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Not good numbers for BoJo/CON ahead of the local elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Sigh.

    Camden was an example picked to wind up @Leon

    Any project requiring purchase of land or property (or compensating neighbours) will cost more in London
    From my memory, that discrepancy existed a good decade ago - in fact, might well have been worse - before there was anything needing major land purchases.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Bollocks. (That's my professional opinion having a PhD in psychology and a chair at a Russell Group university.)
    Ok, so what statistical measure is MORE reliable amd repeatable than IQ in psychology? And I will laugh at you if you come back with a sub-component of IQ.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    Bollocks. (That's my professional opinion having a PhD in psychology and a chair at a Russell Group university.)
    Typical bloody experts.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    People who think the North just needs to get a bit of swagger (this is essentially also the Treasury’s view) remind me of those Victorians who blamed cholera on a “miasma”.

    FFS, stay away from the Broadwick Street pump.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Aslan said:

    This is just unscientific bullshit. IQ is THE most reliable metric in the whole of modern psychology. If it doesn't meet your scientific standards than you can throw out the entire field of study as worthless.
    I bloody love your second sentence. When rhetorical questions turn out bad...

    Read The Mismeasure of Man by Stephen Jay Gould

    Psychology says nothing interesting or reproducible or falsifiable. Lovely little science otherwise.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    And get booted out for it - we are able to sack our Government in a way that we couldn't sack the four freedoms (obviously until we did, yadayadyada).
    Exactly right. This government promised a skilled points system. But they have developed a system where low skilled jobs allow you to come in as a shopkeeper earning 26k a year. Window dressers as a skilled occupation, FFS!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730
    Aslan said:

    Russell Warne has spent many hours scrutinising undergraduate psychology textbooks. As a professor of psychology at Utah Valley University, he wasn’t looking for insight, but for mistakes – and he found plenty. Some of the worst concerned IQ tests. “The most common inaccuracy I found, by far, was the claim that intelligence tests are biased against certain groups,” he says. Yet intelligence researchers are at pains to ensure that IQ tests are fair and not culturally biased. “Another, very common one was the idea that intelligence is difficult to measure.”

    The truth about intelligence: A guide for the confusedOur thinking on human intellect is clouded with misinformation. But the latest science of intelligence is surprisingly enlightening

    No wonder IQ tests are often considered controversial and flaky. But that simply isn’t the case. “Despite the critiques, the intelligence test is one of the most reliable and solid behavioural tests ever invented,” says Rex Jung at the University of New Mexico.

    more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931870-400-the-truth-about-intelligence-do-iq-tests-really-work/#ixzz7QqFLRQMJ

    When the historians come to write The Downfall of The West, one of the chapters should be devoted to IQ tests, and how we were persuaded to regard these perfectly valid, hugely useful measurements as somehow bestial and racist by, firstly, a bunch of west-hating Marxists, and, secondly, a bunch of west-hating Marxists fuelled by Chinese and Russian bots, memes, and algorithms

    Do the Chinese disregard IQ tests because they sometimes pump out "uncomfortable" data? Of course not

    Yet right now American universities - the best in the world (but not for much longer) - are abandoning SATs (based on IQ tests) because they produce "unequal racial outcomes". Thus the canker spreads


    "In an effort to eliminate high-stakes exams because of equity concerns, California State University, the country’s largest four-year university system, announced it is eliminating standardized tests for undergraduate admissions."

    https://www.deseret.com/2022/3/24/22994611/californias-23-school-university-system-drops-sat-act-tests-test-free-admission

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    See my post. It’s precisely about those things, plus autonomy.
    I really don't see it GW. There's something else. The magic mustard. The more I think about it the more I think it is to do with something like pride.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Aslan said:

    Ok, so what statistical measure is MORE reliable amd repeatable than IQ in psychology? And I will laugh at you if you come back with a sub-component of IQ.
    Quite. And what part of Hippocratic medicine is more gold standard then the theory of the four humours?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    IshmaelZ said:

    I bloody love your second sentence. When rhetorical questions turn out bad...

