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Why Ukraine was particularly vulnerable to Putin’s ambitions – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Labour doing a poor job in making this non story go away.

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1521098489136046082?s=21&t=7bAiMWcDTOiy0LXUluC5KA

    That beer must have been exceptionally bitter.
    We make some fine brews up here in the North East.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Sweden set to join NATO alongside Finland: ASAP

    https://twitter.com/johngranlund/status/1521141684788252672?s=21&t=hPkdwMy_GEdB4Otulx4Mqg

    The map of Eurasia is changing before us…
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2

    Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest

    I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..

    But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law

    Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1521078694772719622

    Interesting indeed.

    As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?

    And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-says-scots-will-still-vote-in-favour-of-independence-despite-polling-dip-3677014
    IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
    If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
    My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
    You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
    They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
    Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
    You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.

    *polite euphemism
    FTFY :smile:

    As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
    Speak for yourself. Reality is tedious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Leon said:

    Conflict News
    @Conflicts
    ·
    5h
    BREAKING: Finnish media reporting that Finland will officially apply to join NATO on May 12

    https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1521053792220987393


    ===

    They should do it on 9th May.

    Putin has successfully extended NATO all along his northern border. Brilliant, not

    Sweden will presumably follow, so NATO reaches far into the European Arctic

    This war is a catastrophe for Russia
    He's thrown up so many reasons for it no doubt he can find something to claim as a win, presumably if he can get a corridor to Crimea, which is still within reach for instance.

    But from his lofty talk of denazifying Ukraine, which he was clear included its leadership, and the whinge (that too many still give credence to) about not liking NATO expansion 20 years ago as a justification, the larger aims are pretty clearly unattainable or have provoked a severe response at this point.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,129
    I’ve seen it mentioned here before and thought I would get used to it, but I’m getting increasingly pissed off by the monophthongal way everybody on BBC radio pronounces Kyiv.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    I’ve seen it mentioned here before and thought I would get used to it, but I’m getting increasingly pissed off by the monophthongal way everybody on BBC radio pronounces Kyiv.

    Could be word of the day. Well done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited May 2022

    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    Trump & Chomsky up a tree..


    The giveaway in that statement is 'prolong'. If someone's only concern is to end things as quickly as possible, and not the form that ending might take, then they are just saying Ukraine must surrender, and trying to hide it.

    Not well either, given Putin and cronies have literally made the same 'Terrible to prolong this' argument.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    A Russian munitions factory in Perm is mysteriously on fire.

    https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/status/1521113814158168069

    Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
    I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
    Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷‍♂️

    “#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”

    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1520859285072265216?s=21&t=muVuxgOFWjjknU3o0IsoIg

    I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
    I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage

    If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
    i doubt it is very common, very rare in uk for sure
    Diesel is very stable stuff, in the Bale mountains in Ethiopia we used to cook breakfast directly under the diesel tank to warm it up (African diesel doesn't contain the anti freeze it gets in Europe). This approach is deprecated with gasoline.

    I imagine the darkweb contains instructions for DIY explosives; fertiliser, and casio watches for timers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    I’ve seen it mentioned here before and thought I would get used to it, but I’m getting increasingly pissed off by the monophthongal way everybody on BBC radio pronounces Kyiv.

    Snooker commentators and Chinese players springs to mind.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
    In answer to your last question: no

    There are fires and “accidents” right across Russia, from the Ukrainian border to Moscow to Siberia

    Local Ukrainian workers?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Ohio Primary May 3, 2022 - voting schedule


    May 2: Mailed absentee ballots must be postmarked by this date

    May 3: Primary Election: Polls are open from 6:30 a.m. - 7:30 p.m.

    May 3: Absentee Ballots May Be Returned by Mail or Personally Delivered to Your County Board of Elections. If Not Returned by Mail, Absentee Ballots Must Be Received by Your Board of Elections by 7:30 p.m.

    May 13: Last day for boards of elections to receive non-military and overseas absentee ballots that have been postmarked on or before May 2.

    May 23: Last day for boards of elections to receive military and overseas absentee ballots that have been mailed by 7:30 p.m. EDT on May 3.

    EARLY IN-PERSON VOTING HOURS FOR MAY
    May 1: 1:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.

