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The Tories could be in for a tough time on May 5th – politicalbetting.com

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  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Boris will go full term 2024 👍
    And then win a 5th term 👍👍
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    I seem to remember they did get one emperor penguin egg back to london. And then it was lost

    Certainly it had a bathetic resolution. He was supposedly a broken man forever after
    He was, and fuck I feel sorry for him. He was a lifelong victim of very severe depression because he was forever thinking omg if I had just gone on another 30 miles from One Ton Camp I would have found and rescued them. True but only an issue because of Scott's monumental self aggrandizing incompetence.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911

    Boris will go full term 2024 👍
    Yes. I very much agree. Too many variables to call whether he'll win or lose then. But it is exactly those variables which make it extremely unlikely he'll go before
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913

    Even if there had been a window for a "Brexit: tick, Covid: tick" election (and it would have been taking the electoral mickey), Paterson and Parties closed the smallish window when it could have happened with the Conservatives ahead. (Even on the new boundaries, Conservatives need to be about 2 points ahead of Labour to unambiguously win). Now, the government has little choice but to swim through the river of sewage and stagflation and hope to reach the other bank sometime in 2024.

    The other thing to consider is that there are different sorts of hung parliament. Roughly, the sequence goes

    Conservative working majority - Conservatives unworkable majority - Coalition of Chaos 1.1 (Conservatives cut a deal with DUP) - Coalition of Chaos 2.0 (SNP needed for the centre-left to outvote Con + DUP) - Stablish coalition (SNP can be ignored; centre-left outvotes Con + DUP even when the SNP sits on their kilts) - Labour unworkable majority

    As long as the SNP have a blocking bloc, it's really hard to see Labour winning a majority. There are just too many seats blanked out. Even a stablish "ignore the jocks" coalition is a heck of an achievement. The fact it's even on the agenda, especially against Boring Old Starmer is a sign of how much of a horlicks Bozza is making of things.
    I think most of my posts are on this kind of subject, but I am of the opinion that a Labour majority (or stablish coalition) are necessary to secure the future of the Union. There are a large number (not sure how large, but large) of SNP supporters who see the route to another referendum through a Labour Government reliant on the SNP. If this route is blocked, then I think the constitutional issues begin to fall back. SNP loses some support, their vulnerabilities in Government become prominent and Scottish politics begins to look more pluralistic. But it's a narrow path, requiring not only the correct Parliamentary arithmetic but also the expectation in the electorate that Labour will not be dependent on the SNP to form a Government. If it even looks like the SNP are within a sniff of being able to leverage Labour, Middle England takes a shit and Labour are more likely to be deprived of the opportunity to form a Government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Jonathan said:

    The Tory offer ‘vote for us now, because we’ve trashed the economy and we’re worried you might notice’ is pretty unique.

    Honestly probably not that unique. It's the basis of lot of politicians the world over going for earlier elections if they can.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Leon said:

    Those twelve foot high, thirteen thousand year old stone penises BETTER BE WORTH IT

    Not a phrase I ever thought I’d use

    I think I'll use a lot, but as it happens it only crops up once or twice a week.
  • And then win a 5th term 👍👍
    Do you honestly think he's been a good PM?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,261
    IshmaelZ said:

    That seems a bit rubbish. If you select a jury on the basis that It's reelly important that you weren't abused as a child and then a juror after finding the D guilty as fuck says Yeah well I had the ass abused off me as a child, is how I relate to the victims here, how does that not be a miscarriage of justice?
    Just as a matter of interest, how many bottles of Cote du Rhone did you sink this evening?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Do you honestly think he's been a good PM?
    Better than Starmer would be
  • Better than Starmer would be
    Why?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Why?
    Cos Boris isn't Labour
  • Cos Boris isn't Labour
    I knew asking you would be a waste of time and it has been. Good evening.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    Just as a matter of interest, how many bottles of Cote du Rhone did you sink this evening?
    More than zero, less than 2. I stand by what I wrote though

    The juror in question was earlier given immunity from prosecution. He had asked to be identified by his first and middle names, Scotty David.

    When asked why he failed to disclose his past in the jury questionnaire when explicitly asked, he said it was an "inadvertent mistake".

    "This is one of the biggest mistakes I have made in my life," he added, saying he "flew through" the document and was "super-distracted" by everything going on around him in the jury room.

