Starmer’s the one with most at stake in the May 5th elections – politicalbetting.com
Starmer’s the one with most at stake in the May 5th elections – politicalbetting.com
Just 4 weeks from today we will be analyzing and processing the whole range of election results that are being voted on the day before.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside
What makes you sure Boris will get a better month to win in what remains of this parliamentary calendar than this June? If the polls go bad for him he won’t even survive as PM will he? The party may agree with Boris judgement catching Labour unready and untrusted this June is too good an option to gamble away by waiting it out for stagflation, recession, fuel poverty, covid and other enquiries to bounce Tories back to popularity over the coming years? Is it so plainly obvious Labour will now become less popular and less credible as government in waiting as each month ticks by tick tock toll times up?
How can your analysis discount as unlikely June election, on back of better than expected real mid term election votes. ?
FPT
Yup, that was the Mayor Chippy Tits factor, as this story broke this week.
See this thread for an explainer, Everton FC costing Labour votes.
https://twitter.com/MattODigs/status/1511453926633218058
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPvprtAWQAI5jmK?format=jpg&name=large
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1512376064747712514
@DarthPutinKGB
·
2h
How it works with events like Kramatorsk.
1. It never happened.
2. They were all Nazis so deserved what didn't happen
3. NATO/Soros/Ukraine staged it
4. What didn't happen to all the Nazis who deserved it/actors who staged it was a biolab.
5. What about Iraq
Repeat.
Starmer really ought to see Labour have a clear lead on NEV and be making significant gains in Wales and London and ideally Scotland too if he is going to become PM.
With all councils up in London in May, Labour would certainly need to gain Wandsworth, where all MPs are Labour and Barnet and Westminster, which have seats in the top 100 Labour target seats to suggest Starmer is heading for No 10
Unfortunately the timing is not good as I am in the World Snooker Qualifiers yesterday, today and the next three days. Ten minute breaks twice a day.
Best value in sport £10 for 15 hrs sport per day, Or £40 for all 6 days.
Bargain.
https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3173467/shanghai-coronavirus-lockdown-corgi-beaten-death
Greene +2.5 frames 11/10
Writing on a missile dropped near Kramatorsk station reads: 'For the children'
I think Labour will do also well in the Northern Met districts (some of which like Trafford the Tories could see their worst ever performance) although Kirklees will possibly be the only Labour gain (from NOC).
Elsewhere though Labour could easily fall flat/underperform although they should get a couple of successes in the South in Worthing and Southampton where Starmer is most likely to pop up on May 6.
I haven't done the maths across England but I'm not expecting the Tories to lose more than 200 seats.
Pergamom (actual: Pergamum or Pergamon) is half-way down TSEs favourite memes of stepmoms and dockyard hookers.
And then it gets on to Aphrodisiás...
2 Green Gains from Conservatives
2 Lib Dem Gains, one from Ind and one from Conservatives
1 Conservative gain from Labour
4 Labour holds.
May elections are mainly mets, london councils, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and a scattering of districts in England.
Is there a table of existing councillors by party to see what the starting comparison should be?
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
If they wanted to involve the West I'd think they'd try to hit Western weapon supplies for Ukraine while they were in Poland.
Good to see that the SAM system from Slovakia has been delivered, and Polish tanks will be sent. Hopefully we'll hear in a few days of further deliveries happening today.
"Never again" is sounding increasingly hollow. I know there are arguments against becoming directly militarily involved, but I can't understand why we're still shovelling vast amounts of cash to Russia.
Top class trolling Mike.
Anyhoo, this particular majestic Atlantic salmon is not rising to the risible, badly-tied chalk-stream fly. I only popped along to observe that global food inflation was 34% in March. Ouch!
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512397289289097221
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3)
Macron (EC-RE): 58%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42%
...
+/- vs. 28 - 31 March
Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022
Sample size: 1,783"
The old view that engaging with and trading with them would gradually bring them into what we would regard as a more democratic or at least less despotic position has been shown to be a failure in most cases. To be fair, I think it wasn't an unreasonable view twenty or even ten years ago, and for a while it seemed to working relatively well (in China, even in Russia, for example), but we're going to have to rethink it all.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bohdan_Stashynsky etc etc...
To Putin, this was about re-establishing the bits of the Soviet Union he liked.
