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How long before Sunak ceases to be favourite for next CON leader? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 17 in General
imageHow long before Sunak ceases to be favourite for next CON leader? – politicalbetting.com

The big UK political betting story in recent weeks has been the decline of Sunak In the next prime minister market. Starmer now has a clear lead and the gap is getting wider.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    First.

    Unlike Sunak at any future Conservative leadership contest...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    Not long.
    Inertia, and the lack of an obvious alternate favourite keeping him afloat for now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    An interesting thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
    What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    Nigelb said:

    An interesting thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
    What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers

    That’s taken from a very long thread, which also convincingly describes how this invasion was almost exactly modelled on Czechoslovakia ‘68. Except that used 500k soldiers - and Czechoslovakian hadn’t spent over half a decade preparing to fight it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    Nigelb said:

    An interesting thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
    What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers

    Almost certainly the case.

    It's another case of "Don't believe your own hype," and it's very easy for anyone receiving lots of praise to fall into: individuals, politicians, companies, charities, etc.

    Take the SAS. They are an organisation with an illustrious past, who are almost worshipped by many. Yet they operate in near-secrecy, and we outsiders have little idea of their recent successes and failures. Imagine if the SAS squaddies and officers started believing their own hype. They are the best; they can do anything. Imagine if that means they didn't train quite as hard, because, as well all know, they are the best. Over time, that could lead to a real diminution of their skills and operating efficiency.

    The real answer is to say: "We are the best because we work like **** to ensure we're the best." I fear many Russian units have taken the easier answer: "We are the best, so we don't need to work as hard to ensure we're the best."

    There's another angle: thinking the enemy is poor. If you add "... and the enemy is [email protected]" to the end of "We are the best", then you have another reason not to train or work as hard, because you know, they're much worse than us. Whereby thinking the enemy are very good (but not, of course, quite as good as you), encourages you to keep that edge.

    Anecdotally, this is something Apple used to do in the Jobs era (and I bet they still do). Many in Apple are rather (ahem) arrogant about their superiority. But they took the capabilities of their competitors very, very seriously. They think they are the best, and they work very hard to try to make that true.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    This would have been unbelievable a little while ago.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BillPascrell/status/1511451715815583753
    Just now 63 House republicans - nearly one-third of the entire gop caucus - voted against support for NATO “as an alliance founded on democratic principles.” The GOP truly is Putin’s Party.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
    What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers

    That’s taken from a very long thread, which also convincingly describes how this invasion was almost exactly modelled on Czechoslovakia ‘68. Except that used 500k soldiers - and Czechoslovakian hadn’t spent over half a decade preparing to fight it.
    One thing that surprises me are the relatively low troop numbers involved.


    In comparison, Napoleon invaded Russia with >600k troops, and he had many more tied down in the Peninsular War. The Russian army opposing them had rough parity.

    In 1941, Germany invaded Russia with 3.8 million troops, against an initial 2.5-3 million Russian troops. The Germans had between 3 and 4 thousand tanks facing Russia at the start.

    Russia invaded Ukraine with just 150k troops. I cannot find numbers for Ukrainian fighting troops, but before the war they had over 240k troops, and that will be increasing as civilians are trained.

    The numbers seem rather small.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521
    On topic, Sunak does seem to be toast amongst Conservative activists. Like @Leon in the last thread, I believe this is due mainly to a blue-on-blue hatchet job by Conservative rivals, possibly by Team Big Dog. Fortunately, though possibly by mistake, I've not backed him.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 8,968

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
    What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers

    That’s taken from a very long thread, which also convincingly describes how this invasion was almost exactly modelled on Czechoslovakia ‘68. Except that used 500k soldiers - and Czechoslovakian hadn’t spent over half a decade preparing to fight it.
    One thing that surprises me are the relatively low troop numbers involved.


    In comparison, Napoleon invaded Russia with >600k troops, and he had many more tied down in the Peninsular War. The Russian army opposing them had rough parity.

    In 1941, Germany invaded Russia with 3.8 million troops, against an initial 2.5-3 million Russian troops. The Germans had between 3 and 4 thousand tanks facing Russia at the start.

    Russia invaded Ukraine with just 150k troops. I cannot find numbers for Ukrainian fighting troops, but before the war they had over 240k troops, and that will be increasing as civilians are trained.

    The numbers seem rather small.
    Russia saw this as effectively a sort of policing action, rather than total war, so not necessitating mobilization of the entire country.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420

    On topic, Sunak does seem to be toast amongst Conservative activists. Like @Leon in the last thread, I believe this is due mainly to a blue-on-blue hatchet job by Conservative rivals, possibly by Team Big Dog. Fortunately, though possibly by mistake, I've not backed him.

    It may even reach the point again where Sunak is value, but I think he has missed his chance.

    Big Dog is incompetent at everything that he does, from the personal to the political, but with one exception in the ruthless pursuit of power.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    Ed Dave arguing for tax cuts and increased public spending.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,094
    edited April 6
    "You deserve better."

    I noticed the slogan a few years ago when it cropped up in advertising on a regular basis. My first thought was "Why?" I should waste money on some expensive frippery because I'm special, and I can afford it?

    Perhaps it's a generational divide?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Until Iraq Blair's government wasn't doing too badly, certainly as far as image was concerned. For example, Robin Cook, as Foreign Sec, at least portrayed an image of someone with a conscience.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    edited April 6
    CD13 said:

    "You deserve better."

    I noticed the slogan a few years ago when it cropped up in advertising on a regular basis. My first thought was "Why?" I should waste money on some expensive frippery because I'm special, and I can afford it?

    Perhaps it's a generational divide?

    Yes, it doesn't work for my austere Calvinist soul either.

    "You're not as good as you think you are, so need to work harder" is a great driver of the work ethic, but a terrible political slogan!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    "You deserve better."

    I noticed the slogan a few years ago when it cropped up in advertising on a regular basis. My first thought was "Why?" I should waste money on some expensive frippery because I'm special, and I can afford it?

    Perhaps it's a generational divide?

    Yes, it doesn't work for my austere Calvinist soul either.

    "You're not as good as you think you are, so need to work harder" is a great driver of the work ethic, but a terrible political slogan!
    Even as a work ethic it can rebound. Generally speaking 'work smarter' as opposed to 'work harder' is more useful. Orwell made Boxer into somewhat of a figure of fun.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,453
    Nigelb said:

    This would have been unbelievable a little while ago.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BillPascrell/status/1511451715815583753
    Just now 63 House republicans - nearly one-third of the entire gop caucus - voted against support for NATO “as an alliance founded on democratic principles.” The GOP truly is Putin’s Party.

    It isn't really correct to conclude from this that the GOP are Putin's party. From what I can see, there was a minority (a third) who dissented from the idea that the NATO is an alliance founded on democratic principles.