    On Friday, US Circuit Judge Alison Nathan said the juror had testified truthfully at a hearing in March over Maxwell's bid for a retrial.

    "His failure to disclose his prior sexual abuse during the jury selection process was highly unfortunate, but not deliberate," the judge said.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,261

    And then win a 5th term 👍👍
    Will he win third and fourth terms before that, or just go straight for the fifth term?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,310
    Unpopular said:

    I think most of my posts are on this kind of subject, but I am of the opinion that a Labour majority (or stablish coalition) are necessary to secure the future of the Union. There are a large number (not sure how large, but large) of SNP supporters who see the route to another referendum through a Labour Government reliant on the SNP. If this route is blocked, then I think the constitutional issues begin to fall back. SNP loses some support, their vulnerabilities in Government become prominent and Scottish politics begins to look more pluralistic. But it's a narrow path, requiring not only the correct Parliamentary arithmetic but also the expectation in the electorate that Labour will not be dependent on the SNP to form a Government. If it even looks like the SNP are within a sniff of being able to leverage Labour, Middle England takes a shit and Labour are more likely to be deprived of the opportunity to form a Government.
    Agreed. The ideal for Labour is to enter the next GE being able to say "voting Conservative strengthens the SNP", which would be true if the choice boils down to Labour led CofC or non chaotic Labour coalition. But a tough (maybe impossible) message to sell.

    As with many other issues in Britain, the outline of an answer is there (in this case, Devomax with a thistle on top, and opt-out Devo for parts of England that want it. Me, I'd go for the original ITV areas, so we can have a regional government covering Midlands weekdays and London weekends.) But warriors on both sides prevent a broadly acceptable answer being fleshed out.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    rcs1000 said:

    Will he win third and fourth terms before that, or just go straight for the fifth term?
    2010 2015 2017 2019 20?? 5 terms 👍
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,545
    IshmaelZ said:

    More than zero, less than 2. I stand by what I wrote though

    The juror in question was earlier given immunity from prosecution. He had asked to be identified by his first and middle names, Scotty David.

    When asked why he failed to disclose his past in the jury questionnaire when explicitly asked, he said it was an "inadvertent mistake".

    "This is one of the biggest mistakes I have made in my life," he added, saying he "flew through" the document and was "super-distracted" by everything going on around him in the jury room.

    On Friday, US Circuit Judge Alison Nathan said the juror had testified truthfully at a hearing in March over Maxwell's bid for a retrial.

    "His failure to disclose his prior sexual abuse during the jury selection process was highly unfortunate, but not deliberate," the judge said.
    So what?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IshmaelZ said:

    More than zero, less than 2. I stand by what I wrote though

    The juror in question was earlier given immunity from prosecution. He had asked to be identified by his first and middle names, Scotty David.

    When asked why he failed to disclose his past in the jury questionnaire when explicitly asked, he said it was an "inadvertent mistake".

    "This is one of the biggest mistakes I have made in my life," he added, saying he "flew through" the document and was "super-distracted" by everything going on around him in the jury room.

    On Friday, US Circuit Judge Alison Nathan said the juror had testified truthfully at a hearing in March over Maxwell's bid for a retrial.

    "His failure to disclose his prior sexual abuse during the jury selection process was highly unfortunate, but not deliberate," the judge said.
    "Highly unfortunate" FFS. Either it's bollocks or it isn't.

    Just to be clear I am not a Ghislaine fanboi, but here's a miscarriage of justice. Right here.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    I knew asking you would be a waste of time and it has been. Good evening.
    ❤️
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,545

    And then win a 5th term 👍👍
    Can I have some of what you're smoking? :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,261

    2010 2015 2017 2019 20?? 5 terms 👍
    He won the 2019 election, but he wasn't even an MP for the 2010 one.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Can I have some of what you're smoking? :lol:
    ❤️❤️
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,261
    IshmaelZ said:

    "Highly unfortunate" FFS. Either it's bollocks or it isn't.

