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Starmer can become PM without LAB making a single gain – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2022
    In other news; something specially Cornwelsh for Leon: Conde Nast claims to own copyright of a Cornwall village name.

    https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2022/may/13/star-inn-vogue-cornish-pub-will-not-change-name-despite-letter-from-conde-nast
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    Carnyx said:

    Waving hands in the air is sensible?
    The legislation would need to pass through both houses of parliament, so it was never going to be quick.
  • NotThatNickNotThatNick Posts: 16

    No indeed, I don't think you're being biased, it is a beautiful island.
    Just dreaming about eating at Irene's in Ano Meria - the only restaurant in a grocery I know.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,012
    Carnyx said:

    Waving hands in the air is sensible?
    If everyone stays in their polarised position then this saga will continue for years

    Jaw jaw is better than war war when each side is entrenched
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    If everyone stays in their polarised position then this saga will continue for years

    Jaw jaw is better than war war when each side is entrenched
    Well, quite. It's about time the Unionists got their teddies back in the pram. And HMG did what it signed up to.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    HYUFD said:

    Technically true but not realistically true. It would require the Liberal Democrats to gain 50 to 60 seats from the Tories in constituencies like Mid Sussex, Epsom and Ewell, Chelmsford and Surrey Heath and a huge Tory to LD swing of 14 to 15%.

    More realistically Starmer could become PM gaining about 50 seats from the Tories with another 10 to 20 gains from the Tories coming from the Liberal Democrats. Then Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament even if Labour was still well short of an overall majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Agreed - and for the LDs to make more than 6-10 gains from the Conservatives is very tough. Not impossible, of course. But tough.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,012
    Carnyx said:

    Well, quite. It's about time the Unionists got their teddies back in the pram. And HMG did what it signed up to.
    You show just why this is stalemate
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559

    The policies were stupid when they were announced, but I don't think anybody thinks they make a huge difference over cost of living, unless you literally live off chocolate bars and pizzas.
    Chocolate bars ON Pizzas?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559
    dixiedean said:

    Do you think?
    I suspect they'll never serve as a second to Sinn Fein. The protocol is a figleaf for the real issue.
    The DUP have done a "TMay", haven't they?

    They triggered an unnecessary election in which they lost their pole position!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,983
    EPG said:

    A Lab-LD(-PC or Green) Coalition is surely plausible, even if you can mathematically bracket it with the minority.
    Yes. My 45% probability is that Labour will lead a government in some form with less than a majority of the seats.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    IshmaelZ said:

    If it was me I'd go for Kalamata. Don't know it but always wanted to check out S Peloponnese, and on a 20 second google it seems to tick them boxes
    We went on holiday there about five years ago. It was extremely quite and - frankly - a bit boring.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Applicant said:

    Point 4 is really just that the maths didn't give the LDs many options - there was no possible stable Labour-led coalition so the choice was the coalition we had or a short-term minority Cameron government followed by another election where the LDs would most likely get punished for not going into government.
    No conceivable punishment would have left them with eight seats, about half of which were bizarre, transient local deviations from national Labour Party strength. So they would probably end 2020 on a few dozen seats facing a Tory austerity majority. Which would have been an electorally better position, if not quite morally better, by 2015.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Imagine that England was not a member of a major international body, and opinion polling during many decades has shown that the population were perfectly happy not being members of the international body. Then, very suddenly, something unexpected happens that induces many elected parliamentarians to completely change their minds on membership. Now, this is a big deal: if England joins she will gain some rights and privileges which could/might prove useful. On the other hand there come some very cumbersome responsibilities and costs too. Should the politicians just “jump” the electorate into their brand new lust for membership? Or should the nation have a civilised debate about the pros and cons and take a calm decision at a referendum?

