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Odds of 2/1 on a Johnson 2022 exit look value – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    No it isn't. I have a friend who is a Morris Dancer, nothing better than a May Day Morris Dance watched with beer and ploughmans in a country pub
    No white wine and salad with your morris dancing?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585

    The Tories are moving *further* to the right?! You‘ve already been hijacked by extremists, and now you are relaxed about them dragging the once great old party into truly despicable political territory. Shame on you.
    I genuinely find some of this style of post baffling. Extremists? In what way? Are they proposing death camps? Invading France? Or do they just hav3 a different vision of the country than yours? Is it the Brexit thing again? You get that it’s about trade right? We may have made a catastrophic error. Time will tell. But that doesn’t make people extremist.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    Can Labour remove the Tories from office without the Midlands? Yes, if the Tories get thrashed in the North and London, and lose seats in the South to Labour and the Lib Dems.
    But it pretty much rules out Labour getting more than 300 seats unless there's some incredibly significant recovery in Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited April 2022

    The Tories are moving *further* to the right?! You‘ve already been hijacked by extremists, and now you are relaxed about them dragging the once great old party into truly despicable political territory. Shame on you.
    Hardly, Boris is still left of Thatcher, IDS, Howard, Home, Salisbury, Bonar Law and plenty of other former Tory leaders not just the extreme right
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Feels like Le Pen has overcorrected from 2017 and seems a bit toothless tonight. Not really gone after Macron hard enough. She’s doing better overall but it’s not a game changer. Macron on the other hand started well, and tackling her much more forcefully, but as the debate goes on has fallen into irritating sniping and constant interruptions. It’s gone from confident to arrogant to petty.
  • I went for a snouts in the trough red - or black as it is here!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Someone needs to do some public polling of the Midlands and find out exactly why it's so out of kilter with the rest of the country. Unlike the North (where Labour are miles ahead), it seems the Brexit voters seem to be sticking with the Tories.
    Agreed. We need some proper, full-scale polling of the Midlands. And the South West.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585

    The really friggin stupid thing is for Tory MPs - and I keep repeating this fact - is that THERE ARE MORE FINES COMING. This doesn’t end after the first one. Idiots

    It does seem odd. I’ve wondered if Johnson thinks he isn’t getting any more and that’s why he has done what he’s done. Sadly it’s more likely he is just going from day to day, saying whatever he can to survive.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423


    Sam Coates Sky
    @SamCoatesSky
    ·
    53m
    So why might this amendment have bought off some Tory rebels?

    Because it appears rebels have been told that when *finally* there is a vote on referring Boris Johnson to the privileges committee, this will be a free vote

    So the rebels think the probe WILL happen - eventually

    ====

    Wow. People really will grasp at anything to avoid facing a difficult choice, won't they?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,479

    Someone needs to do some public polling of the Midlands and find out exactly why it's so out of kilter with the rest of the country. Unlike the North (where Labour are miles ahead), it seems the Brexit voters seem to be sticking with the Tories.
    There's a lot of rural counties in the Midlands, much more than in the North, so the tory vote is bound to be higher.
    I'm sure the Borough seats will be close.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,305

    The really friggin stupid thing is for Tory MPs - and I keep repeating this fact - is that THERE ARE MORE FINES COMING. This doesn’t end after the first one. Idiots

    But to admit that now is to admit defeat, and that they really cocked up by letting Boris into No 10, 2019 triumph or no 2019 triumph.

    Stagger on until tomorrow, and anything might happen. A compromising photo of Starmer on the front page of The Sun. War with France.

    It's likely that every day of gravity defiance will just make the crash more painful when it happens, but whilst there is a 1 % chance of a miracle, anything can happen at backgammon.

    More importantly, they're mostly too scared of Big Dog to try to remove him. Much pleasanter if someone else does the dirty work.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I went for a snouts in the trough red - or black as it is here!