    I don't know the full context, and accept that there is a Putin sympathising faction in the GOP, but it doesn't seem like they are that prevalent.

    If anything Republican support for NATO may have strengthened, from the low point during the Trump administration. It is looking in far better shape than it ever did before.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    "Vladimir Putin is trying to build a Russian empire stretching ‘from Vladivostok to Lisbon’, his attack dog Dmitry Medvedev warned on Tuesday amid Western fears that Moscow is planning a massive new military offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

    Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council as well as a former president, said in a Telegram post that Putin had launched his brutal invasion of the former Soviet republic to bring peace to Ukraine, in further signs that the Russian warmonger has become increasingly deranged."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10689353/Ukraine-war-Putins-endgame-Moscow-led-empire-Vladivostok-Lisbon.htm
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 6
    I like Penny Mordaunt. However, even after a Johnson defeat will the Conservative Party come back to the centre ground? I doubt it. Perhaps the party will split.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Dr ydoethur ...... yes I realise that's a tautology ..... an interesting snippet of conversation with Granddaughter-in-law yesterday, which reflects on the demands on teachers. She teaches Sociology (among other things) to Year 13 and was asked, as the school broke up for Easter, on what days would she be available for one-to-one tutorials over the 'holidays'.

    A thought for those who don't recognise the demands on teachers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521
    Doctors forced into retirement after receiving £9,000 pension tax bills
    More than 15,000 NHS workers handed enormous pension tax bills

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/doctors-forced-retirement-receiving-9000-pension-tax-bills/ (£££)

    The paywalled article says that one third of those who exceeded the pension contribution annual allowance work for the NHS. Because doctors are highly paid, the allowance is only £4,000, and their pension contributions rise automatically with salary and even overtime. This is not new news, it has been known about for years, but is perhaps a timely reminder of government roadblocks as the NHS struggles to clear its backlog.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,453
    Andy_JS said:

    "Vladimir Putin is trying to build a Russian empire stretching ‘from Vladivostok to Lisbon’, his attack dog Dmitry Medvedev warned on Tuesday amid Western fears that Moscow is planning a massive new military offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

    Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council as well as a former president, said in a Telegram post that Putin had launched his brutal invasion of the former Soviet republic to bring peace to Ukraine, in further signs that the Russian warmonger has become increasingly deranged."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10689353/Ukraine-war-Putins-endgame-Moscow-led-empire-Vladivostok-Lisbon.htm

    The blow from their experience in Ukraine must be terrible.

    This stuff used to sound vaguely threatening - now it is just absurd and ridiculous.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    Dr ydoethur ...... yes I realise that's a tautology ..... an interesting snippet of conversation with Granddaughter-in-law yesterday, which reflects on the demands on teachers. She teaches Sociology (among other things) to Year 13 and was asked, as the school broke up for Easter, on what days would she be available for one-to-one tutorials over the 'holidays'.

    A thought for those who don't recognise the demands on teachers.

    The individual who most needs to understand that on these boards isn't really capable of thinking...

    My school is running revision sessions over Easter, and paying staff for them. But not many people have signed up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    ydoethur said:

    Dr ydoethur ...... yes I realise that's a tautology ..... an interesting snippet of conversation with Granddaughter-in-law yesterday, which reflects on the demands on teachers. She teaches Sociology (among other things) to Year 13 and was asked, as the school broke up for Easter, on what days would she be available for one-to-one tutorials over the 'holidays'.

    A thought for those who don't recognise the demands on teachers.

    The individual who most needs to understand that on these boards isn't really capable of thinking...

    My school is running revision sessions over Easter, and paying staff for them. But not many people have signed up.
    'not many people have signed up'; staff or pupils?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420

    Doctors forced into retirement after receiving £9,000 pension tax bills
    More than 15,000 NHS workers handed enormous pension tax bills

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/doctors-forced-retirement-receiving-9000-pension-tax-bills/ (£££)

    The paywalled article says that one third of those who exceeded the pension contribution annual allowance work for the NHS. Because doctors are highly paid, the allowance is only £4,000, and their pension contributions rise automatically with salary and even overtime. This is not new news, it has been known about for years, but is perhaps a timely reminder of government roadblocks as the NHS struggles to clear its backlog.

    Though after tax year 20-21, which is the one paid in Jan 22, the annual allowance taper isn't so severe.

    One of many reasons that some colleagues are cutting hours or not wanting extra shifts.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
    What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers

    That’s taken from a very long thread, which also convincingly describes how this invasion was almost exactly modelled on Czechoslovakia ‘68. Except that used 500k soldiers - and Czechoslovakian hadn’t spent over half a decade preparing to fight it.
    One thing that surprises me are the relatively low troop numbers involved.


    In comparison, Napoleon invaded Russia with >600k troops, and he had many more tied down in the Peninsular War. The Russian army opposing them had rough parity.

    In 1941, Germany invaded Russia with 3.8 million troops, against an initial 2.5-3 million Russian troops. The Germans had between 3 and 4 thousand tanks facing Russia at the start.

    Russia invaded Ukraine with just 150k troops. I cannot find numbers for Ukrainian fighting troops, but before the war they had over 240k troops, and that will be increasing as civilians are trained.

    The numbers seem rather small.
    It has been suggested (which is code for, I now cannot find the reference) that we tend to over-estimate the size of the Russian army by using numbers that include the other branches of the Russian armed forces. 150 to 200,000 soldiers in Ukraine is probably most of their professional (ie non-conscript) army.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    Morning all, keep laying the favourite!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    This would have been unbelievable a little while ago.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BillPascrell/status/1511451715815583753
    Just now 63 House republicans - nearly one-third of the entire gop caucus - voted against support for NATO “as an alliance founded on democratic principles.” The GOP truly is Putin’s Party.

    It isn't really correct to conclude from this that the GOP are Putin's party. From what I can see, there was a minority (a third) who dissented from the idea that the NATO is an alliance founded on democratic principles.

    I don't know the full context, and accept that there is a Putin sympathising faction in the GOP, but it doesn't seem like they are that prevalent.

    If anything Republican support for NATO may have strengthened, from the low point during the Trump administration. It is looking in far better shape than it ever did before.

    Surely NATO was not founded on democratic principles even if it evolved towards them. Spain was under Franco for several decades of membership, and a number of other countries at times too.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,712

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    I assume that Labour won't copy the Tories and simply deny it exists then blame anyone feeling poor for their own problems as Britain is Booming under Boris.

    Labour may not need many details. Just being seen to get it may be enough when the government clearly doesn't
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    edited April 6

    ydoethur said:

    Dr ydoethur ...... yes I realise that's a tautology ..... an interesting snippet of conversation with Granddaughter-in-law yesterday, which reflects on the demands on teachers. She teaches Sociology (among other things) to Year 13 and was asked, as the school broke up for Easter, on what days would she be available for one-to-one tutorials over the 'holidays'.

