to say that there aren't great producers of white Burgundy with screwtops (Jean-Marie Guffens-Heynen, for example, but with cream labels) but I'm guessing it was an M&S Macon or similar.
    OH GOD.

    I have just seen the full picture and hence the whole bottle topped in yellow. Please let it be known that I absolutely and wholly retract my assumption that it was an M&S macon or somesuch. No way - it wasn't a burgundy with that shaped bottle - looks like something far cheaper, probably not from France. Supermarket chain cheapo white plonk.

    Dear god help us.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,021
    Cyclefree said:

    At the risk of sounding unbelievably arrogant, if I had done this investigation, we would not be in this mess.
    Of that I am certain
This discussion has been closed.