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The Tories could be in for a tough time on May 5th – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited April 2022 in General
imageThe Tories could be in for a tough time on May 5th – politicalbetting.com

National polls ask about general election voting intentions and not what people plan to do in the local elections. For a start there is a huge difference in turnout levels and in the outcomes in the latter will not impact on which party is in control at Westminster. However, as David Cowling always points out, they do offer a picture of the relative fortunes of the main political parties at those times.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    So...

    Labour flat. LDs up slightly. Cons down 5 points.

    BUT

    Others up a long, long way.

    Could be a good night for the Greens, or they could flatter to deceive.

    And a fair bit of the other could be Reform (who presumably won't actually stand anywhere), and which might return to the Tories.

    So, I'd expect modest Labour (200 councillors) and LD gains (30-50). Greens are a bit of a wildcard, but given the urban nature of the seats, they could do well and take some seats from both Labour and Cons.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    First
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    With energy prices skyrocketing I think the Greens might actually come under a bit of pressure to justify their insane energy policies.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited April 2022
    4th

    Your Friday PB puzzle. How many of these do you know?


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Interesting that there are ≈ twice as many polls these days as back in 2018.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Think these will be a good set for the Tories. Turnout will be pisspoor, therefore dominated by postals.
    There isn't much enthusiasm for either of the big two.
    I expect the LD's and Greens to do well in rural wealthy bits.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited April 2022
    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited April 2022
    MattW said:

    4th

    Your Friday PB puzzle. How many of these do you know?


    (It is the contributors to Greta's latest booky-wook.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Labour councillor in Wandsworth suspended after telling Rishi Sunak to 'go back to India'

    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1509914711676047368?s=20&t=e_qU2QS1Y-EPs5tw27IH7Q
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    MalcolmDunn said:

    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .

    There were quite a lot more councillors in total then, so it's a bit more complicated than that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Alternatively.....

    Just before the local elections, Boris is riding around Kyiv with Zelensky on a captured Russian tank, half a dozen Ukranians with NLAWS beside them. Zelensky says to the camera "We could not have done it without this guy. What a dude..."

    And a bunch of people go "You know what...he's a clown. But he's a clown who got the biggest call in decades right. When Germany and France were telling Ukraine they should throw in the towel, Boris said f*ck that - have our latest weapons to fight for freedom...."

    A month is a monstrous long time in politics....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    MalcolmDunn said:

    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .

    Indeed, Kinnock Labour won the 1990 local elections by 11% over Thatcher's Tories

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_Kingdom_local_elections
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .

    Indeed, Kinnock Labour won the 1990 local elections by 11% over Thatcher's Tories

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Although I can't help notice that the Conservatives ended the evening with more councillors (9,020) than the Labour Party (8,920).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2022
    Deleted.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    MalcolmDunn said:

    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .

    You are right, it seems to be a surprise to people on this site that the Governing Party's local councillors take a pasting during mid term elections
    Its what happens. Its even mentioned on Yes Minister.
    Labour should gain 100s of seats.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Not good news. Izyum (doesn't that sound as though it should be on the periodic table rather than a map?) has fallen and the Russian pincer movement is making progress:

    https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1509869887447093264

    Hoping that Russian withdrawals in the north will now free up UAF assets to harry the logistics lines for this Russian assault. Those lines still look vulnerable.

    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509886363495448579/photo/2
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    rottenborough said:


    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko
    ·
    3m
    This is it.
    Russian forces are not present in Kyiv Oblast anymore.

    Who imagined they were ever there?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited April 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .

    Indeed, Kinnock Labour won the 1990 local elections by 11% over Thatcher's Tories

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Although I can't help notice that the Conservatives ended the evening with more councillors (9,020) than the Labour Party (8,920).
    Mainly because of seats up which were concentrated in largely already Labour big cities. In 1991 when most seats were up Labour won more councillors overall than Major's Tories despite being only 3% ahead in the popular vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_United_Kingdom_local_elections
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    edited April 2022
    rottenborough said:


    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko
    ·
    3m
    This is it.
    Russian forces are not present in Kyiv Oblast anymore.