    May 2: 8:00 a.m. - 2:00 p.m.

    https://www.ohiosos.gov/elections/voters/current-voting-schedule/2022-schedule/

    SSI - note that
    > early voting today until 2pm (7pm UK)
    > polls open tomorrow at 6.30 am (11.30am UK) and close at 7.30pm (12.30am Wed UK)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929
    dixiedean said:

    I’ve seen it mentioned here before and thought I would get used to it, but I’m getting increasingly pissed off by the monophthongal way everybody on BBC radio pronounces Kyiv.

    Snooker commentators and Chinese players springs to mind.
    Snooker update: Trump's fightback continues and Betfair crashing has not helped.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,129
    DavidL said:

    I’ve seen it mentioned here before and thought I would get used to it, but I’m getting increasingly pissed off by the monophthongal way everybody on BBC radio pronounces Kyiv.

    Could be word of the day. Well done.
    Monophthongal? It’s a common word down our way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    A Russian munitions factory in Perm is mysteriously on fire.

    https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/status/1521113814158168069

    Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
    I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
    Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷‍♂️

    “#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”

    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1520859285072265216?s=21&t=muVuxgOFWjjknU3o0IsoIg

    I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
    I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage

    If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
    i doubt it is very common, very rare in uk for sure
    Diesel is very stable stuff, in the Bale mountains in Ethiopia we used to cook breakfast directly under the diesel tank to warm it up (African diesel doesn't contain the anti freeze it gets in Europe). This approach is deprecated with gasoline.

    I imagine the darkweb contains instructions for DIY explosives; fertiliser, and casio watches for timers.
    2-3 years ago now my car caught fire on the way to Aberdeen. I started discussing this with emergency services in the vehicle but decided that doing so from a distance of about 30 metres seemed a better idea. When the fire brigade arrived they were completely relaxed about it as soon as they found out it was a diesel. The car burnt through completely without anything happening to the tank.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    dixiedean said:

    I’ve seen it mentioned here before and thought I would get used to it, but I’m getting increasingly pissed off by the monophthongal way everybody on BBC radio pronounces Kyiv.

    Snooker commentators and Chinese players springs to mind.
    Depends on your age. I thought more Pamela Stephenson and Mugabe.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    edited May 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2

    Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest

    I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..

    But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law

    Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1521078694772719622

    Interesting indeed.

    As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?

    And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-says-scots-will-still-vote-in-favour-of-independence-despite-polling-dip-3677014
    IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
    If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
    My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
    You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
    They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
    Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
    You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.

    *polite euphemism
    FTFY :smile:

    As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
    No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
    You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
    The Scottish system is better than the Welsh.
    In Wales, the proportion of FPTP seats to list seats is 2:1. In Scotland it is 9:7.
    Ah, thank you.

    Not just a matter of simple proportion, however; unless there is a further difference that escapes me, we need also to consider the inverse gearing of list seats to constituency seats, which is therefore much stronger in Scotland as a result. (If a party does well in the FPTP seats in a region, votes for it in the region as a whole for the region list seats are massively devalued.)

    *thinks* was there a salient difference, in, say, Welsh politics that might explain Mr Blair's administration's differing policies ...?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    I’ve seen it mentioned here before and thought I would get used to it, but I’m getting increasingly pissed off by the monophthongal way everybody on BBC radio pronounces Kyiv.

    Snooker commentators and Chinese players springs to mind.
    Snooker update: Trump's fightback continues and Betfair crashing has not helped.
    Imagine that! Overturning a seven frame deficit against the rocket and a 17 month old election too.
    Some week for the Trump clan.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    DavidL said:

    I’ve seen it mentioned here before and thought I would get used to it, but I’m getting increasingly pissed off by the monophthongal way everybody on BBC radio pronounces Kyiv.

    Could be word of the day. Well done.
    Monophthongal? It’s a common word down our way.
    I guess that's just the way you creole down there.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
    In answer to your last question: no

    There are fires and “accidents” right across Russia, from the Ukrainian border to Moscow to Siberia

    Local Ukrainian workers?
    Perhaps. However, seems like too many high-value targets going boom! in widely scattered sections of Step-Mother Russia to be either spontaneous combustion OR grassroots sabotage.

