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Punters think Johnson will survive the by-elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    ping said:

    Guido Fawkes.

    That is all.

    So you are saying that Twitter got it wrong? Well blow me down with a feather.
    Or should that have been.. *innocent face*?
    Yes, Guido appears to have it nailed. Very pointed choice of photo, too.

    Not a great place for a by-election for any of the opposition parties.
    Though if that is the constituency, it was Labour in 1997.

    I don't know the area so not sure what if any demographic changes have happened since then.
    There's actually a case in some seats for saying that tactical voting is inappropriate and people should just vote for whoever they prefer. But I'd expect Labour to lay claim to tactical support in this place, whenever an election should occur - we got a decent 32% in 2017, though it dropped to 27% last time (LibDems on 6%, Greens on 3%. Wikipedia says "Although the constituency includes the middle-income Romford Garden Suburb area, ex-council housing forms a substantial part of the constituency, largely bought under the Right to Buy and the borough has a high level of households with vehicle ownership".

    There are a lot of "ifs" before any by-election.
    With the greatest respect. You're straying close to the wire there.
    Please don't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    What will "do" for Boris Johnson will be polling showing an alternative candidate doing substantially better and likely to ensure a re-election for the Conservative Party in 2024.

    The Prime Minister survives because, as someone once said "there is no alternative". In June 2019, Boris won because, alone among the leadership contenders, he could see off Farage and the BXP and win a majority for the Conservatives which is what happened.

    If a poll showed Ben Wallace or Liz Truss doing significantly better, the backbenchers in the marginals would trigger a challenge out of self-preservation.

    Well, Boris has played a blinder in ensuring that there isn't a viable alternative. Becuase, after all, that does strengthen his position.

    The next interesting question is whether there comes a point where the Conservative party thinks "Screw this, anyone, anything, would be better than this. Disinterring Edward Heath and letting his skeleton take us back into Europe would be an improvement."

    We're clearly not there yet. But under this management? With 2.5 years until the next GE?

    Remember, the Conservative party has two modes. Complacency and Pure, Blind Panic.
    I don't know - the question is whether the problem is the leader or the Party. This is complicated because we're not sure the extent to which those who voted for Boris Johnson as Conservative leader would support any successor. Does Boris, to paraphrase a famous commercial, reach parts of the electorate no other Conservative can reach?

    If the Conservative Brand is tainted beyond repair by what Johnson, Sunak, Hancock and others have done, it'll make little or no difference - the electorate will deliver the coup de grace and Johnson's life expectancy as Tory leader can be measured in hours. That at least will offer a defeated Party the luxury to re-group and re-think in Opposition after 14 years in Government which may be no bad thing.
    I think the problem is he alienates many and attracts many. That is always so for every Party leader.
    But the numbers for the Big Dog are quite exceptionally large. And really visceral.
    There are lifelong Tories who won't vote for them while he's in charge.
    Whereas there are others who will vote Boris but never for a generic Tory.
    There are posters on here who provide both examples.
    The trouble is weighing them. And all the others in between. This is why I can't make any call on the next GE whatsoever. And am sceptical of those on both sides who claim to.
    The variables are simply too wide. And that's before we consider the economy, scandal, the psychological aftershocks of pandemic, War.
    Some politicians are very successful by being deeply divisive.
    Not great for the countries they play around in, of course.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    After BBC radio and TV presenters, is being a Tory MP next highest chance of being a sex offender?

    British Asians?
    Sounds like you need more of those diversity officers at your workplace, not fewer.
    Of course, one of those convicted ticks both boxes...

    A churlish comment, I admit, but Labour would be foolish to play this card.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    After BBC radio and TV presenters, is being a Tory MP next highest chance of being a sex offender?

    British Asians?
    Sounds like you need more of those diversity officers at your workplace, not fewer.
    Of course, one of those convicted ticks both boxes...

    A churlish comment, I admit, but Labour would be foolish to play this card.
    It plays itself, doesn't it?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    ping said:

    Guido Fawkes.

    That is all.

    So you are saying that Twitter got it wrong? Well blow me down with a feather.
    Or should that have been.. *innocent face*?
    Yes, Guido appears to have it nailed. Very pointed choice of photo, too.

    Not a great place for a by-election for any of the opposition parties.
    Though if that is the constituency, it was Labour in 1997.

    I don't know the area so not sure what if any demographic changes have happened since then.
    There's actually a case in some seats for saying that tactical voting is inappropriate and people should just vote for whoever they prefer. But I'd expect Labour to lay claim to tactical support in this place, whenever an election should occur - we got a decent 32% in 2017, though it dropped to 27% last time (LibDems on 6%, Greens on 3%. Wikipedia says "Although the constituency includes the middle-income Romford Garden Suburb area, ex-council housing forms a substantial part of the constituency, largely bought under the Right to Buy and the borough has a high level of households with vehicle ownership".

    There are a lot of "ifs" before any by-election.
    I know the area quite well, Nick, and agree with your assessment.

    I can't see the LDs getting anywhere there, ever. Labour might, given a fair wind, but it's a tough ask.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    On a cheerier note, I have just spent an irritating 15 minutes trying to book tickets on Lancashire's website for Lancashire against 'Birmingham' in the T20 this summer (irritatingly, we manage to miss almost all the other games at Old Trafford by going on a week's holiday, but never mind). £13 for a family of five! plus booking fee, the calculation of which was opaque. But still only £20 all in. And forty more balls than the hundred, and frankly, a less ugly experience. Very much looking forward to it.
    The booking process may have been laborious, but I was pleased to receive a confirmation email entitled 'Dear Sir'. Pleasingly formal in this increasingly informal world.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited May 2022
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    What will "do" for Boris Johnson will be polling showing an alternative candidate doing substantially better and likely to ensure a re-election for the Conservative Party in 2024.

    The Prime Minister survives because, as someone once said "there is no alternative". In June 2019, Boris won because, alone among the leadership contenders, he could see off Farage and the BXP and win a majority for the Conservatives which is what happened.

    If a poll showed Ben Wallace or Liz Truss doing significantly better, the backbenchers in the marginals would trigger a challenge out of self-preservation.

    Well, Boris has played a blinder in ensuring that there isn't a viable alternative. Becuase, after all, that does strengthen his position.

    The next interesting question is whether there comes a point where the Conservative party thinks "Screw this, anyone, anything, would be better than this. Disinterring Edward Heath and letting his skeleton take us back into Europe would be an improvement."

    We're clearly not there yet. But under this management? With 2.5 years until the next GE?

    Remember, the Conservative party has two modes. Complacency and Pure, Blind Panic.
    I don't know - the question is whether the problem is the leader or the Party. This is complicated because we're not sure the extent to which those who voted for Boris Johnson as Conservative leader would support any successor. Does Boris, to paraphrase a famous commercial, reach parts of the electorate no other Conservative can reach?

    If the Conservative Brand is tainted beyond repair by what Johnson, Sunak, Hancock and others have done, it'll make little or no difference - the electorate will deliver the coup de grace and Johnson's life expectancy as Tory leader can be measured in hours. That at least will offer a defeated Party the luxury to re-group and re-think in Opposition after 14 years in Government which may be no bad thing.
    I think the problem is he alienates many and attracts many. That is always so for every Party leader.
    But the numbers for the Big Dog are quite exceptionally large. And really visceral.
    There are lifelong Tories who won't vote for them while he's in charge.
    Whereas there are others who will vote Boris but never for a generic Tory.
    There are posters on here who provide both examples.
    The trouble is weighing them. And all the others in between. This is why I can't make any call on the next GE whatsoever. And am sceptical of those on both sides who claim to.
    The variables are simply too wide. And that's before we consider the economy, scandal, the psychological aftershocks of pandemic, War.
    Some politicians are very successful by being deeply divisive.
    Not great for the countries they play around in, of course.
    Well indeed. I'm trying to look at it dispassionately though.
    And I'm one too. I am very unlikely to ever vote Tory. But I'd prefer the current one to all the others. If he could wave his hands and make the country more equal and content I think he probably would. Anything for an easy life.
    The others just didn't give a toss.
    The fact he's spectacularly incompetent is a mere bagatelle. So were the rest.

    Edit. These words are regarding the PM. Not the Tory Party.
    They are same same.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    After BBC radio and TV presenters, is being a Tory MP next highest chance of being a sex offender?

    British Asians?
    Sounds like you need more of those diversity officers at your workplace, not fewer.
    Of course, one of those convicted ticks both boxes...

    A churlish comment, I admit, but Labour would be foolish to play this card.
    Nothing to do with Labour. You linked 'sex offenders' to 'British Asians', which I thought was pretty offensive. If you were referring to a specific subset, namely a number of male grooming gangs largely of Pakistani heritage, then you should have said so.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Wasn't there some Tory MP in Lancashire who went through 18 months of hell on an accustaion of this sort, which turned out to be false/malicious/unfounded?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    HYUFD said:


    Roy Morgan also has Labor and the Coalition tied on the primary vote on 34% each, Resolve has the Coalition ahead now 34% to 31% for Labor.

    The new Essential poll also has Labor's 2PP lead slashed to 51% to 49%, which could be enough on its own for the Coalition to be re elected if the marginals go the right way with the Coalition leading 36% to 35% for Labor on the primary vote.

