Starmer’s the one with most at stake in the May 5th elections – politicalbetting.com
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Starmer’s the one with most at stake in the May 5th elections – politicalbetting.com
Just 4 weeks from today we will be analyzing and processing the whole range of election results that are being voted on the day before.
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Unlike Starmerbigjohnowls said:1st
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Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.
Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside1 -
Absolutely. All the pressure is on Starmer and LAB.2
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Unlikely? I have it nailed on.HYUFD said:
Unlikely unless the Tories had a big lead on NEV as May's Tories did in the 2017 local electionsMoonRabbit said:
So if May is good set of results, suggesting Starmer not yet on way to number ten, will number ten realise This June is the best month for them to win an election in what remains of this parliamentary term, so call that election?HYUFD said:
High Peak is 5th on the Labour target list. They really should have won the seat last night on UNS.Farooq said:
The Conservatives lost all the seats that they contested yesterday, apart from that one, which looks better for them then you think because it was a by election in a multi-member seat. In which they finished first last time.Jamesgraves said:
The Tories have been performing very well in real elections though under Johnson such as last night's by election in High Peak where the Conservatives trounced Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:Johnson has been just as terrible as Corbyn would have been
The Tories could do well at the local elections and tie with Labour like in 2018. Labour aren't even certain to gain any London councils.
You need better evidence than that for your claim.
The Tory losses went to the LDs not Labour.
Labour certainly will need to do better in May than they did last night to suggest Starmer is heading for No 10
What makes you sure Boris will get a better month to win in what remains of this parliamentary calendar than this June? If the polls go bad for him he won’t even survive as PM will he? The party may agree with Boris judgement catching Labour unready and untrusted this June is too good an option to gamble away by waiting it out for stagflation, recession, fuel poverty, covid and other enquiries to bounce Tories back to popularity over the coming years? Is it so plainly obvious Labour will now become less popular and less credible as government in waiting as each month ticks by tick tock toll times up?
How can your analysis discount as unlikely June election, on back of better than expected real mid term election votes. ?0 -
You may be alone on PB posting pro Corbyn crazy stuff and funny things from “stats for lefties” web site, but it is still fair Mike gives you your own thread to play in, like giving a 4 year old a sandpit to play in. 🙂bigjohnowls said:Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.
Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside1 -
I pointed out that was thanks to Joe Anderson, Corbyn's mate.bigjohnowls said:Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.
Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside
FPT
Yup, that was the Mayor Chippy Tits factor, as this story broke this week.
See this thread for an explainer, Everton FC costing Labour votes.
https://twitter.com/MattODigs/status/15114539266332180582 -
Brutal carton on China's response to COVID:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPvprtAWQAI5jmK?format=jpg&name=large0 -
Just like with MH17, pro-Kremlin bloggers posted footage of what they said was a Russian attack on Kramatorsk – then deleted them once the civilian toll was clear
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15123760647477125142 -
Darth Putin
@DarthPutinKGB
·
2h
How it works with events like Kramatorsk.
1. It never happened.
2. They were all Nazis so deserved what didn't happen
3. NATO/Soros/Ukraine staged it
4. What didn't happen to all the Nazis who deserved it/actors who staged it was a biolab.
5. What about Iraq
Repeat.2 -
Indeed.
Starmer really ought to see Labour have a clear lead on NEV and be making significant gains in Wales and London and ideally Scotland too if he is going to become PM.
With all councils up in London in May, Labour would certainly need to gain Wandsworth, where all MPs are Labour and Barnet and Westminster, which have seats in the top 100 Labour target seats to suggest Starmer is heading for No 100 -
Mike is a good chap.MoonRabbit said:
You may be alone on PB posting pro Corbyn crazy stuff and funny things from “stats for lefties” web site, but it is still fair Mike gives you your own thread to play in, like giving a 4 year old a sandpit to play in. 🙂bigjohnowls said:Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.
Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside
Unfortunately the timing is not good as I am in the World Snooker Qualifiers yesterday, today and the next three days. Ten minute breaks twice a day.
Best value in sport £10 for 15 hrs sport per day, Or £40 for all 6 days.
Bargain.5 -
Unless the Tories actually win the local elections and regain a poll lead there is zero chance of Boris calling a June general election. As the odds are he would not only lose his majority but No 10 tooMoonRabbit said:
Unlikely? I have it nailed on.HYUFD said:
Unlikely unless the Tories had a big lead on NEV as May's Tories did in the 2017 local electionsMoonRabbit said:
So if May is good set of results, suggesting Starmer not yet on way to number ten, will number ten realise This June is the best month for them to win an election in what remains of this parliamentary term, so call that election?HYUFD said:
High Peak is 5th on the Labour target list. They really should have won the seat last night on UNS.Farooq said:
The Conservatives lost all the seats that they contested yesterday, apart from that one, which looks better for them then you think because it was a by election in a multi-member seat. In which they finished first last time.Jamesgraves said:
The Tories have been performing very well in real elections though under Johnson such as last night's by election in High Peak where the Conservatives trounced Labour.CorrectHorseBattery said:Johnson has been just as terrible as Corbyn would have been
The Tories could do well at the local elections and tie with Labour like in 2018. Labour aren't even certain to gain any London councils.