    My guess is that Ukrainian special forces would rather do that brag - unlike Putin's stormtroopers?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    edited May 2022
    eg

    “Russian Far East: Fire at GRES-2 Power plant in Sakhalin this morning russia.liveuamap.com/en/2022/30-apr…”

    https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1520285786880491522?s=21&t=e832CvqVAAqhy30-GIHdSA

    It’s a long drive from Kursk to Sakhalin
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting piece from Bloomberg on so called woke progressiveism in the boardroom in the US.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-02/disney-s-florida-fight-shows-why-corporate-progressivism-can-t-win

    As Michael Jordan once said, Republicans buy sneakers too.
    Probably more of them as they have all the money.
    Bet you donuts to dollars (you wagering latter) that in today's America, self-IDed Democrats have got as much if not more moolah collectively than Republicans.

    Given that affluent urbanites & suburban voters have been swinging away from GOP and toward Dems during current millennium, a trend exacerbated by 45.
    That's a saying which is about to invert: dollars and donuts are about par atm.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Leon said:

    Sweden set to join NATO alongside Finland: ASAP

    https://twitter.com/johngranlund/status/1521141684788252672?s=21&t=hPkdwMy_GEdB4Otulx4Mqg

    The map of Eurasia is changing before us…

    The big change though for Ukraine would be the Belarus leadership getting the Ceaușescu treatment - and the place pivoting towards the EU (and a week later, NATO). Russia not having that long border to crash into Ukraine from would make Ukraine much easier to defend.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
    In answer to your last question: no

    There are fires and “accidents” right across Russia, from the Ukrainian border to Moscow to Siberia

    Local Ukrainian workers?
    Perhaps. However, seems like too many high-value targets going boom! in widely scattered sections of Step-Mother Russia to be either spontaneous combustion OR grassroots sabotage.

    My guess is that Ukrainian special forces would rather do that brag - unlike Putin's stormtroopers?
    I’m still convinced it’s local Ukrainians in Russia. Kyiv needs every fighting Ukrainian at home to defend the motherland

    Meanwhile there are two million Ukrainians “conveniently” located across Russia. And many of them will be murderously angry

    I can imagine some are being supplied with modest explosives, however. It doesn’t take an atom bomb to knock out a railway bridge in Kursk

    “This railway bridge was destroyed in the Kursk region.

    It was actively used by Russia to transports military equipment to Ukraine.

    Local authorities have confirmed it happened due to sabotage.

    3+ million Ukrainians live in Russia.

    Endless opportunities with infrastructure.”

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520929508630667264?s=21&t=e832CvqVAAqhy30-GIHdSA
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2

    Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest

    I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..

    But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law

    Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1521078694772719622

    Interesting indeed.

    As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?

    And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-says-scots-will-still-vote-in-favour-of-independence-despite-polling-dip-3677014
    IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
    If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
    My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
    You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
    They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
    Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
    You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.

    *polite euphemism
    FTFY :smile:

    As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
    No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
    You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
    The Scottish system is better than the Welsh.
    In Wales, the proportion of FPTP seats to list seats is 2:1. In Scotland it is 9:7.
    Ah, thank you.

    Not just a matter of simple proportion, however; unless there is a further difference that escapes me, we need also to consider the inverse gearing of list seats to constituency seats, which is therefore much stronger in Scotland as a result. (If a party does well in the FPTP seats in a region, votes for it in the region as a whole for the region list seats are massively devalued.)

    *thinks* was there a salient difference, in, say, Welsh politics that might explain Mr Blair's administration's differing policies ...?
    Was there? In the 1990s?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
    My guess is that there might be a whole mix of causes, most of which have been mentioned here:

    *) Pure random bad luck. These incidents happen.
    *) Increased demand due to the war. Russia needs new stuff fast; this causes safety procedures to be loosened.
    *) Experts (people who know how things work) being moved to other tasks due to the war.
    *) Fifth columnists.
    *) Direct Ukrainian attacks.
    *) More movement of materials due to the war.
    *) Poor quality materials and supplies due to the sanctions and war use.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Leon, are you waiting for your flight at Moisant (old-school) that is Louis Armstrong International?

