I agree that the last minute back of a fag packet devolution package looks pretty desperate and not particularly credible. The principle of further devolution was signed up to by the main parties months ago but there was a failure, either through difficulties in getting agreement or otherwise, to put meat on the bones.
My suspicion is that Labour in particular have been very anxious about the tax raising powers. If, or more accurately when, we also have EVEL they will have a major problem in getting a budget. We are at risk of having an absurd situation where a party has an overall majority in the Commons but no ability at all to govern 90% of the population.
At the moment I really don't trust the polls. Most Scottish polling has been from companies with very poor track records or who have made an arse of themselves. We will hopefully get a better idea today from ICM but the likelihood is that this is going to be TCTC with considerations such as differential turnout capable of swinging the vote one way or another. Those that bet on higher levels of turnout should be grateful for all this angst!
I think your pretty much spot on on all counts here. The Devo Max option at the last minute looks cobbled together and it's very odd it was brought to the fore after people had started voting via post. It is also ridiculous that the English (again!) are just treated like a cheque writing door mat with constitutional promises being made without any reference to them. Essentially the whole current devolution set up is one gigantic Labour gerrymander to ring fence off elements of their fiefdoms from any Tory influence ever on education/health etc whilst still having these fiefdoms' votes available the other way round. It's just plain wrong and has been for 15 years now. How about the Tories seal off income tax policy in East Anglia from a future Labour government but still let the voters of Bury St Edmond's vote on the ambulance service in East Kilbride? Well that would be absurd wouldn't it, except it's pretty much what we've got in reverse.
Thank you Ms Plato. I got a bit animated there for this early hour (!)
This is quite a factoid - that doesn't bode well post-Indy. Businesses don't grow on trees. And lots of the biggies are packing their bags.
The Office for National Statistics’ Business Population Estimates reveal that Scotland had just 740 private businesses per 10,000 adults in early 2013, against 753 in Wales, 785 in Northern Ireland and 984 in England.
and Golly
The result is that Scotland relies to a remarkable degree on employers based outside its borders for jobs. The figures are shocking: companies based in the rest of the UK or overseas account for 3.1pc of Scottish firms, 35.2pc of employment and 58.1pc of total turnover, according to Business for Scotland. When one looks at the largest firms in isolation, one discovers that 82.4pc of corporate giants, 63.6pc of jobs and 78.1pc of turnover is ultimately controlled outside Scotland.
Note from the people FPT that the UKIP crowd's screams that Farage was uninvolved with the 2010 GE manifesto because he was not leader is slightly disingenuous.
Farage co-wrote the forward to the manifesto, and put his name to it. Does he always put his name to things he does not read? Given the van incident last night, perhaps not.
" Invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham"
So they wanted three HS2's, not one.
Good lord
I didn't say he was uninvolved, just corrected someone who said he was leader at the last GE
Also @flightpath I didn't bring colour into it, @foxinsox said Carswell would lose WWC support for ukip and I said there were a lot of WWC in Clacton where he is a very popular MP
The van incident... Ukip shuttled people from the North to clacton in a Ukip North East van... I don't see how this is a story unless you genuinely thought they had spray painted ukip North East onto it thin king clacton was in South Shields
I have a fairly busy day ahead, but happy to elaborate on my position on Carswell tonight.
I think he will win in Clacton, but will bring some hidden tensions in UKIP into the spotlight. It may welk be a pyrhic victory.
Carswell appeals to a very different demographic to Farage. I could see myself voting for Carswell, in a way I could not for a naked populist like Farage.
However, the market for libertarians seems to be: Douglas Carswell, Richard Tyndall and myself.
If presented in the right way I think there is a huge market for Libertarians. Will they ever form the majority in the country? Probably not. But there are many people who like the basic idea of smaller targeted government that keeps its nose out of most people's business and that spends a lot less of the GDP than modern Western governments.
I also think that actually those Libertarian aims are inevitably going to be satisfied to some extent given that we are seeing the combined effects of social liberalisation and also the growing realisation that the Western system of social care is unsustainable in its current form.
Note from the people FPT that the UKIP crowd's screams that Farage was uninvolved with the 2010 GE manifesto because he was not leader is slightly disingenuous.
Farage co-wrote the forward to the manifesto, and put his name to it. Does he always put his name to things he does not read? Given the van incident last night, perhaps not.
" Invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham"
So they wanted three HS2's, not one.