    A thought for those who don't recognise the demands on teachers.

    The individual who most needs to understand that on these boards isn't really capable of thinking...

    My school is running revision sessions over Easter, and paying staff for them. But not many people have signed up.
    'not many people have signed up'; staff or pupils?
    Plenty of staff have signed up, as they want the extra money. Pupils, however, are either themselves busy working to earn extra money or looking forward to time off and don't seem to be as interested.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
    What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers

    That’s taken from a very long thread, which also convincingly describes how this invasion was almost exactly modelled on Czechoslovakia ‘68. Except that used 500k soldiers - and Czechoslovakian hadn’t spent over half a decade preparing to fight it.
    One thing that surprises me are the relatively low troop numbers involved.


    In comparison, Napoleon invaded Russia with >600k troops, and he had many more tied down in the Peninsular War. The Russian army opposing them had rough parity.

    In 1941, Germany invaded Russia with 3.8 million troops, against an initial 2.5-3 million Russian troops. The Germans had between 3 and 4 thousand tanks facing Russia at the start.

    Russia invaded Ukraine with just 150k troops. I cannot find numbers for Ukrainian fighting troops, but before the war they had over 240k troops, and that will be increasing as civilians are trained.

    The numbers seem rather small.
    It has been suggested (which is code for, I now cannot find the reference) that we tend to over-estimate the size of the Russian army by using numbers that include the other branches of the Russian armed forces. 150 to 200,000 soldiers in Ukraine is probably most of their professional (ie non-conscript) army.
    I wonder if we look a6 the enormous land mass which is 'Russia" and think that they must have an enormous army. Does mean, of course, that they've a very long border to guard.
    Do they have any border disputes in Asia, apart from that with Japan?
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 131
    Tugendhat and Hunt are former remainers. Unless one of them was imposed by MPs as Michael Howard was I would rate their chances of winning a vote amongst Conservative members as approximately nil.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Vladimir Putin is trying to build a Russian empire stretching ‘from Vladivostok to Lisbon’, his attack dog Dmitry Medvedev warned on Tuesday amid Western fears that Moscow is planning a massive new military offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

    Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council as well as a former president, said in a Telegram post that Putin had launched his brutal invasion of the former Soviet republic to bring peace to Ukraine, in further signs that the Russian warmonger has become increasingly deranged."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10689353/Ukraine-war-Putins-endgame-Moscow-led-empire-Vladivostok-Lisbon.htm

    The blow from their experience in Ukraine must be terrible.

    This stuff used to sound vaguely threatening - now it is just absurd and ridiculous.

    Given that the Russian army and Air Force have lost around 10% of their claimed men and equipment (it’s going to be nearer 20% in practice, because half the kit is old crap and half the men are barely-trained reservists), in little over a month in Ukraine, the rest of the world has little to worry about at this point.

    Many of the reports of missile strikes in recent days, have been accompanied by images of unexploded warheads half-buried in the ground. They’re out of reliable long-range ordnance.

    All they have left is the CBN threats, and I think even the Russian generals know what will be the Western response to any use of those.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002
    edited April 6

    On topic, Sunak does seem to be toast amongst Conservative activists. Like @Leon in the last thread, I believe this is due mainly to a blue-on-blue hatchet job by Conservative rivals, possibly by Team Big Dog. Fortunately, though possibly by mistake, I've not backed him.

    And Sunak failed to act when he had the chance, as Partygate raged. Revealing a touch of the Gordon Browns - never a good look for a senior politician.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Vladimir Putin is trying to build a Russian empire stretching ‘from Vladivostok to Lisbon’, his attack dog Dmitry Medvedev warned on Tuesday amid Western fears that Moscow is planning a massive new military offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

    Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council as well as a former president, said in a Telegram post that Putin had launched his brutal invasion of the former Soviet republic to bring peace to Ukraine, in further signs that the Russian warmonger has become increasingly deranged."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10689353/Ukraine-war-Putins-endgame-Moscow-led-empire-Vladivostok-Lisbon.htm

    The blow from their experience in Ukraine must be terrible.

    This stuff used to sound vaguely threatening - now it is just absurd and ridiculous.

    Given that the Russian army and Air Force have lost around 10% of their claimed men and equipment (it’s going to be nearer 20% in practice, because half the kit is old crap and half the men are barely-trained reservists), in little over a month in Ukraine, the rest of the world has little to worry about at this point.

    Many of the reports of missile strikes in recent days, have been accompanied by images of unexploded warheads half-buried in the ground. They’re out of reliable long-range ordnance.

    All they have left is the CBN threats, and I think even the Russian generals know what will be the Western response to any use of those.
    I suspect the Russian generals are somewhat more aware of the reality of the situation that their political leader. Which is why they've withdrawn to the Donbass.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521
    One odd misstep from Rishi is that NIC rises come this month but threshold increases, which will ease the burden for the low-paid, do not take effect till July. You'd have thought a more politically-attuned Chancellor would have made the dates coincide, unless this is a diabolical plot to increase Conservative losses on the 5th of May.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60996174
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    COVID case rates hit highest ever level in England, influential React study finds http://news.sky.com/story/covid-case-rates-hit-highest-ever-level-in-england-influential-react-study-finds-12583279

    Latest Omicron BA.2 wave is hitting the NHS with hospitalisations + staff off sick.
    Yet we haven't seen Whitty/Vallance or @sajidjavid use that £2.6m Downing Street press briefing room since February.

    Govt policy seems to be: "don't mention the wards"

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/chris-whitty-patrick-vallance-back-tv-cope-covid-wave-1557525
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    tlg86 said:

    Ed Dave arguing for tax cuts and increased public spending.

    Or, as it might also be described, higher inflation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 8,968
    There is a bit more speculation about a coup being planned in Russia to depose Putin.

    Much as I would celebrate the end of Putin, if such a coup does occur it will be vitally important to determine if the coup arose because those involved decided that invading Ukraine was a mistake, or that it was poorly organised and implemented.

    This would make a huge difference to where Russia went next.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,712

    One odd misstep from Rishi is that NIC rises come this month but threshold increases, which will ease the burden for the low-paid, do not take effect till July. You'd have thought a more politically-attuned Chancellor would have made the dates coincide, unless this is a diabolical plot to increase Conservative losses on the 5th of May.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60996174

    That's an interesting angle. Apply the pressure on the boss by applying the tax wrecking ball. Hence the absurdity of not being able to say how energy bills would look in 6 months but being clear he can cut income tax just before the election.

    As people start seeing their hard-earned money disappearing in higher food and fuel and tax bills the only possible positive would be if money was being surged into communities and services.

    An NI rise to pay for improvements in the NHS may be tolerable. Higher cost of living but they're rebuilding our moribund town centre may be a trade that could be spun.