    I consider the “jumping” of the Finnish and Swedish nations to be an undemocratic national disgrace. Both countries should be ashamed of themselves. Turkey might just have done us a big favour.
    You don't think that the threat of invasion and what has happened in Ukraine might have had just a little to do with the decision? And since when was it undemocratic to listen to the wishes of your population? I think the only one who should be ashamed around here is you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,433
    edited May 2022

    You show just why this is stalemate
    Does he? Each side contributes to a situation, but the DUP appear to be the most obstructive, the most intractable, the most engaged in grandstanding to protect their position. If one side is more unreasonable a stalemate is not ended by giving in to them - they will simply move on to some other unreasonable position, since their only concern appears to be protecting their dominant position from other, more fiery, unionists.

    I can't be the only person sick of the DUP acting like children then protecting that they are not taken seriously.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    You show just why this is stalemate
    No, I don't. I didn't sign a treaty, win an election saying it was great, best thing since self-basting turkeys and all oven ready, then admit it was a heap of rotting poultry faeces. YOur party (at the time, and evidently now) did.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 583
    Please may I make a couple of points on the topic.
    1. DUP and any other Unionists will not support a government that has made promises to the SNP that enable another referendum - an independent Scotland will surely lead to NI leaving the Union, either as a United Federal Republic, or an independent entity.
    2. A Labour government that relies on both LibDem and SNP support won't last as long as you can say Jack Robinson, they don't like each other. One or the other could last a long time, but not both.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,012
    Carnyx said:

    No, I don't. I didn't sign a treaty, win an election saying it was great, best thing since self-basting turkeys and all oven ready, then admit it was a heap of rotting poultry faeces. YOur party (at the time, and evidently now) did.
    Carnyx said:

    No, I don't. I didn't sign a treaty, win an election saying it was great, best thing since self-basting turkeys and all oven ready, then admit it was a heap of rotting poultry faeces. YOur party (at the time, and evidently now) did.
    I am not excusing Boris or the DUP, but this can only be resolved in negotiation with the EU, Irish and UK governments - Liz Truss is correct in seeking further talks and I believe Boris is meeting Michele O'Neill on Monday
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited May 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    We went on holiday there about five years ago. It was extremely quite and - frankly - a bit boring.
    Mani is an interesting place, for me, in the Peloponnese, after the area I mentioned before. Darkly mysterious, locals still renowned by other Greeks for their conservatism, descended from a combination of Spartans and various Latins who occupied the coast, and some shockingly beautiful landscapes and bits of coastline once occupied by pirates. Somehow not for the faint hearted, but opening up to tourism a bit more, nowadays.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    Chocolate bars ON Pizzas?
    Nutella pizza is a thing from Napoli.
  • Applicant said:

    I bet that the voters would rumble their attempt to rig the system and punish the "progressive alliance".
    I have some experience of this. I'm currently a district cllr and I stood as a progressive alliance candidate for county last year. Knocked on hundreds of doors. The reception was generally accepting. Nobody shouted at me. I was congratulated for taking the initiative quite frequently.

    I did okay. Better than I expected. 40% in a solid conservative area. An area where 60% is the standard conservative vote. I didn't feel punished.

    In my opinion Labour are not in power because they are a not prepared to compromise. Which is just dumb considering that successful government is about finding compromises that suit your goals.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397
    edited May 2022

    You don't think that the threat of invasion and what has happened in Ukraine might have had just a little to do with the decision? And since when was it undemocratic to listen to the wishes of your population? I think the only one who should be ashamed around here is you.
    I also think Stuart is rather overlooking the time element. As Ukraine demonstrates, if you announce you are considering joining NATO Putin will attack at once to make you change your mind.

    Finland and Sweden won't now be safe until they are under the NATO umbrella.

    As to Erdogan, I suspect he is partly sabre rattling for domestic consumption and partly trying to wring a few concessions on these Kurdish groups from the Finns and Swedes in advance of these talks. Hard to believe that if every other NATO member votes aye and the USA indicates this is what he wants that he will try to veto.

