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Some positive Survation Red Wall polling for LAB – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Wow. Key modeller who demanded more lockdowns admits too much weight was given to models - a regular area of strong discussion on PB (where there are many who are more numerate than most peeps) at the time.

    I am going to be charitable and say that this is a very important if belated contribution to the forthcoming public inquiry on covid.



    "Britain relied too much on 'very scary' SAGE models to decide on lockdowns, according to the man behind some of those very projections.

    Just months after SAGE predicted 6,000 deaths per day and called for a Christmas lockdown in response to Omicron, Professor John Edmunds said the models were only supposed to be 'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers.

    He accepted the models failed to account for the economic harm and the knock-on health effects that lockdowns caused."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10804993/SAGE-models-scary-held-weight-says-lockdown-architect-them.html

    DM being weaselly in the last sentence in that quote. WAsn't his job to do that, was it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,175

    ISW
    @TheStudyofWar
    ·
    10m
    The three key takeaways from the 4/9 report:

    1) Russia is unlikely to be able to mass combat power for the fight in eastern Ukraine proportionate to the number of troops and BTGs it sends there.
    ISW
    @TheStudyofWar
    ·
    10m
    2. The Russian military continues to suffer from devastating morale, recruitment, and retention problems that seriously undermine its ability to fight effectively.

    3. The outcome of forthcoming Russian operations in eastern Ukraine remains very much in question.

    https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1524437300574310401
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    edited May 2022
    Farooq said:

    You either know it already or you didn't go listen. It's 6 minutes of magnificence and you replied before 6 minutes were up! There's no other song like it. Nobody else would write a song like that. Say what you like about Pulp, they are madly unique.
    I've listened to it - hasn't grabbed me yet. Sometimes tracks need a few listens to sink in for me.

    I've re-discovered Sparks. Take a listen to (and watch) "My Baby's Taking Me Home" (official video) on YouTube. I'm hooked on it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,951

    Wow. Key modeller who demanded more lockdowns admits too much weight was given to models - a regular area of strong discussion on PB (where there are many who are more numerate than most peeps) at the time.

    I am going to be charitable and say that this is a very important if belated contribution to the forthcoming public inquiry on covid.



    "Britain relied too much on 'very scary' SAGE models to decide on lockdowns, according to the man behind some of those very projections.

    Just months after SAGE predicted 6,000 deaths per day and called for a Christmas lockdown in response to Omicron, Professor John Edmunds said the models were only supposed to be 'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers.

    He accepted the models failed to account for the economic harm and the knock-on health effects that lockdowns caused."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10804993/SAGE-models-scary-held-weight-says-lockdown-architect-them.html

    That will chime with millions
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516

    Probably sounding cynical but trying to be honest, the answer is, Lucky, Boris pressed on partygate and beergate at the news conference today refuses to answer with “we have moved on to far more important things now.”

    I expect operation save big dog is still working to shore up his position. Things like todays visits and promises are his best way to do that maybe? Considering his Treasury or cabinet won’t back his promise in debate yesterday to help families with cost of living crisis, what else can operation saving big dog work with this week? 🤔

    HYUFD, playing these deals down in contrast to Big G, summed up todays entente cordially deals by pointing out in this thread, they are not “legally binding” in the same way as NATO membership, leaving us in no doubt once NATO membership deals come along, these deals become superseded even mostly meaningless is what I took from it.

    However, correct me where I am wrong, I understand HY is also not being open about “legally bindings” if a NATO ally is attacked - we could just send Putin a stiff letter and call in his ambassador for a dressing down, this is all we are “legally obliged” to do in NATO membership?
    It's the abandoning of all pretence to be governing in the interests of the people in favour of playing with tin soldiers that really grips my scrotes. It was probably always thus, but at least in the pomp of Empire we could afford it. Poor Germany and the pelters that they get for trying to keep the lights on and ensure their population can have a shower every day. That's how a Government is actually meant to behave.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Lots of people on PB cannot cook and have no discernible interest in food. It really is quite a sad spectacle to hear of grown professional men relishing ready meals, instant coffee and being unable to navigate a saucepan.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    That will chime with millions
    These absolute shits should be held to account. Along with the indie sage attention seeking scaremongers
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893
    Leon said:

    The Armenian genocide memoir that I’m reading right now makes that same point. The Armenian author is in Germany in 1914 when WW1 kicks off. At first everyone is elated because they are convinced Germany can easily win a swift war against France and Russia

    Then “England” joins the war and the elation turns instantly to a numb, stunned sourness, as Germans realise the war will be looooooong and they might not win

    Never seen it told that way before
    The Guns Of August has a passage on exactly that - the German public (in the cafes) realising that they have few allies.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    Lots of people on PB cannot cook and have no discernible interest in food. It really is quite a sad spectacle to hear of grown professional men relishing ready meals, instant coffee and being unable to navigate a saucepan.