You need better evidence than that for your claim.
The Tory losses went to the LDs not Labour.
Labour certainly will need to do better in May than they did last night to suggest Starmer is heading for No 10
What makes you sure Boris will get a better month to win in what remains of this parliamentary calendar than this June? If the polls go bad for him he won’t even survive as PM will he? The party may agree with Boris judgement catching Labour unready and untrusted this June is too good an option to gamble away by waiting it out for stagflation, recession, fuel poverty, covid and other enquiries to bounce Tories back to popularity over the coming years? Is it so plainly obvious Labour will now become less popular and less credible as government in waiting as each month ticks by tick tock toll times up?
How can your analysis discount as unlikely June election, on back of better than expected real mid term election votes. ?0 -
Yeah Liverpool hates Corbyn and loves SKS!!TheScreamingEagles said:
I pointed out that was thanks to Joe Anderson, Corbyn's mate.bigjohnowls said:Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.
Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside
FPT
Yup, that was the Mayor Chippy Tits factor, as this story broke this week.
See this thread for an explainer, Everton FC costing Labour votes.
https://twitter.com/MattODigs/status/15114539266332180580 -
Corgi beaten to death by pandemic worker in latest pet killing to anger ChinaTimT said:Brutal carton on China's response to COVID:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPvprtAWQAI5jmK?format=jpg&name=large
https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3173467/shanghai-coronavirus-lockdown-corgi-beaten-death0 -
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.0 -
Bye Matthew Stevens vs Gerard Greene calls
Greene +2.5 frames 11/100 -
Firing rockets on a train station carrying 1000s of civilians away from a war zone....the Russians aren't going to stop are they.
Writing on a missile dropped near Kramatorsk station reads: 'For the children'0 -
What about Kosovo?TimT said:Darth Putin
@DarthPutinKGB
·
2h
How it works with events like Kramatorsk.
1. It never happened.
2. They were all Nazis so deserved what didn't happen
3. NATO/Soros/Ukraine staged it
4. What didn't happen to all the Nazis who deserved it/actors who staged it was a biolab.
5. What about Iraq
Repeat.0 -
I would be relatively confident about Labour doing well in Wales where I can see the Tories losing their only majority controlled council Monmouthshire.HYUFD said:Indeed.
Starmer really ought to see Labour have clear lead on NEV and be making significant gains in Wales and London and ideally Scotland to if he is going to become PM.
With all councils up in London, Labour would certainly need to gain Wandsworth, where all MPs are Labour and Barnet and Westminster, which has seats in the top 100 Labour target seats to suggest Starmer is heading for No 10
I think Labour will do also well in the Northern Met districts (some of which like Trafford the Tories could see their worst ever performance) although Kirklees will possibly be the only Labour gain (from NOC).
Elsewhere though Labour could easily fall flat/underperform although they should get a couple of successes in the South in Worthing and Southampton where Starmer is most likely to pop up on May 6.
I haven't done the maths across England but I'm not expecting the Tories to lose more than 200 seats.1 -
Indian Bioko the Ukranian 16 year old snooker player currently on table 2 for you patriots.0
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Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?0
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The latter, I would say. It's a repeated pattern, as we've seen here with the Litvinenko murder and Salisbury.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
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The best sport ever is seeing someone continue to be an apologist for Mr. Thicky Corbyn. Best sport there is. Please keep it up, it is so entertaining.bigjohnowls said:
Mike is a good chap.MoonRabbit said:
You may be alone on PB posting pro Corbyn crazy stuff and funny things from “stats for lefties” web site, but it is still fair Mike gives you your own thread to play in, like giving a 4 year old a sandpit to play in. 🙂bigjohnowls said:Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.
Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside
Unfortunately the timing is not good as I am in the World Snooker Qualifiers yesterday, today and the next three days. Ten minute breaks twice a day.
Best value in sport £10 for 15 hrs sport per day, Or £40 for all 6 days.
Bargain.0 -
I'm working on a spreadsheet for the local elections. It won't be a prediction spreadsheet though.5
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Plus "concede a deal or more civilians will die".Richard_Nabavi said:
The latter, I would say. It's a repeated pattern, as we've seen here with the Litvinenko murder and Salisbury.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
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When you see how successful they have been in infiltrating Western political life it is little wonder they think they are untouchable. We need to learn lessons on this with respect to our dealings with China. We need to reduce our dependency on despotic regimes and be much more vigilant about their attempts to undermine us.Richard_Nabavi said:
The latter, I would say. It's a repeated pattern, as we've seen here with the Litvinenko murder and Salisbury.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
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FPT:
This is not fair. Learn how to spell some Greek.IshmaelZ said:
I haveLeon said:ON topic, has anyone ever been to Pergamom? Is it worth a major effort to see?
It depends if you like Greek cities with acropolises and such - it's a very fine example, magnificent stonework. I am biased in that I am a Galen specialist and it's where the bloviating windbag came from, but it is pretty special.
Aphrodisias prob even better if it's realistic alternative. Or Tlos.
Pergamom (actual: Pergamum or Pergamon) is half-way down TSEs favourite memes of stepmoms and dockyard hookers.
