Hunt continues to be next CON leader betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
Hunt continues to be next CON leader betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
The collapse of Sunak In the next CON leader betting has left open a new battleground between five top Tories who are rated by the betting markets as having the best chance of being the one who takes over from Johnson.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
In finance, defence, semi-conductors, energy and a number of other key sectors the EU is significantly or wholly reliant on an external party. With no way out, on the last check, the City has been gaining market share of financial services.
On defence Eastern Europe will never agree to a France/Germany led defence of the realm without US and UK involvement, in fact given everything happening in Ukraine I'm almost certain that Eastern European countries would leave the EU if EU and NATO membership became mutually exclusive.
On energy there still seems to be a real lack of acceptance that relying on Russian energy was a bad idea in Germany, loads of German officials are still waiting for this to all die down so they can quietly forget to reform their energy sector.
Finally on semi-conductors, it's the one area where Europe could potentially win back a lot of market share, Intel already has manufacturing in Ireland but at the same time, they're not domestic and Biden has, realistically, purchased all of Intel's investment capacity for the next 5-8 years for domestic production. The other major semi-conductor powers are in Asia and will be significantly less helpful to the EU than Intel. The lack of key domestic players is the issue, same as the UK. Both parties would essentially be building an industry from scratch, the US, Korea, Taiwan and Japan already have significant domestic industries and national champions like Intel, Samsung, TSMC and Sony who invest billions of dollars per year into semi-conductor development and manufacturing and dominate specific sectors.
This kind of rhetoric may win over blinkered EUphiles or those vanishingly few people who still like Macron but the reality is that both the UK and EU will struggle to achieve anything like strategic autonomy in very many key sectors. What the UK lacks in autonomy we make up for in speed and having a dynamic economy that is able to move with the times, just talking about my little sector of tech start up investing and consulting, nothing like this industry exists anywhere in the EU.
I think the UK has largely accepted that strategic autonomy is unlikely in a lot of sectors, it means we have to make sure our alliances count. Hence AUKUS, potentially pulling Japan into it, the new bridging security agreement for Sweden to join NATO etc... The EU seems to behave as if it were a benevolent superpower asking for favours but giving nothing in return. As I've said on many occasions, I'd start looking to tie UK-EU defence and intelligence cooperation to very long term mutual recognition in agricultural standards, financial services standards and customs pre-clearance of UK goods in key sectors and push these into the TCA and extend the TCA break period to 5 years rather than 12 months. No more freebies.
I have roundly condemned that article but giving the speaker this power is a step too far
All they have to do is come along, enjoy the glass of Sherry, and say “we got it wrong - no one respecting Freedom by respecting the responsibilities that come with Freedom should publish something like that.”
If you don’t understand the mistake you just made Big G I can paraphrase someone who once said “even Ant and Dec are ahead of the Prime Minister on this one” with “Even the Prime Minister is ahead of Big G on this one.”
He demanded a meeting with the editor to explain himself and inevitably the Mail has rejected the request, and as I said earlier even a Sky presenter was questioning what authority the speaker has to intervene
German prosperity really was built at the cost of European security.
The paper that gets furious on behalf of its readers about all sorts of trivia.
And now, it's the snarling resentment of a nasty schoolboy who has been caught out taking a teasing too far. "We can't have been bullying her, she laughed about it."
No one has stopped the Mail repeating its misogyny, there is no restraint on the papers free speech.
Being told off is not censorship, it is that free speech is not free of consequences.
The Speaker can only speak words himself, he cannot ban the paper or the story.
Why do you want to censor the Speaker?
@esaagar
Vijaya Gadde, the top censorship advocate at Twitter who famously gaslit the world on Joe Rogan's podcast and censored the Hunter Biden laptop story, is very upset about the @elonmusk takeover
@elonmusk
Replying to @esaagar
Suspending the Twitter account of a major news organization for publishing a truthful story was obviously incredibly inappropriate
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1519073003933515776
However, I am not wanting to take away from the disgust at the story and will leave it there
So right of Speaker to call to account, on behalf of the House of Commons, anyone before the the bar of the House (the only one without taps?) is well-established.
What happens after that is the real question.
Many, indeed most upholders of free speech will concur with your view, substantially if not totally.