    Edit - that was a Freudian slip but I like it so much I'm leaving it in!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    You don't think that the threat of invasion and what has happened in Ukraine might have had just a little to do with the decision? And since when was it undemocratic to listen to the wishes of your population? I think the only one who should be ashamed around here is you.
    Democratic countries do not govern by opinion poll. We use the ballot box.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397

    Democratic countries do not govern by opinion poll. We use the ballot box.
    No, democratic countries generally elect leaders to make difficult decisions on their behalf, on the basis it is quicker, easier and allows for a few people to be better informed rather than many people who are ill informed to consider the issues.

    Referendums, as you should have noticed, do not always give sensible or even desirable results.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    I also think Stuart is rather overlooking the time element. As Ukraine demonstrates, if you announce you are considering joining NATO Putin will attack at once to make you change your mind.

    Finland and Sweden won't now be safe until they are under the NATO umbrella.

    As to Erdogan, I suspect he is partly sabre rattling for domestic consumption and partly trying to wring a few concessions on these Kurdish groups from the Finns and Swedes in advance of these talks. Hard to believe that if every other NATO member votes aye and the USA indicates this is what he wants that he will try to veto.

    Edit - that was a Freudian slip but I like it so much I'm leaving it in!
    - “Finland and Sweden won't now be safe until they are under the NATO umbrella.”

    Sweden hasn’t been at war for over 200 years. We have been safe without the mass-murder weapons.

    All this pseudo-concern for us Swedes and Finns is very touching. Nothing to do with English domestic politics of course. Perish the thought.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    No, democratic countries generally elect leaders to make difficult decisions on their behalf, on the basis it is quicker, easier and allows for a few people to be better informed rather than many people who are ill informed to consider the issues.

    Referendums, as you should have noticed, do not always give sensible or even desirable results.
    So, you want Nicola to just declare UDI tomorrow?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397

    - “Finland and Sweden won't now be safe until they are under the NATO umbrella.”

    Sweden hasn’t been at war for over 200 years. We have been safe without the mass-murder weapons.

    All this pseudo-concern for us Swedes and Finns is very touching. Nothing to do with English domestic politics of course. Perish the thought.
    You're right (for once) it's nothing to do with them, it's what we call a 'statement of fact.'

    If Sweden wishes to apply for NATO membership that's their choice. But as Putin sees it as deliberately provocative and in effect an act of war, merely mentioning it has already buggered the 200 year policy you refer to.

    So I say again - having started, you will not be safe if you stop.

    Unless, of course, you vote for union with Russia.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559

    - “Finland and Sweden won't now be safe until they are under the NATO umbrella.”

    Sweden hasn’t been at war for over 200 years. We have been safe without the mass-murder weapons.

    All this pseudo-concern for us Swedes and Finns is very touching. Nothing to do with English domestic politics of course. Perish the thought.
    Swedish volunteers did support Finland in the Winter War.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    You're right (for once) it's nothing to do with them, it's what we call a 'statement of fact.'

    If Sweden wishes to apply for NATO membership that's their choice. But as Putin sees it as deliberately provocative and in effect an act of war, merely mentioning it has already buggered the 200 year policy you refer to.

    So I say again - having started, you will not be safe if you stop.

    Unless, of course, you vote for union with Russia.
    Union with the blue mass-murder team or union with the red mass-murder team? Choices, choices…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397

    So, you want Nicola to just declare UDI tomorrow?
    She isn't actually the leader of her country, Scotland not being a country (as you never tire of reminding us). So it would have to be Johnson who made the UDI with Parliament's support.

    But if he did, under our system, none of us would have any say or grounds for complaint even if we disagreed.

    Just as if he decided to take us back into the EU (and who would put it past him if he thought it was in his interests?) he could do so if Parliament backed him.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Swedish volunteers did support Finland in the Winter War.
    Sunil, that’s like everyone having a debate about shallots vs onions, and you hopping in and telling everyone how much you love bananas.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397

    Union with the blue mass-murder team or union with the red mass-murder team? Choices, choices…
    Bad news. That is your choice now. It is not a choice you want to make, and who can blame you? But that's the situation Andersson and her government faces. It's not difficult to understand why she's made the choice she has.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    She isn't actually the leader of her country, Scotland not being a country (as you never tire of reminding us). So it would have to be Johnson who made the UDI with Parliament's support.

