I’ve met a few Trump voters on this trip. They’re not all thick ugly racists
Some are smart and funny and admit Trump is a bit dangerous and crazy, they just believe the Woke Dems are even crazier and more dangerous. They are particularly agitated by soaring crime
I thought the "answer" to soaring crime was for everyone to have guns which presumably they can in many parts of the USA.
So, if you get high crime with an armed populace and armed police and high crime with an unarmed populace with unarmed Police it may be the guns (which we are reliably told don't kill people) are irrelevant and there are other factors at work.
Thought @Leon might appreciate my just unpacked decanter, being as it is a combination of two of his favoured topics: wine and rather phallic crafting. I like to imagine that the balls at the bottom were made with some skilful and delicate blowing.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
What a shame. Another day, another Russian armoury up in smoke.
That’s not going to be a Ukranian missile, so it’s either some sort of sabotage by domestic actors or foreign special agents, or a genuine accident as someone made the machine go faster than it was supposed to.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
At the start of the conflict, Russia committed over 120 battalion tactical groups, approximately 65 per cent of its entire ground combat strength.
It is likely that more than a quarter of these units have now been rendered combat ineffective.
Some of Russia’s most elite units, including the VDV Airborne Forces, have suffered the highest levels of attrition. It will probably take years for Russia to reconstitute these forces.
The other day I put my finger in my backside (*) and said that, in terms of tanks and people, 50 BTG's worth of Russian capability had gone. That's 40 percent. I also gave my working
It's possible that many of those BTG's have been regenerated, but it's still one heck of a pasting. A question is how 'thin' the BTG's currently are. If a BTG is supposed to have ten tanks, how many only have seven or eight? And if one is supposed to have 800-900 people, how many are at that level of manpower?
(*) Figuratively, not literally...
Well, depending on whom exactly you believe, Russia has lost between 600 and 900 tanks of the 1,200 it went in with.
I’m surprised it’s not more than a quarter of units that have been rendered ‘combat ineffective’. Maybe a few of them have been resupplied with those barely-serviceable WWII relics that were seen heading West on trains from Siberia.
My understanding is that the tank factory that is closed is only the one producing the new, replacement tank, and that other tank factories are still operating. Does anyone know if that is true and, if so, what the current Russian tank production rate is?
Interesting question. We know that the Uralvagonzavod factory at Chelyabinsk, that produced the T72, closed because of parts shortages under sanctions, but it’s not clear what other manufacturing capability exists in Russia. The closed plant was said to be the largest in the country.
Given that they are losing 8-13 tanks per day in the war, and clearly hadn’t planned for a protracted conflict that might require stockpiling equipment, it does appear that they are rapidly becoming short of them in the field.
I’m no expert on tank manufacturing timescales, but would have thought that weeks-per-tank was a more likely measure of a factory’s output than tanks-per-week.
Wars always chew through stockpiles of equipment much more quickly than people expect - and I suspect that effects both sides.
With that said, the combined Western world almost certainly has both more manufacturing capabilities, and more inventory than dos Russia. And I suspect attackers suffer greater materiel loss than defenders.
Oh indeed. I’m not too sure that anyone in Russia expected quite the Western response they got, when it came to arming Ukraine with modern equipment and training. They have pretty much unlimited supply of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, with supplies of heavy offensive weapons coming across the border shortly.
I'm sure that is true. I'm quite surprised myself. We are usually very good at the words, but not so good at the action. And on the topic of what we are not good at and hope we will be different this time as what we do afterwards. I hope we throw everything we can at rebuilding Ukraine.
I’ve met a few Trump voters on this trip. They’re not all thick ugly racists
Some are smart and funny and admit Trump is a bit dangerous and crazy, they just believe the Woke Dems are even crazier and more dangerous. They are particularly agitated by soaring crime
I thought the "answer" to soaring crime was for everyone to have guns which presumably they can in many parts of the USA.
So, if you get high crime with an armed populace and armed police and high crime with an unarmed populace with unarmed Police it may be the guns (which we are reliably told don't kill people) are irrelevant and there are other factors at work.
Well, it's very literally an arms race innit? It is very credible that the answer where there's no guns is stick with no guns, and where there's lots of guns, is still more guns. Unless you think if you outlaw guns the bad guys will meekly hand theirs in at the same rate as the good guys do. Do you find that likely?
Nigel Adams, Con, Selby & Ainsty Crispin Blunt, Con, Reigate Charles Walker, Con, Broxbourne Margaret Beckett, Lab, Derby South Paul Blomfield, Lab, Sheffield Central Ben Bradshaw, Lab, Exeter Alex Cunningham, Lab, Stockton North Kate Green, Lab, Stretford and Urmston Harriet Harman, Lab, Camberwell & Peckham Margaret Hodge, Lab, Barking Barry Sheerman, Lab, Huddersfield Alan Whitehead, Lab, Southampton Test Rosie Winterton, Lab, Doncaster Central
Douglas Ross, Con, Moray
Wayne David, Lab, Caerphilly
Labour heavily over-represented. No SNP, no Lib Dems, no NI.