And then it gets on to Aphrodisiás...0 -
I'm not sure that even that makes sense any more, although it may have been the original thinking. You'd have thought that by now they'd have figured out that that's not going to work, and that in fact every outrage simply reinforces the will of the Ukrainians to fight back at all costs.NorthofStoke said:
Plus "concede a deal or more civilians will die".Richard_Nabavi said:
The latter, I would say. It's a repeated pattern, as we've seen here with the Litvinenko murder and Salisbury.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
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So from last nights local elections:
2 Green Gains from Conservatives
2 Lib Dem Gains, one from Ind and one from Conservatives
1 Conservative gain from Labour
4 Labour holds.
May elections are mainly mets, london councils, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and a scattering of districts in England.
Is there a table of existing councillors by party to see what the starting comparison should be?
1 -
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...0 -
It's a punishment beating for the Ukrainians for daring to resist. It's not about the West, except insofar as we don't have much (if any) deterrence value left.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
If they wanted to involve the West I'd think they'd try to hit Western weapon supplies for Ukraine while they were in Poland.
Good to see that the SAM system from Slovakia has been delivered, and Polish tanks will be sent. Hopefully we'll hear in a few days of further deliveries happening today.
"Never again" is sounding increasingly hollow. I know there are arguments against becoming directly militarily involved, but I can't understand why we're still shovelling vast amounts of cash to Russia.0 -
”national region”
Top class trolling Mike.
Anyhoo, this particular majestic Atlantic salmon is not rising to the risible, badly-tied chalk-stream fly. I only popped along to observe that global food inflation was 34% in March. Ouch!3 -
YouGov puts it on a knife-edge.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512397289289097221
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3)
Macron (EC-RE): 58%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42%
...
+/- vs. 28 - 31 March
Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022
Sample size: 1,783"2 -
Aye, the last two years have highlighted again and again that we need to be much more careful about who we are dependent on.Nigel_Foremain said:
When you see how successful they have been in infiltrating Western political life it is little wonder they think they are untouchable. We need to learn lessons on this with respect to our dealings with China. We need to reduce our dependency on despotic regimes and be much more vigilant about their attempts to undermine us.Richard_Nabavi said:
The latter, I would say. It's a repeated pattern, as we've seen here with the Litvinenko murder and Salisbury.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
1 -
Yes, no doubt about that. Unfortunately there's quite a long list of despotic and semi-despotic regimes, and a number of them have got worse in the last few years.Nigel_Foremain said:
When you see how successful they have been in infiltrating Western political life it is little wonder they think they are untouchable. We need to learn lessons on this with respect to our dealings with China. We need to reduce our dependency on despotic regimes and be much more vigilant about their attempts to undermine us.Richard_Nabavi said:
The latter, I would say. It's a repeated pattern, as we've seen here with the Litvinenko murder and Salisbury.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
The old view that engaging with and trading with them would gradually bring them into what we would regard as a more democratic or at least less despotic position has been shown to be a failure in most cases. To be fair, I think it wasn't an unreasonable view twenty or even ten years ago, and for a while it seemed to working relatively well (in China, even in Russia, for example), but we're going to have to rethink it all.1 -
I can't help wondering what the equivalent on PB is of the cat crapping in the sand.MoonRabbit said:
You may be alone on PB posting pro Corbyn crazy stuff and funny things from “stats for lefties” web site, but it is still fair Mike gives you your own thread to play in, like giving a 4 year old a sandpit to play in. 🙂bigjohnowls said:Massive warning bells for Labour in the 2 Liverpool seats last night.
Would love to see some Green Gains or even LD ones from SKS imposed cronies in the Socialist Republic of Mersyside0 -
Liz Truss is back as favourite for next Tory leader with BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1606632340 -
"Litvinenko murder and Salisbury" were about the old, old Soviet policy of murdering "traitors" abroad. They had been doing this since the 1920s (first cases in Paris, IIRC). Though out the cold war, this behaviour only caused diplomatic upsets, at most.Richard_Nabavi said:
The latter, I would say. It's a repeated pattern, as we've seen here with the Litvinenko murder and Salisbury.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bohdan_Stashynsky etc etc...
To Putin, this was about re-establishing the bits of the Soviet Union he liked.1 -
Looks a bit of an outlier showing Le Pen and Zemmour combined 36% .Andy_JS said:YouGov puts it on a knife-edge.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512397289289097221
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3)
Macron (EC-RE): 58%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42%
...
+/- vs. 28 - 31 March
Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022
Sample size: 1,783"
No other pollster throughout the cycle has that high a figure . Other recent polls have that around 32% . Interestingly it seems pollsters based outside of France tend to show a higher far right score .
1 -
And of course we can do something about it...but that something is not military action.Richard_Nabavi said:
The latter, I would say. It's a repeated pattern, as we've seen here with the Litvinenko murder and Salisbury.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
The restructuring of global energy markets, the tech sector/brain drain etc. are going to have effects for generations. It's maybe not commensurate with the slaughter and abuse we are seeing (and I hope that one day the guilty are brought to justice, even if many years later) but these "fuck you" actions from Russia are not as untouchable as they may have believed.1 -
Might be time to start worrying about the quiet Le Pen voters. Larger than average turnouts in small towns might well portent to a Macron mashing.Andy_JS said:YouGov puts it on a knife-edge.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512397289289097221
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3)
Macron (EC-RE): 58%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42%
...
