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Starmer can become PM without LAB making a single gain – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 22 in General
imageStarmer can become PM without LAB making a single gain – politicalbetting.com

One of the features of the next general election is that the seat targets for Labour and Tories will be totally different because Johnson’s party would find it very hard to form a coalition in the event of falling below the 325 seats required for a majority.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049
    And something like that, looks the likeliest outcome
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Really interesting thread Mike
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/13/millions-homeowners-face-negative-equity-trap-property-collapse/

    Torygraph running horror stories about Impending Property Crash every hour on the hour, is the business editor feeling overextended on buy to lets and wanting Sunak to Do Something for Hard Working Homeowners?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited May 13
    Technically true but not realistically true. It would require the Liberal Democrats to gain 50 to 60 seats from the Tories in constituencies like Mid Sussex, Epsom and Ewell, Chelmsford and Surrey Heath and a huge Tory to LD swing of 14 to 15%.

    More realistically Starmer could become PM gaining about 50 seats from the Tories with another 10 to 20 gains from the Tories coming from the Liberal Democrats. Then Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament even if Labour was still well short of an overall majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    tlg86 said:

    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.

    This time the Lib Dems will need to hold much firmer on getting PR.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    Given Labour's ongoing ability to shoot itself in the foot, relying on other parties making the necessary gains may still be the best plan.

    (I'm sure that some famous old bird has made the claim that every modern GE, even the ones with quirky results, has given the government that matched the mood of the country- correct party in power with the right sort of majority. For example, May in 2017 was less trusted with a majority than Cameron in 2015. Since the Conservatives are increasingly despised and Labour isn't despised but isn't really trusted, that points to Labour minority.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    tlg86 said:

    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.

    The most likely outcome at the next general election on current polls is 2010 in reverse. A hung parliament with Starmer as Cameron, Boris as Brown and Davey or Blackford as Clegg, even if Starmer forced a minority government not a coalition like Cameron
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,947
    Looks like Russia is cutting the power to Finland tomorrow.......

    On thread, possible but long term deadly for Labour, would quickly become 'we didnt want you and now everything is your fault'
  • If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,526
    edited May 13
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/13/millions-homeowners-face-negative-equity-trap-property-collapse/

    Torygraph running horror stories about Impending Property Crash every hour on the hour, is the business editor feeling overextended on buy to lets and wanting Sunak to Do Something for Hard Working Homeowners?

    If property falls by about 50% it might be back to decent wage/price ratios.

    Shame for anyone who ends up in negative equity, but investments can go down as well as up.

    Not a shame for any property speculators, karma's only a bitch if you are.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,709
    HYUFD said:

    Technically true but not realistically true. It would require the Liberal Democrats to gain 50 to 60 seats from the Tories in constituencies like Mid Sussex, Epsom and Ewell, Chelmsford and Surrey Heath and a huge Tory to LD swing of 14 to 15%.

    More realistically Starmer could become PM gaining about 50 seats from the Tories with another 10 to 20 gains from the Tories coming from the Liberal Democrats. Then Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament even if Labour was still well short of an overall majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Big things are afoot though. The idea that the state should cushion those affected by economic ups and downs for example. The government safety net over covid enouraged this idea. I know everyone doesn't agree, but this sort of idea is about the worst thing that could ever get established in an electorate's mindset. It's Communism tomorrow and collapse the day after.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,825
    I hope nobody "bought the dip" of LUNA. Hyper-inflation at a rate that even Venezuela or Zimbabwe would look at in horror.

    Gone from $90 to $0.00009 / token in 3 days.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,454
    edited May 13
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/13/millions-homeowners-face-negative-equity-trap-property-collapse/

    Torygraph running horror stories about Impending Property Crash every hour on the hour, is the business editor feeling overextended on buy to lets and wanting Sunak to Do Something for Hard Working Homeowners?

    After 2 years of pretty much 10% *average* house price rises, colour me a little sceptical.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Technically true but not realistically true. It would require the Liberal Democrats to gain 50 to 60 seats from the Tories in constituencies like Mid Sussex, Epsom and Ewell, Chelmsford and Surrey Heath and a huge Tory to LD swing of 14 to 15%.

    More realistically Starmer could become PM gaining about 50 seats from the Tories with another 10 to 20 gains from the Tories coming from the Liberal Democrats. Then Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament even if Labour was still well short of an overall majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Big things are afoot though. The idea that the state should cushion those affected by economic ups and downs for example. The government safety net over covid enouraged this idea. I know everyone doesn't agree, but this sort of idea is about the worst thing that could ever get established in an electorate's mindset. It's Communism tomorrow and collapse the day after.
    Yes but the LDs are led by the Orange Book Davey, who is the least statist of the 3 main party leaders
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,709

    I hope nobody "bought the dip" of LUNA. Hyper-inflation at a rate that even Venezuela or Zimbabwe would look at in horror.

    Gone from $90 to $0.00009 / token in 3 days.

    They're all going to go.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,462
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.

    The most likely outcome at the next general election on current polls is 2010 in reverse. A hung parliament with Starmer as Cameron, Boris as Brown and Davey or Blackford as Clegg, even if Starmer forced a minority government not a coalition like Cameron
    Why does everybody have to be compared with another politician

    It really does seem rather weird
  • Most likely scenario for Labour is 260-280 seats in a hung parliament but they do now have a plausible route to get up to about 310 seats if they gain nearly 100 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and about 10 from the SNP (they were ahead of the SNP in the locals in a few seats like East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow E, Glasgow SW etc and not far behind in some others).