    I’m a little nervous tbh. Even Putin isn’t mad enough to nuke or gas his own troops but now they're gone...
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    Foss said:

    rottenborough said:


    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko
    ·
    3m
    This is it.
    Russian forces are not present in Kyiv Oblast anymore.

    I’m a little nervous tbh. Even Putin isn’t mad enough to nuke or gas his own troops but now they're gone...
    Yes he is. And in many ways it would be easier to blame it on Ukraine - especially the use of chemical weapons.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    NerysHughes said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .

    You are right, it seems to be a surprise to people on this site that the Governing Party's local councillors take a pasting during mid term elections
    Its what happens. Its even mentioned on Yes Minister.
    Labour should gain 100s of seats.
    In 1996, the Conservatives actually came third in the local elections, only picking up 518 councillors against 641 for the LDs and 1,744 for Labour.

    They only held control of half a dozen councils.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_Kingdom_local_elections
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    4th

    Your Friday PB puzzle. How many of these do you know?


    (It is the contributors to Greta's latest booky-wook.)
    Thought I was at 4, but it seems I was mistaking Peter Gleick for James Gleick.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited April 2022
    Labour not doing better as far as I can see except comparatively.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    This isn't a good sign is it?


    Jack Detsch Retweeted
    Sara Fischer
    @sarafischer
    ·
    2h
    Scoop: White @PressSec Jen Psaki planning to leave @WhiteHouse this spring for
    @MSNBC gig
    — Papers not signed yet, but plan is she'll host a show on Peacock & appear as a voice on dif shows on cable
    — She’s not replacing Maddow, which has been speculated

    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Gary_Burton said:



    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

    Miliband, of course, went to down to a tidy defeat after that 7% lead....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    geoffw said:

    rottenborough said:


    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko
    ·
    3m
    This is it.
    Russian forces are not present in Kyiv Oblast anymore.

    Who imagined they were ever there?

    Rumours of Russian presence in Kyiv Oblast were only ever Ukrainian disinformation, designed to blame Russia for damage inflicted on Ukraine by the Ukrainians themselves, and to make the Russian armed forces look weak and incompetent. Russian forces were never there and, even if they had been, would only have been part of a wickedly cunning feint. But they weren't there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    rottenborough said:

    This isn't a good sign is it?


    Jack Detsch Retweeted
    Sara Fischer
    @sarafischer
    ·
    2h
    Scoop: White @PressSec Jen Psaki planning to leave @WhiteHouse this spring for
    @MSNBC gig
    — Papers not signed yet, but plan is she'll host a show on Peacock & appear as a voice on dif shows on cable
    — She’s not replacing Maddow, which has been speculated

    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch

    They probably made her an offer she couldn't refuse.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    This isn't a good sign is it?


    Jack Detsch Retweeted
    Sara Fischer
    @sarafischer
    ·
    2h
    Scoop: White @PressSec Jen Psaki planning to leave @WhiteHouse this spring for
    @MSNBC gig
    — Papers not signed yet, but plan is she'll host a show on Peacock & appear as a voice on dif shows on cable
    — She’s not replacing Maddow, which has been speculated

    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch

    They probably made her an offer she couldn't refuse.
    Not unusual for press officers to leave after about a year.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gary_Burton said:



    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

    Miliband, of course, went to down to a tidy defeat after that 7% lead....
    Starmer is not Miliband - and Johnson has only proved himself against Livingstone & Corbyn both who carried a lot of baggage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gary_Burton said:



    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

    Miliband, of course, went to down to a tidy defeat after that 7% lead....
    And the Conservatives lost their majority after an eleven point lead in the 2017 locals, so... one probably can't read *too* much into them, except to say that the Labour Party is not exactly showing the kind of leads that Blair managed prior to 1997.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .

    Indeed, Kinnock Labour won the 1990 local elections by 11% over Thatcher's Tories

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    Although I can't help notice that the Conservatives ended the evening with more councillors (9,020) than the Labour Party (8,920).
    All council seats are not equal in terms of the size of the electorates.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Labour councillor in Wandsworth suspended after telling Rishi Sunak to 'go back to India'

    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1509914711676047368?s=20&t=e_qU2QS1Y-EPs5tw27IH7Q

    West Hill was 2 Lab 1 Ind in 2018 and is likely to be again, just that he will now be the 1 of the 3 Lab candidates that is not elected.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Given that two of the last 11 World Cup hosts have gone on to invade neighbours four years later, how worried should Qatar's neighbour's be?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    TimT said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    This isn't a good sign is it?


    Jack Detsch Retweeted
    Sara Fischer
    @sarafischer
    ·
    2h
    Scoop: White @PressSec Jen Psaki planning to leave @WhiteHouse this spring for
    @MSNBC gig
    — Papers not signed yet, but plan is she'll host a show on Peacock & appear as a voice on dif shows on cable
    — She’s not replacing Maddow, which has been speculated

    https://twitter.com/JackDetsch

    They probably made her an offer she couldn't refuse.
    Not unusual for press officers to leave after about a year.
    I think it's quite a stressful job, and I'm always amazed the CJ Cregg lasted as long as she did.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Presumably, Ukr has an interesting military dilemma now. If they reinforce the east/donbas area too much where the fighting will now take place they leave Kyiv exposed to a new Ru assault in a few weeks time?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited April 2022
    Infosys to close its office in Russia

    This is the company Rishi Sunak's wife has shares in
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Infosys to close its office in Russia

    This is the company Rishi Sunak's wife has shares in

    Too little too late. Now looks like damage limitation.

    Evidence he still has an eye on top job tho.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    4,5,6,7 in Quordle today, which was nice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Infosys to close its office in Russia

    This is the company Rishi Sunak's wife has shares in

    Too little too late. Now looks like damage limitation.

    Evidence he still has an eye on top job tho.
    Not clear that his wife is able to pull the strings there: the company is worth more than $100bn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Gary_Burton said:



    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

    Miliband, of course, went to down to a tidy defeat after that 7% lead....
    And the Conservatives lost their majority after an eleven point lead in the 2017 locals, so... one probably can't read *too* much into them, except to say that the Labour Party is not exactly showing the kind of leads that Blair managed prior to 1997.
    Both Blair and Cameron led by over 10% in the local elections before they became PM. So certainly Opposition leaders aiming for power want to do well in them
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited April 2022
    TimT said:

    Not good news. Izyum (doesn't that sound as though it should be on the periodic table rather than a map?) has fallen and the Russian pincer movement is making progress:

    https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1509869887447093264

    Hoping that Russian withdrawals in the north will now free up UAF assets to harry the logistics lines for this Russian assault. Those lines still look vulnerable.

    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509886363495448579/photo/2

    That's not great. One of the map-producing people on twitter - JominiW - said that Izium was the anchor for the whole Ukrainian defensive line in the Donbas. So I would guess they face having to make the decision to withdraw to another defensive line.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Gary_Burton said:



    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

    Miliband, of course, went to down to a tidy defeat after that 7% lead....
    And the Conservatives lost their majority after an eleven point lead in the 2017 locals, so... one probably can't read *too* much into them, except to say that the Labour Party is not exactly showing the kind of leads that Blair managed prior to 1997.
    Both Blair and Cameron led by over 10% in the local elections before they became PM. So certainly Opposition leaders aiming for power want to do well in them
    I agree that opposition leaders want to do well. I am just pointing out that - while they can be a good guide - they are far from infallible.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    rottenborough said:

    Presumably, Ukr has an interesting military dilemma now. If they reinforce the east/donbas area too much where the fighting will now take place they leave Kyiv exposed to a new Ru assault in a few weeks time?