+/- vs. 28 - 31 March
Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022
Sample size: 1,783"1 -
Silly anecdote but just overheard the following, presumably about Angela Rayner, whilst walking back home....
Woman: You know the one I mean, always hanging around with Keir Sharma and talking crap
Bloke: Keir Who?
Woman: Keir Sharma
Bloke: You mean Keir Starmer
Woman: Oh yeah
Bloke: Ah, the northern bird
Woman: Yeah, that one2 -
At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.Farooq said:
!!!Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.0 -
One of Alan Bennett’s lost masterpieces.noneoftheabove said:Silly anecdote but just overheard the following, presumably about Angela Rayner, whilst walking back home....
Woman: You know the one I mean, always hanging around with Keir Sharma and talking crap
Bloke: Keir Who?
Woman: Keir Sharma
Bloke: You mean Keir Starmer
Woman: Oh yeah
Bloke: Ah, the northern bird
Woman: Yeah, that one4 -
Since 2017 Le Pen has underperformed her polling numbers at subsequent elections .. It’s a bit more complicated this time as Zemmour transfers might make that less likely so the combined far right score should be a better guide .MightyAlex said:
Might be time to start worrying about the quiet Le Pen voters. Larger than average turnouts in small towns might well portent to a Macron mashing.Andy_JS said:YouGov puts it on a knife-edge.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512397289289097221
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3)
Macron (EC-RE): 58%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42%
...
+/- vs. 28 - 31 March
Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022
Sample size: 1,783"
0 -
Mr Green Card could be in 3rd place any moment looking at Tugendhat's 8.6.Andy_JS said:Liz Truss is back as favourite for next Tory leader with BE.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
2 -
I'm looking for one but boundary changes make it more difficult than usual to know what the starting figures are.NickyBreakspear said:So from last nights local elections:
2 Green Gains from Conservatives
2 Lib Dem Gains, one from Ind and one from Conservatives
1 Conservative gain from Labour
4 Labour holds.
May elections are mainly mets, london councils, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and a scattering of districts in England.
Is there a table of existing councillors by party to see what the starting comparison should be?0 -
FPT?
Very nice thread about the border and the lemonsCyclefree said:Off topic.
https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1512410320605749249?s=21&t=bP5fav9Fi8v7s4961VRwzg
I am available at an enormous fee to design the gardens of the Sunak's many homes.
1 -
I was very mildly green on Sunak. Had other, bigger fish to catch on next leader stakes like Mordaunt.
Dan Hodges tweeting that Treasury refusing to comment on Green Card means the answer is he had such a card whilst CoE.
He's done.
0 -
The three-time Wimbledon champion Boris Becker has been found guilty at Southwark crown court in London of four charges under the Insolvency Act and acquitted of a further 20 counts relating to his 2017 bankruptcy.
He could face a jail sentence carrying a maximum term of seven years for each count.0 -
There's a David Herdson standing for the Yorkshire Party in the Wakefield Rural No. 18 ward. Will that be PB's Mr Herdson? IIRC he's now Yorkshire Party?0
-
Agreed. I did wonder if any sheep lean over the fence at the back for a nibble.MattW said:FPT?
Very nice thread about the border and the lemonsCyclefree said:Off topic.
https://twitter.com/cyclefree2/status/1512410320605749249?s=21&t=bP5fav9Fi8v7s4961VRwzg
I am available at an enormous fee to design the gardens of the Sunak's many homes.0 -
You don't think he would try and avoid time limits? He has tried everything else.Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
Anyway as he won, as he keeps telling us, in 2020 he is ineligible in 2024 no?0 -
Nice trykjh said:
You don't think he would try and avoid time limits? He has tried everything else.Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
Anyway as he won, as he keeps telling us, in 2020 he is ineligible in 2024 no? Given how much Trump enrages the left though, I wouldn’t be too surprised if, on the last day of Joe Biden’s Presidency, Trump did actually win the 2020 election after all and so he has reached his term limits… 1 -
I think Labour will be pretty happy with the latest polling: leads of 5%, 6% and 7% and all three polls having them at 40% or higher. That's pretty solid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
It looks like the narrowing we saw at the outbreak of Putin's war on Ukraine has dropped out of the equation and we're back to where we were, albeit not yet seeing the occasional double digit leads as we did during the height of partygate.
I'm not really sure how in the current situation the tories intend to turn this around. Boris Johnson seems to have a wow factor with some floating voters but during the early Ukraine crisis he wasn't under negative scrutiny as he will be in the build up to the General Election. So I return to the question: how will the tories turn this around?
I don't think they can unless they change leader and that's not now likely. They are heading to lose power after 14 years of holding the keys to No. 10.0 -
As opposed to the old, doddering senile fool who’s in the White House at the moment…Farooq said:
You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.Applicant said:
At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.Farooq said:
!!!Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.
But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.1 -
Corbyn has written an article defending Galloway's Stop The War. There is no way back for him in Starmer's Labour now. So I guess he will either retire in 2024 or try and become the proper independent MP for N Islington's dinning tables.