    Read The Mismeasure of Man by Stephen Jay Gould

    Psychology says nothing interesting or reproducible or falsifiable. Lovely little science otherwise.
    So presumably the entire taxpayer support for therapy can be eliminated, in your opinion?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,534
    Of course, it's not easy to assess all transport spending on a regional basis. I'd argue all of the HS2 spend in London should be considered spending for the Midlands and the North.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730
    IshmaelZ said:

    I bloody love your second sentence. When rhetorical questions turn out bad...

    Read The Mismeasure of Man by Stephen Jay Gould

    Psychology says nothing interesting or reproducible or falsifiable. Lovely little science otherwise.
    Gould was an unrepentant Marxist. That entire book is Marxist crap

    "Stephen Jay Gould: Intuitive Marxist and Biologist of Freedom

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0893569032000163375?journalCode=rrmx20

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    Unless you expect 'pride' to motivate people to purchase ladders and tins of Dulux and illegally redecorate the frontages of buildings that are owned by others, then pride alone won't do it. Commercial landlords being taxed for having empty, seedy, run-down high street properties would do it. Tax them until the pips squeak. Tax them until they are forced to sell, or forced to rent, well below their current grossly inflated expectations.
    Buying a tin of Dulux is exactly the sort of thing that seems unimportant, but represents so much more. I admit though I've had to back to using milk in my custard.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    IshmaelZ said:

    Quite. And what part of Hippocratic medicine is more gold standard then the theory of the four humours?
    Are measures of the four humors repeatable with rates higher than 85%?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited April 2022
    Omnium said:

    I really don't see it GW. There's something else. The magic mustard. The more I think about it the more I think it is to do with something like pride.
    No mate.
    It’s all in the data.

    In the economy of the 21st century, if you leave a region to rot, you don’t get either domestic or foreign investment in growth businesses.

    The UK has left them to rot for years, indeed it has been part of the consensus ideology to do so.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    People who think the North just needs to get a bit of swagger (this is essentially also the Treasury’s view) remind me of those Victorians who blamed cholera on a “miasma”.

    FFS, stay away from the Broadwick Street pump.

    On a point of PB pedantry, I believe it was Broad St when it had the pump ... certainly when aforesaid pump was infected with cholera.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,629
    Omnium said:

    Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

    Visited the exterior sites of all the upcoming new-build Crossrail stations within the last month or so but noticed that TfL have left all the escalators on even though no passengers are due to be carried until "mid 2022"!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,339
    Omnium said:

    I really don't see it GW. There's something else. The magic mustard. The more I think about it the more I think it is to do with something like pride.
    It's a fair point that you can't do regeneration just on the basis of civic pride. And if that is what levelling up turns out to be, it will be flogging a dead horse. But a lot of the great urban regenerations have had it as part of the mix.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,181
    MrEd said:

    Two things post-catching up on the latest New Statesman:

    (1) on topic, Andrew Marr’s article is decidedly downbeat on Labour, even with its poll lead. His claim is that BJ’s criticism of Starmer as a “man without a plan” is cutting through, that dissatisfaction is rising internally with Starmer’s performance and that the Labour front bench is becoming increasingly apathetic (I realise to some that Marr’s view will make them more optimistic on Labour’s chances);

    (2) the interview with Sergey Karaganov. What struck me was his use of the word “existential” in the interview, saying that, for the Russian regime, not only would defeat be an existential crisis but also a non-victory. Given Peskov has said Russia won’t use nuclear weapons unless it faces an existential threat, that could point to a greater willingness to use it under certain circumstances. Having said that, it could be a deliberately ploy knowing idiots like me would put 2 and 2 together…

    1) is true in so far as Labour not being on 50% etc. Starmer isn’t a stratospheric Big Cheese, but he is looking at beating BJ at the next election

    2) Russia had built up the myth that they are bigger, badder and back since the end of the cold war. They are facing the truth, now, that Japan is a bigger military power in most ways. Their national myth is taking a kicking because even more of the Near Abroad wants them to fuck off. And keep fucking off etc etc. there is definitely a sense that their next move may be a game of 52 Card Pickup
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,339
    Aslan said:

    We don't and the government should get criticism for it.
    So who should be arranging the flowers?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,534
    NEW THREAD
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    It's a fair point that you can't do regeneration just on the basis of civic pride. And if that is what levelling up turns out to be, it will be flogging a dead horse. But a lot of the great urban regenerations have had it as part of the mix.
    Pride comes from autonomy.