Good lord
I didn't say he was uninvolved, just corrected someone who said he was leader at the last GE
Also @flightpath I didn't bring colour into it, @foxinsox said Carswell would lose WWC support for ukip and I said there were a lot of WWC in Clacton where he is a very popular MP
The van incident... Ukip shuttled people from the North to clacton in a Ukip North East van... I don't see how this is a story unless you genuinely thought they had spray painted ukip North East onto it thin king clacton was in South Shields
Its pointless trying to use facts or logic with people like JJ or Flightpath. They are simply blind Tory supporters whose critical faculties evaporate when it comes to UKIP.
'Facts' have no place in their arguments as they are fed entirely by their idiotic belief that anything other than a perpetual Tory government - in Flightpath's case a puppet Tory government directed by the All-Father in Brussels - must mean the end of civilisation as we know it.
Utterly pathetic, and beneath you, Mr Tyndall. Gpo and find one place where I've given a factual inaccuracy. Go on.
Note from the people FPT that the UKIP crowd's screams that Farage was uninvolved with the 2010 GE manifesto because he was not leader is slightly disingenuous.
Farage co-wrote the forward to the manifesto, and put his name to it. Does he always put his name to things he does not read? Given the van incident last night, perhaps not.
" Invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham"
So they wanted three HS2's, not one.
Good lord
I didn't say he was uninvolved, just corrected someone who said he was leader at the last GE
Also @flightpath I didn't bring colour into it, @foxinsox said Carswell would lose WWC support for ukip and I said there were a lot of WWC in Clacton where he is a very popular MP
The van incident... Ukip shuttled people from the North to clacton in a Ukip North East van... I don't see how this is a story unless you genuinely thought they had spray painted ukip North East onto it thin king clacton was in South Shields
It shows a contempt for the electorate of Clacton.
@Nick Palmer I wouldn't read too much into the negative personal figures for Miliband and Cameron. They are the "Union" and those ratings are probably people who are less than enthusiastic about the Union expressing their dissatisfaction another way. The problem for those of us who support the Union is Johan Lamont's poor rating. Labour, which on ideological grounds should be the default party in power in Scotland, hasn't taken the country and its different politics seriously after coming to power in 1997. If it does go NO, I do hope that will change for their benefit and the rest of us. As an example they may need to think about All Women shortlist style Scotland First policies: eg no Scot is allowed to become a Labour MP or minister unless she has served at same level in Holyrood first.
@Financier I would say the independence campaign, at least within the swing votership is a protest vote, not an expression of a positive future. Mr Salmond and his campiagn are very clever in positioning themselves as anti-Establishment (all those references to Westminster), when it should be obvious that they ARE the Establishment in Scotland.
@MalcomG and others The YES campaign is long on rhetoric. Sticking posters in windows is part of that rhetoric, along with the claim that YES is a grassroots campaign, unlike the opposition. I think the claim by the other side that No windows are more likely to be smashed is actually a rationalisation. If you are a NO you are likely to be the kind of person that doesn't like to wear your heart on your sleeve. There have been more No Thanks posters after the YouGov scare, but still a minority.
@DavidL and others. Agreed. Too close to call. This poll is MOE in a situation where pollsters are flying blind. If we were back to 43% YES it would be different.
I’m beginning to wonder if a narrow NO vote won’t cause more problems than a YES. If the Westminster parties don’t honour their promises, and we’ve discussed here whether the promised timetable is achievable, then the SNP will be able to campaign in May on an “honesty” ticket. Further, one can assume, I think that Eck will resign at some point in the reasonably near future and I would expect Nicola Sturgeon to both succeed hime, and be a more politically, as well as physically (!) attractive leader. This will result in us going through all this again, probably around the time of the next GE in 2020.
Simply put Labour need a total rethink and probably for a resurgent right to reclaim its votes from the SNP's unsustainable coalition.
Alan, We will be independent by then and Labour will self implode. Ironically , if they take the chance , the biggest beneficiaries could be the Tories assuming they clear out the dead wood.
OKC, I am afraid your voodoo poll of a couple of family members does not cut it. In real life in Scotland it is just a little different. Just yesterday the BBC had to as YES teenagers to pretend to be undecided as they could not get enough NO supporters. Everywhere you go in Scotland you see YES , one exception is in fields. The fields are for NO the towns are for YES, I will leave you to guess where the voters live.
Malcolm I was a Liberal Party activist for many years. Posters do not equal votes. Not even in windows!
OKC, I well appreciate that but I repeat, it is hard to find anyone here will will admit to being NO, yet you will get shed loads for YES. Look on social media , NO sites are non existent or deserts, whilst hundreds of YES sites. Meetings , loads every day organised by YES, NO meetings are non existent or closed to the public. It if is to be NO they must have some well hidden SHY voters.
You're right. I don't know we bother even having a ballot. We should just count up the posters in the streets and on the internet. It would save a lot of money.
