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Inflation is taxation without legislation – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,623
edited April 2022 in General
Inflation is taxation without legislation – politicalbetting.com

As inflation in the UK rises to a 30-year high, 73% of Britons say that the government is mishandling the issue https://t.co/V9oTp3kBji pic.twitter.com/iPealXE398

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  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,769
    First
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,987
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Re Alastair on cards, related but not at all the same, I have a party piece which goes as follows -

    Somebody shuffles a pack of cards and gives it to me. I hold it face down and start flipping them over, one by one and quick. Before each one, I predict Red or Black, and if I’m right I score a point.

    Beforehand I explain what I’m going to do and I ask people how many points they think I’ll manage to get. They say 26 or thereabouts. Why? I ask. Because it’s about a 50/50 chance each time, they say.

    And I go, well I bet you I get at least 33 and maybe even close to 40.

    Go for it, they say, and they crowd around excitedly (it’s a slow party).

    So I do, and I always meet my mark. Much admiration ensues. Quite rightly because only a minority of people can do this.

    As you know how red or black the remainder of the deck is, this doesn't sound very complicated.

    I will now run a thousand python simulations, and tell you what the expected number you should get is (given you always choose whatever is the value option).
    The trick is keeping count at speed, though.
    Ummm. It's just a single number, and it only goes up or down by one each card. So I reckon it wouldn't be that hard.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,133
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Re Alastair on cards, related but not at all the same, I have a party piece which goes as follows -

    Somebody shuffles a pack of cards and gives it to me. I hold it face down and start flipping them over, one by one and quick. Before each one, I predict Red or Black, and if I’m right I score a point.

    Beforehand I explain what I’m going to do and I ask people how many points they think I’ll manage to get. They say 26 or thereabouts. Why? I ask. Because it’s about a 50/50 chance each time, they say.

    And I go, well I bet you I get at least 33 and maybe even close to 40.

    Go for it, they say, and they crowd around excitedly (it’s a slow party).

    So I do, and I always meet my mark. Much admiration ensues. Quite rightly because only a minority of people can do this.

    As you know how red or black the remainder of the deck is, this doesn't sound very complicated.

    I will now run a thousand python simulations, and tell you what the expected number you should get is (given you always choose whatever is the value option).
    The trick is keeping count at speed, though.
    Ummm. It's just a single number, and it only goes up or down by one each card. So I reckon it wouldn't be that hard.
    Two single numbers - you need to keep a running count of red and not red.
    A bit like playing fizz/buzz.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/adventures-in-card-play-mistakes-with-maths-and-how-to-avoid-them-when-thinking-about-covid-19-and-126b356b921a

    It is an extremely poor article in which Meeks pontificates on a subject (Bayes Theorem) about which he characteristically knows nothing.

    I once tried to explain what a Fisher matrix was to Meeks ... I was told law is more important than mathematics.
    I had to stop reading when he said “I understand the maths, I really do”; I couldn’t risk tossing my phone at the Pyrenees due to his ignorance of the subject.
    Well, hang on. Take the R & C Are Dead situation where you are tossing a coin and telling me the outcome. When you get to the 90th heads in a row I am coming to conclusions about your honesty and/or the fairness of the coin. Surely what I am doing is updating my priors, which is exactly what Mr Meeks is correctly on about?
    Entirely different. A coin is far easier to rig than a shuffle. Meeks is talking about card games; the cards are already shuffled by the game. For anyone to rig them for exactly the same deal with another shuffle is beyond even belief.

    Unless we’re playing against “God”.
    But:

    https://aperiodical.com/2011/12/four-perfect-hands-an-event-never-seen-before-right/

    9 reports of "perfect" bridge deals. The assumption is not rigging, it's randomness on top of imperfect shuffling

    You need to update your priors

    ETA and the game *unshuffles* the cards. If you collect in hands at the end of a game of bridge they are partly sorted by suit.
    It is worth remembering that there aren't anywhere near as many hands of bridge as there are of different shuffles of the deck.

    Because each card is assigned to one of four hands, and the order they enter the hand is irrelevant.

    I can't be bothered to do the math, but I'd reckon that cuts the number of deals by at least ten orders of magnitude.
    That is right but we have a lot of orders of magnitude to spare
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,987
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Re Alastair on cards, related but not at all the same, I have a party piece which goes as follows -

    Somebody shuffles a pack of cards and gives it to me. I hold it face down and start flipping them over, one by one and quick. Before each one, I predict Red or Black, and if I’m right I score a point.

    Beforehand I explain what I’m going to do and I ask people how many points they think I’ll manage to get. They say 26 or thereabouts. Why? I ask. Because it’s about a 50/50 chance each time, they say.

    And I go, well I bet you I get at least 33 and maybe even close to 40.

    Go for it, they say, and they crowd around excitedly (it’s a slow party).

    So I do, and I always meet my mark. Much admiration ensues. Quite rightly because only a minority of people can do this.

    As you know how red or black the remainder of the deck is, this doesn't sound very complicated.

    I will now run a thousand python simulations, and tell you what the expected number you should get is (given you always choose whatever is the value option).
    The trick is keeping count at speed, though.
    Ummm. It's just a single number, and it only goes up or down by one each card. So I reckon it wouldn't be that hard.
    Two single numbers - you need to keep a running count of red and not red.
    A bit like playing fizz/buzz.
    You start off at zero, and add one if it's red, and take one away if it's black. If the number is greater than zero, choose black. If it's less than zero choose red.

    If it's zero, just guess.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Re Alastair on cards, related but not at all the same, I have a party piece which goes as follows -

    Somebody shuffles a pack of cards and gives it to me. I hold it face down and start flipping them over, one by one and quick. Before each one, I predict Red or Black, and if I’m right I score a point.

    Beforehand I explain what I’m going to do and I ask people how many points they think I’ll manage to get. They say 26 or thereabouts. Why? I ask. Because it’s about a 50/50 chance each time, they say.

    And I go, well I bet you I get at least 33 and maybe even close to 40.

    Go for it, they say, and they crowd around excitedly (it’s a slow party).

    So I do, and I always meet my mark. Much admiration ensues. Quite rightly because only a minority of people can do this.

    As you know how red or black the remainder of the deck is, this doesn't sound very complicated.

    I will now run a thousand python simulations, and tell you what the expected number you should get is (given you always choose whatever is the value option).
    The trick is keeping count at speed, though.
    Ummm. It's just a single number, and it only goes up or down by one each card. So I reckon it wouldn't be that hard.
    It isn't that hard, no. Just needs a little practice. I'm assuming from the lack of response to a message near the end of the last thread that we don't have any/many (card) magicians about this afternoon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    Rob Key confirmed as the new England managing director.

    Now they just need a coach, a captain, a chair and a CEO who isn't batshit crazy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,875
    Nigelb said:

    Transplanting @Cyclefree ’s rather lovely tulips FPT.

    Cyclefree said:

    Tulip mania is IMHO entirely understandable.


    You're only saying that because you've already established a bull position. 😊

    Someone mentioned tulips? How about cheese plants? (?)

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/apr/17/gold-leaves-meet-the-30000-pound-houseplants-sparking-a-new-green-crimewave
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,133
    “ Inflation is taxation without legislation ”

    Definitely the case when government has taken out much debt on our behalf.
    Even without taking into account fiscal drag.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key confirmed as the new England managing director.

    Now they just need a coach, a captain, a chair and a CEO who isn't batshit crazy.

    You are demanding!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,110
    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key confirmed as the new England managing director.

    Now they just need a coach, a captain, a chair and a CEO who isn't batshit crazy.

    Someone who can bowl on a flat wicket would be good too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    edited April 2022
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key confirmed as the new England managing director.

