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Starmer can become PM without LAB making a single gain – politicalbetting.com
Starmer can become PM without LAB making a single gain – politicalbetting.com
One of the features of the next general election is that the seat targets for Labour and Tories will be totally different because Johnson’s party would find it very hard to form a coalition in the event of falling below the 325 seats required for a majority.
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Torygraph running horror stories about Impending Property Crash every hour on the hour, is the business editor feeling overextended on buy to lets and wanting Sunak to Do Something for Hard Working Homeowners?
More realistically Starmer could become PM gaining about 50 seats from the Tories with another 10 to 20 gains from the Tories coming from the Liberal Democrats. Then Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament even if Labour was still well short of an overall majority
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
(I'm sure that some famous old bird has made the claim that every modern GE, even the ones with quirky results, has given the government that matched the mood of the country- correct party in power with the right sort of majority. For example, May in 2017 was less trusted with a majority than Cameron in 2015. Since the Conservatives are increasingly despised and Labour isn't despised but isn't really trusted, that points to Labour minority.)
On thread, possible but long term deadly for Labour, would quickly become 'we didnt want you and now everything is your fault'
They aren't dumb enough to enable the tories again.
Shame for anyone who ends up in negative equity, but investments can go down as well as up.
Not a shame for any property speculators, karma's only a bitch if you are.
Gone from $90 to $0.00009 / token in 3 days.
It really does seem rather weird
The West Midlands is the only region where Labour will struggle to make hardly any gains from the Tories I think.
I'd still be more cautious about the LDs than Labour given recent precedents although it would be very surprising if they did not gain at least 10 seats now even if I can see a few Tory MPs like William Wragg just about defying gravity.
Seats like Guildford, Wimbledon and S Cambs are surely complete shoe ins for he LDs and their chances of gaining seats like Esher and Walton, Hitchin and Harpenden and even Woking have increased further.
Pythagoriou is adorable. Yes, a fair few tourists, but absolutely not trashed. Surrounded by mildly intriguing ancient ruins and glorious green woods
I just had some weird toothless shark for dinner and it was MARV, served with home made taramasalata, fried saganaki and strangely good mashed potato. And a half liter of the local white in a metal jug for £2.50. All of it overlooking the harbour that Pythagoras knew as a boy
Ahh, Europe
Not convinced Boris is the man for hard economic times. Like Sunny Jim. Or Major for the dynamic optimism of the mid 90's.
I can't think of a single voice against 'State Economy' and not pro daftness.
I INVENTED GILEAD. THE SUPREME COURT IS MAKING IT REAL
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/supreme-court-roe-handmaids-tale-abortion-margaret-atwood/629833/
interesting options
If Labour stood down in their weakest 200 constituencies for just one election the ensuing chaos could be quite refreshing.
And I'd bet we get a Labour Government.
I hate to wind you up, but I bought 6 acres of fields last week (memo to self: never drink before bidding at auction, not even half a pint to steady the nerves) to extend my actual BY and protect it from housebuilders. And I am sitting on a cash molehill with a view to some second home shopping in the aftermath of Ther Crash.
Like many other LDs, the coalition experience is seared into my memory. When (it's not an if), the Party next finds itself in the position of potential kingmaker or coalition partner, it should in my view do the following:
1) Not be rushed by civil servants and the media into doing "something". The country can quite adequately function for a couple of weeks while new Government formation takes place. Indeed, some might argue having no Government for two weeks could be the best 14 days this country will experience.
2) Think about the long term - this isn't just about short-term stability but longer term objectives.
3) Decide the "red lines" and be prepared to walk away. Cameron realised Clegg wanted (and perhaps needed) a deal so his (Cameron's) position was far stronger than it seemed at the time. Davey should be able to walk away and offer support on a case by case basis. Starmer will be relying on everyone's desire to prevent a Conservative return - the truth will be the Conservatives will be too busy getting rid of Johnson and trying to find a new leader.
There are no doubt other points but that's my openers.
I'd hope Labour stand down in their weakest 650 constituencies.
I'm sure though that Labour is right to stand everywhere and I'll be amazed if they do any sort of pact. The same applies to the Tories, and it must have been a tough call in 2015.
Stupid myopic short termist unprepared and unimaginative.
The idea that SKS could become PM as leader of a coalition of all the losers with barely 200 Labour MPs is, of course, totally fanciful. I get why Mike wants him to be PM but this nonsense just makes him look rattled.
Ideally it will be a coastal part of the mainland or an island. I’m looking for that perfect island, basically, just enough development - good tavernas, hotels, bars, Wi-Fi - to make it highly habitable, but not overrun with tourists and discos. I don’t mind a few hours on a ferry if it gets me to the right place
Does such a thing still exist?!
Much the same pattern was seen in the local elections last week where there was a bigger Tory to LD than Tory to Labour swing
The policies are being pushed back for at least a year in an attempt to soften the blow of soaring living costs but they could be ditched entirely."
Mail
This government is all over the place. They spend most of their time undoing what they wanted to introduce a year or two before. A border in the Irish Sea being the obvious main example.
In my political life, there have arguably been three occasions when the duopoly was under real pressure - 1981, with the birth of the SDP, 2003, when the Conservatives got rid of IDS under whose leadership they could easily have finished third in the 2005 election in terms of votes (if not seats) and 2019 when the Brexit Party was an existential threat to the Conservatives.