    Be sure to pick up some genuine pralines before departure!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    ·
    53m
    ❗️The #Latvian Foreign Ministry called on its citizens to leave the territory of #Transnistria and refuse to travel there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Lol. There’s actually a Twitter account, complete with maps, to help the “saboteurs”

    It’s called “Russian Bridges Go BOOM!”

    https://twitter.com/bruckenruski/status/1520471760159842310?s=21&t=sFVGKu7J_hYMF7gEAJpvTA
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
    In answer to your last question: no

    There are fires and “accidents” right across Russia, from the Ukrainian border to Moscow to Siberia

    Local Ukrainian workers?
    Perhaps. However, seems like too many high-value targets going boom! in widely scattered sections of Step-Mother Russia to be either spontaneous combustion OR grassroots sabotage.

    My guess is that Ukrainian special forces would rather do that brag - unlike Putin's stormtroopers?
    I’m still convinced it’s local Ukrainians in Russia. Kyiv needs every fighting Ukrainian at home to defend the motherland

    Meanwhile there are two million Ukrainians “conveniently” located across Russia. And many of them will be murderously angry

    I can imagine some are being supplied with modest explosives, however. It doesn’t take an atom bomb to knock out a railway bridge in Kursk

    “This railway bridge was destroyed in the Kursk region.

    It was actively used by Russia to transports military equipment to Ukraine.

    Local authorities have confirmed it happened due to sabotage.

    3+ million Ukrainians live in Russia.

    Endless opportunities with infrastructure.”

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520929508630667264?s=21&t=e832CvqVAAqhy30-GIHdSA
    It might not take an atom bomb to destroy a railway bridge but it might take a few conventional bombs. I still don't buy spontaneous uprisings from Olga's brothers because there are no (widely reported) attacks on soft Russian targets. It might be Ukrainian special forces but how about fifth columnists implanted and equipped before hostilities began?

    There have also been reported cyberattacks on infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sir Keir
    Had a beer
    Which opened
    A chink
    In the armour
    Of Starmer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    One of the many reasons I am keen to see Putin fall (and ideally to end up with a bullet in the back of the head) is so that Trump sees* that the life of an autocrat is far from all plane sailing.

    * Yeah, I know it'll make no difference

    I’ve met a few Trump voters on this trip. They’re not all thick ugly racists

    Some are smart and funny and admit Trump is a bit dangerous and crazy, they just believe the Woke Dems are even crazier and more dangerous. They are particularly agitated by soaring crime
    Despite their Second Amendment arsenals? Despite law enforcement being a County, City or State responsibility, with a few Federal exceptions? And despite the Republicans largely running these in the Red States that you have toured?

    +++++

    I’m not saying their voting intentions are justified. I’m just telling you I’ve met these people, and this is what they say



    @Foxy also misses that Minneapolis and Portland (both Democratic cities) have had a lot of looting and violence. Now, I don't believe that Antifa exists (as as organised movement), but I certainly can believe that rural Americans think that violence will come to their towns and villages if the Democrats are elected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Top trolling...


    Rikard Jozwiak
    @RikardJozwiak
    the EU's 6th package against #Russia & #Belarus should be presented to EU ambassadors by Wed with a view to have it adopted by 9 May. #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/RikardJozwiak/status/1521091582111408129
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704


    NEXTA
    @nexta_tv
    ·
    53m
    ❗️The #Latvian Foreign Ministry called on its citizens to leave the territory of #Transnistria and refuse to travel there.

    Shits going to go down.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,129
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sir Keir
    Had a beer
    Which opened
    A chink
    In the armour
    Of Starmer.

    Wherever Barry Gardiner got his money from, we don’t call them Ch…

    Oh sorry!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
    In answer to your last question: no

    There are fires and “accidents” right across Russia, from the Ukrainian border to Moscow to Siberia

    Local Ukrainian workers?
    Perhaps. However, seems like too many high-value targets going boom! in widely scattered sections of Step-Mother Russia to be either spontaneous combustion OR grassroots sabotage.