0 -
Corbyn will never retire, like Dennis Skinner...its been his whole life and his belief in his views (and everybody else is wrong) have never wavered for 40 years.rottenborough said:Corbyn has written an article defending Galloway's Stop The War. There is no way back for him in Starmer's Labour now. So I guess he will either retire in 2024 or try and become the proper independent MP for N Islington's dinning tables.
1 -
-
@Malmesbury FPT.
a) I looked up to see if there was a double taxation agreement with India as you asked. There is. I tried reading it and gave up because I got to the point where I couldn't be arsed (it is bad enough I have had to read the Spanish and Swiss ones) but I'm guessing it is pretty standard.
b) Did you see my post towards the end of the last thread. Between us we appear to have wasted a lot of words as we were talking about different things. I was talking about company vs self employment you were talking about company vs employment. I actually agree with everything you said on company vs employment.0 -
This is very important.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
There have always been commentators like Ann Coulter or Al Franken that have earned a living writing books about how people on the other side of the spectrum were evil and terrible and liars etc. And they existed on both sides of the political spectrum.
And these people go back DECADES. They may have been amplified by social media and the Internet and cable TV. But you can back to the 70s and see people getting books published that spout crazy conspiracy nonsense about their political opponents
But there has always been a belief that votes in ballot boxes counted. Ultimately, you can bitch and moan about how your opponent got there, but there was an acceptance that the votes mattered.
Until 2020: when the President asked for people to 'find votes' for him. And then because other (ordinarily sensible) politicians were scared of the "base", they didn't condemn him.
This is how democracy dies. Or civil war starts.
And neither of those are good things.9 -
Of course he will try and avoid the term limits. If Americans are bonkers enough to put him back in 2024, which looks worryingly plausible, then they may well find he is there for life.kjh said:
You don't think he would try and avoid time limits? He has tried everything else.Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
Anyway as he won, as he keeps telling us, in 2020 he is ineligible in 2024 no?
If Putin can hang on until 2024, a whole load of fruit is headed his way.0 -
I’d be surprised if the French result is tighter than 55/45 to Macron.
Anti-Le Pen voters have high motivation to turn out in the second round. Anti-Macron voters do not.1 -
I believe so.northern_monkey said:There's a David Herdson standing for the Yorkshire Party in the Wakefield Rural No. 18 ward. Will that be PB's Mr Herdson? IIRC he's now Yorkshire Party?
1 -
BBC pointing out that inheritance tax not part of Indian taxation, so potential £280m saving from non dom status.kjh said:@Malmesbury FPT.
a) I looked up to see if there was a double taxation agreement with India as you asked. There is. I tried reading it and gave up because I got to the point where I couldn't be arsed (it is bad enough I have had to read the Spanish and Swiss ones) but I'm guessing it is pretty standard.
b) Did you see my post towards the end of the last thread. Between us we appear to have wasted a lot of words as we were talking about different things. I was talking about company vs self employment you were talking about company vs employment. I actually agree with everything you said on company vs employment.
Person responsible for reviewing the tax laws in such situations? Rishi.1 -
I doubt it, not least because if the Ukrainians are giving them a hammering, imagine what some US made jets and drones could do.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
0 -
Thanks for the catchup - appreciated.kjh said:@Malmesbury FPT.
a) I looked up to see if there was a double taxation agreement with India as you asked. There is. I tried reading it and gave up because I got to the point where I couldn't be arsed (it is bad enough I have had to read the Spanish and Swiss ones) but I'm guessing it is pretty standard.
b) Did you see my post towards the end of the last thread. Between us we appear to have wasted a lot of words as we were talking about different things. I was talking about company vs self employment you were talking about company vs employment. I actually agree with everything you said on company vs employment.1 -
Member of Yorkshire party - check.rottenborough said:
I believe so.northern_monkey said:There's a David Herdson standing for the Yorkshire Party in the Wakefield Rural No. 18 ward. Will that be PB's Mr Herdson? IIRC he's now Yorkshire Party?
Lives near Wakefield - check
I would be surprised if its anyone else.1 -
@Woger will be upset.FrancisUrquhart said:The three-time Wimbledon champion Boris Becker has been found guilty at Southwark crown court in London of four charges under the Insolvency Act and acquitted of a further 20 counts relating to his 2017 bankruptcy.
He could face a jail sentence carrying a maximum term of seven years for each count.1 -
Because Germany only cares about Germany.LostPassword said:
It's a punishment beating for the Ukrainians for daring to resist. It's not about the West, except insofar as we don't have much (if any) deterrence value left.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
If they wanted to involve the West I'd think they'd try to hit Western weapon supplies for Ukraine while they were in Poland.
Good to see that the SAM system from Slovakia has been delivered, and Polish tanks will be sent. Hopefully we'll hear in a few days of further deliveries happening today.
"Never again" is sounding increasingly hollow. I know there are arguments against becoming directly militarily involved, but I can't understand why we're still shovelling vast amounts of cash to Russia.1 -
Sure. I agree to a point.nico679 said:
Since 2017 Le Pen has underperformed her polling numbers at subsequent elections .. It’s a bit more complicated this time as Zemmour transfers might make that less likely so the combined far right score should be a better guide .MightyAlex said:
Might be time to start worrying about the quiet Le Pen voters. Larger than average turnouts in small towns might well portent to a Macron mashing.Andy_JS said:YouGov puts it on a knife-edge.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512397289289097221
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3)
Macron (EC-RE): 58%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42%
...