    Now they just need a coach, a captain, a chair and a CEO who isn't batshit crazy.

    Someone who can bowl on a flat wicket would be good too.
    We mustn't ask for miracles, even on Easter Day.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    After hubris comes nemesis.

    Brexit-voting demographics are going to suffer the most.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,110
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key confirmed as the new England managing director.

    Now they just need a coach, a captain, a chair and a CEO who isn't batshit crazy.

    Someone who can bowl on a flat wicket would be good too.
    We mustn't ask for miracles, even on Easter Day.
    I know, otherwise I would have asked for someone to keep Root company when he's scoring half England's runs.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    “Inflation is taxation without legislation”

    It’s a pithy headline.

    Sunak has chosen fiscal drag as a tool to fix the public finances and the poorest households are taking the biggest hit.

    All so he could have a shot at the top job.

    It’s unconscionable. He should go.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    edited April 2022
    On all formats, Glos vs Yorkshire live stream has had 192,000 hits across the four days.

    Let's assume that we divide that number by 12 on account of the fact that we have four days and three sessions in each.

    That still amounts to 16,000 spectators a day. Even assuming they are all individuals and we know from @MoonRabbit that they're not.

    Remind me again about the unpopularity of county cricket?

    Live streams may well be the salvation of cricket - not the loss making and destructive Hundred.

    Edit - they may have more in the next couple of hours as it's bubbling up nicely here.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    ydoethur said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    JRM. "His Grace...is a true witness for Christ...I don't agree with him."
    Logically that makes him a non-believer in Christ doesn't it?

    Viscount Montgomery of Alamein:

    'Now gentlemen, as Our Lord said unto Moses and in my opinion quite rightly...'
    Sunday afternoon stroll to victory out there in the cricket Doctor Y. 😝

    My Dad has it on in his office, and 100% confident. I’m flitting in and out, spending a bit time outside here today. Took some wonderful photos on my girlfriend yesterday I was tempted to share. Sat in a field with lambs come across to say hello.
    I don't think Glos will stroll to victory. They've got quite a bit of work to do yet.

    Particularly since Yorkshire have been playing with 13 men...
    🤭 . .
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Transplanting @Cyclefree ’s rather lovely tulips FPT.

    Cyclefree said:

    Tulip mania is IMHO entirely understandable.


    You're only saying that because you've already established a bull position. 😊

    Someone mentioned tulips? How about cheese plants? (?)

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/apr/17/gold-leaves-meet-the-30000-pound-houseplants-sparking-a-new-green-crimewave
    That cheese plant is an abomination. The plant is lovely enough without subjecting it to such vulgarity.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    topherdawson said:

    If someone else has raised this, apologies, but does it not look likely that Johnson or his camp have leaked Sunak's green card, wife's tax affairs and so on? It seems to have been a very effective way to banjax Sunak's chances of being PM. Is banjax a word used outside Scotland by the way? It seems to have an unknown, perhaps Irish etymology.

    Yes, that was my first thought. Unprovable, but a sound working hypothesis.

    Ought to be “outwith Scotland” ;)

    On the etymology: no idea. All I can say is that it is a word I am familiar with. Often Scots have no idea that our vocabulary is specific to us, until someone points it out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,133
    edited April 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Re Alastair on cards, related but not at all the same, I have a party piece which goes as follows -

    Somebody shuffles a pack of cards and gives it to me. I hold it face down and start flipping them over, one by one and quick. Before each one, I predict Red or Black, and if I’m right I score a point.

    Beforehand I explain what I’m going to do and I ask people how many points they think I’ll manage to get. They say 26 or thereabouts. Why? I ask. Because it’s about a 50/50 chance each time, they say.

    And I go, well I bet you I get at least 33 and maybe even close to 40.

    Go for it, they say, and they crowd around excitedly (it’s a slow party).

    So I do, and I always meet my mark. Much admiration ensues. Quite rightly because only a minority of people can do this.

    As you know how red or black the remainder of the deck is, this doesn't sound very complicated.

    I will now run a thousand python simulations, and tell you what the expected number you should get is (given you always choose whatever is the value option).
    The trick is keeping count at speed, though.
    Ummm. It's just a single number, and it only goes up or down by one each card. So I reckon it wouldn't be that hard.
    Two single numbers - you need to keep a running count of red and not red.
    A bit like playing fizz/buzz.
    You start off at zero, and add one if it's red, and take one away if it's black. If the number is greater than zero, choose black. If it's less than zero choose red.

    If it's zero, just guess.
    I get that. You still have to keep red and black as separate mental categories, which is why it takes practice.
    But you’re right that once cemented, it should be trivial.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,133
    Nigelb said:

    “ Inflation is taxation without legislation ”

    Definitely the case when government has taken out much debt on our behalf.
    Even without taking into account fiscal drag.

    Though as it’s a tax on (cash) savings, some will approve.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2022
    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key confirmed as the new England managing director.

    Now they just need a coach, a captain, a chair and a CEO who isn't batshit crazy.

    Someone who can bowl on a flat wicket would be good too.
    We mustn't ask for miracles, even on Easter Day.
    I know, otherwise I would have asked for someone to keep Root company when he's scoring half England's runs.
    James Bracey. Last three matches scores of 177 (vs Yorkshire) 117 (vs Northants) and 113 (vs Australia A).

    Why they sent Alex Lees to the Windies instead is beyond me.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ping said:

    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.

    We do have a tool to deal with it. His name is Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,110
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Rob Key confirmed as the new England managing director.

    Now they just need a coach, a captain, a chair and a CEO who isn't batshit crazy.

    Someone who can bowl on a flat wicket would be good too.
    We mustn't ask for miracles, even on Easter Day.
    I know, otherwise I would have asked for someone to keep Root company when he's scoring half England's runs.
    James Bracey. Last three matches scores of 177 (vs Yorkshire) 117 (vs Northants) and 113 (vs Australia A).

    Why they sent Alex Lees to the Windies instead is beyond me.
    Lack of a coach, capiain, chair, etc? No one has had a grip for a while.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Nigelb said:

    Transplanting @Cyclefree ’s rather lovely tulips FPT.

    Cyclefree said:

    Tulip mania is IMHO entirely understandable.


    You're only saying that because you've already established a bull position. 😊

    If only. What that garden costs me in ready cash, not to mention hard physical labour .... well. Bending down and planting 000's of spring bulbs is not the work of a moment, I can tell you. I may not be able to run a marathon but my flexibility is that of a Chinese gymnast.

    I am so pleased with how it has turned out, not least because here there have been no squirrels to dig them all up. It was a running battle every year in London trying to outwit the local squirrels who seemed to view my garden as their local food bank.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,133
    edited April 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    topherdawson said:

    If someone else has raised this, apologies, but does it not look likely that Johnson or his camp have leaked Sunak's green card, wife's tax affairs and so on? It seems to have been a very effective way to banjax Sunak's chances of being PM. Is banjax a word used outside Scotland by the way? It seems to have an unknown, perhaps Irish etymology.

    Yes, that was my first thought. Unprovable, but a sound working hypothesis.

    Ought to be “outwith Scotland” ;)

    On the etymology: no idea. All I can say is that it is a word I am familiar with. Often Scots have no idea that our vocabulary is specific to us, until someone points it out.
    Note that Truss was his predecessor as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, so might have been in a position to be privy to the information which he shared with officials when first appointed.

    There’s also the Saj, but he has his own green card issues.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Transplanting @Cyclefree ’s rather lovely tulips FPT.

    Cyclefree said:

    Tulip mania is IMHO entirely understandable.


    You're only saying that because you've already established a bull position. 😊

    If only. What that garden costs me in ready cash, not to mention hard physical labour .... well. Bending down and planting 000's of spring bulbs is not the work of a moment, I can tell you. I may not be able to run a marathon but my flexibility is that of a Chinese gymnast.