Think I'm OK with having a pack of ink-splattered hooligans hauled up to public censure by the Mother of Parliaments.
Beyond that, not so much.
Fortunately, in contrast to the hopes of its authors, the backlash versus DM's erotic-misogynic log-flogging for fun & profit, is benefiting Angela Raynor in general, and her party in particular.
That is, she REALLY doesn't need this kind of help, she's doing fine on her own.
Whereas this is just another self-inflicted wound by the Putinist's currently running (and ruining) the Tory Party in general, and the prospects of Borish Johnson in particular.
Rather flattering to both Rayner and Javid, with the Jewish News plug giving an offbeat AND appealing twist.
The publicity here should do the Yorkshire Party the world of good. Would highlighting their candidate is Ex Tory member disillusioned by direction under Boris be a smart move for Yorkshire Party at this election or not?
The President of Ukraine is full of praise for him and the UK government, Ukraine have even named a street after him, and we get daily attacks from Putin and the Kremlin that we are the principal enemies of Russia in the west
You need to direct your ire to Germany who is the one buying Russian oil and gas and sustainaining his war machine
PLUS given a plug to
1. Yorkshire Party
2. David Herdson
3. Wakefield
4. Politicalbetting.com
5. Smarkets
And in fifty words or less!
Whereas political motive of DM is crystal clear - to aid Boris Johnson.
Personally think you and Boris are both grossly overplaying the Tribune of Free Ukraine angle. To point of vanishingly diminishing returns.
And it might be fact I’m 20 years younger, but I just think different hair styles than that look a lot smarter. Sixties bangs and fringes just stand out too much from the crowd in this day and age. I just can’t imagine looking in a mirror and seeing myself with a fringe like that - I’d go straight to my hair stuff box for the scissors and cut it off! Unless it’s for a fancy dress Party and I was going as Modesty Blaze or Noa Knight. Even Barbarella didn’t have bangs.
There's a fairly nasty sexy and sexist undercurrent in the Mail, "flaunting her curves" and whatnot. The only trouble on Sunday was they got caught crossing the line.
It is not just Boris but Ben Wallace and others who have been widely recognised to have performed well on Ukraine and downplaying the UK achievements only plays into Putin's hands
Making up BS isn't freedom of speech journalism it it the road to genuine Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson false reporting fake news which is not in the public interest, it is quite the contrary.
Rotting cabbage, digital breadlines and bossy drones
By Don Weinland"
https://www.economist.com/1843/2022/04/26/locked-down-in-shanghai-ive-caught-a-glimpse-of-our-techno-dystopian-future
Wallace is the man to watch
Far from being silly I nailed it yesterday Big G. When Wallace speaks on Ukraine and stands up to Putin’s evil horrible invasion, and Boris too, it’s what we all want to hear, none of us disagree with the speaking up or the arm shipments. That’s why it’s a boost. But anyone could have achieved this, there’s nothing Boris or Wallace done here other people I named wouldn’t have done just the same. Unless you care to detail it.
US have been the most generous, whilst considering how exposed they started this the EU have been great just as much as UK. The bravery and generosity of Polish government tops everyone on this, including UK.
Now for the differences. Starmer. hunt, May, Cameron Would all have appointed a far better Home Secretary so the help to refugees would have been better under them than under Boris. And hidden behind what your call nothing but success is overruling everybody to put a Putin apologist in the Lords! WTF! and backstory of being far too close to Oligarch money leading up to this war. , including seeking Kremlin money for Tory coffers the very night Putin attacked, as the papers revealed to us.
Regardless of whatever noises they may or may not make re: Ukraine.
Surely no PB poster supports this plan to use our Brexit Freedoms to cut tariffs and ease the cost of living crisis?
Just NOT enough to whitewash him. OR to prevent it being a good idea IMHO for the UK and Conservative Party to throw him out of the troika and, if not to the wolves, at least out of No. 10.
Incoming 'I'm sorry if the hon member for Bournemouth East feels I have called him a c**t..'
It would suddenly look like a government with a clueless trade deal strategy, clueless at negotiating and not fit to govern, wouldn’t it?
Who pointed us to this Absolutely rubbish article, was it Heathener?
Don’t Lib Dems exist?
It’s just Labour obsessed journalism trying to spin a average result as good for Labour.