    All have Morrison ahead of Albanese as preferred PM

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/essential-poll-labor-remains-in-lead-but-race-tightens-after-liberal-party-election-campaign-launch

    I think "slashed" is overcooking it somewhat. The poll mentioned in the Guardian is very similar to the poll from the end of last month which also had a 49-45 Labor lead with 6% undecided. The changes are all within margin of error.

    Those supportive of the Coalition are talking up Morrison's relaunch last Sunday as some great turning point and the Resolve poll (which may or may not be an outlier) has helped that but the older Newspoll and Ray Morgan polls still show Labor ahead.

    After what happened last time, of course, the pollsters have made changes but may still be underestimating the Coalition vote. The truth is it's the same old story - will enough younger voters (under 55) turn out to overcome the Coalition's lead among older voters who, as we know, are more likely to vote?

    As for the preferred PM numbers, nothing too spectacular - 43-40 to Morrison is pretty typical. Only Ipsos which in its last poll showed Labor ahead 57-43 on 2nd Preference, has had Albanese ahead. We should have another Ipsos poll before polling day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    After BBC radio and TV presenters, is being a Tory MP next highest chance of being a sex offender?

    British Asians?
    Sounds like you need more of those diversity officers at your workplace, not fewer.
    Of course, one of those convicted ticks both boxes...

    A churlish comment, I admit, but Labour would be foolish to play this card.
    Nothing to do with Labour. You linked 'sex offenders' to 'British Asians', which I thought was pretty offensive. If you were referring to a specific subset, namely a number of male grooming gangs largely of Pakistani heritage, then you should have said so.
    Ha! I deliberately didn’t do that because whilst most are of Pakistani heritage, they aren’t all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Wasn't there some Tory MP in Lancashire who went through 18 months of hell on an accustaion of this sort, which turned out to be false/malicious/unfounded?
    Yep, Nigel Evans.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    After BBC radio and TV presenters, is being a Tory MP next highest chance of being a sex offender?

    British Asians?
    Sounds like you need more of those diversity officers at your workplace, not fewer.
    Of course, one of those convicted ticks both boxes...

    A churlish comment, I admit, but Labour would be foolish to play this card.
    Nothing to do with Labour. You linked 'sex offenders' to 'British Asians', which I thought was pretty offensive. If you were referring to a specific subset, namely a number of male grooming gangs largely of Pakistani heritage, then you should have said so.
    Ha! I deliberately didn’t do that because whilst most are of Pakistani heritage, they aren’t all.
    Ha - that's why I used the word 'largely'. So you decided just to lump them all together and label "British Asians" as sex offenders. Terrific stuff. Who needs equality and diversity officers, eh?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited May 2022
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Roy Morgan also has Labor and the Coalition tied on the primary vote on 34% each, Resolve has the Coalition ahead now 34% to 31% for Labor.

    The new Essential poll also has Labor's 2PP lead slashed to 51% to 49%, which could be enough on its own for the Coalition to be re elected if the marginals go the right way with the Coalition leading 36% to 35% for Labor on the primary vote.

    All have Morrison ahead of Albanese as preferred PM

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/essential-poll-labor-remains-in-lead-but-race-tightens-after-liberal-party-election-campaign-launch

    I think "slashed" is overcooking it somewhat. The poll mentioned in the Guardian is very similar to the poll from the end of last month which also had a 49-45 Labor lead with 6% undecided. The changes are all within margin of error.

    Those supportive of the Coalition are talking up Morrison's relaunch last Sunday as some great turning point and the Resolve poll (which may or may not be an outlier) has helped that but the older Newspoll and Ray Morgan polls still show Labor ahead.

    After what happened last time, of course, the pollsters have made changes but may still be underestimating the Coalition vote. The truth is it's the same old story - will enough younger voters (under 55) turn out to overcome the Coalition's lead among older voters who, as we know, are more likely to vote?

    As for the preferred PM numbers, nothing too spectacular - 43-40 to Morrison is pretty typical. Only Ipsos which in its last poll showed Labor ahead 57-43 on 2nd Preference, has had Albanese ahead. We should have another Ipsos poll before polling day.
    The latest polls now have it at least as close at this stage as in 2019 and the polls giving a Labor lead then were wrong, Morrison was re elected as the preferred PM polls were right.

    Roy Morgan was the most inaccurate pollster in 2019, Essential and Newspoll more accurate, albeit also wrong. A new Newspoll is due out before polling day too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Wasn't there some Tory MP in Lancashire who went through 18 months of hell on an accustaion of this sort, which turned out to be false/malicious/unfounded?
    Nigel Evans
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Wasn't there some Tory MP in Lancashire who went through 18 months of hell on an accustaion of this sort, which turned out to be false/malicious/unfounded?
    Well, not quite. His defence was that the sex was consensual and that he was too drunk to remember sticking his hand down 2 other mens trousers.

    BBC News - MP Nigel Evans cleared of sexual assaults
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-26974975
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Wasn't there some Tory MP in Lancashire who went through 18 months of hell on an accustaion of this sort, which turned out to be false/malicious/unfounded?
    Yep, Nigel Evans.
    Indeed. Which is why everyone wants to know who it is for our personal prurient joy, it doesn't make him guilty. At all.
    Speculation on a by-election isn't kind or clever really.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    What will "do" for Boris Johnson will be polling showing an alternative candidate doing substantially better and likely to ensure a re-election for the Conservative Party in 2024.

    The Prime Minister survives because, as someone once said "there is no alternative". In June 2019, Boris won because, alone among the leadership contenders, he could see off Farage and the BXP and win a majority for the Conservatives which is what happened.

    If a poll showed Ben Wallace or Liz Truss doing significantly better, the backbenchers in the marginals would trigger a challenge out of self-preservation.

    Well, Boris has played a blinder in ensuring that there isn't a viable alternative. Becuase, after all, that does strengthen his position.

    The next interesting question is whether there comes a point where the Conservative party thinks "Screw this, anyone, anything, would be better than this. Disinterring Edward Heath and letting his skeleton take us back into Europe would be an improvement."

    We're clearly not there yet. But under this management? With 2.5 years until the next GE?

    Remember, the Conservative party has two modes. Complacency and Pure, Blind Panic.
    I don't know - the question is whether the problem is the leader or the Party. This is complicated because we're not sure the extent to which those who voted for Boris Johnson as Conservative leader would support any successor. Does Boris, to paraphrase a famous commercial, reach parts of the electorate no other Conservative can reach?

    If the Conservative Brand is tainted beyond repair by what Johnson, Sunak, Hancock and others have done, it'll make little or no difference - the electorate will deliver the coup de grace and Johnson's life expectancy as Tory leader can be measured in hours. That at least will offer a defeated Party the luxury to re-group and re-think in Opposition after 14 years in Government which may be no bad thing.
    I think the problem is he alienates many and attracts many. That is always so for every Party leader.
    But the numbers for the Big Dog are quite exceptionally large. And really visceral.
    There are lifelong Tories who won't vote for them while he's in charge.
    Whereas there are others who will vote Boris but never for a generic Tory.
    There are posters on here who provide both examples.
    The trouble is weighing them. And all the others in between. This is why I can't make any call on the next GE whatsoever. And am sceptical of those on both sides who claim to.
    The variables are simply too wide. And that's before we consider the economy, scandal, the psychological aftershocks of pandemic, War.
    Some politicians are very successful by being deeply divisive.
    Not great for the countries they play around in, of course.
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    What will "do" for Boris Johnson will be polling showing an alternative candidate doing substantially better and likely to ensure a re-election for the Conservative Party in 2024.

    The Prime Minister survives because, as someone once said "there is no alternative". In June 2019, Boris won because, alone among the leadership contenders, he could see off Farage and the BXP and win a majority for the Conservatives which is what happened.

    If a poll showed Ben Wallace or Liz Truss doing significantly better, the backbenchers in the marginals would trigger a challenge out of self-preservation.

    Well, Boris has played a blinder in ensuring that there isn't a viable alternative. Becuase, after all, that does strengthen his position.

    The next interesting question is whether there comes a point where the Conservative party thinks "Screw this, anyone, anything, would be better than this. Disinterring Edward Heath and letting his skeleton take us back into Europe would be an improvement."

    We're clearly not there yet. But under this management? With 2.5 years until the next GE?

    Remember, the Conservative party has two modes. Complacency and Pure, Blind Panic.
    I don't know - the question is whether the problem is the leader or the Party. This is complicated because we're not sure the extent to which those who voted for Boris Johnson as Conservative leader would support any successor. Does Boris, to paraphrase a famous commercial, reach parts of the electorate no other Conservative can reach?

    If the Conservative Brand is tainted beyond repair by what Johnson, Sunak, Hancock and others have done, it'll make little or no difference - the electorate will deliver the coup de grace and Johnson's life expectancy as Tory leader can be measured in hours. That at least will offer a defeated Party the luxury to re-group and re-think in Opposition after 14 years in Government which may be no bad thing.
    I think the problem is he alienates many and attracts many. That is always so for every Party leader.
    But the numbers for the Big Dog are quite exceptionally large. And really visceral.
    There are lifelong Tories who won't vote for them while he's in charge.
    Whereas there are others who will vote Boris but never for a generic Tory.
    There are posters on here who provide both examples.
    The trouble is weighing them. And all the others in between. This is why I can't make any call on the next GE whatsoever. And am sceptical of those on both sides who claim to.
    The variables are simply too wide. And that's before we consider the economy, scandal, the psychological aftershocks of pandemic, War.
    Some politicians are very successful by being deeply divisive.
    Not great for the countries they play around in, of course.
    Though a cosy consensuality in which the prevailing orthodoxy is never challenged is also not great.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Roy Morgan also has Labor and the Coalition tied on the primary vote on 34% each, Resolve has the Coalition ahead now 34% to 31% for Labor.