    What a boar!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    Good to be back - I've really missed it. Speedy recovery to Mike!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,855
    Very dull debate between Le Pen and Macron, unlike last time, which was electric. Le Pen doing a Brexiteer tribute act, which was dire in the original and exhausts all life the second time round (Global France apparently). Macron doing his teacher thing. Like them he's right most of the time but it doesn't enthuse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418
    kle4 said:

    Wow. People really will grasp at anything to avoid facing a difficult choice, won't they?
    Well, Tory MPs will at any rate.

    Desperate stuff.

    Pathetic doesn't even cover the half of it.

  • What a boar!
    Awesome pun speed!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831

    Can Labour remove the Tories from office without the Midlands? Yes, if the Tories get thrashed in the North and London, and lose seats in the South to Labour and the Lib Dems.
    But it pretty much rules out Labour getting more than 300 seats unless there's some incredibly significant recovery in Scotland.

    The Midlands and (and parts of the) north will stay with Boris.

    Keith will have all sorts of problems with the "what is a woman" question and variations of it in a general election campaign...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I can't see Starmer winning unless he can turn those Mids numbers around a bit more frankly.

    These’ll perk him up:

    10/10 Absolutely certain to vote:

    Scotland 60%
    London 58%
    Rest of South 55%
    North 54%
    Midlands and Wales 50%

    Remain 67%
    Leave 59%

    Women 56%
    Men 53%

    YG 13-15 April
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    rcs1000 said:

    What's creepy about some good manly nude lake bathing?

    A little too Putinesque me thinks ..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418

    It does seem odd. I’ve wondered if Johnson thinks he isn’t getting any more and that’s why he has done what he’s done. Sadly it’s more likely he is just going from day to day, saying whatever he can to survive.
    That is his main way of operating.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    Can Labour remove the Tories from office without the Midlands? Yes, if the Tories get thrashed in the North and London, and lose seats in the South to Labour and the Lib Dems.
    But it pretty much rules out Labour getting more than 300 seats unless there's some incredibly significant recovery in Scotland.

    Indeed, Blair and New Labour won the Midlands and Scotland comfortably in 1997.

    Starmer it seems has zero chance of winning either, so while he can still become PM with SNP and/or LD support he is unlikely to win a majority let alone a 1997 style landslide
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022

    Awesome pun speed!
    Snort! Snort!

    Addendum - love the hat and shirt.

    Personally too roly-poly for bib overalls, but they look good on the swine!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    I wish headline writers could come up with more creative descriptions for things.

    'French rivals for presidency clash in TV debate' it says, as if a 'clash' was not inevitable. IDK, at least mix it up. Spar at debate, or wrangle, something, anything.

    I'd say the terminology was inevitable as the phony clashes at boxing events, but today's story on boxing has 'Fury and Whyte share respect at media conference', and I was so shocked I fell out of my chair.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    But to admit that now is to admit defeat, and that they really cocked up by letting Boris into No 10, 2019 triumph or no 2019 triumph.

    Stagger on until tomorrow, and anything might happen. A compromising photo of Starmer on the front page of The Sun. War with France.

    It's likely that every day of gravity defiance will just make the crash more painful when it happens, but whilst there is a 1 % chance of a miracle, anything can happen at backgammon.

    More importantly, they're mostly too scared of Big Dog to try to remove him. Much pleasanter if someone else does the dirty work.
    If that “someone else” turns out to be the electorate, they’ll regret their lack of vertebrae.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    HYUFD said:

    Engaged couples can be married in any Church of England church if they meet just one of these criteria, which include residence:

    one of them was baptised or prepared for confirmation in the parish;
    one of them has ever lived in the parish for six months or more;
    one of them has at any time regularly attended public worship in the parish for six months or more;
    one of their parents has lived in the parish for six months or more in their child's lifetime;
    one of their parents has regularly attended public worship there for six months or more in their child's lifetime;
    their parents or grandparents were married in the parish.