    The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.

    I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.

    Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,357
    Got to fly north tomorrow. I don’t want to leave Samos!

    Pythagoriou is adorable. Yes, a fair few tourists, but absolutely not trashed. Surrounded by mildly intriguing ancient ruins and glorious green woods

    I just had some weird toothless shark for dinner and it was MARV, served with home made taramasalata, fried saganaki and strangely good mashed potato. And a half liter of the local white in a metal jug for £2.50. All of it overlooking the harbour that Pythagoras knew as a boy

    Ahh, Europe
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,187

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,695
    edited May 13

    Given Labour's ongoing ability to shoot itself in the foot, relying on other parties making the necessary gains may still be the best plan.

    (I'm sure that some famous old bird has made the claim that every modern GE, even the ones with quirky results, has given the government that matched the mood of the country- correct party in power with the right sort of majority. For example, May in 2017 was less trusted with a majority than Cameron in 2015. Since the Conservatives are increasingly despised and Labour isn't despised but isn't really trusted, that points to Labour minority.)

    And usually matching the psychological mood at election time.
    Not convinced Boris is the man for hard economic times. Like Sunny Jim. Or Major for the dynamic optimism of the mid 90's.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited May 13
    Should also be stated that other than in 1945 and 1997, every other UK general election which has seen Labour come to power since 1929 ie 1929, 1964 and February 1974, there was a bigger Tory to Liberal swing than Tory to Labour swing
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,709
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Technically true but not realistically true. It would require the Liberal Democrats to gain 50 to 60 seats from the Tories in constituencies like Mid Sussex, Epsom and Ewell, Chelmsford and Surrey Heath and a huge Tory to LD swing of 14 to 15%.

    More realistically Starmer could become PM gaining about 50 seats from the Tories with another 10 to 20 gains from the Tories coming from the Liberal Democrats. Then Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament even if Labour was still well short of an overall majority

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    Big things are afoot though. The idea that the state should cushion those affected by economic ups and downs for example. The government safety net over covid enouraged this idea. I know everyone doesn't agree, but this sort of idea is about the worst thing that could ever get established in an electorate's mindset. It's Communism tomorrow and collapse the day after.
    Yes but the LDs are led by the Orange Book Davey, who is the least statist of the 3 main party leaders
    Under Davey they're not going anywhere. However there are some capable MPs in their ranks (all women).

    I can't think of a single voice against 'State Economy' and not pro daftness.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,588
    Margaret Atwood has her say on Roe.

    I INVENTED GILEAD. THE SUPREME COURT IS MAKING IT REAL
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/supreme-court-roe-handmaids-tale-abortion-margaret-atwood/629833/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,709
    HYUFD said:

    Should also be stated that other than in 1945 and 1997, every other UK general election which has seen Labour come to power since 1929 ie 1929, 1964 and February 1974, there was a bigger Tory to Liberal swing than Tory to Labour swing

    So 3/5?

  • interesting options

    If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.

    And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.




  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,575
    TimS said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.

    This time the Lib Dems will need to hold much firmer on getting PR.
    I hope they do. Just as long as we don't end up with STV.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/13/millions-homeowners-face-negative-equity-trap-property-collapse/

    Torygraph running horror stories about Impending Property Crash every hour on the hour, is the business editor feeling overextended on buy to lets and wanting Sunak to Do Something for Hard Working Homeowners?

    If property falls by about 50% it might be back to decent wage/price ratios.

    Shame for anyone who ends up in negative equity, but investments can go down as well as up.

    Not a shame for any property speculators, karma's only a bitch if you are.
    What a lovely bloke you are, does it not occur to you that people who have recently bought a house on a mortgage to live in are going to be the demographic most liable to negative equity?

    I hate to wind you up, but I bought 6 acres of fields last week (memo to self: never drink before bidding at auction, not even half a pint to steady the nerves) to extend my actual BY and protect it from housebuilders. And I am sitting on a cash molehill with a view to some second home shopping in the aftermath of Ther Crash.


  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    Evening all :)

    Like many other LDs, the coalition experience is seared into my memory. When (it's not an if), the Party next finds itself in the position of potential kingmaker or coalition partner, it should in my view do the following:

    1) Not be rushed by civil servants and the media into doing "something". The country can quite adequately function for a couple of weeks while new Government formation takes place. Indeed, some might argue having no Government for two weeks could be the best 14 days this country will experience.

    2) Think about the long term - this isn't just about short-term stability but longer term objectives.

    3) Decide the "red lines" and be prepared to walk away. Cameron realised Clegg wanted (and perhaps needed) a deal so his (Cameron's) position was far stronger than it seemed at the time. Davey should be able to walk away and offer support on a case by case basis. Starmer will be relying on everyone's desire to prevent a Conservative return - the truth will be the Conservatives will be too busy getting rid of Johnson and trying to find a new leader.

    There are no doubt other points but that's my openers.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745

    I hope nobody "bought the dip" of LUNA. Hyper-inflation at a rate that even Venezuela or Zimbabwe would look at in horror.

    Gone from $90 to $0.00009 / token in 3 days.

    At least you could eat the Tulip bulbs
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited May 13
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Should also be stated that other than in 1945 and 1997, every other UK general election which has seen Labour come to power since 1929 ie 1929, 1964 and February 1974, there was a bigger Tory to Liberal swing than Tory to Labour swing

    So 3/5?
    Yes, a majority of them. You could even argue in 1997 Blair was more of a Liberal than a Socialist making 4/5 with Attlee's 1945 win Labour's only real big win for a new socialist government where the main swing was Tory to Labour
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,709


    interesting options

    If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.