A sensible post from you for once, I doubt it will happen again.
Jehovah (GOD) led the Israelites (out of Egypt) into Canaan - the promised land - the land flowing with milk and honey (see the Book of Exodus etc). In fact he gave them a credible vision, even though they had to undergo many trials and tribulations along the way, including tests of faith and temptations, and their leader (Moses) died during that long journey.
It would appear that the SNP has not given the Scottish people a credible vision of where they will finish and how they would get to that destination. The SNP has leaders with great hope and ideals but not visionaries who with forethought and certainty can map out that journey leading to their promised land and describe that land with some accuracy.
As many people prefer to hold on to a currently comfortable and secure life (£ in your pocket), without a more credible vision the SNP may struggle to cross the winning line first.
Lunatic who would not be able to find Scotland on a map writes gibberish about Scotland.
This is quite a factoid - that doesn't bode well post-Indy. Businesses don't grow on trees. And lots of the biggies are packing their bags.
The Office for National Statistics’ Business Population Estimates reveal that Scotland had just 740 private businesses per 10,000 adults in early 2013, against 753 in Wales, 785 in Northern Ireland and 984 in England.
and Golly
The result is that Scotland relies to a remarkable degree on employers based outside its borders for jobs. The figures are shocking: companies based in the rest of the UK or overseas account for 3.1pc of Scottish firms, 35.2pc of employment and 58.1pc of total turnover, according to Business for Scotland. When one looks at the largest firms in isolation, one discovers that 82.4pc of corporate giants, 63.6pc of jobs and 78.1pc of turnover is ultimately controlled outside Scotland.
@Nick Palmer I wouldn't read too much into the negative personal figures for Miliband and Cameron. They are the "Union" and those ratings are probably people who are less than enthusiastic about the Union expressing their dissatisfaction another way. The problem for those of us who support the Union is Johan Lamont's poor rating. Labour, which on ideological grounds should be the default party in power in Scotland, hasn't taken the country and its different politics seriously after coming to power in 1997. If it does go NO, I do hope that will change for their benefit and the rest of us. As an example they may need to think about All Women shortlist style Scotland First policies: eg no Scot is allowed to become a Labour MP or minister unless she has served at same level in Holyrood first.
@Financier I would say the independence campaign, at least within the swing votership is a protest vote, not an expression of a positive future. Mr Salmond and his campiagn are very clever in positioning themselves as anti-Establishment (all those references to Westminster), when it should be obvious that they ARE the Establishment in Scotland.
@MalcomG and others The YES campaign is long on rhetoric. Sticking posters in windows is part of that rhetoric, along with the claim that YES is a grassroots campaign, unlike the opposition. I think the claim by the other side that No windows are more likely to be smashed is actually a rationalisation. If you are a NO you are likely to be the kind of person that doesn't like to wear your heart on your sleeve. There have been more No Thanks posters after the YouGov scare, but still a minority.
@DavidL and others. Agreed. Too close to call. This poll is MOE in a situation where pollsters are flying blind. If we were back to 43% YES it would be different.
You are almost right , NO are the no hopers , no vision , no change I am scared people. YES are people who have hope, want change and have vision. Empty glass versus half full glass. I am happy to be YES and I pity the scared people who have no hope , no courage and no vision.
I don't want to see the UK end, but I'd rather lose Scotland than England.
Mr. Owl, you're quite right.
Mr. Verulamius, don't be daft. A Yorkshire Parliament (and others) would institutionalise intra-English division and discord. Did the Scottish Parliament 'kill nationalism stone dead', or did it lead to the very realistic prospect of Scotland leaving altogether?
I quite agree, I'm something of a libertarian myself. Unfortunately a wholly libertarian party will not get elected in this country (UK). People are too addicted to the teat of benefits and after 69 years of being told that the country (government) will look after you from cradle to grave, it is going to be a mighty battle to turn things around. The thing that is going for UKIP, at the moment, is that people are at last beginning, and only beginning, to see what a mess the established parties have made of the UK: with a notion also, that we as a nation are lying defenceless against a massive muslim threat and anything else that may harm us.
@Nick Palmer I wouldn't read too much into the negative personal figures for Miliband and Cameron. They are the "Union" and those ratings are probably people who are less than enthusiastic about the Union expressing their dissatisfaction another way. The problem for those of us who support the Union is Johan Lamont's poor rating. Labour, which on ideological grounds should be the default party in power in Scotland, hasn't taken the country and its different politics seriously after coming to power in 1997. If it does go NO, I do hope that will change for their benefit and the rest of us. As an example they may need to think about All Women shortlist style Scotland First policies: eg no Scot is allowed to become a Labour MP or minister unless she has served at same level in Holyrood first.