    Instead they continue to claim services getting better and towns being invested in whilst people can see that things are getting worse and no money is being invested. Incompetent lies not a good look.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521
    edited April 6

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511529585954885638
    What if we overestimate Russian army simply because it is not being questioned by the laymen? American military machine for example is being constantly criticised by the media, think-tanks and the expertocracy which is only partially comprised by the (former) career officers

    That’s taken from a very long thread, which also convincingly describes how this invasion was almost exactly modelled on Czechoslovakia ‘68. Except that used 500k soldiers - and Czechoslovakian hadn’t spent over half a decade preparing to fight it.
    One thing that surprises me are the relatively low troop numbers involved.


    In comparison, Napoleon invaded Russia with >600k troops, and he had many more tied down in the Peninsular War. The Russian army opposing them had rough parity.

    In 1941, Germany invaded Russia with 3.8 million troops, against an initial 2.5-3 million Russian troops. The Germans had between 3 and 4 thousand tanks facing Russia at the start.

    Russia invaded Ukraine with just 150k troops. I cannot find numbers for Ukrainian fighting troops, but before the war they had over 240k troops, and that will be increasing as civilians are trained.

    The numbers seem rather small.
    It has been suggested (which is code for, I now cannot find the reference) that we tend to over-estimate the size of the Russian army by using numbers that include the other branches of the Russian armed forces. 150 to 200,000 soldiers in Ukraine is probably most of their professional (ie non-conscript) army.
    I wonder if we look a6 the enormous land mass which is 'Russia" and think that they must have an enormous army. Does mean, of course, that they've a very long border to guard.
    Do they have any border disputes in Asia, apart from that with Japan?
    China is said to have its eye on part of Siberia, and Russia is convinced it is threatened in the south, west and even north by Nato. As you say, Russia is very, very big and deploying all its forces in one place would leave large parts of the country unguarded.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206

    Doctors forced into retirement after receiving £9,000 pension tax bills
    More than 15,000 NHS workers handed enormous pension tax bills

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/doctors-forced-retirement-receiving-9000-pension-tax-bills/ (£££)

    The paywalled article says that one third of those who exceeded the pension contribution annual allowance work for the NHS. Because doctors are highly paid, the allowance is only £4,000, and their pension contributions rise automatically with salary and even overtime. This is not new news, it has been known about for years, but is perhaps a timely reminder of government roadblocks as the NHS struggles to clear its backlog.

    It’s also a reminder, to the private-sector layman, of the relative absurdity of public sector pensions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    CD13 said:

    "You deserve better."

    I noticed the slogan a few years ago when it cropped up in advertising on a regular basis. My first thought was "Why?" I should waste money on some expensive frippery because I'm special, and I can afford it?

    Perhaps it's a generational divide?

    A good question.

    On the other hand, "because you're worthless" isn't the most persuasive of political slogans.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002

    One odd misstep from Rishi is that NIC rises come this month but threshold increases, which will ease the burden for the low-paid, do not take effect till July. You'd have thought a more politically-attuned Chancellor would have made the dates coincide, unless this is a diabolical plot to increase Conservative losses on the 5th of May.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60996174

    The second was a last minute idea, intended to square the circle in the argument between the PM and Chancellor, and there wasn’t time left enough to implement it in April.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited April 6
    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Exactly.

    'One of their strongest allies.' But what has he actually done? Nothing but posturing. As usual.

    The one thing Johnson excels at is photo ops, which enables him to give the impression of doing lots about everything. Beneath the charade there is nothing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521

    There is a bit more speculation about a coup being planned in Russia to depose Putin.

    Much as I would celebrate the end of Putin, if such a coup does occur it will be vitally important to determine if the coup arose because those involved decided that invading Ukraine was a mistake, or that it was poorly organised and implemented.

    This would make a huge difference to where Russia went next.

    Yes, as iirc Dominic Cummings suggested, there is no reason to suppose a palace coup would necessarily result in a president interested in peace, rapprochement or democracy. They might even, as Putin is said to, be nostalgic for the cold war when Russia (or the Soviet Union) was economically independent from, and feared by, the West.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    Sorry ... needed to get that off my rather wounded chest.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    The Economist now makes it 52/48 wrt their French election polling average.

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,801
    Foxy said:

    Doctors forced into retirement after receiving £9,000 pension tax bills
    More than 15,000 NHS workers handed enormous pension tax bills

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/doctors-forced-retirement-receiving-9000-pension-tax-bills/ (£££)

    The paywalled article says that one third of those who exceeded the pension contribution annual allowance work for the NHS. Because doctors are highly paid, the allowance is only £4,000, and their pension contributions rise automatically with salary and even overtime. This is not new news, it has been known about for years, but is perhaps a timely reminder of government roadblocks as the NHS struggles to clear its backlog.

    Though after tax year 20-21, which is the one paid in Jan 22, the annual allowance taper isn't so severe.

    One of many reasons that some colleagues are cutting hours or not wanting extra shifts.
    Whats this, highly paid people not wanting to pay too much tax.

    I always thought taxing the better paid more was the way to increase public spending easily and everyone wanted that.

    Its odd that people will do what they can to avoid paying tax, whilst moaning at the Government for not increasing public spending.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    I wonder what attracts so many nonces to the Royal Family?



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/friend-and-adviser-how-jimmy-savile-fixed-it-for-the-royals-sgpzqlknd

    The way things are going for Sunak at present it'll emerge he used to work for Savile.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    Heathener said:

    So a sorry little tale here.

    I had a bad fall yesterday. I'm not decrepit and ancient. I keep myself fit but somehow I managed to miss my footing and ended up being sent to A&E by a doctor.

    What an utter mess. The 5 hour wait was pushed back to 8 hours and in the end I just gave up and came back home to catch a short sleep.

    This country has gone to the dogs. The sooner the tories are booted out the better for everyone except the Far Right lunatics. They are wrecking this county with their blind dogma.

    Fuck Boris. Fuck the tories.

    Sorry to hear about this. Hope you make a full recovery as soon as possible.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,258
    Does India lack confidence in its relationship with Russia? Can't they see that the Russians are now the supplicants in this partnership? Perhaps they feel that damaging relations with Moscow would make them too reliant on the west. Or do they craftily sense an opportunity with a weak Russia?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    Heathener said:

    So a sorry little tale here.

    I had a bad fall yesterday. I'm not decrepit and ancient. I keep myself fit but somehow I managed to miss my footing and ended up being sent to A&E by a doctor.

    What an utter mess. The 5 hour wait was pushed back to 8 hours and in the end I just gave up and came back home to catch a short sleep.

    This country has gone to the dogs. The sooner the tories are booted out the better for everyone except the Far Right lunatics. They are wrecking this county with their blind dogma.

    Fuck Boris. Fuck the tories.