    And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.




    Hello MM

    I'd hope Labour stand down in their weakest 650 constituencies.

    I'm sure though that Labour is right to stand everywhere and I'll be amazed if they do any sort of pact. The same applies to the Tories, and it must have been a tough call in 2015.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,825

    I hope nobody "bought the dip" of LUNA. Hyper-inflation at a rate that even Venezuela or Zimbabwe would look at in horror.

    Gone from $90 to $0.00009 / token in 3 days.

    At least you could eat the Tulip bulbs
    I don't know if to laugh or cry that the really big cheerleaders for this ponzi called themselves the Lunatics....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745

    If Labour stand down in 60 places the Lib Dems don't have much choice.

    They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.

    Labour should not stand down in key seats - just not campaign
    Its this. In a democracy it is right that people can vote for a candidate of their choosing so there absolutely should be a Labour candidate in LD targets and vice versa. But they just don't campaign. At all. The only mention of their candidate is on the ballot paper, with activists sent elsewhere and the field left open for the challenger party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209


    interesting options

    If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.

    And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.




    That would involve them standing down in about 70 seats they are currently in second place!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,621
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Like many other LDs, the coalition experience is seared into my memory. When (it's not an if), the Party next finds itself in the position of potential kingmaker or coalition partner, it should in my view do the following:

    1) Not be rushed by civil servants and the media into doing "something". The country can quite adequately function for a couple of weeks while new Government formation takes place. Indeed, some might argue having no Government for two weeks could be the best 14 days this country will experience.

    2) Think about the long term - this isn't just about short-term stability but longer term objectives.

    3) Decide the "red lines" and be prepared to walk away. Cameron realised Clegg wanted (and perhaps needed) a deal so his (Cameron's) position was far stronger than it seemed at the time. Davey should be able to walk away and offer support on a case by case basis. Starmer will be relying on everyone's desire to prevent a Conservative return - the truth will be the Conservatives will be too busy getting rid of Johnson and trying to find a new leader.

    There are no doubt other points but that's my openers.

    L Dems squandered the best opportunity they have had to push to become one of the two main parties, or a third party on rough parity with Lab and Con during 2010 parliament.
    Stupid myopic short termist unprepared and unimaginative.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,419
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Like many other LDs, the coalition experience is seared into my memory. When (it's not an if), the Party next finds itself in the position of potential kingmaker or coalition partner, it should in my view do the following:

    1) Not be rushed by civil servants and the media into doing "something". The country can quite adequately function for a couple of weeks while new Government formation takes place. Indeed, some might argue having no Government for two weeks could be the best 14 days this country will experience.

    2) Think about the long term - this isn't just about short-term stability but longer term objectives.

    3) Decide the "red lines" and be prepared to walk away. Cameron realised Clegg wanted (and perhaps needed) a deal so his (Cameron's) position was far stronger than it seemed at the time. Davey should be able to walk away and offer support on a case by case basis. Starmer will be relying on everyone's desire to prevent a Conservative return - the truth will be the Conservatives will be too busy getting rid of Johnson and trying to find a new leader.

    There are no doubt other points but that's my openers.

    Surely point 3 is things they should decide on before an election.

    The idea that SKS could become PM as leader of a coalition of all the losers with barely 200 Labour MPs is, of course, totally fanciful. I get why Mike wants him to be PM but this nonsense just makes him look rattled.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,709
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Should also be stated that other than in 1945 and 1997, every other UK general election which has seen Labour come to power since 1929 ie 1929, 1964 and February 1974, there was a bigger Tory to Liberal swing than Tory to Labour swing

    So 3/5?
    Yes, a majority of them. You could even argue in 1997 Blair was more of a Liberal than a Socialist making 4/5 with Attlee's 1945 win Labour's only real big win for a new socialist government where the main swing was Tory to Labour
    You didn't arrive at any conclusion in your small sample stats. I take it you have none?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Most likely scenario for Labour is 260-280 seats in a hung parliament but they do now have a plausible route to get up to about 310 seats if they gain nearly 100 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and about 10 from the SNP (they were ahead of the SNP in the locals in a few seats like East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow E, Glasgow SW etc and not far behind in some others).

    The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.

    I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.

    Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.

    Yes. And I'm sure Surrey South West will go LibDem.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,419


    interesting options

    If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.

    And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.




    I bet that the voters would rumble their attempt to rig the system and punish the "progressive alliance".
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    TimS said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.

    This time the Lib Dems will need to hold much firmer on getting PR.
    I’m of the view that First Past the Post is the only thing keeping the Lib Dems alive. But then the PR faithful might not be too worried about that risk (and fair enough).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,947
    edited May 13
    Heathener said:

    Most likely scenario for Labour is 260-280 seats in a hung parliament but they do now have a plausible route to get up to about 310 seats if they gain nearly 100 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and about 10 from the SNP (they were ahead of the SNP in the locals in a few seats like East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow E, Glasgow SW etc and not far behind in some others).

    The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.

    I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.

    Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.