    Some top meals are simple one's though to be fair. For me, when I'm really hungry not much beats cheese on toast with mature cheddar and chilli jam.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2022

    These absolute shits should be held to account. Along with the indie sage attention seeking scaremongers
    YOu think so? He did his best, and the DM is evidently trying to blame him for the wider problems of government decision making. Look at the scope of his work - excluding the wider effects. That was a government duty, to take the wider effects and decide on the result.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,175

    That will chime with millions
    Could be opening salvo in a massive war of words during the inquiry, when it finally happens. Modellers blaming DoH and ministers for giving their models too much weight.

    Personally, I think Robert Dingwall's call this week in the Telegraph that the public inquiry must answer the question as to why decades of public health and public risk policy on how to deal with a pandemic were thrown out of the window in an instance and lockdown became the tool of choice.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369
    Farooq said:

    You either know it already or you didn't go listen. It's 6 minutes of magnificence and you replied before 6 minutes were up! There's no other song like it. Nobody else would write a song like that. Say what you like about Pulp, they are madly unique.
    My personal favourite is I Spy.
    "my favourite parks are car parks
    Grass is something you smoke
    Birds are something you shag
    Take your year in Provence
    And shove it up your ass..."
    Genius.
    Special mention for Do you remember the first time, Babies, Disco 2000 and Bar Italia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893

    300% increase in price overnight if some tosser like Blumenthal cooks it in a vacuum cleaner bag at 40 degrees facing north.
    Rubbish

    It’s “facing Nor’ Nor’ East”
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369

    The Guns Of August has a passage on exactly that - the German public (in the cafes) realising that they have few allies.

    That is a great book.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    Wow. Key modeller who demanded more lockdowns admits too much weight was given to models - a regular area of strong discussion on PB (where there are many who are more numerate than most peeps) at the time.

    I am going to be charitable and say that this is a very important if belated contribution to the forthcoming public inquiry on covid.



    "Britain relied too much on 'very scary' SAGE models to decide on lockdowns, according to the man behind some of those very projections.

    Just months after SAGE predicted 6,000 deaths per day and called for a Christmas lockdown in response to Omicron, Professor John Edmunds said the models were only supposed to be 'one component' of decision-making but were leaned on too much by ministers.

    He accepted the models failed to account for the economic harm and the knock-on health effects that lockdowns caused."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10804993/SAGE-models-scary-held-weight-says-lockdown-architect-them.html

    It should be at the very core of the inquiry, along with an examination on how it was that the government was able to remove the most basic of liberties from its citizens. In our lib dem we took a lot granted and what has been revealed is an inadequacy of fundamental checks and balances in our system. A culture of safety took over from what we thought were categorical imperatives.
  • Stocky said:

    It should be at the very core of the inquiry, along with an examination on how it was that the government was able to remove the most basic of liberties from its citizens. In our lib dem we took a lot granted and what has been revealed is an inadequacy of fundamental checks and balances in our system. A culture of safety took over from what we thought were categorical imperatives.
    It should be.

    The sad reality is I expect any inquiry and it's reporting to mostly be sob stories of "deaths that could have been prevented" and why didn't we lockdown sooner etc.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,398
    Evening all :)

    I don't have any experience of foodbanks - Mrs Stodge however (and I don't know how she knows this) tells me some foodbanks actually means test those coming in and will only help those who can prove they are on benefits. I wasn't aware of that.

    In Newham, the food banks tend to be religious in nature - the owner of one stood in last week's Council election. My understanding is they will help anyone and on our way home last Saturday the queue at the food bank in East Ham High Street had probably 60-70 waiting.

    There is a big problem with food education - as with so much else relating to public health information, the decision to take part of the function from the NHS and give it to councils without any resources probably didn't help. Food education goes with health education - the expression "you are what you eat" is in my case apposite and may be for others, Yet as been said, you can't make people healthy - you can't force people to look after themselves even if, in the face of all the health information, they choose to drink, smoke or eat poor food to excess.

    It's possible to eat well, it's just easier and cheaper to eat badly.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013
    CRIPES. Good job he didn’t read the memo this “might be” the first “gay Doctor”. Would be groundbreaking if true.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10806101/Newly-elected-Tory-councillor-forced-quit-series-racist-tweets-memes.html
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    edited May 2022

    It should be.

    The sad reality is I expect any inquiry and it's reporting to mostly be sob stories of "deaths that could have been prevented" and why didn't we lockdown sooner etc.
    Jeez I hope you're wrong. This needs to focus on what we do in the future when a similar thing happens again. Otherwise we live in trepidation, not of a future virus but of what a future government will do in response to one now that it has these illiberal precedents are in its toolkit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,175

    It should be.

    The sad reality is I expect any inquiry and it's reporting to mostly be sob stories of "deaths that could have been prevented" and why didn't we lockdown sooner etc.
    I'm hoping for a very tough minded judge for the chair who will not allow that to happen.

    "along with an examination on how it was that the government was able to remove the most basic of liberties from its citizens."

    Absolutely. I think it was Big Dog himself who at one point who expressed surprise at how easy it was to turn off the most basic rights of freedom and association.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Michael Gove, wtf?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2022
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I don't have any experience of foodbanks - Mrs Stodge however (and I don't know how she knows this) tells me some foodbanks actually means test those coming in and will only help those who can prove they are on benefits. I wasn't aware of that.