I think I can confidently predict that Helen Morgan will retire as an MP at the next election.
And Mr Ross is completing his move to Holyrood anyway (admittedly the same effect on Westminster numbers as if he was picking up his pension).
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
I hear Pyotr has a favoured son of conscription age, comrade.....
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans
I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
Quips like that, it's easy to see how legs get broken.....
That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans
I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
Very good!
But on the serious point, I can think of one major fuel tank explosion in the UK in the last 30 years.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
I'm sure that is true. I'm quite surprised myself. We are usually very good at the words, but not so good at the action. And on the topic of what we are not good at and hope we will be different this time as what we do afterwards. I hope we throw everything we can at rebuilding Ukraine.
Indeed and whatever "victory" looks like at the end of this, in some ways our involvement in Ukraine will only just begin as the guns fall silent.
We know 5.5 million people have fled and enormous economic and infrastructural damage has been done especially in the east and south but also in the north east and close to Kyiv. Putting that right and providing accommodation for those who wish to return will require a huge short and medium term investment in the country.
That will involve not just the EU but the UK, USA and others.
There's also going to be the thorny question of post-conflict Russia and our relationship with whatever and whoever follows Putin. That's one for another day.
Beyond even that there's the re-birth of NATO and the re-commitment of its elements to the defence of Europe and whether we see that in terms of increased spending by individual countries or whether the strategic overview of NATO's role will be transformed by the end of the Ukraine conflict.
That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans
I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now
Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact
One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead
You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
Quips like that, it's easy to see how legs get broken.....
Not only liked but had to comment through the tears of laughter.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
Very good!
But on the serious point, I can think of one major fuel tank explosion in the UK in the last 30 years.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans
I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now
Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact
One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead
You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.
Motive means opportunity.
We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
At one time I worked in a hospital with a Regional Burns Unit, not far from a big oil refinery. It was proposed to shift the burns Unit 15 miles North, to a much bigger and better hospital. I asked if there was a problem with the refinery needing easy access to a Burns Unit and after investigating we realised that in the past 20 years we'd had NO patients from the refinery. Main roads, such as the M11, were far more likely to gives us burns victims!
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
Very good!
But on the serious point, I can think of one major fuel tank explosion in the UK in the last 30 years.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
Very good!
But on the serious point, I can think of one major fuel tank explosion in the UK in the last 30 years.
There were also a couple of transport accidents, e.g. one not that long ago near Llanelli, but that's a bit different.
I was on my way to Heathrow down the A1 when that blew up. For a few seconds I thought we'd been nuked.
I mentioned ASOS the other day. A little known consequence of that fire is that it destroyed ASOS's data centre. They used the insurance money to completely reboot the business into what it has become today.
That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans
I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now
Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact
One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead
You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
At one time I worked in a hospital with a Regional Burns Unit, not far from a big oil refinery. It was proposed tomshift the burns Unit 15 miles North, to a much bigger and better hospital. I asked if there was a problem with the refinery needing easy access to a Burns Unit and after investigating we realised that in the past 20 years we'd had NO patients from the refinery. Main roads, such as the M11, were far more likely to gives us burns victims!
A little investigation suggests the previous major fire involving a petrol storage tank was in 1951 in Bristol.
One of the many reasons I am keen to see Putin fall (and ideally to end up with a bullet in the back of the head) is so that Trump sees* that the life of an autocrat is far from all plane sailing.
* Yeah, I know it'll make no difference
I’ve met a few Trump voters on this trip. They’re not all thick ugly racists
Some are smart and funny and admit Trump is a bit dangerous and crazy, they just believe the Woke Dems are even crazier and more dangerous. They are particularly agitated by soaring crime
Despite their Second Amendment arsenals? Despite law enforcement being a County, City or State responsibility, with a few Federal exceptions? And despite the Republicans largely running these in the Red States that you have toured?
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
Thought @Leon might appreciate my just unpacked decanter, being as it is a combination of two of his favoured topics: wine and rather phallic crafting. I like to imagine that the balls at the bottom were made with some skilful and delicate blowing.
Very elegant. Offset by Hague Blue?
Judging by the pots under the stairs, it’s a Tikkurila paint from Finland. For a Finnish finish I suppose..
That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans
I'm surprised the Russian authorities track that data in their census given Putin's insistance about the inherent Russianness of Ukrainians.
I guess they have to, legally. Ukrainians have different passports. At least for now
Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact
One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead
You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.
Motive means opportunity.
We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
Yes. The more I think about it the more convinced I am this is Ukrainian citizens in Russia
Some of the grotesque news reports out of Ukraine make ME want to throw petrol bombs at the Russian Embassy. Imagine the power of this imagery and reportage if it is your Ukrainian family and nation suffering, and you have chortling Russians all around you, cheering on the invasion
It would send you mad with hatred. It would make you do things
One of the many reasons I am keen to see Putin fall (and ideally to end up with a bullet in the back of the head) is so that Trump sees* that the life of an autocrat is far from all plane sailing.