    Yes. And I'm sure Surrey South West will go LibDem.
    It won't exist. The new Farnham seat is 70% of it plus some of Hampshire East. It might go LD on a poor night for the Tories. Hunt will hold with 45% if he can get that
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,621
    Heathener said:

    Most likely scenario for Labour is 260-280 seats in a hung parliament but they do now have a plausible route to get up to about 310 seats if they gain nearly 100 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and about 10 from the SNP (they were ahead of the SNP in the locals in a few seats like East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow E, Glasgow SW etc and not far behind in some others).

    The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.

    I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.

    Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.

    Yes. And I'm sure Surrey South West will go LibDem.
    I'm not sure of anything this far in advance during a period of uncertainty on many fronts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,357
    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,419
    philiph said:

    Heathener said:

    Most likely scenario for Labour is 260-280 seats in a hung parliament but they do now have a plausible route to get up to about 310 seats if they gain nearly 100 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and about 10 from the SNP (they were ahead of the SNP in the locals in a few seats like East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow E, Glasgow SW etc and not far behind in some others).

    The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.

    I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.

    Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.

    Yes. And I'm sure Surrey South West will go LibDem.
    I'm not sure of anything this far in advance during a period of uncertainty on many fronts.
    Provided the boundary changes go through, we can be confident that the LDs won't win Surrey SW.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited May 13
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Should also be stated that other than in 1945 and 1997, every other UK general election which has seen Labour come to power since 1929 ie 1929, 1964 and February 1974, there was a bigger Tory to Liberal swing than Tory to Labour swing

    So 3/5?
    Yes, a majority of them. You could even argue in 1997 Blair was more of a Liberal than a Socialist making 4/5 with Attlee's 1945 win Labour's only real big win for a new socialist government where the main swing was Tory to Labour
    You didn't arrive at any conclusion in your small sample stats. I take it you have none?
    Yes I did, it is to get into power from opposition Labour normally either need a big swing from Tory to Liberal or to effectively be led by a Liberal leader like Blair.

    Much the same pattern was seen in the local elections last week where there was a bigger Tory to LD than Tory to Labour swing
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 16,049
    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    If it was me I'd go for Kalamata. Don't know it but always wanted to check out S Peloponnese, and on a 20 second google it seems to tick them boxes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748
    "Boris Johnson will scrap a ban on 'buy one get one free' junk food deals and a 9pm watershed for sugary snacks to help poorer families.

    The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."

    Mail


    This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    philiph said:


    L Dems squandered the best opportunity they have had to push to become one of the two main parties, or a third party on rough parity with Lab and Con during 2010 parliament.
    Stupid myopic short termist unprepared and unimaginative.

    You'll not be surprised to hear I completely disagree.

    In my political life, there have arguably been three occasions when the duopoly was under real pressure - 1981, with the birth of the SDP, 2003, when the Conservatives got rid of IDS under whose leadership they could easily have finished third in the 2005 election in terms of votes (if not seats) and 2019 when the Brexit Party was an existential threat to the Conservatives.

    As for 2010, I can assure you the Party war-gamed coalition scenarios. It's no secret many in the Party hoped the arithmetic would allow for both supporting the Conservatives and Labour to be options with the option to play the two main parties off against each other but that didn't happen.

    The second unexpected development was Cameron's bravura speech on the Friday afternoon offering Clegg a full and open discussion to which Clegg could not and would not decline. There had been an expectation in the Party the Conservatives would shun all deals and coalitions and would prefer to govern as a minority.

    Third, the unfolding crisis in Greece and the threat to the Eurozone (which was resolved by the Sunday evening after the election) piled enormous pressure on the coalition negotiators to conclude a deal - that pressure came from civil servants and the media.

    I'll add a fourth - Hague was brilliant in the negotiations and completely out-manoeuvred Huhne and the LDs who were unable to get anything of substance and were forced to accept junior ministerial roles and were compelled to vote for policies directly opposed by the party.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,282
    Applicant said:


    interesting options

    If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.

    And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.




    I bet that the voters would rumble their attempt to rig the system and punish the "progressive alliance".
    I doubt Labour would stand down but just put paper candidates and do no campaigning. However if they stood down in certain constituencies which included my part of the world I would happily vote Lib Dem . I didn’t see the Tories moaning when the Brexit Party stood down in certain areas in 2019.

    The number one priority for the progressive alliance is to rid the country of the Tories.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 7,709
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Should also be stated that other than in 1945 and 1997, every other UK general election which has seen Labour come to power since 1929 ie 1929, 1964 and February 1974, there was a bigger Tory to Liberal swing than Tory to Labour swing

    So 3/5?
    Yes, a majority of them. You could even argue in 1997 Blair was more of a Liberal than a Socialist making 4/5 with Attlee's 1945 win Labour's only real big win for a new socialist government where the main swing was Tory to Labour
    You didn't arrive at any conclusion in your small sample stats. I take it you have none?
    Yes I did, it is to get into power from opposition Labour normally either need a big swing from Tory to Liberal or to effectively be led by a Liberal leader like Blair.

    Much the same pattern was seen in the local elections last week where there was a bigger Tory to LD than Tory to Labour swing
    I don't entirely disagree, but I wouldn't want to walk those planks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,357
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    If it was me I'd go for Kalamata. Don't know it but always wanted to check out S Peloponnese, and on a 20 second google it seems to tick them boxes
    Weirdly, I was just looking at Kalimata! It’s quite near the Mani, which I’ve always wanted to see, thanks to Paddy Leigh-Fermor’s book. Pricey, tho
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,282

    "Boris Johnson will scrap a ban on 'buy one get one free' junk food deals and a 9pm watershed for sugary snacks to help poorer families.

    The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."