    Virtually nobody ever objects to weddings under Marriage Banns now
    Not if they are of the same sex they can't. Nor if they are divorced.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    JACK_W said:

    A little too Putinesque me thinks ..
    Jack W????? Gosh! You're still alive then???

    What age are you now? 150? :open_mouth:
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182

    Birmingham was ground zero for protectionism in days of Joe Chamberlain.

    Are industries in Midlands less trade dependent, or more challenged by Euro competition, or other current economic factors, differential to the rest of the UK?
    It used to make stuff, and perhaps thinks that Brexit means it will make stuff again.

    It would interesting to understand how the Midlands has tended to vote over the years; my feeling is that its more lower middle class in its character, compared with working class north and a bourgeois south.

    Neither does it have the non-denominational legacy of the West Country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited April 2022

    It used to make stuff, and perhaps thinks that Brexit means it will make stuff again.

    It would interesting to understand how the Midlands has tended to vote over the years; my feeling is that its more lower middle class in its character, compared with working class north and a bourgeois south.

    Neither does it have the non-denominational legacy of the West Country.
    And under Johnson the Tory core vote is now the lower middle class and pensioners, not the rich bourgeois upper middle class it was under Cameron and Major
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252
    HYUFD said:

    No it isn't. I have a friend who is a Morris Dancer, nothing better than a May Day Morris Dance watched with beer and ploughmans in a country pub
    You've clearly never snorted cocaine off the naked body of a nineteen year old hooker in Bangkok.

    For the record, I haven't either, but @eadric was very clear that that is the ultimate experience.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Apology accepted

    I want him gone as much as anyone

    He is damaging the conservative party, the integrity of politicians, and the country's discourse

    If his mps will not wield their power, than the electorate will do in 24
    I had meant to write “PB threads are impossibly long these days”, but “PB threads are impossibly wrong these days” must be one of the most apt auto-correct errors I’ve ever witnessed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,396
    edited April 2022
    'How do you defend a law breaking liar'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEU4CHBJwkU
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    rcs1000 said:

    You've clearly never snorted cocaine off the naked body of a nineteen year old hooker in Bangkok.

    For the record, I haven't either,
    Oh yeah... ? ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423

    Morris Dancing is the absolute worst.
    With or without blackface?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585
    rcs1000 said:

    You've clearly never snorted cocaine off the naked body of a nineteen year old hooker in Bangkok.

    For the record, I haven't either, but @eadric was very clear that that is the ultimate experience.
    I miss @eadric. Only person in real life called eardrum I’ve known was a character at the York dungeons. Poorly written, under developed characterisation, but the guy at York was good...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    TOPPING said:

    Not if they are of the same sex they can't. Nor if they are divorced.
    Yes but most of those who are getting married will be mixed sex (albeit I expect in time same sex blessings will be allowed in C of E churches if the vicar is willing).

    Divorcees already can get married in Church of England churches if the priest agrees
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kle4 said:

    I wish headline writers could come up with more creative descriptions for things.

    'French rivals for presidency clash in TV debate' it says, as if a 'clash' was not inevitable. IDK, at least mix it up. Spar at debate, or wrangle, something, anything.

    I'd say the terminology was inevitable as the phony clashes at boxing events, but today's story on boxing has 'Fury and Whyte share respect at media conference', and I was so shocked I fell out of my chair.

    I actually watched the boxing press conference expecting the usual staged trash talk and petty violence. Like you, I was completely amazed to see what was more akin to the opening handshakes at a public school debating club.

    Very, very odd.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    JACK_W said:

    Your confusing my age with the number of lockdown parties in Downing Street .. :sunglasses:
    Man, you're on fire! Or is it, you're on fire water?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    JACK_W said:

    Your confusing my age with the number of lockdown parties in Downing Street .. :sunglasses:
    LOL! :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418
    GIN1138 said:

    The Midlands and (and parts of the) north will stay with Boris.

