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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : September 11th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : September 11th 2014
Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 29, Conservatives 19, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 2 (Labour majority of 6)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Labour 539 (42%), Liberal Democrats 438 (34%), Greens 135 (10%), TUSC 90 (7%), BNP 84 (7%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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UKIP will win Heywood & Middleton;
UKIP will come 3rd in Clacton;
UKIP will win seats in 2015 with no coastline, but none on the coast;
Conservative Party will win the general election in 2015 with an absolute majority of seats;
Labour Party will get an absolute majority of the votes in 2015;
Nicola Sturgeon will turn into a pelican on 19th September.
A Yes win means the return of the Blairites
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4204106.ece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=11091156&cc=11069143
Note from the people FPT that the UKIP crowd's screams that Farage was uninvolved with the 2010 GE manifesto because he was not leader is slightly disingenuous.
Farage co-wrote the forward to the manifesto, and put his name to it. Does he always put his name to things he does not read? Given the van incident last night, perhaps not.
For people who want a laugh:
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/man/parties/UKIPManifesto2010.pdf
I particularly liked this bit:
" Invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines including a new line between London
and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route
via Birmingham"
So they wanted three HS2's, not one.
http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/09/11/blairjenkinsyes-how-would-an-independent-scotland-succeed-indyref/
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/510066169265786881/photo/1
This will result in us going through all this again, probably around the time of the next GE in 2020.
Simply put Labour need a total rethink and probably for a resurgent right to reclaim its votes from the SNP's unsustainable coalition.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lqdng2lvn0/Final_Scotland_Sun_Times_140911_Website.pdf
My prediction is she turns into a buttrrfly.
In other news, a technical assessment of Miliband's utility in the Indy campaign.
'Ed Miliband Useful As A 'Boil On The Scrotum,' Says Radio Caller
http://tinyurl.com/m5lcrh2
You could be right though, in that Labour in Scotland will split. I suspect Alanbrooke is right too, when the says the SNP’s coalition is, in thge long term unsustainable. Most Nationalist parties are, as are all fundamentally one-issue campaign groups, once the primne objective has been achieved.
Just one aspect of the backlash to come.
No longer will the Celtic tail wag the English dog.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100028096/standard-life-rbs-lloyds-and-others-show-just-how-real-the-impacts-of-scottish-independence-would-be/
Key points are:
The SNP can rail at the alleged wickedness of its opponents all it likes, but that will not change certain simple truths. And those simple truths include these:
There will be no currency union with the remainder of the UK
An independent Scotland will not automatically be a member of the EU
An independent Scotland that does not have a central bank, but instead uses the pound sterling without a currency union, will be forbidden by EU rules from joining the EU
An independent Scotland that does not have a central bank, but instead uses the pound sterling without a currency union, will see the departure of almost all its current banks
An independent Scotland that reneges on its share of UK debt will not be welcome to join the EU
An independent Scotland that joins the EU will be obliged to commit to joining the euro and making efforts in good faith to do so at the earliest convenient opportunity
An independent Scotland that joins the EU will not have the UK rebate, but will instead (if the rest of the UK remains in the EU) have to pay to fund the rebate for the rest of the UK
I'm now pretty sure myself it will be a NO. Eck's lies and bluster about the the absolute core issue have gone too far and the world and his wife are now forcefully pointing out that it would not be freedom and jam but freedom and vinegar. And when the heart of your story is brutally exposed as a self serving lie -well where does Eck go from here? Has no answers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11091064/Alex-Salmond-is-chasing-away-the-private-sector-firms-he-so-desperately-needs.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11091064/Alex-Salmond-is-chasing-away-the-private-sector-firms-he-so-desperately-needs.html
I must say the DT columnists are really really good these days. Incl one our own - ahem!
Couldn't be naked self-interest getting in the way, could it?
Labour will not split if Scotland remains in the UK. In an independent Scotland, frankly, anything's possible but institutional inertia is a powerful thing. What keeps Fine Gail and Fianna Fail together apart from each other? It's true that independence would cause tensions in the SNP as to 'where next' but I've little doubt that they'd find a place on the spectrum where their activists and supporters were comfortable, perhaps replacing the Lib Dems in the centre as they're the weakest of the current three UK parties in Scotland, and the centre / centre-left would be an easy place for the SNP to slot into.