    In Newham, the food banks tend to be religious in nature - the owner of one stood in last week's Council election. My understanding is they will help anyone and on our way home last Saturday the queue at the food bank in East Ham High Street had probably 60-70 waiting.

    There is a big problem with food education - as with so much else relating to public health information, the decision to take part of the function from the NHS and give it to councils without any resources probably didn't help. Food education goes with health education - the expression "you are what you eat" is in my case apposite and may be for others, Yet as been said, you can't make people healthy - you can't force people to look after themselves even if, in the face of all the health information, they choose to drink, smoke or eat poor food to excess.

    It's possible to eat well, it's just easier and cheaper to eat badly.

    SAme with the local foodbank - they need a reference from a relevant agency, which has the same effect, but is slighly more flexible. Thwere is no way anyone can rock up (contrary to Tory myth) and do the weekly shop for free.

    The very occasional exception is if sometimes they have an impossible glut like 10 crates of almost overripe bananas but then they put them outside with a notice to help yourself - not inside the shop.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    ping said:

    Eggs are key to eating on a low budget. Cheap, filling, nutritious, flexible.
    I've developed a liking for pickled eggs - much to Mrs Stocky's disgust.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,175

    I'm referring to them collectively and specifically to anyone recommending lockdown, or appearing on television, radio etc promoting lockdown. It is the most catastrophic policy inflicted in decades.
    That's what we should try and establish with a proper inquiry: whether you are right or not. Personally, I am leaning to the conclusion that it was the greatest peacetime public policy mistake in decades, but I would like to see a frank and full debate of the evidence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Ugh.

    Chelsea FC is close to unveiling a £20m-a-year sponsorship deal with a fast-growing cryptocurrency group – despite a temporary ban on the club striking lucrative new partnerships while it operates under government supervision.

    Sky News can reveal that the Blues have agreed a shirt-sleeve contract with WhaleFin, a digital asset platform owned by Singapore-based Amber Group.

    Sources said the deal, which will launch next season, could be confirmed publicly as early as Thursday morning.


    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-to-unveil-20m-a-year-shirt-deal-with-cryptocurrency-brand-whalefin-12610660
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Ugh.

    Chelsea FC is close to unveiling a £20m-a-year sponsorship deal with a fast-growing cryptocurrency group – despite a temporary ban on the club striking lucrative new partnerships while it operates under government supervision.

    Sky News can reveal that the Blues have agreed a shirt-sleeve contract with WhaleFin, a digital asset platform owned by Singapore-based Amber Group.

    Sources said the deal, which will launch next season, could be confirmed publicly as early as Thursday morning.


    https://news.sky.com/story/chelsea-to-unveil-20m-a-year-shirt-deal-with-cryptocurrency-brand-whalefin-12610660

    Are they being paid in GBP or digital wotsits?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013

    Michael Gove, wtf?

    Stuart Bulldozer Dickson WTF my Tory family would say, they thought he was impressive and communicated very well!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Have urinated against that obelisk.
    In protest? Or incontinence?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    rcs1000 said:

    Such an inquiry, though, needs to come from a place of realising people were trying to do the right thing. This shouldn't be about who is to blame, but about learning lessons about how we do things better next time.
    That is fundamental and well-said. No-one in the government wanted Covid to happen. No-one wanted tens of thousands of people to die. And they had to make decisions in days, from an (in modern times) unprecedented situation, and without the benefit of hindsight.

    However much you might hate Boris, he did not want, or gain, from the Covid crisis. If he could have clicked his fingers and made the crisis go away, he would have. Instead the government had to made decisions on very incomplete information.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    edited May 2022
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I don't have any experience of foodbanks - Mrs Stodge however (and I don't know how she knows this) tells me some foodbanks actually means test those coming in and will only help those who can prove they are on benefits. I wasn't aware of that.

    In Newham, the food banks tend to be religious in nature - the owner of one stood in last week's Council election. My understanding is they will help anyone and on our way home last Saturday the queue at the food bank in East Ham High Street had probably 60-70 waiting.

    There is a big problem with food education - as with so much else relating to public health information, the decision to take part of the function from the NHS and give it to councils without any resources probably didn't help. Food education goes with health education - the expression "you are what you eat" is in my case apposite and may be for others, Yet as been said, you can't make people healthy - you can't force people to look after themselves even if, in the face of all the health information, they choose to drink, smoke or eat poor food to excess.

    It's possible to eat well, it's just easier and cheaper to eat badly.

    We have two "official" food banks locally which do indeed require a referral from the CAB or Job Centre to confirm you're on benefits. There's also a more easygoing one run by the town council where people drop stuff off and anyone can come in and take stuff - it's been running for a year and seems to work without problems - I know one of the volunteers, asnd she says they never get anyone being silly and asking to take mountains of stuff. The main issue is that some who come are terribly embarrassed, and need to be reassured that loads of people have a spell of bad luck, nothing to be ashamed of.