    Keith will have all sorts of problems with the "what is a woman" question and variations of it in a general election campaign...
    I don't think he will.

    The way things are looking the next GE will be a titanic contest over the economy as we face economic crisis.

    The political class just has not got its head around how bad things are getting and will get in next couple of years.

    If Tories think they can win on women's toilets while millions struggle to heat homes and send their kids off with a meal inside them, then good luck.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but most of those who are getting married will be mixed sex (albeit I expect in time same sex blessings will be allowed in C of E churches if the vicar is willing).

    Divorcees already can get married in Church of England churches if the priest agrees
    Is the Church of England only for hermaphrodites these days?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Roger said:

    'How do you defend a law breaking liar'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEU4CHBJwkU

    To the tune of "How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-VRyQprlu8
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    The French presidential debate seems very long. Is it three hours?
  • Snort! Snort!

    Addendum - love the hat and shirt.

    Personally too roly-poly for bib overalls, but they look good on the swine!
    My hat is quite similar!


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418

    What a boar!
    Looks like the journalist puppets in the original ITV Spitting Image.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    rcs1000 said:



    You've clearly never snorted cocaine off the naked body of a nineteen year old hooker in Bangkok.

    For the record, I haven't either, but @eadric was very clear that that is the ultimate experience.

    Never realised that Eadric was a necrophiliac. Good thing he's not around here any more, isn't it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Some people don't want a drab dull registry office, they want a wedding in a beautiful historic Medieval Parish Church of England church in a traditional English village, even if they are not that religious.

    Only having an established church gives them that opportunity automatically as of right as Parishioners
    In that case, the C of E should go into the wedding venues business. Properly. Either be a religion, or a wedding venue rented out to all and sundry.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    Comments are back. Thanks for sorting out the problem.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Man, you're on fire! Or is it, you're on fire water?
    And mutton pies.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    edited April 2022

    I don't think he will.

    The way things are looking the next GE will be a titanic contest over the economy as we face economic crisis.

    The political class just has not got its head around how bad things are getting and will get in next couple of years.

    If Tories think they can win on women's toilets while millions struggle to heat homes and send their kids off with a meal inside them, then good luck.
    Well of course the economy is always important. That will be the deciding factor as it usually us.

    But personalities will count (Keith is just soooo boring) and the Midlands and north won't vote en masse for someone that is unable to define a woman.

    But yes, the economy will be the deciding factor ultimately. Expect loads of pre-election tax cuts and Boris to ditch the "green crap" at some point between now and autumn 2023...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but most of those who are getting married will be mixed sex (albeit I expect in time same sex blessings will be allowed in C of E churches if the vicar is willing).

    Divorcees already can get married in Church of England churches if the priest agrees
    You said parishioners can automatically get married in the CofE. They can't. The CofE doesn't allow same sex marriages. As you say if the priest is ok with it Divorcees can be married. A same sex marriage in a CofE church would not be recognised in (secular, civil) law, however. So you were wrong. Not a biggie though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    TOPPING said:

    You said parishioners can automatically get married in the CofE. They can't. The CofE doesn't allow same sex marriages. As you say if the priest is ok with it Divorcees can be married. A same sex marriage in a CofE church would not be recognised in law. So you were wrong. Not a biggie though.
    OK heterosexual parishioners (ie still the majority) can get married in C of E churches
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    I actually watched the boxing press conference expecting the usual staged trash talk and petty violence. Like you, I was completely amazed to see what was more akin to the opening handshakes at a public school debating club.

    Very, very odd.
    They are both worried about each other.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited April 2022
    Carnyx said:

    In that case, the C of E should go into the wedding venues business. Properly. Either be a religion, or a wedding venue rented out to all and sundry.
    To some extent it already is, most Vicar's Saturdays are taken up with Weddings and much church and organist and choir income comes from weddings
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    HYUFD said:

    OK heterosexual parishioners (ie still the majority) can get married in C of E churches
    Yes that is correct.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    Andy_JS said:

    Comments are back. Thanks for sorting out the problem.