* Yeah, I know it'll make no difference
I’ve met a few Trump voters on this trip. They’re not all thick ugly racists
Some are smart and funny and admit Trump is a bit dangerous and crazy, they just believe the Woke Dems are even crazier and more dangerous. They are particularly agitated by soaring crime
Despite their Second Amendment arsenals? Despite law enforcement being a County, City or State responsibility, with a few Federal exceptions? And despite the Republicans largely running these in the Red States that you have toured?
+++++
I’m not saying their voting intentions are justified. I’m just telling you I’ve met these people, and this is what they say
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
If only Holyrood was fptp that would really stuff the SNP.
Oh.
Look on the bright side, the Holyrood system propelled the SCons from utter irrelevance to near irrelevance. The dream team of BJ and DRoss are doing their best to fix that though.
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
Why stop there? Why not a fixed rate charge for wasteful central government? About £1k a month for every adult and child in the UK would do it.
Thought @Leon might appreciate my just unpacked decanter, being as it is a combination of two of his favoured topics: wine and rather phallic crafting. I like to imagine that the balls at the bottom were made with some skilful and delicate blowing.
Very elegant. Offset by Hague Blue?
Judging by the pots under the stairs, it’s a Tikkurila paint from Finland. For a Finnish finish I suppose..
I love that colour.
Our flat is a bit dark though so we have been trying to brighten it up. That colour would be Wonderful for a feature wall though.
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
By the way the tactical experts seem to think this is a major development if it’s confirmed. Potential for the Ukrainians now to cut off the Russian supply line from Belgorod and encircle several tens of thousands of Russian troops in around Izyum.
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
I'm suddenly brought back to 1989.
That's because you're out of date.
Cyclical ... I haven't heard that argument for a long time.
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
I'm suddenly brought back to 1989.
That's because you're out of date.
Cyclical ... I haven't heard that argument for a long time.
It was a blast from a bygone age. An argument which was so irresistible in its logic and popular appeal, too.
By the way the tactical experts seem to think this is a major development if it’s confirmed. Potential for the Ukrainians now to cut off the Russian supply line from Belgorod and encircle several tens of thousands of Russian troops in around Izyum.
They need them - to trade to get a million Ukrainians back home....
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
I'm suddenly brought back to 1989.
That's because you're out of date.
Cyclical ... I haven't heard that argument for a long time.
It was a blast from a bygone age. An argument which was so irresistible in its logic and popular appeal, too.
Yes, and hinging on the meaning of "fair". Tommy Sheridan fighting the bailiffs in Glasgow. And Scotland was never the same again.
It's like seeing a brontosaurus eating your daffodils. That wrench of out-of-timeness.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
Which would be smart politically: it would signal to the English that he was not willing to sell out to the Nats, and in the event of a rerun, it would mean that SCon and SLDs would probably be more willing to vote tactically.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
I'm suddenly brought back to 1989.
That's because you're out of date.
Cyclical ... I haven't heard that argument for a long time.
It was a blast from a bygone age. An argument which was so irresistible in its logic and popular appeal, too.
Yes, and hinging on the meaning of "fair". Tommy Sheridan fighting the bailiffs in Glasgow. And Scotland was never the same again.
It's like seeing a brontosaurus eating your daffodils. That wrench of out-of-timeness.
I'm intrigued. When did you see a brontosaurus eating your daffodils?
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
I'm suddenly brought back to 1989.
That's because you're out of date.
Cyclical ... I haven't heard that argument for a long time.
It was a blast from a bygone age. An argument which was so irresistible in its logic and popular appeal, too.
Yes, and hinging on the meaning of "fair". Tommy Sheridan fighting the bailiffs in Glasgow. And Scotland was never the same again.
It's like seeing a brontosaurus eating your daffodils. That wrench of out-of-timeness.
I'm intrigued. When did you see a brontosaurus eating your daffodils?
Only metaphorical - or to be more PB-pedantic, it's a simile I am deploying. Note, however, that I did not say 'dinosaur' as some are currently ripping apart the cherry blossom at the moment.
Okay, "like seeing the Bay City Rollers on TV" might be more accurate anyway.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.
*polite euphemism
FTFY
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
I'm suddenly brought back to 1989.
That's because you're out of date.
Cyclical ... I haven't heard that argument for a long time.
It was a blast from a bygone age. An argument which was so irresistible in its logic and popular appeal, too.
Yes, and hinging on the meaning of "fair". Tommy Sheridan fighting the bailiffs in Glasgow. And Scotland was never the same again.
It's like seeing a brontosaurus eating your daffodils. That wrench of out-of-timeness.
I'm intrigued. When did you see a brontosaurus eating your daffodils?