    Clearly (despite my own unhealthy preference for chilled meals) it's possible to cook on a modest budget and helpful if one knows how. That said, it was (I think unintentionally) a bit awkwardly phrased by the MP, as it could be read as victim-blaming. If you don't know how to cook, you don't - just telling you to go away and learn isn't a helpful approach, especially if you're in debt and buying anything at all is intimidating. And if my local places are any guide the food banks are all about providing the basics which people do then cook themselves.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Stocky said:

    I've developed a liking for pickled eggs - much to Mrs Stocky's disgust.
    Here's a tip - next time you find yourself in a dark tavern somewhere in the USA and see a jar of pickled eggs on the bar - do NOT indulge.

    That is, NOT before ascertaining they haven't been sitting there since the Ford administration.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340

    I had some chicken, frozen sliced mushrooms, spring onions and noodles with soy today as it happens. Cheap and tasty
    Kikkoman’s soy sauce makes almost everything tolerable. Instant umami

    When I travel, I always take: a bottle of Kikkoman’s soy sauce, a bottle of Tabasco, a bottle of sriracha, grindable rock salt and grindable black pepper. These can usually salvage any meal, no matter how banal

    I was delighted to discover recently that Lord Byron did exactly the same. He took three or four bottled sauces from London wherever he went, to rescue insipid meals on his continental travels. Somewhat counter-intuitive, but true
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013

    Stuart Bulldozer Dickson WTF my Tory family would say, they thought he was impressive and communicated very well!
    Your new avatar?

    image

    Suits you sir. 🫡
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,175

    That is fundamental and well-said. No-one in the government wanted Covid to happen. No-one wanted tens of thousands of people to die. And they had to make decisions in days, from an (in modern times) unprecedented situation, and without the benefit of hindsight.

    However much you might hate Boris, he did not want, or gain, from the Covid crisis. If he could have clicked his fingers and made the crisis go away, he would have. Instead the government had to made decisions on very incomplete information.
    Agreed.

    But we need to know why existing approaches and plans were thrown out of the window.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    rcs1000 said:

    Such an inquiry, though, needs to come from a place of realising people were trying to do the right thing. This shouldn't be about who is to blame, but about learning lessons about how we do things better next time.

    I largely agree, though feel strongly that the government acted partly to protect itself from as much criticism as possible and so took the line of least resistance rather than applying science and principle, partly by injecting fear into its citizens and partly by contracting out to unelected individuals often to provide cover.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,728
    rcs1000 said:

    Such an inquiry, though, needs to come from a place of realising people were trying to do the right thing. This shouldn't be about who is to blame, but about learning lessons about how we do things better next time.

    Well mostly. I still have my doubts about Susan Michie. It doesn't seem beyond the bounds of credibility that a communist party member saw an opportunity to bring down capitalism and massively expand the reach of the state.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Carnyx said:

    YOu think so? He did his best, and the DM is evidently trying to blame him for the wider problems of government decision making. Look at the scope of his work - excluding the wider effects. That was a government duty, to take the wider effects and decide on the result.
    But how were they supposed to do that with the media screaming that "we're all going to die if you don't Follow The Science"?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340

    Lots of people on PB cannot cook and have no discernible interest in food. It really is quite a sad spectacle to hear of grown professional men relishing ready meals, instant coffee and being unable to navigate a saucepan.

    I find it a bit lamentable, TBH

    Being unable to cook is nothing to be proud of. It’s like being unable to read
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2022
    Applicant said:

    But how were they supposed to do that with the media screaming that "we're all going to die if you don't Follow The Science"?
    Ignore the media. They are the government, not the media. And rather a lot of the time, the media were screaming "but the money" and attacking and discrediting any scientist they could name.

    Edit: though, on reflection, if you have a government of journalists and PR manipulators, there is a problem.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    Stocky said:

    I largely agree, though feel strongly that the government acted partly to protect itself from as much criticism as possible and so took the line of least resistance rather than applying science and principle, partly by injecting fear into its citizens and partly by contracting out to unelected individuals often to provide cover.
    What 'science' could be applied at the beginning? Back in late March 2020, we had little idea of how the virus spread - remember all the stuff about cleaning your hands regularly with gel, which (although good advice generally), did little to prevent the spread of this particular virus?

    'virus' is a small word that covers a multitude of sins. We knew something was happening, and the science could tell us it was a virus and even the virus's genetic code. But we are not yet advanced enough to go from that to say 'this is how we deal with it.'

    There had to be a certain amount of fear for the first lockdown, as we had little idea *what* we were dealing with. I'd argue that was still the case (though less so) a year later.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    That's what we should try and establish with a proper inquiry: whether you are right or not. Personally, I am leaning to the conclusion that it was the greatest peacetime public policy mistake in decades, but I would like to see a frank and full debate of the evidence.
    My anger on the subject is, I admit, due to losing precious time with my dying mother and the impact it had on my personal mental health.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Carnyx said:

    Ignore the media. They are the government, not the media. And rather a lot of the time, the media were screaming "but the money" and attacking and discrediting any scientist they could name.

    Edit: though, on reflection, if you have a government of journalists and PR manipulators, there is a problem.
    The problem was that too big a proportion of people watched, and believed, the scaremongering bullshit of the primary TV news bulletins.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Such an inquiry, though, needs to come from a place of realising people were trying to do the right thing. This shouldn't be about who is to blame, but about learning lessons about how we do things better next time.