    Just to be clear I am not a Ghislaine fanboi, but here's a miscarriage of justice. Right here.
    You sound pretty keen on Ghislaine to me.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Jesus wept, Oryx had 25 Russian tanks destroyed today and he says he still has a backlog of 180-200 vehicles to get through
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    So what?
    So, when this fuckwit was selected for the jury, it was life or death important whether he had been abused as a child. But now he has delivered a verdict which entails a life without parole sentence it turns out to be a Yeah, whatever issue. Which?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    MrEd said:

    Jesus wept, Oryx had 25 Russian tanks destroyed today and he says he still has a backlog of 180-200 vehicles to get through

    Men can be replaced, and artillery can pound people into the dirt, but how do they keep up their new plans if they are losing so many vehicles and other equipment? They have thousands, but they won't all be useful or even able to be sent into the quagmire.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,836
    MrEd said:

    Jesus wept, Oryx had 25 Russian tanks destroyed today and he says he still has a backlog of 180-200 vehicles to get through

    The “tactical withdrawal” North of Kyiv seems to have turned into something of a rout.

    I think most of us still expect the tide to turn at some point, but what if it doesn’t? What if Ukraine takes back territory in Donbas and is welcomed by the population? They’ve had a pretty ugly 8 years since 2014 after all.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    You sound pretty keen on Ghislaine to me.
    Because I think justice is justice? This isn't difficult: if someone plain lied on a point which everyone agreed was crucial to his eligibility to be on a jury, he was not eligible to be on the jury, surely?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,286
    IshmaelZ said:

    Because I think justice is justice? This isn't difficult: if someone plain lied on a point which everyone agreed was crucial to his eligibility to be on a jury, he was not eligible to be on the jury, surely?
    I agree. The case should be heard again IMO.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    TimS said:

    The “tactical withdrawal” North of Kyiv seems to have turned into something of a rout.

    I think most of us still expect the tide to turn at some point, but what if it doesn’t? What if Ukraine takes back territory in Donbas and is welcomed by the population? They’ve had a pretty ugly 8 years since 2014 after all.
    My gut feel is that it will be Russia that breaks, not Ukraine. There are obvious strains in their military performance and there is only some much any fighting force can take.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kle4 said:

    Men can be replaced, and artillery can pound people into the dirt, but how do they keep up their new plans if they are losing so many vehicles and other equipment? They have thousands, but they won't all be useful or even able to be sent into the quagmire.
    They can’t. Most of their reserve equipment is probably unusable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,261
    MrEd said:

    They can’t. Most of their reserve equipment is probably unusable.
    +1

    The idea that Russia has loads of really great tanks that it just chose not to use in the invasion is for the birds.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,743
    rcs1000 said:

    +1

    The idea that Russia has loads of really great tanks that it just chose not to use in the invasion is for the birds.
    One of their conspiracy theories was that Ukraine was going to attack them with biological weapons delivered by migratory birds, so perhaps they literally are for the birds.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,545
    IshmaelZ said:

    Because I think justice is justice? This isn't difficult: if someone plain lied on a point which everyone agreed was crucial to his eligibility to be on a jury, he was not eligible to be on the jury, surely?
    So what if he was abused? It's not like he procured girls for Epstein.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,616
    Will Smith resigns from the Academy. I said this would reverberate. And lo
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,286
    Russia complaining about being attacked by Ukraine is almost funny.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,261

    So what if he was abused? It's not like he procured girls for Epstein.
    Do you have any proof he did not procure girls for Epstein?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,286
    edited April 2022
    MrEd said:

    Jesus wept, Oryx had 25 Russian tanks destroyed today and he says he still has a backlog of 180-200 vehicles to get through

    Without wishing to diminish this welcome news too much, there needs to be a bit of caution over daily "losses" as the date of the loss is when the loss is verified rather than when it happens. So Russia retreating in some areas (which is partly tactical, partly not) allows losses that happened a while ago to be verified. Therefore, 25 losses confirmed today may well not be the same as 25 losses today.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Because I think justice is justice? This isn't difficult: if someone plain lied on a point which everyone agreed was crucial to his eligibility to be on a jury, he was not eligible to be on the jury, surely?
    The reason why there are as many as 12 jurors is precisely because people are flawed. If you pick away at any jury, you'll find one or two people who are eccentric, thick, dishonest, predisposed, or even who have done worse than the one in the dock. But you don't declare a mistrial simply on that basis, as you've got a fairly large panel and they need to deliver a unanimous verdict (or in some cases - although not this one - a 10-2 majority one).