    I am so pleased with how it has turned out, not least because here there have been no squirrels to dig them all up. It was a running battle every year in London trying to outwit the local squirrels who seemed to view my garden as their local food bank.
    Also @kinabalu, that is in the Lakes. In London Eldest Son has taken over gardening duties and is showing promise. He is quite successfully growing avocados.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,682
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Re Alastair on cards, related but not at all the same, I have a party piece which goes as follows -

    Somebody shuffles a pack of cards and gives it to me. I hold it face down and start flipping them over, one by one and quick. Before each one, I predict Red or Black, and if I’m right I score a point.

    Beforehand I explain what I’m going to do and I ask people how many points they think I’ll manage to get. They say 26 or thereabouts. Why? I ask. Because it’s about a 50/50 chance each time, they say.

    And I go, well I bet you I get at least 33 and maybe even close to 40.

    Go for it, they say, and they crowd around excitedly (it’s a slow party).

    So I do, and I always meet my mark. Much admiration ensues. Quite rightly because only a minority of people can do this.

    As you know how red or black the remainder of the deck is, this doesn't sound very complicated.

    I will now run a thousand python simulations, and tell you what the expected number you should get is (given you always choose whatever is the value option).
    The trick is keeping count at speed, though.
    Ummm. It's just a single number, and it only goes up or down by one each card. So I reckon it wouldn't be that hard.
    Two single numbers - you need to keep a running count of red and not red.
    A bit like playing fizz/buzz.
    You start off at zero, and add one if it's red, and take one away if it's black. If the number is greater than zero, choose black. If it's less than zero choose red.

    If it's zero, just guess.
    I get that. You still have to keep red and black as separate mental categories, which is why it takes practice.
    Yep, not conceptually complex but an interesting and fun thing to do. Farooq's 32 is the PB record but that'll only stand for as long as it takes me to find a pack of cards. Apologies for arrogance. Serve me right if I flop now. It's been a while.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,875
    edited April 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    topherdawson said:

    If someone else has raised this, apologies, but does it not look likely that Johnson or his camp have leaked Sunak's green card, wife's tax affairs and so on? It seems to have been a very effective way to banjax Sunak's chances of being PM. Is banjax a word used outside Scotland by the way? It seems to have an unknown, perhaps Irish etymology.

    Yes, that was my first thought. Unprovable, but a sound working hypothesis.

    Ought to be “outwith Scotland” ;)

    On the etymology: no idea. All I can say is that it is a word I am familiar with. Often Scots have no idea that our vocabulary is specific to us, until someone points it out.
    Not Scots*. See my reply rather late ikn the previous thread. It's one of those words assimilated into Scots daily speak.

    *Edit: not originally, I mean. It is now ...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,741
    ping said:

    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.

    I'd agree. I'd guess most people are unhappy about energy prices, and there's nothing anyone in the UK can do, government, Bank of England, whoever.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,133
    ping said:

    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.

    We have a number of tools in the cabinet, though agreed that they can’t deal with it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,682
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Transplanting @Cyclefree ’s rather lovely tulips FPT.

    Cyclefree said:

    Tulip mania is IMHO entirely understandable.


    You're only saying that because you've already established a bull position. 😊

    If only. What that garden costs me in ready cash, not to mention hard physical labour .... well. Bending down and planting 000's of spring bulbs is not the work of a moment, I can tell you. I may not be able to run a marathon but my flexibility is that of a Chinese gymnast.

    I am so pleased with how it has turned out, not least because here there have been no squirrels to dig them all up. It was a running battle every year in London trying to outwit the local squirrels who seemed to view my garden as their local food bank.
    Also @kinabalu, that is in the Lakes. In London Eldest Son has taken over gardening duties and is showing promise. He is quite successfully growing avocados.
    Thought I didn't recognize it. Looks terrific anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,596
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The latest from Alastair Meeks, formerly of this parish. The first half is not quite up to his usual standard, being a fairly obvious statement of the risk of assuming that events are completely random. But he then leads on to Covid and Ukraine. Anyway, it's an renjoyable read, as his pieces always are.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/adventures-in-card-play-mistakes-with-maths-and-how-to-avoid-them-when-thinking-about-covid-19-and-126b356b921a

    It is an extremely poor article in which Meeks pontificates on a subject (Bayes Theorem) about which he characteristically knows nothing.

    I once tried to explain what a Fisher matrix was to Meeks ... I was told law is more important than mathematics.
    I had to stop reading when he said “I understand the maths, I really do”; I couldn’t risk tossing my phone at the Pyrenees due to his ignorance of the subject.
    Well, hang on. Take the R & C Are Dead situation where you are tossing a coin and telling me the outcome. When you get to the 90th heads in a row I am coming to conclusions about your honesty and/or the fairness of the coin. Surely what I am doing is updating my priors, which is exactly what Mr Meeks is correctly on about?
    Entirely different. A coin is far easier to rig than a shuffle. Meeks is talking about card games; the cards are already shuffled by the game. For anyone to rig them for exactly the same deal with another shuffle is beyond even belief.

    Unless we’re playing against “God”.
    But:

    https://aperiodical.com/2011/12/four-perfect-hands-an-event-never-seen-before-right/

    9 reports of "perfect" bridge deals. The assumption is not rigging, it's randomness on top of imperfect shuffling

    You need to update your priors

    ETA and the game *unshuffles* the cards. If you collect in hands at the end of a game of bridge they are partly sorted by suit.
    It is worth remembering that there aren't anywhere near as many hands of bridge as there are of different shuffles of the deck.

    Because each card is assigned to one of four hands, and the order they enter the hand is irrelevant.

    I can't be bothered to do the math, but I'd reckon that cuts the number of deals by at least ten orders of magnitude.
    It cuts it by way more than that; remember that in such calculations, the divisor it itself a factorial of the number of cards in the hand.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    - “Last night DeltaPoll found Labour with an 8% lead on the economy… “

    The funniest bits of that Deltapoll were these juicy tidbits:

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 20%
    LD 8%
    Grn 7%

    Scotland
    SNP 49%
    Lab 29%
    Con 15%
    LD 5%
    Grn 2%

    Wales
    Lab 56%
    PC 19%
    Con 13%
    Grn 6%
    LD 3%

    (Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday; Sample Size: 1,550; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th April 2022)

    And this before the economy implodes.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    fpt

    I've just started watching Servant Of The People - available on Channel 4.

    I have to say after 4 episodes I'm enjoying it. Comedy doesn't always translate well but it works for me. Vasyl (Zelensky) decides to take the bus to work much to the chagrin of the Sir Humphrey figure Yuri (who gives off a Harvey Keitel vibe). Eventually they get off the bus a little early and we see that it's been trailed by about 4 cars worth of bodyguards. Made me think of David Cameron. I liked this line:

    Vasyl - I'm the servant of the people now
    Yuri (aka Sir Humphrey) - I prefer to say manager

    They seem to average about one Putin joke per episode so far. Vasyl's parents are busy helping themselves to freebies now their son is the President and hope to arrange for their granddaughter to marry Prince Harry. Dad jokes about leaving mum for a teenage gymnast....

    Yes Minister isn't quite the right comparison really. It's hard to imagine the first episode of Yes Prime Minister in which the previous incumbent refuses to leave the office, demands vodka be brought to him and points a gun at Sir Humphrey. It's also a bit uncomfortable when they start talking about things like the Kennedy assassination. You also have the oligarchs generally seen from behind in darkened rooms eating caviar confused as to who Vasyl 'belongs' to.