    Sorry to hear about that, and I hope you recover quickly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521

    I wonder what attracts so many nonces to the Royal Family?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/friend-and-adviser-how-jimmy-savile-fixed-it-for-the-royals-sgpzqlknd

    The way things are going for Sunak at present it'll emerge he used to work for Savile.

    It is Savile's closeness to senior Conservative ministers, including the Prime Minister, and the Royal Family that makes me sceptical of claims that the great and the good (and also the BBC) knew what Savile was up to. Unless MI5 were also in on it, and then we are just a hop, skip and a jump away from armed vigilantes raiding pizza parlours.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371

    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Exactly.

    'One of their strongest allies.' But what has he actually done? Nothing but posturing. As usual.

    The one thing Johnson excels at is photo ops, which enables him to give the impression of doing lots about everything. beneath the charade there is nothing.
    We know that Johnson and Zelenskyy are in contact with each other several times a day.
    Says whom?

    I bet you that is more bollocks coming from Johnson.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    edited April 6
    Compare with Boris' non existent broadband revolution.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1511595916775641089
    Ukrainian internet providers are super-fragmented. Every small city has multiple companies installing fibers. This drove down costs. My 1,000Mbs connection with TV service (including Formula1 broadcast) was $10/month in Kyiv.

    This may be a good thing during this war.


    Not sure you'd see this from Openreach.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1511595916775641089
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206

    Does India lack confidence in its relationship with Russia? Can't they see that the Russians are now the supplicants in this partnership? Perhaps they feel that damaging relations with Moscow would make them too reliant on the west. Or do they craftily sense an opportunity with a weak Russia?

    India and China are both hovering like hawks, over what’s going to be left of the Russian economy when this all plays out. Which will mostly be the mineral deposits.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747

    Does India lack confidence in its relationship with Russia? Can't they see that the Russians are now the supplicants in this partnership? Perhaps they feel that damaging relations with Moscow would make them too reliant on the west. Or do they craftily sense an opportunity with a weak Russia?

    I think India's position comes from a whole host of competing factors. A big one is their rather large military partnership with Russia - which goes from aircraft carriers to aircraft. I think India buys about half of their military equipment from Russia, and they were gaining a lot of knowledge in high-tech weaponry from the Russians. There's also a requirement to do differently to Pakistan, who were firmly in the US sphere when it comes to military equipment (now China), and an understandable anti-imperial feeling.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,453
    edited April 6
    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    This would have been unbelievable a little while ago.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BillPascrell/status/1511451715815583753
    Just now 63 House republicans - nearly one-third of the entire gop caucus - voted against support for NATO “as an alliance founded on democratic principles.” The GOP truly is Putin’s Party.

    It isn't really correct to conclude from this that the GOP are Putin's party. From what I can see, there was a minority (a third) who dissented from the idea that the NATO is an alliance founded on democratic principles.

    I don't know the full context, and accept that there is a Putin sympathising faction in the GOP, but it doesn't seem like they are that prevalent.

    If anything Republican support for NATO may have strengthened, from the low point during the Trump administration. It is looking in far better shape than it ever did before.

    Surely NATO was not founded on democratic principles even if it evolved towards them. Spain was under Franco for several decades of membership, and a number of other countries at times too.
    Yes I was pondering the same. Perhaps NATO membership acts as a brake in terms of countries straying to far in to authoritarianism - Turkey is a particularly difficult case. There is a lot to be concerned about re Erdogan, but he did have to see off a (supposedly pro western) coup.

    I would say that the experience of Ukraine is such that NATO membership is an essential prerequisite for peace in Europe. Otherwise some dickhead like Putin or one of his successors will come along and try and pick off the countries one by one. I think it is just an inevitable consequence of Russian 'strategic culture', that this will be the case.

    The Russians have bought this containment upon themselves. If they can be walled off and excluded from co-operation, then they are less likely to be successful in infiltrating the politics and culture of Europe.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002
    edited April 6

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    The extent of Johnson's (and his party's) entanglement with Russian wealth is a slow burn story that will likely be running when the immediate military crisis is over. The Russians will have thought all that time grooming him might have been worth something; another misjudgement since the only reaction that would save his skin, at least in the short term, was to go over the top in the other direction.

    Training the Ukranians was a decision taken by the Coalition, which I doubt the clown was even aware of until it came to matter.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,521
    Andy_JS said:

    The Economist now makes it 52/48 wrt their French election polling average.

    https://www.economist.com/interactive/france-2022

    That ratio looks horribly familiar.

    Much closer and a lot of PBers will need to reverse ferret their criticisms of Andrew Neil.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Vladimir Putin is trying to build a Russian empire stretching ‘from Vladivostok to Lisbon’, his attack dog Dmitry Medvedev warned on Tuesday amid Western fears that Moscow is planning a massive new military offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

    Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council as well as a former president, said in a Telegram post that Putin had launched his brutal invasion of the former Soviet republic to bring peace to Ukraine, in further signs that the Russian warmonger has become increasingly deranged."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10689353/Ukraine-war-Putins-endgame-Moscow-led-empire-Vladivostok-Lisbon.htm

    The blow from their experience in Ukraine must be terrible.

    This stuff used to sound vaguely threatening - now it is just absurd and ridiculous.

    Given that the Russian army and Air Force have lost around 10% of their claimed men and equipment (it’s going to be nearer 20% in practice, because half the kit is old crap and half the men are barely-trained reservists), in little over a month in Ukraine, the rest of the world has little to worry about at this point.

    Many of the reports of missile strikes in recent days, have been accompanied by images of unexploded warheads half-buried in the ground. They’re out of reliable long-range ordnance.

    All they have left is the CBN threats, and I think even the Russian generals know what will be the Western response to any use of those.
    IANAE, but I believe that many of the images of unexploded warheads half-buried in the ground" are actually missiles that have deployed their payload, then go on to crash. I.e. at that point they had no warhead.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    I feel that my paucity of sleep may contribute to an excess of grumpiness by me on here so I shall exit stage left, hopefully not pursued by a bear.

    After the chaos in A&E last night I'm not in a good mood with Boris Johnson and co. though to be fair I wasn't exactly their biggest fan beforehand. The NHS is in such a terrible state. Because people can't get GP appointments they attend A&E for things like basic wound dressings. Was I one of those? Apparently not according to the emergency doctor who spoke to me. But the situation is just complete chaos.

    I think back 30 years, 20 years, 10 years ... how was Britain then compared to now?

    Scores out of 100 on all things of well-being:

    1992 70 (pre Black Wednesday)

    2002 75 (post 9/11 otherwise higher)

    2012 75 (The coalition. Bliss.)

    2022 2 (and I think that's being generous)


    The country is shit

    Right I'm dragging my tired wounded body back to bed. Apologies for incoherence. Some will doubtless say that it's no different from normal ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    The extent of Johnson's (and his party's) entanglement with Russian wealth is a slow burn story that will likely be running when the immediate military crisis is over. The Russians will have thought all that time grooming him might have been worth something; another misjudgement since the only reaction that would save his skin, at least in the short term, was to go over the top in the other direction.