    But if he did, under our system, none of us would have any say or grounds for complaint even if we disagreed.

    Just as if he decided to take us back into the EU (and who would put it past him if he thought it was in his interests?) he could do so if Parliament backed him.
    Dearie me. Straw man time is it? I detect an uncharacteristic sloppiness in your style. Friday night. Ho hum.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,101
    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    On my wish list:

    Hydra - no cars, one town, no real roads, less than two hours from Piraeus

    Serifos - fine architecture, pebbly beaches and captivating character

    Tinos - food, hiking, surfing and wild beauty
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397

    Dearie me. Straw man time is it? I detect an uncharacteristic sloppiness in your style. Friday night. Ho hum.
    I note, however, that you do not identify the straw man, the points of sloppiness you observe or indeed rebut the argument.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Union with the blue mass-murder team or union with the red mass-murder team? Choices, choices…
    Not for the first time I think you might be slightly deranged.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    kjh said:

    Panicking a little?
    I think the people promoting PM SKS with 202 seats are...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    Bad news. That is your choice now. It is not a choice you want to make, and who can blame you? But that's the situation Andersson and her government faces. It's not difficult to understand why she's made the choice she has.
    Magdalena Andersson is not a dictator. We’ll see where we end up. But rest assured that we Swedes will decide, so you can keep your wise counsel to yourself.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,012

    - “Finland and Sweden won't now be safe until they are under the NATO umbrella.”

    Sweden hasn’t been at war for over 200 years. We have been safe without the mass-murder weapons.

    All this pseudo-concern for us Swedes and Finns is very touching. Nothing to do with English domestic politics of course. Perish the thought.
    Your last sentence is purely an anti English diatribe and certainly you are not speaking for public opinion in either country

    Mind you Putin would be proud of you
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559

    Sunil, that’s like everyone having a debate about shallots vs onions, and you hopping in and telling everyone how much you love bananas.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_Volunteer_Corps
    https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svenska_frivilligkåren
    https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svenska_frivilligbataljonen
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    I note, however, that you do not identify the straw man, the points of sloppiness you observe or indeed rebut the argument.
    I could do all three of those things, if you really are that thick. But I don’t think you are. Your just a bit tipsy. Just accept the fact that we disagree and move on. You are never going to convince me to love nuclear weapons.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397

    Magdalena Andersson is not a dictator. We’ll see where we end up. But rest assured that we Swedes will decide, so you can keep your wise counsel to yourself.
    Rest assured all the peoples of Britain can decide, so keep your wise counsel to yourself.

    Hmmm. Doesn't seem to work somehow?
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 583

    Completely OT I am more than a little chuffed tonight.

    When we bought our place a decade or more ago it had two paddocks amounting to about 2 acres attached. We decided to extend some adjacent woodland, planting around 150 trees (birch, ash, hazel, poplar and oak), replant an ancient orchard that had existed until it was grubbed out in the 1980s and turn the rest of the land back to hay meadow. We have seen the return of many different birds and insects including a big increase in moth population which - thanks to he advice of our resident PB expert Marquee Mark - I have been recording the last few years.

    Finally, this evening when out by the hedge between the two meadows I noticed that for the first time we now have hares in the meadow and at least one Form. It has taken a long time to get the land back into a proper state from the barren horse paddock it was but we are finally seeing the benefits. My only slight concern is whether the Red Kites nesting in the adjacent woodland might take a fancy to the leverets but that is just a chance we will have to take.