    The new Essential poll also has Labor's 2PP lead slashed to 51% to 49%, which could be enough on its own for the Coalition to be re elected if the marginals go the right way with the Coalition leading 36% to 35% for Labor on the primary vote.

    All have Morrison ahead of Albanese as preferred PM

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/essential-poll-labor-remains-in-lead-but-race-tightens-after-liberal-party-election-campaign-launch

    I think "slashed" is overcooking it somewhat. The poll mentioned in the Guardian is very similar to the poll from the end of last month which also had a 49-45 Labor lead with 6% undecided. The changes are all within margin of error.

    Those supportive of the Coalition are talking up Morrison's relaunch last Sunday as some great turning point and the Resolve poll (which may or may not be an outlier) has helped that but the older Newspoll and Ray Morgan polls still show Labor ahead.

    After what happened last time, of course, the pollsters have made changes but may still be underestimating the Coalition vote. The truth is it's the same old story - will enough younger voters (under 55) turn out to overcome the Coalition's lead among older voters who, as we know, are more likely to vote?

    As for the preferred PM numbers, nothing too spectacular - 43-40 to Morrison is pretty typical. Only Ipsos which in its last poll showed Labor ahead 57-43 on 2nd Preference, has had Albanese ahead. We should have another Ipsos poll before polling day.
    The latest polls now have it at least as close at this stage as in 2019 and the polls giving a Labor lead then were wrong, Morrison was re elected as the preferred PM polls were right.

    Roy Morgan was the most inaccurate pollster in 2019, Essential and Newspoll the most accurate, albeit also wrong. A new Newspoll is due out before polling day too
    You're assuming that the pollsters haven't adjusted for last time.
    It's all to play for.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Or just smear millions of Brits, eh?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Roy Morgan also has Labor and the Coalition tied on the primary vote on 34% each, Resolve has the Coalition ahead now 34% to 31% for Labor.

    The new Essential poll also has Labor's 2PP lead slashed to 51% to 49%, which could be enough on its own for the Coalition to be re elected if the marginals go the right way with the Coalition leading 36% to 35% for Labor on the primary vote.

    All have Morrison ahead of Albanese as preferred PM

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/essential-poll-labor-remains-in-lead-but-race-tightens-after-liberal-party-election-campaign-launch

    I think "slashed" is overcooking it somewhat. The poll mentioned in the Guardian is very similar to the poll from the end of last month which also had a 49-45 Labor lead with 6% undecided. The changes are all within margin of error.

    Those supportive of the Coalition are talking up Morrison's relaunch last Sunday as some great turning point and the Resolve poll (which may or may not be an outlier) has helped that but the older Newspoll and Ray Morgan polls still show Labor ahead.

    After what happened last time, of course, the pollsters have made changes but may still be underestimating the Coalition vote. The truth is it's the same old story - will enough younger voters (under 55) turn out to overcome the Coalition's lead among older voters who, as we know, are more likely to vote?

    As for the preferred PM numbers, nothing too spectacular - 43-40 to Morrison is pretty typical. Only Ipsos which in its last poll showed Labor ahead 57-43 on 2nd Preference, has had Albanese ahead. We should have another Ipsos poll before polling day.
    The latest polls now have it at least as close at this stage as in 2019 and the polls giving a Labor lead then were wrong, Morrison was re elected as the preferred PM polls were right.

    Roy Morgan was the most inaccurate pollster in 2019, Essential and Newspoll the most accurate, albeit also wrong. A new Newspoll is due out before polling day too
    You're assuming that the pollsters haven't adjusted for last time.
    It's all to play for.
    They can't have adjusted that much as they have Morrison still ahead as preferred PM and the Coalition now generally ahead on primary vote but Labor still ahead on 2PP, all as in 2019. It was the latter which was wrong and will likely be wrong again
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    After BBC radio and TV presenters, is being a Tory MP next highest chance of being a sex offender?

    British Asians?
    Sounds like you need more of those diversity officers at your workplace, not fewer.
    Of course, one of those convicted ticks both boxes...

    A churlish comment, I admit, but Labour would be foolish to play this card.
    Nothing to do with Labour. You linked 'sex offenders' to 'British Asians', which I thought was pretty offensive. If you were referring to a specific subset, namely a number of male grooming gangs largely of Pakistani heritage, then you should have said so.
    Ha! I deliberately didn’t do that because whilst most are of Pakistani heritage, they aren’t all.
    Ha - that's why I used the word 'largely'. So you decided just to lump them all together and label "British Asians" as sex offenders. Terrific stuff. Who needs equality and diversity officers, eh?
    And Foxy did that to Tory MPs.

    Never mind, good night all.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Roy Morgan also has Labor and the Coalition tied on the primary vote on 34% each, Resolve has the Coalition ahead now 34% to 31% for Labor.

    The new Essential poll also has Labor's 2PP lead slashed to 51% to 49%, which could be enough on its own for the Coalition to be re elected if the marginals go the right way with the Coalition leading 36% to 35% for Labor on the primary vote.

    All have Morrison ahead of Albanese as preferred PM

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/essential-poll-labor-remains-in-lead-but-race-tightens-after-liberal-party-election-campaign-launch

    I think "slashed" is overcooking it somewhat. The poll mentioned in the Guardian is very similar to the poll from the end of last month which also had a 49-45 Labor lead with 6% undecided. The changes are all within margin of error.

    Those supportive of the Coalition are talking up Morrison's relaunch last Sunday as some great turning point and the Resolve poll (which may or may not be an outlier) has helped that but the older Newspoll and Ray Morgan polls still show Labor ahead.

    After what happened last time, of course, the pollsters have made changes but may still be underestimating the Coalition vote. The truth is it's the same old story - will enough younger voters (under 55) turn out to overcome the Coalition's lead among older voters who, as we know, are more likely to vote?

    As for the preferred PM numbers, nothing too spectacular - 43-40 to Morrison is pretty typical. Only Ipsos which in its last poll showed Labor ahead 57-43 on 2nd Preference, has had Albanese ahead. We should have another Ipsos poll before polling day.
    The latest polls now have it at least as close at this stage as in 2019 and the polls giving a Labor lead then were wrong, Morrison was re elected as the preferred PM polls were right.

    Roy Morgan was the most inaccurate pollster in 2019, Essential and Newspoll the most accurate, albeit also wrong. A new Newspoll is due out before polling day too
    You're assuming that the pollsters haven't adjusted for last time.
    It's all to play for.
    They can't have adjusted that much as they have Morrison still ahead as preferred PM and the Coalition now generally ahead on primary vote but Labor still ahead on 2PP, all as in 2019. It was the latter which was wrong and will likely be wrong again
    We'll see. You're probably right. But it isn't a certainty at all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Or just smear millions of Brits, eh?
    Or 350 MPs. Much more personal, particularly when you consider one was murdered not so long ago.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Or just smear millions of Brits, eh?
    Or 350 MPs. Much more personal, particularly when you consider one was murdered not so long ago.
    If that was your point you could have made it. Foxy making a comment about Tory MPs does not justify blatant racism from you.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Or just smear millions of Brits, eh?
    Or 350 MPs. Much more personal, particularly when you consider one was murdered not so long ago.
    If that was your point you could have made it. Foxy making a comment about Tory MPs does not justify blatant racism from you.
    I’m not having that. The vast vast vast majority of British Asians are, like any other group, not sex offenders.

    However, the number of cases of grooming gangs does suggest a specific issue among some communities. And lefties saying “that’s racist” are why many cases went ignored for so long.

    I apologise for biting on Foxy’s comment. The BBC reference clearly meant it wasn’t to be taken too seriously.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Or just smear millions of Brits, eh?
    Or 350 MPs. Much more personal, particularly when you consider one was murdered not so long ago.
    If that was your point you could have made it. Foxy making a comment about Tory MPs does not justify blatant racism from you.
    I’m not having that. The vast vast vast majority of British Asians are, like any other group, not sex offenders.

    However, the number of cases of grooming gangs does suggest a specific issue among some communities. And lefties saying “that’s racist” are why many cases went ignored for so long.

    I apologise for biting on Foxy’s comment. The BBC reference clearly meant it wasn’t to be taken too seriously.
    I am not a lefty. Saying there is a problem with a particular grooming gang is not racist. Associating all British Asians with rape is racist. It is not complicated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    36s
    Top scoop from
    @NatashaC
    : Labour preparing for 20 police questionnaires… first there were 6 .. then 15 … now:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    And remember, people, innocent until proven guilty etc etc

    Or just smear millions of Brits, eh?
    Or 350 MPs. Much more personal, particularly when you consider one was murdered not so long ago.
    If that was your point you could have made it. Foxy making a comment about Tory MPs does not justify blatant racism from you.
    I’m not having that. The vast vast vast majority of British Asians are, like any other group, not sex offenders.

    However, the number of cases of grooming gangs does suggest a specific issue among some communities. And lefties saying “that’s racist” are why many cases went ignored for so long.