    I do see some parallels with our own politics too. MPs expenses/corporate handouts/fealty to the rich.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,596
    edited April 2022
    And, on topic, inflation has various ways in which it hits the pocket, in addition to the obvious of prices rising faster than income. In the current circumstance we have significantly negative real interest rates, hitting anyone with savings (and, in due course, investments). And many defined benefit pension schemes contain a cap - commonly 5% - above which index-linking doesn’t apply. So many well-off pensioners who believe that their income is protected will be in for a surprise in April 2023.

    On the other hand, anyone with significant debt - most significantly the government, but also the mortgaged-to-the-hilt, will see the real value of their debt dwindle. Which might explain why government isn’t quite as worried as many people are.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    topherdawson said:

    If someone else has raised this, apologies, but does it not look likely that Johnson or his camp have leaked Sunak's green card, wife's tax affairs and so on? It seems to have been a very effective way to banjax Sunak's chances of being PM. Is banjax a word used outside Scotland by the way? It seems to have an unknown, perhaps Irish etymology.

    Yes, that was my first thought. Unprovable, but a sound working hypothesis.

    Ought to be “outwith Scotland” ;)

    On the etymology: no idea. All I can say is that it is a word I am familiar with. Often Scots have no idea that our vocabulary is specific to us, until someone points it out.
    Note that Truss was his predecessor as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, so might have been in a position to be privy to the information which he shared with officials when first appointed.

    There’s also the Saj, but he has his own green card issues.
    We know Johnson is a shit, but is Truss?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    StuartDickson said:

    topherdawson said:

    If someone else has raised this, apologies, but does it not look likely that Johnson or his camp have leaked Sunak's green card, wife's tax affairs and so on? It seems to have been a very effective way to banjax Sunak's chances of being PM. Is banjax a word used outside Scotland by the way? It seems to have an unknown, perhaps Irish etymology.

    Yes, that was my first thought. Unprovable, but a sound working hypothesis.

    Ought to be “outwith Scotland” ;)

    On the etymology: no idea. All I can say is that it is a word I am familiar with. Often Scots have no idea that our vocabulary is specific to us, until someone points it out.
    Not Scots*. See my reply rather late ikn the previous thread. It's one of those words assimilated into Scots daily speak.

    *Edit: not originally, I mean. It is now ...
    Yes, you had me fooled with that dsl link… until I clicked it! :)
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,523
    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    So I got to Ripoll and decided I wasn’t going to stay there. Nothing I could see wrong with the place, but it seemed too early to stop the day’s journey and I wanted to get closer to the volcano park. I looked at my map and picked out a town called Olot, much closer to where I was headed and only just under twenty miles away. But, being a Sunday, the public transport options didn’t look great. I’d have to catch either three buses covering about sixty miles, with some too close to call transfer times, or two buses in the evening and not arrive until after eight this evening.

    I decided, for the first time in about quarter of a century, to hitchhike. I set out on the ‘walk’ to Olot (that my phone said would take over six hours) with my thumb out. After about twenty minutes, and several cars speeding past, a minibus pulled in next to me. The window opened and the lady driving it asked where I was going (in English once we’d established my limited language skills) and I told her. She said “You are going the wrong way for me right now”, I tilted my head a little and tried to look confused. She said “I have to drive to xxx village first, then back to Ripoll, then to Olot. I won’t get there until three o’clock. Is that okay?”. I affirmed that it was more than okay and jumped in.

    I was the only passenger until we got back to Ripoll and we had a really lovely chat up to then. She’s Dutch and drives her route between the two places, stopping in lots of out of the way villages, six times a day. She wanted me to tell her everything
    about my holiday so far, and what my remaining vague plans were (and she loved the fact that they were so vague!).

    So I’m now in Olot. I’m sitting in a park square in the middle of town, drinking the last beer I bought this morning, and with half a mile to walk to the hotel I booked in the minibus. I’ve still got Olot of drinking time, Olot of restaurants to choose from, and Olot of fun to be had!

    I'm just loving these holiday updates. Sounds like you're having a truly amazing time.
    Thanks Robert! It’s the best holiday I’ve ever had, and I’m really enjoying sharing with you all as well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    BlancheLivermore said:

    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    So I got to Ripoll and decided I wasn’t going to stay there. Nothing I could see wrong with the place, but it seemed too early to stop the day’s journey and I wanted to get closer to the volcano park. I looked at my map and picked out a town called Olot, much closer to where I was headed and only just under twenty miles away. But, being a Sunday, the public transport options didn’t look great. I’d have to catch either three buses covering about sixty miles, with some too close to call transfer times, or two buses in the evening and not arrive until after eight this evening.

    I decided, for the first time in about quarter of a century, to hitchhike. I set out on the ‘walk’ to Olot (that my phone said would take over six hours) with my thumb out. After about twenty minutes, and several cars speeding past, a minibus pulled in next to me. The window opened and the lady driving it asked where I was going (in English once we’d established my limited language skills) and I told her. She said “You are going the wrong way for me right now”, I tilted my head a little and tried to look confused. She said “I have to drive to xxx village first, then back to Ripoll, then to Olot. I won’t get there until three o’clock. Is that okay?”. I affirmed that it was more than okay and jumped in.

    I was the only passenger until we got back to Ripoll and we had a really lovely chat up to then. She’s Dutch and drives her route between the two places, stopping in lots of out of the way villages, six times a day. She wanted me to tell her everything
    about my holiday so far, and what my remaining vague plans were (and she loved the fact that they were so vague!).

    So I’m now in Olot. I’m sitting in a park square in the middle of town, drinking the last beer I bought this morning, and with half a mile to walk to the hotel I booked in the minibus. I’ve still got Olot of drinking time, Olot of restaurants to choose from, and Olot of fun to be had!

    I'm just loving these holiday updates. Sounds like you're having a truly amazing time.
    Thanks Robert! It’s the best holiday I’ve ever had, and I’m really enjoying sharing with you all as well.
    The only issue with that comment is that my name's not Robert...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,082
    This is good...

    https://oec.world/en/tradle/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,082
    On topic, an interesting betting market would be something like “what will the rate of inflation be in December?”
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,523
    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    So I got to Ripoll and decided I wasn’t going to stay there. Nothing I could see wrong with the place, but it seemed too early to stop the day’s journey and I wanted to get closer to the volcano park. I looked at my map and picked out a town called Olot, much closer to where I was headed and only just under twenty miles away. But, being a Sunday, the public transport options didn’t look great. I’d have to catch either three buses covering about sixty miles, with some too close to call transfer times, or two buses in the evening and not arrive until after eight this evening.

    I decided, for the first time in about quarter of a century, to hitchhike. I set out on the ‘walk’ to Olot (that my phone said would take over six hours) with my thumb out. After about twenty minutes, and several cars speeding past, a minibus pulled in next to me. The window opened and the lady driving it asked where I was going (in English once we’d established my limited language skills) and I told her. She said “You are going the wrong way for me right now”, I tilted my head a little and tried to look confused. She said “I have to drive to xxx village first, then back to Ripoll, then to Olot. I won’t get there until three o’clock. Is that okay?”. I affirmed that it was more than okay and jumped in.

    I was the only passenger until we got back to Ripoll and we had a really lovely chat up to then. She’s Dutch and drives her route between the two places, stopping in lots of out of the way villages, six times a day. She wanted me to tell her everything
    about my holiday so far, and what my remaining vague plans were (and she loved the fact that they were so vague!).

    So I’m now in Olot. I’m sitting in a park square in the middle of town, drinking the last beer I bought this morning, and with half a mile to walk to the hotel I booked in the minibus. I’ve still got Olot of drinking time, Olot of restaurants to choose from, and Olot of fun to be had!