    Well done I am pleased for you. We have bought a moth light we have not had time to use yet but I hope to do so soon.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    EPG said:

    No conceivable punishment would have left them with eight seats, about half of which were bizarre, transient local deviations from national Labour Party strength. So they would probably end 2020 on a few dozen seats facing a Tory austerity majority. Which would have been an electorally better position, if not quite morally better, by 2015.
    Oh, indeed. But that would have required long term thinking.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Your last sentence is purely an anti English diatribe and certainly you are not speaking for public opinion in either country

    Mind you Putin would be proud of you
    The first casualty of war is truth.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559

    Magdalena Andersson is not a dictator. We’ll see where we end up. But rest assured that we Swedes will decide, so you can keep your wise counsel to yourself.
    "We Swedes"? I thought you were Scottish!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    Rest assured all the peoples of Britain can decide, so keep your wise counsel to yourself.

    Hmmm. Doesn't seem to work somehow?
    Incoherent. I think you ought to tackle this topic in a more considered fashion in the cold light of day.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,012

    "We Swedes"? I thought you were Scottish!
    He is certainly a turnip
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397
    edited May 2022

    I could do all three of those things, if you really are that thick. But I don’t think you are. Your just a bit tipsy. Just accept the fact that we disagree and move on. You are never going to convince me to love nuclear weapons.
    You could, you say - but you don't. And it's ironic that you accuse me of being 'tipsy' (I haven't drunk anything yet) while you resort to personal abuse and can't even spell 'your.'

    Nobody is convincing you to 'love nuclear weapons.' All that I am doing is pointing out the situation Sweden is in. It's frankly not one I envy. But you seem to be in denial of the seriousness of it. Andersson's actions show she is anything but.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    "We Swedes"? I thought you were Scottish!
    I’m both.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I’m both.
    Quite. And European too. Jammy sod.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397

    Incoherent. I think you ought to tackle this topic in a more considered fashion in the cold light of day.
    I am surprised you admit your words are incoherent. But equally, several people have been telling you that for the last hour so maybe it got through.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760

    I’m both.
    Are you not also British by citizenship?
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 752
    ydoethur said:

    Rest assured all the peoples of Britain can decide, so keep your wise counsel to yourself.

    Hmmm. Doesn't seem to work somehow?
    I've got a butty in the Free Wales Army....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    You could, you say - but you don't. And it's ironic that you accuse me of being 'tipsy' (I haven't drunk anything yet) while you resort to personal abuse and can't even spell 'your.'

    Nobody is convincing you to 'love nuclear weapons.' All that I am doing is pointing out the situation Sweden is in. It's frankly not one I envy. But you seem to be in denial of the seriousness of it. Andersson's actions show she is anything but.
    Magdalena Andersson isn’t the first person to be duped by Boris Johnson. She won’t be the last either.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2022

    Are you not also British by citizenship?
    No such thing. UK. 'British' doesn't exist, except [edit] by subtraction insofar as th epoor sods who are born in GB don't have the Irish option.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283

    Not for the first time I think you might be slightly deranged.
    Slightly?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,133

    Union with the blue mass-murder team or union with the red mass-murder team? Choices, choices…
    Thank you for staying your moral position. And for doing so with such precision and detail. No weasel words to fall back on, or hide behind.

    Now we know.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397
    Penddu2 said:

    I've got a butty in the Free Wales Army....
    Bacon or sausage?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Quite. And European too. Jammy sod.
    I love my European citizenship. It is so liberating to know that I can live and work wherever I like within the EU.

    And as a Nordic citizen that even applies to the 2 non-EU Nordic countries: Iceland and Norway.

    My home, both physical and psychological, is attractive. Many years ago SeanT wrote a memorable post about his warm feelings for his European home. He was going through a brief period of EU-enthusiasm. It was quite poetic. Shame the archives have been lost. I’d guess it was perhaps around 2012. Anyone else remember it?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    RobD said:

    Says British in my passport.
    If it said Knob, would that make it true?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,918
    edited May 2022

    Completely OT I am more than a little chuffed tonight.

    When we bought our place a decade or more ago it had two paddocks amounting to about 2 acres attached. We decided to extend some adjacent woodland, planting around 150 trees (birch, ash, hazel, poplar and oak), replant an ancient orchard that had existed until it was grubbed out in the 1980s and turn the rest of the land back to hay meadow. We have seen the return of many different birds and insects including a big increase in moth population which - thanks to he advice of our resident PB expert Marquee Mark - I have been recording the last few years.