No other pollster throughout the cycle has that high a figure . Other recent polls have that around 32% . Interestingly it seems pollsters based outside of France tend to show a higher far right score .
The restructuring of global energy markets, the tech sector/brain drain etc. are going to have effects for generations. It's maybe not commensurate with the slaughter and abuse we are seeing (and I hope that one day the guilty are brought to justice, even if many years later) but these "fuck you" actions from Russia are not as untouchable as they may have believed.
Woman: You know the one I mean, always hanging around with Keir Sharma and talking crap
Bloke: Keir Who?
Woman: Keir Sharma
Bloke: You mean Keir Starmer
Woman: Oh yeah
Bloke: Ah, the northern bird
Woman: Yeah, that one
And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
Dan Hodges tweeting that Treasury refusing to comment on Green Card means the answer is he had such a card whilst CoE.
He's done.
He could face a jail sentence carrying a maximum term of seven years for each count.
Anyway as he won, as he keeps telling us, in 2020 he is ineligible in 2024 no?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
It looks like the narrowing we saw at the outbreak of Putin's war on Ukraine has dropped out of the equation and we're back to where we were, albeit not yet seeing the occasional double digit leads as we did during the height of partygate.
I'm not really sure how in the current situation the tories intend to turn this around. Boris Johnson seems to have a wow factor with some floating voters but during the early Ukraine crisis he wasn't under negative scrutiny as he will be in the build up to the General Election. So I return to the question: how will the tories turn this around?
I don't think they can unless they change leader and that's not now likely. They are heading to lose power after 14 years of holding the keys to No. 10.
a) I looked up to see if there was a double taxation agreement with India as you asked. There is. I tried reading it and gave up because I got to the point where I couldn't be arsed (it is bad enough I have had to read the Spanish and Swiss ones) but I'm guessing it is pretty standard.
b) Did you see my post towards the end of the last thread. Between us we appear to have wasted a lot of words as we were talking about different things. I was talking about company vs self employment you were talking about company vs employment. I actually agree with everything you said on company vs employment.
There have always been commentators like Ann Coulter or Al Franken that have earned a living writing books about how people on the other side of the spectrum were evil and terrible and liars etc. And they existed on both sides of the political spectrum.
And these people go back DECADES. They may have been amplified by social media and the Internet and cable TV. But you can back to the 70s and see people getting books published that spout crazy conspiracy nonsense about their political opponents
But there has always been a belief that votes in ballot boxes counted. Ultimately, you can bitch and moan about how your opponent got there, but there was an acceptance that the votes mattered.
Until 2020: when the President asked for people to 'find votes' for him. And then because other (ordinarily sensible) politicians were scared of the "base", they didn't condemn him.
This is how democracy dies. Or civil war starts.
And neither of those are good things.
If Putin can hang on until 2024, a whole load of fruit is headed his way.
Anti-Le Pen voters have high motivation to turn out in the second round. Anti-Macron voters do not.
Person responsible for reviewing the tax laws in such situations? Rishi.
Lives near Wakefield - check
I would be surprised if its anyone else.
Of course I'm drawing on Trump/Brexit/Johnson effects and the ability of certain right wingers to draw out the low propensity voters in the anglosphere. Yes, she's not managed it so far but.. a little momentum leads to a Le Pen vote being more social acceptable and a little more momentum. Before you know it your low information voters have turned.
...the highly contagious BA.2 subvariant is contributing to a new wave in some places, especially in the Northeast.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/08/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#cases-are-spiking-in-new-york-city-and-washington-dc
It’s good to remind us that not everyone pores over the minutia of politics in the way we do
@XSovietNews
Armed soldiers were removed from guarding Zhirinovsky when Putin came to pay respects.
https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/1512400456747737098
This kills the “never again” mantra dead. Kind of worry this sets a precedent for the move into other places now 😕
The best thing for the West now is regime change to the Novarny/Kasparov grouping and the West to embrace them and not play Cold War with it.
An equivalent would be how South Africa changed with release of Mandala?
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/
I'm also flying to plague Island the UK tomorrow.
I’d be more worried if Macrons strong voter group were younger people , as it is he has a huge lead in over 65s when matched against Le Pen and that’s the group who are much more likely to vote in their droves .
If elections are always about the economy (at the end of the day), are people really going to vote Tory when they’re experiencing a direct hit on wages / cost of living / etc