    Really not sure that’s true. Witness the Lab Leak debate. That was not “everyone trying to do the right thing” that was a section of the scientific elite conniving with politicians and social media to silence the possibility that this was the greatest scientific fuck up in all history - and China/America were and are both implicated

    That was not benign intentions gone wrong. It was a conspiracy of malignant lies

    And that is true even IF it turns out it came from the wet market (highly unlikely, but let’s allow it)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    Kikkoman’s soy sauce makes almost everything tolerable. Instant umami

    When I travel, I always take: a bottle of Kikkoman’s soy sauce, a bottle of Tabasco, a bottle of sriracha, grindable rock salt and grindable black pepper. These can usually salvage any meal, no matter how banal

    I was delighted to discover recently that Lord Byron did exactly the same. He took three or four bottled sauces from London wherever he went, to rescue insipid meals on his continental travels. Somewhat counter-intuitive, but true
    Decent condiments are worth missing out on something else for
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    The values survey depends on what people interpret "values" to mean.

    To some it might mean money for example - mixing the price of everything and the value of nothing.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    Really not sure that’s true. Witness the Lab Leak debate. That was not “everyone trying to do the right thing” that was a section of the scientific elite conniving with politicians and social media to silence the possibility that this was the greatest scientific fuck up in all history - and China/America were and are both implicated

    That was not benign intentions gone wrong. It was a conspiracy of malignant lies

    And that is true even IF it turns out it came from the wet market (highly unlikely, but let’s allow it)
    Spoiler - it's not from the wet market
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340

    My anger on the subject is, I admit, due to losing precious time with my dying mother and the impact it had on my personal mental health.
    Total sympathy, mate

    On a cheerier note, it’s great to have you back, posting on PB, Mister Woolie. You’ve been missed
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    What 'science' could be applied at the beginning? Back in late March 2020, we had little idea of how the virus spread - remember all the stuff about cleaning your hands regularly with gel, which (although good advice generally), did little to prevent the spread of this particular virus?

    'virus' is a small word that covers a multitude of sins. We knew something was happening, and the science could tell us it was a virus and even the virus's genetic code. But we are not yet advanced enough to go from that to say 'this is how we deal with it.'

    There had to be a certain amount of fear for the first lockdown, as we had little idea *what* we were dealing with. I'd argue that was still the case (though less so) a year later.
    The very first lockdown - at three weeks - was understandable in the circumstances. But there has been no official acknowledgement, TTBOMK, that the data suggests strongly that infections had peaked before it started and this had already started to become clear at the end of those three weeks.

    If it is indeed true, it demolishes the case for lockdown as a matter of law as opposed to government advice on how to be sensible.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340

    Spoiler - it's not from the wet market
    Lol. I hear you
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,098
    Leon said:

    Really not sure that’s true. Witness the Lab Leak debate. That was not “everyone trying to do the right thing” that was a section of the scientific elite conniving with politicians and social media to silence the possibility that this was the greatest scientific fuck up in all history - and China/America were and are both implicated

    That was not benign intentions gone wrong. It was a conspiracy of malignant lies

    And that is true even IF it turns out it came from the wet market (highly unlikely, but let’s allow it)
    This isn't about the origins of the virus, this is about understanding how we respond optimally to future health crises. What did we do right? What could we do better?

    If it becomes a case of "who is to blame?" then all you'll get is a bunch of people saying "I don't recall", and we learn nothing.

    Almost without exception, the people in the government (and yes, the most of the people on SAGE) were trying to do the right thing. They also were coming from a place of limited knowledge, no vaccines, no effective treatments, and were utterly terrified of making decisions that might result in tens or hundreds of thousands of excess deaths.

    A really good enquiry would also ask, which countries had better outcomes? And why? And we also need to remember that luck (good and bad) plays a massive role.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516
    Leon said:

    Really not sure that’s true. Witness the Lab Leak debate. That was not “everyone trying to do the right thing” that was a section of the scientific elite conniving with politicians and social media to silence the possibility that this was the greatest scientific fuck up in all history - and China/America were and are both implicated

    That was not benign intentions gone wrong. It was a conspiracy of malignant lies

    And that is true even IF it turns out it came from the wet market (highly unlikely, but let’s allow it)
    It's an enormity (in the original sense of the word) too far for most to contemplate that the US, abetted China, may have developed Covid and unleashed it on the world.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129
    edited May 2022
    Well, it seems that didn't go well for the Russians...

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1524399801617592322

    Edit: Ooops, beaten to it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139
    IanB2 said:


    It’s the remarkable thing about being in Italy. You hear a group of ordinary Italians having a most heated argument about something, and from the passion and energy you’d think the eldest daughter had run off with the best man or some similar family catastrophe was unfolding.

    Then, armed with a little basic Italian, you begin to make out enough words to realise that the debate is really about how to cook a certain recipe or whether one restaurant in town does pasta better than another.