    Training the Ukranians was a decision taken by the Coalition, which I doubt the clown was even aware of until it came to matter.
    Oh, come on. You are being ridiculous. Operation Orbital was extended in 2019 and expanded in 2020, well before this war. The idea Johnson knew nothing of it is a little ridiculous.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 8,968

    Does India lack confidence in its relationship with Russia? Can't they see that the Russians are now the supplicants in this partnership? Perhaps they feel that damaging relations with Moscow would make them too reliant on the west. Or do they craftily sense an opportunity with a weak Russia?

    I listened to this podcast on the Indian relationship with Russia, and their response to the invasion of Ukraine, and it's complicated. Geopolitically, this seems fairly close to a worst-case scenario for India to deal with, for a variety of reasons:

    1. They have a strong defence relationship with both Ukraine and Russia.
    2. They have a strong bilateral relationship with Ukraine - e.g. very large numbers of Indian students go to Ukrainian universities.
    3. They see a close relationship with Russia as a vital defence against China.
    4. The geopolitical outcome they most want to avoid is a close relationship between Russia and China.
    5. They really want to continue to improve relations with the US as a defence against China.

    Russia itself certainly wouldn't want to become too reliant on China, and so the relationship with India is useful to Russia, but it's hard not to conclude that the relationship between Russia and India is more important to India than to Russia, notwithstanding Russia's current lack of friends, and that puts India in a very difficult position right now. As far as I can make out, a central plank of their geopolitical strategy has been to have a stronger Russia-India relationship than the Russia-China relationship, and that now looks like a failure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    Exactly, he has had nothing to do with the war other than send some supplies and get shown up as Billy no mates at EU meeting.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080
    edited April 6

    Foxy said:

    Doctors forced into retirement after receiving £9,000 pension tax bills
    More than 15,000 NHS workers handed enormous pension tax bills

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/doctors-forced-retirement-receiving-9000-pension-tax-bills/ (£££)

    The paywalled article says that one third of those who exceeded the pension contribution annual allowance work for the NHS. Because doctors are highly paid, the allowance is only £4,000, and their pension contributions rise automatically with salary and even overtime. This is not new news, it has been known about for years, but is perhaps a timely reminder of government roadblocks as the NHS struggles to clear its backlog.

    Though after tax year 20-21, which is the one paid in Jan 22, the annual allowance taper isn't so severe.

    One of many reasons that some colleagues are cutting hours or not wanting extra shifts.
    Whats this, highly paid people not wanting to pay too much tax.

    I always thought taxing the better paid more was the way to increase public spending easily and everyone wanted that.

    Its odd that people will do what they can to avoid paying tax, whilst moaning at the Government for not increasing public spending.
    Not when the effective tax rate exceeds 100% for doing extra work. There is a limit to the commitment. I don't believe you approve of this level of tax.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    Pmsl
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    The extent of Johnson's (and his party's) entanglement with Russian wealth is a slow burn story that will likely be running when the immediate military crisis is over. The Russians will have thought all that time grooming him might have been worth something; another misjudgement since the only reaction that would save his skin, at least in the short term, was to go over the top in the other direction.

    Training the Ukranians was a decision taken by the Coalition, which I doubt the clown was even aware of until it came to matter.
    Oh, come on. You are being ridiculous. Operation Orbital was extended in 2019 and expanded in 2020, well before this war. The idea Johnson knew nothing of it is a little ridiculous.
    No it isn't. You forget, I've spent time with him both in public and private. His lack of awareness as to where he is, what he's supposed to be doing and the history and background to anything is closer to zero than in anyone I've ever met.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    Heathener said:

    I feel that my paucity of sleep may contribute to an excess of grumpiness by me on here so I shall exit stage left, hopefully not pursued by a bear.

    After the chaos in A&E last night I'm not in a good mood with Boris Johnson and co. though to be fair I wasn't exactly their biggest fan beforehand. The NHS is in such a terrible state. Because people can't get GP appointments they attend A&E for things like basic wound dressings. Was I one of those? Apparently not according to the emergency doctor who spoke to me. But the situation is just complete chaos.

    I think back 30 years, 20 years, 10 years ... how was Britain then compared to now?

    Scores out of 100 on all things of well-being:

    1992 70 (pre Black Wednesday)

    2002 75 (post 9/11 otherwise higher)

    2012 75 (The coalition. Bliss.)

    2022 2 (and I think that's being generous)


    The country is shit

    Right I'm dragging my tired wounded body back to bed. Apologies for incoherence. Some will doubtless say that it's no different from normal ;)

    The country is not, as you put it, 'shit'. There is a great deal to take pride of in this country, our people, and its place in the world. That does not mean we are immune to criticism, or that we are perfect. Just that we are facing severe problems in Covid, Brexit and the effects of the Ukraine war. Of these, Brexit is the most minor.

    But Covid and the effects of the Ukraine war are common to a large number of countries in Europe and the world.

    And hope you feel better soon.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,258

    Does India lack confidence in its relationship with Russia? Can't they see that the Russians are now the supplicants in this partnership? Perhaps they feel that damaging relations with Moscow would make them too reliant on the west. Or do they craftily sense an opportunity with a weak Russia?

    I listened to this podcast on the Indian relationship with Russia, and their response to the invasion of Ukraine, and it's complicated. Geopolitically, this seems fairly close to a worst-case scenario for India to deal with, for a variety of reasons:

    1. They have a strong defence relationship with both Ukraine and Russia.
    2. They have a strong bilateral relationship with Ukraine - e.g. very large numbers of Indian students go to Ukrainian universities.
    3. They see a close relationship with Russia as a vital defence against China.
    4. The geopolitical outcome they most want to avoid is a close relationship between Russia and China.
    5. They really want to continue to improve relations with the US as a defence against China.

    Russia itself certainly wouldn't want to become too reliant on China, and so the relationship with India is useful to Russia, but it's hard not to conclude that the relationship between Russia and India is more important to India than to Russia, notwithstanding Russia's current lack of friends, and that puts India in a very difficult position right now. As far as I can make out, a central plank of their geopolitical strategy has been to have a stronger Russia-India relationship than the Russia-China relationship, and that now looks like a failure.
    But the closeness of the Russia China relationship (you might even call it a 'special' relationship) is Putin's sycophancy towards Beijing. The west has an awful lot more to offer India than Russia does.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    The extent of Johnson's (and his party's) entanglement with Russian wealth is a slow burn story that will likely be running when the immediate military crisis is over. The Russians will have thought all that time grooming him might have been worth something; another misjudgement since the only reaction that would save his skin, at least in the short term, was to go over the top in the other direction.

