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New French Presidential poll has Le Pen just 6% behind – politicalbetting.com

in less than 2 weeks time there will be the first round of voting in the French presidential election which decides which two of the 12 contenders go through to the final two a fortnight later.
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The problem with De Gaulle is that he made this look easy.
Much as George Bush Senior made war in the Middle East look like a good idea - quick, easy and get the Arabs and Israelis on the same side - what's not to like?
Will Smith laughing at Chris Rock's joke then realizing Jada ain't happy
https://twitter.com/mash_manuel/status/1508338383562723333?s=20&t=yg_XBRDzVhH1t_7_5xQVog
JEFF STELLING’S STAYING ON FOR ANOTHER SEASON
https://twitter.com/secondtierpod/status/1508460617870548993?s=20&t=1xAbE-d1cSNGWZ4rujyjmQ
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Westminster Voting Intention (27 Mar):
Labour 37% (-3)
Conservative 35% (–)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
Green 5% (-2)
Scottish National Party 6% (+2)
Reform UK 5% (+3)
Other 3% (+2)
Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
And I thought it'd be 60:40 to him. I.e. a smaller victory than last time, but still a relatively comfortable one.
But it's now looking a little different.
People don't like thinking about difficult things and look for someone who can provide simple, black & white answers instead.
https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=sNbkh_17vw0VeuxIU7AbFw
Poisoning the well of the negotiations. Literally.
On a serious note - this may be infighting on the Russian side. A deal might be fatal to memebers of a faction in Russia.
Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.
https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580
If you know you can get away with it as well, it becomes easier to justify to yourself (Hollywood is famous for how some arsehole directors treat actors and crew terribly, yet people still work with them and praise them). It becomes a power thing - no consequences for acting like that, so why would you change?
While the idea of a time limited lease sounds interesting, and who knows may come off, its certainly imaginative.
But, for a start it it does not match the bits Russia holds and want, which might change. at the moment he almost has the land bridge which is not in the Dombras, but does not hold half of the Dombras.
Also the Russian Naval base in the Crimea was on a time limited lease, (till 2019 I think) that did not go well. so not a good reputation for that in Ukraine. and it provides a good incentive for Russia to expel anybody who is not a die-hard Putin loyalist, which is not good
In the first round Le Pen is second behind Macron on 18.5%, Melenchon third on 15.5% and Zemmour and Pecresse a distant 4th and 5th on 11.5% and 10.5%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508451348282580997?s=20&t=3h4f4CntB_sPO68h17dw7w
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1508454330730438661?s=20&t=3h4f4CntB_sPO68h17dw7w
It's really not a complicated issue, despite people bizarrely deciding to pretend it is.
We teach this stuff to children for crying out loud, and we think adults must resort to the level of an unthinking beast? That people are pretending to believe (or actually believe) being angry justifies anything you want basically, makes this one of the most depressing series of PB threads ever simply because of how stupidly lacking in logic and proportion it is.
That or do away with urinals and make all toilets unisex.
SNP: 58
CON: 17
LAB: 14
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-27-march-2022/
Must be because of their stellar performance on ferry procurement - up to £400 million for ferries budgeted at £95 - the MOD will be along to find out how they did it! (Though as the MOD don't have local elections to fight, Party Conferences to hold and Independence supporters to award without due diligence, not all of it may be applicable...)
https://notesonnationalism.substack.com/p/its-time-to-call-it-corruption
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=35&LAB=37&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1508484446365925387
Anyone who actually believes that "violence is never the answer" is a mug.
Honestly, try telling a victim of mental torture by their spouse that "violence is never the answer". For a lot of people who are being bullied violence or suicide slowly become the only available options and sadly many victims take the suicide route because people like you keep up the idea that "violence is never the answer" when sometimes it is.
"Violence is never the answer" is an extremely dangerous fallacy not the truth. Violence is a last resort is fairer.
I think he was right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
I'm honestly shocked that PB is home to such a large number of victim blamers (and I loathe using that term, though it feels correct in this instance). People shouldn't suffer abuse silently as so many on here are suggesting.
It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1508487590982430729
Angling to get it chucked out of the G20?
We have womens aid shelters and a variety of bodies set up to assist them. The police are much, much better at this too than they were. Certainly in Scotland, anyone even accused of assaulting a partner will be detained in the cells overnight, giving the partner an opportunity to leave if they so wish.
So there is no excuse for picking up a knife, for example, instead. Of course such treatment can be significant mitigation but it doesn't excuse using the knife unless you are under immediate threat of serious harm.
Now, originally the goal was to reincorporate Ukraine back into Russia. That's now off the cards.
But Putin is probably thinking along the lines you outline: land bridge, official recognition, no NATO.
The problem he has is that the Ukrainians are winning right now. (And by winning, I mean that Russian troops and munitions are being burnt through at an unsustainable rate.) And so long as the Ukrainians wish to keep fighting, then those goals are unavailable to Putin.
To win, Putin needs the Ukrainian leadership to want peace. And I don't think he has the forces available to offer up a 'it will be worse for you' scenario to the Ukrainians. Indeed, right now, Putin is in the unenviable scenario of having to take troops and equipment from other parts of the Russian Empire to even stand still in Ukraine.
In reality Iran, the Netherlands and Switzerland should be in the G20 in their place
Still no Tory poll lead for three months and 22 days...
I haven't, but you're assuming something that probably isn't in there.
Refusing to resort to violence does not mean you do not fight back. I am no pacifist.
Biden to announce ‘billionaire minimum income tax’ in budget plan
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/28/biden-announces-billionaire-minimum-income-tax
Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at talks in Kyiv earlier this month, his spokesperson says.
The Chelsea FC owner - who has now recovered - reportedly suffered sore eyes and skin peeling.
Two Ukrainian peace negotiators were also reported to have been affected.
The Wall Street Journal reported claims the alleged poisoning was orchestrated by hardliners in Russia who wanted to sabotage the talks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60904676
Democrats pushing tax rises on the rich as usual
Who will think of the multi-billionaires?
https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_by_country_e.htm
As we are now outside the EU, we will (inevitably) accumulate WTO complaints from a lot of countries, and we will complain against a lot of countries. Because that is the nature of international relations.
I know that.
Others seem to think it’s some kind of personal vendetta.
Sometimes our interests will intersect. Sometimes they will collide.
It’s an income tax that’s levied on the very very wealthy.
The average income tax paid by these plutocrats was about 9% apparently.
HYUFD talking out of his hat as usual.
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HSBC has edited the research publications produced by its analysts to remove references to a “war” in Ukraine, according to a report, while continuing to operate in Russia.
Language in several reports has been softened by committees at HSBC which review externally published research and client communications, such as changing the word “war” to “conflict”, the Financial Times reported.
The intervention has raised complaints from some staff, according to the report.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hsbc-cut-references-to-ukraine-war-from-research-papers-report-says-5tbczhztr