    We're back Andy J! :D
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    To some extent it already is, most Vicar's Saturdays and much church and organist and choir income, comes from weddings
    In other words, it is a commercial organization not a religion. But it's a religion underpinning the English state and Crown. How odd. It's like finding a bouncy castle company is the core agency for Buddhism.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699
    TOPPING said:

    A point which, when made weeks ago, was met with near universal condemnation on here.
    That was because your spin was “all misinformation … can’t believe anything … no way is Ukraine winning”
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    Not if they are of the same sex they can't. Nor if they are divorced.
    On divorce, the NT is very clear indeed. You may think the NT is wrong about that, just as you may think it is wrong about the implications of the judicial murder of a mainly inoffensive religious Jewish nutter 2000 years ago, but nobody is making you go to church or otherwise believe in this shit. If you want to celebrate a same sex marriage, crack on, but what attracts you to the C of E as a place to do it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    The French presidential debate seems very long. Is it three hours?

    Approaching midnight French time and they are still droning on
    https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220420-live-macron-and-le-pen-face-off-in-debate-ahead-of-french-presidential-run-off
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TOPPING said:

    They are both worried about each other.
    I just assumed Fury would win easily. Although I find that notion bizarre as he is so very obviously out of shape. Not that that ever seems to affect him much.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    I can see him going
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, Blair and New Labour won the Midlands and Scotland comfortably in 1997.

    Starmer it seems has zero chance of winning either, so while he can still become PM with SNP and/or LD support he is unlikely to win a majority let alone a 1997 style landslide
    I can see Labour winning 300 seats without doing particularly well in the Midlands but can now potentially see loads of seats in Lancashire, Durham and Yorkshire reverting to Labour.

    Really the Midlands and Scotland are a barrier to overall majority now. I don't see more than 5-10 seats in the latter TBH although could go possibly up to 15-20 at a subsequent election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    edited April 2022

    That was because your spin was “all misinformation … can’t believe anything … no way is Ukraine winning”
    Not at all. I queried the certainty with which people said Ukraine was winning. Is Ukraine winning?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    GIN1138 said:

    Well of course the economy is always important. That will be the deciding factor as it usually us.

    But personalities will count (Keith is just soooo boring) and the Midlands and north won't vote en masse for someone that is unable to define a woman.

    But yes, the economy will be the deciding factor ultimately. Expect loads of pre-election tax cuts and Boris to ditch the "green crap" at some point between now and autumn 2023...
    The more boring man won the 1992 election, so Boris being more charismatic than Starmer isn't going to cut it alone.
    Labour definitely need to stay away from the woke stuff, mind.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Roger said:

    'How do you defend a law breaking liar'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEU4CHBJwkU

    “Objectively disgusting”

    Spot on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited April 2022
    Carnyx said:

    In other words, it is a commercial organization not a religion. But it's a religion underpinning the English state and Crown. How odd. It's like finding a bouncy castle company is the core agency for Buddhism.
    No it is both and always has been.

    The Church of England has always been a distinctly English Church, a Protestant church with Catholic heritage entrenched in its local community and open to all including country weddings 4 weddings and a funeral style. Sermons more given in upper middle class tones before Sunday lunch and tea with the vicar and cricket on the village green or the village Fete rather than the hellfire and brimstone sermons of, say, the Free Church of Scotland for instance!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Approaching midnight French time and they are still droning on
    https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220420-live-macron-and-le-pen-face-off-in-debate-ahead-of-french-presidential-run-off
    I must say the French are much more interesting when they rioting, setting fire to things and fighting in the streets...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585

    “Objectively disgusting”

    Spot on.
    What was the penalty for not wearing a mask in a barber shop at the weekend in Scotland?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Don’t know where this idea comes from that it’s a binary choice between church or a dowdy registry office. Plenty of absolutely beautiful, glamorous hotels to get married in, without the boring long ceremony associated with religious venues.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    edited April 2022

    I just assumed Fury would win easily. Although I find that notion bizarre as he is so very obviously out of shape. Not that that ever seems to affect him much.
    If you look at him vs Chisora (albeit many years ago) you get an idea as to what the fight will look like. Whyte throwing bombs and Fury boxing using his height to land heavy right crosses over the guard.