    Training the Ukranians was a decision taken by the Coalition, which I doubt the clown was even aware of until it came to matter.
    Oh, come on. You are being ridiculous. Operation Orbital was extended in 2019 and expanded in 2020, well before this war. The idea Johnson knew nothing of it is a little ridiculous.
    No it isn't. You forget, I've spent time with him both in public and private. His lack of awareness as to where he is, what he's supposed to be doing and the history and background to anything is closer to zero than in anyone I've ever met.
    And you seem a rather impartial observer. Compare, say, with Nick's interactions with him, which seemed a lot fairer and nearer to the real Johnson (fnarr, fnarr).

    (Jesus. People's irrational hatred of Johnson is turning me, someone who was criticising him before most on here, and who has never voted for him, into a defended of him!)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Ed Dave arguing for tax cuts and increased public spending.

    Or, as it might also be described, higher inflation.
    Good morning

    Listening to him this morning he is suggesting vat is cut to 17.5% and he admitted it would cost a mere 18 billion

    It does seem the opposition have completely blanked out the cost of covid and how giving a vat cut to the wealthy is progressive

    I am a stern critic of Rishi since his ill fated budget but this vat cut is simply not an answer

    Targeted help to those most in need should be the desire of all politicians in this crisis
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    Pmsl
    Get yoursen some of these:
    https://www.tena.co.uk/women ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Vladimir Putin is trying to build a Russian empire stretching ‘from Vladivostok to Lisbon’, his attack dog Dmitry Medvedev warned on Tuesday amid Western fears that Moscow is planning a massive new military offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine.

    Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council as well as a former president, said in a Telegram post that Putin had launched his brutal invasion of the former Soviet republic to bring peace to Ukraine, in further signs that the Russian warmonger has become increasingly deranged."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10689353/Ukraine-war-Putins-endgame-Moscow-led-empire-Vladivostok-Lisbon.htm

    The blow from their experience in Ukraine must be terrible.

    This stuff used to sound vaguely threatening - now it is just absurd and ridiculous.

    Given that the Russian army and Air Force have lost around 10% of their claimed men and equipment (it’s going to be nearer 20% in practice, because half the kit is old crap and half the men are barely-trained reservists), in little over a month in Ukraine, the rest of the world has little to worry about at this point.

    Many of the reports of missile strikes in recent days, have been accompanied by images of unexploded warheads half-buried in the ground. They’re out of reliable long-range ordnance.

    All they have left is the CBN threats, and I think even the Russian generals know what will be the Western response to any use of those.
    IANAE, but I believe that many of the images of unexploded warheads half-buried in the ground" are actually missiles that have deployed their payload, then go on to crash. I.e. at that point they had no warhead.
    I did think that, but if that were the case there would be nearby explosions which would make for better pictures.

    US intelligence appears to be of a similar view.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/majority-of-russian-missiles-failing-to-launch-explode-us-officials-2022-3

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    edited April 6

    Foxy said:

    Doctors forced into retirement after receiving £9,000 pension tax bills
    More than 15,000 NHS workers handed enormous pension tax bills

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/doctors-forced-retirement-receiving-9000-pension-tax-bills/ (£££)

    The paywalled article says that one third of those who exceeded the pension contribution annual allowance work for the NHS. Because doctors are highly paid, the allowance is only £4,000, and their pension contributions rise automatically with salary and even overtime. This is not new news, it has been known about for years, but is perhaps a timely reminder of government roadblocks as the NHS struggles to clear its backlog.

    Though after tax year 20-21, which is the one paid in Jan 22, the annual allowance taper isn't so severe.

    One of many reasons that some colleagues are cutting hours or not wanting extra shifts.
    Whats this, highly paid people not wanting to pay too much tax.

    I always thought taxing the better paid more was the way to increase public spending easily and everyone wanted that.

    Its odd that people will do what they can to avoid paying tax, whilst moaning at the Government for not increasing public spending.
    I appreciate that you have limited understanding of how this works, or doesn't work.

    The problem is not one of high taxes on income, where by definition the money is there, the pension tax taper produces a tax bill on an increase in a pension pot that cannot be accessed until retirement. Hence a few years ago I got a tax bill for £28,000 on an increase in my pension benefits. This creates cash flow problems, and hence the need to stay under the taper threshold.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    IanB2 said:

    His lack of awareness as to where he is, what he's supposed to be doing and the history and background to anything is closer to zero than in anyone I've ever met.

    He was at parties.

    There was cake, and booze.

    Apparently he didn't know they were parties...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002
    edited April 6

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    The extent of Johnson's (and his party's) entanglement with Russian wealth is a slow burn story that will likely be running when the immediate military crisis is over. The Russians will have thought all that time grooming him might have been worth something; another misjudgement since the only reaction that would save his skin, at least in the short term, was to go over the top in the other direction.

    Training the Ukranians was a decision taken by the Coalition, which I doubt the clown was even aware of until it came to matter.
    Oh, come on. You are being ridiculous. Operation Orbital was extended in 2019 and expanded in 2020, well before this war. The idea Johnson knew nothing of it is a little ridiculous.
    No it isn't. You forget, I've spent time with him both in public and private. His lack of awareness as to where he is, what he's supposed to be doing and the history and background to anything is closer to zero than in anyone I've ever met.
    And you seem a rather impartial observer. Compare, say, with Nick's interactions with him, which seemed a lot fairer and nearer to the real Johnson (fnarr, fnarr).

    (Jesus. People's irrational hatred of Johnson is turning me, someone who was criticising him before most on here, and who has never voted for him, into a defended of him!)
    If it were just me, you might have a point.

    But I invite you to review what a whole stack of people who've interacted with Johnson - professionally and personally - have said, from his schooldays onwards, and to notice his lack of friends and allies. And then consider whether my observations are out of line, or whether maybe it's your reaction.

    The only people who rate him are those who don't know him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    ...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 35,326
    Heathener said:

    So a sorry little tale here.

    I had a bad fall yesterday. I'm not decrepit and ancient. I keep myself fit but somehow I managed to miss my footing and ended up being sent to A&E by a doctor.

    What an utter mess. The 5 hour wait was pushed back to 8 hours and in the end I just gave up and came back home to catch a short sleep.

    This country has gone to the dogs. The sooner the tories are booted out the better for everyone except the Far Right lunatics. They are wrecking this county with their blind dogma.

    Fuck Boris. Fuck the tories.

    Very sorry to hear that. The NHS has been f&&cked for years. It is an institutional problem nothing to do with the Tories. The nature of the NHS means that there is no accountability for waste, inefficiency, or negligence (Ockenden being the exception that proves the rule). You waited first five hours, then eight and so what. Who cares. NHS staff don't. Individually I'm sure they tut and fuss (if you're lucky) but they don't care.

    Of course this is far worse for old people. If an old person is admitted to hospital and dies before they should have again, who cares. No one is going to accuse anyone of hastening, even if by omission, the death of an 80+ yr old.