    I apologise for biting on Foxy’s comment. The BBC reference clearly meant it wasn’t to be taken too seriously.
    I am not a lefty. Saying there is a problem with a particular grooming gang is not racist. Associating all British Asians with rape is racist. It is not complicated.
    Foxy said: After BBC radio and TV presenters, is being a Tory MP next highest chance of being a sex offender?

    So no, I wasn’t associating all British Asians with rape just as Foxy didn’t do that to Tory MPs.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339


    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    36s
    Top scoop from
    @NatashaC
    : Labour preparing for 20 police questionnaires… first there were 6 .. then 15 … now:

    I hope they aren’t “preparing”! That’s an offence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Boris Johnson will overtake Gordon Brown’s tenure in office in a few weeks’ time, and looks certain to overtake Theresa May later this summer.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Boris Johnson will overtake Gordon Brown’s tenure in office in a few weeks’ time, and looks certain to overtake Theresa May later this summer.

    It’s hard to think he’s been PM for nearly three years. The pandemic and those lockdowns has done funny things to my sense of time.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    Boris Johnson will overtake Gordon Brown’s tenure in office in a few weeks’ time, and looks certain to overtake Theresa May later this summer.

    Three worst PMs of the last 50 years.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Boris Johnson will overtake Gordon Brown’s tenure in office in a few weeks’ time, and looks certain to overtake Theresa May later this summer.

    There's a big gap between The Early Of Derby (26) and Sir Robert Peel (25) that I think Boris could slot into nicely if he loses the election in 2024.

    If he wins the election he'll start rapidly ascending up the top 20...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris Johnson will overtake Gordon Brown’s tenure in office in a few weeks’ time, and looks certain to overtake Theresa May later this summer.

    There's a big gap between The Early Of Derby (26) and Sir Robert Peel (25) that I think Boris could slot into nicely if he loses the election in 2024.

    If he wins the election he'll start rapidly ascending up the top 20...
    Yes, for some reason no PM who has managed to get to 4 years has failed to get to at least 5 years.

    Salisbury is the one that surprises me every time - it wasn't that long ago, he was a contemporary of Gladstone and served longer than him, but if I hadn't read about him very recently I'd have known nothing whatsoever of him.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    After BBC radio and TV presenters, is being a Tory MP next highest chance of being a sex offender?

    British Asians?
    Sounds like you need more of those diversity officers at your workplace, not fewer.
    Of course, one of those convicted ticks both boxes...

    A churlish comment, I admit, but Labour would be foolish to play this card.
    Nothing to do with Labour. You linked 'sex offenders' to 'British Asians', which I thought was pretty offensive. If you were referring to a specific subset, namely a number of male grooming gangs largely of Pakistani heritage, then you should have said so.
    A Home Office report in 2020 found that the majority of child sexual abuse gangs are made up of white men under the age of 30, although the Home Secretary was concerned that the research was limited and the data gathering was poor . What I don't know is the breakdown of abusers when adjusted for racial group sizes - i.e. Pakistani heritage Britons are about 2% of the population - what fraction are they of confirmed UK sex offenders?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    North Carolina Primary - 11th Congressional District - Republican - estimated 64% reported

    Chuck Edwards
    21,382 35.2%
    Madison Cawthorn*
    18,566 30.6%
    Matthew Burril
    5,515 9.1%
    Rod Honeycutt
    4,072 6.7%
    Bruce O'Connell
    3,884 6.4%
    Wendy Nevarez
    3,267 5.4%
    Michele Woodhouse
    3,137 5.2%
    Kristie Sluder
    912 1.5%
    Total reported
    60,735

    Here is vote by county, from largest to smallest

    Candidate CE MC MB counted % left to count
    Henderson 44% 24% 11% 13,374 70% 6,000
    Buncombe 38 21 9 12,584 50% 12,000
    Macon 33 36 7 5,777 >95% <1,000
    Cherokee 22 46 4 5,703 >95% <1,000
    Transylvania 50 25 6 5,087 >95% <1,000
    Haywood 27 29 10 3,496 47% 4,000
    McDowell 24 36 24 3,287 51% 3,000
    Polk 38 39 6 2,508 84% <1,000
    Yancey 28 41 7 2,183 73% 1,000
    Graham 20 42 11 1,538 93% <1,000
    Rutherford 27 45 8 1,531 46% 2,000
    Madison 27 33 11 1,527 68% 1,000
    Jackson 25 37 8 1,389 40% 2,000
    Clay 27 44 4 1,227 49% 1,000
    Swain 33 36 10 481 32% 1,000

    Based on above, appears to me that Madison Cawthorne will NOT be nominated, instead GOP nominee will be Chuck Edwards.

    BTW, under NC state law, candidate only needs 30% or more to avoid runoff.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Evening all.

    Behind the scenes we have a Republican Primary in Pennsylvania. (We also have a Dem one, but the candidates are so BORING, it hardly bears mentioning.)

    In PA, we have:

    Dr Oz, a TV doctor who until he was running for the Republican nomination appeared to be very pro-Choice. Trump has endorsed Dr Oz. (Dr Oz is also a Turkish citizen. But let's leave that for now.)

    Dave McCormick, who runs one of the world's largest hedge funds, is richer than God, and more boring than a night in a lift with IDS. He has spend absurd amounts of money painting Dr Oz as further left that AOX.

    Kathy Barnette, who is madder than a box of frogs. She contends that Presidential election was stolen, and that if she fails to win the Republican Primary, then that is proof that that too is crooked. She's too cuckoo even for Trump.

    With 11% reported it's (roughly): 32% for the boring but sane man, 26% for the pro-Choice TV doctor, and 21% for the loon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited May 2022
    Also... it looks like Madison Cawthorn is going DOWN.

    With 74% reported, he trails Chuck Edwards 34% to 31%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    Also... it looks like Madison Cawthorn is going DOWN.

    With 74% reported, he trails Chuck Edwards 34% to 31%.

    The gap is closing, mind. Down to just 2.4%, with 25% remaining. Probably too much for Cawthorn to overcome, but he might just sneak over the line.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also... it looks like Madison Cawthorn is going DOWN.

    With 74% reported, he trails Chuck Edwards 34% to 31%.

    The gap is closing, mind. Down to just 2.4%, with 25% remaining. Probably too much for Cawthorn to overcome, but he might just sneak over the line.
    Gap down to 2.3% with 20% remaining. Probably too big a gap for the (Trump supported) Cawthorn.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    rcs1000 said:

    Evening all.

    Behind the scenes we have a Republican Primary in Pennsylvania. (We also have a Dem one, but the candidates are so BORING, it hardly bears mentioning.)

    In PA, we have:

    Dr Oz, a TV doctor who until he was running for the Republican nomination appeared to be very pro-Choice. Trump has endorsed Dr Oz. (Dr Oz is also a Turkish citizen. But let's leave that for now.)

    Dave McCormick, who runs one of the world's largest hedge funds, is richer than God, and more boring than a night in a lift with IDS. He has spend absurd amounts of money painting Dr Oz as further left that AOX.

    Kathy Barnette, who is madder than a box of frogs. She contends that Presidential election was stolen, and that if she fails to win the Republican Primary, then that is proof that that too is crooked. She's too cuckoo even for Trump.

    With 11% reported it's (roughly): 32% for the boring but sane man, 26% for the pro-Choice TV doctor, and 21% for the loon.

    According to NYT, these early-reported votes were virtually all absentees. Nate Cohn saying it will be different picture when the election day vote starts coming in.

    Note that a ballot printing snafu in Lancaster County (very GOP) means that about 2/3 of all ballot cast will need to be recopied onto replacement ballots before they can be tabulated. SO if statewide result is close, might be a while before the outcome is known.

    Anyone wanna take bets on someone - perhaps 45 himself - alleging this is a conspiracy?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also... it looks like Madison Cawthorn is going DOWN.

    With 74% reported, he trails Chuck Edwards 34% to 31%.

    The gap is closing, mind. Down to just 2.4%, with 25% remaining. Probably too much for Cawthorn to overcome, but he might just sneak over the line.
    Gap down to 2.3% with 20% remaining. Probably too big a gap for the (Trump supported) Cawthorn.
    Now just 2.0%, with 14% remaining.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also... it looks like Madison Cawthorn is going DOWN.

    With 74% reported, he trails Chuck Edwards 34% to 31%.

    The gap is closing, mind. Down to just 2.4%, with 25% remaining. Probably too much for Cawthorn to overcome, but he might just sneak over the line.
    Gap down to 2.3% with 20% remaining. Probably too big a gap for the (Trump supported) Cawthorn.
    Now just 2.0%, with 14% remaining.
    Back out to 2.1% with just 11% remaining.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also... it looks like Madison Cawthorn is going DOWN.

    With 74% reported, he trails Chuck Edwards 34% to 31%.

    The gap is closing, mind. Down to just 2.4%, with 25% remaining. Probably too much for Cawthorn to overcome, but he might just sneak over the line.
    Cawthorne will need to improve on his performance so far in two largest counties (where he's losing badly to Chuck Edwards) to prevail, gonna be tough.

    BTW, Buncombe County (Ashville) is source of the word "bunk" in the sense of "history is bunk", etc. etc.

    Back in early 1800s a congressman from Buncombe Co became so famous for his long-winded, fatuous, frequently wrong-headed orations, that people took to calling suchlike "buncombe" as in, "that's a lot of buncombe". Over time the final sylable got dropped.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also... it looks like Madison Cawthorn is going DOWN.

    With 74% reported, he trails Chuck Edwards 34% to 31%.