    With all these matters, showing there was some kind of irregularity isn't enough so secure an acquittal or retrail. You need to show it makes the verdict unsafe.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    The reason why there are as many as 12 jurors is precisely because people are flawed. If you pick away at any jury, you'll find one or two people who are eccentric, thick, dishonest, predisposed, or even who have done worse than the one in the dock. But you don't declare a mistrial simply on that basis, as you've got a fairly large panel and they need to deliver a unanimous verdict (or in some cases - although not this one - a 10-2 majority one).

    With all these matters, showing there was some kind of irregularity isn't enough so secure an acquittal or retrail. You need to show it makes the verdict unsafe.
    Didn't he boast about how he swayed the jury during deliberations?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Those twelve foot high, thirteen thousand year old stone penises BETTER BE WORTH IT

    Not a phrase I ever thought I’d use

    Sounds like you're on busman's holiday?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,486

    Yet again I disagree with both of you. As my Dad explained why he liked the budget yesterday, it wasn’t a “populist” budget, it was fiscally literate in an inflationary situation to sit on the money for when growth is threatened and recession looming. Splashing the cash at this inflationary juncture, as a Lab Lib coalition assure us they would have done last week, would have been popular, in the short term, but would have made the medium term and longer term future for those “you were trying to help” even worse, wouldn’t it - with the money blown and inflation worse, and not the ammo to fight looming stagflation.

    It wasn’t “populist” hence Boris moaning about it. splurge at this moment makes it worse in long run, if it gets to stagflation, then spend some money you have saved, as stagflation is about demand not supply so you don’t tighten to deal with it but spend.

    It actually seems quite solid now the initial moaning is over.
    The strongest objection to the budget was not fiscal tightness, but that such help as there was in it ignored those who are least least well off. Who are going to be those worst impacted by energy prices rises.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,486
    Ukrainian forces found dozens of Ukrainian civilians murdered in cold blood by Russian forces in Bucha northwest of Kyiv today. Some of them had their hands tied behind their backs.
    https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1510039148299751424
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,486
    The Ukrainians really like their pets.

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1510050833630732291
    Ukrainian actor Alexei Surovtsev went under fire to Irpin (Kyiv Oblast) to save pets. We share with you a video of his brave acts

    The video really brings home the utter devastation of the suburbs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Nigelb said:

    Ukrainian forces found dozens of Ukrainian civilians murdered in cold blood by Russian forces in Bucha northwest of Kyiv today. Some of them had their hands tied behind their backs.
    https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1510039148299751424

    Lots of looting of homes too. This destroyed truck was carrying stolen washing machines.

    https://twitter.com/YARBONDARENKO/status/1510013188468842503?t=h82ADYZC1WQxogfuqpaW_Q&s=19
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633
    THIS THREAD HAS BEEN BURNT OUT OF ITS HOME.

    (And the new one has a brilliant photo......)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,486
    Cyclefree said:

    THIS THREAD HAS BEEN BURNT OUT OF ITS HOME.

    (And the new one has a brilliant photo......)

    What new one ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633
    Nigelb said:

    What new one ?
    This one - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/10412/is-a-new-law-really-necessary-politicalbetting-com#latest
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,367
    IshmaelZ said:

    "Highly unfortunate" FFS. Either it's bollocks or it isn't.

    Just to be clear I am not a Ghislaine fanboi, but here's a miscarriage of justice. Right here.
    It may be a mistrial - and actually I agree with you it should have been ruled as one - but I think it's more than stretching matters to call it a 'miscarriage of justice.'
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited April 2022
    Nigelb said:

    The strongest objection to the budget was not fiscal tightness, but that such help as there was in it ignored those who are least least well off. Who are going to be those worst impacted by energy prices rises.
    True.

    So I appreciate what my Dad said as true at same time appreciate it still leaves opposition room to attack it. But wrong to attack it from right of centre populist position as too many of our lame stream printed media are these days. Proper Conservative press would have appreciated the fiscal literacy.
    Tbf as PM but with a Christian’s Against Poverty head on, it’s actually a tough call if wanting to put a fire out can make it hotter and last longer with greater help at this moment.

    More than happy to be in disagreement with you on this one.
This discussion has been closed.