    Mail


    This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.

    The implication from Johnson seems to be poorer people feed their children crap food .
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745
    Applicant said:


    interesting options

    If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.

    And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.




    I bet that the voters would rumble their attempt to rig the system and punish the "progressive alliance".
    Rig the system.

    Like when BXP stood down in all those Tory seats.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,434
    Someone should do a study.

    Just with national broadsheet newspapers (so ignoring tabloid exaggerations) - go though every paper and list out everything reported that the Govt is "going to do".

    Come back at various intervals later and calculate what proportion have actually been done.

    The figure would be incredibly low - after say 3 years maybe about 10%?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 17,745
    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    Request:

    Please keep posting all of your travel writing stuff. Its genuinely interesting both in terms of the reportage about where you are but also the business end (like 3 weeks to finish your assignments).

    Please post less mouth foamy ranting and "wanker" attacks.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    tlg86 said:

    TimS said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.

    This time the Lib Dems will need to hold much firmer on getting PR.
    I’m of the view that First Past the Post is the only thing keeping the Lib Dems alive. But then the PR faithful might not be too worried about that risk (and fair enough).
    You're right - it's quite possible under STV there would be no such party as the "Liberal Democrats" but then you wouldn't have the Conservative and Labour parties in their current forms either.

    There would be a party for the social conservatives, one for the liberal conservatives, one for the liberal radicals, perhaps a social democratic party and a more overtly socialist party.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748
    nico679 said:

    "Boris Johnson will scrap a ban on 'buy one get one free' junk food deals and a 9pm watershed for sugary snacks to help poorer families.

    The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."

    Mail


    This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.

    The implication from Johnson seems to be poorer people feed their children crap food .
    That's because non of them can cook or budget a meal according to People's Tribune Lee Anderson.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,412
    edited May 13
    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    Option 1 - if you like reasonably quiet, but not deserted, islands with stunning landscapes - Amorgos.

    Option 2 - a very interesting part of the Southeastern mainland - Leonidio. Beautiful landscapes and coastline again, food festivals at certain times of year, and incredibly, a few miles inland, there's a few people who speak a dialect of Doric Greek, like nowhere else in Greece ( or the world, for that matter ).

    As a partial option 3, as you mentioned : Mani, a little further to the west, is also a very interesting place.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,195
    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,695

    "Boris Johnson will scrap a ban on 'buy one get one free' junk food deals and a 9pm watershed for sugary snacks to help poorer families.

    The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."

    Mail


    This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.

    Those are two of the worst ideas I've heard yet.
    IF the government wants to help poor families then money will need to be spent.
    At the moment they are flailing around for free stuff. Like the MOT business.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 19,357

    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    Option 1 - if you like reasonably quiet, but not deserted, islands with stunning landscapes - Amorgos.

    Option 2 - a very interesting part of the Southeastern mainland - Leonidio. Beautiful landscapes and coastline again, food festivals at certain times of year, and incredibly, a few miles inland, there's a few people who speak a dialect of Doric Greek, like nowhere else in Greece ( or the world, for that matter ).

    As a partial option 3, Mani a little further to the west is also a very interesting place.
    ooh. Will look at both, thanks
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,695
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    Spoiler alert.
    It won't.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,170

    Most likely scenario for Labour is 260-280 seats in a hung parliament but they do now have a plausible route to get up to about 310 seats if they gain nearly 100 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and about 10 from the SNP (they were ahead of the SNP in the locals in a few seats like East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow E, Glasgow SW etc and not far behind in some others).

    The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.

    I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.

    Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.

    Broadly agree, but with a qualification, because there is no point in using the current situation as a guide to an outcome.

    In general terms only two outcomes look likely: Lab minority or Tory majority government. The window for any other outcome is tiny. None is above 5-10%. That's plain maths + the actual situation we are now in + realism. The odds generally are just wrong.

    There is far too much still to happen to be able to assess the relative likelihoods of the two major options. Both outcomes are highly fallible - far too many on the left actually prefer to lose elections and do their best to make it happen. The Tories woes need no explanation from me. Neither remotely deserves to form the next government but one of them will.

    Therefore the real chances are roughly Labour led minority (324 seats or less) 45%. Tory majority (326+) 45%. 10% bar those.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,282
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    The DUP will keep saying no . The handmaidens of a hard Brexit won’t be happy until the border goes between NI and Ireland. They really are a loathsome bunch of bigots .
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Leon - Kotor Bay and rest of Montenegro.

    You may recall they gave the Great Gatsby a medal.

    Once ruled by dynasty of fighter-poet Prince Bishops. Tall mountaineers never conquered by the Turks.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,695
    stodge said:

    tlg86 said:

    TimS said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.

    This time the Lib Dems will need to hold much firmer on getting PR.
    I’m of the view that First Past the Post is the only thing keeping the Lib Dems alive. But then the PR faithful might not be too worried about that risk (and fair enough).
    You're right - it's quite possible under STV there would be no such party as the "Liberal Democrats" but then you wouldn't have the Conservative and Labour parties in their current forms either.

    There would be a party for the social conservatives, one for the liberal conservatives, one for the liberal radicals, perhaps a social democratic party and a more overtly socialist party.
    Add a Green Party and a far-right anti-immigrant one and you've got the German Parliament.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,442
    Whereabouts in the country should someone visiting Greece for the first time go?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,910

    "Boris Johnson will scrap a ban on 'buy one get one free' junk food deals and a 9pm watershed for sugary snacks to help poorer families.