    The gap is closing, mind. Down to just 2.4%, with 25% remaining. Probably too much for Cawthorn to overcome, but he might just sneak over the line.
    Cawthorne will need to improve on his performance so far in two largest counties (where he's losing badly to Chuck Edwards) to prevail, gonna be tough.

    BTW, Buncombe County (Ashville) is source of the word "bunk" in the sense of "history is bunk", etc. etc.

    Back in early 1800s a congressman from Buncombe Co became so famous for his long-winded, fatuous, frequently wrong-headed orations, that people took to calling suchlike "buncombe" as in, "that's a lot of buncombe". Over time the final sylable got dropped.
    On the positive side, Madison Cawthorn will be able to use his time out of the spotlight to come out of the closet.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    AP calls PA Democratic US Senate primary for current Lt. Gov John Fetterman over current congressman Conor Lamb.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also... it looks like Madison Cawthorn is going DOWN.

    With 74% reported, he trails Chuck Edwards 34% to 31%.

    The gap is closing, mind. Down to just 2.4%, with 25% remaining. Probably too much for Cawthorn to overcome, but he might just sneak over the line.
    Cawthorne will need to improve on his performance so far in two largest counties (where he's losing badly to Chuck Edwards) to prevail, gonna be tough.

    BTW, Buncombe County (Ashville) is source of the word "bunk" in the sense of "history is bunk", etc. etc.

    Back in early 1800s a congressman from Buncombe Co became so famous for his long-winded, fatuous, frequently wrong-headed orations, that people took to calling suchlike "buncombe" as in, "that's a lot of buncombe". Over time the final sylable got dropped.
    On the positive side, Madison Cawthorn will be able to use his time out of the spotlight to come out of the closet.
    It is - of course - worth noting that getting just 31% in your own party's primary when running for reelection is pretty disastrous.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Pennsylvania Primary 2022

    Very interesting results tonight from the Keystone State with close to 2/3 of estimated votes counted.

    US Senate - open seat now held by Republican

    In Democratic primary, Lt Gov. John Fetterman sweeps to victory over Congressman Conor Lamb and State Rep. Malcoln Kenyatta. Fetterman, who suffered a stroke yesterday, is taking every county so far and currently has 60% versus Lamb 27%, Kenyatta 9% and Alex Khalil 4%

    In Republican Primary, hedgefunder David McCormick now has 32%, tv Dr Mehmet Oz has 31, rightwing commentator Kathy Barnette has 24 and four also-rans collectively have 9%.

    Oz and to lesser extent Barnette have been going up as more EDay vote is counted. Statewide pattern is interesting:
    > McCormick is leading in Alleghany Co (Pittsburgh) and most of it's environs, and also carrying Dauphin (Harrisburg), Centre (State College) and most of rest of upper Susquehanna area, relatively more prosperous than next zone.
    < Dr. Oz is ahead in most of northeastern PA around Scranton (Joe Biden homeland) also in Altona & Johnstown as well as Erie, in other words rust belts, also in Philadelphia
    > Barnette is in front in a few scattered rural counties, but also in some larger ones such as Lancaster & Berks (Reading)
    > Southeastern PA is emerging as the schwerpunkt of this election, right now split between all three top tier candidates, with McCormick ahead in Chester & Delaware, Oz in Philadelphia & Bucks, and Barnette in Montgomery.

    My own guess is that Oz will end up winning. IF he doesn't reason will be Barnette, who's too far back to win herself BUT who MAY help McCormick squeek through.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Pennsylvania Primary 2022 - Governor

    In PA GOP primary, winner is Trump endorsed state senator Douglas Mastriano, a leader in effort to throw Keystone State's electoral votes to candidate who lost Keystone State in 2020. With 86% of estimated vote reported, Mastriano's currently got 47% versus two rivals.

    In Democratic primay, only candidate who filed was state attorney general Josh Shapiro, who conventional wisdom says is likely to be elected governor in November regardless of what happens in the US Senate race.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Australia, as they say in US racing, is going right down to the wire.

    One or two on here writing off Labor though even the Resolve poll still gives the two-party vote to Labor 51-49.

    The collapse of the Aussie duopoly to 65% is extraordinary - even Resolve has 6% voting Independent and 4% Other along with 14% Green, 6% for One Nation and 4% for United Australia.

    Last time 75% voted Coalition or Labor.

    The older Newspoll and Ray Morgan polls better for Labor with a clear two-party lead (53-47 and 54-46 respectively). The question is whether Resolve has spotted a trend of Labor's vote weakening or whether it is an outlier - we'll know by Saturday afternoon (UK).

    Roy Morgan also has Labor and the Coalition tied on the primary vote on 34% each, Resolve has the Coalition ahead now 34% to 31% for Labor.

    The new Essential poll also has Labor's 2PP lead slashed to 51% to 49%, which could be enough on its own for the Coalition to be re elected if the marginals go the right way with the Coalition leading 36% to 35% for Labor on the primary vote.

    All have Morrison ahead of Albanese as preferred PM

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/essential-poll-labor-remains-in-lead-but-race-tightens-after-liberal-party-election-campaign-launch

    I am not hitting quote and replying. Some don’t like me at all commenting on the Australian election - what they don’t understand I have likely lost a bet placed months ago, when the gap was so big I thought it was sure thing, I have been monitoring polls several times a week for months - looking at newspaper front pages too - and looking through the Aussie Cousin of PB Stodge linked, and they seemed to think Labour would win about a week ago.

    I can’t believe the direction of travel in the polling here since, especially over this last week. I feel dismay in my gut! 😫

    It should teach me that, even with large and consistent poll leads a couple of months out, there’s no such thing as a sure thing, once a election is called shy voters have to come off the fence, is the only way I can explain it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    PA GOP US Sen race tight as a tick. McCormick leading Oz by less than 3k votes out of over 1m counted, with 89% reported. Right now within mandatory recount range as per state law.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022
    The New York Times have run a story suggesting the Tory party have taken more iffy rubles.

    The New York Times (NYT) said it had reviewed documents linked to the donation, which was recorded as £450,000 by the party, and said it originated in a Russian account of Sir Ehud’s father-in-law, Sergei Kopytov. The NYT said Barclays bank, in an alert sent to the National Crime Agency in 2021, identified with “considerable certainty” Mr Kopytov to have been the “true source of the donation”.

    But the Electoral Commission, the ones whose own investigation dropped Boris into wallpaper gate cash for access problems, are okay with this donation and not investigating, despite noise Labour are making about it.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2022-05-17/labour-calls-for-tory-probe-over-donation-with-possible-links-to-putin-associate

    Before I was born was politics always like this - both sides incessantly encouraging police and other bodies to investigate the other for wrong doing? Or is it a new thing?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    There’s a particular story on front of every paper, but even so, Truss announcement, which seemed a big moment to me, doesn’t feature at all, not even much on the websites. Odd? 🤔
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    AP declares Chuck Edwards winner over incumbent 11th distict congressmand Madison Cawthorne in today's NC GOP primary.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    In PA GOP US Senate race, with est. 92% reported

    Dave McCormick
    372,422 31.2%
    Mehmet Oz
    371,654 31.1%
    Kathy Barnette
    295,360 24.7%
    plus also rans
    total counted
    1,193.629

    NOTE there are three counties with sizeable numbers of votes left to count

    > Bucks (north Philly burbs) = 26k left to count, currently McCormick 27% versus Oz 30% with Barnette 32%

    > Delaware (southwest Philly burbs) = 28k left to count, now McCormick 30% vs Oz 28% w Barnette 20%

    > Franklin (Chambersburg, south central PA) = 10k left to count, now McCormick 24 v Oz 30 w Barnette 30

    On balance would appear to slightly favor McCormick HOWEVER still thousands of votes left to count in the commonweath'other 64 counties, so clearly way too close to call. And could well stay that way for days or even weeks, just have to let the votes get counted, remaining issues processed, and everything checked, almost certainly including full recount (not sure if by machine OR hand).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    On topic, 2023 is still the value here.

    It could well be that Johnson gets the 54 votes against him this summer, but I’m still far from convinced that there’s the 180 votes in place to actually oust him. Same as with Mrs May in December 2018, at a time when she had lost her majority and was utterly failing to get her major policy through the Commons.

    So summer 2022 he survives, and summer 2023 he goes - unless somehow there’s good economic news on the horizon and he’s ahead in the polls.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    edited May 2022
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, 2023 is still the value here.

    It could well be that Johnson gets the 54 votes against him this summer, but I’m still far from convinced that there’s the 180 votes in place to actually oust him. Same as with Mrs May in December 2018, at a time when she had lost her majority and was utterly failing to get her major policy through the Commons.

    So summer 2022 he survives, and summer 2023 he goes - unless somehow there’s good economic news on the horizon and he’s ahead in the polls.

    Of the three options 2023 seems to me least likely. If he survives this year then I think he survives until the General Election. Can you explain why you think 2023 would happen when 2022 wouldn't? I just can't see the reasons or logic for that when all the opprobrium over partygate is being heaped on him now. What do you envisage happening in '23 that is so much worse than '22?