    They should at least have some warning if Russian troops head back through Belarus to try attacking Kyiv again.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Sunak's wife is the daughter of the founder of Infosys.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Infosys to close its office in Russia

    This is the company Rishi Sunak's wife has shares in

    Too little too late. Now looks like damage limitation.

    Evidence he still has an eye on top job tho.
    Not clear that his wife is able to pull the strings there: the company is worth more than $100bn.
    OTOH her dad founded it and I think is still Chairman?

    And seeing how far corruption gets you with the current iteration of the Conservative party, if I were CEO of Infosys I'd be very happy with the idea of owning the next PM, to the extent of it affecting my decision making
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    MikeSmithson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Gary_Burton said:



    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

    Miliband, of course, went to down to a tidy defeat after that 7% lead....
    Starmer is not Miliband - and Johnson has only proved himself against Livingstone & Corbyn both who carried a lot of baggage.
    Keep backing Boris to fail - one of these times you might make some money....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Iran v USA!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Gary_Burton said:



    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

    Miliband, of course, went to down to a tidy defeat after that 7% lead....
    And the Conservatives lost their majority after an eleven point lead in the 2017 locals, so... one probably can't read *too* much into them, except to say that the Labour Party is not exactly showing the kind of leads that Blair managed prior to 1997.
    Both Blair and Cameron led by over 10% in the local elections before they became PM. So certainly Opposition leaders aiming for power want to do well in them
    I agree that opposition leaders want to do well. I am just pointing out that - while they can be a good guide - they are far from infallible.
    They are not perfect. However what you can say is that if an Opposition Leader is not winning the local elections comfortably, they have near zero chance of winning the next general election and becoming PM
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,890
    tlg86 said:

    Iran v USA!

    Not exactly a group of death for England. Good news for Boris?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    tlg86 said:

    Iran v USA!

    1998 all over again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited April 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Given that two of the last 11 World Cup hosts have gone on to invade neighbours four years later, how worried should Qatar's neighbour's be?

    Russia is one, who is the other one?

    Edit - The 1978 hosts are the other one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    MikeSmithson said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Gary_Burton said:



    HYUFD said:

    Though of course the Conservatives only got 35% NEV in the 2018 locals anyway. Matching their current poll rating but significantly below their national poll rating in 2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Ideally I think Starmer needs to match Miliband in 2012 when he achieved a 7% lead in the NEV, that would also be similar to John Smith's 39% to 31% in 1993 (although the LDs managed 25% then). I think a 5% lead in the NEV is a realistic benchmark for Labour.

    Miliband, of course, went to down to a tidy defeat after that 7% lead....
    Starmer is not Miliband - and Johnson has only proved himself against Livingstone & Corbyn both who carried a lot of baggage.
    Starmer is not Miliband.

    Damning with faint praise!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    UK R

    image
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/lewis-baston-local-elections-special/id1511909633?i=1000555109704

    Lewis Baston thinks Labour is more likely to gain Barnet than Wandsworth.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    rcs1000 said:

    4,5,6,7 in Quordle today, which was nice.

    3,4,5,7
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Calling Starmer Ed 2.0 has to be one of the laziest criticisms
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Cases summary

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    So Ukraine in England's group then.

    *Innocent Face*
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Deaths

    image
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Wordle 286 3/6*

    🟩⬜⬜⬜⬜
    🟩🟨🟨🟨⬜
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Not of general interest I accept, but @Anabobazina likes to be kept abreast of my progress
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    COVID Summary

    Perhaps the last for the mass testing era.....

    Cases - DOWN. R is below 1. We should see this feeding through in the ONS numbers, soon, we hope.
    In Hospital - UP
    Admissions - UP. R stable at 1.1 or so
    MV beds - UP
    Deaths - UP

    image
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    "CorrectHorseBattery"Calling Starmer Ed 2.0 has to be one of the laziest criticisms .