    In this way Fury wins, yes, especially if the fight goes beyond six rounds.

    But Whyte can bang and will have worked on his boxing and as Fury said this evening it's a heavyweight contest so one shot is all it might take.

    And for this reason I have backed Whyte.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    And mutton pies.
    Are Scots ones hallucinogenic? IF so, kindly mail me a case or two!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,305
    Carnyx said:

    In that case, the C of E should go into the wedding venues business. Properly. Either be a religion, or a wedding venue rented out to all and sundry.
    I don't mind the C of E being used by people who want to get hatched, matched and dispatched; it's the sort of being present for peoples' lives that the church should be about. Though saying that it's only for the beauty of the location feels a bit off. Besides, there are plenty of drab church buildings and properly attractive civic registry offices. (Though I'd like there to be more nice public buildings than we have... at some point we stopped doing them.)

    The difficulty is that, even if you think the church has a ministry to everyone, it's increasingly hard to sustain, since it's very definitely not everyone paying to keep the roofs on and the clergy in rich tea biscuits. And whilst the CofE has lots of assets, a lot of them are pretty hard to realise and it also has a lot of liabilities. (Not quite at a "pension fund with a church attached" level, but not hugely far off.)

    None of this has much to do with establishment, either.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381

    I can see him going

    I can see Labour winning 300 seats without doing particularly well in the Midlands but can now potentially see loads of seats in Lancashire, Durham and Yorkshire reverting to Labour.

    Really the Midlands and Scotland are a barrier to overall majority now. I don't see more than 5-10 seats in the latter TBH although could go possibly up to 15-20 at a subsequent election.
    Starmer is going to need to start targeting seats like Hexham and Macclesfield in the North if Labour can't make a breakthrough in the Midlands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    I can see him going

    I can see Labour winning 300 seats without doing particularly well in the Midlands but can now potentially see loads of seats in Lancashire, Durham and Yorkshire reverting to Labour.

    Really the Midlands and Scotland are a barrier to overall majority now. I don't see more than 5-10 seats in the latter TBH although could go possibly up to 15-20 at a subsequent election.
    Indeed, the Tories likely face near wipeout in London next month and losses from a low base in the North and Scotland and Wales but better than expected results in the Midlands could save his bacon
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TOPPING said:

    Not at all. I queried the certainty with which people said Ukraine was winning. Is Ukraine winning?
    They certainly believe they will win. But it requires Nato countries to get serious about supporting them. Estonia has given more military aid than France! Germany is endlessly prevaricating.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585
    Farooq said:

    Whew, thank goodness the majority are not affected by this discrimination. It's ok when it's only a minority.
    I believe the church has every right to stick to marriage only being for heterosexual couples. As a religion it’s a belief system. The state allows marriage for same sex couples, rightly in my opinion, but there should be no compulsion for a religion to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited April 2022

    Don’t know where this idea comes from that it’s a binary choice between church or a dowdy registry office. Plenty of absolutely beautiful, glamorous hotels to get married in, without the boring long ceremony associated with religious venues.

    Hotels are for receptions, not wedding services and that still holds for many.