    Johnson and his acolytes clearly believe that by pouring gasolene on the culture wars they can win big in the red wall seats. I'm sufficiently long in the tooth to have seen this sort of back to basics appeal to the heartlands guff before and I don't think it will work this time either.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    edited May 2022

    There’s a particular story on front of every paper, but even so, Truss announcement, which seemed a big moment to me, doesn’t feature at all, not even much on the websites. Odd? 🤔

    Well obviously a rape accusation against a tory MP is huge. You don't need to be coy about 'a certain story' - it's not libellous or sub judice to talk in general terms.

    I think most of the political world is well aware that Liz Truss is just lobbing grenades into every delicate situation in order to shore up her leadership ambitions with the tory faithful. Most aren't taken in by it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    On topic, 2023 is still the value here.

    It could well be that Johnson gets the 54 votes against him this summer, but I’m still far from convinced that there’s the 180 votes in place to actually oust him. Same as with Mrs May in December 2018, at a time when she had lost her majority and was utterly failing to get her major policy through the Commons.

    So summer 2022 he survives, and summer 2023 he goes - unless somehow there’s good economic news on the horizon and he’s ahead in the polls.

    Of the three options 2023 seems to me least likely. If he survives this year then I think he survives until the General Election. Can you explain why you think 2023 would happen when 2022 wouldn't? I just can't see the reasons or logic for that when all the opprobrium over partygate is being heaped on him now. What do you envisage happening in '23 that is so much worse than '22?

    Johnson and his acolytes clearly believe that by pouring gasolene on the culture wars they can win big in the red wall seats. I'm sufficiently long in the tooth to have seen this sort of back to basics appeal to the heartlands guff before and I don't think it will work this time either.
    2023 is a simple electoral calculation: If you think he's going to save your job you keep him, if you think he's going to lose it you give him the boot. This doesn't work well in mid-term because it's too soon to say whether he's an asset or a liability.

    Also 2023 is late enough in the term that the next guy can call a snap election off their bounce, if it looks like they're going to win. So better all around.

    With most politicians you might worry that there wouldn't be a trigger event that justifies moving, but Boris is a veritable fountain of scandals, so if they don't jump on this one they can just wait for the next one. And in any case they don't seem to care too much about that - for example IIRC IDS was going to be booted after the expected disaster in local elections, then he did pretty well in the elections, but they booted him anyway.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

    Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

    That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    The Tory party rules specify a minimum of 12 months between leadership confidence votes.

    So if the PM survives a confidence vote this summer, then the same date in 2023 presents a small window of oppportunity to change leader, before the run-up to what’s almost certainly a May ‘24 election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    National Gene Bank of Plants of Ukraine destroyed by the Russian army 🧬🌱

    It kept more than 160 thousand varieties of plant seeds, and hybrids of agricultural crops, including some of those that no longer exist in Europe, and in the entire world.

    https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1526644809988984833
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    In Pennsylvania, Dr Oz now taken the lead for US Senate GOP nomination over McCormick, by less than 600 votes out of more than 1.2m cast
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Nigelb said:

    National Gene Bank of Plants of Ukraine destroyed by the Russian army 🧬🌱

    It kept more than 160 thousand varieties of plant seeds, and hybrids of agricultural crops, including some of those that no longer exist in Europe, and in the entire world.

    https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1526644809988984833

    One more war crime on indictment for Putin & Co.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929

    In Pennsylvania, Dr Oz now taken the lead for US Senate GOP nomination over McCormick, by less than 600 votes out of more than 1.2m cast

    That's good for Trump, right?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited May 2022

    Pennsylvania Primary 2022 - Governor

    In PA GOP primary, winner is Trump endorsed state senator Douglas Mastriano, a leader in effort to throw Keystone State's electoral votes to candidate who lost Keystone State in 2020. With 86% of estimated vote reported, Mastriano's currently got 47% versus two rivals.

    In Democratic primay, only candidate who filed was state attorney general Josh Shapiro, who conventional wisdom says is likely to be elected governor in November regardless of what happens in the US Senate race.

    I hope conventional wisdom is right.
    Mastriano is a dangerous loon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:

    National Gene Bank of Plants of Ukraine destroyed by the Russian army 🧬🌱

    It kept more than 160 thousand varieties of plant seeds, and hybrids of agricultural crops, including some of those that no longer exist in Europe, and in the entire world.

    https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1526644809988984833

    One more war crime on indictment for Putin & Co.
    There are other reports that this was a subsidiary research station, and not the main seed bank. Hopefully true, as this appears to be an important asset.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929
    Half of new nurses and midwives come from abroad
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61483358
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Heathener said:

    There’s a particular story on front of every paper, but even so, Truss announcement, which seemed a big moment to me, doesn’t feature at all, not even much on the websites. Odd? 🤔

    I think most of the political world is well aware that Liz Truss is just lobbing grenades into every delicate situation in order to shore up her leadership ambitions with the tory faithful. Most aren't taken in by it.
    There is more to IMO, the Tories are opening dividing lines, They will want to rekindle the Brexit war in time for the general election, A spat with Europe suits them just fine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    There’s a particular story on front of every paper, but even so, Truss announcement, which seemed a big moment to me, doesn’t feature at all, not even much on the websites. Odd? 🤔

    I think most of the political world is well aware that Liz Truss is just lobbing grenades into every delicate situation in order to shore up her leadership ambitions with the tory faithful. Most aren't taken in by it.
    There is more to IMO, the Tories are opening dividing lines, They will want to rekindle the Brexit war in time for the general election, A spat with Europe suits them just fine.
    Given they long since declared victory, that’s as pointless as it is self serving.
    Don’t say they were lying to us ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    There’s a particular story on front of every paper, but even so, Truss announcement, which seemed a big moment to me, doesn’t feature at all, not even much on the websites. Odd? 🤔

    I think most of the political world is well aware that Liz Truss is just lobbing grenades into every delicate situation in order to shore up her leadership ambitions with the tory faithful. Most aren't taken in by it.
    There is more to IMO, the Tories are opening dividing lines, They will want to rekindle the Brexit war in time for the general election, A spat with Europe suits them just fine.
    Given they long since declared victory, that’s as pointless as it is self serving.
    Don’t say they were lying to us ?
    They will blame Europe, supported by the right wing comics.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Oregon Primary 2022

    The Beaver State gained a congressional district after 2020 Census, the 6th which under Democratic-controlled redistrcting process leans same way, though NOT sure thing in a good Republican year.

    Democratic Primary OR CD6
    Andrea Salinas
    12,712 38.0%
    Carrick Flynn
    6,400 19.1%
    Cody Reynolds
    3,945 11.8%
    Loretta Smith
    3,276 9.8%
    Kathleen Harder
    2,678 8.0%
    Matt West
    2,392 7.2%
    Teresa Alonso Leon
    1,789 5.3%
    Ricky Barajas
    130 0.4%
    Greg Goodwin
    121 0.4%
    Total reported
    33,443

    Ballot printing problems in one county will delay results, but appears clear Salinas is Dem nominee. DESPITE fact that Carrick Flynn was bankrolled by Crypto-billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried in what is (so far) the most expensive congressional race in whole USA (allegedly with blessing of Nancy Pelosi, in return for much moneys donated via DCCC to members of her caucus hard-pressed this year by Republicans OR (in some cases anyway) fellow Democrats. Which resulted in much criticism of Speaker & DCCC by Hispanic Democrats.

    More importantly, it seems obvious that the vast amount of spending in form of TV, web, direct mail was overkill, and generated backlash among Democratic primary voters. (Both D & R primaries being closed, that is restricted to registered party voters.

    End result was voters rejecting big money candidate, and Democrats rallying around state representative Salinas as the (dare I say) "true" Democrat in the race.

    Interestingly, Carrick Flynn is affiliated with University of Oxford as "a Research Affiliate with the Future of Humanity Institute focusing on AI strategy, policy, and governance. He studied at Yale Law School, where he received his Juris Doctor and The University of Oregon where he graduated summa cum laude with a degree in Economics and International Studies. He has lived and worked in public interest organizations in the United States, Kenya, Liberia, Timor-Leste, India, Malaysia, Ethiopia, and the United Kingdom. He currently works as a Research Fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology in Washington, D.C."

    Do any PBers know anything about any of the above? Bottom line is that he and/or cryto-king tried to buy him (or them) a seat in Congress. But failed rather spectaularly, thanks to overeaching and esp overspending. VERY similar to how Jeff Bezos tried to buy several seats on Seattle city council in 2019 but failed for exactly same reason: pissing voters off by obviously attempting to buy their votes.

    BTW (and FYI) the Republican nominee in new OR 6th Congressional District, is Mike Erickson, who garnered 34% of the vote running against half-dozen challengers. A semi-perennial candidate, in 2008 will campaigning for congress on pro-life platform, he was accused of having facilitated & funded an abortion for a former girlfriend. Which he denied, but which methinks will NOT enhance his appeal to general election voters
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    A PM that doesn’t bullshit.

    Estonian PM explaining with astonishing clarity how Russians use appeasement to achieve their agenda.
    https://twitter.com/overdryven/status/1525916446307635200
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Jonathan said:

    Heathener said:

    There’s a particular story on front of every paper, but even so, Truss announcement, which seemed a big moment to me, doesn’t feature at all, not even much on the websites. Odd? 🤔

    I think most of the political world is well aware that Liz Truss is just lobbing grenades into every delicate situation in order to shore up her leadership ambitions with the tory faithful. Most aren't taken in by it.
    There is more to IMO, the Tories are opening dividing lines, They will want to rekindle the Brexit war in time for the general election, A spat with Europe suits them just fine.
    Ditto Putin.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Betting on the cowardice and/or ill judgement of the PCP generally seems sound thee days (to be fair, they were very good on Huawei, though the Number Ten dimwit has since delayed action on that by six months).
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    Heathener said:

    My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

    Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

    That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

    People who despise the Labour Party will continue to vote Conservative.