    The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."

    Mail


    This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.

    Hmmm.

    I have no problem with taxing things that are unhealthy so long as it is workable. Banning them I'm less sure of.

    Can't we focus on good quality school meals particularly in primary schools?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,412
    edited May 13
    Andy_JS said:

    Whereabouts in the country should someone visiting Greece for the first time go?

    ( puts Travel Agent hat on )

    What sort of thing are you looking for ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,695
    edited May 13
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    The DUP will keep saying no . The handmaidens of a hard Brexit won’t be happy until the border goes between NI and Ireland. They really are a loathsome bunch of bigots .
    Do you think?
    I suspect they'll never serve as a second to Sinn Fein. The protocol is a figleaf for the real issue.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    Give them a threat instead of an immediate break. It might work. Let's hope the Tories can defy gravity.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,999
    algarkirk said:

    Most likely scenario for Labour is 260-280 seats in a hung parliament but they do now have a plausible route to get up to about 310 seats if they gain nearly 100 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and about 10 from the SNP (they were ahead of the SNP in the locals in a few seats like East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow E, Glasgow SW etc and not far behind in some others).

    The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.

    I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.

    Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.

    Broadly agree, but with a qualification, because there is no point in using the current situation as a guide to an outcome.

    In general terms only two outcomes look likely: Lab minority or Tory majority government. The window for any other outcome is tiny. None is above 5-10%. That's plain maths + the actual situation we are now in + realism. The odds generally are just wrong.

    There is far too much still to happen to be able to assess the relative likelihoods of the two major options. Both outcomes are highly fallible - far too many on the left actually prefer to lose elections and do their best to make it happen. The Tories woes need no explanation from me. Neither remotely deserves to form the next government but one of them will.

    Therefore the real chances are roughly Labour led minority (324 seats or less) 45%. Tory majority (326+) 45%. 10% bar those.

    A Lab-LD(-PC or Green) Coalition is surely plausible, even if you can mathematically bracket it with the minority.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,462
    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    No - just sensible
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,263
    On the header, I know Mike posits a theoretical possibility that Starmer could be PM even with no Labour gains. However, on 202 seats even I don't think a Labour-led government would have legitimacy. Off the top of my head, Labour would need to win at least 260-280 seats for any prospective coalition or minority government to have a chance of being sustainable. I suspect, though, that if Labour gains power but wins less than around 300 seats a second general election would follow within a year or so.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,282
    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    The DUP will keep saying no . The handmaidens of a hard Brexit won’t be happy until the border goes between NI and Ireland. They really are a loathsome bunch of bigots .
    Do you think?
    I suspect they'll never serve as a second to Sinn Fein. The protocol is a figleaf for the real issue.
    Their plan is to force more elections where they hope unionists will coalesce around their position and they hope to regain first place . I do wish the media would take them to rights more often on their Brexit stance and how they are now moaning over something they enabled .
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    tlg86 said:

    TimS said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think someone on here described the next election as 2010 in reverse. The scenario in the header would be 2010 on steroids.

    This time the Lib Dems will need to hold much firmer on getting PR.
    I’m of the view that First Past the Post is the only thing keeping the Lib Dems alive. But then the PR faithful might not be too worried about that risk (and fair enough).
    Don't disagree and as a liberal I am happy with that. I suspect I will be in a small liberal party. Some will leave to the new SDP and others to the new Centrist Conservatives. There will be the Socialists and the Greens and a Right wing conservative party.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223
    Applicant said:


    interesting options

    If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.

    And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.




    I bet that the voters would rumble their attempt to rig the system and punish the "progressive alliance".
    Panicking a little?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,695
    nico679 said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    The DUP will keep saying no . The handmaidens of a hard Brexit won’t be happy until the border goes between NI and Ireland. They really are a loathsome bunch of bigots .
    Do you think?
    I suspect they'll never serve as a second to Sinn Fein. The protocol is a figleaf for the real issue.
    Their plan is to force more elections where they hope unionists will coalesce around their position and they hope to regain first place . I do wish the media would take them to rights more often on their Brexit stance and how they are now moaning over something they enabled .
    Yes. That is the plan. Edwin Poots basically said as much on the radio at the weekend.
    They intend to make people vote again and again till they get the right result.
    Ironically cheered on by the Brexit ultras.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,412
    edited May 13
    Andy_JS said:

    Whereabouts in the country should someone visiting Greece for the first time go?

    I'm guessing maybe a first time visitor might want somewhere not too quiet or busy, but manageable, with a bit character. Sifnos is a very pleasant and relaxing, quite friendly island along these lines, particularly if you stay in the old town of Apollonia.

    Another very gently beautiful island is Patmos, with various religious legends attached to it - probably best to go out of season nowadays, though, as it's a little busier than Sifnos these days.

    Santorini - stunning beauty but avoid peak season at all costs - incredibly crowded and busy at that time, and has become like Venice during those seasons.

    The smaller Dodecanese islands - a lot of interesting stuff there if you want something much more off the beaten track, quite starkly and barrenly beautiful, and a long way from the mainland.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313

    Most likely scenario for Labour is 260-280 seats in a hung parliament but they do now have a plausible route to get up to about 310 seats if they gain nearly 100 seats from the Tories in England and Wales and about 10 from the SNP (they were ahead of the SNP in the locals in a few seats like East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E, Glasgow E, Glasgow SW etc and not far behind in some others).

    The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.

    I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.

    Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.