    My guess is that Ukrainian special forces would rather do that brag - unlike Putin's stormtroopers?
    I’m still convinced it’s local Ukrainians in Russia. Kyiv needs every fighting Ukrainian at home to defend the motherland

    Meanwhile there are two million Ukrainians “conveniently” located across Russia. And many of them will be murderously angry

    I can imagine some are being supplied with modest explosives, however. It doesn’t take an atom bomb to knock out a railway bridge in Kursk

    “This railway bridge was destroyed in the Kursk region.

    It was actively used by Russia to transports military equipment to Ukraine.

    Local authorities have confirmed it happened due to sabotage.

    3+ million Ukrainians live in Russia.

    Endless opportunities with infrastructure.”

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520929508630667264?s=21&t=e832CvqVAAqhy30-GIHdSA
    It might not take an atom bomb to destroy a railway bridge but it might take a few conventional bombs. I still don't buy spontaneous uprisings from Olga's brothers because there are no (widely reported) attacks on soft Russian targets. It might be Ukrainian special forces but how about fifth columnists implanted and equipped before hostilities began?

    There have also been reported cyberattacks on infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia.
    Surely Occam’s razor says this is local Ukrainians, at least in part. They’re too sensible to go driving into Russian crowds. They don’t want to kill innocent civilians

    They are attacking military infrastructure, as they should. As I would and as you would, if we were Olga’s brother
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sir Keir
    Had a beer
    Which opened
    A chink
    In the armour
    Of Starmer.

    Wherever Barry Gardiner got his money from, we don’t call them Ch…

    Oh sorry!
    Yes. A chink In the armour Of Starmer is by no means an updated version of "a wolf in sheep's clothing."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    edited May 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    One of the many reasons I am keen to see Putin fall (and ideally to end up with a bullet in the back of the head) is so that Trump sees* that the life of an autocrat is far from all plane sailing.

    * Yeah, I know it'll make no difference

    I’ve met a few Trump voters on this trip. They’re not all thick ugly racists

    Some are smart and funny and admit Trump is a bit dangerous and crazy, they just believe the Woke Dems are even crazier and more dangerous. They are particularly agitated by soaring crime
    Despite their Second Amendment arsenals? Despite law enforcement being a County, City or State responsibility, with a few Federal exceptions? And despite the Republicans largely running these in the Red States that you have toured?

    +++++

    I’m not saying their voting intentions are justified. I’m just telling you I’ve met these people, and this is what they say

    @Foxy also misses that Minneapolis and Portland (both Democratic cities) have had a lot of looting and violence. Now, I don't believe that Antifa exists (as as organised movement), but I certainly can believe that rural Americans think that violence will come to their towns and villages if the Democrats are elected.

    +++++

    NOLA is a Dem city. And it’s experiencing a hideous surge in crime. And it’s in NOLA I’ve been hearing some of these pro-Trump voices
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Lol. There’s actually a Twitter account, complete with maps, to help the “saboteurs”

    It’s called “Russian Bridges Go BOOM!”

    https://twitter.com/bruckenruski/status/1520471760159842310?s=21&t=sFVGKu7J_hYMF7gEAJpvTA

    LOL, but Google My Maps

    Unavailable

    This map is no longer available due to a violation of our Terms of Service and/or policies.

    Spoilsports.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2

    Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest

    I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..

    But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law

    Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1521078694772719622

    Interesting indeed.

    As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?

    And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-says-scots-will-still-vote-in-favour-of-independence-despite-polling-dip-3677014
    IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
    If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
    My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
    You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
    They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
    Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
    You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.

    *polite euphemism
    FTFY :smile:

    As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
    Speak for yourself. Reality is tedious.
    Ignore reality, there's nothing you can do about it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
    In answer to your last question: no

    There are fires and “accidents” right across Russia, from the Ukrainian border to Moscow to Siberia

    Local Ukrainian workers?
    Perhaps. However, seems like too many high-value targets going boom! in widely scattered sections of Step-Mother Russia to be either spontaneous combustion OR grassroots sabotage.

    My guess is that Ukrainian special forces would rather do that brag - unlike Putin's stormtroopers?
    I’m still convinced it’s local Ukrainians in Russia. Kyiv needs every fighting Ukrainian at home to defend the motherland

    Meanwhile there are two million Ukrainians “conveniently” located across Russia. And many of them will be murderously angry

    I can imagine some are being supplied with modest explosives, however. It doesn’t take an atom bomb to knock out a railway bridge in Kursk

    “This railway bridge was destroyed in the Kursk region.