    Successful regeneration (or just generation) comes from local decision makers and local stakeholders with the means to make local decisions around a shared vision.

    That’s pride-in-action.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    tlg86 said:

    Of course, it's not easy to assess all transport spending on a regional basis. I'd argue all of the HS2 spend in London should be considered spending for the Midlands and the North.

    The primary purpose of HS2 is to facilitate more commuter services in London and the Home Counties.

    It will do nothing for connectivity between northern cities.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,205
    Leon said:

    When the historians come to write The Downfall of The West, one of the chapters should be devoted to IQ tests, and how we were persuaded to regard these perfectly valid, hugely useful measurements as somehow bestial and racist by, firstly, a bunch of west-hating Marxists, and, secondly, a bunch of west-hating Marxists fuelled by Chinese and Russian bots, memes, and algorithms

    Do the Chinese disregard IQ tests because they sometimes pump out "uncomfortable" data? Of course not

    Yet right now American universities - the best in the world (but not for much longer) - are abandoning SATs (based on IQ tests) because they produce "unequal racial outcomes". Thus the canker spreads


    "In an effort to eliminate high-stakes exams because of equity concerns, California State University, the country’s largest four-year university system, announced it is eliminating standardized tests for undergraduate admissions."

    https://www.deseret.com/2022/3/24/22994611/californias-23-school-university-system-drops-sat-act-tests-test-free-admission

    My understanding is that SATS are being replaced by grade point averages because the latter has greater predictive power of success on the course.

    This is not surprising. Intelligence without mental discipline and application is ephemeral. I see this all the time with our students.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    No mate.
    It’s all in the data.

    In the economy of the 21st century, if you leave a region to rot, you don’t get either domestic or foreign investment in growth businesses.

    The UK has left them to rot for years, indeed it has been part of the consensus ideology to do so.
    I struggle to see it that way. I'm sure that boosting education and transport everywhere is a good thing though, so we're not likely far adrift as to what should be done.



  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,791

    Yes, but the loss of pride follows the economic decline, not so much the other way round.

    As Leon goes on to relate, Britain has an awful lot of these places as a result of industrialising early and densely.

    I could go on, but I feel I’ve written a lot about this before. The only thing that matters is how to fix it.

    Essentially the answers are:

    1. Autonomy
    2. Infrastructure
    3. Skills

    The first seems to be anathema to British tradition, and 2 and 3 require money - lots of it and over a long term, too.

    It’s possible. East Germany is the leading example. Even there, the places have suffered a lot of depopulation, but at least those that are left are now wealthier than much of the UK.
    I applaud your desire to fix places like Stoke, but I think your 1, 2, and 3 are well wide of the mark.

    Wales and Scotland have autonomy, and a fairly significant financial bonus to go with it (obviously not something that every proposed autonomous region can have, as by definition, everyone cannot have 'more'.),and they still have 'Stokes' and plenty of them.

    Infrastructure is fine, but if somewhere is a jobless dive, all infrastructure does is make it easier to get out, a bit like all HS2 would have done is provide a bigger commuter base for London.

    Skills, likewise, whilst helpful, improve areas. Very little point in having skills, with nowhere to put them to use.

    To me, those are just the old, tried and failed solutions.

    My 1, 2, and 3 of post-industrial regeneration would be as follows I think.

    1. Reindustrialisation. The best thing to do in a former coal mining town is mine coal. The best thing to do in a former fishing town is fish. The best thing to do in a boot making town is make boots. This is just a statement of the obvious really. Communities have gathered around these jobs. It's unlikely that they are all going to find work as trendy Web designers, though the possibility should of course not be dismissed. What will work is provably going to be fairly close to what worked before.

