How long before Sunak ceases to be favourite for next CON leader? – politicalbetting.com
How long before Sunak ceases to be favourite for next CON leader? – politicalbetting.com
The big UK political betting story in recent weeks has been the decline of Sunak In the next prime minister market. Starmer now has a clear lead and the gap is getting wider.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Unlike Sunak at any future Conservative leadership contest...
Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."
Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.
Inertia, and the lack of an obvious alternate favourite keeping him afloat for now.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers
It's another case of "Don't believe your own hype," and it's very easy for anyone receiving lots of praise to fall into: individuals, politicians, companies, charities, etc.
Take the SAS. They are an organisation with an illustrious past, who are almost worshipped by many. Yet they operate in near-secrecy, and we outsiders have little idea of their recent successes and failures. Imagine if the SAS squaddies and officers started believing their own hype. They are the best; they can do anything. Imagine if that means they didn't train quite as hard, because, as well all know, they are the best. Over time, that could lead to a real diminution of their skills and operating efficiency.
The real answer is to say: "We are the best because we work like **** to ensure we're the best." I fear many Russian units have taken the easier answer: "We are the best, so we don't need to work as hard to ensure we're the best."
There's another angle: thinking the enemy is poor. If you add "... and the enemy is cr@p" to the end of "We are the best", then you have another reason not to train or work as hard, because you know, they're much worse than us. Whereby thinking the enemy are very good (but not, of course, quite as good as you), encourages you to keep that edge.
Anecdotally, this is something Apple used to do in the Jobs era (and I bet they still do). Many in Apple are rather (ahem) arrogant about their superiority. But they took the capabilities of their competitors very, very seriously. They think they are the best, and they work very hard to try to make that true.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BillPascrell/status/1511451715815583753
Just now 63 House republicans - nearly one-third of the entire gop caucus - voted against support for NATO “as an alliance founded on democratic principles.” The GOP truly is Putin’s Party.
In comparison, Napoleon invaded Russia with >600k troops, and he had many more tied down in the Peninsular War. The Russian army opposing them had rough parity.
In 1941, Germany invaded Russia with 3.8 million troops, against an initial 2.5-3 million Russian troops. The Germans had between 3 and 4 thousand tanks facing Russia at the start.
Russia invaded Ukraine with just 150k troops. I cannot find numbers for Ukrainian fighting troops, but before the war they had over 240k troops, and that will be increasing as civilians are trained.
The numbers seem rather small.
The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.
Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
Big Dog is incompetent at everything that he does, from the personal to the political, but with one exception in the ruthless pursuit of power.
I noticed the slogan a few years ago when it cropped up in advertising on a regular basis. My first thought was "Why?" I should waste money on some expensive frippery because I'm special, and I can afford it?
Perhaps it's a generational divide?
Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).
Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
"You're not as good as you think you are, so need to work harder" is a great driver of the work ethic, but a terrible political slogan!
I don't know the full context, and accept that there is a Putin sympathising faction in the GOP, but it doesn't seem like they are that prevalent.
If anything Republican support for NATO may have strengthened, from the low point during the Trump administration. It is looking in far better shape than it ever did before.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine, by contrast, could only have been more clearly flagged up if he had paid loudspeaker vans to drive through every Ukrainian town and village shouting 'we're going to invade on this date, make sure you've baked your poisoned delicacies for us, see you then.'
Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council as well as a former president, said in a Telegram post that Putin had launched his brutal invasion of the former Soviet republic to bring peace to Ukraine, in further signs that the Russian warmonger has become increasingly deranged."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10689353/Ukraine-war-Putins-endgame-Moscow-led-empire-Vladivostok-Lisbon.htm
A thought for those who don't recognise the demands on teachers.
More than 15,000 NHS workers handed enormous pension tax bills
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/doctors-forced-retirement-receiving-9000-pension-tax-bills/ (£££)
The paywalled article says that one third of those who exceeded the pension contribution annual allowance work for the NHS. Because doctors are highly paid, the allowance is only £4,000, and their pension contributions rise automatically with salary and even overtime. This is not new news, it has been known about for years, but is perhaps a timely reminder of government roadblocks as the NHS struggles to clear its backlog.
This stuff used to sound vaguely threatening - now it is just absurd and ridiculous.
My school is running revision sessions over Easter, and paying staff for them. But not many people have signed up.
One of many reasons that some colleagues are cutting hours or not wanting extra shifts.