+/- vs. 28 - 31 March
Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022
Sample size: 1,783"
Of course I'm drawing on Trump/Brexit/Johnson effects and the ability of certain right wingers to draw out the low propensity voters in the anglosphere. Yes, she's not managed it so far but.. a little momentum leads to a Le Pen vote being more social acceptable and a little more momentum. Before you know it your low information voters have turned.0 -
While much of the United States has reported a plateau in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, New York City and Washington, D.C., have been battling a swift rise in cases in the last two weeks...
...the highly contagious BA.2 subvariant is contributing to a new wave in some places, especially in the Northeast.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/08/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#cases-are-spiking-in-new-york-city-and-washington-dc0 -
It’s not silly.noneoftheabove said:Silly anecdote but just overheard the following, presumably about Angela Rayner, whilst walking back home....
Woman: You know the one I mean, always hanging around with Keir Sharma and talking crap
Bloke: Keir Who?
Woman: Keir Sharma
Bloke: You mean Keir Starmer
Woman: Oh yeah
Bloke: Ah, the northern bird
Woman: Yeah, that one
It’s good to remind us that not everyone pores over the minutia of politics in the way we do3 -
Yep I reckon 60:40 or better for Macron.Gardenwalker said:I’d be surprised if the French result is tighter than 55/45 to Macron.
Anti-Le Pen voters have high motivation to turn out in the second round. Anti-Macron voters do not.0 -
Well, Trump isn't "my guy", except in that I don't have an irrational hatred for him. Sure, he's an arsehole. But if the Dems don't pull their fingers out, he could win again.Farooq said:
You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.Applicant said:
At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.Farooq said:
!!!Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.
But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.0 -
No, I don't. It needs a constitutional amendment, which ain't happening.kjh said:
You don't think he would try and avoid time limits? He has tried everything else.Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...0 -
Which is why he was the wrong choice as leader. As his hero, Antony Wedgewood-Benn, aka Tony Benn would have been, although to be fair the latter's view did change somewhat during his life. However, he 'stabilised' about 1980 or so and became, like his acolyte, a sort of cryer in the wilderness, urging people to return to the true faith. As he saw it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Corbyn will never retire, like Dennis Skinner...its been his whole life and his belief in his views (and everybody else is wrong) have never wavered for 40 years.rottenborough said:Corbyn has written an article defending Galloway's Stop The War. There is no way back for him in Starmer's Labour now. So I guess he will either retire in 2024 or try and become the proper independent MP for N Islington's dinning tables.
0 -
Just about every Government over the past 50 years has had poor opinion polls mid term and many have gone on to win the next election, often very easily.Heathener said:I think Labour will be pretty happy with the latest polling: leads of 5%, 6% and 7% and all three polls having them at 40% or higher. That's pretty solid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
It looks like the narrowing we saw at the outbreak of Putin's war on Ukraine has dropped out of the equation and we're back to where we were, albeit not yet seeing the occasional double digit leads as we did during the height of partygate.
I'm not really sure how in the current situation the tories intend to turn this around. Boris Johnson seems to have a wow factor with some floating voters but during the early Ukraine crisis he wasn't under negative scrutiny as he will be in the build up to the General Election. So I return to the question: how will the tories turn this around?
I don't think they can unless they change leader and that's not now likely. They are heading to lose power after 14 years of holding the keys to No. 10.2 -
Or that they do it very differently!StillWaters said:
It’s not silly.noneoftheabove said:Silly anecdote but just overheard the following, presumably about Angela Rayner, whilst walking back home....
Woman: You know the one I mean, always hanging around with Keir Sharma and talking crap
Bloke: Keir Who?
Woman: Keir Sharma
Bloke: You mean Keir Starmer
Woman: Oh yeah
Bloke: Ah, the northern bird
Woman: Yeah, that one
It’s good to remind us that not everyone pores over the minutia of politics in the way we do0 -
Islington North might be interesting at the next election if Corbyn manages to split the natural Labour vote pretty much 50/50 between him and an official Labour candidate.rottenborough said:Corbyn has written an article defending Galloway's Stop The War. There is no way back for him in Starmer's Labour now. So I guess he will either retire in 2024 or try and become the proper independent MP for N Islington's dinning tables.
0 -
Not everyone is an understatement. I suspect we here form the majority who do, which means we can be spectacularly out of touch.StillWaters said:
It’s not silly.noneoftheabove said:Silly anecdote but just overheard the following, presumably about Angela Rayner, whilst walking back home....
Woman: You know the one I mean, always hanging around with Keir Sharma and talking crap
Bloke: Keir Who?