    It was actively used by Russia to transports military equipment to Ukraine.

    Local authorities have confirmed it happened due to sabotage.

    3+ million Ukrainians live in Russia.

    Endless opportunities with infrastructure.”

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520929508630667264?s=21&t=e832CvqVAAqhy30-GIHdSA
    It might not take an atom bomb to destroy a railway bridge but it might take a few conventional bombs. I still don't buy spontaneous uprisings from Olga's brothers because there are no (widely reported) attacks on soft Russian targets. It might be Ukrainian special forces but how about fifth columnists implanted and equipped before hostilities began?

    There have also been reported cyberattacks on infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia.
    The allied air forces often had great difficulty destroying bridges in the Second World War. Hundreds of tonnes of bombs might be dropped on a target and the bridge remains standing. Because of inaccurate aiming, some bridges even required several Grand Slam bombs. Bringing a bridge down with modern precision bombing can also be difficult.

    But give someone who knows what they are doing access to the bridge and a few tens of kgs of explosives, and they can wreak havoc.

    Even then, there can be difficulties. The Germans failed to fully destroy the Ludendorff Bridge in 1945, giving the Allies a very useful bridge over the Rhine - at least for a few days,
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    And indeed it turns out there are a LOT of Ukrainians in Russia. Nearly two million. One of the largest “minorities” in the country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

    That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans

    I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
    I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now

    Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact

    One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead

    You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.

    Motive means opportunity.

    We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
    Are explosives easy to come by in Russia? Look at terrorism here. Hardly any bombs, which are hard, and lots of knives, and vans driven into crowds. We don't see that in Russia. Olga's angry brother is not driving his car straight into Russian police vehicles. Could these fires result from cyberwarfare, with machines run too fast so they overheat? Are these fires close enough together to be the work of a single Ukrainian unit driving between Russian factories?
    In answer to your last question: no

    There are fires and “accidents” right across Russia, from the Ukrainian border to Moscow to Siberia

    Local Ukrainian workers?
    Perhaps. However, seems like too many high-value targets going boom! in widely scattered sections of Step-Mother Russia to be either spontaneous combustion OR grassroots sabotage.

    My guess is that Ukrainian special forces would rather do that brag - unlike Putin's stormtroopers?
    I’m still convinced it’s local Ukrainians in Russia. Kyiv needs every fighting Ukrainian at home to defend the motherland

    Meanwhile there are two million Ukrainians “conveniently” located across Russia. And many of them will be murderously angry

    I can imagine some are being supplied with modest explosives, however. It doesn’t take an atom bomb to knock out a railway bridge in Kursk

    “This railway bridge was destroyed in the Kursk region.

    It was actively used by Russia to transports military equipment to Ukraine.

    Local authorities have confirmed it happened due to sabotage.

    3+ million Ukrainians live in Russia.

    Endless opportunities with infrastructure.”

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1520929508630667264?s=21&t=e832CvqVAAqhy30-GIHdSA
    It might not take an atom bomb to destroy a railway bridge but it might take a few conventional bombs. I still don't buy spontaneous uprisings from Olga's brothers because there are no (widely reported) attacks on soft Russian targets. It might be Ukrainian special forces but how about fifth columnists implanted and equipped before hostilities began?

    There have also been reported cyberattacks on infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia.
    Surely Occam’s razor says this is local Ukrainians, at least in part. They’re too sensible to go driving into Russian crowds. They don’t want to kill innocent civilians

    They are attacking military infrastructure, as they should. As I would and as you would, if we were Olga’s brother
    Ukr special forces probably train and plan for deployment in Russia, and are prolly very effective. Unlike Our Brave Boys in the M East they aren't immediately susceptible to the Hey white boy, what you doing uptown card being played which basically means either you kill everyone who sees you, or your mission lasts 20 minutes. See Bravo 2 zero.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Leon said:

    Lol. There’s actually a Twitter account, complete with maps, to help the “saboteurs”

    It’s called “Russian Bridges Go BOOM!”

    https://twitter.com/bruckenruski/status/1520471760159842310?s=21&t=sFVGKu7J_hYMF7gEAJpvTA

    That’s funny!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2

    Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest

    I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..