    We've been talking for a very long time about the "Never Tory" chunk of the electorate, who couldn't be convinced to go that way under any circumstances. My own conviction is that the cumulative effects of Brexit arguments and the disastrous Corbyn experiment have greatly increased the size of the "Never Labour" vote as well. This accounts entirely for the fact that the utter uselessness of the Government and the dreadful squeeze on incomes out in the country isn't reflected as one would expect in the opinion polling figures. There's no mass stampede to Labour because so many voters distrust it so intensely; likewise, the Lib Dem recovery is necessarily stunted because those same voters would regard them as likely allies for Labour and/or a means to peel off Conservative votes and therefore allow Labour in through the middle.

    I can't quantify the "Never Labour" vote but I'm certain that it's substantial, I think we all appreciate that anti-Labour sentiment was a big driver for the outcome of the 2019 GE, and I'm sure that there's still a lot of it out there. Hence the fact that, despite the pretty dire circumstances in which much of the country finds itself, we can still talk realistically about another Tory victory.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited May 2022


    Interestingly, Carrick Flynn is affiliated with University of Oxford as "a Research Affiliate with the Future of Humanity Institute focusing on AI strategy, policy, and governance. He studied at Yale Law School, where he received his Juris Doctor and The University of Oregon where he graduated summa cum laude with a degree in Economics and International Studies. He has lived and worked in public interest organizations in the United States, Kenya, Liberia, Timor-Leste, India, Malaysia, Ethiopia, and the United Kingdom. He currently works as a Research Fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology in Washington, D.C."

    Do any PBers know anything about any of the above? Bottom line is that he and/or cryto-king tried to buy him (or them) a seat in Congress. But failed rather spectaularly, thanks to overeaching and esp overspending. VERY similar to how Jeff Bezos tried to buy several seats on Seattle city council in 2019 but failed for exactly same reason: pissing voters off by obviously attempting to buy their votes.

    There's some more on it here, they have Flynn down as an Effective Altruism luminary, and SBF is an Effective Altruism enthusiast:
    https://www.vox.com/23066877/carrick-flynn-effective-altruism-sam-bankman-fried-congress-house-election-2022

    For people not familiar with it Effective Altruism is tied up with the Rationalist movement, notably Slate Star Codex. They're generally progressive but sometimes have run-ins with the conventional left because they're willing to *entertain* various kinds of wrong-think and say "what's the evidence that this is wrong".

    Effective Altruism tends to be consequentialist, for instance EA people would tend to say that if you have a million dollars to give away you should be sending it to buy mosquito nets in Africa where you can save a live for $4000 instead of saving a life closer to home. (I'm not sure what the EA case is for spending your money losing primaries in Oregon when you could be saving 2000 lives in Africa but maybe you can make it, and SBF is a funny guy.)

    Personally I'd really like to see people like this in government - for instance pandemic preparedness turned out to be important like the EA wonks said - but I can see how they'd have a hard time getting through the emoting-and-lying contest that is an election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Heathener said:

    My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

    Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

    That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

    You continue to insult Tory voters in Red Wall seats.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

    Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

    That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

    You continue to insult Tory voters in Red Wall seats.
    Labour expect these people to vote for them but have a barely disguised contempt for them.

    Many of whom are some of the most marginalised and least well off in society.

    Labour supporters abuse these people and their communities then wonder why they won’t vote for them.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Inflation = 9%.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    👀 UK CPI inflation rate hits 9% in April.
    - 40 year high
    - but if the @bankofengland is right, it could be higher still in winter
    - and they've underestimated inflation for the past year and a bit

    - https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1526805689284313088
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited May 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Inflation = 9%.

    Which measure? That sounds like March's RPI figure. The April RPI is 11.1%!

    EDIT: CPI. ONS headline CPIH, which is 7.8% in April (up from 6.2% in March).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614


    Interestingly, Carrick Flynn is affiliated with University of Oxford as "a Research Affiliate with the Future of Humanity Institute focusing on AI strategy, policy, and governance. He studied at Yale Law School, where he received his Juris Doctor and The University of Oregon where he graduated summa cum laude with a degree in Economics and International Studies. He has lived and worked in public interest organizations in the United States, Kenya, Liberia, Timor-Leste, India, Malaysia, Ethiopia, and the United Kingdom. He currently works as a Research Fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology in Washington, D.C."

    Do any PBers know anything about any of the above? Bottom line is that he and/or cryto-king tried to buy him (or them) a seat in Congress. But failed rather spectaularly, thanks to overeaching and esp overspending. VERY similar to how Jeff Bezos tried to buy several seats on Seattle city council in 2019 but failed for exactly same reason: pissing voters off by obviously attempting to buy their votes.

    There's some more on it here, they have Flynn down as an Effective Altruism luminary, and SBF is an Effective Altruism enthusiast:
    https://www.vox.com/23066877/carrick-flynn-effective-altruism-sam-bankman-fried-congress-house-election-2022

    For people not familiar with it Effective Altruism is tied up with the Rationalist movement, notably Slate Star Codex. They're generally progressive but sometimes have run-ins with the conventional left because they're willing to *entertain* various kinds of wrong-think and say "what's the evidence for this proposition".

    Effective Altruism tends to be consequentialist, for instance EA people would tend to say that if you have a million dollars to give away you should be sending it to buy mosquito nets in Africa where you can save a live for $4000 instead of saving a life closer to home. (I'm not sure what the EA case is for spending your money losing primaries in Oregon when you could be 2000 lives in Africa but maybe you can make it, and SBF is a funny guy.)

    Personally I'd really like to see people like this in government - for instance pandemic preparedness turned out to be important like the EA wonks said - but I can see how they'd have a hard time getting through the emoting-and-lying contest that is an election.
    That’s a good theory that most of the world’s real, solvable problems are invisible to most of us in the developed world. It’s easier to raise a million for an MRI scanner in an NHS hospital, than to raise a thousand for aid to Africa.

    Spending the sort of money that politicians spend getting elected in the US, is not only time-consuming, but leads to almost all politicians being bought completely by their donors.

    (I still can’t read about mosquito nets without immediately thinking of that very bad Jimmy Carr joke. He said himself that it’s the most offensive joke he’s ever written)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    And with a possible third sex-pest by-election rising with the dawn, there is no end to the opportunities for voters to give their verdict.

    I think the Conservatives have given up listening to any bad news, though.

    That would not occur until a conviction, likely to be around or after the next election
    Not true. Resignation could happen at any moment. We'll see how much bother XXXXX XXXXX is in and whether he has the decency to resign. It wouldn't surprise me to see a swift exit on a "concentrate on fighting to clear my name" basis.
    I think Farooq is wrong.

    Decency to resign might sound alright on the face of it, but as Nigel Evans shows perhaps there are good reasons not to resign, like innocence. It no doubt made his job much harder, and tough on constituents, but the very fact we would of course presume guilt was the factor in the resignation (hence it being the decent thing to do) is another reason accused are unlikely to want to.
    Lol, wishful thinking. Innocent and Tory are oxymorons.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Sandpit said:

    The Tory party rules specify a minimum of 12 months between leadership confidence votes.

    So if the PM survives a confidence vote this summer, then the same date in 2023 presents a small window of oppportunity to change leader, before the run-up to what’s almost certainly a May ‘24 election.

    Yes, but it was the threat to change the rules that got rid of May.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    And with a possible third sex-pest by-election rising with the dawn, there is no end to the opportunities for voters to give their verdict.

    I think the Conservatives have given up listening to any bad news, though.

    That would not occur until a conviction, likely to be around or after the next election
    Not true. Resignation could happen at any moment. We'll see how much bother XXXXX XXXXX is in and whether he has the decency to resign. It wouldn't surprise me to see a swift exit on a "concentrate on fighting to clear my name" basis.
    If a Minister resigning to backbenches is normally done 'to clear name'.

    If not a Minister, then staying on backbenches can be done, without the whip, for years.
    The whips have asked the MP in question not to turn up to the Commons. That can't go on for years.
    Nothing they can do about it though, I believe. If XXXX XXXX turns up, who's going to turn him away and on what grounds?
    The Speaker can I believe, if he believes people might be at risk.
    That's a step up from him being an inconvenient embarrassment though.
    I guess if the allegations involve people who work at the HoC, it's possible, but I have no clue what the specifics are.
    Would you want to be in a lift with any Tory MP over 50 at present, else? Either sex/gender is at risk. Or both. One must be equal opportunity, remember.
    I once gave a lift to an MSP. I can confirm that I was not assaulted.
    I didn't really know him, but the way. Friend of a friend of a friend.
    You were lucky
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    My God, things are getting so bad that some rozzers might be open to corruption now, because coppers would never do anything corrupt.


    A police officer has confronted the Home Secretary about pay and conditions in the service telling her in stark terms she can no longer afford to live on her salary.

    Detective Constable Vicky Knight, who has 23-years service with North Wales Police, said she had resorted to visiting a food bank and had to borrow money from her parents each month to help feed her 13-year-old son.

    The 46-year-old, who is a single parent, confronted Ms Patel following her keynote speech at the Police Federation conference in Manchester, asking her “could you afford to live on £1,200 a month?”