Woman: Keir Sharma
Bloke: You mean Keir Starmer
Woman: Oh yeah
Bloke: Ah, the northern bird
Woman: Yeah, that one
It’s good to remind us that not everyone pores over the minutia of politics in the way we do0 -
Trump must never win another election.0
-
Thank you for that image. Fingers and arsehole in the same post…Applicant said:
Well, Trump isn't "my guy", except in that I don't have an irrational hatred for him. Sure, he's an arsehole. But if the Dems don't pull their fingers out, he could win again.Farooq said:
You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.Applicant said:
At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.Farooq said:
!!!Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.
But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.0 -
X Soviet 🇺🇦
@XSovietNews
Armed soldiers were removed from guarding Zhirinovsky when Putin came to pay respects.
https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/15124004567477370980 -
‘ "Never again" is sounding increasingly hollow.”LostPassword said:
It's a punishment beating for the Ukrainians for daring to resist. It's not about the West, except insofar as we don't have much (if any) deterrence value left.FrancisUrquhart said:Are the Russians trying to bait the West into getting directly involved or is it a middle finger of look what we can do and you lot can't do a thing about it?
If they wanted to involve the West I'd think they'd try to hit Western weapon supplies for Ukraine while they were in Poland.
Good to see that the SAM system from Slovakia has been delivered, and Polish tanks will be sent. Hopefully we'll hear in a few days of further deliveries happening today.
"Never again" is sounding increasingly hollow. I know there are arguments against becoming directly militarily involved, but I can't understand why we're still shovelling vast amounts of cash to Russia.
This kills the “never again” mantra dead. Kind of worry this sets a precedent for the move into other places now 😕
The best thing for the West now is regime change to the Novarny/Kasparov grouping and the West to embrace them and not play Cold War with it.
An equivalent would be how South Africa changed with release of Mandala?1 -
Having said lots of unhelpful things about Boris Johnson pre-Ukraine, Douglas Ross is now saying unhelpful things about Rishi Sunak
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/1 -
I'm in DC right now...rottenborough said:While much of the United States has reported a plateau in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, New York City and Washington, D.C., have been battling a swift rise in cases in the last two weeks...
...the highly contagious BA.2 subvariant is contributing to a new wave in some places, especially in the Northeast.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/08/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine#cases-are-spiking-in-new-york-city-and-washington-dc
I'm also flying to plague Island the UK tomorrow.0 -
What if a majority of the 2024 Electoral College voters support him? How about then?CorrectHorseBattery said:Trump must never win another election.
1 -
That’s a fair point . The next polls after the 1st round will be key as then voters have given Macron the kicking and then we’ll see how many are still willing to go for Le Pen .MightyAlex said:
Sure. I agree to a point.nico679 said:
Since 2017 Le Pen has underperformed her polling numbers at subsequent elections .. It’s a bit more complicated this time as Zemmour transfers might make that less likely so the combined far right score should be a better guide .MightyAlex said:
Might be time to start worrying about the quiet Le Pen voters. Larger than average turnouts in small towns might well portent to a Macron mashing.Andy_JS said:YouGov puts it on a knife-edge.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512397289289097221
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
France, Datapraxis/YouGov poll:
Presidential run-off election
Macron (EC-RE): 51% (-3)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+3)
Macron (EC-RE): 58%
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 42%
...
+/- vs. 28 - 31 March
Fieldwork: 4-7 April 2022
Sample size: 1,783"
Of course I'm drawing on Trump/Brexit/Johnson effects and the ability of certain right wingers to draw out the low propensity voters in the anglosphere. Yes, she's not managed it so far but.. a little momentum leads to a Le Pen vote being more social acceptable and a little more momentum. Before you know it your low information voters have turned.
I’d be more worried if Macrons strong voter group were younger people , as it is he has a huge lead in over 65s when matched against Le Pen and that’s the group who are much more likely to vote in their droves .1 -
YKIOK.StillWaters said:
Thank you for that image. Fingers and arsehole in the same post…Applicant said:
Well, Trump isn't "my guy", except in that I don't have an irrational hatred for him. Sure, he's an arsehole. But if the Dems don't pull their fingers out, he could win again.Farooq said:
You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.Applicant said:
At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.Farooq said:
!!!Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.
But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.0 -
Speaks volumes about Ross these Example of a fair weather friend.Scott_xP said:Having said lots of unhelpful things about Boris Johnson pre-Ukraine, Douglas Ross is now saying unhelpful things about Rishi Sunak
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20056000.douglas-ross-says-chancellor-rishi-sunak-come-clean-wifes-tax-affairs/0 -
Well, this is also true, yes.Farooq said:
It would also need him to live long enough. The man is 75, permanently angry, and pure lard. Reckon he's got 7 years left in him? I don't.Applicant said:
No, I don't. It needs a constitutional amendment, which ain't happening.kjh said:
You don't think he would try and avoid time limits? He has tried everything else.Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...0 -
Though circumstance doesn’t seem to be trending that way.NerysHughes said:
Just about every Government over the past 50 years has had poor opinion polls mid term and many have gone on to win the next election, often very easily.Heathener said:I think Labour will be pretty happy with the latest polling: leads of 5%, 6% and 7% and all three polls having them at 40% or higher. That's pretty solid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
It looks like the narrowing we saw at the outbreak of Putin's war on Ukraine has dropped out of the equation and we're back to where we were, albeit not yet seeing the occasional double digit leads as we did during the height of partygate.