    2. Carrot and stick tax incentives. Enterprise zones with lower taxes to start new businesses. Higher taxes on landlords with run-down high street property portfolios and developers sitting on land.

    3. Onshoring. Government should use its influence to on-shore as much business as possible. Call-centres. Manufacturing. Production of green energy materials and devices.

    That would put a rocket up it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,664
    Aslan said:

    Ok, so what statistical measure is MORE reliable amd repeatable than IQ in psychology? And I will laugh at you if you come back with a sub-component of IQ.
    I'm not here to do your homework for you. My consultancy fees are £1000 per day. I may have time in the autumn if the COVID work dies down.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited April 2022

    I applaud your desire to fix places like Stoke, but I think your 1, 2, and 3 are well wide of the mark.

    Wales and Scotland have autonomy, and a fairly significant financial bonus to go with it (obviously not something that every proposed autonomous region can have, as by definition, everyone cannot have 'more'.),and they still have 'Stokes' and plenty of them.

    Infrastructure is fine, but if somewhere is a jobless dive, all infrastructure does is make it easier to get out, a bit like all HS2 would have done is provide a bigger commuter base for London.

    Skills, likewise, whilst helpful, improve areas. Very little point in having skills, with nowhere to put them to use.

    To me, those are just the old, tried and failed solutions.

    My 1, 2, and 3 of post-industrial regeneration would be as follows I think.

    1. Reindustrialisation. The best thing to do in a former coal mining town is mine coal. The best thing to do in a former fishing town is fish. The best thing to do in a boot making town is make boots. This is just a statement of the obvious really. Communities have gathered around these jobs. It's unlikely that they are all going to find work as trendy Web designers, though the possibility should of course not be dismissed. What will work is provably going to be fairly close to what worked before.

    2. Carrot and stick tax incentives. Enterprise zones with lower taxes to start new businesses. Higher taxes on landlords with run-down high street property portfolios and developers sitting on land.

    3. Onshoring. Government should use its influence to on-shore as much business as possible. Call-centres. Manufacturing. Production of green energy materials and devices.

    That would put a rocket up it.
    Scotland has autonomy and some fiscal clout.
    Wales has less.

    Glasgow and Cardiff, which is where the wealth must be created, have none.

    Also, both Executives have generally bought into the UK ideology that money should be spent on social care rather than infrastructure and priming wealth creation.

    Transport spending is - or should be - about making it easier for a labour pool to access jobs (and vice versa) not making it “easier to get out”.

    As to your idea to “bring back coal mining”, it is totally batshit. Do you think South Korea should give up shipbuilding and auto and revert to fishing or whatever they did before?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    The council closing all the museums - which had the finest collection of ceramics in the country (better than the V&A) - tells us a lot of places like Stoke.

    Both the place itself, and how it is treated by the rest of the country.
    Not the main museum with the big collection. The proposal is to be seasonal with the Gladstone Pottery Museum which is an industrial heritage site and also reducing opening times at the City Museum. Regrettable, but let's not exaggerate. An injection of funds to spearhead more regeneration via culture would be money well spent though.

    Ignoring the exaggerated rhetoric about Stoke on this thread, there is a mixed picture. There are areas of post-industrial dereliction and areas with a lot of poverty and social problems. There are also lots of aspects that are very positive and taking the Potteries and immediate area as a whole lot of there is a lot that is interesting and attractive and it has a great setting on the edge of the Peak District. Longer term I think it has more potential than some post-industrial areas simply because of its fantastic location within England. Less than an hour and half Stoke to Euston, central between Birmingham and Manchester with no geographical barriers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Not the main museum with the big collection. The proposal is to be seasonal with the Gladstone Pottery Museum which is an industrial heritage site and also reducing opening times at the City Museum. Regrettable, but let's not exaggerate. An injection of funds to spearhead more regeneration via culture would be money well spent though.