Only metaphorical - or to be more PB-pedantic, it's a simile I am deploying. Note, however, that I did not say 'dinosaur' as some are currently ripping apart the cherry blossom at the moment.
Well, John Prescott never did have any class, but I'm surprised he's in your garden.
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
I'm suddenly brought back to 1989.
That's because you're out of date.
Cyclical ... I haven't heard that argument for a long time.
It’s a timeless argument. Hit people in the pocket if they vote for waste, to stop them voting for waste. Stop councils playing ideological politics with other peoples money by making every voter pay out of their own pocket for council budgets and therefore council over spending and council waste.
It rather brilliantly gets people voting and thinking about their vote on who delivers effective services the cheapest without silly waste.
Timeless argument. All part of the “Better and Smarter” initiative to do politics smarter and better in this country.
On a separate note, why doesn’t Nicola Sturgeon just own up on the nuclear deterrent. “Non proliferation and then disarmament should of course be the goal of every peace loving person but it’s clear that right now is not the time to be acting unilaterally. An independent Scotland would honour the 2% nato spending commitment and all that membership entails, including if necessary the stationing of the deterrent on the sovereign territory of an independent Scotland”.
She just looks an arse with her current stance. Not quite as bad as the Greens with their “we’d leave NATO but not yet” but not far off it.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
Which would be smart politically: it would signal to the English that he was not willing to sell out to the Nats, and in the event of a rerun, it would mean that SCon and SLDs would probably be more willing to vote tactically.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.
*polite euphemism
FTFY
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
At one time I worked in a hospital with a Regional Burns Unit, not far from a big oil refinery. It was proposed tomshift the burns Unit 15 miles North, to a much bigger and better hospital. I asked if there was a problem with the refinery needing easy access to a Burns Unit and after investigating we realised that in the past 20 years we'd had NO patients from the refinery. Main roads, such as the M11, were far more likely to gives us burns victims!
A little investigation suggests the previous major fire involving a petrol storage tank was in 1951 in Bristol.
If they are therefore blowing up regularly in Russia that suggests a bit more than carelessness.
I remember Buncefield. I was living in Oxfordshire, maybe 40 miles away, in a thatched cottage that had chicken wire on the roof to keep the thatch in place. Early morning (6-ish) I was woken by what sounded like somebody running across the roof. Turns out it was the pressure wave from the explosion rippling through the wire. 40 miles away.
Buncefield came extremely close to causing our food distribution system to crash.
In what universe is right to buy, privatisation, deporting to Rwanda and statues "fizzing with ideas and policy?"
It will be a new Poll Tax next...
Why are saying local authority spending can’t be more fairly funded than now, by every adult paying a fair share?
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
I'm suddenly brought back to 1989.
That's because you're out of date.
Cyclical ... I haven't heard that argument for a long time.
It was a blast from a bygone age. An argument which was so irresistible in its logic and popular appeal, too.
Yes, and hinging on the meaning of "fair". Tommy Sheridan fighting the bailiffs in Glasgow. And Scotland was never the same again.
It's like seeing a brontosaurus eating your daffodils. That wrench of out-of-timeness.
I'm intrigued. When did you see a brontosaurus eating your daffodils?
Only metaphorical - or to be more PB-pedantic, it's a simile I am deploying. Note, however, that I did not say 'dinosaur' as some are currently ripping apart the cherry blossom at the moment.
Well, John Prescott never did have any class, but I'm surprised he's in your garden.
The same ones as currently breeding in OKC's garden.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.
*polite euphemism
FTFY
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
Yes.
If they find themselves in that position, it’s likely to be an unstable government anyway, with a second election coming a few months to a year later, when everyone falls out. The minor parties involved saw what happened to the LDs for going the distance in 2015.
There’s also the minor matter of persuading the Labour MPs to vote for the referendum. I can well imagine quite a few of them arranging to be somewhere else on the day of the vote.
They would govern as a minority for as long as things held together, then go back to the country for a majority.
A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)
I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow
There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised
There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.
Polling suggests my impression is correct:
“Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)
I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow
There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised
There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.
Polling suggests my impression is correct:
“Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
Aside from the baseline of human decency, Americans love a winner, especially if they can attach themselves to it. In this case they can see "their" weapons doing a job.
This is in the same general way as Brits love an underdog.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.
*polite euphemism
FTFY
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
Not familiar with the details in Wales, to my shame. Is it fiddled there too?
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
HURT is an acronym used in industrial safety. Accidents happen when you are:
Hurried - rushing to do things Upset - stressed or otherwise emotional Routine - overconfident, unfocused, on autopilot Tired - self-explanatory
I can imagine that in a factory being pushed to produce for the war machine that H, U and T are in abundance.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
They tend to catch fire only once. They are pretty useless after that. I couldn't resist.
That's a little like the old gag:
Nervous passenger to air steward: "Do these planes often crash?" Air steward: "only once"
A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)
I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow
There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised
There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.