As for 2010, I can assure you the Party war-gamed coalition scenarios. It's no secret many in the Party hoped the arithmetic would allow for both supporting the Conservatives and Labour to be options with the option to play the two main parties off against each other but that didn't happen.
The second unexpected development was Cameron's bravura speech on the Friday afternoon offering Clegg a full and open discussion to which Clegg could not and would not decline. There had been an expectation in the Party the Conservatives would shun all deals and coalitions and would prefer to govern as a minority.
Third, the unfolding crisis in Greece and the threat to the Eurozone (which was resolved by the Sunday evening after the election) piled enormous pressure on the coalition negotiators to conclude a deal - that pressure came from civil servants and the media.
I'll add a fourth - Hague was brilliant in the negotiations and completely out-manoeuvred Huhne and the LDs who were unable to get anything of substance and were forced to accept junior ministerial roles and were compelled to vote for policies directly opposed by the party.
The number one priority for the progressive alliance is to rid the country of the Tories.
Like when BXP stood down in all those Tory seats.
Just with national broadsheet newspapers (so ignoring tabloid exaggerations) - go though every paper and list out everything reported that the Govt is "going to do".
Come back at various intervals later and calculate what proportion have actually been done.
The figure would be incredibly low - after say 3 years maybe about 10%?
Please keep posting all of your travel writing stuff. Its genuinely interesting both in terms of the reportage about where you are but also the business end (like 3 weeks to finish your assignments).
Please post less mouth foamy ranting and "wanker" attacks.
There would be a party for the social conservatives, one for the liberal conservatives, one for the liberal radicals, perhaps a social democratic party and a more overtly socialist party.
Option 2 - a very interesting part of the Southeastern mainland - Leonidio. Beautiful landscapes and coastline again, food festivals at certain times of year, and incredibly, a few miles inland, there's a few people who speak a dialect of Doric Greek, like nowhere else in Greece ( or the world, for that matter ).
As a partial option 3, as you mentioned : Mani, a little further to the west, is also a very interesting place.
New: Liz Truss is preparing to reveal how the UK would legislate to override the Brexit deal
- She won’t introduce legislation immediately, wants to keep talking with the EU
- Hopes outlining plan will bring DUP back to NI executive
-
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/truss-prepares-to-reveal-uk-s-plan-for-overriding-brexit-deal?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @EllenAMilligan
IF the government wants to help poor families then money will need to be spent.
At the moment they are flailing around for free stuff. Like the MOT business.
It won't.
In general terms only two outcomes look likely: Lab minority or Tory majority government. The window for any other outcome is tiny. None is above 5-10%. That's plain maths + the actual situation we are now in + realism. The odds generally are just wrong.
There is far too much still to happen to be able to assess the relative likelihoods of the two major options. Both outcomes are highly fallible - far too many on the left actually prefer to lose elections and do their best to make it happen. The Tories woes need no explanation from me. Neither remotely deserves to form the next government but one of them will.
Therefore the real chances are roughly Labour led minority (324 seats or less) 45%. Tory majority (326+) 45%. 10% bar those.
You may recall they gave the Great Gatsby a medal.
Once ruled by dynasty of fighter-poet Prince Bishops. Tall mountaineers never conquered by the Turks.
I have no problem with taxing things that are unhealthy so long as it is workable. Banning them I'm less sure of.
Can't we focus on good quality school meals particularly in primary schools?
What sort of thing are you looking for ?
I suspect they'll never serve as a second to Sinn Fein. The protocol is a figleaf for the real issue.
They intend to make people vote again and again till they get the right result.
Ironically cheered on by the Brexit ultras.
Another very gently beautiful island is Patmos, with various religious legends attached to it - probably best to go out of season nowadays, though, as it's a little busier than Sifnos these days.
Santorini - stunning beauty but avoid peak season at all costs - incredibly crowded and busy at that time, and has become like Venice during those seasons.
The smaller Dodecanese islands - a lot of interesting stuff there if you want something much more off the beaten track, quite starkly and barrenly beautiful, and a long way from the mainland.
And you are making very elementary errors. East Lothian, Lanark and Hamilton E are not being contested next time.
Lanark and Hamilton East is being split into 5 new constituencies. Baxter predicts 4 will be SNP and 1 Con. None Labour.
The bit of the old East Lothian that becomes the new East Lothian Coast looks like a Labour gain, but not the bit going into Edinburgh East.
Baxter has the two Glasgow seats you name as likely SNP holds. Parliamentary elections are not local elections.
Do your homework.
The finest Leon catnip known to man.
But, tourism and beauty wise, the best two bits for me were the high pass from Martuni on lake Sevan (where we stayed on the floor of a depressed American peace corps volunteer) to Yeghegnadzor, and the area in the far South right on the border with Iran, where they thought we were geologists.
And even without that, the analogy fails - the LDs and Labour are supposed to be serious major political parties that compete with each other. BXP was a single issue pressure group.
'Critics say one reason for the decline in food quality and choice has been the Department for Education’s failure to increase payments for school food, including infant free school meals available for all children in the first years of primary school. The government pays just £2.34 for each child’s food per day, a rate that has barely changed since 2011'
But I'm biased as I have been nearly every year for 20 years.
And where is the government supposed to get the money to spend?
Stay in Plaka rather than Adamas - there are some places with amazing views over the field where the Venus de Milo was found across the bay in the middle of the island.
I consider the “jumping” of the Finnish and Swedish nations to be an undemocratic national disgrace. Both countries should be ashamed of themselves. Turkey might just have done us a big favour.