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MRP poll finds Tories losing 256 seats facing LAB/LD/GRN pact – politicalbetting.com
MRP poll finds Tories losing 256 seats facing LAB/LD/GRN pact – politicalbetting.com
Cambridge mathematician and creator of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, has produced an extraordinary 16k sample that seeks to assess what would happen if LAB, the LDs and the Greens entered into an electoral pact whereby only one of them would field candidates in each seat at a general election. The broad results are in the panel above.
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https://twitter.com/MirrorBreaking_/status/1528759605232295937
I would like to thank Boris Johnson for his hard work.
Not a chance.
It's "how likely is the publicity round this poll to force die-hard local activists to stop posturing, and accept that some version of such a pact WILL ensure the Tories get chucked out?"
In my (allegedly safe Tory) constituency, there's no doubt a clear majority of voters would support one ABC (anything But Conservative) candidate. But there's still no sign of any sanity hitting a hard core of deranged activists in all three ABC parties - who behave as if Johnson was actually paying them to secure his future
I think you do Mr Smithson!
If so, we could be in for a more entertaining and more democratic time again, much like December and January.
Speaking under privilege in the House of Commons, Mr Johnson replied: "No. But I’m sure that, whatever happened, the guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-bombshell-photos-show-boris-27044271
Dunno why itv think they have to obfuscate other attenders
Why is Carrie in a strategy session?
If people don’t think lying to parliament matters. Or it does, but not as much as Ukraine, etc, fine. But when Boris said there were no parties, all rules were followed, and he was angry to learn about cheese and wine events, that was a bare-faced lie. So why pretend it wasn’t.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1528763419624603654
That was a lie as the photograph now shows.
Does that mean
There was no party....or...
He could not tell us whether there was a party or not.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_and_structures_in_London
Tory MPs have decided they want him to be their leader for GE 2024, mainly, I think, because they can't see an alternative.
It means nothing, not enough people care and it isn't exciting enough an image to set pulses racing again, but it is worth emphasising every time just how dumb he is claiming to be in order to deny that he lied to the House.
He won’t go though.
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1528761200128974850
Interestingly it would appear the first batch of donations were overwhelmingly for 'defence and demining', to the exent nothing much could be done with anything else, like infrastructure.
https://u24.gov.ua/
While I'm sure that there may be some informal local alliances, there simply won't be any formal agreement, because any formal agreement literally destroys the smaller party.
1) political effects of the pictures: the political damage of partygate is already substantial but a series of pictures could reignite it all it again and yield yet more with the public.
2) Parliament: the biggest immediate danger to Johnson is the charge he has misled Parliament which pictures/Sue Gray could add more credence to. Things looked stable last week. Don’t believe it. This could still quickly deteriorate.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1528766927346225152
At least it is obvious to every man and his dog that Johnson was lying his tits off. Exactly how the Met came to decide that every piss-up he was involved with as we will see from Sue Grey was strictly necessary for work except ten min thing with a cake is completely obscured.
Just as if Keir says all rules were followed and drinking alcohol with others was work for him, he's not lying if he means it.
You need to be consistent. Anyone who says that one is a party and the other isn't is just a partisan shill and not being consistent.
Replace them with the Met Office, we might see a general improvement.
Putting things very bluntly, what will absolutely fuck him is the string of lies to Parliament. Not only did Allegra Stratton describe this kind of thing and get angrily fired for doing so, Bonzo told everyone he too was very upset.
As he told the Commons: “I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no Covid rules were broken”. Now a provable lie as here he is at the very same party. No "its only a cake" excuses here. He was there. At a party. Then said "I have been told there was no party".
Liar. Resign. (he won't, but now we have to watch "I'll say anything for money" Tory MPs soil themselves on TV trying to claim otherwise)
For the small minority who want high rise, good luck to them, they should be able to get it. For everyone else, they should be able to get what they want too.