    Ignoring the exaggerated rhetoric about Stoke on this thread, there is a mixed picture. There are areas of post-industrial dereliction and areas with a lot of poverty and social problems. There are also lots of aspects that are very positive and taking the Potteries and immediate area as a whole lot of there is a lot that is interesting and attractive and it has a great setting on the edge of the Peak District. Longer term I think it has more potential than some post-industrial areas simply because of its fantastic location within England. Less than an hour and half Stoke to Euston, central between Birmingham and Manchester with no geographical barriers.
    I have to confess I’m not an expert on Stoke.
    But I would note, too, on the positive side, the rise of Bet365.

    I agree with you that Stoke could have a positive future, as a kind of high growth dormitory with enviable links to Birmingham, Manchester (and Liverpool).

    Kind of like Warrington or Milton Keynes, with pottery kilns.

    Here’s a link to a blog which suggests there is some fantastic architecture in Stoke which perhaps needs better joining up.

    http://www.jonestheplanner.co.uk/?m=1

    What it needs is local vision to get there.
    If I was in charge of Stoke I would indeed to be over-investing in the local realm in order to draw in workers from the above-mentioned cities.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661

    The train station looks OK.
    Railway station. Never train station.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,757
    Carnyx said:

    From my memory, that discrepancy existed a good decade ago - in fact, might well have been worse - before there was anything needing major land purchases.
    How about the additional complexity of tunnelling through ground that has been built on for millennia?
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207
    ydoethur said:

    A silly thing to say Mr Eagles.

    The A500 takes you to Crewe.

    The A50 takes you to Dovedale.
    I grew up between Stoke and Crewe, in a place called Alsager, actually it seemed quite a nice place at the time. Though both Crewe and Stoke have lost their main industries in the 40 years or so since, which probably explains most of the decline.

    Of course I moved to Surrey after university, like 20% of the other people on this site from what I can see. We ought to open a Woking chapter of PB...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,933
    edited April 2022

    People who think the North just needs to get a bit of swagger (this is essentially also the Treasury’s view) remind me of those Victorians who blamed cholera on a “miasma”.

    FFS, stay away from the Broadwick Street pump.

    When they produce politicians with a bit of it they are declared unelectable because of their accent.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    Aslan said:

    Ok, so what statistical measure is MORE reliable amd repeatable than IQ in psychology? And I will laugh at you if you come back with a sub-component of IQ.
    It isn't controversial to note that with training, one can increase the score you get on IQ tests by quite a significant amount. I've posted academic studies before on the subject, and you obviously can't move someone from 65 to 130, but a difference of 20 points between someone who has never been exposed to the test before, and someone who has been trained, is a pretty significant difference.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    Leon said:

    This is just unscientific shite

    IQ tests measure something important, which allows people to succeed in a capitalist society, if it upsets you, don't call it "intelligence"

    Jews are smarter ON AVERAGE than non-Jews. IQ tests detect that. As do Nobel Prizes:

    "At least 210 Jews and people of half- or three-quarters-Jewish ancestry have been awarded the Nobel Prize, accounting for 22% of all individual recipients worldwide between 1901 and 2021,"

    Read that again, between a fifth and a quarter of all Nobel Prizes have gone to people of notably Jewish ancestry, yet Jews constitute perhaps 0.2-0.3% of the global population

    What is the point in denying this obvious stuff? Honestly, it makes the commenter sound wilfully retarded. I understand why a politician in a public forum may need to steer clear of these contentious issues, but this is a small political betting website. FFS

    'unscientific shite' you say.

    One of us is a scientist, one isn't. One of us has specific knowledge in this area and one of us doesn't. One of us suffers from the Dunning Kruger effect.

    Now I don't deny there may be genetic differences across races (you seem to have missed that) but the variables are so huge it is impossible to measure.

    Let's look at the opposite end of your example. Are you really claiming that the average IQ of Nepal is 43? That is idiot level. If not then what makes you think the other end of the IQ range is right.
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