@Financier I would say the independence campaign, at least within the swing votership is a protest vote, not an expression of a positive future. Mr Salmond and his campiagn are very clever in positioning themselves as anti-Establishment (all those references to Westminster), when it should be obvious that they ARE the Establishment in Scotland.
@MalcomG and others The YES campaign is long on rhetoric. Sticking posters in windows is part of that rhetoric, along with the claim that YES is a grassroots campaign, unlike the opposition. I think the claim by the other side that No windows are more likely to be smashed is actually a rationalisation. If you are a NO you are likely to be the kind of person that doesn't like to wear your heart on your sleeve. There have been more No Thanks posters after the YouGov scare, but still a minority.
@DavidL and others. Agreed. Too close to call. This poll is MOE in a situation where pollsters are flying blind. If we were back to 43% YES it would be different.
You are almost right , NO are the no hopers , no vision , no change I am scared people. YES are people who have hope, want change and have vision. Empty glass versus half full glass. I am happy to be YES and I pity the scared people who have no hope , no courage and no vision.
Just change the referendum question to:
"Should Scotland remain in the Uk rather than becoming independent?"
Then all the positive YES answers you like will be in favour of the Union.
Apparently there is slight bias in favour of people voting YES in answer to referendum questions. So the decision about the form of the question is not trivial.
Comments
I also think that actually those Libertarian aims are inevitably going to be satisfied to some extent given that we are seeing the combined effects of social liberalisation and also the growing realisation that the Western system of social care is unsustainable in its current form.
And I am not a Tory (tm).
I wouldn't read too much into the negative personal figures for Miliband and Cameron. They are the "Union" and those ratings are probably people who are less than enthusiastic about the Union expressing their dissatisfaction another way. The problem for those of us who support the Union is Johan Lamont's poor rating. Labour, which on ideological grounds should be the default party in power in Scotland, hasn't taken the country and its different politics seriously after coming to power in 1997. If it does go NO, I do hope that will change for their benefit and the rest of us. As an example they may need to think about All Women shortlist style Scotland First policies: eg no Scot is allowed to become a Labour MP or minister unless she has served at same level in Holyrood first.
@Financier
I would say the independence campaign, at least within the swing votership is a protest vote, not an expression of a positive future. Mr Salmond and his campiagn are very clever in positioning themselves as anti-Establishment (all those references to Westminster), when it should be obvious that they ARE the Establishment in Scotland.
@MalcomG and others
The YES campaign is long on rhetoric. Sticking posters in windows is part of that rhetoric, along with the claim that YES is a grassroots campaign, unlike the opposition. I think the claim by the other side that No windows are more likely to be smashed is actually a rationalisation. If you are a NO you are likely to be the kind of person that doesn't like to wear your heart on your sleeve. There have been more No Thanks posters after the YouGov scare, but still a minority.
@DavidL and others.
Agreed. Too close to call. This poll is MOE in a situation where pollsters are flying blind. If we were back to 43% YES it would be different.
You are almost as stupid as Financier, another zoony JSA nutjob who could not point to Scotland on a map , pontificates and claims to be an expert.
Empty glass versus half full glass.
I am happy to be YES and I pity the scared people who have no hope , no courage and no vision.
I don't want to see the UK end, but I'd rather lose Scotland than England.
Mr. Owl, you're quite right.
Mr. Verulamius, don't be daft. A Yorkshire Parliament (and others) would institutionalise intra-English division and discord. Did the Scottish Parliament 'kill nationalism stone dead', or did it lead to the very realistic prospect of Scotland leaving altogether?
I quite agree, I'm something of a libertarian myself. Unfortunately a wholly libertarian party will not get elected in this country (UK). People are too addicted to the teat of benefits and after 69 years of being told that the country (government) will look after you from cradle to grave, it is going to be a mighty battle to turn things around. The thing that is going for UKIP, at the moment, is that people are at last beginning, and only beginning, to see what a mess the established parties have made of the UK: with a notion also, that we as a nation are lying defenceless against a massive muslim threat and anything else that may harm us.
VillanUK @villanUK71 19m
@libertyIAB @DavidJo52951945 @Nigel_Farage He never hides his opinion,dosnt sit on the fence, you know his policies. Cant be said for others
Farage is on LBC this morning.
Just change the referendum question to:
"Should Scotland remain in the Uk rather than becoming independent?"
Then all the positive YES answers you like will be in favour of the Union.
Apparently there is slight bias in favour of people voting YES in answer to referendum questions. So the decision about the form of the question is not trivial.