    Finally, this evening when out by the hedge between the two meadows I noticed that for the first time we now have hares in the meadow and at least one Form. It has taken a long time to get the land back into a proper state from the barren horse paddock it was but we are finally seeing the benefits. My only slight concern is whether the Red Kites nesting in the adjacent woodland might take a fancy to the leverets but that is just a chance we will have to take.

    If they take them that's nature my friend. They won't take them all anyways. That's also nature.
    Congratulations on doing a small bit for all our benefit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,012

    If it said Knob, would that make it true?
    Well it takes one to know one !!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397

    If it said Knob, would that make it true?
    Well, your passport says 'Dick' in it...so I can understand why you feel it wouldn't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,483

    Completely OT I am more than a little chuffed tonight.

    When we bought our place a decade or more ago it had two paddocks amounting to about 2 acres attached. We decided to extend some adjacent woodland, planting around 150 trees (birch, ash, hazel, poplar and oak), replant an ancient orchard that had existed until it was grubbed out in the 1980s and turn the rest of the land back to hay meadow. We have seen the return of many different birds and insects including a big increase in moth population which - thanks to he advice of our resident PB expert Marquee Mark - I have been recording the last few years.

    Finally, this evening when out by the hedge between the two meadows I noticed that for the first time we now have hares in the meadow and at least one Form. It has taken a long time to get the land back into a proper state from the barren horse paddock it was but we are finally seeing the benefits. My only slight concern is whether the Red Kites nesting in the adjacent woodland might take a fancy to the leverets but that is just a chance we will have to take.

    Delighted to hear it. I wouldn't worry too much about the red kites going for the leverets - in my experience, they go for the easy option, more than happy to go for worms behind a plough.

    Buzzards, on the other hand.....

    Still waiting to hear whether my Pauper Pug gets accepted as the first one recorded in Devon. Our county moth recorder has gone to collect a Ukrainian family, so I have a little wait!
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited May 2022
    Eurovision post. The jury final (which acts as a dress rehearsal) just happened and all 25 countries performed in their order that they'll appear on TV tomorrow.

    The betting suggests the UK will win the jury vote and having looked at Twitter from fellow enthusiasts and experts there, it looks like the UK act did very well and they remain favourite to win that part of the vote. The jury counts for 50% of the final vote so the public vote going overwhelmingly for Ukraine, if as expected, still means they're hot favourites.

    Jury voting odds: https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-jury

    Overall odds: https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Applicant said:

    Oh, indeed. But that would have required long term thinking.
    I think it was lack of experience. All their forebears' previous coalitions ended with most Liberals attached to the Conservatives and slowly federating. So they tried hard to avoid that and maintain tension, but the tension just led to people who liked the Coalition switching to huggable Dave, and the rest towards Labour. They also saw other European countries where liberals had survived coalition (though Germany 2014 would have cooled their ardour).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    Lee Anderson was helping cook meals at a food bank and cook training session today judging by my local news.

    Looks like it was busy with journos and photographers.

    He has found his cause.

    Not sure I would bet against him holding the seat.


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_Volunteer_Corps
    https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svenska_frivilligkåren
    https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svenska_frivilligbataljonen
    Thanks Sunil. This is not news to me. May I ask: what point are you attempting to make?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    RH1992 said:

    Eurovision post. The jury final (which acts as a dress rehearsal) just happened and all 25 countries performed in their order that they'll appear on TV tomorrow.

    The betting suggests the UK will win the jury vote and having looked at Twitter from fellow enthusiasts and experts there, it looks like the UK act did very well and they remain favourite to win that part of the vote. The jury counts for 50% of the final vote so the public vote going overwhelmingly for Ukraine, if as expected, still means they're hot favourites.