    I agree Ed was pretty poor but at least he offered alternative ideas when he was leader. Starmer hasn't really done that. Ed was also wise enough not to give David Lammy a senior shadow cabinet position. Cmpared to Starmer Ed was a giant.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Gary_Burton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour councillor in Wandsworth suspended after telling Rishi Sunak to 'go back to India'

    https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1509914711676047368?s=20&t=e_qU2QS1Y-EPs5tw27IH7Q

    West Hill was 2 Lab 1 Ind in 2018 and is likely to be again, just that he will now be the 1 of the 3 Lab candidates that is not elected.
    This candidate's margin of victory in 2018 was just 61 votes.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    edited April 2022
    Hello. Been taking a holiday from mithering about the impending threat of nuclear Armageddon. It's been rather nice.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Ukraine in England's group then.

    *Innocent Face*

    One reads that there has at least been the suggestion that the Ukrainian team might reassemble and train in England, perhaps play a few friendlies against Premier League sides to get match fit. I wonder if they'd be permitted to contest either of their play-offs at Wembley? 90% home support guaranteed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    MalcolmDunn said:

    "CorrectHorseBattery"Calling Starmer Ed 2.0 has to be one of the laziest criticisms .

    I agree Ed was pretty poor but at least he offered alternative ideas when he was leader. Starmer hasn't really done that. Ed was also wise enough not to give David Lammy a senior shadow cabinet position. Cmpared to Starmer Ed was a giant.

    Spot on

    No ideas
    No political nouse
    No charisma
    No Policies.
    No values that can't be bought
    No hope

    What could possibly go wrong
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    LostPassword said:

    TimT said:

    Not good news. Izyum (doesn't that sound as though it should be on the periodic table rather than a map?) has fallen and the Russian pincer movement is making progress:

    https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1509869887447093264

    Hoping that Russian withdrawals in the north will now free up UAF assets to harry the logistics lines for this Russian assault. Those lines still look vulnerable.

    https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509886363495448579/photo/2

    That's not great. One of the map-producing people on twitter - JominiW - said that Izium was the anchor for the whole Ukrainian defensive line in the Donbas. So I would guess they face having to make the decision to withdraw to another defensive line.
    TBF, I think he also said that Russia would have difficulties launching such a coordinated attack. He seems to think the Russians were use the Azerbaijan tactics from 2020. That might be fairly punchy for the Russians given troop morale / supply issues etc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MalcolmDunn said:

    "CorrectHorseBattery"Calling Starmer Ed 2.0 has to be one of the laziest criticisms .

    I agree Ed was pretty poor but at least he offered alternative ideas when he was leader. Starmer hasn't really done that. Ed was also wise enough not to give David Lammy a senior shadow cabinet position. Cmpared to Starmer Ed was a giant.

    Lammy has been consistently making sense ever since, I have to keep reminding myself of Marie Antoinette as the discoverer of radium

    speaking of which, if Putin has thyroid cancer it's quite possible he is having radioactive iodine therapy in which case it's very likely he is on corticosteroids for side effects, hence the moon face
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    pigeon said:

    Hello. Been taking a holiday from mithering about the impending threat of nuclear Armageddon. It's been rather nice.



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Ukraine in England's group then.

    *Innocent Face*

    One reads that there has at least been the suggestion that the Ukrainian team might reassemble and train in England, perhaps play a few friendlies against Premier League sides to get match fit. I wonder if they'd be permitted to contest either of their play-offs at Wembley? 90% home support guaranteed.
    If the Scots or Welsh had any humanity about them they'd stand aside for Ukraine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    In the mid terms under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives lost many hundreds of seats at every local election. Unless Starmer achieves as least as good results as Kinnock did Johnson should be very pleased indeed .

    Indeed, Kinnock Labour won the 1990 local elections by 11% over Thatcher's Tories

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    That was one of the reasons she was chucked our by her party wasn't it? That she had turned from an election winner to a liability.