    Nothing beats an excellent church choir and organist too which you cannot get in a hotel
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    You said parishioners can automatically get married in the CofE. They can't. The CofE doesn't allow same sex marriages. As you say if the priest is ok with it Divorcees can be married. A same sex marriage in a CofE church would not be recognised in (secular, civil) law, however. So you were wrong. Not a biggie though.
    Like complaining that the local rugby club doesn't arrange 11 man a side matches where one side bowls leather balls at the other between the wickets during the summer months, because parliament has redefined rugby on a more inclusive basis. So what?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    And mutton pies.
    That’s one of the foods I really miss. Incredibly hard to find nowadays, even in Scotland.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Wonder who that is:

    Inbound Joint Base Andrews 👇

    🇺🇦 Ukrainian Government A319

    #Ukraine #SlavaUkraine


    https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1516896526257303555
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Approaching midnight French time and they are still droning on
    https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220420-live-macron-and-le-pen-face-off-in-debate-ahead-of-french-presidential-run-off
    Yes, I’m watching it on France24. I know our continental friends like to stay up late but this seems a bit ridiculous.

    Edit: finally finishes at 2350 CET. Now time for the spin and analysis before the clubs chuck out!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    GIN1138 said:

    I must say the French are much more interesting when they rioting, setting fire to things and fighting in the streets...
    Now finished at 11 50pm French time
  • TresTres Posts: 2,811

    Re: condoms & Catholics, in the USA the Roman Catholic Church fought tooth and nail against condoms, and later the pill. For example, lobbying for state laws (such as in Connecticut) banning their sale.

    Yet IIRC by 1970s approx. 90% of Catholic women in USA capable of childbearing were using the pill or condoms, and only small minority the church-approved rhythm method. Most did NOT tell their priest about it, or make a big deal about it socially or politically.

    But they did it anyway. Most remaining committed Catholics - in belief that, on this issue, they are NOT the ones out of step with true religion.

    Rather it's popes & priests who err - and despite what some of THEM think, they are NOT the Church.

    Problem is the US is now stuffed full of doctors who won't prescribe birth control to women.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    They certainly believe they will win. But it requires Nato countries to get serious about supporting them. Estonia has given more military aid than France! Germany is endlessly prevaricating.
    As I think you noted there have been proxy wars all over the world between the West and Russia/USSR for the past few decades without anyone thinking it would turn nuclear.

    This time perhaps people are not so sure.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    Johnny Fucking Marr
    That's all.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,153

    Yes but why is the west being so half-hearted? Maybe they don't want to make a big thing about the support they are providing to Ukraine - spare parts but not actual fighter jets????? - but I'm starting to wonder if many in Nato really want Ukraine to win.

    Did the Russians have any difficulty in providing direct assistance to the North Vietnamese.
    I think it's the nuclear angle. There will be many worried at what Putin's reaction will be to a total defeat in Ukraine. Suppose the Russian army is bled dry in the Donbas, and then collapses, with the Ukrainians chasing them to the border, and towards Crimea - Putin might panic and turn to nuclear weapons.

    It might then appear to be for the greater good for Ukraine only to fight Russia to a standstill, in the hopes of using sanctions and the failure of the Russian army as leverage to negotiate Russia out of Ukraine. Or, somewhat less negatively, a gradual Ukrainian victory, pushing Russia back bit by bit, would avoid a sudden catastrophic trigger that might lead to a nuclear response.

    Given what Russia has done in occupied territory I find it hard to accept any continued Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory as an outcome that is for the greater good - but how to avoid the Russian use of nuclear weapons in the face of a conventional defeat?

    The only other possibility that I can think of would be to have a nuclear power join the war on Ukraine's side, and place Ukraine under the defence of their nuclear deterrence.
  • HYUFD said:

    Indeed, the Tories likely face near wipeout in London next month and losses from a low base in the North and Scotland and Wales but better than expected results in the Midlands could save his bacon
    Why on earth should he do anything other than resign
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    I don't mind the C of E being used by people who want to get hatched, matched and dispatched; it's the sort of being present for peoples' lives that the church should be about. Though saying that it's only for the beauty of the location feels a bit off. Besides, there are plenty of drab church buildings and properly attractive civic registry offices. (Though I'd like there to be more nice public buildings than we have... at some point we stopped doing them.)