Polling suggests my impression is correct:
“Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
Aside from the baseline of human decency, Americans love a winner, especially if they can attach themselves to it. In this case they can see "their" weapons doing a job.
This is in the same general way as Brits love an underdog.
So Ukraine wins on both counts.
It's definitely a Trump weak spot in 2024. If Dems can run around the clock ads about all the sucking up to Putin and general mateyness between autocrats then perhaps they have a small opening of a chance despite the economy.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
Which would be smart politically: it would signal to the English that he was not willing to sell out to the Nats, and in the event of a rerun, it would mean that SCon and SLDs would probably be more willing to vote tactically.
On the other hand, Slab is perhaps the party whose current voters are most split on independence, so it could be quite damaging for Slab as well. Difficult to judge the net result, esp. as the Tories will have had a bad fright in the UK as a whole.
On initiatives, referendums, and legislatures. Washington state, where I live, has all three, and the first two tend to result in different outcomes on some subjects than the third.
Example: Our legislature has been willing to vote for "affirmative action", as it is usually called here in the US, but the voters prefer civil rights: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiative_200
Initiative 200 was a Washington state initiative to the Legislature promoted by California affirmative-action opponent Ward Connerly, and filed by Scott Smith and Tim Eyman.[1] It sought to prohibit racial and gender preferences by state and local government. It was on the Washington ballot in November 1998 and passed with 58.22% of the vote. It added to Washington's law (but not its constitution) the following language:
The state shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting.[2]
Initiative 200 effectively curtailed any form of affirmative action in the state.[3] In April 2019, the Washington Legislature passed Initiative 1000, ending the ban on affirmative action.[4] However, in November 2019, Referendum 88 blocked Initiative 1000 from going into effect.
(The Wikipedia description is one-sided, leaving out, for instance, that Asians, especially Japanese-Americans, prefer civil rights to affirmaive action.
It also omits this signficant fact: The principal beneficiaries of affirmative action in contracting, prior to I-200, were white women. Since Washington law gives married women equal rights to a husband's earnings, it was often possible to convert a contracting company to predominantly female-owned by giving a small piece of it to a minor daughter. And some contractors did just that.
And there was this curiosity: Japanese-Americans were considered minorities in contracting, but not in college and university admissions. So, as someone quipped, years ago, they were simultaneously white, and non-white. I suppose a quantum mechanic could explain that.)
I haven't seen a formal study, but I believe that civil rights initiatives in other parts of the US usually win against affirmative action.
It is seldom mentioned, but affirmative action has many similarities to the ways political machines, most of them Democratic, allocated jobs and contracts.
(The phrase "affirmative action" has an obscure history. It was brought in to replace words like "quotas" as they became poisonous, politically. I think it started with companies such as IBM who would say that, not only did they not discriminate against blacks, they engaged in "affirmative actions" to recruit blacks by, sending recruiters to historically black colleges and universities, and advertising in black magazines and newspapers. But now it means quotas, or "positive discrimination".)
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.
*polite euphemism
FTFY
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
Not familiar with the details in Wales, to my shame. Is it fiddled there too?
It's the same system. Which effectively means because of the way the seats are drawn up Labour will always win 25-30 seats regardless of their vote share.
Putin has successfully extended NATO all along his northern border. Brilliant, not
Sweden will presumably follow, so NATO reaches far into the European Arctic
This war is a catastrophe for Russia
It's Suez on speed. That may have been a humiliation for Britain and France but at least they still had functioning militaries and an alliance with the US at the end of it.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.
*polite euphemism
FTFY
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
Not familiar with the details in Wales, to my shame. Is it fiddled there too?
It's the same system. Which effectively means because of the way the seats are drawn up Labour will always win 25-30 seats regardless of their vote share.
It is actually worse in Wales. They only have 20 topup seats so the 40 seats by FPTP have a greater weighting. In Scotland they have 56 topup seats to 73 FPTP seats.
A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)
I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow
There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised
There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.
Polling suggests my impression is correct:
“Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
I just wandered off into one of the weirder areas of the internet. Between the 2nd and 5th of May Biden will be replaced by Trump as President. I read it on the internet so it must be true.
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.
*polite euphemism
FTFY
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
The Scottish system is better than the Welsh. In Wales, the proportion of FPTP seats to list seats is 2:1. In Scotland it is 9:7.
Putin has successfully extended NATO all along his northern border. Brilliant, not
Sweden will presumably follow, so NATO reaches far into the European Arctic
This war is a catastrophe for Russia
Wait until an re-united Moldova, a fully liberated Ukraine and fully democratic Belarus join ...
Belarus sounds like a joke, but looking at the spanking Russia has taken, and what it did to a neighbour it fell out with, there has to be the glimmer of a thought in Minsk that the other lot might be happier partners, one day. If you can get the remnants of the Russian military out of your hair.