    I was in New Zealand at the time so might be a little misinformed.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Not getting ahead of ourselves, one tiny bit, but the theoretical per ranking knockout route might be:

    Senegal
    France (in theory out)...
    Belgium (in theory out again)
    Brazil

    Other combinations are available.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    pigeon said:

    Hello. Been taking a holiday from mithering about the impending threat of nuclear Armageddon. It's been rather nice.



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Ukraine in England's group then.

    *Innocent Face*

    One reads that there has at least been the suggestion that the Ukrainian team might reassemble and train in England, perhaps play a few friendlies against Premier League sides to get match fit. I wonder if they'd be permitted to contest either of their play-offs at Wembley? 90% home support guaranteed.
    If the Scots or Welsh had any humanity about them they'd stand aside for Ukraine.
    But if Ukraine is in England's group, don't England have to do that as well first?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Malmesbury said:

    COVID Summary

    Perhaps the last for the mass testing era.....

    Cases - DOWN. R is below 1. We should see this feeding through in the ONS numbers, soon, we hope.
    In Hospital - UP
    Admissions - UP. R stable at 1.1 or so
    MV beds - UP
    Deaths - UP

    image

    Case data from testing is meaningless now. I note the ONS had last week at over 5 million cases across the nation.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    bigjohnowls said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    "CorrectHorseBattery"Calling Starmer Ed 2.0 has to be one of the laziest criticisms .

    I agree Ed was pretty poor but at least he offered alternative ideas when he was leader. Starmer hasn't really done that. Ed was also wise enough not to give David Lammy a senior shadow cabinet position. Cmpared to Starmer Ed was a giant.

    Spot on

    No ideas
    No political nouse
    No charisma
    No Policies.
    No values that can't be bought
    No hope

    What could possibly go wrong
    Abuses his position to grandstand about his private hobbyhorse, the state of the UK, instead of concentrating on Palestine
    Name is an anagram of Rothschild. Nearly.
    Supports Ukraine against Russia.
    Never been seen at a STW rally
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    pigeon said:

    Hello. Been taking a holiday from mithering about the impending threat of nuclear Armageddon. It's been rather nice.



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Ukraine in England's group then.

    *Innocent Face*

    One reads that there has at least been the suggestion that the Ukrainian team might reassemble and train in England, perhaps play a few friendlies against Premier League sides to get match fit. I wonder if they'd be permitted to contest either of their play-offs at Wembley? 90% home support guaranteed.
    If the Scots or Welsh had any humanity about them they'd stand aside for Ukraine.
    But if Ukraine is in England's group, don't England have to do that as well first?
    England v Wales/Scotland/Ukraine is the third game, so the plan has to be to beat Iran and USA and leave the third game moot.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    pigeon said:

    Hello. Been taking a holiday from mithering about the impending threat of nuclear Armageddon. It's been rather nice.



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Ukraine in England's group then.

    *Innocent Face*

    One reads that there has at least been the suggestion that the Ukrainian team might reassemble and train in England, perhaps play a few friendlies against Premier League sides to get match fit. I wonder if they'd be permitted to contest either of their play-offs at Wembley? 90% home support guaranteed.
    If the Scots or Welsh had any humanity about them they'd stand aside for Ukraine.
    But if Ukraine is in England's group, don't England have to do that as well first?
    That's different. England and Ukraine could both qualify from that group, so the problem doesn't arise.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Foxy said:

    Malmesbury said:

    COVID Summary

    Perhaps the last for the mass testing era.....

    Cases - DOWN. R is below 1. We should see this feeding through in the ONS numbers, soon, we hope.
    In Hospital - UP
    Admissions - UP. R stable at 1.1 or so
    MV beds - UP
    Deaths - UP

    image

    Case data from testing is meaningless now. I note the ONS had last week at over 5 million cases across the nation.
    One wonders how long cases can keep rolling along at ridiculous levels like 1 in 12. At that rate, in crude terms, if nobody had ever had the wretched disease we could still all catch it in three months - but clearly a very large fraction of the populace already has, and I'd be astonished if a significant percentage were being reinfected on a monthly basis.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    How many troops have the Ukrainians managed to encircle north of Kiev? It would be a shame if they all got away over the border to fight another day.