    I'm just loving these holiday updates. Sounds like you're having a truly amazing time.
    Thanks Robert! It’s the best holiday I’ve ever had, and I’m really enjoying sharing with you all as well.
    The only issue with that comment is that my name's not Robert...
    Whoops! Don’t know where that came from.. I guess I’m keen for a Robert’s approval!! I’ll blame it on typing while I walk in the sun after a few beers :wink:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    edited April 2022
    BlancheLivermore said:

    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    So I got to Ripoll and decided I wasn’t going to stay there. Nothing I could see wrong with the place, but it seemed too early to stop the day’s journey and I wanted to get closer to the volcano park. I looked at my map and picked out a town called Olot, much closer to where I was headed and only just under twenty miles away. But, being a Sunday, the public transport options didn’t look great. I’d have to catch either three buses covering about sixty miles, with some too close to call transfer times, or two buses in the evening and not arrive until after eight this evening.

    I decided, for the first time in about quarter of a century, to hitchhike. I set out on the ‘walk’ to Olot (that my phone said would take over six hours) with my thumb out. After about twenty minutes, and several cars speeding past, a minibus pulled in next to me. The window opened and the lady driving it asked where I was going (in English once we’d established my limited language skills) and I told her. She said “You are going the wrong way for me right now”, I tilted my head a little and tried to look confused. She said “I have to drive to xxx village first, then back to Ripoll, then to Olot. I won’t get there until three o’clock. Is that okay?”. I affirmed that it was more than okay and jumped in.

    I was the only passenger until we got back to Ripoll and we had a really lovely chat up to then. She’s Dutch and drives her route between the two places, stopping in lots of out of the way villages, six times a day. She wanted me to tell her everything
    about my holiday so far, and what my remaining vague plans were (and she loved the fact that they were so vague!).

    So I’m now in Olot. I’m sitting in a park square in the middle of town, drinking the last beer I bought this morning, and with half a mile to walk to the hotel I booked in the minibus. I’ve still got Olot of drinking time, Olot of restaurants to choose from, and Olot of fun to be had!

    I'm just loving these holiday updates. Sounds like you're having a truly amazing time.
    Thanks Robert! It’s the best holiday I’ve ever had, and I’m really enjoying sharing with you all as well.
    The only issue with that comment is that my name's not Robert...
    Whoops! Don’t know where that came from.. I guess I’m keen for a Robert’s approval!! I’ll blame it on typing while I walk in the sun after a few beers :wink:
    Then all is forgiven!

    And @rcs1000 is awesome anyway so I suppose I should be flattered that you think I'm him...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,987
    So I did the red/black thing in Python 10,000 times, and got mean and median of 30 correct guesses, with a max of 42(!) and a min of 26.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,133
    StuartDickson said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    topherdawson said:

    If someone else has raised this, apologies, but does it not look likely that Johnson or his camp have leaked Sunak's green card, wife's tax affairs and so on? It seems to have been a very effective way to banjax Sunak's chances of being PM. Is banjax a word used outside Scotland by the way? It seems to have an unknown, perhaps Irish etymology.

    Yes, that was my first thought. Unprovable, but a sound working hypothesis.

    Ought to be “outwith Scotland” ;)

    On the etymology: no idea. All I can say is that it is a word I am familiar with. Often Scots have no idea that our vocabulary is specific to us, until someone points it out.
    Note that Truss was his predecessor as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, so might have been in a position to be privy to the information which he shared with officials when first appointed.

    There’s also the Saj, but he has his own green card issues.
    We know Johnson is a shit, but is Truss?
    No idea.
    Just pointing out motive and possible opportunity.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ‘Prince Andrew ‘unlikely’ to move out of Queen Mother's £30m mansion despite money woes
    - The Duke of York is said to be set on staying at the Royal Lodge in Windsor, a 30-room property with an indoor pool which he moved into following the death of the Queen Mother in 2002’

    This story ain’t going away. If HMQ doesn’t kick him out, her successor will. She’d be wise to grab the nettle herself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,682
    rcs1000 said:

    So I did the red/black thing in Python 10,000 times, and got mean and median of 30 correct guesses, with a max of 42(!) and a min of 26.

    Taking all the romance out of it. :smile:

    Interesting though - I'd have guessed a bit higher than 30 as an average with that method.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Nigelb said:

    StuartDickson said:

    topherdawson said:

    If someone else has raised this, apologies, but does it not look likely that Johnson or his camp have leaked Sunak's green card, wife's tax affairs and so on? It seems to have been a very effective way to banjax Sunak's chances of being PM. Is banjax a word used outside Scotland by the way? It seems to have an unknown, perhaps Irish etymology.

    Yes, that was my first thought. Unprovable, but a sound working hypothesis.

    Ought to be “outwith Scotland” ;)

    On the etymology: no idea. All I can say is that it is a word I am familiar with. Often Scots have no idea that our vocabulary is specific to us, until someone points it out.
    Note that Truss was his predecessor as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, so might have been in a position to be privy to the information which he shared with officials when first appointed.

    There’s also the Saj, but he has his own green card issues.
    We know Johnson is a shit, but is Truss?
    No idea.
    Just pointing out motive and possible opportunity.
    That you (and I) have no idea whether or not the FAV for Next Con Leader is a shit or not must count as a minor triumph for the lady.

    I assume all Tories are shits, until proven otherwise.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    ‘Prince Andrew ‘unlikely’ to move out of Queen Mother's £30m mansion despite money woes
    - The Duke of York is said to be set on staying at the Royal Lodge in Windsor, a 30-room property with an indoor pool which he moved into following the death of the Queen Mother in 2002’

    This story ain’t going away. If HMQ doesn’t kick him out, her successor will. She’d be wise to grab the nettle herself.

    While I generally have no problem in kicking prince Andrew when he’s down…

    I’m not sure what else the queen is supposed to do with her properties? She can’t really rent them out privately and from what I can tell, none of the extended family have enough private income to pay a market rent.

    If he shouldn’t live there, who should?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    Wharton out (for about the third time...) but what a ball!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ping said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ‘Prince Andrew ‘unlikely’ to move out of Queen Mother's £30m mansion despite money woes
    - The Duke of York is said to be set on staying at the Royal Lodge in Windsor, a 30-room property with an indoor pool which he moved into following the death of the Queen Mother in 2002’

    This story ain’t going away. If HMQ doesn’t kick him out, her successor will. She’d be wise to grab the nettle herself.

    While I generally have no problem in kicking prince Andrew when he’s down…

    I’m not sure what else the queen is supposed to do with her properties? She can’t really rent them out privately and from what I can tell, none of the extended family have enough private income to pay a market rent.

    If he shouldn’t live there, who should?

    —
    Give it to the Treasury. Rishi could do with a few spare quid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    edited April 2022
    Something unusual about to happen at Kent, I think. Ben Compton looks set to carry his bat in both innings.

    (Now I've said that he'll be the last man out, of course!)

    List of times that's happened is here:

    http://awsstats.blogspot.com/2014/04/a-carried-bat-in-both-innings-for-one.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    Also, you know about Notts going to thrash everyone in Div 2 and go back to Div 1 and win the championship?

    I don't think Glamorgan got the memo. That was a thumping. More one-sided than the scorecard shows as they totally outplayed Notts all game.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,798
    edited April 2022
    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    GE2024 is going to be a repeat of GE2010 except in reverse
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,987
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So I did the red/black thing in Python 10,000 times, and got mean and median of 30 correct guesses, with a max of 42(!) and a min of 26.