    But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law

    Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session


    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1521078694772719622

    Interesting indeed.

    As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?

    And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-says-scots-will-still-vote-in-favour-of-independence-despite-polling-dip-3677014
    IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
    If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
    My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
    You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
    They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
    Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
    You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.

    *polite euphemism
    FTFY :smile:

    As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
    No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
    You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
    The Scottish system is better than the Welsh.
    In Wales, the proportion of FPTP seats to list seats is 2:1. In Scotland it is 9:7.
    Ah, thank you.

    Not just a matter of simple proportion, however; unless there is a further difference that escapes me, we need also to consider the inverse gearing of list seats to constituency seats, which is therefore much stronger in Scotland as a result. (If a party does well in the FPTP seats in a region, votes for it in the region as a whole for the region list seats are massively devalued.)

    *thinks* was there a salient difference, in, say, Welsh politics that might explain Mr Blair's administration's differing policies ...?
    Was there? In the 1990s?
    Not sure. But PC perhaps weren't a perceived threat to the same degree as the SNP. Tories were, I think? The difference is still odd, now it's been raised. Never mind, maybe someone will explain it one decade.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Lol. There’s actually a Twitter account, complete with maps, to help the “saboteurs”

    It’s called “Russian Bridges Go BOOM!”

    https://twitter.com/bruckenruski/status/1520471760159842310?s=21&t=sFVGKu7J_hYMF7gEAJpvTA

    LOL, but Google My Maps

    Unavailable

    This map is no longer available due to a violation of our Terms of Service and/or policies.

    Spoilsports.
    They put a new one up.
    https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1yIT68b_ly3-SLavjl7YTZ5yHZ8l-5OUq&ll=50.01016912474845,31.005938008701833&z=4
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Some background on Lavrov pissing off the Israelis this weekend:

    "To remain somewhat relevant, Russia is doing away with its image as an even-handed actor in the conflict and is resorting back to leaning toward Palestinians to gain leverage over Israel in times of tensions."

    https://ridl.io/en/the-end-of-russia-s-balancing-act-in-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929
    New thread.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    You are absolutely right: there is a small group of nutters (Madison Cawthorn, Rand Paul, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Candace Owens, Steve Bannon), but mostly they have fallen into line.

    Some choice quotes for you:

    “Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug. Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and it is incredibly evil.” - Cawthorn

    “NATO has been supplying the neo-Nazis in Ukraine with powerful weapons and extensive training on how to use them. What the hell is going with these #NATONazis?” - Taylor Greene

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “No Republican should vote for any money for Ukraine. $0 for Ukraine.” - Steve Bannon

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    Trump & Chomsky up a tree..


    The giveaway in that statement is 'prolong'. If someone's only concern is to end things as quickly as possible, and not the form that ending might take, then they are just saying Ukraine must surrender, and trying to hide it.

    Not well either, given Putin and cronies have literally made the same 'Terrible to prolong this' argument.
    As indeed have a number of people on here... (Mostly people posting from IPs which coincidentally happen to be on lists of compromised PCs.)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    One of the many reasons I am keen to see Putin fall (and ideally to end up with a bullet in the back of the head) is so that Trump sees* that the life of an autocrat is far from all plane sailing.

    * Yeah, I know it'll make no difference

    I’ve met a few Trump voters on this trip. They’re not all thick ugly racists

    Some are smart and funny and admit Trump is a bit dangerous and crazy, they just believe the Woke Dems are even crazier and more dangerous. They are particularly agitated by soaring crime
    Despite their Second Amendment arsenals? Despite law enforcement being a County, City or State responsibility, with a few Federal exceptions? And despite the Republicans largely running these in the Red States that you have toured?

    +++++

    I’m not saying their voting intentions are justified. I’m just telling you I’ve met these people, and this is what they say

    @Foxy also misses that Minneapolis and Portland (both Democratic cities) have had a lot of looting and violence. Now, I don't believe that Antifa exists (as as organised movement), but I certainly can believe that rural Americans think that violence will come to their towns and villages if the Democrats are elected.