    One thing I don't understand about prisoner swaps. Why allow it if the troops are just going to head back out to the battlefield?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    pigeon said:

    Hello. Been taking a holiday from mithering about the impending threat of nuclear Armageddon. It's been rather nice.



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Ukraine in England's group then.

    *Innocent Face*

    One reads that there has at least been the suggestion that the Ukrainian team might reassemble and train in England, perhaps play a few friendlies against Premier League sides to get match fit. I wonder if they'd be permitted to contest either of their play-offs at Wembley? 90% home support guaranteed.
    If the Scots or Welsh had any humanity about them they'd stand aside for Ukraine.
    But if Ukraine is in England's group, don't England have to do that as well first?
    We'll do that.

    We'll beat USA!USA!USA! and Iran and since we'll have qualified and Ukraine would be our final match we'd take one for the team and lose 9 nil or something against Ukraine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited April 2022
    And I remember 2010 and the EASY group England had.

    England
    Algeria
    Slovenia
    Yanks.

    National embarrassment we finished second in that group, greatest humiliation since Suez.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    Same

    Desperately trying to figure out if any of the games will produce funny words on the score box when teams play each other.

    https://twitter.com/Mendelpol/status/1509944199587770370
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    edited April 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    pigeon said:

    Hello. Been taking a holiday from mithering about the impending threat of nuclear Armageddon. It's been rather nice.



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Ukraine in England's group then.

    *Innocent Face*

    One reads that there has at least been the suggestion that the Ukrainian team might reassemble and train in England, perhaps play a few friendlies against Premier League sides to get match fit. I wonder if they'd be permitted to contest either of their play-offs at Wembley? 90% home support guaranteed.
    If the Scots or Welsh had any humanity about them they'd stand aside for Ukraine.
    But if Ukraine is in England's group, don't England have to do that as well first?
    We'll do that.

    We'll beat USA!USA!USA! and Iran and since we'll have qualified and Ukraine would be our final match we'd take one for the team and lose 9 nil or something against Ukraine.
    Just take the knee for the 90 mins and let UKR run riot, racist gammons (who were all apparently Russian bots anyway) ragin', job's a good un.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FrankBooth said:

    How many troops have the Ukrainians managed to encircle north of Kiev? It would be a shame if they all got away over the border to fight another day.

    One thing I don't understand about prisoner swaps. Why allow it if the troops are just going to head back out to the battlefield?

    Well, in Hornblower, the exchangees give their word of honour as gentlemen and officers not to return to the fray

    But Private Ryan for anyone who has bothered to watch it all the way through is an awful warning against clemency
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    bigjohnowls said:

    MalcolmDunn said:

    "CorrectHorseBattery"Calling Starmer Ed 2.0 has to be one of the laziest criticisms .

    I agree Ed was pretty poor but at least he offered alternative ideas when he was leader. Starmer hasn't really done that. Ed was also wise enough not to give David Lammy a senior shadow cabinet position. Cmpared to Starmer Ed was a giant.

    Spot on

    No ideas
    No political nouse
    No charisma
    No Policies.
    No values that can't be bought
    No hope

    What could possibly go wrong
    A 5 point lead. How much did Corbyn lose by again
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Think we will see a big jump in Oryx' numbers in the next few days as Ukrainian troops move through the areas vacated by the Russians to the North East and North West of Kyiv, and around Sumy and Chernihiv.

    The tank numbers have already jumped 18 in the last 12 or so hours.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    edited April 2022
    Apologies if already posted, but Sunday's Cricket World Cup Final is going to be on free to air TV.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/60953084
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    FrankBooth said:

    How many troops have the Ukrainians managed to encircle north of Kiev? It would be a shame if they all got away over the border to fight another day.