    Taking all the romance out of it. :smile:

    Interesting though - I'd have guessed a bit higher than 30 as an average with that method.
    My coding could be a bit wonky mind. 
    import random
    import statistics

    deck = []

    for i in range(0,26):
        deck.append('r')
        deck.append('b')

    outcomes = []

    def DoDeck():
        random.shuffle(deck)

        count = 0

        correct = 0

        for card in deck:
            if count > 0:
                pick = 'r'
            elif count < 0:
                pick = 'b'
            else:
                pick = random.choice(['r', 'b'])

            if pick == card:
                correct += 1

            if card == 'r':
                count -= 1
            else:
                count += 1

        return correct

    for i in range(0, 10000):
        outcomes.append(DoDeck())

    print("Mean: ", statistics.mean(outcomes))
    print("Median: ", statistics.median(outcomes))
    print("Min: ", min(outcomes))
    print("Max: ", max(outcomes))
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    ping said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ‘Prince Andrew ‘unlikely’ to move out of Queen Mother's £30m mansion despite money woes
    - The Duke of York is said to be set on staying at the Royal Lodge in Windsor, a 30-room property with an indoor pool which he moved into following the death of the Queen Mother in 2002’

    This story ain’t going away. If HMQ doesn’t kick him out, her successor will. She’d be wise to grab the nettle herself.

    While I generally have no problem in kicking prince Andrew when he’s down…

    I’m not sure what else the queen is supposed to do with her properties? She can’t really rent them out privately and from what I can tell, none of the extended family have enough private income to pay a market rent.

    If he shouldn’t live there, who should?
    Plenty of the Crown Estate is rented out isn't it? Personally I'd take the whole lot into proper public ownership and pay those we still want to parade in public a wage rather similar to repertory actors, and give them a bit of live-in accommodation in some part of it or other as a bonus. Anything else they can earn in the usual way. Sell off the various farm estates to workers co-ops. I've gone full social republican. I've had enough of the lot of them.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,687
    BlancheLivermore said:

    So I got to Ripoll and decided I wasn’t going to stay there. Nothing I could see wrong with the place, but it seemed too early to stop the day’s journey and I wanted to get closer to the volcano park. I looked at my map and picked out a town called Olot, much closer to where I was headed and only just under twenty miles away. But, being a Sunday, the public transport options didn’t look great. I’d have to catch either three buses covering about sixty miles, with some too close to call transfer times, or two buses in the evening and not arrive until after eight this evening.

    I decided, for the first time in about quarter of a century, to hitchhike. I set out on the ‘walk’ to Olot (that my phone said would take over six hours) with my thumb out. After about twenty minutes, and several cars speeding past, a minibus pulled in next to me. The window opened and the lady driving it asked where I was going (in English once we’d established my limited language skills) and I told her. She said “You are going the wrong way for me right now”, I tilted my head a little and tried to look confused. She said “I have to drive to xxx village first, then back to Ripoll, then to Olot. I won’t get there until three o’clock. Is that okay?”. I affirmed that it was more than okay and jumped in.

    I was the only passenger until we got back to Ripoll and we had a really lovely chat up to then. She’s Dutch and drives her route between the two places, stopping in lots of out of the way villages, six times a day. She wanted me to tell her everything
    about my holiday so far, and what my remaining vague plans were (and she loved the fact that they were so vague!).

    So I’m now in Olot. I’m sitting in a park square in the middle of town, drinking the last beer I bought this morning, and with half a mile to walk to the hotel I booked in the minibus. I’ve still got Olot of drinking time, Olot of restaurants to choose from, and Olot of fun to be had!

    Last time I gave a lift to a hitch-hiker he claimed he was on his way home to Inverness from Aviemore after a meeting with his solicitor.

    Didn't have much to say after that.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,769
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    GE2024 is going to be a repeat of GE2010 except in reverse

    Or not a repeat then

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,682
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    GE2024 is going to be a repeat of GE2010 except in reverse

    Sir Keir and Sir Ed in the Rose Garden?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    StuartDickson said:

    - “Last night DeltaPoll found Labour with an 8% lead on the economy… “

    The funniest bits of that Deltapoll were these juicy tidbits:

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 20%
    LD 8%
    Grn 7%

    Scotland
    SNP 49%
    Lab 29%
    Con 15%
    LD 5%
    Grn 2%

    Wales
    Lab 56%
    PC 19%
    Con 13%
    Grn 6%
    LD 3%

    (Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday; Sample Size: 1,550; Fieldwork: 13th - 14th April 2022)

    And this before the economy implodes.

    The Tories are hated in Scotland, Wales and London. Not a particularly new phenomenon.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    GE2024 is going to be a repeat of GE2010 except in reverse

    So like 0102EG?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,875
    mwadams said:

    ping said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ‘Prince Andrew ‘unlikely’ to move out of Queen Mother's £30m mansion despite money woes
    - The Duke of York is said to be set on staying at the Royal Lodge in Windsor, a 30-room property with an indoor pool which he moved into following the death of the Queen Mother in 2002’

    This story ain’t going away. If HMQ doesn’t kick him out, her successor will. She’d be wise to grab the nettle herself.

    While I generally have no problem in kicking prince Andrew when he’s down…

    I’m not sure what else the queen is supposed to do with her properties? She can’t really rent them out privately and from what I can tell, none of the extended family have enough private income to pay a market rent.

    If he shouldn’t live there, who should?
    Plenty of the Crown Estate is rented out isn't it? Personally I'd take the whole lot into proper public ownership and pay those we still want to parade in public a wage rather similar to repertory actors, and give them a bit of live-in accommodation in some part of it or other as a bonus. Anything else they can earn in the usual way. Sell off the various farm estates to workers co-ops. I've gone full social republican. I've had enough of the lot of them.
    Quite, and do a MBO of the C of E. The Archbish can become head. He can still officiate at Royal events, with the limited core RF, in rotation with the Cardinal of Westminster, Moderator of the Kirk, etc.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,682
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So I did the red/black thing in Python 10,000 times, and got mean and median of 30 correct guesses, with a max of 42(!) and a min of 26.

    Taking all the romance out of it. :smile:

    Interesting though - I'd have guessed a bit higher than 30 as an average with that method.
    My coding could be a bit wonky mind. 
    import random
    import statistics

    deck = []

    for i in range(0,26):
        deck.append('r')
        deck.append('b')

    outcomes = []

    def DoDeck():
        random.shuffle(deck)

        count = 0

        correct = 0

        for card in deck:
            if count > 0:
                pick = 'r'
            elif count < 0:
                pick = 'b'
            else:
                pick = random.choice(['r', 'b'])

            if pick == card:
                correct += 1

            if card == 'r':
                count -= 1
            else:
                count += 1

        return correct

    for i in range(0, 10000):
        outcomes.append(DoDeck())

    print("Mean: ", statistics.mean(outcomes))
    print("Median: ", statistics.median(outcomes))
    print("Min: ", min(outcomes))
    print("Max: ", max(outcomes))
    I wish I could audit that! But assuming it's right, so '30' is the par score for logical picking.

    Does this mean nobody should be able to consistently beat that?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,043
    StuartDickson said:

    topherdawson said:

    If someone else has raised this, apologies, but does it not look likely that Johnson or his camp have leaked Sunak's green card, wife's tax affairs and so on? It seems to have been a very effective way to banjax Sunak's chances of being PM. Is banjax a word used outside Scotland by the way? It seems to have an unknown, perhaps Irish etymology.

    Yes, that was my first thought. Unprovable, but a sound working hypothesis.