I'm not really sure how in the current situation the tories intend to turn this around. Boris Johnson seems to have a wow factor with some floating voters but during the early Ukraine crisis he wasn't under negative scrutiny as he will be in the build up to the General Election. So I return to the question: how will the tories turn this around?
I don't think they can unless they change leader and that's not now likely. They are heading to lose power after 14 years of holding the keys to No. 10.
If elections are always about the economy (at the end of the day), are people really going to vote Tory when they’re experiencing a direct hit on wages / cost of living / etc0 -
Trump and Pelosi? Yeuuch!Applicant said:
YKIOK.StillWaters said:
Thank you for that image. Fingers and arsehole in the same post…Applicant said:
Well, Trump isn't "my guy", except in that I don't have an irrational hatred for him. Sure, he's an arsehole. But if the Dems don't pull their fingers out, he could win again.Farooq said:
You want spending controls on elections? Fine by me.Applicant said:
At the end of the day and on balance, the unprecedented nature of the campaign against him doesn't nake it not free and fair - but it was a damn sight more arguable than claiming that the reported vote tally didn't match the votes cast.Farooq said:
!!!Applicant said:
The "birther thing" was preposterous, though, nobody sensible ever took it seriously. And in any case it didn't stop Obama being re-elected...Farooq said:
Sure, you can start your narrative there and ignore the whole birther thing which Trump was front and centre of, and yes, ignoring the whole birther stuff makes you a partisan hack and a commentator of zero consequence... but... it STILL doesn't explain why it's "unsurprising"* that he tried to do a coup. It would be a hell of an escalation even if Trump weren't guilty of the same bitching beforehand, which he was.Applicant said:
If you only look at the final action, you don't understand how we got to the point where it was possible, and therefore you don't learn how to stop it happening again. Trump saw a concerted four-year campaign against the legitimacy of his presidency so, when he lost, it shouldn't be too surprising that he refused to accept defeat for as long as he could. And I very much doubt he wanted any violence - I don't think he or any of the protestors thougfht it was possible they'd even get inside Congress.Farooq said:
I mean, no.Applicant said:
Without the first three, the fourth one would never have happened in the first place, so...Farooq said:
And with Biden, his defeated opponent tried to do a coup.Applicant said:
Oh, indeed. With Bush it was a few nutters on the Internet. With Obama it was TV pundits. With Trump it was elected politicians.Farooq said:
Well, social media has grown.Applicant said:
Rather more intensely with each successive president, though.Farooq said:
People were saying that when Obama was in power. And when Bush was in power. It's a pretty meaningless howl of disapproval.Applicant said:.
And they aren't the only ones. "Not My President".SouthamObserver said:
Trump and Johnson have both used their time in power to weaken democratic norms.turbotubbs said:
But that democracy for three of those nations. And try as you might, you should not include Trump, Johnson and Le Pen in the same class as Putin. Putin has invaded a neighbour, killed thousands of people (including his own troops), overseen war crimes, launched chemical weapons attacks across the globe. What did Trump do (in office)? Started the process of pulling out of Afghanistan. Confused the hell out of Rocketman in North Korea. Avoided blowing up the world by accident. What of Johnson? He pushed through a form of brexit that many don't like and probably isn't going to work or last in the long term - another government will correct that. He tried his best in the pandemic, and got some things right and some things wrong. He broke his own laws over socialising and was wrong to do so, but he didn't invade France. And Le Pen - what are her policies? Invading Germany? Or is it just that she is of the right that you don't like her?Jonathan said:Johnson in London
Le Pen in Paris
Trump in Washington
Putin smiling in Moscow
What a total shitshow lurks on the horizon.
Famous commentators like Sean Hannity (who said it about Obama) have helped to normalise it.
Just to finish your thought, you know. Don't want to miss the actually important bit where someone tried to turn their bitterness into an insurrection.
The Republicans didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Obama.
The Democrats didn't try to overthrow the democratic system after they lost to Trump.
But Trump did after he lost to Biden.
There's no "both sides" here. We've got people on both sides mewling and THAT IS ALLOWED. If you think a deadly riot is a normal or expected response to people having a moan, then you've got problems.
*Of course, "it shouldn't be too surprising" is a cipher for "justified", which is where I really take exception to people pushing this garbage.
The thing with Trump is, he definitely had a case for arguing that the election was not entirely free and fair - not just the four year campaign against him, but also Zuckerburg's millions poured into carefully-selected areas. But instead he went down the lines of trying to claim that the vote count didn't reflect the votes cast, which was never going to fly.
And even after well over a year of him being out of office the hysteria has barely abated. The idea that he would if he won in 2024 he would try to evade term limits just won't die...
You think the election wasn't free and fair because "there was a campaign against him"?
This is tragic fare, not worthy of your time let alone mine.
And I note you didn't mention anything about Zuckerberg's millions buying the election.
I'd also be happy if the Democrats, Republicans, AND Facebook didn't exist.
But there's not some conspiracy against your guy. It's just that a lot of people think he's an arsehole. And, well, he proved them right.0 -
So apart from David Herdson and my good self, anyone else here facing the verdict of wrathful (shurely admiring - ed) electors on May 5th?1
This discussion has been closed.