Excellent point made on that thread: this might not be “an attack” it could simply be signs that Russians are skimping on health & safety, as they push these factories to the limit
I think that's probably true, but there is huge value in getting the story out in the Russian workforce that these might be 5th column attacks. Who is going to be fully concentrating on the job if Pyotr on the next bench (who you never liked anyway) might be trying to blow you up. Has he really gone to the loo, or escaped the facility before it goes afire?
Or it could indeed be sabotage 🤷♂️
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
I certainly wouldn't rule it out. And of course it does not have to be one thing or the other.
I’d need to know “how often fuel tanks catch fire” to grasp if this is likely sabotage
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
i doubt it is very common, very rare in uk for sure
Interesting answers from Nicola Sturgeon this morning on legal advice around IndyRef2
Should be said an appeal of the Commissioner's ruling has to be on a point of law, rather than on his judgement of public interest
I have my doubts Ministers will bother to challenge..
But noteworthy the FM refused to commit outright to publish it, instead saying they will consider the ruling (which doesn't leave much wiggle room) and on the line the Government will comply fully with the law
Any further appeal by the Scot Gov would go to the Court of Session
As the next GE is likely to be 2024 is it sensible for her to try and push indyref2 by end of 2023? Why not wait until the very real prospect of a hung parliament?
And if by some chance Labour did pull off an outright victory, would Keir Starmer really resist calls for a second referendum?
IIRC Starmer has already indicated he would reject a 2nd indyref. For obvious political reasons
If the SNP hold the balance of power Starmer equally 'obviously' wouldn't
My guess is that, even then, Starmer would stall and refuse and dare the SNP to vote him down and put the Tories back in power
You really think that after 14 years in the wilderness Labour would refuse power all because they don't believe in a second Scottish referendum?
They’d snap the SNPs hand off for power as well as give them a referendum, probably in exchange for a vote to change from FPTP to a form of PR.
Would that be the Blairite form of PR that keeps the SNP in power?
You've got it the wrong way round. The d'Hondt system was modified* to minimise the chance of any party other than Labourbecoming a majority government.
*polite euphemism
FTFY
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
No, that was a feature not a bug (to rebut with another annoying PB tic ...). It was well understood that no party would ever get a majority under plausible conditions. There was a deliberate agreement/consensus with the LDs that there would always be a Slab/SLD coalition administration. But, as you say, it collided with 'reality' if not one inhabited by most Unionists.
You are thinking only of Scotland. I'm thinking of Wales too.
The Scottish system is better than not quite as epically shit as the Welsh one. In Wales, the proportion of FPTP seats to list seats is 2:1. In Scotland it is 9:7.
"[Yelena Gibert] described a general feeling in Mariupol of “hopelessness and despair,” saying residents “are starting to talk of suicide because they’re stuck in this situation.”
I just wandered off into one of the weirder areas of the internet. Between the 2nd and 5th of May Biden will be replaced by Trump as President. I read it on the internet so it must be true.
Putin has successfully extended NATO all along his northern border. Brilliant, not
Sweden will presumably follow, so NATO reaches far into the European Arctic
This war is a catastrophe for Russia
Wait until an re-united Moldova, a fully liberated Ukraine and fully democratic Belarus join ...
Belarus sounds like a joke, but looking at the spanking Russia has taken, and what it did to a neighbour it fell out with, there has to be the glimmer of a thought in Minsk that the other lot might be happier partners, one day. If you can get the remnants of the Russian military out of your hair.
Belarus didn’t expect that many of the economic sanctions applied to Russia, are also being applied to themselves. They’ll likely sideline Lukashenko reasonably quickly, and his replacement will be more willing to look West - especially when they see the sanctions aren’t going away any time soon.
A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)
I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow
There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised
There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.
Polling suggests my impression is correct:
“Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
A cultural observation from yesterday’s Nawlins jazz fest (which is brilliant, btw; if you ever get the chance: go)
I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow
There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised
There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.
Polling suggests my impression is correct:
“Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
On a separate note, why doesn’t Nicola Sturgeon just own up on the nuclear deterrent. “Non proliferation and then disarmament should of course be the goal of every peace loving person but it’s clear that right now is not the time to be acting unilaterally. An independent Scotland would honour the 2% nato spending commitment and all that membership entails, including if necessary the stationing of the deterrent on the sovereign territory of an independent Scotland”.
She just looks an arse with her current stance. Not quite as bad as the Greens with their “we’d leave NATO but not yet” but not far off it.
As Michael Jordan once said, Republicans buy sneakers too.
Probably more of them as they have all the money.
Bet you donuts to dollars (you wagering latter) that in today's America, self-IDed Democrats have got as much if not more moolah collectively than Republicans.
Given that affluent urbanites & suburban voters have been swinging away from GOP and toward Dems during current millennium, a trend exacerbated by 45.
Comments
So, if you get high crime with an armed populace and armed police and high crime with an unarmed populace with unarmed Police it may be the guns (which we are reliably told don't kill people) are irrelevant and there are other factors at work.