    Ought to be “outwith Scotland” ;)

    On the etymology: no idea. All I can say is that it is a word I am familiar with. Often Scots have no idea that our vocabulary is specific to us, until someone points it out.
    In the UK I’ve heard it mainly from Geordies; pretty sure it originates in Ireland
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    tlg86 said:

    This is good...

    https://oec.world/en/tradle/

    Got it in five.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,987
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Ukraine said hello.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,591
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Fiscal drag only affects those getting pay rises. I think many are going to be getting sub-inflationary ones.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Re @TSE’s thought processes (and thanks for the article), a few things:

    1. On inflation, it’s entirely possible that inflation levels fall next year simply because the comparables become a lot tougher. The inflation figure is a growth figure year on year. Even if prices remain high, if they don’t grow, the inflation rate will come down. That’s why - and I’d have to check the latest figures - energy inflation rates for most European countries in 2023 were deemed to be zero to low growth because the price reset had happened in 2022;

    2. Given the volatility over the past 12 months on the opinion polls, it would be a fool for someone now to be able to predict the next GE results, especially given an opposition leader who doesn’t seem particularly loved nor whom anyone has much of a clue what he stands for. The polls are still determined by what the Government does; the Opposition is not setting the agenda in any form whatsoever;

    3. Inflation is a tax in one way but it’s a plus in another. In a country with high consumer debt levels, and particularly with many people holding mortgages (as is the U.K.), inflation can be a big plus given if deflates the value of the debt. Much is said about the 70s but what is often forgotten is many homeowners made their fortunes as inflation wiped out the cost of their mortgages.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,798
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Fiscal drag only affects those getting pay rises. I think many are going to be getting sub-inflationary ones.
    That becomes triple whammy for some. Sub inflation rise, plus fiscal drag plus inflation out striping that rise. My point was about visibility, high inflation universally effects everybody and seen by everybody in very clear demonstrable ways, hence why it is can only harm a governments ratings. Its not only effecting some people / even those effected don't actually realise it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,591
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Foxy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Fiscal drag only affects those getting pay rises. I think many are going to be getting sub-inflationary ones.
    That becomes triple whammy for some. Sub inflation rise, plus fiscal drag plus inflation out striping that rise. My point was about visibility, high inflation universally effects everybody and seen by everybody in very clear demonstrable ways, hence why it is can only harm a governments ratings.
    Pretty certain that I am getting a real terms 5% pay cut this year on my NHS earnings. It doesnt help retention.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,798
    edited April 2022
    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
    I would say it is basically impossible to keep people happy if inflation is running at 8-10%. Today, no western country is able to grow their economy at that sort of rate to enable people to get pay rises etc to keep pace with it. And the government of the day will then be tagged as incompetent because they allowed this to happen and aren't able to do anything about it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,559
    ping said:

    StuartDickson said:

    ‘Prince Andrew ‘unlikely’ to move out of Queen Mother's £30m mansion despite money woes
    - The Duke of York is said to be set on staying at the Royal Lodge in Windsor, a 30-room property with an indoor pool which he moved into following the death of the Queen Mother in 2002’

    This story ain’t going away. If HMQ doesn’t kick him out, her successor will. She’d be wise to grab the nettle herself.

    While I generally have no problem in kicking prince Andrew when he’s down…

    I’m not sure what else the queen is supposed to do with her properties? She can’t really rent them out privately and from what I can tell, none of the extended family have enough private income to pay a market rent.

    If he shouldn’t live there, who should?
    He also owns the lease (55 years left).

    And I am sure she’d be criticised for buying him out at market value
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,043
    Some research says that banjaxed is probably a variant of banjoed, which comes from banjo, a 19th century word for the musical instrument, which itself derives from the Portuguese bandurra - another stringed instrument

    And this in turn ultimate derives from the Ancient Greek pandura of the 4th century BC - a form of lute

    So when you say “god I got banjaxed last night” you are summoning up the shades of Old Athens, and Aristotle in a symposium

    Love a bit of etymology
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    ping said:

    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.

    Excellent point. A lot is caused by supply chain issues. Then you have the high amount of Chinese demand for certain goods. And then energy. Raising interest rates does nothing for any of them bar hurt your economy.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,798
    edited April 2022
    MrEd said:

    ping said:

    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.

    Excellent point. A lot is caused by supply chain issues. Then you have the high amount of Chinese demand for certain goods. And then energy. Raising interest rates does nothing for any of them bar hurt your economy.

    Its even worse, the usual lever to pull when inflation is increasing is to raise interest rates, but far too many people are over-leveraged with mortgages where they have never paid historic normal level of interest on them. The housing market has risen on lack of supply and the fact you can get a mortgage with bugger all interest rate. If the BoE was to ramp up interest rates to 3%, we would start seeing masses of defaults.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,591
    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
    I was quite young in the Seventies, but the Callaghan government had brought inflation down to 10% from a high when Labour took office of near 27%, so in the context of the times was under control.

    It was the collapse of his 5% policy after the Ford workers got 17% that led to the Winter of Discontent.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
    I would say it is basically impossible to keep people happy if inflation is running at 8-10%. Today, no western country is able to grow their economy at that sort of rate to enable people to get pay rises etc to keep pace with it. And the government of the day will then be tagged as incompetent because they allowed this to happen and aren't able to do anything about it.
    Pay increases are determined more by corporate profitability, at least in an economy with a high degree of private sector jobs. One of the major issues pre-pandemic was that corporates share of the wealth pie was growing viz a viz labour. It might be argued it would be good if they have some of that gain back, especially as Governments - in cases such as the U.K. - have subsidised businesses U.K. up until recently with reductions in corporation tax rates and / or tax credits (if you don’t believe me, look at how corporate margins have been expanding over the past decade).

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MrEd said:

    ping said:

    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.

    Excellent point. A lot is caused by supply chain issues. Then you have the high amount of Chinese demand for certain goods. And then energy. Raising interest rates does nothing for any of them bar hurt your economy.

    Its even worse, the usual lever to pull when inflation is increasing is to raise interest rates, but far too many people are over-leveraged with mortgages where they have never paid historic normal level of interest on them. The housing market has risen on lack of supply and the fact you can get a mortgage with bugger all interest rate. If the BoE was to ramp up interest rates to 3%, we would start seeing masses of defaults.
    Exactly, which is why I’m sceptical we will see interest rates rise by any significant amount (and, by that, I mean anything above 2%). Too many consumers would go back busy. Bill Gross of Pimco states the US economy can’t hear anything more than 3% interest rates for the same reason.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MrEd said:

    ping said:

    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.

    Excellent point. A lot is caused by supply chain issues. Then you have the high amount of Chinese demand for certain goods. And then energy. Raising interest rates does nothing for any of them bar hurt your economy.

    Its even worse, the usual lever to pull when inflation is increasing is to raise interest rates, but far too many people are over-leveraged with mortgages where they have never paid historic normal level of interest on them. The housing market has risen on lack of supply and the fact you can get a mortgage with bugger all interest rate. If the BoE was to ramp up interest rates to 3%, we would start seeing masses of defaults.
    Exactly, which is why I’m sceptical we will see interest rates rise by any significant amount (and, by that, I mean anything above 2%). Too many consumers would go back busy. Bill Gross of Pimco states the US economy can’t hear anything more than 3% interest rates for the same reason.
    Jesus, my typing is bad today. I meant bust.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
    I was quite young in the Seventies, but the Callaghan government had brought inflation down to 10% from a high when Labour took office of near 27%, so in the context of the times was under control.

    It was the collapse of his 5% policy after the Ford workers got 17% that led to the Winter of Discontent.
    Which goes back to the point - Callaghan was popular when he was deemed to be in control. It is the loss of competence that dooms Governments.

    (I’d argue the same with Major in the 1990s - it was his perceived incompetence, than sleaze, that doomed him).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
    I was quite young in the Seventies, but the Callaghan government had brought inflation down to 10% from a high when Labour took office of near 27%, so in the context of the times was under control.

    It was the collapse of his 5% policy after the Ford workers got 17% that led to the Winter of Discontent.
    Which goes back to the point - Callaghan was popular when he was deemed to be in control. It is the loss of competence that dooms Governments.

    (I’d argue the same with Major in the 1990s - it was his perceived incompetence, than sleaze, that doomed him).
    Although Johnson has one big advantage over both of those governments - a large majority.