“Most of the English seats up for election are urban (where Labour is strong) and were last contested before the Tories’ crushing victory in 2019. As a consequence there aren’t as many council seats for Labour to win back from the Conservatives as there would be if last year’s seats were up for election. “
So it’s impossible for Boris to have a bad night?
“If Labour were to hold these seats, I wouldn’t necessarily view that as evidence of a stagnant party but rather one doing much better than it did in 2021 and at the 2019 general election.
Yeah right. Just holding their own and not much happening over all is actually a good night for Labour, even though the media will call it a good night for Boris and Starmer not doing nearly well enough? “
I know what Big G will post “it’s shocking in context of this climate Labour and Starmer making no headway at all across all these elections!”
And this time Big G will be absolutely right. 👍🏻
There are a few chip fabrication plants in Europe - Bosch has three or four devoted to automotive semiconductors in Germany, STMicro has a couple in France (albeit devoted to analog-mixed signal), as well as one in the shadow of Mount Etna in Sicily. Altis also has one, and I think there are a couple of Texas Instruments ones. And while I don't know, I would bet there are a bunch of ex-Philips ones in the Netherlands. And I'm sure Infineon has a couple too.
The reality is - though - that no country is genuinely independent from a semi sourcing point of view: the US, Israel, Singapore and Ireland dominate CPUs. Taiwan dominates contract manufacturing. And South Korea and Japan have a bunch of specialist stuff.
On the other hand, all of these plants are utterly dependent on a small list of suppliers. So without ASM Lithography, there would be no semiconductor plants. It utterly dominates the high end of the market.
They don’t - he can say what he thinks but he can’t summon the editor for a dressing down
It' In 2019 Germany bought about $20bn of natural gas from Russia. If we pretend for a moment that they paid half the world market rate (which they didn't), then their benefit was... $20bn.
But of course, Germany didn't pay half the world market price. They paid market prices (as they did for their other source of piped gas, Norway) but benefited from lower shipping costs.
Now would Germany pay more for LNG gas? Yes. If Germany wanted to enter into long-term LNG supply contracts, it would have to pay significantly more (probably 40-50% more).
But here's the thing: it's not the German government entering into supply contracts, it's Germany utility companies. If one company orders LNG from Qatar at a fixed 15% discount to the oil price, then they will be paying more than one who ordered from Gazprom or Statoil.
But it certainly engineered an effective bailout of its own banks while wallowing in self-righteous indignation at the supposedly feckless Greeks who’d had the temerity to borrow from said banks.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-passport-office-delays-privatisation-threat-b996301.html
That will work because by the time the agencies are privatised, they will have cleared the Covid backlogs anyway.
Sometimes even Rees-Mogg gets things right
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-steve-jobs-would-agree-with-rees-mogg-on-working-from-home-tk8wxmlsf (£££)
Suitcases of Covid loan cash seized at UK’s borders
Recipients of pandemic support also spent the money on gambling sprees, home improvements and cars, a Times investigation finds
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suitcases-of-covid-loan-cash-seized-at-uks-borders-wcnnjd7r8 (£££)
Loophole allowed new businesses to get £100m in Covid loans
Dozens of companies were able to claim taxpayer-backed support after being set up during the pandemic, a Times investigation finds
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/loophole-allowed-new-businesses-to-get-100m-in-covid-loans-ghl9gknfw (£££)
It was about a massive, quick, spaff of money. Which is Boris Johnson all over. Slap it on the credit card and worry about how to pay it off another day.
Separate to that, the Select Committees can summon people.
Pace Elon Musk, we are NOT free to publish whatever we like. There are consequences, on a legal foot obviously, but also on an ethical and moral one.
Surely that was more insulting than the comments against Rayner? Or from now on, does Hoyle give cartoons an exemption, for reasons (e.g. satire)? Hoyle has put himself into the situation where he has to decide *when* the media has gone too far - and that's going to cause him a load of issues if he is not careful.
They’re looking for regulations that impose costs on everyday life, but can be fixed without costing the Treasury money. Many of them will be gold-plated EU regulations sent through Parliament on the nod, rather than debated properly at the time.
It’s exactly the sort of thing the government should be doing.
Though I can see why that might not appeal to Boris.