Most New Yorkers live in Long Island not Manhattan for a reason.
The leaked snaps show the PM giving a toast to Lee Cain at his leaving do on November 13, behind a table-full of wine, gin and fizz. The photo itself is hardly a Great Gatsby-level party, however it’s the straight-up denial of any party on that date given in the Commons six months ago that may prove tricky to navigate...He will no doubt try to argue leaving drinks are not a party. What the Standards Committee will make of that argument remains to be seen…
Lie after lie. He knows there was at least one party. He was there. And we now have the proof.
Campaigning events were legal in April 2021.
Working in person if required (like in Downing Street) was equally legal in November 2020.
If being there for work (campaigning) makes alcohol (Starmer) legal then how is that any different to being there for work (Downing Street) makes alcohol (Johnson) legal?
You keep trying to claim Keir's beer is campaigning, but the Downing Street stuff is a party. What is the distinction though, other than the fact you don't like Boris?
If Boris didn't think that was a party and thought it was work, as Keir thought [and you still think] Keir drinking was work, then how is it a lie? How are you objectively drawing a distinction between Keir and Boris when both people are simply photographed drinking with people they were legally allowed to work with, but while socialisation was illegal for both.
One possibility is this: the PM was at his work place.He had a reasonable excuse therefore for being away from home. Part what was happening at work was saying goodbye to a colleague. It is reasonable to consider this part of his work duties. That is what he was doing. The fact that there was drink does not change that. The rules made no mention of alcohol.
I make no comment about how good a legal / factual analysis this is as I don't have all the facts. But I can see how this might be argued.
It would help if the Met set out the legal / factual analysis they have used when coming to their decisions on FPNs.
- Boris has not been fined for attending any party
- Anything that Boris attended that was a party was officially legal for him
And therefore, him saying there weren't any (illegal) parties is not a provable lie.Although Starmer is now only 2% ahead of Johnson as best PM with Johnson leading on the two COVID categories vs Starmer.
The PM will say that the Met has investigated and their decision should be respected. The Met meanwhile will say ..... well what?
Meanwhile I fully expect someone like that Jolyon character to try and judicially review the Met's decision not to fine.
So on it goes."
and my answer upthread.
Both sides happy with their incumbent opponent.
It is high rise relative to European peers.
They didn't investigate it. They covered it up. Fine a load of junior staff. Protect the PM and the senior Civil Servants. The establishment looks after its own.
Keep it up! You ARE helping . . . just not the way you hope . . .
Sorta like 45's helpful suggestions to Dr. Oz just now.
(It is also worth remembering that 1.6 million people commute into Manhattan each day.)
Boris Johnson with alcohol - outrageous, obviously a party, how dare that lying liar lie to Parliament
I assume we can now expect a week of Hate Mail front pages demanding the police investigate this clear lack of justice.
So what do we expect from the Wail on tomorrow's front page to deflect away from this? KEIR'S TRANS WOKE THREAT TO YOUR WIFE AND DAUGHTER?
Approximately as many people commute into Manhattan every day as the entire population of Manhattan (including children and pensioners) who live there. So it seems reasonable to believe that even most workers in Manhattan have chosen not to live there.
There can be no doubt now that he lied. The House of Commons' Privileges Committee should deal with that urgently.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1528771626518683649
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1528754003416387589
Boris got no FPN for the event pictured therefore it does not show him doing anything illegal.
the photo of Boris Johnson with several colleagues and empty wine bottles during lockdown raises serious questions for Keir Starmer...
https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1528771696425152512
If food and alcohol is legal sustenance then what type of food and alcohol you consume is just personal preference.
Anyway, London's high rise for Europe, with only Moscow having more towers higher than 150 metres.
Boris IS a liar. Its a fact. When you have been fired twice and the reason given both times is that you are a liar, and when you have been divorced twice for adultery (lying to your wife) and have a string of both affairs and illegitimate children littered behind you, its no longer an assumption.