    Jury voting odds: https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-jury

    Overall odds: https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision

    So have the jury already voted behind closed doors?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    RH1992 said:

    Eurovision post. The jury final (which acts as a dress rehearsal) just happened and all 25 countries performed in their order that they'll appear on TV tomorrow.

    The betting suggests the UK will win the jury vote and having looked at Twitter from fellow enthusiasts and experts there, it looks like the UK act did very well and they remain favourite to win that part of the vote. The jury counts for 50% of the final vote so the public vote going overwhelmingly for Ukraine, if as expected, still means they're hot favourites.

    Jury voting odds: https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-jury

    Overall odds: https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision

    Funnily enough, the Yookay is drifting. Now out to 9.2
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559

    If it said Knob, would that make it true?
    But the point is, it doesn't say "Knob", it says British.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,655
    Bozo, Moggster and the Mail trying their best to piss off as many middle class professionals as possible.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,257

    Lee Anderson was helping cook meals at a food bank and cook training session today judging by my local news.

    Looks like it was busy with journos and photographers.

    He has found his cause.

    Not sure I would bet against him holding the seat.


    He also seems to have found himself libelling Jack Monroe..


  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited May 2022

    So have the jury already voted behind closed doors?
    Yep, happens every year. The dress rehearsal for each show happens the night before the televised event and is what the national juries vote on. It means they can start revealing votes earlier since they're not calculating two sets of votes at the same time. The televote is always added at the end of the jury vote reveal.

    There's six nights of competition every year. e.g Semi Final 1 on Tuesday had a dry run for the juries on Monday, Semi Final 2 on Thurs had a dry run on Wed, Final on Sat has a dry run on Fri. There is a full crowd during every show so if a mishap occurs someone will have caught it on camera.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,199
    Good evening.

    I see the government’s plan for Northern Ireland is unravelling again.

    When oh when will they listen to Barty Bobbins? We hold all the cards!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    Good evening.

    I see the government’s plan for Northern Ireland is unravelling again.

    When oh when will they listen to Barty Bobbins? We hold all the cards!

    Maybe they need to hold an election to see what people in NI think about the protocol.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,655

    Completely OT I am more than a little chuffed tonight.

    When we bought our place a decade or more ago it had two paddocks amounting to about 2 acres attached. We decided to extend some adjacent woodland, planting around 150 trees (birch, ash, hazel, poplar and oak), replant an ancient orchard that had existed until it was grubbed out in the 1980s and turn the rest of the land back to hay meadow. We have seen the return of many different birds and insects including a big increase in moth population which - thanks to he advice of our resident PB expert Marquee Mark - I have been recording the last few years.

    Finally, this evening when out by the hedge between the two meadows I noticed that for the first time we now have hares in the meadow and at least one Form. It has taken a long time to get the land back into a proper state from the barren horse paddock it was but we are finally seeing the benefits. My only slight concern is whether the Red Kites nesting in the adjacent woodland might take a fancy to the leverets but that is just a chance we will have to take.

    That is brilliant. What a great story to end the day on. Hats off to you sir!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559
    EPG said:

    Maybe they need to hold an election to see what people in NI think about the protocol.
    DUP = Theresa May
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397
    EPG said:

    Maybe they need to hold an election to see what people in NI think about the protocol.
    I'm just surprised to learn they have a fecking plan...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,344

    If it said Knob, would that make it true?
    That's what the observations bit is for, isn't it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    ydoethur said:

    I'm just surprised to learn they have a fecking plan...
    There was a poignant Australian song in the 90s with the refrain:

    I've got another plan - this time it'll work
    Yeah, I've got another plan - this time it'll work
    Or I'll be struck down, struck down


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QcHjcMUz_4
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited May 2022

    Funnily enough, the Yookay is drifting. Now out to 9.2
    If that's for the overall competition that sounds about right. Personally I want Sweden to win since you can't pick your own country. I think a lot of the "Europe hates the UK, it's all about politics" people will be surprised tomorrow night, but I don't expect us to win. Top 5 would be a reasonable expectation.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,830

    So have the jury already voted behind closed doors?
    Are you questioning the impartiality of the Eurovision voting system...?