    You’re the guy that said that the Scottish Tories losing 20 councillors would be “a bad day”. They lost 63.

    And you are making very elementary errors. East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E are not being contested next time.

    Lanark and Hamilton East is being split into 5 new constituencies. Baxter predicts 4 will be SNP and 1 Con. None Labour.

    The bit of the old East Lothian that becomes the new East Lothian Coast looks like a Labour gain, but not the bit going into Edinburgh East.

    Baxter has the two Glasgow seats you name as likely SNP holds. Parliamentary elections are not local elections.

    Do your homework.
  • NotThatNickNotThatNick Posts: 16
    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    Try Folegandros.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,027

    Leon - Kotor Bay and rest of Montenegro.

    You may recall they gave the Great Gatsby a medal.

    Once ruled by dynasty of fighter-poet Prince Bishops. Tall mountaineers never conquered by the Turks.

    'Once ruled by dynasty of fighter-poet Prince Bishops'

    The finest Leon catnip known to man.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,412
    edited May 13

    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    Try Folegandros.
    Very near Santorini, with some of the landscape of Santorini but without the people, which I agree makes it a good choice. It's become pretty upmarket and expensive too nowadays, though, which should probably be borne in mind by the visitor as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,513

    Leon - Kotor Bay and rest of Montenegro.

    You may recall they gave the Great Gatsby a medal.

    Once ruled by dynasty of fighter-poet Prince Bishops. Tall mountaineers never conquered by the Turks.

    'Once ruled by dynasty of fighter-poet Prince Bishops'

    The finest Leon catnip known to man.
    If they also owned great vineyards, definitely.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807

    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    Try Folegandros.
    Seconded.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    I know this isn’t your question, but Armenia: I did a week’s tour with a friend in 1999. They were fresh(ish) out of the first Nagorno Karabakh war, and memories were very raw. The place was on its knees. The countryside was generally depressing albeit spectacular. No peasant economy at all, the USSR industrialised Armenia and hollowed out the farming economy.

    But, tourism and beauty wise, the best two bits for me were the high pass from Martuni on lake Sevan (where we stayed on the floor of a depressed American peace corps volunteer) to Yeghegnadzor, and the area in the far South right on the border with Iran, where they thought we were geologists.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,143
    nico679 said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    The DUP will keep saying no . The handmaidens of a hard Brexit won’t be happy until the border goes between NI and Ireland. They really are a loathsome bunch of bigots .
    Do you think?
    I suspect they'll never serve as a second to Sinn Fein. The protocol is a figleaf for the real issue.
    Their plan is to force more elections where they hope unionists will coalesce around their position and they hope to regain first place . I do wish the media would take them to rights more often on their Brexit stance and how they are now moaning over something they enabled .
    I'm asure HYUFD would be quite happy with that, not to mention a bit of armed secession. The Tories were, before.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,419
    stodge said:

    philiph said:


    L Dems squandered the best opportunity they have had to push to become one of the two main parties, or a third party on rough parity with Lab and Con during 2010 parliament.
    Stupid myopic short termist unprepared and unimaginative.

    You'll not be surprised to hear I completely disagree.

    In my political life, there have arguably been three occasions when the duopoly was under real pressure - 1981, with the birth of the SDP, 2003, when the Conservatives got rid of IDS under whose leadership they could easily have finished third in the 2005 election in terms of votes (if not seats) and 2019 when the Brexit Party was an existential threat to the Conservatives.

    As for 2010, I can assure you the Party war-gamed coalition scenarios. It's no secret many in the Party hoped the arithmetic would allow for both supporting the Conservatives and Labour to be options with the option to play the two main parties off against each other but that didn't happen.

    The second unexpected development was Cameron's bravura speech on the Friday afternoon offering Clegg a full and open discussion to which Clegg could not and would not decline. There had been an expectation in the Party the Conservatives would shun all deals and coalitions and would prefer to govern as a minority.

    Third, the unfolding crisis in Greece and the threat to the Eurozone (which was resolved by the Sunday evening after the election) piled enormous pressure on the coalition negotiators to conclude a deal - that pressure came from civil servants and the media.

    I'll add a fourth - Hague was brilliant in the negotiations and completely out-manoeuvred Huhne and the LDs who were unable to get anything of substance and were forced to accept junior ministerial roles and were compelled to vote for policies directly opposed by the party.

    Point 4 is really just that the maths didn't give the LDs many options - there was no possible stable Labour-led coalition so the choice was the coalition we had or a short-term minority Cameron government followed by another election where the LDs would most likely get punished for not going into government.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,143

    Scott_xP said:

    Truss bottles it...

    New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal

    - She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU

    - Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive

    -
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan

    No - just sensible
    Waving hands in the air is sensible?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,453
    Oh and Naxos is an excellent island because it’s big, like a mini mainland (a bit like Crete).
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,419
    edited May 13

    Applicant said:


    interesting options

    If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.

    And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.




    I bet that the voters would rumble their attempt to rig the system and punish the "progressive alliance".
    Rig the system.

    Like when BXP stood down in all those Tory seats.
    Which was pointless in the circumstances. Rigging the system would have been standing down in the seats Boris needed to win, which they didn't...

    And even without that, the analogy fails - the LDs and Labour are supposed to be serious major political parties that compete with each other. BXP was a single issue pressure group.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,412
    edited May 13
    TimS said:

    Oh and Naxos is an excellent island because it’s big, like a mini mainland (a bit like Crete).