Possibly down to pushing production of this key element of the war effort too far, too fast.
Or else the Russians will claim James Bond has been busy again.
"We'd have captured Ukraine - it it wasn't for you pesky Brits!"
*Putin shakes fist towards London.*
“#MOSCOW: In Mytishchi, barely 30 minutes from the Kremlin, fuel oil tanks were set on fire. It is no longer humanly possible to keep track of all the fires and explosions all over #Russia. A train bridge was also successfully blown up in #Kursk, for example. #WindofChange 🌬️ 🔥”
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1520859285072265216?s=21&t=muVuxgOFWjjknU3o0IsoIg
That’s not going to be a Ukranian missile, so it’s either some sort of sabotage by domestic actors or foreign special agents, or a genuine accident as someone made the machine go faster than it was supposed to.
If it is, then who on earth is doing it? I don’t believe western agencies would risk it. Best guess is Ukrainian citizens in Russia. There must be a lot of them and they must be fucking angry, so you can’t blame them. Indeed I cheer them
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia
That’s 2m potential saboteurs. It only takes 1% of them to be angry enough to “do something” and that is big trouble for Putin. 1% = 20,000 would-be partisans
Ukraine
Belarus
Canada
New Zealand
Other"
But on the serious point, I can think of one major fuel tank explosion in the UK in the last 30 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buncefield_fire
There were also a couple of transport accidents, e.g. one not that long ago near Llanelli, but that's a bit different.
We know 5.5 million people have fled and enormous economic and infrastructural damage has been done especially in the east and south but also in the north east and close to Kyiv. Putting that right and providing accommodation for those who wish to return will require a huge short and medium term investment in the country.
That will involve not just the EU but the UK, USA and others.
There's also going to be the thorny question of post-conflict Russia and our relationship with whatever and whoever follows Putin. That's one for another day.
Beyond even that there's the re-birth of NATO and the re-commitment of its elements to the defence of Europe and whether we see that in terms of increased spending by individual countries or whether the strategic overview of NATO's role will be transformed by the end of the Ukraine conflict.
Imagine you’re a feisty 19 year old Ukrainian in Russia. You have your family in Kyiv in constant contact
One day they tell you: yesterday the Russian army came, and raped your sister Olga, then they shot her dead
You’re gonna go out and blow up a factory, or a railway bridge. I would.
Accept - they prop up the hated Tories.
Refuse - confirms the statements of Alba that they're not interested in independence.
Would not a fixed-rate community charge for all adult residents be fantastic for 21st Century democracy, because if your council wants to be a silly big spender, such as on EU flags and other crazy politics, it’s so obvious what you do, you stop voting for them. We can at least agree here, What we need from local democracy is effective services without waste and stupid idealogical waste such as on socialist energy schemes, EU flags etc, so community charge on all adult residents makes the right thing to vote for so crystal clear at elections, if your vote or non vote wallops you in your pocket if you get it wrong!
Who doesn’t want low taxes and effective services from their local council? and community charge on adult residents is precisely the best way to ensure that by bringing every adult resident thoughtfully into the democratic votes.
Some of the “lefty herd” thinking on PB is so out of date and so lazy.
We know the motive is there. Maybe for some of this stuff the means is fairly straightforward. What’s surprising is how much opportunity there is. This isn’t just one or two incidents now. It’s happening every day all over Russia. Fascinating.
Main roads, such as the M11, were far more likely to gives us burns victims!
I certainly recall seeing the smoke. An enormous plume
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/history/fuel-tank-explosion-bristol-history-908
So it's pretty rare.
If they are therefore blowing up regularly in Russia that suggests a bit more than carelessness.
I'm beginning to think Leon's political judgement is awry.
Some of the grotesque news reports out of Ukraine make ME want to throw petrol bombs at the Russian Embassy. Imagine the power of this imagery and reportage if it is your Ukrainian family and nation suffering, and you have chortling Russians all around you, cheering on the invasion
It would send you mad with hatred. It would make you do things
+++++
I’m not saying their voting intentions are justified. I’m just telling you I’ve met these people, and this is what they say
Oh.
Look on the bright side, the Holyrood system propelled the SCons from utter irrelevance to near irrelevance. The dream team of BJ and DRoss are doing their best to fix that though.
Why not a fixed rate charge for wasteful central government?
About £1k a month for every adult and child in the UK would do it.
Our flat is a bit dark though so we have been trying to brighten it up. That colour would be Wonderful for a feature wall though.
https://www.tikkurila.co.uk/colour-directory?gclid=CjwKCAjwgr6TBhAGEiwA3aVuIb4FiFgCLs2k1wRr9Zn5InHCrNlOcQ1rsCWPGuyo4BNfUja0Uw6QIBoCsBEQAvD_BwE
By the way the tactical experts seem to think this is a major development if it’s confirmed. Potential for the Ukrainians now to cut off the Russian supply line from Belgorod and encircle several tens of thousands of Russian troops in around Izyum.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-02/disney-s-florida-fight-shows-why-corporate-progressivism-can-t-win
An argument which was so irresistible in its logic and popular appeal, too.