    Don't worry. There is no impartiality. Its non-stop comedy bullshit from the start of the show to the final unveiling. God I love it.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,580

    - “Finland and Sweden won't now be safe until they are under the NATO umbrella.”

    Sweden hasn’t been at war for over 200 years. We have been safe without the mass-murder weapons.

    All this pseudo-concern for us Swedes and Finns is very touching. Nothing to do with English domestic politics of course. Perish the thought.
    Ironic that it was a successful invasion of Sweden by Russia that made them forswear war (which up to then they had been rather good at, eg Gustavus Adolphus) and come over all neutral. Not so much being generally peace-loving as having lost big time and not wanting to lose again.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,830

    Good evening.

    I see the government’s plan for Northern Ireland is unravelling again.

    When oh when will they listen to Barty Bobbins? We hold all the cards!

    They had a plan?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,918

    There was a poignant Australian song in the 90s with the refrain:

    I've got another plan - this time it'll work
    Yeah, I've got another plan - this time it'll work
    Or I'll be struck down, struck down


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QcHjcMUz_4
    The Leader by Roger McGough.

    I wanna be the leader
    I wanna be the leader
    Can I be the leader?
    Can I? I can?
    Promise? Promise?
    Yippee I'm the leader
    I'm the leader

    OK what shall we do?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,199
    Twitter is stuffed full of Corbynistas trying to blame Israel’s latest outrage on Keir Starmer.

    Such nutters.

    No wonder that local Wakefield twit got the old heave-ho.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,830
    dixiedean said:

    The Leader by Roger McGough.

    I wanna be the leader
    I wanna be the leader
    Can I be the leader?
    Can I? I can?
    Promise? Promise?
    Yippee I'm the leader
    I'm the leader

    OK what shall we do?
    Its lonely at the top
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    "Mr Rees-Mogg said he would also examine Met Office weather reports over suggestions [civil servant] officials were staying at home on the sunniest days."

    Telegraph
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    Not sure going to war with the civil service ends well for fag end governments.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,433

    "Mr Rees-Mogg said he would also examine Met Office weather reports over suggestions [civil servant] officials were staying at home on the sunniest days."

    Telegraph

    Far be it for me to suggest that his behaviour is not the greatest example of government efficiency for the Minister of Government Efficiency to display.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,199
    Jacinda Ardern has Covid-19
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,535

    There was a poignant Australian song in the 90s with the refrain:

    I've got another plan - this time it'll work
    Yeah, I've got another plan - this time it'll work
    Or I'll be struck down, struck down


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QcHjcMUz_4
    Ah. My Friend the Chocolate Cake. Saw them live at the Edinburgh Fringe years ago. A good gig.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    "Mr Rees-Mogg said he would also examine Met Office weather reports over suggestions [civil servant] officials were staying at home on the sunniest days."

    Telegraph

    True? Sunning themselves.
    False? Staying at home because they're afraid of a little rain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446

    Its lonely at the top
    Not if you have a party every night of the week.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,199

    Not sure going to war with the civil service ends well for fag end governments.

    90,000 job losses will “save” £2.5bn.
    Reversing the Universal Credit cut would cost £6bn.

    The government is out of ideas.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,433
    edited May 2022

    Not sure going to war with the civil service ends well for fag end governments.

    It adds to the narrative defence for any potential loss - the 'mainstream media' and 'the Establishment' (here embodied by bitter civil servants) were against them donchaknow?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,918
    edited May 2022

    "Mr Rees-Mogg said he would also examine Met Office weather reports over suggestions [civil servant] officials were staying at home on the sunniest days."

    Telegraph

    Sunny days, where have you gone?
    I get the strangest feeling you belong
    Why does it always rain on me?
    Is it because I'm a Victorian charicature?
    Why does it always rain on me?
    Even when the sun is shining I can't avoid the lightning.

This discussion has been closed.