    One thing I don't understand about prisoner swaps. Why allow it if the troops are just going to head back out to the battlefield?

    I can imagine that Russian POWs would be rather demoralised. Ukrainian POWs would (if uninjured) be rather keen to get back into the battle. The former have been lied to consistently through this mess. The latter are defending their homeland.

    Like the Royal Marines who were at the fall of the Falkland Islands. AFAICR the Argentinians returned them to Britain, and many of them went straight back out on the Task Force... (*)

    (*) Unless my memory is failing me?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    IshmaelZ said:

    Wordle 286 3/6*

    🟩⬜⬜⬜⬜
    🟩🟨🟨🟨⬜
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Not of general interest I accept, but @Anabobazina likes to be kept abreast of my progress

    I was also a 3, which was helped by my first two words being (as it normally the case) 'print' and 'mouse'.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    As a Scotland fan, I heartily endorse the plan of increasing the time between the start of the tournament and the draw to include the whole qualifying campaign, therefore always getting us into the hat for a major tournament.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    Cracking opening game of the World Cup i see- can't wait
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Wordle 286 3/6*

    🟩⬜⬜⬜⬜
    🟩🟨🟨🟨⬜
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Not of general interest I accept, but @Anabobazina likes to be kept abreast of my progress

    I was also a 3, which was helped by my first two words being (as it normally the case) 'print' and 'mouse'.
    Wordle 286 3/6

    ⬜⬜🟨⬜🟨
    🟩🟩🟨⬜⬜
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Also three. Luck rather than ability though.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Foxy said:

    Malmesbury said:

    COVID Summary

    Perhaps the last for the mass testing era.....

    Cases - DOWN. R is below 1. We should see this feeding through in the ONS numbers, soon, we hope.
    In Hospital - UP
    Admissions - UP. R stable at 1.1 or so
    MV beds - UP
    Deaths - UP

    image

    Case data from testing is meaningless now. I note the ONS had last week at over 5 million cases across the nation.
    While I don’t doubt that there is a lot of it about, I getting a bit suspicious of the ons data. Specifically they are 5 million who would test positive, not 5 million who would be unwell. And as they are using Pcr on random people, how much asymptomatic and recovered people are included in these 5 million? We’ve been specifically warned about using PCR after infection for a decent period, yet are the ons excluding such people?
    I had a great chat with a pharmacist colleague who works at one of the Bristol hospitals. Very illuminating. Most interesting was her description of the first wave, where she led a team in icu. Although it was grim, it was also a great time of unity against one issue, with everyone pulling together. Now the problem is people off sick, the nhs trying to do its job again for all patients and the staff just being knackered. She said that the anti virals have been game changers for keeping the vulnerable out of hospital.

    My guess is that cases will crash soon, and the pressures will ease, but by god the hospitals need a break.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Five hours delay at a Turkish airport due to check-in meltdown. Not recommended
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Malmesbury said:

    COVID Summary

    Perhaps the last for the mass testing era.....

    Cases - DOWN. R is below 1. We should see this feeding through in the ONS numbers, soon, we hope.
    In Hospital - UP
    Admissions - UP. R stable at 1.1 or so
    MV beds - UP
    Deaths - UP

    image

    Not sure we need daily updates anymore, they only serve to negatively affect the mental health of the nation. Most people are trying to move on. A daily scoreboard hardly helps with that aim.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Wordle 286 3/6*

    🟩⬜⬜⬜⬜
    🟩🟨🟨🟨⬜
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Not of general interest I accept, but @Anabobazina likes to be kept abreast of my progress

    I was also a 3, which was helped by my first two words being (as it normally the case) 'print' and 'mouse'.
    In that order? Therefore throwing away a green from print?

    I got a 2 the other day, SAMEY - NYMPH. People say 2s have to be flukes but I don't think there are any other candidates
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    A phenomenally hard WORLDLE today

    I got it tho. On the last go. A total desperate stab in the dark. Ooof


    https://worldle.teuteuf.fr/
This discussion has been closed.