    So it is an institutional problem and also a taxpayer one. We don't want to pay more for our health service. So we have the worst of all worlds - an underfunded health service and a criminally inefficient one also.

    Hope you feel better soon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405
    Tories getting off far too lightly for their poor stewardship of the economy at the moment. If Labour had presided over this, the Tories would have been far more aggressive. It’s a disaster.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    edited April 6
    Heathener said:

    So a sorry little tale here.

    I had a bad fall yesterday. I'm not decrepit and ancient. I keep myself fit but somehow I managed to miss my footing and ended up being sent to A&E by a doctor.

    What an utter mess. The 5 hour wait was pushed back to 8 hours and in the end I just gave up and came back home to catch a short sleep.

    This country has gone to the dogs. The sooner the tories are booted out the better for everyone except the Far Right lunatics. They are wrecking this county with their blind dogma.

    Fuck Boris. Fuck the tories.

    I am so sorry to hear about your fall and hope you recover quickly

    In regard to your last line, while I would not use the same language here in Wales, Drakeford and labour are a NHS disaster and the last person to fall in our town lay on the pavement for 10 hours

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/pensioner-left-moaning-agony-pavement-23545802
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    The extent of Johnson's (and his party's) entanglement with Russian wealth is a slow burn story that will likely be running when the immediate military crisis is over. The Russians will have thought all that time grooming him might have been worth something; another misjudgement since the only reaction that would save his skin, at least in the short term, was to go over the top in the other direction.

    Training the Ukranians was a decision taken by the Coalition, which I doubt the clown was even aware of until it came to matter.
    Oh, come on. You are being ridiculous. Operation Orbital was extended in 2019 and expanded in 2020, well before this war. The idea Johnson knew nothing of it is a little ridiculous.
    No it isn't. You forget, I've spent time with him both in public and private. His lack of awareness as to where he is, what he's supposed to be doing and the history and background to anything is closer to zero than in anyone I've ever met.
    And you seem a rather impartial observer. Compare, say, with Nick's interactions with him, which seemed a lot fairer and nearer to the real Johnson (fnarr, fnarr).

    (Jesus. People's irrational hatred of Johnson is turning me, someone who was criticising him before most on here, and who has never voted for him, into a defended of him!)
    If it were just me, you might have a point.

    But I invite you to review what a whole stack of people who've interacted with Johnson - professionally and personally - have said, from his schooldays onwards, and to notice his lack of friends and allies.

    The only people who rate him are those who don't know him.
    Yes, someone who lacks friends and allies managed to get himself elected to a number of positions, and became PM. He did that through lacking friends and allies, obviously ...

    Many people in the 2000s were saying how friendly Blair and Brown were, yet we saw that was a lie even before Brown got power.

    Again, I stress I don't think Johnson is a good PM. But neither do I think he's the venal, nasty and lazy one his haters on here make him out to be. He's a flawed individual, but then so was Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, and May.
    He's the most unsuitable person ever to achieve the job. And will come to be widely accepted as such - the derangement syndrome is the desperation of his supporters to see clothes that simply aren't there.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Britain deserves better than this Conservative cost of living crisis."

    Does suggest "Britain deserves a Labour cost of living crisis."

    Utter lack of alternative ways to deal with it.

    You've not watched the video, then? It is a clunky slogan though.
    Morning, everybody. By no means as cold today.

    The slogan strips down to 'Britain deserves better', though, and that could be quite potent.

    Because one can't say, surely, and certainly from this side of the fence, that Bad Dog's government shows us in a good light.
    Did Blair's government show us in a good light? So much ephemeral image fluff to strains of 'things can only get better', followed by a disastrous war and an economic crisis within ten years. Such a wasted opportunity.

    The only major crisis Blair had to deal with was 9/11. Johnson, in just a handful of years, has had Covid and Ukraine to deal with. IMV (and I know you'll disagree): he hasn't done too badly on either, and very well in some respects.
    Blair did not really have to deal with 9/11, and his response was probably counter-productive. Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense. We've followed the American lead on sanctions, and continued military cooperation that began under his predecessors. Afghanistan, well, least said, soonest mended. Covid and Brexit were the main crises Boris faced and is facing.
    "Similarly, Boris has not really had to deal with the Ukrainian invasion in any real sense."

    Wow. That seems rather disconnected with reality. Boris has been one of the strongest allies with Ukraine so far (as, to be fair, have the government since 2014/5).

    Note how Russia seems keen to put the UK first amongst their enemies? That's why.
    Russia thought Boris was their friend, that’s why.

    Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing. Which, along with clinging to his job, is the only thing the clown is good at.
    Yes, he thought the PM of the country that was actively training the military of the country he had attacked - and wanted to attack again - was a friend.

    FFS. I know some people hate Boris, but sometimes hatred can lead to a certain amount of irrationality...

    "Otherwise it’s mostly been posturing."

    Again, this seems rather an odd comment. It's been far from posturing, given the limits of what we can actually do. Compare, say, to Germany or France...
    The extent of Johnson's (and his party's) entanglement with Russian wealth is a slow burn story that will likely be running when the immediate military crisis is over. The Russians will have thought all that time grooming him might have been worth something; another misjudgement since the only reaction that would save his skin, at least in the short term, was to go over the top in the other direction.

    Training the Ukranians was a decision taken by the Coalition, which I doubt the clown was even aware of until it came to matter.
    Oh, come on. You are being ridiculous. Operation Orbital was extended in 2019 and expanded in 2020, well before this war. The idea Johnson knew nothing of it is a little ridiculous.
    No it isn't. You forget, I've spent time with him both in public and private. His lack of awareness as to where he is, what he's supposed to be doing and the history and background to anything is closer to zero than in anyone I've ever met.
    And you seem a rather impartial observer. Compare, say, with Nick's interactions with him, which seemed a lot fairer and nearer to the real Johnson (fnarr, fnarr).

    (Jesus. People's irrational hatred of Johnson is turning me, someone who was criticising him before most on here, and who has never voted for him, into a defended of him!)
    If it were just me, you might have a point.

    But I invite you to review what a whole stack of people who've interacted with Johnson - professionally and personally - have said, from his schooldays onwards, and to notice his lack of friends and allies.

    The only people who rate him are those who don't know him.
    Yes, someone who lacks friends and allies managed to get himself elected to a number of positions, and became PM. He did that through lacking friends and allies, obviously ...

    Many people in the 2000s were saying how friendly Blair and Brown were, yet we saw that was a lie even before Brown got power.

    Again, I stress I don't think Johnson is a good PM. But neither do I think he's the venal, nasty and lazy one his haters on here make him out to be. He's a flawed individual, but then so was Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, and May.
    Boris is singularly unsuited to this moment. We need someone able to deal with reality rather than spin lies.
This discussion has been closed.