EVFEL has a lot of implications, but is the counterpart to any further discussion of devolution.
I think No will win and open a whole can of worms. In many ways I would like to see Yes win.
After all, it's Scotland's oil. When it isn't Shetland's. Or Ailsa Craig's. Well it's someone's oil, dammit...
Welcome to the club Malc.
I feel a little sorry for decent UKIP supporters such as yourself. You really don't seem to understand why vociferous UKIP supporters spouting terms like "indigenous peoples" turns off large swathes of the electorate.
Especially when they do not have the guts to say what they actually mean.
Don't get me wrong. I like posting about the economic absurdities of YES. I'm pointing out that YES means freedom and vinegar (by the bucketful). But I'm not advocating a NO. Actually, as an Englishman, I feel very very pissed off that Scotland gets a better political and financial arrangement. I want my kids to qualify for free uni and resent my taxes making this possible in Scotland. I resent my taxes enabling free prescriptions for Scotland. I want equal public spending for England. I want EVFEL. I want a federal UK. The pandering to Scotland must stop. Be a full and equal part of the UK or eff off. If the Scots choose to 'eff off then thanks very much' - I'm OK with that. Go - I wish you well.
Well worth a read for anyone who hasn't done so.
However, the distribution of snake oil is not confined to one side and I am getting the feeling that “it’ll be alright on the night” doesn’t always cut it.
I’m somewhat sad about it, too. If I were resident in Scotland my preference would be for Yes.
The argument that will have done for Scotland is the same one that did for Quebec. Could an independent Quebec use the Candian dollar?
So isn't the country with a very serious problem now Spain.
Because, that argument won't apply in Catalonia? It already has the euro.
Incidentally, the example of the successive Free Churches reminds me. What happens to the money of the SCUP on indy? Does it go over the border or is it retained to act as a nucleus for a rebranded party? Or might the new right/free enterprise grouping need to start completely anew?
That said, something has now begun that cannot be reversed. major change is coming. I believe it will be kick-started by Scotland's cessation, but if I am wrong it will be because Scotland cannot have Devo-max without similar devolution of powers in other parts of the UK: there has to be a balance. So we will see more powers for Wales and NI, and we will see either an English Parliament or English votes on English laws. I would also expect a change to the voting system.
It is hard to overstate what historically significant times we are living through for this country.
It looked exactly like that to me.
The sovereignty of a people rests with them. What has been approved in a referendum (the Spanish constitution) can be reversed in a referendum.
A law passed in Madrid saying Spain cannot be divided is just not worth the paper it is written on.
But I thought his piece was pretty good. Though indyref can sometimes seem like James Hutton's view of the Earth: "No vestige of a beginning, no prospect of an end".
Edit: which is the recherché connection to the three parties' presser at Dynamic Earth, below Hutton's classic site at Salisbury Crags, earlier this week.
My suspicion is that Labour in particular have been very anxious about the tax raising powers. If, or more accurately when, we also have EVEL they will have a major problem in getting a budget. We are at risk of having an absurd situation where a party has an overall majority in the Commons but no ability at all to govern 90% of the population.
At the moment I really don't trust the polls. Most Scottish polling has been from companies with very poor track records or who have made an arse of themselves. We will hopefully get a better idea today from ICM but the likelihood is that this is going to be TCTC with considerations such as differential turnout capable of swinging the vote one way or another. Those that bet on higher levels of turnout should be grateful for all this angst!
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/rbs-says-relocation-is-scare-story-and-true-story-2014091190446
Will Caesar have a RUK dog on their tins instead? No doubt Kippers will worry about a EuroMutt taking over.
I Think We Should Be Told.
It would appear that the SNP has not given the Scottish people a credible vision of where they will finish and how they would get to that destination. The SNP has leaders with great hope and ideals but not visionaries who with forethought and certainty can map out that journey leading to their promised land and describe that land with some accuracy.
As many people prefer to hold on to a currently comfortable and secure life (£ in your pocket), without a more credible vision the SNP may struggle to cross the winning line first.
* Certainty to vote (10/10) is virtually identical for Y/N (at 90-91). Just 4% say they don't know how they'll vote.
* There is a bigger swing on "Scotland would be better/worse off" (from -2 to -11) than for the VI (+2 to -5).