    Would Major have given the same impression of drift with a majority of 77? Arguably not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,591
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
    I was quite young in the Seventies, but the Callaghan government had brought inflation down to 10% from a high when Labour took office of near 27%, so in the context of the times was under control.

    It was the collapse of his 5% policy after the Ford workers got 17% that led to the Winter of Discontent.
    Which goes back to the point - Callaghan was popular when he was deemed to be in control. It is the loss of competence that dooms Governments.

    (I’d argue the same with Major in the 1990s - it was his perceived incompetence, than sleaze, that doomed him).
    I am not sure what point you are trying to make. It was because inflation was under control that Callaghan appeared to be in control. The two were the same.

    Inflation hits government popularity, whether Johnson or Biden.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,798
    edited April 2022
    EU anti-fraud body accuses Marine Le Pen of embezzlement
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/17/eu-anti-fraud-body-accuses-marine-le-pen-france-election

    I don't believe you can become French President unless you have been accused of financial impropriety can you?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,509
    Happy Easter!

    Your own Personal Jesus
    Someone to hear your prayers
    Someone who cares
    Your own Personal Jesus
    Someone to hear your prayers
    Someone who's there
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,870
    edited April 2022
    Alastair Meeks's piece about how Twitter echo chambers develop is worth reading IMO.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-city-and-the-tower-the-scattering-of-the-internet-bf28fdfb403
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,163
    EPG said:

    ping said:

    The main problem with the current bout of inflation is that is isn’t wage/price driven.

    If it was it would be easy - if a little painful - to fix.

    We have the worst of all possible inflations. It’s external and we have no tools to deal with it.

    I'd agree. I'd guess most people are unhappy about energy prices, and there's nothing anyone in the UK can do, government, Bank of England, whoever.
    But the government introduced the ridiculous "price cap" which gave the impression they could.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,239
    Most pressing though is deciding on Root’s successor. The first Test of the summer begins at Lord’s on June 2 and it is unlikely a permanent head coach will be in place by then so it will be for Key to make that big call. Ben Stokes is the most obvious candidate although Key will consider other options including Stuart Broad, Sam Billings, Rory Burns, Moeen Ali and Jos Buttler.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rob-key-ecb-confirm-former-england-batsman-is-new-manager-director-of-mens-cricket-vkzklqh77
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,798
    edited April 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Most pressing though is deciding on Root’s successor. The first Test of the summer begins at Lord’s on June 2 and it is unlikely a permanent head coach will be in place by then so it will be for Key to make that big call. Ben Stokes is the most obvious candidate although Key will consider other options including Stuart Broad, Sam Billings, Rory Burns, Moeen Ali and Jos Buttler.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rob-key-ecb-confirm-former-england-batsman-is-new-manager-director-of-mens-cricket-vkzklqh77

    Ali has retired from test cricket. I am not sure how you can pick any of the others when they aren't good enough to play in the team (or in Broad case can't play every game*) when England don't have the luxury of 10 other world class players in which having a great captain could be accommodated.

    * he would also be an awful pick for captain. If you think Root use of review system was bad, Broad would have used all the reviews in his first 3 overs.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
    I was quite young in the Seventies, but the Callaghan government had brought inflation down to 10% from a high when Labour took office of near 27%, so in the context of the times was under control.

    It was the collapse of his 5% policy after the Ford workers got 17% that led to the Winter of Discontent.
    I used to go shopping with my gran in the late 70s and she used to have "last week's" price for things written on her shopping list. She'd build up a stock cupboard of tins and wotnot whenever they were a good price.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,682
    MrEd said:

    Re @TSE’s thought processes (and thanks for the article), a few things:

    1. On inflation, it’s entirely possible that inflation levels fall next year simply because the comparables become a lot tougher. The inflation figure is a growth figure year on year. Even if prices remain high, if they don’t grow, the inflation rate will come down. That’s why - and I’d have to check the latest figures - energy inflation rates for most European countries in 2023 were deemed to be zero to low growth because the price reset had happened in 2022;

    2. Given the volatility over the past 12 months on the opinion polls, it would be a fool for someone now to be able to predict the next GE results, especially given an opposition leader who doesn’t seem particularly loved nor whom anyone has much of a clue what he stands for. The polls are still determined by what the Government does; the Opposition is not setting the agenda in any form whatsoever;

    3. Inflation is a tax in one way but it’s a plus in another. In a country with high consumer debt levels, and particularly with many people holding mortgages (as is the U.K.), inflation can be a big plus given if deflates the value of the debt. Much is said about the 70s but what is often forgotten is many homeowners made their fortunes as inflation wiped out the cost of their mortgages.

    Re 2, I know "only a fool would predict ..." is mainly a turn of phrase but the thing is, betting and pundit wise, you have to form a view if you want to be a star in the firmament. My current forecast is Labour a few short of a majority.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    ydoethur said:

    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Inflation is the absolutely worst thing for any government, as there isn't very much they can do about it without massive other negative knock-on effects. While at the same time, it is visible every day to everybody, food, fuel, etc, rather than for instance the use of fiscal drag in their taxes where most people don't realise a bit more tax has been taken each year in real terms.

    Not necessarily.

    Go back to the 70s and look at the elections in those inflationary years. It wasn’t inflation per se that determined the result but views on Government competence.

    Callaghan’s Government probably would have won an election called in late 1978 even given inflation rates were high. What killed its chances was that the Winter of Discontent showed a Government that had lost control of how to run the country. The same goes for Heath in February 1974.

    This also isn’t a 1070s style inflation situation - it’s actually more akin to the 50s US situation, which also saw inflation post WW2/the Korea war but which still managed to post healthy growth and not yet things spiral.
    I was quite young in the Seventies, but the Callaghan government had brought inflation down to 10% from a high when Labour took office of near 27%, so in the context of the times was under control.

    It was the collapse of his 5% policy after the Ford workers got 17% that led to the Winter of Discontent.
    Which goes back to the point - Callaghan was popular when he was deemed to be in control. It is the loss of competence that dooms Governments.

    (I’d argue the same with Major in the 1990s - it was his perceived incompetence, than sleaze, that doomed him).
    Although Johnson has one big advantage over both of those governments - a large majority.

    Would Major have given the same impression of drift with a majority of 77? Arguably not.
    What if the other 30-40 people were from the headbanging end of the party though?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,239
    Farooq said:

    Shocking misuse of apostrophe in the article TSE. I've come to expect better from you :lol:

    Oops, I'm blaming autocorrect.

    Except I wrote this on a MacBook.

    Yes, I'll blame tiredness for that Brexiteers apostrophe.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So I did the red/black thing in Python 10,000 times, and got mean and median of 30 correct guesses, with a max of 42(!) and a min of 26.

    Taking all the romance out of it. :smile:

    Interesting though - I'd have guessed a bit higher than 30 as an average with that method.
    My coding could be a bit wonky mind. 
    import random
    import statistics

    deck = []

    for i in range(0,26):
        deck.append('r')
        deck.append('b')

    outcomes = []

    def DoDeck():
        random.shuffle(deck)

        count = 0

        correct = 0

        for card in deck:
            if count > 0:
                pick = 'r'
            elif count < 0:
                pick = 'b'
            else:
                pick = random.choice(['r', 'b'])

            if pick == card:
                correct += 1

            if card == 'r':
                count -= 1
            else:
                count += 1

        return correct

    for i in range(0, 10000):
        outcomes.append(DoDeck())

    print("Mean: ", statistics.mean(outcomes))
    print("Median: ", statistics.median(outcomes))
    print("Min: ", min(outcomes))
    print("Max: ", max(outcomes))
    This site is so nerdy, I love it
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