    That said, today has been so hot that we escaped to the Slovenian mountains and have been exploring the remains of the trenches in the high mountains around Caporetto - the battle that did more than any single other thing to subsequently and eventually give birth to fascism in Europe - but a name that will draw blank looks from almost anyone you mention it to back at home.
    Anyone who has read A Farewell to Arms should be familiar with it (which admittedly may not decrease the blank looks by much). We did it for Higher English and the misery and sordidness of the retreat from Caporetto certainly stuck with me. A bathetic snippet Istr is Hemingway noting that Italian units had individuals carrying large casks of Marc (a rough brandy) in which it was rumoured that they dropped turds to aid its potency.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    By the by, John Edmunds of the LSHTM has consistently been one of the best, most transparent scientists in this whole shower of pandemic shite

    He’s been honest, lucid, articulate and happy to admit and see doubt. I’m not surprised he has stepped up here
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    Dirty Leeds are going down.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    Total sympathy, mate

    On a cheerier note, it’s great to have you back, posting on PB, Mister Woolie. You’ve been missed
    Appreciate that sentiment, thank you. Ma Woolie was a legend of Norwich and is missed every day.
    I've been about. I've lurked a bit. I left because I get ridiculously grumpy and I get that I'm not to everyone's taste but I'm hopeful of adding some insight that isn't just my hatred of Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252
    Sandpit said:

    They can’t even treat their own dead with respect. Shocking to see, and chances are most of the deaths of men will not be acknowledged to their wives and mothers waiting for news.
    They will (falsely, of course) claim that they are alive and the Ukrainians are holding them as a "human shield - it is why we had to back off Kiev."

    Pol Pot's regime was barking mad. But Putin's must take the award for the scummiest regime of a major country in recent decades. It seems nothing is beneath them.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252

    Dirty Leeds are going down.

    PLEEEEEEEEASE make it so.....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516

    Anyone who has read A Farewell to Arms should be familiar with it (which admittedly may not decrease the blank looks by much). We did it for Higher English and the misery and sordidness of the retreat from Caporetto certainly stuck with me. A bathetic snippet Istr is Hemingway noting that Italian units had individuals carrying large casks of Marc (a rough brandy) in which it was rumoured that they dropped turds to aid its potency.
    I am really hoping that's a typo for 'turps'. :lol:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129

    It's an enormity (in the original sense of the word) too far for most to contemplate that the US, abetted China, may have developed Covid and unleashed it on the world.
    No, what you say is crap. It's bullshit. It's tinfoil-hattery of the highest order. The idea that the US abetted China not only has zero evidence, but is propaganda that is borderline evil.

    Which is exactly your usual MO.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Dirty Leeds are going down.

    We've been going down since November
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,098
    Applicant said:

    The very first lockdown - at three weeks - was understandable in the circumstances. But there has been no official acknowledgement, TTBOMK, that the data suggests strongly that infections had peaked before it started and this had already started to become clear at the end of those three weeks.

    If it is indeed true, it demolishes the case for lockdown as a matter of law as opposed to government advice on how to be sensible.
    That'll be because people lock themselves down if they think it is dangerous to go outside.

    There was a fabulous bit of research by an American academic looking at OpenTable reservation patterns through the pandemic, which he/she thought would be a good proxy for peoples' willingness to socialise. And - surprise, surprise - reservations collapsed as case numbers rose, and vice-versa.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516

    No, what you say is crap. It's bullshit. It's tinfoil-hattery of the highest order. The idea that the US abetted China not only has zero evidence, but is propaganda that is borderline evil.

    Which is exactly your usual MO.
    It was meant to say abetted by China. Not abetted China.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    The British security commitments to Sweden and Finland mean a huge amount. There has been a lot of uncertainty for the last 8 years as to whether there would be any mutual aid in the event of a Russian attack on Finland, and speculation about this has been the cause of a lot of public debate in Finland, IE it was very often on the front cover of newspapers when you looked at them in the supermarket. Johnson will now be feted as a hero in Finland, whereas for many years he was a villain because of Brexit. Obviously neither characterisations are particularly correct, but the good part of the story is that we all seem to have moved on to a positive place after Brexit, at least from this angle.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340
    rcs1000 said:

    This isn't about the origins of the virus, this is about understanding how we respond optimally to future health crises. What did we do right? What could we do better?

    If it becomes a case of "who is to blame?" then all you'll get is a bunch of people saying "I don't recall", and we learn nothing.

    Almost without exception, the people in the government (and yes, the most of the people on SAGE) were trying to do the right thing. They also were coming from a place of limited knowledge, no vaccines, no effective treatments, and were utterly terrified of making decisions that might result in tens or hundreds of thousands of excess deaths.