    She said many of her colleagues were becoming increasingly desperate and warned that the financial pressure could result in some officers becoming open to corruption.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/17/can-no-longer-afford-police-officer-23-year-veteran-tells-priti/

    There's a real wider issue here.

    The public sector can genuinely afford to pay less to its staff than the private sector; more stability, nicer conditions, warmer fuzzies. But that only goes so far, and we're awfully close to that point.

    The teacher recruitment stats for next year are pretty grisly (see https://twitter.com/JackWorthNFER/status/1518908261734436865 for graphic graphs) and the situation for support staff is, if anything, worse.

    The increasing flexible working conditions in the private sector have stolen one of the trump cards that the government has played as an employer.

    And if schools'n'hospitals stop working because of a simple lack of people, voters are going to notice.
    I suspect the private sector is bad for this too, but as a civil servant myself, I can attest that people don't get paid for their utility. They get paid for their seniority.

    The public want good teachers and nurses. They don't want diversity and inclusion workers on £60,000 a year.
    But the ethnic minority staff may want those workers, or move to good private sector employers where it's a matter of course.
    What bollox
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Not that we really want a competition to see who is the poorest MP, but I'd actually kind of like if when a stereotypical 'Could you live on X?' question was thrown at one that they were bold enough to say 'I could actually' and then prove it.

    ISTR that one MP was challenged to live on 30p and old lollipop sticks, or whatever was the current SB rate, in a TV programme and coudl barely cope for a week even without replacement of medium and major items like shoes. I think he was Tory, so in the Major eyars?
    There was a Labour one did the swap for a week and him and his wife lasted 2 days I think
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Scott_xP said:

    👀 UK CPI inflation rate hits 9% in April.
    - 40 year high
    - but if the @bankofengland is right, it could be higher still in winter
    - and they've underestimated inflation for the past year and a bit

    - https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1526805689284313088

    If I retired I would get CPI rise on my pension, if I carry on working, probably 2%. The sums all push in one direction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited May 2022
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 UK CPI inflation rate hits 9% in April.
    - 40 year high
    - but if the @bankofengland is right, it could be higher still in winter
    - and they've underestimated inflation for the past year and a bit

    - https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1526805689284313088

    If I retired I would get CPI rise on my pension, if I carry on working, probably 2%. The sums all push in one direction.
    You’re lucky that the NHS scheme doesn’t have an inflation cap. Many schemes do, as pensioners will be finding out next year.

    You could, of course, stay working and leave the scheme, to get the much higher increase on your deferred pension. But only worth considering if you expect to stop work in the next year or two.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    My God, things are getting so bad that some rozzers might be open to corruption now, because coppers would never do anything corrupt.


    A police officer has confronted the Home Secretary about pay and conditions in the service telling her in stark terms she can no longer afford to live on her salary.

    Detective Constable Vicky Knight, who has 23-years service with North Wales Police, said she had resorted to visiting a food bank and had to borrow money from her parents each month to help feed her 13-year-old son.

    The 46-year-old, who is a single parent, confronted Ms Patel following her keynote speech at the Police Federation conference in Manchester, asking her “could you afford to live on £1,200 a month?”

    She said many of her colleagues were becoming increasingly desperate and warned that the financial pressure could result in some officers becoming open to corruption.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/17/can-no-longer-afford-police-officer-23-year-veteran-tells-priti/

    How is her salary £14,400 a year? Am I missing something?
    Perhaps that's the money she has left after tax, NI, Poll tax, and mortgage?

    £300 per week after mortgage is enough to live on if that's the question and I'm not sure what the mortgage has to do with the Home Secretary if that's been included.
    Point being, rather than pompous speculation on here from arsehole rich tories looking down their noses and pontificating what plebs can live on, is that the Tories have turned the UK into such a shithole that people in what are considered well paid jobs struggle to live.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    Bloody hell that inflation figure.

    This is not good. To the right-wing defenders of this Government please spare us the 'yeah but, no but' crap. We all know that it's international BUT a series of stupid decisions have fanned the flames here.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 UK CPI inflation rate hits 9% in April.
    - 40 year high
    - but if the @bankofengland is right, it could be higher still in winter
    - and they've underestimated inflation for the past year and a bit

    - https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1526805689284313088

    If I retired I would get CPI rise on my pension, if I carry on working, probably 2%. The sums all push in one direction.
    You’re lucky that the NHS scheme doesn’t have an inflation cap. Many schemes do, as pensioners will be finding out next year.
    The thing is I don't particularly want to retire as I rather enjoy my job, but some of my colleagues have had enough. Inflation induced real pay cuts, combined with fiscal drag are the final straw.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    edited May 2022
    Heathener said:

    There’s a particular story on front of every paper, but even so, Truss announcement, which seemed a big moment to me, doesn’t feature at all, not even much on the websites. Odd? 🤔

    Well obviously a rape accusation against a tory MP is huge. You don't need to be coy about 'a certain story' - it's not libellous or sub judice to talk in general terms.

    I think most of the political world is well aware that Liz Truss is just lobbing grenades into every delicate situation in order to shore up her leadership ambitions with the tory faithful. Most aren't taken in by it.
    I think the media have filed Northern Ireland as "far too complicated". Truss says she might do something about a protocol that few understand, and if she did then the EU might retaliate in some unspecified way, and the combined result might be to have unknown effect on the anyway obscure Irish problem. I challenge you to write a good eye-catching story out of that.

    If there's a trade war, then of course it'll be on the front page. But that's probably a year away, and likely to be complicated too - suspension of tariff reductions on car batteries and chimneys, or something.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    Sandpit said:


    Interestingly, Carrick Flynn is affiliated with University of Oxford as "a Research Affiliate with the Future of Humanity Institute focusing on AI strategy, policy, and governance. He studied at Yale Law School, where he received his Juris Doctor and The University of Oregon where he graduated summa cum laude with a degree in Economics and International Studies. He has lived and worked in public interest organizations in the United States, Kenya, Liberia, Timor-Leste, India, Malaysia, Ethiopia, and the United Kingdom. He currently works as a Research Fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology in Washington, D.C."

    Do any PBers know anything about any of the above? Bottom line is that he and/or cryto-king tried to buy him (or them) a seat in Congress. But failed rather spectaularly, thanks to overeaching and esp overspending. VERY similar to how Jeff Bezos tried to buy several seats on Seattle city council in 2019 but failed for exactly same reason: pissing voters off by obviously attempting to buy their votes.

    There's some more on it here, they have Flynn down as an Effective Altruism luminary, and SBF is an Effective Altruism enthusiast:
    https://www.vox.com/23066877/carrick-flynn-effective-altruism-sam-bankman-fried-congress-house-election-2022

    For people not familiar with it Effective Altruism is tied up with the Rationalist movement, notably Slate Star Codex. They're generally progressive but sometimes have run-ins with the conventional left because they're willing to *entertain* various kinds of wrong-think and say "what's the evidence for this proposition".

    Effective Altruism tends to be consequentialist, for instance EA people would tend to say that if you have a million dollars to give away you should be sending it to buy mosquito nets in Africa where you can save a live for $4000 instead of saving a life closer to home. (I'm not sure what the EA case is for spending your money losing primaries in Oregon when you could be 2000 lives in Africa but maybe you can make it, and SBF is a funny guy.)

    Personally I'd really like to see people like this in government - for instance pandemic preparedness turned out to be important like the EA wonks said - but I can see how they'd have a hard time getting through the emoting-and-lying contest that is an election.
    (I still can’t read about mosquito nets without immediately thinking of that very bad Jimmy Carr joke. He said himself that it’s the most offensive joke he’s ever written)
    Then I shall make no attempt to look it up.

    Many a time I've slept under a mossie net in far flung places. Some of the most extraordinary times of my life.

    Anyway, back to the present. We're fucked.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Heathener said:

    Bloody hell that inflation figure.

    This is not good. To the right-wing defenders of this Government please spare us the 'yeah but, no but' crap. We all know that it's international BUT a series of stupid decisions have fanned the flames here.

    Yes, the BoE's failure to raise rates faster being the main one.

    To be honest, if Labour go into the next election promising to get inflation under control, then I'd happily see them in power (whether they'd actually do what's necessary - tighter monetary policy, reduced public spending - is another matter).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    My view is that Tiverton & Honiton will go LibDem in a big way. It could be pretty seismic and will continue a huge yellow surge in the blue wall.

    Wakefield ought to be a Labour win and they've finally settled on a good candidate but the initial rumpus over selection was not very smart by Starmer's aides and it tells me that they STILL don't get the new Conservative red wall voters.

    That bodes badly in my opinion for Labour in the General Election. I'm expecting them to do fail in the former red wall seats. Uneducated and unethical people will stay loyal to Boris. He will lose his majority but Labour's failure to engage with the Brexit mob (as I have just failed to do) will cost them.

    You continue to insult Tory voters in Red Wall seats.
    Labour expect these people to vote for them but have a barely disguised contempt for them.

    Many of whom are some of the most marginalised and least well off in society.

    Labour supporters abuse these people and their communities then wonder why they won’t vote for them.

    I think the problem is that a lot of them are not graduates, which in itself isn't a problem as long as you're not being stupid with it, and many of them are covert and overt racists.

    So it's quite difficult to love them.

    I'm just being honest. They're a difficult demographic for anyone with a heart and brain to like.
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