Labour may not need many details. Just being seen to get it may be enough when the government clearly doesn't
Do they have any border disputes in Asia, apart from that with Japan?
Many of the reports of missile strikes in recent days, have been accompanied by images of unexploded warheads half-buried in the ground. They’re out of reliable long-range ordnance.
All they have left is the CBN threats, and I think even the Russian generals know what will be the Western response to any use of those.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60996174
Latest Omicron BA.2 wave is hitting the NHS with hospitalisations + staff off sick.
Yet we haven't seen Whitty/Vallance or @sajidjavid use that £2.6m Downing Street press briefing room since February.
Govt policy seems to be: "don't mention the wards"
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/chris-whitty-patrick-vallance-back-tv-cope-covid-wave-1557525
Much as I would celebrate the end of Putin, if such a coup does occur it will be vitally important to determine if the coup arose because those involved decided that invading Ukraine was a mistake, or that it was poorly organised and implemented.
This would make a huge difference to where Russia went next.
Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
As people start seeing their hard-earned money disappearing in higher food and fuel and tax bills the only possible positive would be if money was being surged into communities and services.
An NI rise to pay for improvements in the NHS may be tolerable. Higher cost of living but they're rebuilding our moribund town centre may be a trade that could be spun.
Instead they continue to claim services getting better and towns being invested in whilst people can see that things are getting worse and no money is being invested. Incompetent lies not a good look.
On the other hand, "because you're worthless" isn't the most persuasive of political slogans.
'One of their strongest allies.' But what has he actually done? Nothing but posturing. As usual.
The one thing Johnson excels at is photo ops, which enables him to give the impression of doing lots about everything. Beneath the charade there is nothing.
I had a bad fall yesterday. I'm not decrepit and ancient. I keep myself fit but somehow I managed to miss my footing and ended up being sent to A&E by a doctor.
What an utter mess. The 5 hour wait was pushed back to 8 hours and in the end I just gave up and came back home to catch a short sleep.
This country has gone to the dogs. The sooner the tories are booted out the better for everyone except the Far Right lunatics. They are wrecking this county with their blind dogma.
Fuck Boris. Fuck the tories.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022
I always thought taxing the better paid more was the way to increase public spending easily and everyone wanted that.
Its odd that people will do what they can to avoid paying tax, whilst moaning at the Government for not increasing public spending.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/friend-and-adviser-how-jimmy-savile-fixed-it-for-the-royals-sgpzqlknd
The way things are going for Sunak at present it'll emerge he used to work for Savile.
Now, much like with the vaccines, undoubtedly a lot is being handled by competent subordinates (e.g. Ben Wallace, civil service, military), but Johnson would deserve the blame if his subordinates were incompetent, so he deserves praise now.
FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...
"Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."
Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
I bet you that is more bollocks coming from Johnson.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1511595916775641089
Ukrainian internet providers are super-fragmented. Every small city has multiple companies installing fibers. This drove down costs. My 1,000Mbs connection with TV service (including Formula1 broadcast) was $10/month in Kyiv.
This may be a good thing during this war.
Not sure you'd see this from Openreach.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1511595916775641089
I would say that the experience of Ukraine is such that NATO membership is an essential prerequisite for peace in Europe. Otherwise some dickhead like Putin or one of his successors will come along and try and pick off the countries one by one. I think it is just an inevitable consequence of Russian 'strategic culture', that this will be the case.
The Russians have bought this containment upon themselves. If they can be walled off and excluded from co-operation, then they are less likely to be successful in infiltrating the politics and culture of Europe.
Training the Ukranians was a decision taken by the Coalition, which I doubt the clown was even aware of until it came to matter.
Much closer and a lot of PBers will need to reverse ferret their criticisms of Andrew Neil.
After the chaos in A&E last night I'm not in a good mood with Boris Johnson and co. though to be fair I wasn't exactly their biggest fan beforehand. The NHS is in such a terrible state. Because people can't get GP appointments they attend A&E for things like basic wound dressings. Was I one of those? Apparently not according to the emergency doctor who spoke to me. But the situation is just complete chaos.
I think back 30 years, 20 years, 10 years ... how was Britain then compared to now?
Scores out of 100 on all things of well-being:
1992 70 (pre Black Wednesday)
2002 75 (post 9/11 otherwise higher)
2012 75 (The coalition. Bliss.)
2022 2 (and I think that's being generous)
The country is shit
Right I'm dragging my tired wounded body back to bed. Apologies for incoherence. Some will doubtless say that it's no different from normal
Oh, wait, never mind.