* More people have heard from or seen something about the Yes campaign (e.g. leaflets, posters) than No. Amazingly, 24% say they've heard and seen NOTHING from No, and 17% say they've heard and seen NOTHING from Yes. "You mean there's a referendum campaign in progress?" All political professionals are familiar with this phenomenon ("I've not heard from you for years." "But I delivered a leaflet to you only last month!" "Huh. Haven't seen it.").
* There is deep scepticism about all the politicians. Salmond is net -20, Sturgeon -15, Brown -23, Darling -31, Cameron -46, Miliband -45, Lamont -31, Rennie -35, Davidson -31. The SNP leaders are down 9, Brown up a net 3 (and +26 among No supporters, +41 among Lab supporters), everyone else MOE changes.
* The dominant argument for Yes is "Scotland will not have to implement policies made in London that Scots reject" with 48% - the poll tax issue still resonating? There is no one No argument that dominates - 30-odd% for various financial arguments.
* Holyrood VI is SNP 34, Lab 33, Con 14, Green 8 (!), everyone else 4 or less (regional votes).
I'd think from these figures that the trip by the 3 party leaders won't have don't much good, and that the SNP leaders still have an edge personally which is holding off the negative undertow of the "worse off" figures. The figures look pretty settled to me.
I didn't say he was uninvolved, just corrected someone who said he was leader at the last GE
Also @flightpath I didn't bring colour into it, @foxinsox said Carswell would lose WWC support for ukip and I said there were a lot of WWC in Clacton where he is a very popular MP
The van incident... Ukip shuttled people from the North to clacton in a Ukip North East van... I don't see how this is a story unless you genuinely thought they had spray painted ukip North East onto it thin king clacton was in South Shields
(sorry I had to)
Incidently still no interest from The Birmingham Office Girls. Pistorius yesterday but still not one comment or reference to the referendum. Not one. Ever. They simply do not care.
Of course the big NO benefit is that we might finally get the WLQ sorted out, and EV4EL or some form of devolution for England.
OKC, I am afraid your voodoo poll of a couple of family members does not cut it. In real life in Scotland it is just a little different. Just yesterday the BBC had to as YES teenagers to pretend to be undecided as they could not get enough NO supporters. Everywhere you go in Scotland you see YES , one exception is in fields. The fields are for NO the towns are for YES, I will leave you to guess where the voters live.
Malcolm I was a Liberal Party activist for many years. Posters do not equal votes. Not even in windows!
OKC, I well appreciate that but I repeat, it is hard to find anyone here will will admit to being NO, yet you will get shed loads for YES. Look on social media , NO sites are non existent or deserts, whilst hundreds of YES sites. Meetings , loads every day organised by YES, NO meetings are non existent or closed to the public. It if is to be NO they must have some well hidden SHY voters.
If Quebec is any guide,there are shy No voters,put off by the aggression of Yes and a lot of them,which is why I'm still happy with my increased wager on 40-45 for Yes.Swingback to No on the day could prove more reliable in the indyref than in GE2015.
I'm trying to think of a suitable EuroMutt - a Labradoodle doesn't cut the mustard. More of a Daschoodle perhaps?
I think he will win in Clacton, but will bring some hidden tensions in UKIP into the spotlight. It may welk be a pyrhic victory.
Pathetic weasel Clegg backs 'radical devolution for England', which amounts to mayors and shitty regional powers:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29155854
Give us a Parliament, you fool.
A great pen pix of the absurdity of this and the sly motives for it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11090312/Scottish-independence-Gordon-Brown-suggests-he-could-stand-for-Scottish-Parliament-to-counter-SNP-lies-on-NHS.html
'Facts' have no place in their arguments as they are fed entirely by their idiotic belief that anything other than a perpetual Tory government - in Flightpath's case a puppet Tory government directed by the All-Father in Brussels - must mean the end of civilisation as we know it.
Catalonia can always pass a UDI, but to amend the constitution of Spain requires a vote of the whole country.
It is worth noting that Catalonia is one of the richest parts of Spain, and therefore the loss of it would be very keenly felt by Spain as a whole. However, it's worth noting that the Basque Country next door has a much longer history of desiring statehood (and had an armed insurrection, of course).
My guess would be that we will see DevoMax on a Basque-scale for Catalonia, but we shall see.
Open primaries are an interesting idea, but maybe need a bit more thought.
However, the market for libertarians seems to be: Douglas Carswell, Richard Tyndall and myself.