    The difficulty is that, even if you think the church has a ministry to everyone, it's increasingly hard to sustain, since it's very definitely not everyone paying to keep the roofs on and the clergy in rich tea biscuits. And whilst the CofE has lots of assets, a lot of them are pretty hard to realise and it also has a lot of liabilities. (Not quite at a "pension fund with a church attached" level, but not hugely far off.)

    None of this has much to do with establishment, either.
    It does as Parish weddings, for a fee and funerals keep churches active in their community, not just with services for the faithful
  • The more boring man won the 1992 election, so Boris being more charismatic than Starmer isn't going to cut it alone.
    Labour definitely need to stay away from the woke stuff, mind.
    I don't disagree that boring can win. But Kinnock lacked novelty as a very longstanding opposition leader, and attracted the (rather unfair) nickname "the Welsh Windbag".

    Major was a grey man in some ways BUT relatively novel in 1992, played on his humble roots etc. He wasn't glamorous, certainly, but not was Kinnock by that stage.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    I believe the church has every right to stick to marriage only being for heterosexual couples. As a religion it’s a belief system. The state allows marriage for same sex couples, rightly in my opinion, but there should be no compulsion for a religion to.
    You do wonder why same sex couples would want to get married in and by an institution which so transparently loathes them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited April 2022
    TOPPING said:

    You do wonder why same sex couples would want to get married in and by an institution which so transparently loathes them.
    The US Episcopal church and Welsh Anglican church now do same sex weddings if ministers agree, I expect in time the C of E will follow and the law amended accordingly
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    IshmaelZ said:

    Like complaining that the local rugby club doesn't arrange 11 man a side matches where one side bowls leather balls at the other between the wickets during the summer months, because parliament has redefined rugby on a more inclusive basis. So what?
    You are going to have to make that point a whole lot more intelligible before I am able to respond.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585

    Why on earth should he do anything other than resign
    Because he doesn’t want to go. He wants to be PM, but these nasty people keep bringing up all this boring old rubbish.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Instead of being at Westminster for the big vote, Douglas Ross will be campaigning in central Scotland for the council elections.

    It this a 3-line whip? Consequences/reprisals for the SCon leader?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699
    TOPPING said:

    Not at all. I queried the certainty with which people said Ukraine was winning. Is Ukraine winning?
    Surviving is winning

    Every day they hold the line in Donbas is a day closer to freedom
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Tres said:

    Problem is the US is now stuffed full of doctors who won't prescribe birth control to women.
    It's definitely an issue. But methinks "stuffed" is exaggerated.

    https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/refusing-provide-health-services
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    HYUFD said:

    The US Episcopal church and Welsh Anglican church now do same sex weddings if ministers agree, I expect in time the C of E will follow and the law amended accordingly
    The Welsh Anglican Church is of course disestablished.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,699

    They certainly believe they will win. But it requires Nato countries to get serious about supporting them. Estonia has given more military aid than France! Germany is endlessly prevaricating.
    Germany isn’t prevaricating. They are obfuscating. They have no intention of helping Ukraine
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    Carnyx said:

    But it's not established, is it? You're talking more mince than a catering pack of Quorn from Farmfoods.
    point of order here, a catering pack of Quorn contains zero percent mince, its sort of proverbial for it so the metaphor fails a little
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585
    TOPPING said:

    You do wonder why same sex couples would want to get married in and by an institution which so transparently loathes them.
    People seem to get married in church for the building. I find it really odd that people who are not at all religious, don’t believe in god etc will make vows to the person they intend to be with for life that include a mystic sky fairy they don’t believe in. So they are lying at the point of making the vows... Is it any wonder the divorce rate is so high!
This discussion has been closed.