1. They have a strong defence relationship with both Ukraine and Russia.
2. They have a strong bilateral relationship with Ukraine - e.g. very large numbers of Indian students go to Ukrainian universities.
3. They see a close relationship with Russia as a vital defence against China.
4. The geopolitical outcome they most want to avoid is a close relationship between Russia and China.
5. They really want to continue to improve relations with the US as a defence against China.
Russia itself certainly wouldn't want to become too reliant on China, and so the relationship with India is useful to Russia, but it's hard not to conclude that the relationship between Russia and India is more important to India than to Russia, notwithstanding Russia's current lack of friends, and that puts India in a very difficult position right now. As far as I can make out, a central plank of their geopolitical strategy has been to have a stronger Russia-India relationship than the Russia-China relationship, and that now looks like a failure.
But Covid and the effects of the Ukraine war are common to a large number of countries in Europe and the world.
And hope you feel better soon.
(Jesus. People's irrational hatred of Johnson is turning me, someone who was criticising him before most on here, and who has never voted for him, into a defended of him!)
Listening to him this morning he is suggesting vat is cut to 17.5% and he admitted it would cost a mere 18 billion
It does seem the opposition have completely blanked out the cost of covid and how giving a vat cut to the wealthy is progressive
I am a stern critic of Rishi since his ill fated budget but this vat cut is simply not an answer
Targeted help to those most in need should be the desire of all politicians in this crisis
https://www.tena.co.uk/women
US intelligence appears to be of a similar view.
https://www.businessinsider.com/majority-of-russian-missiles-failing-to-launch-explode-us-officials-2022-3
The problem is not one of high taxes on income, where by definition the money is there, the pension tax taper produces a tax bill on an increase in a pension pot that cannot be accessed until retirement. Hence a few years ago I got a tax bill for £28,000 on an increase in my pension benefits. This creates cash flow problems, and hence the need to stay under the taper threshold.
There was cake, and booze.
Apparently he didn't know they were parties...
But I invite you to review what a whole stack of people who've interacted with Johnson - professionally and personally - have said, from his schooldays onwards, and to notice his lack of friends and allies. And then consider whether my observations are out of line, or whether maybe it's your reaction.
The only people who rate him are those who don't know him.
Of course this is far worse for old people. If an old person is admitted to hospital and dies before they should have again, who cares. No one is going to accuse anyone of hastening, even if by omission, the death of an 80+ yr old.
So it is an institutional problem and also a taxpayer one. We don't want to pay more for our health service. So we have the worst of all worlds - an underfunded health service and a criminally inefficient one also.
Hope you feel better soon.
"I’m in constant contact with @BorisJohnson. Talked about critical humanitarian situation in the blocked cities, shared information about the peace talks. Discussed strengthening sanctions against Russia and defense cooperation between Ukraine and Great Britain."
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1510336038199300101
"Talked to @BorisJohnson again. The United Kingdom is our powerful ally. Discussed the defensive support for 🇺🇦, intensification of anti-Russian sanctions and post-war security guarantees. We look forward to the donors' conference for Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1510336038199300101
"Held regular talks with 🇬🇧 PM @BorisJohnson. Informed about the heroic struggle of 🇺🇦 people against the Russian aggression. Grateful for the strong support, including in terms of security. We’re committed to strengthen the anti-war coalition & ensure peace in 🇺🇦. #StopRussia"
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1504792096468836352
And various other tweets. Now it was the Telegraph that said Zelenskyy and Johnson were in contact via text messages. You might have doubts about their impartiality as a source, but it seems to be borne out by the way in which Zelenskyy talks about Johnson and the support he is receiving from the UK.
That is not inconsistent with his having dealt with the two big crises of his premiership, quite well in the case of Covid, and very well, in the case of Ukraine.
In regard to your last line, while I would not use the same language here in Wales, Drakeford and labour are a NHS disaster and the last person to fall in our town lay on the pavement for 10 hours
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802
Many people in the 2000s were saying how friendly Blair and Brown were, yet we saw that was a lie even before Brown got power.
Again, I stress I don't think Johnson is a good PM. But neither do I think he's the venal, nasty and lazy one his haters on here make him out to be. He's a flawed individual, but then so was Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, and May.
It’s something of which Britons should all take pride, no matter what we may think of any specific British politician. 🇬🇧🇺🇦