    Crete ofcourse being almost like a whole country in itself, too - lots to see there, but one tends to need a car.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,143

    "Boris Johnson will scrap a ban on 'buy one get one free' junk food deals and a 9pm watershed for sugary snacks to help poorer families.

    The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."

    Mail


    This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.

    Hmmm.

    I have no problem with taxing things that are unhealthy so long as it is workable. Banning them I'm less sure of.

    Can't we focus on good quality school meals particularly in primary schools?
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jan/26/jamie-oliver-education-secretary-school-food-plans

    'Critics say one reason for the decline in food quality and choice has been the Department for Education’s failure to increase payments for school food, including infant free school meals available for all children in the first years of primary school. The government pays just £2.34 for each child’s food per day, a rate that has barely changed since 2011'
  • NotThatNickNotThatNick Posts: 16

    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    Try Folegandros.
    Very near Santorini, with some of the landscape of Santorini but without the people, which I agree makes it a good choice. It's become pretty upmarket and expensive too nowadays, though, which should probably be borne in mind by the visitor as well.
    In May and Early July and the second half of September it is beautifully sedate. I'd say it was moderately upmarket without being glitzy. It has the most beautiful Chora in the Cyclades in my opinion. And a real farming village as the only other significant settlement. And there is some really good authentic food.

    But I'm biased as I have been nearly every year for 20 years.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,419
    dixiedean said:

    "Boris Johnson will scrap a ban on 'buy one get one free' junk food deals and a 9pm watershed for sugary snacks to help poorer families.

    The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."

    Mail


    This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.

    Those are two of the worst ideas I've heard yet.
    IF the government wants to help poor families then money will need to be spent.
    At the moment they are flailing around for free stuff. Like the MOT business.
    The policies themselves are silly, not the scrapping of them.

    And where is the government supposed to get the money to spend?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,825
    edited May 13

    "Boris Johnson will scrap a ban on 'buy one get one free' junk food deals and a 9pm watershed for sugary snacks to help poorer families.

    The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."

    Mail


    This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.

    The policies were stupid when they were announced, but I don't think anybody thinks they make a huge difference over cost of living, unless you literally live off chocolate bars and pizzas.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,412

    Leon said:

    OK travel question. I am determined to go to Georgia/Armenia in about 3 weeks, to finish my tour (and assignments) but I need to kill time in some adorable part of Greece (or neighbouring countries - Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey - but preferably Greece)

    Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place

    Does such a thing still exist?!

    Try Folegandros.
    Very near Santorini, with some of the landscape of Santorini but without the people, which I agree makes it a good choice. It's become pretty upmarket and expensive too nowadays, though, which should probably be borne in mind by the visitor as well.
    In May and Early July and the second half of September it is beautifully sedate. I'd say it was moderately upmarket without being glitzy. It has the most beautiful Chora in the Cyclades in my opinion. And a real farming village as the only other significant settlement. And there is some really good authentic food.

    But I'm biased as I have been nearly every year for 20 years.
    No indeed, I don't think you're being biased, it is a beautiful island.
  • NotThatNickNotThatNick Posts: 16
    TimS said:

    Oh and Naxos is an excellent island because it’s big, like a mini mainland (a bit like Crete).

    Naxos is an intersting big island with an economy based on a lot more than tourism, but I'd suggest Milos instead. Volcanic, like Santorini, but much more beautiful coloured rock formations and not overrun by tourists and expensive jewellers.

    Stay in Plaka rather than Adamas - there are some places with amazing views over the field where the Venus de Milo was found across the bay in the middle of the island.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313

    From 12 years ago:

    The leader of the Social Democrats, Mona Sahlin, is highly critical of the threat by Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan to expel over 100,000 Armenians living in Turkey.

    https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/3567084

    How do you think this will play in Sweden @StuartDickson ?

    I seem to remember you were highly sceptical about Sweden wishing to join NATO. Times have changed, of course...
    Not sure about the “highly”, but I am a sceptic by nature 😉

    My main concern is the unseemly rush, much worse in Finland than in Sweden. Just that alone was always going to be problematic for certain NATO members: most folk don’t like being pushed into sudden drastic changes.

    I will certainly admit that I misjudged Swedish public opinion, but in my defence the opinion polling of the last few decades has never indicated enthusiasm for joining NATO. Quite the opposite.

    How will it play in Sweden: a hell of a lot of people are going to be mighty relieved! But the majority (probably the majority?) are going to be very worried now. Andersson and the Borgerliga parties seem to have made an historic error of judgment that very seriously threatens Sweden and Finland’s security. Boris Johnson is just a here today/gone tomorrow politician, and our PMs must be rueing the day they entertained the Clown.
    Hmm. "Unseemly rush". But surely if you're gonna do it, do it now when Putin is up to his oxters and can't, practically, do much about it. No? Why wait?
    Imagine that England was not a member of a major international body, and opinion polling during many decades has shown that the population were perfectly happy not being members of the international body. Then, very suddenly, something unexpected happens that induces many elected parliamentarians to completely change their minds on membership. Now, this is a big deal: if England joins she will gain some rights and privileges which could/might prove useful. On the other hand there come some very cumbersome responsibilities and costs too. Should the politicians just “jump” the electorate into their brand new lust for membership? Or should the nation have a civilised debate about the pros and cons and take a calm decision at a referendum?

    I consider the “jumping” of the Finnish and Swedish nations to be an undemocratic national disgrace. Both countries should be ashamed of themselves. Turkey might just have done us a big favour.
This discussion has been closed.