It's like seeing a brontosaurus eating your daffodils. That wrench of out-of-timeness.
*polite euphemism
Okay, "like seeing the Bay City Rollers on TV" might be more accurate anyway.
As with most of Blair's ideas, it looked good until it collided with this thing called 'reality' that the rest of us inhabit.
It rather brilliantly gets people voting and thinking about their vote on who delivers effective services the cheapest without silly waste.
Timeless argument. All part of the “Better and Smarter” initiative to do politics smarter and better in this country.
She just looks an arse with her current stance. Not quite as bad as the Greens with their “we’d leave NATO but not yet” but not far off it.
Buncefield came extremely close to causing our food distribution system to crash.
https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/wildlife-guides/bird-a-z/blue-tit/
If they find themselves in that position, it’s likely to be an unstable government anyway, with a second election coming a few months to a year later, when everyone falls out. The minor parties involved saw what happened to the LDs for going the distance in 2015.
There’s also the minor matter of persuading the Labour MPs to vote for the referendum. I can well imagine quite a few of them arranging to be somewhere else on the day of the vote.
They would govern as a minority for as long as things held together, then go back to the country for a majority.
I saw a LOT of Ukrainian flags and Ukrainian colours. One guy had dyed his white beard blue and yellow
There’s a lot of support for Ukraine in the USA. I wonder if this is partly because it satisfyingly unites most Americans against an obviously evil enemy, at a time when politics is generally and horribly polarised
There is apparently a rump of Trumpites that “supports” Russia or Putin or whatever. I haven’t met them.
Polling suggests my impression is correct:
“Two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Americans are stalwart in their support of the embattled country, with a large, bipartisan majority supporting increased sanctions against Russia and most also backing military and humanitarian support for Ukrainians, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/02/poll-ukraine-support-biden/
This is in the same general way as Brits love an underdog.
So Ukraine wins on both counts.
@Conflicts
·
5h
BREAKING: Finnish media reporting that Finland will officially apply to join NATO on May 12
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1521053792220987393
===
They should do it on 9th May.
Hurried - rushing to do things
Upset - stressed or otherwise emotional
Routine - overconfident, unfocused, on autopilot
Tired - self-explanatory
I can imagine that in a factory being pushed to produce for the war machine that H, U and T are in abundance.
Nervous passenger to air steward: "Do these planes often crash?"
Air steward: "only once"
Example: Our legislature has been willing to vote for "affirmative action", as it is usually called here in the US, but the voters prefer civil rights: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiative_200 (The Wikipedia description is one-sided, leaving out, for instance, that Asians, especially Japanese-Americans, prefer civil rights to affirmaive action.
It also omits this signficant fact: The principal beneficiaries of affirmative action in contracting, prior to I-200, were white women. Since Washington law gives married women equal rights to a husband's earnings, it was often possible to convert a contracting company to predominantly female-owned by giving a small piece of it to a minor daughter. And some contractors did just that.
And there was this curiosity: Japanese-Americans were considered minorities in contracting, but not in college and university admissions. So, as someone quipped, years ago, they were simultaneously white, and non-white. I suppose a quantum mechanic could explain that.)
I haven't seen a formal study, but I believe that civil rights initiatives in other parts of the US usually win against affirmative action.
It is seldom mentioned, but affirmative action has many similarities to the ways political machines, most of them Democratic, allocated jobs and contracts.
(The phrase "affirmative action" has an obscure history. It was brought in to replace words like "quotas" as they became poisonous, politically. I think it started with companies such as IBM who would say that, not only did they not discriminate against blacks, they engaged in "affirmative actions" to recruit blacks by, sending recruiters to historically black colleges and universities, and advertising in black magazines and newspapers. But now it means quotas, or "positive discrimination".)
Sweden will presumably follow, so NATO reaches far into the European Arctic
This war is a catastrophe for Russia
Putin has played a blinder. I'm sure he will take it all with good russian grace.
In Wales, the proportion of FPTP seats to list seats is 2:1. In Scotland it is 9:7.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/02/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#escaping-mariupol-one-resident-said-that-those-left-behind-were-gripped-with-hopelessness
Two geopoliticos who deserve a shout out (and at?)
> Alfred Thayer Mahan & "Influence of Sea Power on History: 1660-1783"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Thayer_Mahan#:~:text=the Russian Empire.-,Sea power,a rigorous study of history.
> Karl Hauhofer who coined the term "Lebensraum"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Haushofer
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1521098489136046082?s=21&t=7bAiMWcDTOiy0LXUluC5KA
Given that affluent urbanites & suburban voters have been swinging away from GOP and toward Dems during current millennium, a trend exacerbated by 45.