    A really good enquiry would also ask, which countries had better outcomes? And why? And we also need to remember that luck (good and bad) plays a massive role.
    But you can’t divorce them. Our initial response was crippled from the start by ignorance of the virus, which was deliberately made worse by China’s lying (aided by American guilt) because they were shit-scared the virus escaped from their own labs, and was actually engineered to be more virulent than anything natural

    And, again, that is true whether it came from the lab or not (hint: it came from the lab)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,139

    I am really hoping that's a typo for 'turps'. :lol:
    I regret to say it is not.
    I guess it’s not that far from cider makers of yore dropping a dead rat in their fermenting nectar.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,516

    I regret to say it is not.
    I guess it’s not that far from cider makers of yore dropping a dead rat in their fermenting nectar.
    Grief.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    But you can’t divorce them. Our initial response was crippled from the start by ignorance of the virus, which was deliberately made worse by China’s lying (aided by American guilt) because they were shit-scared the virus escaped from their own labs, and was actually engineered to be more virulent than anything natural

    And, again, that is true whether it came from the lab or not (hint: it came from the lab)
    When it comes to bat soup versus the lab up the road that studies coronaviruses I'm amazed how many people plumped for the bat soup origin conspiracy for this coronavirus
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,064
    Cookie said:

    Well mostly. I still have my doubts about Susan Michie. It doesn't seem beyond the bounds of credibility that a communist party member saw an opportunity to bring down capitalism and massively expand the reach of the state.
    Strange time to do it, when the Revolutionary Communist Party are welcomed at the heart of the state.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Dirty Leeds are going down.

    We will be back in 15 years
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,340

    When it cones to bat soup versus the lab up the road that studies coronaviruses I'm amazed how many people plumped for the bat soup origin conspiracy for this coronavirus
    It is incredible, I don’t quite understand it

    The only explanation that makes sense is that Trump espoused the lab leak early on so many left-leaning people - or just people - have developed a tremendous allergy to the notion, plus they tend to be middlebrow thinkers who bow before Science (which was totally behind IT CAME FROM THE MARKET for obvious reasons, until about a year ago)

    95% of the evidence points to the lab. Plus, Ockham’s Razor, FFS
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    rcs1000 said:

    That'll be because people lock themselves down if they think it is dangerous to go outside.

    There was a fabulous bit of research by an American academic looking at OpenTable reservation patterns through the pandemic, which he/she thought would be a good proxy for peoples' willingness to socialise. And - surprise, surprise - reservations collapsed as case numbers rose, and vice-versa.
    Exactly - the case for lockdown was that you can't trust the stupid plebs to do that enough, and that seems to have been false.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353

    Nah. I am right up there with criticism of the Government on most things but on this they had absolutely no choice. People seem to be forgetting that we have lost over 175,000 people in Britain to this virus. If the Government had ignored the advice of the scientists and we had lost not one more person than we have, I would suggest we would still be in a position right now where ministers were not only out of office but were now on trial for manslaughter. Practically every single person in this country - including almost everyone on here - would have been claiming that many, if not most, of those deaths would have been avoided if only the ministers had followed the scientific advice.

    Nor would the economy have been in any better state. With hundreds of people dying of the disease every day people would have imposed their own lockdowns and that includes many essential workers who carried on because they were asked to by the Government.

    The scientists do bear some responsibility for this. They were dealing with people untutored in science, epidemiology and statistics and they chose to present them time and time again with the worst case scenarios. Again, what minister is going to ignore those?

    But in the end no one can be too heavily criticised for the lockdown policies. There is way too much 20:20 hindsight being used from the safety of triple jabbing.

    There are lots of valid criticisms of other areas of covid policy but not this one.
    I agree with the broad thrust of that. There was some minor commentary about decisions being 'made' by scientists, which was overblown, but by and large people would have agreed if the government had gone even stronger and harder. It is technically possible but not very feasible to think the government, or any government here, would have resisted that. It was a bit of a surprise that the government opened up and loosened up in the ways it eventually did, when the public was still preferring not to.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    Dirty Leeds are going down.

    10/1 bet from me drops in if they do.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,175
    This fin de siecle government is sounding more and more like Major's final months.

    Today's 'cones hotline' nonsense seems to be neighbours voting on extensions in their street.

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    It was meant to say abetted by China. Not abetted China.
    Well, he was wrong to say your previous comment was tinfoil-hattery of the highest order, as you just found a higher order.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    rcs1000 said:

    That'll be because people lock themselves down if they think it is dangerous to go outside.

    There was a fabulous bit of research by an American academic looking at OpenTable reservation patterns through the pandemic, which he/she thought would be a good proxy for peoples' willingness to socialise. And - surprise, surprise - reservations collapsed as case numbers rose, and vice-versa.
    Which was a massive problem for the affected industries, who relied on being ordered shut in order to gain from the generous government support made available.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,098
    Leon said:

    But you can’t divorce them. Our initial response was crippled from the start by ignorance of the virus, which was deliberately made worse by China’s lying (aided by American guilt) because they were shit-scared the virus escaped from their own labs, and was actually engineered to be more virulent than anything natural

    And, again, that is true whether it came from the lab or not (hint: it came from the lab)
    Are you a retard?

    There are probably multiple enquiries that are needed, but they should absolutely not be bundled together.