    Americans fearing hordes of criminals bred in swarming cities is as old as the Republic and agrarian vision of Thomas Jefferson.

    Was central to pre-Civil War nativism and post-CW populism, perhaps best exemplified by William Jennings Bryan. (In contrast, progressivism was a urban-based ideology.) Also key to prohibitionism and post-WW1 nativism.

    Nothing new under the American sun.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    Trump & Chomsky up a tree..


    The giveaway in that statement is 'prolong'. If someone's only concern is to end things as quickly as possible, and not the form that ending might take, then they are just saying Ukraine must surrender, and trying to hide it.

    Not well either, given Putin and cronies have literally made the same 'Terrible to prolong this' argument.
    As indeed have a number of people on here... (Mostly people posting from IPs which coincidentally happen to be on lists of compromised PCs.)
    The real giveaway is when you mock Putin in emasculating terms and they absolutely go off on one.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    You are absolutely right: there is a small group of nutters (Madison Cawthorn, Rand Paul, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Candace Owens, Steve Bannon), but mostly they have fallen into line.

    Some choice quotes for you:

    “Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug. Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and it is incredibly evil.” - Cawthorn

    “NATO has been supplying the neo-Nazis in Ukraine with powerful weapons and extensive training on how to use them. What the hell is going with these #NATONazis?” - Taylor Greene

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “No Republican should vote for any money for Ukraine. $0 for Ukraine.” - Steve Bannon

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers
    Remember that "globalist" really means "Jewish". Their anti-Semitism really fuels the visceral element of this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Aslan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    You are absolutely right: there is a small group of nutters (Madison Cawthorn, Rand Paul, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Candace Owens, Steve Bannon), but mostly they have fallen into line.

    Some choice quotes for you:

    “Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug. Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and it is incredibly evil.” - Cawthorn

    “NATO has been supplying the neo-Nazis in Ukraine with powerful weapons and extensive training on how to use them. What the hell is going with these #NATONazis?” - Taylor Greene

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “No Republican should vote for any money for Ukraine. $0 for Ukraine.” - Steve Bannon

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers
    Remember that "globalist" really means "Jewish". Their anti-Semitism really fuels the visceral element of this.
    They will have to be going some to outdo the infamous Chris Williamson who blamed accusations that he was an anti-Semite on an international Israeli conspiracy to discredit him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    Trump & Chomsky up a tree..


    The giveaway in that statement is 'prolong'. If someone's only concern is to end things as quickly as possible, and not the form that ending might take, then they are just saying Ukraine must surrender, and trying to hide it.

    Not well either, given Putin and cronies have literally made the same 'Terrible to prolong this' argument.
    As indeed have a number of people on here...
    Well, I wanted to be polite about it. Fair to say that a fatalistic viewpoint of Ukrainian options combined with a morally superior desire to see things come to an end quickly comes across as suspicious in its preferred outcomes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ydoethur said:

    Aslan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)

    I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow

    There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised

    There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.

    Polling suggests my impression is correct:


    “Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/

    You are absolutely right: there is a small group of nutters (Madison Cawthorn, Rand Paul, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Candace Owens, Steve Bannon), but mostly they have fallen into line.

    Some choice quotes for you:

    “Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug. Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and it is incredibly evil.” - Cawthorn

    “NATO has been supplying the neo-Nazis in Ukraine with powerful weapons and extensive training on how to use them. What the hell is going with these #NATONazis?” - Taylor Greene

    “President Zelensky is a very bad character who is working with globalists against the interests of his own people.” - Candace Owens

    “No Republican should vote for any money for Ukraine. $0 for Ukraine.” - Steve Bannon

    “Zelensky is a globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons.” - Wendy Rogers
    Remember that "globalist" really means "Jewish". Their anti-Semitism really fuels the visceral element of this.
    They will have to be going some to outdo the infamous Chris Williamson who blamed accusations that he was an anti-Semite on an international Israeli conspiracy to discredit him.
    Hilarious stuff. I cannot quite figure out if he was super proud of himself for coming up with a foolproof defence against the accusation and didn't see the flaw, or if he really believes he is not an anti-semite, which he very much is.
This discussion has been closed.