    Because the goal is to make sure that we understand how to deal with future crises better. What did we do? Was is the optimal path? How could we have performed better with the information we had at the time?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    It is incredible, I don’t quite understand it

    The only explanation that makes sense is that Trump espoused the lab leak early on so many left-leaning people - or just people - have developed a tremendous allergy to the notion, plus they tend to be middlebrow thinkers who bow before Science (which was totally behind IT CAME FROM THE MARKET for obvious reasons, until about a year ago)

    95% of the evidence points to the lab. Plus, Ockham’s Razor, FFS
    Exactly.
    Then there was the shitting themselves that they might be racist if they accused the lab brigade who plumped for the much better option of blame Chinese peasants dirty eating habits.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,098
    Sandpit said:

    Which was a massive problem for the affected industries, who relied on being ordered shut in order to gain from the generous government support made available.
    Which is something we should learn for future crises :smile:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013
    Government admits today it may send Ukrainian refugees to Rwanda? Tell me I’m wrong. 😟
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    NEW THERAD
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Government admits today it may send Ukrainian refugees to Rwanda? Tell me I’m wrong. 😟

    You’re wrong. The Ukranian refugees are all being sponsored by UK citizens and residents, and issued visas before they arrive. Those going to Rwanda are the irregular and undocumented arrivals, most of whom turn up on small boats across the Channel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,098
    Leon said:

    It is incredible, I don’t quite understand it

    The only explanation that makes sense is that Trump espoused the lab leak early on so many left-leaning people - or just people - have developed a tremendous allergy to the notion, plus they tend to be middlebrow thinkers who bow before Science (which was totally behind IT CAME FROM THE MARKET for obvious reasons, until about a year ago)

    95% of the evidence points to the lab. Plus, Ockham’s Razor, FFS
    The evidence hasn't changed one jot in two years: the same city where bat viruses are researched is the same city where the virus emerged. It is massive circumstantial evidence, that makes it by far the most likely source of the virus. But it doesn't preclude the small chance that it is entirely zoonotic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,175
    late to this as it was this morning's Times but, wow, this is blistering double barrel stuff from Finkelstein:


    "It is perfectly obvious that the government is confused about what it stands for. This is because it is confused about who it stands for.

    The prime minister and the chancellor believe in different fiscal policies, the government believes in low taxes but is raising taxes, the party believes in free trade but is presiding over vast increases in trade barriers for Britain. It is a free-market party that has fallen out with the leadership of big business. It is a Conservative Party but isn’t sure how seriously it takes the rule of law. Or treaties. Or standards in public life."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d62e7f8-d078-11ec-84ba-2054de44b21e?shareToken=cfb37b7a29183f3fe783ec72bb348f78
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,129

    It was meant to say abetted by China. Not abetted China.
    Do you think that 'alteration' makes what you said any better?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,203
    kle4 said:

    I agree with the broad thrust of that. There was some minor commentary about decisions being 'made' by scientists, which was overblown, but by and large people would have agreed if the government had gone even stronger and harder. It is technically possible but not very feasible to think the government, or any government here, would have resisted that. It was a bit of a surprise that the government opened up and loosened up in the ways it eventually did, when the public was still preferring not to.
    It's very easy to say "never again", but in the hideous situation where a similarly infectious and dangerous disease comes along, we would have to do much the same as we did.

    If you don't believe that, imagine what would have happened had the UK kept going with plan A. The extra deaths and chaos in Summer 2020. Then the variants come and override that natural immunity. And then the vaccines come along in short order afterwards.

    I really hope that 2020-2 is the worst thing to happen in the lives of me and my children. But if circumstances demand it- yes, we'd have to do it again. And saying "we don't want to" is not something the virus would hear.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,893
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I don't have any experience of foodbanks - Mrs Stodge however (and I don't know how she knows this) tells me some foodbanks actually means test those coming in and will only help those who can prove they are on benefits. I wasn't aware of that.

    In Newham, the food banks tend to be religious in nature - the owner of one stood in last week's Council election. My understanding is they will help anyone and on our way home last Saturday the queue at the food bank in East Ham High Street had probably 60-70 waiting.

    There is a big problem with food education - as with so much else relating to public health information, the decision to take part of the function from the NHS and give it to councils without any resources probably didn't help. Food education goes with health education - the expression "you are what you eat" is in my case apposite and may be for others, Yet as been said, you can't make people healthy - you can't force people to look after themselves even if, in the face of all the health information, they choose to drink, smoke or eat poor food to excess.

    It's possible to eat well, it's just easier and cheaper to eat badly.

    Easier - not necessarily cheaper.

    Look at the very poorest immigrant areas - lots of home cooking going on there. Transferred skills and tradition from the home country.

    Orwell was making this point, back in the day - comfort food, basically.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353

    late to this as it was this morning's Times but, wow, this is blistering double barrel stuff from Finkelstein:


    "It is perfectly obvious that the government is confused about what it stands for. This is because it is confused about who it stands for.

    The prime minister and the chancellor believe in different fiscal policies, the government believes in low taxes but is raising taxes, the party believes in free trade but is presiding over vast increases in trade barriers for Britain. It is a free-market party that has fallen out with the leadership of big business. It is a Conservative Party but isn’t sure how seriously it takes the rule of law. Or treaties. Or standards in public life."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d62e7f8-d078-11ec-84ba-2054de44b21e?shareToken=cfb37b7a29183f3fe783ec72bb348f78

    I think the government is very sure how seriously it takes the rule of law and standards in public life.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,473

    Agreed.

    But we need to know why existing approaches and plans were thrown out of the window.

    Images from Italy caused blind panic.
This discussion has been closed.